Cold Spell Discussion: Heavy Snow this evening especially in eastern/southern areas

ninebeanrows

A new thread for the weekend.

Could be an exciting one with many potential snow events.

A big one comes tomorrow night and has all the ingredients to give a real treat to a large part of the country.

It swings into the west coast tomorrow evening and pushes eastwards towards midnight before spinning back into the east coast Sunday morning and clearing into Britain.

At this point accumulation amounts are uncertain but could be decent, 10cms in places, perhaps more in areas of the east.

Meanwhile tonight sees continued risk of snow showers right across the country before they die back to coastal districts of the west and north by midnight.

Tomorrows Precipitation Forecast

WolfeIRE

Munster,

If the precip arrives in middle of the day it will fall as rain/sleet in most areas. It should turn increasingly to snow as the evening progresses.

Met.ie radar is back.

cherryghost

good to see the potential might be around sunset onwards. should be very interesting to watch

darkman2

Whilst I have no doubt many Southern areas will see snow tomorrow night just a word of caution. The models are very fickle atm even 48 hrs out...

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

Whilst I have no doubt many Southern areas will see snow tomorrow night just a word of caution. The models are very fickle atm even 48 hrs out...

Very true. Wasn't it the GFS this time yesterday showing a widespread snow event for the central part of the country tonight, as well as the NAE model. No sign at all of that today.

eoinor

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Munster,

If the precip arrives in middle of the day it will fall as rain/sleet in most areas. It should turn increasingly to snow as the evening progresses.

Met.ie radar is back.

And now Dublin is down!

WolfeIRE

some very heavy showers moving towards kerry and clare
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

ninebeanrows

WolfeIRE wrote: »

some very heavy showers moving towards kerry and clare
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Yep thats apart of that feature moving across the south and into Wales and England later.

Will move from Clare across to Wexford and south of that line. Giving a period of snow.

arctictree

I am eagerly waiting the ECM 12z because the 00z shows the precip as barely brushing the south coast:



Big difference in the charts at this stage.

Harps

Guessing theres not much chance of anything significant here tonight? Its been snowing heavily all day but its cleared up in the past hour and hasnt been a sign of anything ever since

Deep Easterly

Galway Docks cam looking WSW. Dark to the west but showers out to sea don't look that impressive, although they are too far away to tell from that point + it's getting dark.

gugsy

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Galway Docks cam looking WSW. Dark to the west but showers out to sea don't look that impressive, although they are too far away to tell from that point + it's getting dark.

Still no precipitation here in the city heavy clouds to the south west over clare/burren. Clouds building northwest on radar it looks like it will hit in the next half hour to hour could be prolonged. Precipitation most likely rain near the coast as it hits colder air futher inland will turn to sleet and snow and possibly wintery near coasts as temp falls during the night. could be a white one by morn.

JanuarySnowstor

Well a very interesting 5 or 6 days coming up.
First of all the easy part, night time temps look exceptionally cold for late February with mins between -3 to -7C. If we hadn't experienced incredible cold in Jan this would really stand out, trouble is we are seasoned cold campaigners this year.
Now regarding ppn, the first chance will be tonight for the South and West as showers move across giving snowfall, pbly lying where they persist as WC says on a line from Clare to Wexford.
Tomorrow evening looks like the main course though as widespread snowfall is now looking very likely with Southern and Eastern areas most at risk. This has all the ingredients of a Polar low and as such is one.
Beyond that looks like bitterly cold Sunday with widespread ice Sunday night. So in summary a wintry wkd ahead with plenty potential.
My favourite phrase in situ's like this is "it's likely to snow so it pbly wont":D

Harps

Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall

ninebeanrows

Speaking of Polar lows, i have spotted one to our northwest.

Just beginning to develop, doubt its our feature for tomorrow though.

Just to the right of the time here.

Su Campu

I think we're seeing more agreement now with the models regarding tomorrow evening's system, with southern and central parts seeing the bulk of the precipitation, which won't be very much it must be said. But it should give snow down to around 50m on its leading edge, rising to around 100m as it crosses the country. The GFS has really cold air setting in behind it for Sunday, but with much warmer air aloft arriving from the south, shower activity should be heaviest in the northwest, where 500hPa temperatures will be around 14°C colder than the south, and indeed a little further north will be down to -41 or -42°C, a real breeding ground for polar lows. Excellent lapse rates and a good synoptic setup could produce something to our north, but IF it did, this low would be unlikely to affect us. But this is the nearest we've got to such cold air this winter, so while we've been dissapointed many times before, this is a good opportunity to get up close to a polar low....maybe the closest we'll ever get! :rolleyes:



Monday looks like being a good opportunity for those Waterford people who've been hard done by before as the more frontal snowfall looks likely to clip the southeast.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes WC that does indeed look like a Polar feature / low.
Expect the next 24hours to deliver snow to many, but history tells me it will happen at a different timing to the models suggest.
Bitterly cold air very very close to us has to breed Polar lows;)

byhookorbycrook

hope not, have a three hour drive from Carlow to Midleton and back to do tomorrow.

darkman2

ECM the latest model to bring Monday's snow event closer. Only a few miles in it now literally and the East and Southeast have a snow event.




Tomorrow night is not registering anything particularly exciting (unless of course the ECM is clearing the precipitation off the East coast by midnight in which case lowering the risk of snow at sea level generallly)

nacho libre

yes, but su campu seems to indicate that any polar low would miss us. still, hopefully we'd get plenty of snow showers pushing well inland.

JanuarySnowstor

Trouble is darkman we need heavy ppn for it to be snow on Monday
Imo it will be rain if it just skirts past us as the ppn would then be light.
Certainly one to watch though and not a bad dessert after tomorrows snow event:D

munsterlegend

Harps wrote: »

Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall

what did i tell you earlier that we had heard enough about snow in donegal?!

JS what do you think of our snow chances in cork? 2-5cm? more or none?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just having a nice little snow shower in Naas :pac:

Pangea

munsterlegend wrote: »

what did i tell you earlier that we had heard enough about snow in donegal?!

JS what do you think of our snow chances in cork? 2-5cm? more or none?

We are getting tiread of hearing about the lack of snow in Cork, (this is a snow thread by the way) :P

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

We are getting tiread of hearing about the lack of snow in Cork, (this is a snow thread by the way) :P

i think waterford is de real capital for no snow! we did well in january considering what usually happens. fingers crossed we get something over the weekend. have seen things go wrong so often that i believe it when i see it at this stage.

pauldry

Just studying my DP in SLigo and it rarely has reached 0 this yr. Dont know how this graph will look but testing. As for snow bring it on im ready.

snow ghost

Harps wrote: »

Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall

According to Postman Pat & his black and white cat, constant snow - of the we're making everyone else insanely jealous variety - in Donegal in late February, is a sign that it is going to rain constantly there throughout the entire summer while the rest of the country basks in Australian like endless sunshine. :P

Not

tinners wrote: »

Just having a nice little snow shower in Naas :pac:

Lucky you. It's piddling rain in Dublin :rolleyes:

DOCARCH

Snowing here atm. Wet. 2.0c DP 0.3c

Pangea

snow ghost wrote: »

According to Postman Pat & his black and white cat, constant snow - of the we're making everyone else insanely jealous variety - in Donegal in late February, is a sign that it is going to rain constantly there throughout the entire summer while the rest of the country basks in Australian like endless sunshine. :P

Good job I leave the country every summer to bask in hotter conditions :pac:

thomasj

Heavy snow falling at lamb doyles!

Not

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snowing here atm. Wet. 2.0c DP 0.3c

What a difference a few miles and 100 feet makes

Vudgie

Some snow in Dublin 16 pretty wet though so far more to come I'd say though as it is early yet

Not

Vudgie wrote: »

Some snow in Dublin 16 pretty wet though so far more to come I'd say though as it is early yet

Looking at the radar it looks like just an isolated shower

snow ghost

Pangea wrote: »

Good job I leave the country every summer to bask in hotter conditions :pac:

Not this year my friend... ferry's won't be able to sail in all that rain and there'll be floods at Donegal airport, preventing planes taking off... and the rest of the country's airports will be closed due to their tarmac melting. :pac:

The only way you're escaping all that Donegal rain this summer is on Noah's Arc!

munsterlegend

snow ghost wrote: »

Not this year my friend... ferry's won't be able to sail in all that rain and there'll be floods at Donegal airport, preventing planes taking off... and the rest of the country's airports will be closed due to their tarmac melting. :pac:

The only way you're escaping all that Donegal rain this summer is on Noah's Arc!

its like the truman show! the radar has some beefy showers coming in from the west..no reports yets of any snow though from around there so maybe its just rain.

Not

snow ghost wrote: »

Not this year my friend... ferry's won't be able to sail in all that rain and there'll be floods at Donegal airport, preventing planes taking off... and the rest of the country's airports will be closed due to their tarmac melting. :pac:

The only way you're escaping all that Donegal rain this summer is on Noah's Arc!

or maybe through the stargate in hangar 6

munsterlegend

Not wrote: »

or maybe through the stargate in hangar 6

but he won't be able to get to hangar 6 due to the floods in donegal?

Not

munsterlegend wrote: »

but he won't be able to get to hangar 6 due to the floods in donegal?

swim ??

munsterlegend

Not wrote: »

swim ??

if the ferry won't even be able to sail swimming would be a major problem as well!

looking at the report at 8 am on met eireann looks like those showers are of rain in shannon/valentia so far.

Su Campu

2000Z

Donegal Airport - Heavy sleet +1/0

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

2000Z

Donegal Airport - Heavy sleet +1/0

what are the airports saying for tomorrow su?

cork airport in particular!

Su Campu

munsterlegend wrote: »

what are the airports saying for tomorrow su?

cork airport in particular!

The 17Z TAFs don't show much at all really, though they're only valid up to 6pm tomorrow. The 23Z TAFs will be of more use later tonight.

Here's Cork's 17Z, showing light sleet showers from 3pm tomorrow...

EICK 191700Z 1918/2018 29010KT 9999 FEW020 TEMPO 1918/1920 SCT018CB BECMG 1919/1922 28005KT PROB30 TEMPO 2006/2010 0400 FG BKN001 BECMG 2009/2012 20006KT BECMG 2012/2015 19012KT TEMPO 2015/2018 5000 -SHRASN SCT006 BKN015CB

200motels

munsterlegend wrote: »

i think waterford is de real capital for no snow! we did well in january considering what usually happens. fingers crossed we get something over the weekend. have seen things go wrong so often that i believe it when i see it at this stage.

Your right there we are at last number one for something.

AntiRip

WOW. Just looked outside here. Heaviest snow I've seen, even heavier than the xmas period. I'm in N. Kerry

Su Campu

2030Z Regional Airports

Donegal Light sleet +2/+1
Sligo Light rain +2/0
Kerry Light rain +2/+1
Waterford Clear 0/-2

AntiRip

Su Campu wrote: »

2030Z Regional Airports

Donegal Light sleet +2/+1
Sligo Light rain +2/0
Kerry Light rain +2/+1
Waterford Clear 0/-2

Tom Cruises Left Nut

AntiRip wrote: »

Should clean up those cables, someone could trip :pac:

munsterlegend

AntiRip wrote: »

WOW. Just looked outside here. Heaviest snow I've seen, even heavier than the xmas period. I'm in N. Kerry

send it to your good neighbours in cork! looks like they are losing pace as they move east as per usual.

snaps

tinners wrote: »

Should clean up those cables, someone could trip :pac:

Dont worry, they are just N Kerry ESB cables!!!!!!!!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

snaps wrote: »

Dont worry, they are just N Kerry ESB cables!!!!!!!!!

Phew !! I was worried !!!