Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 10-12-2011 8:39am

Saturday, 10 December, 2011
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ALERT for icy roads this morning in parts of southeast, central and north-central Ireland until 10:00 (and later in highest elevations) ... ADVANCE ALERT continued for outbreaks of heavy rainfalls and very strong winds Monday-Tuesday, and apparently Thursday-Friday ... details remain somewhat uncertain.

Full moon today at 14:36 GMT ... an eclipse of the Moon takes place visible in Asia, Australia and the Pacific regions.

TODAY ... Eastern counties may enjoy some sunshine at times, while the west sees more cloud and scattered light (and rather sleety) showers. Some icy roads may be encountered until frost breaks around 0930 or so. After that it may warm up slightly with highs 5-8 C. A more organized band of rain with high elevation sleet or wet snow will develop across the west by afternoon and evening. Winds will back to southerly and increase to moderate 20-35 mph later.

TONIGHT ... Periods of light rain (3-7 mms on average) with hill sleet or snow, foggy, partial clearing from west towards sunrise with winds veering to westerly 20-40 mph, lows 2-5 C (milder east).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing sleety or even wintry showers, cold, winds westerly 25-40 mph, highs 6-9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Icy sections on roads for part of the night where skies clear, slight frost, then turning milder in a rising southerly wind, lows -2 to +3.

MONDAY ... Becoming very mild with periods of rain, heavy at times, 20-40 mms potential, winds SSW 30-50 mph and potentially stormy by evening with gusts to 65 mph. Highs 11-13 C.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY ... Very windy with a sharp drop in temperatures leading to more of a wintry mix in showers of hail, sleet and snow (cold rain on south coast) ... winds may be as strong as 50-80 mph and could reach storm force in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will fall overnight and become steady in the range 3-5 C if not slightly colder in higher elevations on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing windy with the risk of a renewed outbreak of severe wind gusts, but certainly at least 35-55 mph westerly possibly backing to southerly later, chilly although becoming slightly milder with lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Models currently warn of a very intense low tracking close to Ireland ... details are bound to change but there is potential for storm force winds gusting over 80 mph from southwest veering to west with this system, so stay tuned ... temperatures would most likely moderate to about 8-10 C given the track and another episode of 20-30 mms rain could accompany. Wintry showers would likely follow by late Friday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If you can take any more weather, it will likely be coming from more of a cold northerly direction by the following weekend and then eventually a milder southwest flow seems to dominate the longer-range guidance in the week before Christmas.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The energy that will develop into the Monday night storm for Ireland is currently nothing more than a weak windshift through eastern Canada and New England with a few flurries and temperatures near freezing. Development begins later today when this gets over the Gulf stream south of Nova Scotia. With the exception of this weak system, most of eastern and central North America are dry and relatively mild or at least seasonable. A chinoook has developed into Alberta and western Saskatchewan, but the west coast remains dry and rather cold. The southwest states are warming up in a southeast flow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was another unusually calm and clear day with highs near 4 C ... frosty with a bright full moon at present ... that will set in an eclipsed state towards 0700h here, doubt that I will see it.

There is still considerable uncertainty about how severe the winds may become on Monday night, visit the ongoing discussion thread to find out the latest speculation from the forum crew. Same goes for the second storm (some suggestions of a more continuous storm linking through Wednesday), the forum is bound to be busy all weekend. Would suggest that if you have things to store or tie down, do it today or Sunday if you find a few hours of settled weather as Monday may become too wet and windy for comfort.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2011 8:12am

Sunday, 11 December, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds and heavy rain on Monday, with further gales or storm force gusts later Tuesday and possibly lasting even into Wednesday ... ADVANCE ALERT for a major windstorm indicated for late Thursday and Friday, confidence about 60%.

TODAY ... Scattered showers becoming rather sleety or even wintry on higher terrain, as temperatures fall slightly with winds shifting westerly 20-35 mph ... not much accumulation, 3-5 mms at most, coating of sleet or snow on highest inhabited areas and summits ... some sunny breaks developing later with highs 5-8 C, feeling cold in the wind.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, possible frost or icy conditions evening and towards midnight before cloud and strong southerly winds raise temperatures with rain to follow by morning, possibly beginning as sleet or wet snow in parts of the northeast. Lowest temperatures -2 to +3 C likely before or around midnight, about 5 C by morning. Winds increasing to SSW 20-40 mph.

MONDAY ... Becoming very windy especially south and east coasts as winds increase further to 40-60 mph. Wind-driven rain for many regions developing through the morning and ending with squally showers and some thunder and hail from west to east by afternoon (evening east), winds veering to westerly and decreasing somewhat to 20-40 mph for a time, highest temperatures 9-11 C although it may feel a lot colder for much of the day.

MONDAY NIGHT ... There is still the risk of strong winds but also, a break in the complex storm may allow winds to calm down considerably for some part of the night with temperatures not much above freezing and some sleety or wintry showers around. Very strong winds may develop just around sunrise in western and northern counties. Lows generally 2-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Very windy and cold with sleety showers or longer periods of mixed precipitation, snow developing on higher ground, winds WSW 30-50 mph but with potential to increase to 50-80 mph especially in Connacht and later Ulster. Highs 4-7 C but temperatures tending to drop off at times in heavier bouts of sleet. Icy or slippery roads in higher elevations. Some thunder or hail possible. Tuesday night will continue very unpleasant and possibly stormy at times with mixed sleety showers and some further snow accumulations on higher ground. Severe icing may develop on higher summits affecting communications installations (Tactical, that's for you).

WEDNESDAY ... There is a risk of another round of very strong winds and more certainly the continuation of moderate cold westerly gales although with a trend to more rain and less sleet in the showers, and a rising snow line for some part of the day. Lows around 2 C, highs around 7 C, winds at least 30-40 mph from west (possibly as high as 60-70 for some period).

THURSDAY ... I know, this is getting rather grim ... cloudy with intervals of sleet or snow possible, winds dropping off for a while and backing to east then southeast, before rising to gale or storm force late in the day with heavy rain and temperatures briefly soaring to about 10 C. A major storm could develop and bring winds of 60-100 mph (if models verify).

FRIDAY ... Very windy and turning much colder again, winds veering to NW and staying very strong (potentially 60-100 mph) with passing showers of sleet or hail. Snow could become heavy in some parts of the north and west with accumulations, blowing snow. Temperatures steady near 4 C in south and east, and near 1 C further north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If anyone stays on the island, you may have about three more days of cold, windy weather with snow showers and temperatures not far from freezing, followed by a milder spell that could become very windy again by about Christmas Eve.

Seriously, I hope the first storm proves to be tolerable and the second one gets downgraded ... because if not, the model depictions at present would almost certainly bring moderate if not severe damage from storm force winds and there's also the issue of the snow in the aftermath. As mentioned in the Alert, my confidence in this storm actually developing at anything like full intensity is just a bit more than 50-50. At the lower end, anything is still possible, ranging from a moderate event closer to the Tuesday storm, or even something that would amount to a "fail" for the models. The one ray of hope is that many things need to happen to get this storm to develop as forecast, it hasn't really even begun its life cycle yet.

As always, keep checking the discussion threads to get the consensus of various experienced weather watchers.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Will keep this brief, most of the continent is seeing a quiet and rather mild weather pattern, but locally near the centre of high pressure that ridges from Lake Superior to British Columbia, it can be quite cold at night especially ... there is not much snow cover anywhere except in eastern Quebec and Labrador left over from the low currently near Iceland. ... highs in the northeast U.S. are expected to be 10-14 C today, but more like 0-3 C in the Midwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Most of the day was gloomy and cold with drizzle and fog. This is basically the only rain we've seen in what is normally a very wet time of year. Highs were only about 2-3 deg C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2011 8:47pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11 December _ 7:45 p.m.
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A few wintry showers can be expected on a hit and miss scattered basis this evening and towards midnight before the band dies out over eastern counties. There are some reports of thunder in the southwest with these, expect the usual variations with elevation, rain near sea level, hail a little higher up and sleet or snow on hills, but some places remaining dry. A slight frost may follow and roads could become very icy in some parts of the inland south later this evening, with improvements coming later in the night as temperatures will tend to rise before morning in the onset of a southerly wind that will eventually rise to almost gale force in places on Monday. See the original forecast for further details moving forward, no big changes to outlook on the period Monday to Wednesday.

At the moment, the Thursday-Friday storm potential has been cast in some doubt by completely different outcomes on the various models we use, and all we can really say at this point is to maintain a watch for potential storm conditions, with the next round of intermediate forecasts due around 10 p.m. (watch for comments to update on the discussion thread) with the 18z GFS model, then the more comprehensive updates at about 0400h with the whole suite of models giving their 00z forecasts. I really don't have a strong feeling either way on this, but the abrupt changes that we have seen on the European model could be due to some factor not incorporated into the other models' data, whether in error or as an improvement, just not sure. Of course I continue to hope this storm does not come off the way some models have shown because of the damage potential. -- MTC

Sunny and 3 deg C here at 11:45, heading out to work on my tan. :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2011 8:32am

Monday, 12 December, 2011
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ALERT continued for heavy rainfalls later today, with strong winds developing mainly for south and east coast today, but spreading later to most western and northern counties, possibly lasting much of the week ... also the risk of wintry showers or local snowfalls starting tomorrow morning and possibly lasting on and off to Friday

TODAY ... Any morning sunshine will be short-lived before cloud rapidly spreads in from west, followed by rain and strong southerly winds 25-45 mph with some higher gusts near south and east coasts ... rainfalls 10-20 mms ... highs by afternoon or evening 9-11 C ... winds veering more to west with some squally showers, hail and thunder possible, afternoon west to evening east.

TONIGHT ... Turning colder in stages, winds perhaps moderating slightly for a time before picking up from WSW 30-50 mph towards morning, mixed wintry showers developing.

TUESDAY ... Very windy and cold with mixed wintry showers or longer periods of sleet or cold rain with hill snowfalls of 5-15 cms (rain-snow line is likely to be near 200m) ... this wintry precip will not be confined to north, in fact some parts of the northwest may find a higher rain-snow line at times as milder air wraps around the strong low drifting towards Donegal Bay ... winds will steadily increase to about 40-65 mph and could peak at 50-75 mph in some exposed west coastal regions ... precip of about 5-8 mms will include all types and there could be thunder ... roads very slippery and at higher elevations may become impassable due to ice or snow.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... The sleety winter storm conditions will continue with perhaps slight variations in temperature, steady near 3 or 4 C for most, -1 to +1 C at higher elevations where snow may accumulate ... winds continuing very strong too, backing more to SW 40-60 mph (risk of a period of 50-80 mph winds near west coast) ... there could be some brief brighter intervals near south and east coasts but in general it will be a very bleak period.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... The major storm we discussed yesterday is now more likely to track across the south and this will at least reduce the likely impact of strong winds, forcing them more towards Cornwall and the Channel as well as parts of southern England and northern France ... however, parts of south and southeast Ireland could be clipped by these very strong winds even on this new track, and the track could shift back north, so the alert is simply downgraded for now ... stay tuned, but I now see the probability of a severe storm in Ireland closer to 30% with 50% confidence in a moderate event and 20% reserved for a minor event of some kind.

After a cold start on Thursday, temperatures will rise somewhat especially in the southeast where it may reach 8-10 C, highs 4-7 C elsewhere, but precip with this new storm could be mixed across the north for much of the day, while a spell of heavy rain may develop in the south, then the storm will be followed by a blast from the northwest bringing back the risk of snow.

SATURDAY and BEYOND ... There will be further cold and windy weather for the weekend with the risk of snow or sleet, then a milder trend next week, that could turn into a much milder pattern for a few days just around Christmas. I'm expecting that to end rather abruptly just after Christmas Day and sticking to the idea of a much colder January.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The mild, dry pattern persists across much of the east and central states (highs 8-12 C are fairly typical), with a slightly cooler high bringing a somewhat colder than normal regime to the upper Great Lakes and eastern prairies of Canada, clipping some border regions of the U.S., although much milder air is spreading north into the central plains ahead of a sluggish frontal system. There is not much wind or moisture associated with any of the fronts but some outbreaks of freezing drizzle or light snow in places.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was pleasant and sunny with a bit of a cold breeze and a high near 5 C.

If you want to follow the twists and turns of the ever-changing model runs, visit the threads in the forum.

M.T. Cranium · 12-12-2011 5:24pm

UPDATE _ Monday, 12 December _ 4:20 p.m.
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Latest guidance has required stronger wording for the ALERT for strong winds on Tuesday in Connacht and west Ulster, as well as Clare and some parts of Kerry ... WSW storm force winds are likely to set in around 0600-0800h with sustained wind speeds of 60 mph (100 km/hr) and gusts to 100 mph (160 km/hr) in the most exposed locations, and in the range of 50-80 mph in most parts of the region. These winds may be strong enough to do moderate damage to structures and trees. Any loose objects or poorly secured structures will certainly be at risk of relocation. Take any opportunity this evening or overnight to complete preparations.

With this very strong wind flow, a witches' brew of mixed wintry precipitation appears likely to develop. Blizzard conditions will spread across higher parts of the country while somewhat lower elevations will be subject to constantly changing precipitation types. Hail and rain will dominate near sea level but it could snow at times there too. As usual, some parts of the southeast will be sheltered from both the strong winds and much of the precipitation.

Travel is strongly discouraged in western and northern counties; elsewhere, consider an alternative time for any travel out of local areas, especially where it involves higher terrain.

M.T. Cranium · 13-12-2011 8:09am

Tuesday, 13 December, 2011
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ALERT continued for wind gusts today above 70 mph in many places, reaching 90 mph in exposed west coast and upland locations ... also ALERT for near-blizzard conditions and icy or impassable roads in some higher elevations mainly above 200m, squally hail or sleet showers at lower elevations. Watch for coastal flooding around high tide due to elevated tidal range especially around west coast bays and inlets.

TODAY ... Very windy and cold with snow at times mainly above 200m, heavy showers of hail or sleet, as well as rain (more likely near sea level), some thunder, and WSW gale to storm force winds reaching 50-70 mph in many places and 60-90 mph in more exposed locations. Highs about 4 C on average but closer to 2 C above 200m. Some accumulations of 5-15 cms of snow on higher terrain may block road travel in a few higher sections.

TONIGHT ... Windy although some improvements, winds SW 25-45 mph, further wintry mixed showers, snow on hills ... lows -2 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sleet or rain, snow line rising somewhat to about 300m, winds backing to SSW 30-50 mph then veering to WNW 30-50 mph later, hail and thunder possible with this windshift ... highs 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of sleet or wet snow, some accumulations especially on higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 5.

THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY ... The model consensus has now called off the intense storm, remnants of which are expected to move south of Cork towards Cornwall. This probably means the risk has gone, so for now the forecast will trend towards a cold and somewhat snowy solution, with outbreaks of sleet and snow continuing, winds picking up from the northwest reaching 30-50 mph at times later Friday, temperatures steady in the range of 1-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and windy at times on the weekend, snow showers or hail, highs only 3-5 C, frosts at night ... then turning considerably milder.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild and dry for most of the eastern half of the U.S. with temperatures about 8-12 C on the east coast and lower Great Lakes, 15-18 C in the Ohio valley and Mississippi valley (to low 20s Gulf coast). Light rain is spreading north through parts of Texas and Oklahoma towards the central plains states with snow in some higher western sections of those states. A colder air mass dominates from central Canada east to Quebec with sub-freezing daytime temperatures. Dry and cool on the west coast while the desert southwest becomes showery and about 12-15 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and about 5 C on Monday, clear and very cold tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 14-12-2011 8:26am

Wednesday, 14 December, 2011
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ALERT for some localized ice and snow mostly in higher parts of southwest and north today ... some squally showers later ... and the risk of strong wind gusts near the south coast mid-day.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although with some brighter intervals eastern counties, widespread wintry showers with some ice and snow mainly above 150m (some melting in that zone later) and hail or rain showers lower down, the heavier showers mostly in western and especially south-western counties today. Amounts 5-10 mms or equivalent in west, 1-3 east. Winds increasing across the south to reach SSW 30-50 mph, risk of stronger gusts, then veering to WNW 30-50 mph mid-afternoon. Winds across the north and near the east coast are likely to remain relatively moderate. Highs 4-7 C except briefly 8-10 C south Kerry and possibly around Cork. Some thunder and heavy hail likely mid-day in west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers at times, moderate westerly winds, cold or very cold, lows -3 to +1 C. Winds W 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of light sleet or wet snow, winds becoming variable although mainly southwest across west and north to east across the east. Some locally heavier snowfalls could develop on a trough in central counties. Slight risk of a period of rain and strong winds in southeast around evening. Highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with outbreaks of hail and snow, lows near 2 C but some local frosts, then highs near 5 C. Winds increasing to NW 30-50 mph, snow generally light but some accumulations 3-7 cms. Hail or rain showers in outer west coastal fringes.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Both days rather cold with some sunshine, some passing snow or hail showers. Winds moderate or light, mainly north to northwest. Lows around -3 C and highs around 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very mild for about a week, possibly dry if cloudy, moderate west to southwest winds, highs possibly reaching 9-12 C just before Christmas. Early indications for Christmas, windy and mild, possible showers, followed by a steady if perhaps slight cooling trend on more of a northwest flow.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern U.S. partly cloudy and turning very mild, highs 14-17 C. Further west, cloudy, humid, warm with outbreaks of light rain, southerly winds, highs 15-20 C. This system has a bit of sleet on its colder northwest margins but not much snow, then to the north across northern plains and prairies, relatively cold with some ice fog and low cloud, light snow in places ahead of weak fronts coming inland, and light snow over the western mountains in some places, trending to near normal/dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Another dry and cool day here, but with a mid-level overcast this time, highs 2-3 C. Expecting some light snow or sleet next couple of days, nothing very heavy.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2011 7:46am

Thursday, 15 December, 2011
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There now appears to be no chance that the Atlantic storm will veer off the model prediction track (into the Channel and northeast France) but will be watching closely anyway ... with the predicted sleet or snow next 3-4 days there could be some icy roads in places, especially higher elevations.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy across the south, outbreaks of rain or sleet but snow confined mainly to high elevations above 400m. There could be bursts of wet snow at lower elevations but this may not stick. Winds variable and tending towards northwest later. Further north, partly cloudy with more isolated outbreaks of rain, sleet or wet snow (again, mainly on higher ground). Highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming more windy (NW 20-40 mph) with some intervals of sleet or wet snow, changing to rain at times near sea level. Lows zero to 2 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further outbreaks of sleet or wet snow, coastal rain showers, in a westerly wind (25-45 mph) veering back to northwest later at similar speeds, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, winds northwest to north 15-30 mph, some intervals of moderate snow possible in parts of the north, light snow or sleet further south. Lows -2 to 2 C, highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a cold start with heavy frosts, lows -4 to -1 C, then highs of 5-8 C with light or moderate winds from WNW.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, chance of showers, turning milder especially in west, highs to 10 C there, 6-9 C east.

OUTLOOK ... Very mild mid-week, dry for most, some light rain could affect far north, in a moderate WSW flow, highs 11-13 C up to about Christmas Eve, possibly becoming windy and showery around Christmas Day, the pattern may become considerably colder in stages after that.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Continuing very mild on the east coast, rain spreading closer to the large cities through the day from the west, highs generally 13-16 C. Turning colder in stages through the Great Lakes and Midwest, although starting out close to 10 C, and precip largely rain or later sleet ... cold and dry central plains north into Canadian prairies, except for local low cloud and slight accumulations of snow ... a weak disturbance on the west coast is spreading light snow and low-elevation sleet or rain inland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... On Wednesday we finally saw a small amount of rain, but less than 10 mms, and it was about 4 deg C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2011 7:22am

Friday, 16 December, 2011
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ALERT for further snowfalls of 1-3 cms in some western counties, and icy roads especially problematic in central counties to mid-morning. Further outbreaks of light snow and overnight icy roads can be expected until Monday morning.

TODAY ... Snow showers in some western counties will give a further 1-3 cms before either ending or turning to sleet. Less showery in eastern counties but still the risk of mixed wintry showers. Cold with moderate W to NW winds 20-40 mph, highs 3-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Moderate or even heavy snow showers (potential for 3-8 cms) may develop inland northwest, with sleet showers closer to sea level. This activity will extend into other regions although not as heavy later in the night. Cold, especially ahead of the snow in any clear spells, lows -3 to zero C. Icy roads are likely to become quite widespread outside the major cities and a few very temperate coastal locations.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, further snow showers likely (2-5 cms) with some turning to hail, sleet or rain mid-day in strong NW winds 30-50 mph, cold with highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... After some overnight frost and light snow in a few locations (icy roads again a problem) expect some sunny breaks and less windy, not feeling as cold, lows -4 to zero C, highs 4-8 C.

MONDAY ... Turning milder with drizzle or light rain, some fog or mist, winds westerly 20-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

TUES-WED ... Very mild, cloudy for most, some light rain possible in north, moderate SW to W winds stronger in north, lows around 3 C and highs 11-13.

OUTLOOK ... Towards Christmas Eve, expect a gradual increase in wind speeds and frequency of showers in a mild southwest flow, temperatures above normal 22nd-24th (highs 10-12 C) ... around Christmas Day it may become quite windy although staying relatively mild (8-10 C) with drizzle or light rain at times in strong westerly winds. Beyond that, looks more seasonable with no clear-cut signs of much colder weather yet.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The northeast U.S. will see rain and a late cooling trend after highs near 14 C. Great Lakes, closer to normal, mixed light rain or wet snow showers, highs 0-3 C. Southeast states remain quite warm and rain is slowly advancing south but many areas will remain dry if not sunny and warm (18-22 C). Central plains into central-western Canada under a much colder air mass with sub-freezing temperatures and some light snow in places. Light snow over western mountain ranges, cloudy and cool near west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was cloudy with drizzle ending this morning, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, light northwest wind flow.

M.T. Cranium · 17-12-2011 8:08am

Saturday, 17 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Cold and windy with outbreaks of rain, sleet or (mainly over higher terrain) snow, heavier in west and north ... winds NW 25-45 mph adding chill to highs of 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers ending, clear intervals with sharp frost developing, lows -4 to -1 C. Icy roads and some freezing fog possible.

SUNDAY ... Morning sunny intervals, afternoon cloud with drizzle or light rain by evening as it turns somewhat milder, winds backing from NW to WSW, moderate at first, gusty by evening. Highs 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, breezy, a bit milder, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Very mild with moderate westerly winds backing to southwest, possibly some rain at times in north, dry but mostly cloudy in south. Lows around 3 C and highs 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK for FRIDAY (23rd) to CHRISTMAS DAY ... Windy at times, showery, staying rather mild although slightly colder late Friday into early Saturday when showers may become mixed, otherwise any showers likely to be rain as temperatures stay near or a little above normal most of the time (8-10 C).

HOLIDAY WEEK OUTLOOK ... Early indications show a windy, somewhat stormy at times, but not overly cold pattern in west to northwest winds.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The mild spell has ended for most except far eastern Canada, where it remains showery and 10-12 C in places, but the new air mass for eastern states is at seasonal normals (4-7 C) and there's no snow on the ground so it will stay rather mild this weekend ... meanwhile colder air further west is slowly modifying back to normal values also, and a southerly flow is developing. Some patchy freezing drizzle and low cloud or fog may develop in river valleys. Western Canada is warming thanks to a chinook system and weak fronts near the coast are bringing light rain there.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was overcast with drizzle or very light rain, dense fog in the morning and then low cloud mid-day, with highs of 6-8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-12-2011 8:30am

Sunday, 18 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Cold to start with some patchy ice on untreated roads (more likely in the inland southeast, east and north) ... sunny intervals for most, widely scattered light wintry showers across western counties ... moderate west winds, then increasing cloud and light rain spreading in this evening. Highs in the range of 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Light rain in some parts of the west, clear spells across eastern counties may allow some brief frost before temperatures rise there, by later tonight generally 4-7 C ... foggy in some parts by morning.

MONDAY ... Light rain or showers, becoming rather windy (SW veering to NW at 30-50 mph), sunny breaks by afternoon, highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start (isolated frost) with lows -1 to +3 C, the day should become milder with increasing cloud, light rain possible in north, westerly winds 25-45 mph, highs 8-11 C.

WED - THURS ... Very mild in a moderate to strong WSW flow (stronger winds in north) ... dry for most, some light rain at times in northwest ... lows near 3 and highs 11-13 C. Winds WSW 35-55 mph in north (20-40 mph southeast counties).

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, winds SW 40-60 mph, mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD ... Saturday (24th) likely to be a bright, breezy day with strong westerly winds, highs near 9 C ... Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day look windy and mild again, similar to mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further strong winds in frontal passages, but perhaps a gradual trend to closer high pressure by New Years. This may result in a decline in the mild temperatures if only because of colder nights and persistent inversions. To get to a truly cold pattern, probably we would need to see these highs continue to drift north or northwest over time and allow easterly winds to develop. That may be the eventual outcome but it could take until mid-January to see that kind of deep cold.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cool and dry in most eastern regions of the U.S. and Canada under a modified arctic high, temperatures near normal which would be 3-7 C for highs in the northeast states and 0-3 C in the Great lakes. Milder central states and some parts of western Canada as an "Alberta clipper" moves across the prairies dropping light snows and turning the winds to west and then northwest in parts of Alberta (and then further east on Sunday) ... much of the interior western U.S. is cold and clear under strong high pressure but that contributes to warmer Santa Ana winds in southern California, and a developing sleet-snow mix over the western parts of Texas and nearby parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a very mild and cloudy day, possibly the first above-normal day we've had here in several weeks, with a high of about 11 C. Light rain has developed this evening.

M.T. Cranium · 19-12-2011 8:24am

Monday, 19 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Light to moderate rain becoming more showery, becoming rather windy (SW veering to NW at 30-50 mph around mid-day), sunny breaks by afternoon, with further isolated showers developing mainly in Connacht and west Ulster, highs 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, fog patches, icy stretches on untreated roads in central and eastern counties, inland west ... lows -1 to +3 C except milder near northwest coasts due to onshore breezes from northwest (+5 C).

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start with roads remaining icy in some places, the day should become milder with increasing cloud, light rain possible in north, westerly winds 25-45 mph, highs 8-11 C.

WED - THURS ... Very mild in a moderate to strong WSW flow (stronger winds in north) ... dry for most, even some sunshine in the inland south, but some light rain at times in northwest ... lows near 3 and highs 11-13 C. Winds WSW 35-55 mph in north (20-40 mph southeast counties).

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain (likely to occur mainly during the early to mid morning), winds SW 40-60 mph then WNW 30-50 mph by afternoon, mild but turning a bit colder later, temperatures peaking near 11 C early and falling off gradually to 5-7 C.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD ... Saturday (24th) likely to be a bright, breezy day with strong westerly winds in the north, less windy south and possibly foggy to start there, lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 9 C ... Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day look windy and mild again, with mainly dry conditions southeast to light rain or drizzle northwest. There could be dense fog in a few places overnight and in the mornings, but Santa can handle that.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are suggesting rather stormy conditions at times beyond the 26th, with another theme being higher pressures edging past to the west and sending the flow back to northwest, slightly cooler ... as I believe that there could be a disruptive "stratospheric warming" event around the last few days of the month or in early January, timing large-scale pattern changes now becomes quite a guessing game but one where I'm guessing stormy intervals late this month and much colder at times in January.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The only active weather is a developing snowstorm in parts of western Kansas and nearby parts of the OK and TX panhandles ... this snow will move towards Minnesota and merge with a weaker system bringing light snow to parts of west-central Canada. Otherwise, to the east of this snow, very mild in a southerly flow with some light rain and (near the Gulf of Mexico) some thundershowers, highs 15-20 C in this zone, but dry for most of the eastern states and near normal in temperatures there (6-9 C). And to the west of the snowfall zones, most places are dry and cloudy with near normal temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, and mild with highs near 8 C. Just some patchy light drizzle to start the day and we're still on pace for the driest December in some time here.

M.T. Cranium · 20-12-2011 9:00am

Tuesday, 20 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Variable cloud, light rain possible in north at times, westerly winds 25-45 mph in some more exposed coastal locations but otherwise rather light for most places today, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Mild and overcast with light rain at times, fog patches, lows 6 to 9 C with winds backing to southerly.

WEDNESDAY ... Very mild and breezy with some rain at times in north, possible hazy sunshine at times in south, strong WSW winds in north (35-55 mph) although only 20-40 mph for southeast counties, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Continuing very mild and windy with scattered outbreaks of rain becoming heavier by late afternoon and evening, potential for 15-30 mms, winds SW 35-55 mph (45-65 in coastal northwest), lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain (likely to occur mainly during the early to mid morning), winds SW 40-60 mph then WNW 30-50 mph by afternoon, mild but turning a bit colder later, temperatures peaking near 11 C early and falling off gradually to 5-7 C.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD ... Saturday (24th) likely to be a bright, breezy day with strong westerly winds in the north, less windy south and possibly foggy to start there, lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 9 C ... Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day look windy and mild again, with mainly dry conditions southeast to light rain or drizzle northwest. There could be dense fog in a few places overnight and in the mornings, and there will be outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain later on the 26th in advance of a windy but colder day on the 27th with squally showers developing (some wintry mix on higher ground in north). The current outlook beyond the 27th is for unsettled and at times windy weather with a cooling trend.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild and dry in the eastern U.S. with highs 12-15 C ... rain spreading north ahead of a snowstorm in the plains states, so rather mild as far west as about Chicago to St Louis to central Texas with showers and thunderstorms near that line, highs in the rain near 15 C ... snow and blowing snow, some accumulations of 30-50 cms in the plains states (blizzard conditions past 24h in parts of KS, e CO), temps falling to about -6 C in the snowstorm with strong NE winds ... mild and dry further north once clear of the storm as a chinook develops into the prairies and northern plains states ... cloudy with light rain on the west coast, snow line about 1,000 m in the western mountains. Highs 7-10 C on the coast. Warm and dry in parts of southern California.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a cloudy day with light rain at times, high about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-12-2011 7:58am

Wednesday, 21 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, some hazy sunshine may break through in parts of the southeast, while drizzle or light rain spreads across parts of the northwest. Foggy in some coastal districts (west and northwest). Winds increasing to WSW 25-45 mph ... highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog patches or mist, cloudy for most, drizzle in places, and remaining very mild, lows generally 8-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and very mild, light rain at times, then heavier rain spreading in late day or overnight. Winds SW 30-50 mph, highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning squally showers, perhaps some thunder, turning a bit colder around sunrise as winds shift into west (30-50 mph) ... mixed showers could develop briefly over higher parts of north, but no really cold air behind the front, sunshine later with cloudy intervals. Temperatures will be steady around 9-10 C early on, then may fall a few degrees (as low as 2-4 C in northwest, but 4-7 C elsewhere), steady mid-day around 6-8 C.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Clear intervals overnight may allow slight frosts in a few parts of the southeast and fog patches as well as locally slick roads could result, but further north it may remain cloudy and stay windy enough to prevent frost ... then the day should bring a mixture of cloud and sun, gusty winds backing from west to southwest, and highs around 8-10 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) ... Partly cloudy and very mild, moderate southwest winds (strong at times in north and west), slight chance of rain in far north ... morning lows around 5 C and highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY 26th ... Continued breezy and very mild, rain possible across parts of north, winds WSW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It could stay very mild on Tuesday 27th before a series of weak fronts brings about a slow decline through New Years although at any point there may be a change in the outlook ... a "stratospheric warming" event is considered likely near the end of the month or in early January and this could speed up the evolution to much colder weather which at the moment is only evident by 5-7 Jan on the model runs.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Today will see a mild, and by afternoon showery, southwest flow reaching the larger cities of the northeast U.S., with highs near 15 C (record values are closer to 20 C). This storm is rapidly weakening and its colder "back" side is only a sleety mix with light snow at worst for the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley, that setting in by tonight after a mild, rainy start to the day. Further west, they are digging out of a snowstorm in partly cloudy and somewhat windy weather with temperatures just around freezing. Across western Canada, a strong chinook warming has returned after a cold interval, and highs in Alberta could reach 7-10 C. The B.C. coast as well as parts of the northwest U.S. are clear after a windy frontal passage Tuesday afternoon; temperatures are on the mild side around 7-9 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday started drizzly, then cleared with strong winds setting in ... temperatures fell from near 7 C to about 2-4 C in the strong winds making it feel quite cold despite an absence of frost. Strong winds have already abated this evening and it's clear and about -2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2011 8:05am

Thursday, 22 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although bright or even hazy sunny intervals in parts of east and south, drizzle or light rain at times in north and west, and very mild, highs 11-13 C, winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 35-55 mph by late afternoon. Heavy showers will develop in west by evening.

TONIGHT ... Squally showers, possible thunder, winds veering about midnight (west) to 0300h (east) to westerly 35-55 mph ... rainfalls generally 5-10 mms ... some hail or even sleet later in Connacht and west Ulster, as temperatures fall sharply across the north to 2-4 C ... lows further south about 4-6 C.

FRIDAY (23rd) ... Variable cloud with some sunny breaks developing, hail showers becoming more infrequent and confined to north, in blustery WNW winds of 25-40 mph, temperatures recovering slightly from morning lows and levelling off around 5-7 C ... frost developing by evening in eastern and central counties, but staying milder in west as winds back to southwest. Drizzle and light rain developing in a few places across northwest and north coasts overnight.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Mostly cloudy, slowly becoming milder, with winds settling into SSW at 25-45 mph ... some patchy light rain or drizzle mainly near west coast ... highs 8-11 C.

CHRISTMAS EVE will likely be quite mild and somewhat misty with steady southwest winds of 20-40 mph and temperatures steady 8-10 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY (25th) ... Very mild and mostly cloudy with patchy rain or drizzle mainly west and north, highs 11-13 C. Winds southwest 25-45 mph.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Monday 26th) ... Continuing very mild (perhaps even warm) with a few places seeing hazy sun at times, but mostly cloudy, winds WSW 30-50 mph, lows 8-10 C and highs 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Following some showers and a weak front around the end of the day Monday, Tuesday 27th could be somewhat colder but partly cloudy to sunny with highs 6-9 C. High pressure will settle in for Wednesday 28th and Thursday 29th, with frosts returning, and also some central and inland northeast locations could stay rather cold in the daytime due to an inversion (3-6 C) although near coasts it may warm up to about 8-10 C ... another gusty frontal system is indicated for Friday 30th and the outlook into the New Years Eve and Day weekend at present calls for somewhat colder weather with showers in gusty west to northwest winds at times.

As mentioned yesterday, there are vague indications of a much colder turn within a few days of the new year, especially if conditions in the upper atmosphere change to the more favourable "stratospheric warming" (warm up there means colder down here, at least in certain patterns).

Quite a change in the weather from Christmas 2010 to Christmas 2011 !!

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... It's just after midnight in the big cities of the northeast U.S. but temperatures are near 16 C ... this is basically the warm air coming your way for Christmas, and the last stages of the warm sector of the former snowstorm in the plains states (now it is much weaker crossing Ontario and Quebec with just wet flurries in places) ... later today the sun should come out at times and keep temperatures steady around 10 C in the northeast states despite a weak cold front ... from there west, conditions just become slightly colder and never get much lower than about seasonal normal values of 5 C around Chicago to 15 C around Memphis, for example ... west of that, today will see the gradual development of a weak wintry mix system over regions that just had heavy snow, so the main feature there will be icing on roads with freezing drizzle or wet snow ... this system is also dropping several inches of snow in parts of the Rockies to about Wyoming ... mild and dry across most of western Canada which is more under the influence of low pressure moving across northern regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a sunny day with some cloudy intervals, and near normal in temperature after a frosty start with black ice on side streets around the morning rush hour. Highs reached about 7 C and winds were light. There is about a normal amount of snow in nearby mountains despite the fact that we are currently sitting at 10% of normal monthly precip and 40% of the existing record low for December. Some rain is predicted for the Christmas holiday so that record may survive, but it could be close.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2011 7:57am

Friday, 23 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Becoming colder with some squally showers, mainly hail or rain, but some sleet possible on highest terrain ... winds westerly 25-45 mph ... more chance of sunny intervals in east and south by mid-day and afternoon ... further precip amounts 3-5 mms ... temperatures will now fall slightly to about 5-7 C then become steady mid-day before falling again this evening.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, slight frosts developing east, central, south inland, some problems with icy roads, but west and north likely to remain milder under spreading cloud and continuing westerly breezes ... lowest temperatures -2 to +2 C, lows close to 5 C western counties. Some light rain spreading in from west in Connacht and Ulster after midnight.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Variable cloud but overcast in north, outbreaks of rain may become heavy in Donegal and nearby counties, 10-15 mms potential, either light rain or drizzle further south in a steady backing wind becoming SW 25-45 mph by afternoon (35-55 mph Donegal) ... highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT (Christmas Eve) ... Mild and overcast with rain becoming light or drizzly, temperatures steady 8-10 C. Some fog over northern hills. Winds WSW 20-30 mph.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) ... Cloudy with light rain or drizzle northern counties, perhaps brighter intervals south, mild and breezy (SW 25-35 mph). Highs 10-13 C.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Monday 26th) ... Cloudy for most, some brighter intervals southeast, mild and breezy ... lows near 8 C and highs 11-14 C. Rain intermittent at first becoming steady later, possibly heavy in Connacht.

TUESDAY (27th) ... Showers or periods of rain, possibly some clearing mid-day or afternoon in parts of north, a touch colder with lows 4-7 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds may increase sharply towards evening in the west as an Atlantic low develops but this is not "carved in stone" yet.

WEDNESDAY (28th) ... Most guidance indicates a windy, showery day with wind directions veering from SW to NW, temperatures around 7-9 C but turning a bit colder ... showers could become somewhat sleety if not mixed in Connacht and Ulster. There is some chance of a much weaker system and partly cloudy skies, isolated showers. Consider that outcome 30% likely.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... A colder high will build up and ridge over Ireland then move rapidly off to the east allowing another surge of mild air and strong southwest winds, rain and another gusty front. That means Thursday might be a much nicer day than the rest of the week, if this timing holds, but could have a frosty start, highs near 8 C, then temperatures near 10 C on Friday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, variable temperatures but a colder trend. There are increasing signs of a much colder turn in January. I'm still feeling relatively confident of a severe spell of cold wintry weather in mid-January and some charts are showing early signs of this 4th-7th.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern states will see some moderate to heavy rain, trending to sleet over higher inland elevations, but highs should remain 10-12 C near the coast. This storm will interact more with cold air later tonight into Saturday in eastern Canada leading to a rain-snow mix there. Severe storms early today in the southeast states followed by partial clearing. Snow or freezing drizzle moving east from KS-OK towards MO-AR. Snow continuing over parts of the southern Rockies. A gradual change in the pattern here on the west coast as stronger systems move in, rain may finally become rather heavy later today. Inland western Canada continuing rather mild for mid-December, highs 2-4 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was perhaps the last in a long series of cool, dry days with increasing cloud and a high of about 5 C. Rain is on the doorstep tonight but has not yet started (could snow at first, as it is +1 C).

M.T. Cranium · 24-12-2011 7:33am

Saturday, 24 December, 2011
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Guidance has not changed much for the first 5-6 days of this forecast, so it follows on from the previous forecast. The Tuesday 27th (evening) Atlantic storm has now appeared on all models so I've dropped the comments on uncertain outcomes there. Some new comments on the longer range appear (for those who don't want to read the same forecast again) ... and in astronomy, today is the new moon at 1807 GMT. The Moon narrowly misses an eclipse by moving just north of the Sun, and factoring in the curved path of Sun and Moon in the sky, although invisible (and behind cloud anyway) the Moon would be located just to the right of the setting Sun around 4 p.m.

Happy Christmas to you and yours, I may post a forecast on Christmas morning, but if not, have a look on the 26th.

FORECASTS
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TODAY ... Variable cloud but overcast in north, outbreaks of rain may become heavy briefly in Donegal and nearby counties, 10-15 mms potential, but more like 2-5 mms further south, with either light rain or drizzle in a steady backing wind becoming SW 25-45 mph by afternoon (35-55 mph for a time around mid-day in Donegal) ... highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT (Christmas Eve) ... Mild and overcast with rain becoming light or drizzly, temperatures steady 8-10 C. Some fog over northern hills. Winds WSW 20-30 mph.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) ... Cloudy with light rain or drizzle northern counties, perhaps brighter intervals south, mild and breezy (SW 25-35 mph although 35-50 mph in exposed northwest coastal locations). Highs 10-13 C.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Monday 26th) ... Cloudy for most, some brighter intervals southeast, mild and breezy (SW 20-30 mph) ... lows near 8 C and highs 11-14 C. Rain intermittent at first becoming steady later, possibly heavy in Connacht. The evening will see lighter winds and a gradual shift southeast of a band of rain giving about 10-20 mms in some places.

TUESDAY (27th) ... Showers or periods of rain settling into south, possibly some clearing mid-day or afternoon in parts of north, a touch colder with lows 4-7 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds will likely increase sharply towards evening in the west (from a southerly direction) as an Atlantic low develops and tracks across Donegal towards Scotland during the late evening. Wind gusts to 55-60 mph may develop for a while, more like 30-45 mph away from the exposed northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY (28th) ... Following early morning rain, a windy, showery day will follow with wind direction veering from SW to NW, generally 20-35 mph after some higher gusts early morning in the north mainly, and temperatures steady around 7-9 C but turning a bit colder by late in the day ... showers could become somewhat sleety if not mixed in Connacht and Ulster. Some fairly rapid improvement may occur in the south as the gradient slackens.

THURSDAY (29th) ... Sunny intervals, a cold or even frosty start for inland counties, lows -2 to +3 C, then pleasant although not as mild as previous days, highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... In general, a southerly flow of rather mild air with a slightly continental mixed origin will develop and fronts may now be delayed or pushed back to the northwest. The evolution past about Sat 31st is rather uncertain because of pending developments in the upper atmosphere; in theory what is most likely to happen is some rapid ridge-building and possibly a shift back to the west of some features followed by a gradual turn to a more northerly flow in early January. This could involve a longer buildup and some minor Atlantic fronts before a colder phase sets in.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... In general, a quiet winter pattern prevails almost everywhere. Rain is moving onto the west coast with moderate SW winds, but there is no major storm. It is mild and dry across the Canadian west in a westerly flow; highs range from 7 C on the coast and in the Alberta chinook zone, to zero C in the central prairies. Further south into the western U.S., cloudy for most, snow lingering south of Denver into parts of the western plains states. Light snow is developing along a weak warm front in the western Great Lakes region, and cloud spreads across most of the northeast U.S. from a stalled front, with rather cold air over Quebec, but highs for the large cities of the Atlantic seaboard are around 5-7 C. Light rain will develop tonight and into Christmas Day with wet snow over inland higher terrain. The southeast is relatively mild and dry. Snow is spreading through Newfoundland from the Atlantic provinces of eastern Canada, 5-15 cms is likely.This is from a northern branch of the system expected in Ireland on Tuesday, which is developing south of Newfoundland later today.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy and reasonably mild with light rain at times, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2011 7:54am

Monday, 26 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Windy at first although more "breezy" by afternoon, very mild, intermittent rain across the north but only patchy drizzle further south where some hazy sunshine could break out ... highs 12-14 C ... winds SW 30-50 mph decreasing later to SSW 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Occasional rain across the north, totals (including today) of about 20-30 mms in places, but this band of rain will stall out across central counties before falling apart later tonight, so parts of the south could remain dry apart from drizzle or mist ... lows around 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud in most areas, further outbreaks of light rain mainly in the north and northwest, winds moderate southerly picking up to SSW 20-35 mph by evening. Highs 9-11 C. Heavier rain arriving late in the day west, becoming a line of squally showers with some thunder by evening as it crosses the country.

WEDNESDAY ... By early morning, becoming quite windy and turning colder as squally showers mix with hail in places. Winds will continue to veer more to the west and the day will turn cold and windy (WNW 20-40 mph) with scattered wintry showers and snow on some hills. Donegal and nearby exposed locations could see wind gusts to 60 mph as the storm deepens over northern Scotland. But its effects will be minimal across the south where the day may become sunny and (out of the wind) reasonably mild with highs varying from 4-8 C north to south.

THURSDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, a few showers, remaining a bit on the chilly side for most, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-10 C. Winds W 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, occasional light rain mostly in north, breezy (WSW 25-45 mph), a bit milder again, lows near 4 C and highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy, somewhat milder than average over the weekend of New Years Eve and Day, some outbreaks of light rain, highs 9-12 C. Further mild intervals in the following days until a much colder turn around the second weekend of the month (7-8).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A weak system will bring drizzle or light wet snow to parts of far eastern Canada, while high pressure crests over the eastern seaboard bringing a mild, sunny day for Boxing Day (with crowds of bargain hunters out there) and highs 12-14 C trending to 6-8 C lower Great Lakes in the same mild air mass. Rain is rapidly spreading north today across the plains states ahead of a complex frontal system that will bring heavy rain to the northeast on Tuesday 27th. Mild as far west as about Iowa to Kansas, but cold enough for light snow to the west of a front, then gradual clearing over the southern and central Rockies. Western Canada mild and sunny east of the Rockies, cloudy over most of B.C. with outbreaks of light rain and a rising freezing level, highs generally 7-10 C which ranges from near normal on the coast to much above normal in Manitoba, but all are sharing the same air mass. Colder air is bottled up north of 60N in the territories and Alaska and may start to filter southeast slowly this week although no big pattern changes are foreseen across populated southern Canada and most of the "lower 48" states. In other words, staying very mild in most areas, but relatively cold in the southern parts of the western interior.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Christmas Day was cloudy with a few brief sunny intervals by afternoon, mostly rain-free, and mild with a high near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-12-2011 7:54am

Tuesday, 27 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, could see a few sunny breaks in southeast, outbreaks of light rain mostly west and north, turning heavier by late afternoon, gradually increasing southerly winds 15-30 mph, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... During the evening to about midnight, a strong and blustery cold front will sweep across the country. Squall-line potential with this, watch for updates and discussion, 5-15 mms rain on average ... winds generally will continue to increase across the west and north as they veer more to SW then W 30-50 mph ... much stronger winds could brush some portions of the northwest coast and will certainly be felt out to sea and in western Scotland by morning, but could avoid hitting most parts of Ireland unless the squall line itself brings its own locally severe gusts. Temperatures tonight steady around 5-8 C most of the night before falling off to 2-4 C around dawn.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers over higher terrain, hail or rain showers lower down, but also some sunny intervals, in blustery WNW winds 30-50 mph. Highs 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Following a cold night with mixed wintry showers, the day will continue rather chilly but mild enough for most of the showers to return to rain, sleet on highest terrain, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C. Breezy to windy, WNW 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers or periods of light rain, milder, winds westerly backing to SW 20-40 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Winds SW 30-50 mph.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and somewhat colder (WNW 25-45 mph) with mixed wintry showers over north, hail or rain showers further south, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Another surge of milder air could bring temperatures back up to near 10 C on Monday 2nd with more rapid variations to follow in a generally westerly flow that mixes some mild sectors with colder air originating near Greenland. Eventually this pattern may collapse and allow the jet to shift south, so longer-range forecasts are not that carved in stone at this point with the models subject to big changes.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain will rapidly spread northeast and the major cities of the east coast will get a soaking in mild southerly winds, highs near 15 C and 30-50 mms rain likely. This storm will be mild enough to allow rain as far inland as the lower Great Lakes but snow will mix in during the later stages as the system pulls northeast into New Brunswick for Wednesday. Further west, there is only a limited outbreak of cold air squeezing in between this system and a strong low heading east through the Canadian prairies. This will renew the chinook that will cut off for a time today and allow some snow and sub-freezing temperatures briefly across the eastern prairies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a wet and breezy day with highs of about 8 C. The long dry spell seems to have finally been broken with more of a normal rain-forest sort of pattern back in place.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2011 8:09am

Wednesday, 28 December, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds mainly in coastal northwest where gusts to 80 mph in north Donegal and 65 mph elsewhere may continue to mid-day ... some squally and wintry showers could leave slippery or icy roads in higher elevations of the north later this morning.

TODAY ... Very windy and turning colder with squally showers, becoming wintry over higher terrain, widespread hail likely at lower elevations, winds WNW 35-55 mph for most, 45-70 mph more exposed coastal locations of northwest, and 50-80 mph around Inishowen in north Donegal. Sunny intervals becoming more frequent across the south and east. Temperatures steady or falling slightly in range of 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers or sleet at first, turning milder towards midnight as winds back slightly to WSW 30-50 mph, temperatures steady 2-4 C then rising to 4-7 C later.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of rain or hail, winds W 30-50 mph, temperatures steady 7-8 C, heavier rain by evening, winds SW 30-50 mph, temperatures may rise slightly then fall back again overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild, breezy or windy (WSW 30-50 mph) with lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain spreading across north and west at times, mild, winds SW 35-55 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

NEW YEARS EVE ... At this point it looks windy if not stormy, and showery, with strong westerly winds and showers with temperatures about 6 C. Although rather mild, it may feel colder.

SUNDAY (New Years Day) ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks by afternoon, morning showers rather sleety on higher terrain, isolated hail showers, cold ... lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY (2-5 Jan) ... Windy with some strong gusts at times, fast-moving warm sectors may push temperatures up to around 10 C briefly on at least two occasions but it will be closer to 5-7 C most of this period.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages in a developing northwest to northerly flow, temperatures somewhat below normal and precipitation showery and becoming mixed and wintry at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The rain and mild temperatures have moved beyond most of the northeast U.S. cities now, but Boston will see a few more hours of this before cloud and colder temperatures arrive, as they already have elsewhere. It will only turn a bit colder, with highs 4-6 C. The mild wet weather will spread into far eastern Canada with strong SSE winds and highs of 12-14 C. Further west, the central plains states are clearing and reasonably mild with no snow on the ground and highs of about 5 C. Light snow will fall in some parts of the northern plains and eastern prairies of Canada, where temperatures are falling off today to more seasonable levels near -4 C (still above normal though). Heavy rain is hitting the west coast non-stop with heavy wet snow in high elevations, and it's mild with extensive fog and low cloud, highs 8-10 C. The southwest states are dry and warm.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was foggy with continuous moderate or heavy rain, probably at least 50 mms, with a high near 8 C. Strong southerly winds and a low cloud ceiling obscuring even the tops of tall buildings.

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2011 8:08am

Thursday, 29 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Windy and feeling raw despite turning a bit milder with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy later today, 10-20 mms likely ... winds W 35-55 mph backing slightly to WSW, highs 9-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Further rain, strong westerly winds moderating later, lows around 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, mild, winds SW 20-40 mph ... highs 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild, breezy, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 or 12 C. Winds SW 20-40 mph.

NEW YEARS' EVE (Sat night) will become wet and progressively colder in strong westerly winds, lows near 3 C. Winds W 30-50 mph, higher gusts in west after midnight.

SUNDAY (1-1-2012) ... Windy and turning colder with squally showers that may become mixed over higher northern terrain, lows near 3 C and highs of about 6-8 C. Winds W 35-55 mph.

MONDAY ... Starting out quite chilly, turning milder, with periods of rain likely by evening as temperatures peak near 11-12 C possibly during the night.

OUTLOOK ... Models are struggling at the moment but I believe that the week will bring colder weather in stages, although there could be one brief mild sector around late Wednesday or early Thursday. Models will be more reliable when the stratospheric warming episode is confirmed, something that looks rather imminent now.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Much colder today in eastern New England and eastern Canada, but snow or sleet is moving into the lower Great Lakes ahead of milder air in the central plains states where highs could reach 15 C in places. The big cities of the northeast will feel just the outer fringes of the cold air mass and will tend to miss the snow as well although some light sleet or wet snow turning to drizzle could come and go by tonight.

Western Canada remains generally quite mild and the coast is seeing waves of moderate to heavy rain at times in a strong southwest flow. This moisture cuts off in Oregon and a warm, dry pattern remains in force over the southwest states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 28th was a very mild day here with a high of about 12 C between two batches of rain, the second of which is still going strong at this point. Tomorrow looks showery and mild again.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2011 8:01am

Friday, 30 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with periods of rain developing, 10-20 mms likely ... foggy at times especially near southwest coasts ... mild, highs 11-13 C ... winds moderate SW'ly at 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT ... Mainly cloudy, mild, rain ending for most, or showery ... foggy especially across the south ... lows near 7 C.

SATURDAY (31st) ... Variable cloud, showers, mild, winds SW 20-40 mph becoming 30-50 mph by evening. Highs 10-12 C.

NEW YEARS EVE (Saturday night) ... Windy and feeling cold as temperatures slowly fall to about 4-5 C, sleety showers developing, winds WSW 30-50 mph.

NEW YEARS DAY (Sunday 1st) ... Windy and colder, some sunny intervals but fast-moving wintry showers, becoming squally over western and northern regions, winds W 35-55 mph, temperatures steady 3-5 C, falling to near freezing by evening.

MONDAY (2nd) ... A very cold start with icy roads and some snow in places, wintry showers ... after a slight drop in the winds, a renewed blast from the west backing to southwest with rain developing as temperatures slowly rise all day, reaching 7 C by evening.

OVERNIGHT (2-3) into TUESDAY (3rd) ... advance alert for stormy conditions as a fast-moving low deepens, brings temperatures briefly up to 11-13 C, followed by westerly gales and slowly falling temperatures. Winds WSW to WNW 40-70 mph. Some showers or drizzle, hail showers developing later as temperatures drop to 4-6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy and rather cold on Wednesday then somewhat milder and less windy, although confidence in models low at present ... expect some volatile changes on the models around the 7th to 10th of January, perhaps starting to show up in the forecasts in a few days. A colder turn may follow.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern states milder today with a bit of drizzle or wet snow across higher parts, mainly cloudy but dry closer to the coastal cities, highs there about 7 C. Foggy with drizzle or freezing drizzle in parts of the lower Great Lakes and upper Midwest, but reasonably mild further south in a dry southwest flow, highs 7-10 C to about 15-20 C in Texas. Western Canada remaining rather mild and dry east of the Rockies for most, snow over higher mountains of B.C. and Washington state, rain near coast but clearing trend later.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Mostly cloudy on Thursday, mild, rain at times during afternoon and evening, highs near 9 C. Expecting rain to clear east, followed by scattered wintry showers later Friday as it cools down by several degrees in a west to northwest wind.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2011 8:25am

Saturday, 31 December, 2011
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Happy New Year -- all the best for 2012

ADVANCE ALERTS for developing wintry conditions especially in higher elevations (above 150m) later Sunday 1st into Monday 2nd ... and BE AWARE that very strong winds may develop late Monday night into Tuesday morning (3rd Jan).

FORECASTS ...

Today will be mostly cloudy and very mild, with some brighter intervals but also outbreaks of light rain or drizzle ... winds moderate SSW 20-35 mph and highs 11-14 C.

Tonight (perhaps the only night of the year that everyone wants to know the forecast) ... winds will be increasing and turning more southwesterly, and it will likely feel colder after midnight with more frequent showers and gusts to 45-50 mph ... temperatures will be slowly falling to about 7 C at midnight and 3-4 C by morning. Dress for very cold conditions if you plan to be out very late.

Sunday (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold, especially afternoon and evening hours, with showers becoming mixed and wintry at times, and snow possibly accumulating by evening on hills in west and north. Winds WSW veering slowly to WNW 35-55 mph adding considerable chill to daytime highs in the 5-7 C range, but temperatures closer to 2 C by late afternoon.

Monday will be very cold and windy, with a rapid moderating trend late in the day. Mixed wintry showers with accumulations of 3-5 cms of snow on hills (snow line at times near 150m then rising) ... winds WSW 30-50 mph ... morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon readings near 4-6 C before rising towards midnight to about 10 C.

Tuesday at this early point in time looks windy and perhaps stormy, but the details have not really been clarified. One scenario calls for very strong winds across the south with only a slight temperature rise in the north, while a second scenario calls for the strongest winds to hit the northwest coast early morning with gales widespread elsewhere. There are also hints of a weaker outcome that would produce only moderate winds. At this early stage, then, will be saying "windy and briefly milder, showers or periods of rain, potential for a return to mixed wintry showers in parts of north, temperatures rising to 10-12 C early morning, falling off to 6-8 C later with peak winds around 0300-0600h possibly gusting to 70 mph."

Stay tuned for updates and consult the threads on snow and wind potential for various other opinions and non-stop updates.

Outlook beyond Tuesday ... moderate winds and a trend to somewhat milder weather late in the week, showery at times, situation volatile and subject to the possibility of a colder turn around 8-15 January, perhaps in a northerly type pattern at first. There remains some chance that mild zonal patterns will continue through that week as well.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The Tuesday storm for Ireland, however it actually plays out, is right now plodding east through Ohio bringing wet snow and freezing rain to parts of the Great Lakes region north of its track, and mild, showery conditions to the northeast U.S. to the south. Highs may reach 12-15 C in the warm sector of this so-far modest low of about 995 mbs. Further south the pattern is warm and dry for most across the Gulf coast and Texas. A strong high dropping southeast into the Great Basin (Utah-Nevada) will bring colder weather to the interior western states and across most of British Columbia the weather will be partly cloudy with mountain snow showers, and rather cold with highs near 5 C. Further east, the Canadian prairies are seeing strong northwest winds and a colder pattern developing in the wake of a low near western Lake Superior that is creating a snowstorm in central Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a partly cloudy day with a brief blast of strong westerly winds, mountain showers turning to sleet and snow at higher elevations, but just a brief sprinkle of rain here at 4 p.m., trace amounts ... highs near 7 C ... clear intervals overnight, cold and then sunny intervals, chilly on Saturday. Our New Years Eve will feature frosty clear conditions with a rapid increase in cloud Sunday morning.

Because of the alerts, I will definitely continue the daily updates through the New Years Eve period, and I will even try to be quite sober when doing so, but maybe it would help if I wasn't.

darkman2 · 01-01-2012 1:29am

Happy New Year MT from all of us!

Have a good un.:D

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2012 8:26am

Sunday, 1 January, 2012 :eek:
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ALERT for developing wintry conditions late afternoon and evening, lasting into Monday mid-day, for most regions but more pronounced in higher elevations of the west and north. ADVANCE ALERT for strong and possibly damaging winds late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

TODAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, with scattered showers of rain and hail at first, some with thunder, then later, mixed wintry showers with snow becoming dominant above 200 metres in west and north this evening. Temperatures will remain steady 5-7 C (8-10 C south coast) then may fall several degrees to reach 2-4 C this evening, in strong SW winds veering slightly to WSW 35-55 mph at times, although 20-40 mph much of the day in the east and sheltered inland locations.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, snow line dropping closer to sea level at times, accumulations of 3-7 cms possible mainly on hills in Connacht and west Ulster, lows -2 to +2 C. Winds will remain strong, W 35-55 mph in more exposed locations, otherwise 20-40 mph.

MONDAY (2nd) ... Windy and cold to start the day with further mixed or wintry showers, winds backing from westerly to southerly and temperatures slowly rising, periods of sleet turning to rain by late afternoon and evening, potential for 10-20 mms rain, winds reaching SSW 40-60 mph before midnight and temperatures about 7-9 C by evening.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Stormy conditions likely with very strong SW winds veering rapidly to W'ly, peaking at 50-80 mph with the potential for some damaging gusts around 0300-0800h, temperatures peaking 10-12 C then falling back sharply to 4-6 C in west, squally showers with hail and thunder. There is now growing consensus on the potential for country-wide severe wind gusts which will vary more by exposure to the southwest to west than by region. This may include Dublin in some of the stronger winds, watch for updated forecasts and discussions on our threads, but would advise a good indicator might be wind speeds and damage in past similar storms (12-26-98 and 01-06-91 have been mentioned). There is still some chance that this event will remain marginal for wind damage but at the same time there is some potential for it to be a major event.

TUESDAY ... Stormy conditions abating to gales then moderate WNW winds late afternoon, temperatures steady 4-6 C, some mixed or wintry showers in higher terrain but rain or hail showers dominating lower down, although some long dry intervals in lee of hills. Ulster will remain in the strong or storm force winds longest, as well as north Leinster.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... This period is looking relatively mild in continuing strong westerly winds, and some intervals of rain more concentrated in the northwest at times, highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... The European model is now picking up a signal we have been searching for, namely some rapid changes of the circulation to suppress the Atlantic storm track and create anticyclonic blocking ... this begins to show up in the period 6-8 January and details may not be all that accurate (while other models continue with zonal flow) but a plausible sequence might be a cold rain or sleet event dropping south followed by colder north to northeast winds. This is speculative and subject to change. Temperatures could fall in stages but may eventually become significantly colder than normal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The Monday night (Tuesday morning) storm for Ireland is rapidly intensifying off the Nova Scotia coast overnight and will bring northeast gales and rain to much of eastern Canada, with snow or sleet further north into Labrador and eastern Quebec. A second storm is also developing over the western Great Lakes. Regions between the lows will have a mild New Years Day with some sunshine and highs 10-15 C, and this will include all the larger cities of the northeast U.S. as well as Toronto and Montreal. But somewhat further west, rain will develop and quickly turn to snow, then blowing snow in strong northwest winds over Lakes Michigan and Superior by afternoon. This lake effect snow will spread further east tonight and Monday.

Across western Canada, it's a colder but mainly dry pattern with a few flurries and temperatures close to normal values, -7 to -10 C, in strong NW winds, trending to calm and partly cloudy over the Rockies and overcast with light rain on the west coast. A strong high is swelling up over Utah and Colorado bringing clear, cold weather to the Great Basin (highs -4 to -10 C) but promoting a mild southeast flow into Arizona and California. Strong northerly winds will develop across most of the plains states and barrel south through Oklahoma and later Texas to drop temperatures there from 10-15 C or higher, to sub-freezing by tonight, but the front is largely dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a cloudy day and cool with a high near 5 C, but you could see the sun's position behind the overcast except when a few sleety sea-effect showers rolled in about 3 p.m. for a few minutes, dropping a mini-blizzard of sleet that vanished almost as soon as it appeared. Currently overcast with calm winds and about 2 C. It is still 2011 as I write this, and will be until 0800 GMT. Happy new year and thanks for the greeting card (previous post if you missed it).

Check the discussions of snow and strong winds although I would also say check the reliability of said utterances given the date on the calendar and the likely shock value of seeing the ECM while returning to sobriety. (perhaps it will also, perhaps not...)

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2012 9:07pm

UPDATED ALERT _ Sunday, 1 Jan 2012 _ 8:00 p.m.
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The ALERT for strong winds is still subject to some uncertainty as we are dealing with a very fast-moving and (according to some models) rapidly developing system that will apparently blast through Donegal Bay around midnight to 0300h of Monday night, or little more than 24 hours from now.

At this point, I feel that the greatest risk of strong or damaging wind gusts covers all regions that are exposed to a southwest wind direction, regardless of what part of Ireland, as the gradient wind looks about equal for all regions. The uncertainty also extends to wind speed which could produce maximum gusts as weak as 50 knots or as strong as 80 knots depending on how this unfolds.

At this point, I think it best to advise that a brief period of damaging winds could develop shortly after midnight (early Tuesday) and that the most likely peak wind speeds will be 40-45 knots sustained and 65-70 knots in gusts, but with a leeway of 10-15 knots on either side. I hope to have more clarity on this in the morning forecast. The storm is currently passing the southeast portions of Newfoundland and has a central pressure of about 985 mbs, but may be as low as 950 mbs when it reaches eastern Scotland on Tuesday.

Would advise that Galway and north Clare may be in the path of some of the strongest winds on the track expected at present time, and that some parts of Dublin could be affected by very strong gusts where not sheltered to the southwest by higher terrain.

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2012 4:43am

Monday, 2 January, 2012
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ALERT upgraded for strong and potentially damaging winds tonight, arriving around or shortly after midnight and lasting several hours in most regions, possibly most of the day in Ulster. Forecasts will provide more details, but be aware that southwest gale to storm force winds appear very likely now and could increase to 65 mph sustained with gusts to 100 mph (this equates to 110 km/hr gusting as high as 160 km/hr, or 55-60 knots gusting to 85-90 knots). These speeds will be most likely in exposed coastal and upland locations in the west, south and later on north coasts as well as scattered higher terrain. For the Dublin region, there is a risk of winds of about 55 mph gusting to 85 mph (about 90 km/hr gusting to 135 kn/hr) late tonight. Most of the west coast, especially but not limited to Galway Bay region including parts of north Clare may be at risk of damaging gusts to near 150 km/hr and this would be strong enough to blow down large trees and do moderate structural damage, as well as moving any kind of poorly secured objects ... construction sites in all regions should be secured well in advance. Hurricane force winds are likely in most marine areas to force 12 and we strongly advise against road travel overnight.

FORECASTS --
________________

Today will remain cold and windy to mid-afternoon before a rapid moderation begins. There will be further mixed wintry showers (some with hail and thunder) and snow accumulations on northern and western hills above 150m, but the snow line should rise steadily by afternoon. Temperatures will be 4-7 C by afternoon and 8-11 C by midnight. Winds will stay quite blustery all day from the west backing to southwest at 35-55 mph but will increase to 55-80 mph by evening with severe gusts by midnight in the southwest coastal regions spreading rapidly around all coasts. Heavy rain will accompany the strong winds at first, with 10-20 mms likely, and some thunder possible. Marine zones west and later south of Ireland will begin to experience storm force and then hurricane force winds at times by late afternoon and evening.

Tonight will become stormy and there may be damaging winds from a south to southwest direction veering rapidly to westerly, reaching speeds of at least 50 mph gusting to 80 mph, and possibly 65 mph gusting to 100 mph in more exposed locations. See ALERT for further details. These winds will be capable of bringing down trees and inflicting structural damage even involving roof removal but certainly more minor damage would be widespread. Road travel may become very dangerous and we advise against it except in sheltered short-distance trips. The very strong winds will tend to peak around 0300h west and 0500h east but may continue several hours in the south and much of the day in the north. Squally showers will continue, temperatures will peak briefly around 10-12 C before falling back rapidly towards dawn, as winds veer to a W then NW direction.

Fortunately, we are between new and full moons and storm surge potential is reduced somewhat by the lower stage of astronomical tides, but a minor storm surge could develop in some west-facing bays and harbours. Battering waves are likely, but the extremely rapid forward speed of the storm will likely mean that very large swells and waves may arrive after the strongest winds have come and gone. Exercise extreme caution if viewing these coastal battering waves later Tuesday, some may be 15-25 metres high.

Tuesday following the worst of the windstorm, it will remain quite windy (WNW 40-60 mph) most of the day, but parts of Ulster will remain in much stronger storm force winds of 55-90 mph. Temperatures will become steady in the 3-6 C range (milder south and east coasts) with mixed wintry showers returning to higher parts of the north, although hail and rain dominant at lower elevations elsewhere. Near blizzard conditions may develop in higher passes of Ulster.

Wednesday will continue rather windy and raw with strong west to northwest winds, sleety showers or periods of rain mixing with wet snow over some higher terrain in north, lows near 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C. Winds W-NW 30-50 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht and west Ulster.

Thursday will probably turn a bit milder again with westerly winds 20-40 mph, periods of rain heavier in the north, and lows 3-5 C, highs 8-11 C.

Friday to Sunday is considered uncertain with model guidance tending to diverge into two camps, one being a mild, unsettled westerly pattern, but another hinting at rapid frontal passages followed by strong northerly outbreaks. While deep cold or snow seem unlikely in Ireland, they could begin to develop in eastern parts of the U.K. as the Atlantic high could shift back to the west setting up a sharp thermal gradient near Ireland.

Further outlook -- Many signs of a much colder period to follow, but details hard to assess given the wide range of model guidance. My research theory would suggest strong northwest winds and mixed wintry showers as a big part of the picture, but there appears to be some chance of a blocking high ridge trying to push in from the northeast. That could lead to highly volatile polar low type circulations developing in about ten days or so.

North American forecasts -- Briefly due to the storm forecast, most of the northeast U.S. will remain mild to late afternoon then see rain turning to snow, after highs near 10 C. Great Lakes and upper Midwest cold and windy, snow squalls in west to northwest gale force winds, temperatures below -3 C in most areas. Further west, cold and dry with northerly winds, highs -3 to 0 C trending to 10-13 C Gulf coast. West coast turning milder in cloudy, drizzly southerly flow.

MTC's Local Weather ... Mostly cloudy, glimpses of sun, spits of rain but nothing measurable, milder than past few days by afternoon, 8 C.

Updates may follow on the storm potential, and there is an active discussion thread on the forum for this developing potentially major windstorm.

Take this seriously, the forward speed and rapid pressure drop mark this as a potentially dangerous windstorm.

:eek:

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2012 9:28pm

UPDATE _ Monday 2 January 2012 _ 8:30 p.m.
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No changes to ALERTS (see previous post) ... storm is developing as expected and very sharp pressure falls at M6 buoy together with backing winds indicate potential power of this storm ... will post updates on details as they develop ... expect winds to increase rapidly 2300-0100h and peak on west coast around 0300-0500h while peaks on south coast may come in the rapid increase phase as energy races forward, but for east coast would expect two peaks, one around 0400h (SSW) and one around 0800h to mid-day as strong westerlies arrive.

All other forecasts can be found in the previous post. I hope the damage is limited and that you come through unscathed. However, I do feel there is potential for moderate if not severe damage in some exposed areas. In this calm before the storm, take a minute to assess location of vehicles or other valuable property with relation to any trees or nearby structures that could impact on said vehicles or property. There might be a safer parking spot nearby. Strongest wind gusts will probably be almost due westerly but consider the range SW to WNW. (Objects will fall or fly to NE through ESE).

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2012 12:48am

UPDATE _ Monday, 2 January, 2012 _ 11:45 pm
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ALERT is maintained and some of the higher wind speed advisories may verify as the centre is currently rapidly deepening around 54N 14W (est 970 mbs). Coastal and exposed locations in west, south but especially Galway Bay, Mayo and Donegal, could soon experience much stronger winds veering to SW and W and gusting to 140 km/hr (about 90 mph) or thereabouts. I am estimating that the strongest winds will hit around 0200-0300h. For Dublin and most of Leinster, the increase will be more gradual and may not peak until sunrise or later. All parts of Ulster can expect very strong winds at some point overnight lasting 6-12 hours when they arrive.

Continuing to stress the potential for wind damage to trees, facilities and some structures in exposed locations. Road travel in west and north strongly discouraged (after 0100h).

Consult earlier forecast and alerts for more details.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2012 8:25am

Tuesday, 3 January, 2012
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ALERT continues for very strong winds although most regions will see gradual moderation -- however, parts of eastern Ulster will now see increasing W-NW gales and storm force winds, while north and west Ulster will peak at hurricane force gusts for an hour or two longer before a slow decline to about severe gale force by mid-day. Further south, many places have already had the worst of the winds from this system but there could be pulses of strong winds against a gradual downward trend. Also, turning much colder with mixed wintry showers returning, and some blowing snow in higher northern districts at times this afternoon.

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals for most, passing squally showers, and slowly abating gale force winds ... but stormy across the north with hail and sleet showers, turning to snow inland this afternoon ... winds this morning have peaked at about 60-100 mph in parts of Ulster and will gradually moderate to 40-70 mph through the day. Further south, peak winds of 50-80 mph should moderate gradually to 30-50 mph from WNW. Temperatures will drop slowly this morning, become stable around 4-6 C mid-day and then fall again this evening (but 2-4 C inland north by afternoon).

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold with passing showers of sleet, hail or snow, winds WNW 30-50 mph, some higher gusts in northwest. Lows 1-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and rather cold with passing sleet, hail or snow showers, highs 4-8 C. Winds NW 30-50 mph.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Most likely it will turn a bit milder with periods of rain, heavier in north, foggy at times, highs around 8 C Thursday and 10 C on Friday, but there could be colder incursions in Ulster as Great Britain will be in more of a cold northwest flow. This makes the forecast somewhat uncertain despite it being only 2-3 days out.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The same general comments apply here, a mild westerly flow is suggested by model consensus, contrasting with a cold northwest to northerly flow not very far to the east. So once again, this forecast period is somewhat uncertain and changes could appear to this outlook. Beyond the weekend, one of two things seems likely to happen, either the high will swell up and begin to create pockets of colder stagnant air under an inversion, with fog and low cloud in places, sunshine elsewhere, or possibly all features will shift west and allow a cold northerly to develop. I would not be too surprised if that's the outcome and it seems almost certain for eastern parts of the U.K. -- so things will be unstable in the forecast models for several days, in addition to the prospect of a stratospheric warming episode that seems more likely now.

Continue to monitor the ongoing windstorm discussion thread for updates, especially as yours truly will be heading off for a long sleep after watching this storm in detail for the better part of 15 hours now. Thanks to all who contributed observations and thoughts in the relevant threads -- they are all helpful in our quest to provide a timely warning of this sort of weather event. And I hope you came through with minimal damage.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very cold for most regions east and central, with the long-duration mild spell temporarily expelled from the continent and out to sea. Some warmth lingers in south Florida, but otherwise, most of the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada are several degrees below normal today with lake effect snow, otherwise mostly clear with strong NW winds in places. Highs are generally around -5 C northeast U.S. to 10 C southeast states. Further west, milder in the warm sector of a low traversing the central Canadian prairies, in fact, near record warmth developing in places (that would be 5-10 C in the region near the border).

Sunny and warm in the southwest U.S., and cloudy with light rain in coastal regions further north.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, dry most of the day but light to moderate rain showers this evening, mild, 8-10 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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