Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

owenc

i better get some snow out of this... i think i might get some tonight considering the forecasted showers coming and how low the temps will be ... meto are forecasting 4c max tomorrow maybe tomorrow will be cold!

WolfeIRE

owenc wrote: »

meto are forecasting 4c max tomorrow maybe tomorrow will be cold!

yes it will be cold. maybe 4c

Higher ground around you will most likely see snow in any precip Owen. Your coastal position is working against you. Knowing you, nothing less than a thunderstorm with 18 foot of powedery snow in your garden will suffice. Downgrade your expectations and you might get a surprise.

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

yes it will be cold. maybe 4c

Higher ground around you will most likely see snow in any precip Owen. Your coastal position is working against you. Knowing you, nothing less than a thunderstorm with 18 foot of powedery snow in your garden will suffice. Downgrade your expectations and you might get a surprise.

yes we might but you do release im going up a hill so im not really that coastal and im actaully about 10 miles inland.. so we shall see..

WolfeIRE

owenc wrote: »

yes we might but you do release im going up a hill so im not really that coastal and im actaully about 10 miles inland.. so we shall see..

i didn'ty realise that, sorry. Your height ASL of course is critical. Either way, don't lose faith over the next 24hrs. There should be more action late tuesday onwards.

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

i didn'ty realise that, sorry. Your height ASL of course is critical. Either way, don't lose faith over the next 24hrs. There should be more action late tuesday onwards.

yep i think i might see something tonight going by all the models..

Deep Easterly

owenc wrote: »

yes we might but you do release im going up a hill so im not really that coastal and im actaully about 10 miles inland.. so we shall see..

Do you have a map showing your approx location Owenc, we might get a better idea of where you are coming from so to speak. I have this idea that you are right on the north coast.

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Do you have a map showing your approx location Owenc, we might get a better idea of where you are coming from so to speak. I have this idea that you are right on the north coast.

No,no im wayy inland from that ill post up a map... somehow.. EDIT: if you put in coleraine in google maps and then goto ballywildrick (further inland than that though).. you will see a hill near they i live around that area ...

Su Campu

owenc wrote: »

No,no im wayy inland from that ill post up a map... somehow.. EDIT: if you put in coleraine in google maps and then goto ballywildrick (further inland than that though).. you will see a hill near they i live around that area ...

I make that no more than 3 miles inland owen! The hills are a little over 200m, so you be doing well to get much snow even up there.

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

I make that no more than 3 miles inland owen! The hills are a little over 200m, so you be doing well to get much snow even up there.

400 m nearly at the highest! well we got 8 inches in the cold spell and the temp has dropped we shall see... and tomorrow if all stays and goes well we should see maxes of 3c. well a shower is coming in now and temp has dropped to 4c here with all this cloud so this will give us a hint of what we can expect tonight..

Danno

Owen, I have seen it snow here with 6c air temperatures and rain with 1c temperatures. Going by a thermometer in your garden will not help you too much. You need to also know your dewpoints which are a much better indicator of possible snow.

Now on, www.xcweather.co.uk the City of Derry airport at Eglinton reports 7c air temperatures and 5c dew point. This is far too high for snow. AFAIK that airport is near sea-level. A general rule of thumb is that temperatures drop 1c every 150m approx.

Using that as a guide, you would be allowing yourself 300m elevation - being very generous here - so at the most, you would be at 5c with 3c dewpoints. Still too high for snow.

Going forward, I would keep an eye on that airport's reading, if you see 2c/1c then snow would almost be certain for your area, anything higher will not really deliver.

Saganist

So lads, Is Dublin in line for a dumping of snow in this spell ? It seems fairly mild out there at the minute, can't see it dropping too much in the near future !

owenc

Danno wrote: »

Owen, I have seen it snow here with 6c air temperatures and rain with 1c temperatures. Going by a thermometer in your garden will not help you too much. You need to also know your dewpoints which are a much better indicator of possible snow.

Now on, www.xcweather.co.uk the City of Derry airport at Eglinton reports 7c air temperatures and 5c dew point. This is far too high for snow. AFAIK that airport is near sea-level. A general rule of thumb is that temperatures drop 1c every 150m approx.

Using that as a guide, you would be allowing yourself 300m elevation - being very generous here - so at the most, you would be at 5c with 3c dewpoints. Still too high for snow.

Going forward, I would keep an eye on that airport's reading, if you see 2c/1c then snow would almost be certain for your area, anything higher will not really deliver.

yes well it shows temps of around that from tomorrow onwards so we shall see... though i doubt we will be seeing that here..

Su Campu

Here are the METARs for the last 6 hours at Derry Airport owen, with temp and dewpoint in bold. Both are on their way down, but usually the coldest temperatures after a cold front don't come until the second night.

EGAE 151420Z 26010KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025 04/03 Q0998
EGAE 151350Z 29011KT 9999 VCSH FEW015 SCT025 06/03 Q0999
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151320Z 28013KT 9999 FEW015 SCT025 05/03 Q0999[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151250Z 27010KT 9999 VCSH FEW015 SCT025 07/05 Q0999[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151220Z 25011KT 9999 VCSH FEW015 SCT025 08/05 Q0999[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151150Z 25009KT 9999 FEW040 07/05 Q1000[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151120Z 24007KT 9999 FEW012 SCT040 06/04 Q1001[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151050Z 26007KT 9999 -RA FEW012 SCT025 05/04 Q1001[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 151020Z 26011KT 5000 SHRA FEW012 SCT022 06/05 Q1001[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 150950Z 24010KT 9999 FEW012 SCT022 06/05 Q1001[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 150920Z 24010KT 9999 SCT012 BKN022 06/04 Q1002[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]EGAE 150850Z 23010KT 9999 -RA BKN012 BKN022 06/04 Q1002[/FONT]

owenc

has a cold trough or something passed through as the temp has dropped 2c here now to 3.5c...???

WolfeIRE

owenc wrote: »

has a cold trough or something passed through as the temp has dropped 2c here now to 3.5c...???

could be worse Owen.

You could be this fella who was rejected yesterday at an ice hockey game. Unles of course you are him.

Su Campu

owenc wrote: »

has a cold trough or something passed through as the temp has dropped 2c here now to 3.5c...???

It's the cold front we've been talking about all morning!! :rolleyes:

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

It's the cold front we've been talking about all morning!! :rolleyes:

But hasnt it passed through... it must be something though because how the heck could temps drop from 6c to 3.5c.. hmm.. anyway..:D

WolfeIRE

owenc wrote: »

But hasnt it passed through... it must be something though because how the heck could temps drop from 6c to 3.5c.. hmm.. anyway..:D

maybe you left the fridge door open

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

maybe you left the fridge door open

maybe..

Su Campu

owenc wrote: »

But hasnt it passed through... it must be something though because how the heck could temps drop from 6c to 3.5c.. hmm.. anyway..:D

Ok, then I'll email these guys and tell them their chart's wrong...

faktisperminute

had a sleet/rain shower 15min ago with strong winds
location : north west of roscommon

owenc

faktisperminute wrote: »

had a sleet/rain shower 15min ago with strong winds
location : north west of roscommon

temps dropping about 3c now... how accurate are those xc weather forecasts could we really be seeing 3c maxes from tomorrow???

Vudgie

Some lashing rain and wintry showers reported around Dublin today. Definitely not cold enough for snow, but an anticipated drop in temps could make things interesting.

I still feel that it is unlikely that we will get anything like we did January but there may be some flurrys here and there in a localised fashion....just so some of the guys here can get their fix before Spring finally takes over:P

WolfeIRE

GFS output up to Late Wed PM indicate that Ulster will bear the brunt of any wintry precipitation at lower level.

From Thursday AM the threat of snowfall at lower levels elsewhere increases greatly as colder air is dragged down over Ireland. Your best chances of seeing snow remain on higher ground however as conditions remain marginal. This is of course subject to change closer to the time.

Looks like UK mainland will get a dumping. Any westward movement of the low pressure system would see snow potential increase for east and north of ireland.

irish1967

Sleet here now. Wait it's rain.. No it's sleet .. rain sleet mix I guess.

arctictree

Quite a big difference between the ECM and GFS at three days out. ECM has the low tracking to the south of Ireland and then over the south of England. GFS has the low fizzeling out and breaking up over the UK. I wonder which one will be right?

bray man

Sleety rain here earlier, temp 7.7/dp 4.5 :mad:

WolfeIRE

Showery activity following from NW. The passing cold front can be clearly seen in a line from Clare to Dublin

bray man

more hevy rain with a little sleet mixed in here now. 7.4/4.5

owenc

bray man wrote: »

more hevy rain with a little sleet mixed in here now. 7.4/4.5

sleety rainbeginning here turning more wintery each time id say its snow higher up its a bit like irish19... dont you think if tomorrows temps are 3c ahhh its snowing !!