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Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Pangea wrote: »
    People were saying last week, that any snow would melt by afternoon, at this stage of the year,
    But if theres a big freeze on that kept temps to 1 or 2 during the day, it wouldnt melt would it?

    Nacho is right, though the problem will be tapping into cold enough air. Going on the latest setup it's not looking too convincing.

    Another point is that even if the air temperature is only 1 or 2°C, with the sun 12° higher in the sky now than it was 6 weeks ago, the snow will still melt if it gets a direct shot of the sun, especially around the edges of footpaths, fields, etc. So all it takes is one tiny patch of exposed concrete say, and the increased UV radiation now leads to increased IR emission by the surface, which leads to accelerated melting from the edge of the snow pack. Obviously the best chance is if it falls at night and covers all bare ground. But for that, we need the really cold air, and round and round we go!! :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Nacho is right, though the problem will be tapping into cold enough air. Going on the latest setup it's not looking too convincing.

    Another point is that even if the air temperature is only 1 or 2°C, with the sun 12° higher in the sky now than it was 6 weeks ago, the snow will still melt if it gets a direct shot of the sun, especially around the edges of footpaths, fields, etc. So all it takes is one tiny patch of exposed concrete say, and the increased UV radiation now leads to increased IR emission by the surface, which leads to accelerated melting from the edge of the snow pack. Obviously the best chance is if it falls at night and covers all bare ground. But for that, we need the really cold air, and round and round we go!! :D


    how did the snow manage to stay in south east england?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    SE England is not as maritime as we are.

    The air source this coming week is a Polar Maritme. What a Polar Maritime normally does is scoop up energy from the warmer sea temps and create instability. Result. Heavy showers, esp in coastal areas and in windward inland areas. Snow can occur, it can be heavy, can be thundery and blizzard like at times, but it will melt just as quick. My experience of polar maritime snow is this: lots of slush lying around, cold and nasty feeling airmass, and generally foul conditions that are more of an eyesore than a visual delight. This type of weather is common, esp in Feb and March, and I have yet to see anything but rubbish produced by the synoptics similar to what is shown at the moment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    owenc wrote: »
    how did the snow manage to stay in south east england?

    I'm not saying it won't stick, just that it has less chance of doing so, but that of course only applies of it's sunny after the fall. If it's cloudy for days after it then of course it will stay. But this week looks more like a showery setup, so we would expect some good sunny periods in between the showers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    SE England is not as maritime as we are.

    The air source this coming week is a Polar Maritme. What a Polar Maritime normally does is scoop up energy from the warmer sea temps and create instability. Result. Heavy showers, esp in coastal areas and in windward inland areas. Snow can occur, it can be heavy, can be thundery and blizzard like at times, but it will melt just as quick. My experience of polar maritime snow is this: lots of slush lying around, cold and nasty feeling airmass, and generally foul conditions that are more of an eyesore than a visual delight. This type of weather is common, esp in Feb and March, and I have yet to see anything but rubbish produced by the synoptics similar to what is shown at the moment.

    i've seen resonable snow cover by night out of such setups. however by days it's messy, the snow melts quickly and we get sleety rain in blustry conditions.
    after this week it doesn't really look like we'll draw in the really cold air to the north east. so i suspect what will happen is that the atlantic will win through. it would be great if it didn't and we ended up with two or three polar lows to end February. yeah i know i don't ask for much:D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    There won't be any snow in Dublin anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    i've seen resonable snow cover by night out of such setups. however by days it's messy, the snow melts quickly and we get sleety rain in blustry conditions.
    after this week it doesn't really look like we'll draw in the really cold air to the north east. so i suspect what will happen is that the atlantic will win through. it would be great if it didn't and we ended up with two or three polar lows to end February. yeah i know i don't ask for much:D

    Yes, it can snow heavy at night here too under such a set up, but my interest at this stage would be more towards thunder than snow for this week. Coastal areas always more at risk given the synoptics as there does not seem to be much wind to drive any interest inland. However, even if thunderstorms remain towards the coast, at least there could be some nice lightning displays to be seen further inland. Snow be damned, give me something bigger...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Interesting short term charts tonight.

    ECM looks very interesting.

    Somewhere i suggest will recieve alot of snow this week. Muchos potential.

    An extreme nowcast situation

    Very nice ECM infact.

    Positioning of low means we get the cold side of the low.

    ECM1-72.GIF?14-0


    ECM1-96.GIF?14-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    How accurate are these charts at +36 ?

    uksnowrisk.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Interesting short term charts tonight.

    ECM looks very interesting.

    Somewhere i suggest will recieve alot of snow this week. Muchos potential.

    An extreme nowcast situation

    Very nice ECM infact.

    Positioning of low means we get the cold side of the low.





    Yes indeed. A few fronts wrapped in there aswell. I don't expect snow all the time. Probrably enough rain and sleet aswell. But some places will indeed get heavy snow from time to time. Maybe even a frontal event in the week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,287 ✭✭✭arctictree


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Yes indeed. A few fronts wrapped in there aswell. I don't expect snow all the time. Probrably enough rain and sleet aswell. But some places will indeed get heavy snow from time to time. Maybe even a frontal event in the week.

    Could the first 'event' possibly be tomorrow night/Tues morning? Charts are showing precip with low temps:

    Precip:
    Rtavn424.png

    Temps:
    Rtavn4217.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    arctictree wrote: »
    Could the first 'event' possibly be tomorrow night/Tues morning? Charts are showing precip with low temps:

    Precip:
    Rtavn424.png

    Temps:
    Rtavn4217.png

    yes that snow risk map shows snow tomorrow aswell.. hmmm:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, it can snow heavy at night here too under such a set up, but my interest at this stage would be more towards thunder than snow for this week. Coastal areas always more at risk given the synoptics as there does not seem to be much wind to drive any interest inland. However, even if thunderstorms remain towards the coast, at least there could be some nice lightning displays to be seen further inland. Snow be damned, give me something bigger...

    how dare you. there is nothing bigger than snow. banned for a week for blasphemy:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    how dare you. there is nothing bigger than snow. banned for a week for blasphemy:D

    Communist pig...:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    So i was thinking look at the ECM that some of the charts are very tasty.

    Lows slap bang over us, 850hpas between -4c and -6c

    Slack winds with limited sea modication. Heavy precip floating about, low thicknesses.

    Met not really forecasting anything positive.

    The ECM charts at 72 and 96 ring potential snow tastic to me.

    We could get something outta this lads, lets hope for some more luck.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    the bbc are showing snow showers tomorrow night hitting the north coast... something must be happening... is the cold front which is bringing colder uppers etc passing through tomorrow?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    lets hope for some more luck.

    Just about sums things up...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's going to be very marginal through the week IMO. Best chance is at night. It's a situation where we either get alot of snow or no snow at all at low levels.

    Artictree I think it's more likely to be showers tomorrow night rather then an "event". The showers heavy and most frequent in the west. Think some will wake up unexpectedly to a covering in the midlands and west on Tuesday morning. Looks ligther and more patchy further east. But with a bit of elevation a dusting seems quite possible IMO.

    Oh and frost and ice returning too!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    For my area at least, the latest yr.no update looks slightly milder than this morning's run for the coming week. Any snow potential is smashed with just the odd sleet shower at best. Temps more closer to average in general.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    For my area at least, the latest yr.no update looks slightly milder than this morning's run for the coming week. Any snow potential is smashed with just the odd sleet shower at best. Temps more closer to average in general.


    It updates with every GFS run. Don't rely on it tbh.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    It updates with every GFS run. Don't rely on it tbh.

    It's ECM based DM. There is a few frosts thrown in for this week, but with the amount of cloud that will be around, I'd not be surprised if even that would be dropped in later runs.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's ECM based DM. There is a few frosts thrown in for this week, but with the amount of cloud that will be around, I'd not be surprised if even that would be dropped in later runs.


    If it uses the ECM then it must be more reliable then the multitude of GFS based sites like Met Check and sites like that. I have never used the site before. Will have to check it out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

    click on nedbor.

    This shows that precip will be largely confined to the western half of the island

    Wednesday to Friday present our best chance of seeing snow. What's interesting is that the models have indicated this for the last five days. The slightest repositioning of that low system will upgrade or downgrade snow potential. Ultimately we are heading int he right direction if you want to see snow which will be showery. There will be localised downpours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    all eyes on Wednesday to Friday then.
    god knows after yesterday's hammering in paris, the countries needs a lift in the form of snow- or maybe it's just me who does:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    all eyes on Wednesday to Friday then.
    god knows after yesterday's hammering in paris, the countries needs a lift in the form of snow- or maybe it's just me who does:pac:

    It's just you.

    What this country needs, apart from a violent and bloody revolution to oust the tyrannical powers that be, is some violent, damaging storms. I want to see destruction, lightning ripping open the sky, 50 metre high waves smashing against the coast. This is what this country needs. It is not asking to much, is it? :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Us farmers need mild dry weather, a big high pressure dragging up winds from Spain where in a perfect set up it would be warm and dry.

    Ground temperatures are several degrees below normal, around 2c to 3c, grass needs the temperatures above 6c and clover need it above 9c.

    I'd be happy if we got all our cold weather this coming week and snow and then its the last we see of it till next winter.

    Roll on Spring 2010, people who want snow, go on a ski holiday or watch the Olympics :p


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Min wrote: »
    Us farmers need mild dry weather, a big high pressure dragging up winds from Spain where in a perfect set up it would be warm and dry.



    What's that? A farmer complaining!? Well I never....;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    18z shows.

    1) Chance of widespread wintry showers tomorrow night.

    2) Tuesday night low pressure wrap around to push down into Northwest with sleet and snow on its eastern side, exact track subject to 50/80 mile change, precip distribution also.

    3) Wednesday night sees frontal band pushing into east as low pressure drops to the south with pulses heavy sleet/snow pushing onto eastern coast through into Thursday morning.

    - Bitter Northeasterlies following with wintry showers on Eastern/Northern, exposed western coasts.

    A wintry exciting outlook ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Min wrote: »
    Us farmers need mild dry weather, a big high pressure dragging up winds from Spain where in a perfect set up it would be warm and dry.

    Roll on Spring 2010, people who want snow, go on a ski holiday or watch the Olympics :p

    Irish farmers could also buy a plot of land in Spain too:p

    the latest gfs is focusing the snow potential on Northwest and mountains elsewhere up to Wednesday night


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    18z shows.


    3) Wednesday night sees frontal band pushing into east as low pressure drops to the south with pulses heavy sleet/snow pushing onto eastern coast through into Thursday morning.

    A wintry exciting outlook ;)



    Yep, see that. It's only one run though. Would definately be sleet and snow showers and possibly some longer stuff Thursday morning. Some harsh frosts indicated aswell. Temperatures down to -6 or -7 locally id reckon. Always a little milder in the East but not be much. Could get very icy.


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