Freezing Weather Discussion - Widespread Snow Tonight/Tuesday

SpitfireIV

Heres a news story for you all. Snow traps 30 people in a pub in the UK for 3 days!

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2792438/Snow-traps-30-in-pub-for-3-days-over-New-Year.html

snaps

i see shannon radar is off again. someone needs to put 50p in the meter!

nacho libre

Felixdhc wrote: »

When should this reach Ireland? - And also, I assume we need to stay in a NE airflow to benefit from this?

i think late morning or tomorrow afternoon. it could be a hit and miss affair- the east could get it or maybe it will be the midlands or only the west and northwest. it will be interesting to see what it decides to do.

WolfeIRE

Felixdhc wrote: »

When should this reach Ireland? - And also, I assume we need to stay in a NE airflow to benefit from this?

run the radar at http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760. You will see how it is moving thios direction at present. It will continue the run here as winds shift N to NE later tonight or tomorrow morn.

The intensity of this low or front is the main question at this stage. Others here are more qualified to answer that.

snowjon

Thanks for the warm welcome everyone!

I think my reports from Bangor will be useful in the coming week - if we get snow here it's good news - any marginal situations here usually produce rain/sleet, so snow falling in Bangor is good news for other coastal/low lying locations in North and East Ireland

WolfeIRE

jenzz wrote: »

Temp 4.2 dp-2.5.

Wolfe - Hows OUR new baby ???:D

great Jenzz. Feeding well (every 2-3 hrs) so we are getting some sleep. Public health nurse is dropping in today so I am sure everything will be fine. He is eating and sleeping, eating and sleeping ...typical man!

Thanks for asking:)

Defcol

How will Navan area be fixed over the next few days? took me 1 hour 30 mins up the N3 to Blanchardstown this morning... brrrrrrr

Su Campu

The 11Z TAF for Belfast gives a moderate chance of decent periods of HEAVY snow from 7-10am tomorrow.....

TAF EGAA 041057Z 0412/0512 23005KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0415/0424 4000 -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0416/0422 1400 SN BKN007 BECMG 0421/0424 34011KT PROB40 TEMPO 0507/0510 0500 +SN BKN005=

The Dublin TAF is much the same as the 05Z....low chance of light snow showers overnight

TAF EIDW 041100Z 0412/0512 24007KT 9999 SCT020 BECMG 0412/0415 27011KT PROB30 TEMPO 0419/0422 4000 -SHRASN SCT005 BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 0502/0506 3000 -SHSN BKN007 BECMG 0501/0504 31013KT=

Villain

Su Campu wrote: »

Oak Park in carlow is only at -3 at 10am, so it must be instrument error, and the lack of reported dewpoint in the PsMETAR below would hint at that.


PsMETAR JOHN 041000Z AUTO 34006KT 9999NDV OVC048/// M12/// 1023 MSL=

PsMETAR OKPK 041000Z AUTO 35004KT 9999NDV NCD M03/M03 1024 MSL=

Going on my station I think that reading from Oak park may have been correct

Su Campu

Villain wrote: »

Going on my station I think that reading from Oak park may have been correct

Johnstown Castle has stopped reporting temperature/dewpoints

PsMETAR JOHN 041100Z AUTO 34006KT 9999NDV OVC045/// ///// //// MSL=

billy the squid

feckin Shannon radar banjaxed again. very unreliable lately.

becoming overcast here in Limerick and at a guess I would say it is still below zero. waiting for 12:20 report.

maquiladora

New Met Eireann forecast is out :

04 January 2010 11:38

Today

Still very cold this afternoon with highest air temperatures only -1 to 4 degrees and frost persisting in many areas. Some wintry showers today and patches of freezing fog but many areas continuing dry and sunny.
Tonight

A band of wintry showers will move southwards over Ireland tonight producing fresh snow in places and icy conditions countrywide. Lowest temperatures zero to -5 degrees.


Tomorrow

Sunny spells tomorrow Tuesday but freezing conditions continuing through the day with a scattering of snow showers also.

snowjon

Su Campu wrote: »

The 11Z TAF for Belfast gives a moderate chance of decent periods of HEAVY snow from 7-10am tomorrow.....

TAF EGAA 041057Z 0412/0512 23005KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0415/0424 4000 -SHRASN BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 0416/0422 1400 SN BKN007 BECMG 0421/0424 34011KT PROB40 TEMPO 0507/0510 0500 +SN BKN005=

Very interesting - Thanks Su! Things are trending in the right for snow

Takca

Its been snowing in Ballymote, Sligo for about the last hour or so, I'd say about
1CM so far, looks like its stopping now but the cloud cover is still around.

TheBastard

Hey

Met.ie has changed its forecast again since this morning, they seem to be saying nothing much happening tonight! and maybe snow wednesday?
They've been Brutal since the start of this cold snap, they keep saying "remaining cold with a chance of wintery showers" Talk about Broad statements?? they are afraid of their lived to make a call on the weather- even a forecast of maybe 12 hours!

By the way you all give out about Gerry? Evelyn is the worst by far!

Su Campu

The HIRLAM doesn't pick up on that low/polar low near Scotland at all.

Midnight tonight




...but does have a little something develop over northern England, which could make things interesting fpr the east coast by morning.

4am




Midday tomorrow

WolfeIRE

maquiladora wrote: »

New Met Eireann forecast is out :

04 January 2010 11:38

Today

Still very cold this afternoon with highest air temperatures only -1 to 4 degrees and frost persisting in many areas. Some wintry showers today and patches of freezing fog but many areas continuing dry and sunny.
Tonight

A band of wintry showers will move southwards over Ireland tonight producing fresh snow in places and icy conditions countrywide. Lowest temperatures zero to -5 degrees.


Tomorrow

Sunny spells tomorrow Tuesday but freezing conditions continuing through the day with a scattering of snow showers also.

Not location specific which underlines that we are now in Nowcast mode (as usual). The weather warning has been removed as well!

They have upgraded the Munster forecast for snow mind you. "Tomorrow will be very cold with wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow. Maximum temperatures of zero to 3 degrees C in northerly breezes."

Earlier they had said isolated wintry showers.

Scubadevils

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Not location specific which underlines that we are now in Nowcast mode (as usual). The weather warning has been removed as well!

I've noticed that a few times over the last few days, they remove the weather warning and then it appears again later with some changes.

A couple of light flurries in the Athlone area, but amounting to nothing.

Su Campu

Johnstown Castle back in business now with temp +1, DP -4°C

PsMETAR JOHN 041200Z AUTO 33006KT 9999NDV OVC042/// 01/M04 1022 MSL=

Redsunset

Conditions are savage for a full blown polar low to develope.

The 500mb temp are at minus 40 where its located as of 6pm






And by 6am the minus 40 goes across scotland.






This is one that formed in 2001 to north east scotland with almost matching 500mb temps.





850mb temps should not be a problem as is sea temp.

I know its still a long shot but one can't help feel at least a little bit excited about the prospects

ninebeanrows

Its very possible one will form.

But we will just have to watch the satellites/Radars from this evening, overnight and through tomorrow./

ronbyrne2005

is dishwasher salt ok for gritting your pathways?

Su Campu

Unfortunately it's not only -40°C H500 that guarantees a polar low, we need an existing low pressure system with a baroclinic zone on its western part, and a H500 trough with PVA. We MAY have most or all of those in place later today, but it's really on a knife edge....

WolfeIRE

redsunset wrote: »

Conditions are savage for a full blown polar low to develope.

excellent red. It is very exciting. If it continued on its current SW track it would hit us no prob.

The GEFS says it will effect the North, North West and West.

The UKMO pushes it further to the NW

ffarrell

Clouding up a bit here in West Dublin where current temperature is -1 and greezing cold. Two or three degrees colder than yesterday. Canal frozen solid as are the small lakes in the Phoenix park. Still white verywhere.:D

snow ghost

Felixdhc wrote: »

I've noticed that a few times over the last few days, they remove the weather warning and then it appears again later with some changes.

Met Eireann forecasters should considering changing their style to giving percentage chances of possible scenarios as oppossed to what appears to be them covering all bases with generalisations and not being the persons to make a major balls-up prediction.

The Irish people are sophisticated enough to understand that the weather is so dynamic that it can't be gauranteed - so if they committed more to definitive opinions of what they think may happen and got it wrong we'd forgive them... sometimes.;)

Imagine if soccer pundits before a game did a met eireann and said "well we think there is a possibility that Man United may win but also Leeds may win and a draw is also possible or either team could lose".

Redsunset

Su Campu wrote: »

Unfortunately it's not only -40°C H500 that guarantees a polar low, we need an existing low pressure system with a baroclinic zone on its western part, and a H500 trough with PVA. We MAY have most or all of those in place later today, but it's really on a knife edge....

Correct and right.

Scubadevils

WolfeIRE wrote: »

excellent red. It is very exciting. If it continued on its current SW track it would hit us no prob.

The GEFS says it will effect the North, North West and West.

We need it to nudge more east, giving the entire country a good dumping!

dedon

IS there much chance of snow in Limerick city this evening or tonight? Will that band reach us here??