Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 28-08-2011 06:33AM

Sunday, 28 August, 2011
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TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, becoming rather windy again near the west and north coasts especially. Highs 14-16 C. Rainfalls generally 2-4 mms.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, chilly, lows 3-6 C with risk of ground frost in the midlands.

MONDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, light northwest breezes, highs around 15 C north and 17 C south.

TUESDAY ... After another very chilly morning with isolated ground frost, lows 2-6 C, sunny by day with highs around 16-17 C. Light winds. A spell of cloud and light showers may affect eastern Ulster mid-day.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny with increasing high cloud after a third very cool morning (2-6 C) with highs reaching 17 C except for somewhat cooler sea breezes in the south and east. Rain may arrive in the far west by evening.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... Remnants of Irene tracking to the northwest and north of Donegal may bring frequent showers and stronger winds again, from the south at first then veering more westerly. Temperatures about 17 C daytime but milder at night than earlier in the week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hurricane Irene, now a weakened cat-1 storm, is accelerating up the east coast and should be past Ocean City MD soon, then Atlantic City NJ, reaching New York City by early afternoon. Although the eye of the storm seems likely to move inland just a bit east of the city, most of the east coast will see heavy rainfalls and moderately strong NE winds with some storm surge in the early stages, then the opposite trend, very low tides following the passage. Long Island and New England seem likely to take a more direct hit of winds and storm surges, but the event may only play out as a moderate rather than major impact storm.

Further west, many regions were clear and seasonably warm in central and western North America on Saturday and will remain that way today.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and 24 C on Saturday, felt pleasant after the 40's in the desert.

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2011 05:57AM

Monday, 29 August, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy across most regions with a few light sprinkles of rain giving trace or 1 mm amounts to parts of Ulster and Connacht. Brighter to start in the south, and the cloud may break up gradually when it arrives there later, so a few hours of bright sunshine likely in Munster and parts of Leinster. Light northwest winds occasionally reaching 10-15 mph. Highs near 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloud thinning out again, very chilly in some places with the risk of ground frost in midlands, lows generally 3-7 C. Light winds.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, more cloud in Ulster than most other regions, cool but with very light winds, highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Another chilly start with lows 2-7 C, then sunshine fading behind increasing cloud, a slight southeast wind developing, sea breezes as a result on south coast especially ... highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers, a bit warmer and more humid, southerly winds increasing, highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, breezy, highs near 17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Blustery west winds, showers, some improvement on Sunday but generally not all that warm with highs 15-17 C.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Irene brought heavy rains to most of the inland northeast and some storm surge or wind damage near the Long Island and New England coastlines on Sunday. The downgraded storm is now dying out over eastern Canada and will head for Iceland as a regular low pressure system all through this coming week. As per the last few days, near normal to very warm dry weather across most central and western states and parts of western Canada with a weak front advancing inland in B.C. tonight.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... another day of sunshine and 23 C for the high on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 30-08-2011 07:47AM

Tuesday, 30 August, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks here or there, more likely near the south coast ... just a few drizzly showers for parts of Ulster and spots of rain elsewhere, little if any measurable amounts ... highs 14 to 16 C with the higher readings in the south and west.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy until well after midnight, possibly a bit of clearing inland south leading to colder lows around 5 C there, but with the cloud it may stay closer to 9-11 C elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, expect a bit more sun than previous days but some places could remain overcast and see a spot of drizzle without much if any accumulation. Highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... With somewhat more chance of clearing overnight, Thursday morning's lows could be closer to the frost point in place, lows will probably average about 4-7 C, then partly cloudy with thicker cloud edging into the southwest and later northwest, followed by some drizzle, highs 15-18 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, becoming a bit more breezy after almost a calm spell midweek, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers becoming heavy at times with gusty SW winds developing, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, also heavy at times. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather unsettled.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Not much going on aside from some heavy storms in the mountain west, most places in the east cleaning up from Irene's flooding rains or dealing with ongoing flooding in Vermont and New Jersey in particular (although the weather today was pleasant there which helped a bit) ... cloudy across western Canada with showers a bit further north than my location. Katia threatens for next week on the southeast coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, cooler than previous days on Monday, high around 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-08-2011 06:14AM

Wednesday, 31 August, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloud will continue to thin out and there should be some brighter intervals in the south; also, despite a somewhat chilly start in some places, it should warm up reasonably fast and reach about 17 or 18 C except in a few parts of the far north and where any sea breezes develop, even there, 15-16 seems likely. Rather light east winds in general, just the outside chance of a brief drizzly shower in one or two places.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some fog or mist patches, calm, lows 6-10 C but possibly a bit colder in some inland southern valleys.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, mild to warm, more humid, light southeast winds, chance of some rain or drizzle on outer west to northwest coasts, not making much progress east or south. Highs generally 17-19 C, could hit 20 C in southeast.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers edging somewhat further east at times, giving 2-5 mms in parts of west and north, may stay dry in east and south where somewhat warmer ... lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with rain developing, possible embedded thundershowers at times, rainfall potential 10-20 mms, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Although the overnight hours could become dry with fog patches following, more rain seems likely especially by afternoon and evening, and this rain could become heavy (15-25 mms potential). Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled at times, near normal temperatures. Just as a rough first estimate, remnants of Katia may show up in the region after about ten days to two weeks.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Despite some ongoing severe flooding in the northeast, the actual weather has become sunny and near normal in temperatures after Irene's departure into the Labrador Sea. A few showers or thunderstorms are breaking out in the northern plains and central prairies, and it has cleared again near the west coast. Temperatures are generally not far from late August normals. Katia has formed in the Cape Verde region and should be a full-blown hurricane when it passes near or north of the Virgin Islands late this weekend. The eventual track looks like being offshore between Bermuda and Cape Cod then past Newfoundland towards Iceland. Models show it meandering around the eastern Atlantic in about two weeks.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy on Tuesday morning, sunny by afternoon, high about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2011 06:18AM

Thursday, 1st of September, 2011
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TODAY ... Variable cloud although some hazy sunshine in south, mild to warm, becoming more humid, light southeast winds, chance of some rain or drizzle on outer west to northwest coasts, not making much progress east or south. Highs generally 17-19 C, could hit 20 C in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in west and north, 2-4 mms potential, lows near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers edging somewhat further east at times, giving 2-5 mms in parts of west and north, may stay dry in east and south where somewhat warmer ... lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, 5-10 mms potential, mild, some fog, lows near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with rain at times in the morning, possible embedded thundershowers at times, rainfall potential 5-10 mms, highs near 17 C. A clearing trend is likely mid-day in the west and through the afternoon further east.

SUNDAY ... Although the overnight hours could become dry with fog patches following, more rain seems likely especially by afternoon and evening, and this rain could eventually become heavy (15-25 mms potential). There is some chance, however, that the southeast will remain dry until well into the afternoon, or at least that heavier rain won't begin until then. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Frequent showers, cool, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy at times, unsettled most of next week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A rather quiet pattern in general as Katia gains hurricane intensity well east of the Leeward Islands, still expected to curve north between Bermuda and Cape Cod next week. Showers and some heavy downpours have developed overnight in parts of west-central Canada ahead of a cold front in Saskatchewan. Many parts of the U.S. had near normal temperatures and dry weather with floodwaters gradually receding in parts of the northeast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy on Wednesday morning, sunny by afternoon, highs about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2011 07:18AM

Friday, 2 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or showers drifting further northeast and gradually dispersing with fog and mist by evening. Rather warm and humid with highs reaching 17-19 C except 15-17 C far north and near outer south and west coasts. Rainfalls generally 1-3 mms. Heavier rain developing in the west this evening.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of rain becoming rather heavy with 10-15 mms by dawn in many places, rain ending with fog or mist in far west, lows only 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain may be rather heavy at times in the southeast, with possible thundery bursts, while somewhat brighter conditions develop further west and across most of the north, these eventually pushing into the east and southeast by mid-afternoon ending the rain there (5-15 mms accumulation by then). Highs 16-18 C, with warmer readings more likely in the southwest. Fog becoming widespread by sunset.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Clear overhead but ground fog or mist becoming thicker and leading to rain by dawn on the west coast. Light winds for most, lows may fall to about 8 C before temperatures rise again with the cloud and rain.

SUNDAY ... Rain or showers spreading gradually east to cover most of the country by afternoon. Rain becoming rather heavy in the evening, potential for about 15-25 mms by midnight. Highs 15-17 C. Becoming breezy or windy by later in the day especially near the west coast.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, brief intervals of brighter skies but with some squally showers as winds rise to near gale force in many places, from a southwest and later westerly direction. Gusts to 55 mph by late afternoon or evening near west coast, 40 mph elsewhere. Lows near 9 C and highs near 15 or 16 C. Rainfall potential 10-20 mms.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Blustery with heavy or squally showers at times, westerly winds gusting to 55 mph, very autumnal feel ... lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfall potential about 10 mms a day.

OUTLOOK ... Showery but somewhat less windy after mid-week, possibly a little warmer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Most of the active weather is offshore -- land areas are generally quiet with near normal temperatures, but a tropical storm (that should be named Lee) appears to be forming in the central Gulf of Mexico. This will move into southeast Texas and bring heavy rain to the entire Gulf coast later this week. Meanwhile, Katia is having some trouble maintaining hurricane intensity but is expected to recover later today as she moves towards the waters north of the Virgin Islands and towards Bermuda (passing west of there by middle of next week).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... It was mostly cloudy with a few brief sunny intervals and reasonably warm at 20 C on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-09-2011 06:39AM

Saturday, 3 September, 2011
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Overview -- an unusually busy forecast ahead

Bursts of heavy rain, possibly thundery, will return to the southeast this morning, but I think that most of this will be a little south and east of the Electric Picnic site -- although they may see some of the rain, Wexford and nearby parts of Carlow and Kilkenny are more likely to see this band of rain at full force. Sunday's mid-day to evening rain event is likely to be more widespread and will affect all regions as it moves rather quickly across Ireland. More waves of moisture with stronger winds added in can be expected about once every 24 hours next week :eek: and if that's not enough, the current GFS model brings Hurricane Katia tracking very close to Donegal towards western Scotland around a week from Monday night ! This of course is too early for a definitive forecast, but obviously something to watch very closely as it follows a trend established in earlier model runs. This would coincide with the full moon, so any active weather around the 12th could bring unusually high tides to west or south facing coasts.

Forecast details

TODAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain may be rather heavy at times in the southeast, with possible thundery bursts, especially in Wexford and Carlow, Kilkenny, nearby parts of other counties, while somewhat brighter conditions develop further west and across most of the north, although not without a few scattered showers. The brighter conditions should eventually push into the east and southeast by mid-afternoon ending the rain there (but 5-15 mms accumulation by then, compared to trace to 2 mms most other regions).

Highs 16-18 C, with warmer readings more likely in the southwest. Fog becoming widespread by sunset.

TONIGHT ... Clear overhead but ground fog or mist becoming thicker and leading to rain by dawn on the west coast. Light winds for most, lows may fall to about 8 C before temperatures rise again with the cloud and rain.

SUNDAY ... Rain or showers spreading gradually east to cover most of the country by afternoon. Rain becoming rather heavy in the afternoon west, evening east, with thunder at times, and potential for about 15-25 mms by midnight. Highs 15-17 C. Becoming breezy or windy by later in the day especially near the west coast as southerly gales veer more to southwest.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, brief intervals of brighter skies but with some squally showers as winds rise to near gale force in many places, from a southwesterly direction. Gusts to 55 mph by late afternoon or evening near west coast, 40 mph elsewhere. Morning lows near 9 C and afternoon highs near 15 or 16 C, although it could rise to about 18 C in the evening in the south as a warm sector develops and moves rapidly across the southern counties. This is when thunder may be most likely especially inland south. Rainfall potential for the day 10-20 mms.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Blustery with heavy or squally showers at times, westerly winds gusting to 55 mph, very autumnal feel ... lows near 8 C and highs near 15 or 16 C. Rainfall potential about 10 mms a day.

OUTLOOK ... Showery but somewhat less windy after mid-week, possibly a little warmer, then another very active system for Friday with another burst of warmer, humid air creating a rapid rise in humidity and temperatures up to about 19 C with heavy rainfall potential. Showery and windy on the weekend, then as indicated in the overview, the GFS model indicates that Katia's strong circulation (post-tropical at that point, no doubt) could sweep across the northern two-thirds of Ireland bringing southwest to west gales -- something to watch carefully next week (uncertainty is high even for the first five days of Katia's track). Further wind and rain would follow that, so this may turn into a very wet month at the rate things are going.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Warm, dry Pacific high is spreading its influence from west coast towards central plains, with a front bringing rain to the Great Lakes later today. Warm and humid to the south of that front, but not much active weather except for heavy rain in Louisiana spreading northeast from T.S. Lee in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katia has been moving steadily west and seems likely to skim north of Puerto Rico towards the Bermuda-Cape Hatteras region of the Atlantic by mid-week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine, high near 21 C on Friday.

darkman2 · 03-09-2011 11:53PM

There she is just to the Northwest on the latest forecast.:) Long way out but something to keep an eye on!

M.T. Cranium · 04-09-2011 06:35AM

Sunday, 4 September, 2011
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Katia continues to show up in the vicinity around a week from Monday-Tuesday ... the trend has been towards a track further north which would bring very warm air across Ireland as well as rather strong SW to W winds -- because this concept of very warm air looks a bit dodgy in the pattern that has persisted since mid-August, I don't think that a weaker warming trend and therefore stronger winds should be discounted. Some hurricanes that fail to gain latitude south of Newfoundland eventually start to dig into the flow and try to return to the subtropics, so that's a trend to watch for here also.

TODAY ... It may start out reasonably bright and dry in Leinster and Ulster, but this won't last very long as rain quickly spreads northeast from Munster and Connacht. Eastern Ulster could remain dry to about 2-3 p.m., but expect the rain in Dublin by about 1130h so closer to 0930h at the EP site. Rainfalls of 8-15 mms will be widespread and some thundery bursts possible. Winds will pick up to moderate southerly, and highs will be held down to 15-16 C. Some brighter intervals with gusty SW winds may develop late afternoon and evening in the southwest.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, gusty SW winds, mild, lows near 12C. Rainfalls 5-10 mms.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, becoming rather windy from the south-southwest, some thunder possible especially by evening. Potential for 10-20 mms of rain. Highs near 18 C, quite humid especially in west Munster.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Gale force winds and heavy, squally showers, some thunder likely, winds veering SW then W 35-55 mph, a further 10 mms of rain and lows only 12-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Very breezy or windy (WSW 35-55 mph) with occasional squally showers, some thunder, also some brighter intervals, highs 14-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers turning more to longer periods of rain later, mild and humid, possibly quite stormy by evening, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy, showers, turning cooler in stages, highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, becoming overcast with rain later, highs near 17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Another squally frontal passage likely Friday night, gradual clearing through Saturday, rather chilly by Sunday ... then a possible visit from Katia early in the following week (at least a glancing blow suggested by current model runs).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny and very warm in the west, and as this warm dry wedge shifts east, a cool northerly flow is pressing into central regions behind a complex front that has become wrapped around slow-moving Tropical Storm Lee moving inland today near New Orleans. The heaviest rain from this has spread further east and north towards Mobile Bay and southern Mississippi. Katia is on course to rush west of Bermuda Wednesday then past Cape Cod around Friday of next week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Settling into a long warm or even hot, dry spell -- Saturday was sunny and about 25 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-09-2011 06:38AM

Monday, 5 September, 2011
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There is a lot of "spread" in the global models after about 3-4 days and the actual outcome for Hurricane Katia is really very uncertain ... all we can say is that there's a good chance that the extratropical low will be somewhere between Ireland and Iceland by about Sunday to Tuesday in a week's time.

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun with more frequent showers in the west at first, but these spreading east, in advance of a period of steady rain with possible embedded thundershowers. Winds becoming rather strong from the southwest at 30-50 mph. Rainfalls 8-15 mms. Highs 17-19 C. Feeling very warm and humid by this evening.

TONIGHT ... Warm, humid, intervals of heavy rain, possible thunder and hail, and gusty SW winds 35-55 mph veering more westerly towards morning, 10-20 mms rain, lows 12-14 C. Quite a stormy night especially in Connacht and west Munster.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning slightly cooler on strong westerly winds, still some squally showers around but these may become less frequent by afternoon and evening, highs 16-18 C, winds west 35-55 mph moderating slightly by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few isolated showers, winds more moderate and backing again to southwest later, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mainly in the southeast, quite warm with a steady SW wind, possible outbreaks of rain in west and north mainly, 5-15 mms potential there ... lows near 10 C and highs 18-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cooler ... lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... A fairly vigorous low seems likely to form in mid-ocean ahead of Katia, and this will probably dominate the weekend weather with an interval of strong winds and showers, timing somewhat uncertain ... then Katia's extratropical remnant low could follow directly with the chance of some very strong winds if that happens, or it may stall near Iceland and circle around to allow a warmer spell for a day or two until its final remnants circle back around to pass Ireland mid-week. Some clarity on this should begin to emerge later this week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny and very warm to hot across the west on Sunday, cloudy and rather cool in the Great Lakes and nearby parts of the northeast U.S., widespread showers and thunderstorms feeding northeast from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee now inland near Alabama.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm on Sunday, 27 C for the high.

M.T. Cranium · 06-09-2011 07:02AM

Tuesday, 6 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Variable cloud with some sunny intervals but also the continuing risk of heavy showers, some with hail and thunder. There is a slight tornadic risk for northern and central counties well inland. Widespread strong wind gusts are expected from WSW at 35-55 mph. Further rainfalls generally only 1-3 mms but could be locally heavier. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers or periods of rain, 5-10 mms potential, mild, continuing rather breezy (W 20-40 mph) with lows 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, a few more showers, winds backing gradually to SW 20-40 mph, highs 15-17 C. Heavier rain likely by evening especially in north.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers continuing at times in the north, possibly a brighter interval for the south and quite mild or warm, morning lows around 11 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Some sunny breaks, rain more likely in west and north, very mild or warm in moderate southerly winds. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C away from somewhat cooler coastal fringes.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers turning to periods of rain, winds gusty and southerly, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers, a bit cooler in a west to northwest breeze, possibly becoming stormy later, highs near 15 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... A significant risk of stormy weather especially in the north and west, depending on track and intensity of Katia. The models have actually reversed roles in their latest run (00z Tuesday) -- the GFS brings the storm closer than before, although only Donegal would appear to be in line for strong winds on its depiction. Meanwhile, the European model now wants to spin the storm around in the central Atlantic with a developing warm ridge over Ireland and the U.K. -- the GEM and UKMO support the GFS so a weighted consensus still has potential for a significant storm event. I would rate it about a 50-50 proposition at this point. Most of the non-storm "50" would be fair and warm as an alternative. So while the weather forum hard-core will be rooting for a storm, many others will be hoping for the fair and warm, I would guess.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Continuing sunny and very warm or hot in much of the western half of North America and extending well north of the Canadian border although eventually cloud and rain are encountered in northern B.C. and the Yukon. Somewhat cooler than average across the Great Lakes region and somewhat further south with rain along a stationary front becoming heavy or torrential closer to Tennessee and Alabama where remnants of Lee are dying slowly. Katia, now a cat-4 hurricane, is moving northwest well to the south of Bermuda (and north of Haiti & Dominican Rep).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm again on Monday (which was Labour Day here) although with a pleasant cooling sea breeze, about 25 C as a result here, but 30-35 C further inland.

:cool:

M.T. Cranium · 07-09-2011 06:36AM

Wednesday, 7 September, 2011
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The trend on almost all guidance for the extratropical remnant low of Katia is slightly towards stronger wind potential in the northwest, as a very intense low is shown within 100-200 miles of Donegal Bay. There is a spread in model solutions, with the UKMO weakest, but the leading models as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions show potential for very strong winds as early as Sunday night (peaking Monday morning in most outlooks). If you live in the northwest and especially if you have any interests in coastal or marine weather, read the Monday forecast and follow our updates.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brief brighter intervals, outbreaks of rain but more persistent in the far north where 3-5 mms may fall, otherwise, trace to about 2 mms and long dry intervals. Rather cool especially in the westerly breezes of 20-40 mph (sometimes gusting to near 50 mph northwest coast). Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, outbreaks of light rain or fog, mist, heavier rain possible in far north, 3-5 mms potential there. Lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, more chance of a few sunny breaks in the southeast, probably staying overcast in west and north where rain more likely at times, humid and quite warm with southwest winds 20-40 mph, highs about 20 C inland south to 16 C north.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy southeast, overcast with showers and risk of a thundershower elsewhere in moderate southerly winds 25-40 mph, very mild or warm, humid, lows near 12 C and highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy (S-SW 25-45 mph), mild to warm, frequent showers developing, chance of thunder ... lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy (WSW 20-35 mph), showers, becoming windy in the evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Possible storm force SW winds in Atlantic marine areas by evening, spreading to coastal fringes by early Monday morning.

Monday ... For most regions, variable cloud, some showers, some sunny intervals, rather windy (SW 30-50 mph) and quite warm, highs near 21 C inland and 17 C coastal. For the northwest, especially Galway, Mayo and Donegal, potential for gales or storm force winds (SW 45-70 mph) with hurricane force winds possible around Donegal Bay and in marine areas west and northwest of the Mayo-Galway coasts. Clare, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim into west Ulster also at risk of some higher gusts. Temperatures steady near 15-16 C.

TUESDAY ... Winds gradually easing and becoming westerly, not as warm, a few showers north, mostly dry further south, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A settled, dry and possibly rather warm period may follow as high pressure builds in the wake of Katia.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny and hot in most western regions. Warm and dry with northerly winds in Texas making it very tough for fire-fighters to control raging bush and forest fires. Heavy rains southeast and east central states. Katia well southwest of Bermuda creating heavy swells on east coast and tropical storm winds in Bermuda itself. Expect Tropical Depression #14 located north of Guyana to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria fairly soon, it has a circulation and winds almost strong enough now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm on Tuesday, 27 C locally and well into the 30s further inland.

M.T. Cranium · 07-09-2011 08:12PM

UPDATE _ Wed 7 Sept 2011 _ 8 p.m.
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Just an update on latest guidance on Katia's encounter with northwest Ireland on Monday ... will wait for 0600 morning forecast to issue any revised numbers but the trend is very slightly weaker overall in terms of wind potential on land, about the same for wind over marine regions, and trending towards 0600-0900h Monday for timing of strongest winds in Ireland.

The details remind me of a horse race where some horses are coming on and others falling back. The UKMO has really intensified the most and also seems to have the closest track to Donegal Bay (all guidance continues to keep the centre north of land and eventually into the Faeroes to Shetland region). The GFS has not changed much, the NHC analysis continues with another forward step in their five-day outlook along the original path, the European model looks a touch weaker and further out to sea than before, and the Canadian GEM model is now backing off its intense solution but adding an implausible pause on Monday to make this the only significant model advertising a Tuesday encounter now (and that one fairly similar to the other Monday forecasts). There are a few other models to consider, if I find anything really different on any of them, I will make a note here later -- but in any case my forecast philosophy is to take a weighted average of these main sources. If there's no change by the morning guidance, expect perhaps a 5-10 mph downgrade in the forecast but still the potential for minor wind damage in coastal regions, high surf, and unusually high tides.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria has formed as expected and is heading towards the Virgin Islands, northern Puerto Rico and later the Bahamas as a slowly intensifying storm of marginal hurricane strength, according to the NHC and most of the model guidance.

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2011 07:43AM

Thursday, 8 September, 2011
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The forecast remains similar with guidance converging on a very stormy period late Sunday night into Monday for the north and west in particular.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, more chance of a few sunny breaks by mid-day and afternoon in the southeast, probably staying overcast in west and north where light rain more likely at times, 2-4 mms on average there, humid and quite warm with southwest winds 15-30 mph, highs about 19 C inland south to 16 C close to north and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, very mild, further outbreaks of light rain in a southerly breeze, lows near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy southeast, overcast with showers and risk of a thundershower elsewhere in moderate southerly winds 25-40 mph, very mild or warm, humid, lows near 12 C and highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy (S-SW 25-45 mph), mild to warm, frequent showers developing, chance of thunder ... lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy (WSW 20-35 mph), showers, becoming windy in the evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Possible storm force SW winds in Atlantic marine areas by evening, spreading to coastal fringes by early Monday morning.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY ... For most regions, variable cloud, some showers, some sunny intervals in the south on Monday, rather windy (SW 30-50 mph) and quite warm, highs near 20 C inland and 17 C coastal. For the northwest, especially Galway, Mayo and Donegal, potential for gales or storm force winds (SW 45-70 mph) with hurricane force winds possible around Donegal Bay and in marine areas west and northwest of the Mayo-Galway coasts. Clare, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim into west Ulster also at risk of some higher gusts. Temperatures steady near 15-16 C. Frequent heavy or squally showers in the north and west, isolated showers more the rule in the southeast. All of the above due to the close passage of extratropical Hurricane Katia which should be near Donegal Bay around 0600-0900h Monday. Very large swells and possible minor storm surges into Galway Bay and other west-facing harbours and bays. Waves in marine areas running 8 to 12 metres.

TUESDAY ... Winds gradually easing and becoming westerly, not as warm, a few showers, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Although it may take a few days to clear away the remnant northerly flow and a few showers in eastern counties, a settled, dry and possibly rather warm period may follow around the following weekend as high pressure builds in the wake of Katia.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, sunny weather covers the western half except in northern districts -- continued showers or heavy rain in the east and southeast. Besides Katia, now west of Bermuda, we are now dealing with Tropical Storms Maria and Nate. Maria is heading for the Virgin Islands and Nate is gearing up for a run north in the Gulf of Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, hot on Wednesday, high near 28 C.

See the Boards "Katia" and "potential storm Monday 12th" threads for further information and discussions.

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2011 07:43PM

UPDATE _ Thursday, 8 September, 2011 _ 7:45 pm
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ADVANCE ALERT for SEVERE STORM conditions arriving after midnight Sunday into early Monday and lasting through most of Monday as the extratropical low (Katia) may pass dangerously close to Ireland on a track east-north-eastward through Donegal Bay. As available guidance begins to converge on a more intense solution closer to land, the forecast could potentially shift to include severe wind gusts of 80-100 mph (or 70-90 knots, or 130-160 km/hr) affecting not only the northwest coast where the strongest gusts could be expected in any case, but large parts of the rest of the country with the least severe conditions in valleys of the inland southeast. This begins to expand the potential damaging wind threat to most of the more populated regions and larger cities in Ireland. There is also an increasing risk of battering waves and storm surge given the timing of the storm at the full moon (12 Sept). We hope that future guidance will clarify this developing and dangerous situation timed for 0100 to 1500h Monday, but the trend today is ominously towards more severe conditions.

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2011 06:44AM

Friday, 9 September, 2011
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ADVANCE ALERT for SEVERE STORM conditions arriving shortly after midnight Sunday into early Monday and lasting through most of Monday as the extratropical low (Katia) may pass dangerously close to Ireland on a track east-north-eastward through Donegal Bay. The current forecast indicates severe wind gusts of 70-100 mph (or 60-90 knots, or 110-160 km/hr) affecting not only the northwest coast where the strongest gusts could be expected in any case, but large parts of the rest of the country with the least severe conditions in valleys of the inland southeast. We are currently expecting gusts to about 65 knots (75-80 mph or 125 km/hr) in and around Dublin and 55 knots (about 65 mph or 90 km/hr in Cork). See forecasts for details including timing. We caution that this forecast represents the most probable outcome from current guidance but there are chances (perhaps 1 in 3) that the storm will be less intense, or (very unlikely) more intense than this forecast represents.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some hazy sunshine, brief showers at first, turning a bit heavier in the west later, quite warm in southerly breezes 15-30 mph, highs 17-21 C with the warmest readings inland south to central. Some risk of a thundershower in the inland west by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Showers and a few thundershowers developing in moderate southeast to south winds 20-35 mph, very mild, close ... lows 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Showery, breezy to windy at times, a few sunny intervals in the mix, warm but turning slightly cooler in the west, highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy with showers at first, a few hours of sunshine here and there, warm again with lows near 12 C and highs near 19 or 20 C except 15-17 C in northwest where rain more persistent.

Gale and then storm force southwest winds will likely arrive during the evening on the west coast and spread east overnight. Heavy squally showers with thunder will race east ahead of the main band of stormy winds but may produce locally severe gusts themselves. Generally speaking winds will start out SSW 30-50 mph and end up WSW 50-80 mph in most places, except where noted as potentially more severe.

Sunday night into Monday ... storm to hurricane force wind gusts developing with potential for gusts to 100 mph in coastal regions north of the Shannon estuary, and in some exposed areas further inland. Less severe wind gusts to 70 or 80 mph will rapidly spread across all other regions before dawn Monday, except closer to 50 mph in more sheltered parts of the inland southeast, with a few squally showers or thunderstorms south, squally outbreaks of thundery rain north and central. Rain potential 5-20 mms heaviest in Connacht and Ulster. Risk of tornadic wind streaks to be updated closer to event. Temperatures steady near 15 C north to 18 C south, briefly rising to near 20 C morning south and east, then dropping off gradually during Monday to 14-16 C in westerly gales or storm force winds.

These severe winds could produce local damage to trees, roofs and some poorly secured buildings and objects. Driving may become very dangerous especially in the west. The period of strongest winds will last about 9-12 hours and therefore may last from after midnight to mid-day before slight easing in the west, and from 0400 to mid-afternoon in the east.

There is a considerable risk of coastal flooding in the west from tidal surges or very high tides, battering waves associated with 10-15 metre waves in the open Atlantic. Galway Bay and the Shannon estuary, as well as parts of Donegal Bay, could see severe local flooding, as well as some harbours of smaller extent. South coast should be less affected and east coast will be largely spared these effects.

Later Monday, some sunshine likely across the south in strong westerly winds, cloudy with rain or drizzle blowing sideways at times in the north. Severe winds will last well into Monday evening in Donegal and north Ulster.

The situation is being continuously monitored and updates will be issued whenever warranted.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Remaining breezy to windy at times, cool, some showers or longer periods of drizzle or rain in north, some sunshine at times south and east, winds generally 30-50 mph, highs near 15 C, overnight lows near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming up gradually later in the week, some showers with a weaker system on Thursday, potential for some longer sunny intervals by the weekend with much calmer winds indicated.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny, hot across the west again. Rain from Lee's remnant low beginning to turn more to patchy drizzle now in east central states. Katia now off to southeast of Cape Cod heading rapidly east. Nate winding up in southern Gulf to become a hurricane threatening eastern Mexico by Monday-Tuesday. Maria maintaining minimal tropical storm status east of Guadeloupe heading for the Virgin Islands. This storm is expected to become a hurricane by mid-week north of the Bahamas and may head for Newfoundland and then Iceland allowing high pressure to remain over Ireland in about ten days' time.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, hot on Thursday, highs near 29 C. Record highs further inland near 35 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2011 08:28PM

UPDATE _ Friday, 9 Sept 2011 _ 8:30 p.m.
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Slight changes in the guidance today for the storm event on Monday, but probably not enough change to revise wording in the advance alert, except to say that potential peak gusts around Dublin now look closer to 55-60 knots than 65 knots. Most of the other estimates remain valid and there are the usual ups and downs in model depictions that, taken as a composite, continue to indicate potential for damaging wind gusts in coastal regions north of Clare around to Donegal and into parts of Northern Ireland.

There has also been a trend towards a later arrival by a few hours so that the strongest winds now seem likely between 0600 and 1500h on the west and northwest coasts. Since the southerly winds ahead of the storm may prove equally strong for locations in the east and south, the timing issues have not changed there.

In any case, I place more importance at this point on waiting for the 00z model runs that will have absorbed data from the acceleration phase of Katia as the storm (still a cat-1 hurricane) moves rapidly east-north-east to the south of Newfoundland overnight.

"Storm surge" issues on the west coast may be more accurately described as concerns about local flooding and overtopping of seawalls, but apparently most locations have their astronomical low tides around mid-day on Monday about when the strongest winds sweep through Galway, Mayo and Donegal. The situation should play out with 0.5 metre rises in the early morning high tides, an almost complete absence of low tides as water is driven into the west coast mid-day, then a slight peak again 0.5 metres above normal levels in the late afternoon. The northeast part of Donegal Bay's coastline could see the highest tidal anomalies, followed by Westport area and Galway where I'm told the south shoreline is more prone to flooding problems.

A major forecast update can be expected around 0600h Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2011 07:30AM

Saturday, 10 September, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds reaching storm force at times in Connacht and west Ulster, late Sunday into mid-day Monday, gusts to 75 knots on land and possibly higher over nearby Atlantic marine areas ... gale to storm force gusts in other parts of Ireland Sunday night into Monday morning may reach 55 knots in exposed locations ... also some squally showers or thunderstorms during the event ... although most recent guidance seems to edge the track of Katia slightly further north, the evolution remains uncertain and "too close to call" given the indicated wind speeds across Donegal Bay.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with a few brief sunny or brighter intervals, sporadic showers and one or two heavier thunderstorms but rainfalls quite variable place to place (3-15 mms) ... still rather warm with highs near 18 C. Winds veering more to south then southwest, 20-40 mph except 30-50 mph in coastal northwest.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, mild, showers or a few brief thundershowers, winds continuing SW 20-40 mph, lows near 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, becoming windy later in the afternoon, intervals of cloud and sunshine, rather warm in south where highs 17-19 C, more overcast in north with highs 14-17 C. Winds south to southwest 15-30 mph at first, rising later to 30-50 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Stormy with blustery southwest winds developing, heavy or squally showers with thunder and hail mixed with a few clear breaks, winds rising to SSW 40-60 mph in many areas and 50-80 mph in coastal west and northwest. Strongest winds towards daybreak, overnight temperatures steady near 15 C north to 17 C south.

MONDAY ... Windy or very windy, with storm force wind gusts west and later north, to near hurricane force in exposed locations of northwest coast (SW veering WSW 50-80 mph), while further south in most of Leinster and Munster, gale force winds at times, showers clearing away east with some sunny intervals, winds WSW 35-55 mph ... temperatures in the north around 15-17 C but rising to near 20 C in southeast during the morning before levelling off near 17 C later.

Some risk of wind damage and coastal flooding around high tides or during very strong winds mainly in north Clare, coastal Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Donegal, as well as wind damage in higher parts of Connacht exposed to west.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 20-40 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A warmer, dry interval, as long as the next hurricane (Maria) tracks as expected further north towards Iceland around next weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Sunny, hot western half, some outbreaks of rain from remnants of Lee in PA, wNY, otherwise cloudy and rather cool in northeast U.S., hot and humid in southeast. Maria now approaching Virgin Islands, Nate trying to become a hurricane in southern Gulf of Mexico but likely to fall short and head west into Veracruz region of Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, very warm again, highs 25-30 C in the region on Friday.

Updates as required to this forecast will be posted, it's one of those hope for the best and plan for the worst situations but other than some exposed coastal locations the Sunday night and Monday storm may not be that severe on current indications.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2011 09:32PM

UPDATE _ Saturday, 10 September, 2011 _ 9:30 p.m.
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With rather conflicting signals in guidance this afternoon and evening, the ALERT for Sunday night into Monday (re "Katia") is maintained for now at the same levels as previously. We see roughly equal chances of the alert being verified at current strength, or at about 10 to 15 mph (say 10 knots) lower than stated. There remains the slight risk of a stronger outcome than our alert which we currently rate at 10%.

A further update will be issued between midnight and 0100h. The regular forecast at 0600h and Sunday's updates will probably be able to discuss in more detail the likely outcome as the storm approaches, including the strength and severity of any squall lines or thunderstorms breaking out ahead of the storm, as its frontal system begins to develop. As an ex-tropical cyclone only barely completing transition, fronts have just begun to appear with the low in the past few hours. This process may accelerate just as the storm approaches northwest Ireland.

In other words, be prepared for a wide range of local weather conditions that may include some severe wind gusts, squally showers or thundershowers, but also some fair weather intervals especially in the south by Monday, as a lot of the energy from this storm will sweep through Ireland overnight (Sunday-Monday) ahead of the storm's closest approach to Mayo and Donegal. However, in those counties and nearby, the effects may be more prolonged and continuous than elsewhere.

And in case anyone's wondering, Katia did not arrive early, tonight's rather blustery SW winds are from a disturbance that is being shoved forward and out of the way by onrushing Katia. It is also being energized by the same strong jet stream as Katia itself. There may be a slight lull in these stronger winds tomorrow morning in some regions before another increase towards late afternoon and evening.

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2011 01:26AM

Update -- Sunday, 11 September, 0130h
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Holding the ALERTS at previous levels for now ... guidance continues to suggest a slight downgrade but actual track of Katia continues to suggest caution on that ... no further updates likely until forecast time (0630h).

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2011 06:50AM

Sunday, 11 September, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds and gusty showers or thunderstorms spreading in from the southwest tonight and easing mid-day Monday although some severe gusts could then continue in the north. Peak gusts may reach 90 mph (about 80 knots) in the northwest and much more locally in any severe storms further south. Some wind damage may result. There are also risks of coastal flooding from very high tides and large waves, swells.

TODAY ... Some further moderate rain across the north, easing mid-day, variable cloud further south, more showers likely by mid-day there, these moving rapidly northeast in a strengthening SW wind of 30-50 mph. Rather warm and humid especially in the south, highs ranging from 15 C far north to 20 C south. Rainfalls 10-20 mms on average, heavier in Ulster and later in southwest to inland south.

TONIGHT ... Becoming stormy with gale or storm force southwest winds in most regions, and some heavy showers or thunderstorms with locally severe gusts possible as a result. Winds SSW 40-60 mph for most, local gusts could reach 90 mph with some damage potential. Updates will handle any developing thunderstorm cells or clusters. Temperatures will be very sultry as tropical air sweeps in, and it could be near 18 or even 20 C for a good part of the overnight except 14-16 C in the far north. Rainfalls 10-30 mms, amounts dependent on tracks of heavy showers but likely to peak in west-central counties.

MONDAY ... West, northwest and north coastal counties could see a spell of storm force wind gusts in SW winds 50-80 mph, with passing showers that could be very squally in places. Highs about 16 C. South of about the Shannon estuary, the winds may not be as severe, and a clearing trend may develop fairly early on. High waves of 8-15 metres and large swells can be expected on the west coast. Some local flooding is likely especially around high tides (morning and evening hours).

For central, southern and eastern counties ... The heavy showers and storms should blast eastward in the morning and sunshine may follow for the south in moderately strong southwest winds veering westerly at 35-55 mph; highs for these regions 18-21 C. The severe storm risk may end latest by 0900 or 1000h in the east. Some places may see sunshine much of the day, although low cloud may scud in from the Atlantic some distance into the southwest at times.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 25-55 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, winds WNW 20-40 mph, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly north, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals and possibly some sunshine, but there will be a risk of showers too, with highs about 17 C. At the moment, future hurricane Maria is expected to track well north towards Iceland but may extend a showery trough similar to Irene's final actions, affecting Ireland eventually.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, dry in west, local showers further east and cooler than normal in most regions. Nate getting ready to chug onshore as a minimal hurricane near Veracruz, Mexico. Maria is regaining some lost strength near the Virgin Islands.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a sunny, warm day with highs near 25 C locally and 30-35 C further inland.

Updates when required ... guidance was somewhat mixed even at this late hour (meaning close to the event, not on the clock) ... the last position from satellite for Katia was about 50 N and 28 W ... the two European-based models seem to have jogged back to a more intense solution, which I have followed above ... a point I would like to stress is that the west and north coast damaging winds are not the only story of this storm, the potential for overnight frontal storms must be watched closely as well. And those could affect more populated areas all over the country.

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2011 09:29PM

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11 Sept 2011 _ 9:30 p.m.
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Storm's current centre appears to be about 964 mbs at 53N 21W, tracking east-north-east to reach 56N 10W by 0900h.

Development of a strong wind field has been held back today as colder air races east to catch up to the fast-moving low, which has allowed the centre to retain some hybrid characteristics as it continues to be largely embedded in remnant tropical air mass that forms a large warm sector now, approaching Ireland from the southwest.

The warm front is now located from about Galway to Wicklow moving steadily northeast. The air mass in the warm sector will be misty to foggy with temperatures tending to rise slowly overnight especially inland, possibly reaching as high as 17-19 C later on.

Expect this warm sector to become unstable towards 0600h as a cold front develops and rotates around the storm centre (which may show some tendency to deepen also). This will give the risk of a few gusty thunderstorms in central and southeast counties towards daybreak, and into the Dublin area around 0800h. That may be followed by at least partial clearance of skies south of about Galway to Meath. Further north, the cloudy and showery circulation around the low centre will probably remain with only brief clear breaks between showers. That circulation will also become stronger as unstable air develops, so on the west and northwest coast, expect rather moderate winds most of the night from a southerly direction, rapidly rising to gale or storm force around daybreak, veering S to SW and increasing from about 30-40 mph to 50-80 mph. The high tides of about 06h may be running as much as a metre above tide table predictions. Large waves and swells will begin crashing ashore shortly after daybreak.

The rest of Monday should go as stated in the main forecast, very windy at times with squally showers more frequent in the northern half of the country and some longer sunny spells in the southern half except possibly near the Kerry to south Clare coasts where low cloud may frequently come scudding inland. Your reports tomorrow will be very interesting, there should be quite a mixed bag of weather conditions with the westerly flow. Don't be surprised if the gusty winds have a large range of wind speeds as much stronger winds occasionally mix down from just above the surface. Higher exposed locations could have some very strong gusts (to near 80 knots).

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2011 11:41PM

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11:45 p.m.
____________________________

No major changes, just a confirmation from most recent 18z model runs that very strong SW winds can be expected to develop around 0300h then rise to peak intensity 0600h to 0900h in west coast counties, slightly later timetable for Donegal and west Ulster. Further south, peak winds will probably come and go during the day depending on local showers, trough lines etc, but there will be a trend towards peak winds mid-day on east coast.

As this is our last forecast before onset, peak wind speeds are now predicted as follows: 70-80 knots in exposed locations of west and north, 50-60 knots most other places, 40 knots in sheltered locations inland (especially in deeper valleys). There may be some locally intense wind effects near hills. We expect these winds to occur shortly after daybreak with some chance of seeing equal or almost equal severity through to about mid-day.

Watch for updates about any thunderstorm cells that may produce locally strong winds. Otherwise the next forecast update will be with the main forecast statement at 0600h.

M.T. Cranium · 12-09-2011 06:41AM

Monday, 12 September, 2011
____________________________________

ALERT for storm force wind gusts across the north and west today, and local hurricane force gusts in exposed coastal and hilly locations ... gale to storm force gusts further east and south. Possible coastal flooding, large waves, swells.

TODAY ... The storm has broken on the west coast with gusts already over 55 knots (near 65 mph). This morning, storm force SW winds 50-80 mph in exposed locations in west and north coast counties, some local damage to trees and buildings possible. Mainly cloudy with the strong winds, brief showers or drizzle. Large waves 8-15 metres, very large swells likely (full moon is today at about 0930h). Risk of coastal flooding. Temperatures steady near 14 or 15 C.

Further south and east, gale to storm force SW winds, brief showers, becoming partly cloudy, some longer sunny intervals developing, but risk of a brief gusty shower or thunderstorm. Temperatures may have already peaked during the night but may recover a few degrees later on to reach 18-20 C.
Winds SW 35-55 mph with some higher gusts possible.

Further rainfall amounts today only 1-3 mms for most places.

Winds should ease gradually late afternoon in the coastal northwest, and by evening in Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Winds slowly easing to WNW 25-55 mph, rain or drizzle in parts of north, clear to partly cloudy further south, winds WNW 20-40 mph, cooler, lows 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy (WNW 30-50 mph), a few squally showers in north, variable cloud with isolated showers further south. There may be a spell of stronger winds and heavier showers with a secondary front dropping south late afternoon to evening. Highs 15-17 C south, 12-14 C north.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly north, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud after a sunny start, showers by evening, breezy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some dry intervals and possibly some sunshine, but there will be a risk of showers too, with highs about 17 C. At the moment, future hurricane Maria is expected to track well north towards Iceland but may extend a showery trough similar to Irene's final actions, affecting Ireland eventually.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Hot, sunny weather continued on Sunday in most of the western half, although much cooler by afternoon in central and northern Alberta and B.C. with a cold front dropping slowly south. It continues a bit on the cool side in the eastern half of the continent. Nate moved inland in Mexico and never became a hurricane. Maria continues on track to move up the Gulf Stream but instead of following Katia's track, she will slam into Newfoundland around Friday and continue north towards Greenland, spreading out in the Greenland-Iceland region later.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and hot on Sunday, no sea breeze so temperatures soared to about 31 C. It may have been a daily record, close anyway.

Check the discussion threads as well as here for updates. Peak winds in Mayo Clare, Galway should be arriving soon. More like 0900-1100 for Donegal.

M.T. Cranium · 13-09-2011 07:04AM

Tuesday, 13 September, 2011
___________________________________

TODAY ... Remaining quite blustery although not stormy, westerly winds about 25-45 mph, a few higher gusts possible mid-day in Donegal (to 55 mph) and cloudy for most regions, a little sunshine at times mainly in the southeast, short-lived squally showers but also some rain and drizzle in the far north, amounts rather small. Highs 12-14 C north, 14-16 C south.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing well after midnight, light showers ending, winds dropping off to light in the inland south but moderate west to northwest elsewhere, lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers north, moderate northwest winds at times, cool, highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Clearing, mist patches, chilly, local ground frost likely, lows 2-5 C except in more sheltered locations.

THURSDAY ... Sunny periods, increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon or evening moving into west, moderate southeast winds developing. Highs from 15 to 18 C warmest in east.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals, 5-15 mms rainfall likely, foggy at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south, likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, a bit warmer.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The western warm spell is being suppressed into the inland regions of the western U.S. while western Canada cools down in an expanding arctic high that has dropped mid-day temperatures into the low to mid teens (from near 30 earlier). The east has temporarily warmed up but this colder air is slowly spreading southeast and should overspread the Great Lakes region then the northeast towards the end of the week, while remnants of "Maria" move up the Gulf stream offshore and combine with the fronts near Newfoundland on Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday remained sunny but was a bit cooler than the weekend with a high near 20 C and a refreshing sea breeze. Bright full moon this evening, but expecting low cloud soon from marine layer cloud.

M.T. Cranium · 14-09-2011 06:40AM

Wednesday, 14 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly overcast at first, becoming partly cloudy, with a few isolated showers mainly in the north, and moderate west to northwest winds at times (15-30 mph), feeling rather cool, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, mist patches, chilly, local ground frost likely, lows 2-5 C except in more sheltered locations.

THURSDAY ... Sunny periods, increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon or evening moving into west, moderate southeast winds developing. Highs from 15 to 18 C warmest in east.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals, 5-15 mms rainfall likely, foggy at times, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Becoming breezy or windy later in the day in parts of Munster.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Periods of rain Sunday night may affect most regions, then brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south on Monday and Tuesday, although likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, turning a bit warmer especially across the south.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... An extensive outbreak of colder weather is moving across the Great Lakes now from a source in north central Canada. High pressure further west may bring the first frosts to the western and central prairies and this chill now extends well south of the border, although it is still very warm across the south central and southeast U.S. ... Tropical Storm Maria is struggling to survive and may not make it all the way to Newfoundland before being absorbed by the low in Quebec that is leading the advance of the colder air mentioned above.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, cooler than recent days, high of 17 C on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 15-09-2011 06:24AM

Thursday, 15 September, 2011
______________________________________

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although brighter at times in eastern and southern counties, while some light drizzly rain develops further west with showers over parts of Ulster. Milder and feeling pleasant in any brief sunshine, light southeast winds picking up southwest to northwest coasts later, highs about 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain developing from west to east, 5-15 mms potential, foggy by midnight in many places, winds SE 15-25 mph, lows 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, just a few brighter intervals developing mainly in the southwest, 3-15 mms further rainfall likely with heavier amounts in northeast due to later start, foggy at times with the rain, and highs near 15 C. Becoming breezy or windy later in the day in parts of Munster, WSW 20-40 mph there, but SE 20 mph ahead of the clearing in the rain.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with blustery showers especially across the north and west, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy or squally, but still partly cloudy with a few brief showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Periods of rain Sunday night may affect most regions, then brighter intervals developing as high pressure edges closer to south on Monday and Tuesday, although likely to remain overcast and showery in northern counties, turning a bit warmer especially across the south.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Colder air is gradually pushing further south but the southeast and south central U.S. remain warm to hot and humid. Not very much active weather, as a weak return flow around the central high brings extensive cloud and drizzle in some areas of the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy with light SE winds and highs of about 17 C. Dry here but showers not far away to north.

M.T. Cranium · 16-09-2011 06:45AM

Friday, 16 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning showers with risk of thunder across the north and east, with a further 5-10 mms of rain likely there. Some sunny breaks developing south and west, before cloud returns followed by a few scattered showers. Winds ahead of the front SE 15-20 mph rapidly veering to westerly 20-40 mph with higher gusts near the southwest coast. Highs generally 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, cool, further showers in westerly winds of 20-30 mph, and lows around 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional showers that could contain hail and thunder, blustery at times with winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs 14-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Following more overnight showers or periods of light rain, and lows near 8 C, the day should slowly improve to an afternoon of sunny intervals, diminishing north-westerly winds, and highs near 15 C. Some places may have quite a chilly night to follow with lows 3-7 C.

MONDAY ... Rain possible in the north at times, partly cloudy across the south, where it should warm up somewhat after a cool start, highs 15-18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled especially in the north, showery spells becoming quite frequent, temperatures near normal. A stormy period could follow in another week.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... The dominant feature a cool modified arctic air mass bringing sharp frosts to central and some eastern regions, while Hurricane Maria accelerates towards St John's in the southeast tip of Newfoundland where it may hit around 8:30 p.m. Irish time or 5 p.m. local time. Some welcome rains in Texas and Oklahoma earlier, although not drought-breaking.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, some light rain at times, high on Thursday about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2011 07:20AM

Saturday, 17 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with widespread thundery showers, some with hail, and a slight risk of s isolated small tornadoes. If the sun comes out, it will likely mean more storms are brewing. Rather cool in a blustery west or WNW breeze 20-35 mph, some higher gusts near squally showers. Hail to 2 cms in diameter could produce slippery road conditions. Highs 14-15 C. Rainfalls in the 7-15 mm range, probably higher across the south where heavy storms appear most likely (although they could break out almost everywhere).

TONIGHT ... Further showers, breezy and cool with lows near 9 C, winds westerly 15-25 mph, still a slight chance of hail or thunder.

SUNDAY ... Although the morning may continue unsettled, a bit more sunshine should break through by mid-day and some places may have a more pleasant afternoon although it could stay unsettled in the far north and most of Ulster. Highs 14-17 C highest in southwest. Periods of rain may develop by evening or overnight.

MONDAY ... Morning showers ending, partly cloudy and a bit milder in a more humid W to SW flow, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mild and humid, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled although perhaps some longer dry intervals in the south, looking rather stormy towards the following weekend. Temperatures a degree or so above normal.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... In general, the summer pattern has been pushed to the southern states while autumnal air masses have sagged well south, with frosts in the Great Lakes region. The last gasp of Hurricane Maria was a windy day in Newfoundland on Friday and now that tropical system has been fully absorbed by a deep low on the Labrador coast. The complex is now heading northeast towards the south tip of Greenland. Meanwhile, stormy in Utah with these storms spreading towards Colorado.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy but dry with the high around 18 C on Friday.

M.T. Cranium · 18-09-2011 07:38AM

Sunday, 18 September, 2011
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TODAY ... Rather windy to start, especially around Donegal where a northerly gale may continue for part of the morning. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds 15-30 mph should ease off to westerly 10-20 mph by afternoon. Showers will become much less frequent and sunshine may prevail by afternoon, with cloud rapidly increasing again by sunset. Highs 14-17 C, mildest in the south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain advancing from west to east, potential for 5-10 mms heavier in the north-central counties. Lows 9-12 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending, some breaks in the overcast developing to hazy sunshine at times, moderate WSW winds 15-30 mph, and a bit warmer, more humid. Highs around 17 C. Further showers could develop.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, drizzle at times, or light rain especially in Connacht, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C south, 14 C north. Moderate southwest winds 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy at times (W 25-40 mph), a few showers developing in the north, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild to warm, humid, outbreaks of rain possible by later in the day, lows near 9 C and highs 16-19 C. Potentially very windy by late in the day.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, windy, lows near 12 C and highs near 16.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, windy, showers. There are some signs of a warmer and briefly dry spell following the weekend (but rather tentative at present).

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... A strong frontal zone has developed across the south-central U.S. with heavy to severe storms in a few places, and quite a contrast between summery heat to the south and autumn chill further north. Widespread frost in the Great Lakes region and inland northeast states. Somewhat warmer in western Canada although not above normal values.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with a few brief showers, highs near 17 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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