Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

WolfeIRE

arctictree wrote: »

Some hefty radar echoes off the Louth coast. I wonder if any will make it inland or head south. The animation shows them as very static.

yes arctic. should the winds shift easterly as forecast they will make land shortly. the precip will be very slow moving

redalicat

6.4c here in Kilcullen and rising, absolutely gorgeous bright sky with just a few passing clouds. Hanging the wash out for now...:)

thetonynator

with the heat from the sun today, any snow lying in that would be melted in no time . . . .its just too mild during the day for lying snowfall . . . .

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

yes arctic. should the winds shift easterly as forecast they will make land shortly. the precip will be very slow moving

well wolfe did you get any snow last night? nada here. have you had a chance to read the charts this morning? thursday to saturday not looking too bad for precipitation if all works out.

WolfeIRE

Not a flake Munster. The precip was not as widespread as forecast

The charts are all over the place and basically are not to be trusted. For example, nobody fourcast four inches of snow for Monaghan/Fermanagh this morning. The west and North look like being worst affected by any showers or longer spells of precipitation between now and Monday. The East Coast will have some showers from this afternoon through to tomorrow evening. The upper temps and air temps become more condusive for snow from tonight onwards.

What does look likely at this point is that the cold spell will be replaced by milder air by the end of next week, according to the models. Having said that they did say this last week about this week. :mad:

Finally, saturday night/sunday morning does present our best chance of seeing more widespread snow. A band of rpecip moving North eastwards, affecting a line from Kerry to Louth. This will undoubtedly change in the meantime.

Was surprised at MT's predictions for next 48hrs. I hope he is right

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Not a flake Munster. The precip was not as widespread as forecast

The charts are all over the place and basically are not to be trusted. For example, nobody fourcast four inches of snow for Monaghan/Fermanagh this morning. The west and North look like being worst affected by any showers or longer spells of precipitation between now and Monday. The East Coast will have some showers from this afternoon through to tomorrow evening. The upper temps and air temps become more condusive for snow from tonight onwards.

What does look likely at this point is that the cold spell will be replaced by milder air by the end of next week, according to the models. Having said that they did say this last week about this week. :mad:

Finally, saturday night/sunday morning does present our best chance of seeing more widespread snow. A band of rpecip moving North eastwards, affecting a line from Kerry to Louth. This will undoubtedly change in the meantime.

Was surprised at MT's predictions for next 48hrs. I hope he is right

this website http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm seems to have precipitation on Friday/Saturday spreading south as opposed to north east.

doesn't show saturday night/sunday yet on it though. will this not be coming from the milder atlantic and bring a rise in temperatures?

Su Campu

We don't know how high up those four inches fell, and if it was indeed four inches. The poster said outside Eniskillen, which could be in any of the hills surrounding it. Will be interesting to find out exactly where it was.

WolfeIRE

No Atlantic does not look like breaking through until late next week, if at all. In fact, it might be warmer air fromFrance/Iberia that breaks the cold spell rather than our traditional atlantic systems.

The sunday, even Monday, band of precip will be coming from a low system tracking from bay of biscay. It will meet cold air, colder than today, and looks like being beaten back. Could be interesting

WolfeIRE

Su Campu wrote: »

We don't know how high up those four inches fell, and if it was indeed four inches. The poster said outside Eniskillen, which could be in any of the hills surrounding it. Will be interesting to find out exactly where it was.

I do not recall Met Eireann showing any potential for precip there this morn though, high ground or not. Having said that I didn't see it nor did anyone here. I really did not think the precip would be so slow moving. This obviously reduced the potential for more widespread showers

Su Campu

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I do not recall Met Eireann showing any potential for precip there this morn though, high ground or not. Having said that I didn't see it nor did anyone here. I really did not think the precip would be so slow moving. This obviously reduced the potential for more widespread showers

Well to be fair Eniskillen is pretty much near enough to the northwest when you look at it, which is where they said the bulk of the precip would be.

snowjon

Su Campu wrote: »

We don't know how high up those four inches fell, and if it was indeed four inches. The poster said outside Eniskillen, which could be in any of the hills surrounding it. Will be interesting to find out exactly where it was.

That part of NI must have had snow to low levels given the UKMO flash warning:

A slow moving band of snow is crossing Counties Fermanagh and Tyrone at present and is expected to give a further 5 to 10cm over the next few hours this falling as snow at all levels. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Watch (NI) (operational hours 07.30 to 18.30 Mon to Fri) for further advice on road conditions.
Issued at: 0535 Wed 17 Feb

WolfeIRE

MET Eireann did NOT flag this. Their predictions for Munster fell flat too, where they said bulk of precip would be - not north west. As did mine....I was worng wrong wrong and have no prob admitting that. Sry to those who went on ebay to buy snowboards:o

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0216/9news_av.html?2702657,null,230

Deep Easterly

I think it would be more likely a high elevation event in the north this morning. It also calls to question the region that met eireann covers. Do they include the north in there overall forecasts? possibly not, and if not, then their forecast yesterday was pretty spot on and reflected the set up nicely.

munsterlegend

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think it would be more likely a high elevation event in the north this morning. It also calls to question the region that met eireann covers. Do they include the north in there overall forecasts? possibly not, and if not, then their forecast yesterday was pretty spot on and reflected the set up nicely.

i thought they covered all counties in their forecast? well they mention it anyway but more focus is paid to the south.

WolfeIRE

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think it would be more likely a high elevation event in the north this morning. It also calls to question the region that met eireann covers. Do they include the north in there overall forecasts? possibly not, and if not, then their forecast yesterday was pretty spot on and reflected the set up nicely.

But there was little or no precip in Munster Deep. Look at ME's 9pm weather update. Secondly, Monaghan had a couple of hours snow this morn. It is in the Republic.

Either, maybe I am being pedantic.

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

i thought they covered all counties in their forecast? well they mention it anyway but more focus is paid to the south.

I am honestly not sure, but I would imagine their primary concern would be the Republic, just like the BBC NI forecast focuses on the north exclusively.

Snowaddict

Su Campu wrote: »

Well to be fair Eniskillen is pretty much near enough to the northwest when you look at it, which is where they said the bulk of the precip would be.

Yes indeed Su Campu,

None of the Hi-Res models picked up this rather localised development very well - but such is the nature of the weather & features can crop in in a flow. Looking at the Radar imagery, as the winds in the main circulation gradually shifted towards 09.00 Hours, shear at upper levels inhibited further development & the main area of activity gradually receeded.

However, NWP Guidance for the past 36 hours, notably the NAE model, did not model anything significant in terms of snowfall potential & that's why I was less than enthuasiastic about developments. I think Met Eireann called the general setup very well.

Again, at this time of the year, we need a direct Polar Northwesterly flow or a moderate to severe Easterly/Northeasterly flow to enable snowfall developments.

The optimum scenario is to have an area of LP approach from the immediate south, with winds just North of East across the country, providing an undercutting motion at all levels.

There are mixed indications for the coming 5 Days, generally remaining on the cold side, very cold at night, with sharp to severe frosts. Isolated wintry showers but no signal for widespread precipitation, at the moment at least.

SA

munsterlegend

Snowaddict wrote: »

Yes indeed Su Campu,

None of the Hi-Res models picked up this rather localised development very well - but such is the nature of the weather & features can crop in in a flow. Looking at the Radar imagery, as the winds in the main circulation gradually shifted towards 09.00 Hours, shear at upper levels inhibited further development & the main area of activity gradually receeded.

However, NWP Guidance for the past 36 hours, notably the NAE model, did not model anything significant in terms of snowfall potential & that's why I was less than enthuasiastic about developments. I think Met Eireann called the general setup very well.

Again, at this time of the year, we need a direct Polar Northwesterly flow or a moderate to severe Easterly/Northeasterly flow to enable snowfall developments.

The optimum scenario is to have an area of LP approach from the immediate south, with winds just North of East across the country, providing an undercutting motion at all levels.

There are mixed indications for the coming 5 Days, generally remaining on the cold side, very cold at night, with sharp to severe frosts. Isolated wintry showers but no signal for widespread precipitation, at the moment at least.

SA

i thought saturday/sunday have the potential of more than just wintry showers or is that too far away yet?

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

But there was little or no precip in Munster Deep. Look at ME's 9pm weather update. Secondly, Monaghan had a couple of hours snow this morn. It is in the Republic.

Either, maybe I am being pedantic.

I am not denying that Wolfe, but Ev mentioned isolated wintry showers falling in places last night, and that is what happened. I am sure there was a few showers in parts of Munster last night. They forecast heavy showers for South Connacht for yesterday evening, an while I barely scraped one, they were around in the evening not too far from here, so spot on as far as I am concerned.

The actual set up, with slack low pressure systems hovering around are very hard to pinpoint specifics within them. No forecast will be bang on correct, but met eireann are pretty on the ball with this set up in my opinion.

munsterlegend

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am honestly not sure, but I would imagine their primary concern would be the Republic, just like the BBC NI forecast focuses on the north exclusively.

yeah bbc ni never or rarely mention us down here from my viewings of it. given the license fee is paid in the south they should focus on us!

nacho libre

I can confirm that snow fell at lower levels in the north this morning. As i was talking to a friend of mine up north earlier on. also, met eireann were caught out but it's perfectly understandable in this setup.with this in mind take any prediction for this weekend with a large dose of salt.

also are the models going back to default mode or will the breakdown of this winter's pattern come late next week? bear in mind joe bastardi predicted this to happen around the first week in march, so perhaps it will come a bit earlier. although, there were suggestions over on netweather that we would go back and forth between a cold zonal flow and relatively milder weather for a while through march, with no sign of real spring like weather in the offing.
so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Even if it won't be interesting in the actual...

Snowaddict

munsterlegend wrote: »

i thought saturday/sunday have the potential of more than just wintry showers or is that too far away yet?

Hi Munster,

It's possible but given the complex setup with the phasing of the lows, it's hard to be certain about precipitation distribution beyond T+72.

At the moment, ECMWF is not indicating any widespread risk for the weekend, of course this is subject to change at this range.

SA

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Even if it won't be interesting in the actual...

it depends:p

if the breakdown comes something interesting is bound to happen;)

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

The optimum scenario is to have an area of LP approach from the immediate south, with winds just North of East across the country, providing an undercutting motion at all levels.



SA

That would be the optimum scenario for the southern half of the country, but for the northern half, a direct Arctic feed with troughing would be more the vibe. Anyone that might doubt this just reflect back to April 1917, when the possibly the most severe and intense falls of snow of the 20th century crippled counties in the north, along western seaboard and into the western midlands.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

it depends:p

if the breakdown comes something interesting is bound to happen;)

I am holding you to that Nacho. You better be right. :cool:

patneve2

If this chart were to come off I could say goodbye to Winter in style:D

...NOTE: perfectly positioned low over Anglesey

Precip progged from Sat morning to Sunday night, likely to start off as rain/sleet but then turn into snow as the mild sector moves over England :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That would be the optimum scenario for the southern half of the country, but for the northern half, a direct Arctic feed with troughing would be more the vibe. Anyone that might doubt this just reflect back to April 1917, when the possibly the most severe and intense falls of snow of the 20th century crippled counties in the north, along western seaboard and into the western midlands.

don't say things like that Deep. I am getting all emotional

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

don't say things like that Deep. I am getting all emotional

If I remember Irish Meteorological Service article on this event correctly, Co Clare was esp badly hit, as was western Mayo. I suspect that if this had happened in the Dublin region, this would have been a much fabled and much mentioned event.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

That would be the optimum scenario for the southern half of the country, but for the northern half, a direct Arctic feed with troughing would be more the vibe. Anyone that might doubt this just reflect back to April 1917, when the possibly the most severe and intense falls of snow of the 20th century crippled counties in the north, along western seaboard and into the western midlands.

the optimum scenario for all still remains the polar low, while you wouldn't get a foot of snow out of it, the bulk of the country would at least get a three-four hour fall of fairly heavy snow.

to some this winter will be remarkable for the exceptional duration of cold- which i don't dispute that it was, but for me looking back on this winter, it has been an extremely frustrating one. yes, we've had snow days at lower levels but nothing to make this winter stand out...
we nearly had a classic event just before christmas. if the temperature then had been just a degree colder some parts of the country would have had a noteworthy amount of lieing snow. instead we just got two days of cold rain and sleet. it's a recurring theme in this country- either england robs our snow or the temperature is a degree or two on the wrong side...
we came so close, but unlike those fabled winter years, we missed out on a classic event:(:(