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Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Take it easy there owen, you'll give yorself a heart attack! :D

    Some really beefy hail showers going to be around from tomorrow, should see some thunderstorms in the northwest and west. There is a chance that in these showers some of the snow from upper levels will get blown downwards by some downdrafts giving some brief flurries at maybe 150-200m, but it won't hang around for long.

    There should be some nice photo opportunities so always have a camera at hand!

    And then of course there's the GFS taunting us with the polar low scenario again Saturday, but we're not going to be fooled again! :rolleyes:

    120_27.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    yes, Su Campu don't put yourself through such heartache again;)

    well, i feel this could be our last chance for snow. as it definitely looks like the atlantic will be back in charge by monday week. our chances for snow at lower levels look good from wednesday night and thursday onwards as the colder upper air gets dragged in over us.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM cold overall and good potential for snow especially after midweek.

    Recm1441.gif

    Ireland remain on the cold side.


    FS 12z Op run was also a warm outlier on it's ensembles so not bad if you like snow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    snow shower with really small flakes
    yeaaahaa!!!!!!!!!!!
    location : north west of roscommon


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    maybe this is a mistake but if you look at Irish Weather Networks website it shows athlones dp as -5.3 . is it possible it could be low as temp is only 2.3???


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    1.3c here now ... was snowing constantly with big massive wet flakes all the way from derry but then when i hit near here it stopped... it must have been snowing there for about an hour now and it isnt lying but the thermometer was 1.5c the whole way typical typical!(that there is no snow currently falling here)
    how long does it take for the temps to actually drop so the snow can lie..


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,168 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    Really starting to come down here. :D:p:D Small flakes but falling heavily:D:):eek: for past 20 minutes or so. :eek::D Looking good. Heard Coleraine:(:confused: is bone dry and mild:mad::mad::( Moanc won't be happy.:p:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Really starting to come down here. :D:p:D Small flakes but falling heavily:D:):eek: for past 20 minutes or so. :eek::D Looking good. Heard Coleraine:(:confused: is bone dry and mild:mad::mad::( Moanc won't be happy.:p:D

    I like it!!!

    Must have hit the smilie limiter therer . . .

    and i can't put any in this post cos there's so many in the quote!!! :-) manual smilies . . . >:-(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Really starting to come down here. :D:p:D Small flakes but falling heavily:D:):eek: for past 20 minutes or so. :eek::D Looking good. Heard Coleraine:(:confused: is bone dry and mild:mad::mad::( Moanc won't be happy.:p:D

    Where's Ballytempleroche? The only hit in Google is your posts


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Where's Ballytempleroche? The only hit in Google is your posts

    This fella has previous, I seem to remember Ballytempleroche being twinned with Narnia :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Take it easy there owen, you'll give yorself a heart attack! :D

    Some really beefy hail showers going to be around from tomorrow, should see some thunderstorms in the northwest and west. There is a chance that in these showers some of the snow from upper levels will get blown downwards by some downdrafts giving some brief flurries at maybe 150-200m, but it won't hang around for long.

    There should be some nice photo opportunities so always have a camera at hand!

    And then of course there's the GFS taunting us with the polar low scenario again Saturday, but we're not going to be fooled again! :rolleyes:

    I would have to disagree with your altitude estimates for snow, i expect snow to get to low levels during the week and quite frequently.

    Lots of nice charts tonight keeping the cold with us for the forseable future.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    tinners wrote: »
    This fella has previous, I seem to remember Ballytempleroche being twinned with Narnia :rolleyes:

    :D

    faktisperminute, are you on high ground?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭Takeshi_Kovacs


    owenc wrote: »
    1.3c here now ... was snowing constantly with big massive wet flakes all the way from derry but then when i hit near here it stopped... it must have been snowing there for about an hour now and it isnt lying but the thermometer was 1.5c the whole way typical typical!(that there is no snow currently falling here)
    how long does it take for the temps to actually drop so the snow can lie..

    It would depend on a number of factors, from how fast the wind speed is, what temp the oncoming air is, ground temps, if it is raining or not, many more variables...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭sundodger5


    Snowing in Mayo. just outside castlebar..


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I would have to disagree with your altitude estimates for snow, i expect snow to get to low levels during the week and quite frequently.

    Lots of nice charts tonight keeping the cold with us for the forseable future.


    ???????????????????? Hi WC, where is your optimism for snow coming from ?

    All I can see for the week ahead is temps being slightly colder than normal with rain and the odd hail shower at lower levels.

    I don't understand where all this talk of snow is coming from! :D

    Derek


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    we are in clear spell mode now and temp has dropped to 0.5c hopefully we can stay like this for a wee while to get to say -1c and then the showers can come on in.. should i expect any lying snow in the mornig?


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    :D

    faktisperminute, are you on high ground?
    no 69 asl


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Expect the unexpected : :eek:

    Temps have been taking a bit of a tumble down here in Newbridge,

    From a high of 8c dow to 2.4c now with a DP of 0.8.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Expect the unexpected : :eek:

    Temps have been taking a bit of a tumble down here in Newbridge,

    From a high of 8c dow to 2.4c now with a DP of 0.8.

    I have been keeping an eye on that with interest !!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    sundodger5 wrote: »
    Snowing in Mayo. just outside castlebar..

    turning to snow showers allready in the west,oh this could be my snow event later in the week :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    owenc wrote: »
    we are in clear spell mode now and temp has dropped to 0.5c hopefully we can stay like this for a wee while to get to say -1c and then the showers can come on in.. should i expect any lying snow in the mornig?

    No, don't expect any snow
    Any precipitation in Coleraine will most likely be of rain ...no pun intended :)

    Derek


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I would have to disagree with your altitude estimates for snow, i expect snow to get to low levels during the week and quite frequently.

    Lots of nice charts tonight keeping the cold with us for the forseable future.

    I dunno, I go by the 850hPa wet bulb and theta potential temperatures. The lowest WBPT forecast this week by both GFS and NAE is +2°C, which equates to a snowline of around 250m. Similarly the lowest thetas of around +13°C show 200-250m.

    We need WBPT of -1°C and theta of +8°C to be 100% guaranteed snow at sea level. There is a hint that these may lower near the weekend, but until Friday I don't see any snow at low levels.

    10021712_1512.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I dunno, I go by the 850hPa wet bulb and theta potential temperatures. The lowest WBPT forecast this week by both GFS and NAE is +2°C, which equates to a snowline of around 250m. Similarly the lowest thetas of around +13°C show 200-250m.

    We need WBPT of -1°C and theta of +8°C to be 100% guaranteed snow at sea level. There is a hint that these may lower near the weekend, but until Friday I don't see any snow at low levels.

    10021712_1512.gif

    The main markers i use for potential snowfall are dewpoints, 850hpa temps and 850-1000hpa thicknesses.

    No denying the marginality of the week but with 850-1000hpa thicknesses flirting towards 129-130, 850hpas around -5c and some -1c - 2c dewpoints. I would expect with decent precip wintry precip and snow to reach low levels rather regularly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I dunno, I go by the 850hPa wet bulb and theta potential temperatures. The lowest WBPT forecast this week by both GFS and NAE is +2°C, which equates to a snowline of around 250m. Similarly the lowest thetas of around +13°C show 200-250m.

    We need WBPT of -1°C and theta of +8°C to be 100% guaranteed snow at sea level. There is a hint that these may lower near the weekend, but until Friday I don't see any snow at low levels.

    10021712_1512.gif

    Voice of reason once again :)

    I am starting to believe that there are some posters on this forum who think if they believe hard enough, then snow will arrive!

    Just watched the weather after the Nine news - daytime temps of +3oC to +7oC over the coming days; it just does not snow with such high temperatures...:rolleyes:

    Derek


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    derekon wrote: »
    Voice of reason once again :)

    I am starting to believe that there are some posters on this forum who think if they believe hard enough, then snow will arrive!

    Just watched the weather after the Nine news - daytime temps of +3oC to +7oC over the coming days; it just does not snow with such high temperatures...:rolleyes:

    Derek

    You seem to be missing a point with temperature maxes though.

    Its mid February the sun is getting higher, with sunny breaks during the weak temperatures could push up to 4/5c and perhaps 6/7c in the south and southwest. However dewpoints will be around 0c and when precipitation/ cloud cover arrives temperatures would drop quickly back to 1-3c and 0c/-1c dewpoints.

    Its easy to look at the max and say no chance but you would be wrong.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    850hPa Wet Bulb Potential Temperature (% probability of snow)


    0m 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m
    +3°C 50% 60% 65% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
    +2°C 80% 85% 90% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100%
    +1°C 90% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    0°C 95% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    -1°C 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


    850hPa Equivalent Potential Temperature (ThetaE) (% probability of snow)


    0m 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m
    +16°C 50% 60% 65% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
    +14°C 80% 85% 90% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100%
    +12°C 90% 95% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    +10°C 95% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
    +8°C 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    some nice flakes here I am expecting some accumulation:D
    Update: nahh its too wet ):


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    derekon wrote: »
    Voice of reason once again :)

    I am starting to believe that there are some posters on this forum who think if they believe hard enough, then snow will arrive!

    Just watched the weather after the Nine news - daytime temps of +3oC to +7oC over the coming days; it just does not snow with such high temperatures...:rolleyes:

    Derek

    yes it does because the majoeity will be 3-5c and the far south will only reach 7c and for proof it can snow above 3c today it snowed ay 4c


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I find it hard to understand the negativity in here with charts like this: just 2 and 3 days away respectively.

    During any other winter we'd be ramping up!

    Rtavn481.png

    Rtavn721.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    I find it hard to understand the negativity in here with charts like this: just 3 days away.

    During any other winter we'd be ramping up!

    Rtavn721.png

    both_ramps_june.jpg


This discussion has been closed.
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