Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

poppygirlx

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
Were expected to get snow next week!?
WHEN MY MOCKS ARE ON?

ARE YOU ****ING SERIOUS?

Pangea

http://oceanfm.ie/news/2010/02/17/more-snowfall-unlikely-in-coming-days/


More snowfall “unlikely” in coming days

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

There's a subtle cooling taking place from early tomorrow morning which should be enough to kickstart the Irish Sea as the low to our south tracks eastward over southern England. Any showers that make landfall should be snow above around 150m, giving a few cms locally in parts of the east.

With the steering winds turning more northerly tomorrow afternoon, and upper lapse rates steepening as a pool of colder 500hPa temperatures approach the northwest, the action will switch to the north and west, with some beefy showers merging into linear systems, likely giving decent coverings on hills there.








Then an interesting feature for 12Z Friday picked up by the NAE but not the GFS.....a possible polar low to our north??!! The ingredients are in place, and the NAE shows it as a tight warm-core system.....if it were the GFS then I wouldn't believe it, but the NAE has yet to fail us!!

One to watch!!!

thats a ramp by your standards su! usally not a chance of snow in your view which is usually what happens.

Pangea

Lets face it met eireann cant forecast a drop of snow, at least met uk had a warning for snow for fermanagh and them counties in the early hours of this morning ,look at rtes link showing the snow, then at bottom it says to be updated visit met.ie , yeah right lol.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

http://oceanfm.ie/news/2010/02/17/more-snowfall-unlikely-in-coming-days/


More snowfall “unlikely” in coming days

John Eagleton from Met Eireann says further snow is not expected but the temperatures will be staying low until the end of the month.

well, judging by the latest model runs it looks like he is wrong about temperatures staying low until the end of the month. also, he didn't expect the snow in north and north west last night
so he could well be wrong about no more snow falling, as once the low moves east it should allow showers to develop over the north and north west.

M.T. Cranium

I'm thinking there is a slight chance of snow brushing the southeast tonight, and a good chance of scattered snow showers in Donegal, Sligo and Mayo late tonight and tomorrow, possibly extending a bit further afield into parts of nearby counties. Wouldn't be surprised if one or two more people got lucky and have some snow photos to share, but a more widespread opportunity could develop on Saturday in the south. The main problem there might be mixing as uppers look close to marginal. Would therefore suggest a better chance on hills in inland southern counties on the weekend.

One place it won't snow is here (sunny and 12 C at the moment, fore!) :cool:

derekon

Pangea wrote: »

U mean u are talking about an event that will affect ur area, if this freak 4 inches landed down south then it would be an event i guess
:rolleyes:;)

I think that is a fair point Pangea

Everything in Ireland is centred around the Dublin area due to the size of the population.

A blizzard in Leitrim is not going to make national news as there is only 134 people living there

Derek

Redsunset

Saturday's forecasted 850hpa upper air from ECM



http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010021712/seethumb/on/72/ch/62cd417a55.html



And 500hpa


http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt500/2010021712/seethumb/on/72/ch/0d5fbb4697.html





GFS precip

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/pcp/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/40e42fab00.html




GFS 850hpa

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/71f0ad853d.html



GFS 2m temps


http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/t2m/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/3249c4b452.html



So tis a marginal one at the moment if the charts play out as they are,which they won't.

Midlands seem to have best chance of wintryness

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Saturday's forecasted 850hpa upper air from ECM



http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010021712/seethumb/on/72/ch/62cd417a55.html



And 500hpa


http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/ecmwf_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt500/2010021712/seethumb/on/72/ch/0d5fbb4697.html





GFS precip

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/pcp/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/40e42fab00.html




GFS 850hpa

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/thgt850/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/71f0ad853d.html



GFS 2m temps


http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/t2m/2010021718/seethumb/on/57/ch/3249c4b452.html



So tis a marginal one at the moment if the charts play out as they are,which they won't.

Midlands seem to have best chance of wintryness

Thanks for the links and update Redsunset

Unfortunately snow in Ireland will nearly always come down to that one word - "marginal" :mad:

How good it would be one winter, just one bloody winter to see a severe weather warning from Met Eireann for heavy snow and blizzards for the ISLAND of Ireland.

Alas, I don't think we will see such snow (1947, 1963, 1982) in our lifetimes. Even with the recent record breaking spell, snow fall amounts were pitiful

My one gripe with Irish weather is that when it is cold enough to snow, there is never any precipitation and then when there is precipitation, it brings mild air with it. We can never win and its so frustrating :mad:

Derek

Pangea

derekon wrote: »

A blizzard in Leitrim is not going to make national news as there is only 134 people living there

Derek

U mean 132 , sure John n Mary leitrim left the country :pac::pac:


On a serious note , it doesnt matter to me if theres snow on a widespread scale, as long as my area get tonnes of snow that is a snow event for me.
Im sure the same goes for everyone else in their selfish little world, only reason its quiet on here when it snows the majority of time is because it has snowed in the north, the forum gets really active when it snows in the east or south because of the many posters down there and that is understandable but can sometimes lead to the north being overlooked on forecasts or on thread subjects

ninebeanrows

SU you could have spotted something earlier.

18z GFS blows it up and NAE conistently going for it..

Think it will track down west coast before perhaps making a right turn over us.

ninebeanrows

Our prospective Polar low according to NAE at 48hrs:D

Well to the northwest moving southeastwards.

Redsunset

Yep your right she's still holding it strong.









And at +48 its warm core shows well when viewing dewpoints





Im liking some penetration inland of those showers.

All eyes on the NAE folks

highdef

The latest GFS output is rolling out now and it shows the Friday night/Saturday snow event to be affecting the south of the country. Another southwards shift. This is quite exciting at this stage.

Also, it is now showing some extremely heavy snow on Sunday night and into monday, for the southern half of the country. Currently 8 - 12" being shown for the south midlands and the south west :eek:

Another few outputs will be needed to see if this is a trend

If only.......

forkassed

A snow fest on Sunday Night if this verifies

darkman2

UPDATE on OP


The forecast stands as per the OP. Some have already seen heavy snow - most will see it before the end of the month. It's marginal at the best of times but a significant snowfall is on the cards at some stage in the next 7 days aswell. Keep up to date here. Getting much colder later this week and the weekend - into next week.

M.T. Cranium

Forkassed, I see that system also depicted on the 00z run of the GGEM, tracking across nw France into se England and the North Sea and deepening to about 968 mbs by early Tuesday. This is the energy peak known as northern max in the lunar cycle too. I think it could be a significant event, waiting to see what the ECM says about it.

This past week may have underperformed to some extent but on the other hand, this winter seems to have no quit in it, too bad we can't get one going here for our Winter Olympics, although the conditions have improved today (at least the rain has stopped). :cool:

forkassed

It would be dissapointing if we didnt get something half decent with all the cold and low pressure about.
The severe cold air mostly brings with it drier conditions so its nice to see the lows swinging around even though they bring more marginal conditions. A better chance of a nice accumulation in this set up as fermanagh witnessed yesterday morning.:)

DOCARCH

Met E going with an anything goes forecast:

The cold spell will continue. Daytime highs will mostly range 3 to 7 C, and there will be frost in places each night - it will be widespread on most or all of the nights, and severe at times, with air temperatures falling to between - 4 and - 7 C in places. With winds often fairly light, there is a continuing risk of fog patches also. Most parts of the country will have a good deal of dry clear weather overall, with bright sunshine at times, and some areas will remain dry throughout. However, there will be some precipitation in places as well - mostly in the form of scattered heavy showers which will mainly affect coastal regions (with the Ulster, Connacht, and west Munster coasts most at risk from these), but possibly occurring in longer or more widespread outbreaks on occasions. Where precipitation occurs on mountains it will be largely or entirely snow and will give some accumulations. Nearer sea level, precipitation where it occurs will vary between rain, sleet and snow depending on the temperature, and could produce occasional falls of snow almost anywhere (with the northwest most at risk).

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Met E going with an anything goes forecast:

The cold spell will continue. Daytime highs will mostly range 3 to 7 C, and there will be frost in places each night - it will be widespread on most or all of the nights, and severe at times, with air temperatures falling to between - 4 and - 7 C in places. With winds often fairly light, there is a continuing risk of fog patches also. Most parts of the country will have a good deal of dry clear weather overall, with bright sunshine at times, and some areas will remain dry throughout. However, there will be some precipitation in places as well - mostly in the form of scattered heavy showers which will mainly affect coastal regions (with the Ulster, Connacht, and west Munster coasts most at risk from these), but possibly occurring in longer or more widespread outbreaks on occasions. Where precipitation occurs on mountains it will be largely or entirely snow and will give some accumulations. Nearer sea level, precipitation where it occurs will vary between rain, sleet and snow depending on the temperature, and could produce occasional falls of snow almost anywhere (with the northwest most at risk).

covering all bases there...will be interesting to see how it unfolds. showers look to be mostly to be confined to western coastal counties...hope they penetrate inland a bit.

jambofc

-3.7/-4.5
hard frost

anyone any snow to report?
few showers bubbling up off the west coast and the irish sea,on latest radar.

irish1967

Nothing here yet. Skirting the coast. Keeping a close eye on the radar. Holidaying in the little village of Dunkineely this week.

snowjon

jambofc wrote: »

-3.7/-4.5
hard frost

anyone any snow to report?
few showers bubbling up off the west coast and the irish sea,on latest radar.

Just had a light sleet flurry here in Bangor - the radar show convection kicking off again in the North Channel and the wind direction is much better today for sending it this direction - fingers crossed!

Speak Now

DOCARCH wrote: »

Met E going with an anything goes forecast:

The cold spell will continue. Daytime highs will mostly range 3 to 7 C, and there will be frost in places each night - it will be widespread on most or all of the nights, and severe at times, with air temperatures falling to between - 4 and - 7 C in places. With winds often fairly light, there is a continuing risk of fog patches also. Most parts of the country will have a good deal of dry clear weather overall, with bright sunshine at times, and some areas will remain dry throughout. However, there will be some precipitation in places as well - mostly in the form of scattered heavy showers which will mainly affect coastal regions (with the Ulster, Connacht, and west Munster coasts most at risk from these), but possibly occurring in longer or more widespread outbreaks on occasions. Where precipitation occurs on mountains it will be largely or entirely snow and will give some accumulations. Nearer sea level, precipitation where it occurs will vary between rain, sleet and snow depending on the temperature, and could produce occasional falls of snow almost anywhere (with the northwest most at risk).

I mean...come on Met i.e, we're back to giving the basics now are we :rolleyes:
Depending on Temp, i.e we really dont have a clue

rhonin

Heavy frost here too. -3.5C.

snowjon

The sleet has turned into snow here in Bangor :D

snowjon

The snow is settling here - still coming down heavily :eek:

ninebeanrows

snowjon wrote: »

The snow is settling here - still coming down heavily :eek:

Yea a few showers in the channel and a few off the Irish east coast also.

snow ghost

The few showers we've had here have been of rain.

ninebeanrows

NAE has seemed to have dropped the polar low but may bring a feature across southern parts of the country tomorrw night.