Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

df1985

91011 wrote: »

The combination of these 2 phrases haven't rung true for a long time -

Warm Dry Sunny + Bank Holiday Weekend

Wouldn't it be absolutely great to get really good weather from Thursday 3rd through to the following Tuesday. (I like to extend my bank holiday:D)

apart from last year which was a scorcher???

Mars Bar

df1985 wrote: »

apart from last year which was a scorcher???

Yeah last years was unreal. I refer to the weather that we had last Saturday at this time of the year as the "Ocean Race Weather".

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 29 May, 2010
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I think it's a bit early to be making promises for the Bank holiday weekend, but the indications are fairly positive so far ... however, it's the kind of pattern where the models can be well off the mark in five to seven days (a slow but mobile progressive pattern, that is to say) ...

... here's what I feel more definite about ...

TODAY will be a case of slowly improving weather for most, as the rain is pretty much over already in western counties and should taper off soon in eastern counties (Ulster may hold on to rain longer, to mid-day). It won't totally clear once the rain is done, and there could be a brief residual shower to follow, but skies should brighten and the sun may be out by mid-afternoon (more likely evening in eastern counties). Highs will be around 14-16 C. As this morning's low moves across the north-central counties, watch for moderate east winds to diminish to almost calm, then swing around to WSW later NW 15-30 mph. Stronger gusts could develop near the west coast.

TONIGHT should be mainly dry and relatively calm with partly cloudy skies, some longer clear intervals, and lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY will have a bright start, increasing cloud becoming quite a thick overcast in the west by evening, but further east a "watery sky" with the sun dimly visible. Spits of rain could begin by evening in the west. Highs will be generally 17-19 C and it will be a little more humid again.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with intervals of rain affecting mostly the western and northern counties. Warm and humid with moderate southerly breezes; some fog may develop near south coast. After mild morning lows of 7-10 C expect a high near 18 C (possibly 20 C in the southeast).

TUESDAY should see whatever rain develops coming to an early end, then slow clearing will allow enough sunshine to bring temperatures up to about 19 or 20 C. From then on, a rather warm, dry pattern evolves for the rest of the week. Highs could reach 22-24 C. There are no strong indications that this will break down to anything too dire, but the best of the weather may come before the weekend, let's just leave it at that for now and see how systems develop. There is not much eastward pressure on weather systems as everything over North America has stalled and actually has moved a little back to the west in terms of large-scale features. A cold front recently moved southwest through New York City and then Washington DC, and further west, the storm track is pretty much stuck from Nevada to Manitoba. Longer range trends look more blocked and all taken together, these are indicators for slow changes and somewhat warmer than average weather in western Europe.

Today here (Friday 28th) was cloudy with drizzle at times, in fact a rare "heavy drizzle" was noted at one point. The high was only about 15 C, but earlier it was actually snowing in Calgary where the normal high is about 20 C.

Well, I hope the rain moves out in time for your plans, but it was probably good to get a steady downpour for the gardens as it has been a dry month.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 30 May, 2010
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TODAY should remain dry in eastern counties at least until very late afternoon or evening. Western counties could see occasional rain, but this is moving in very slowly and the rain may not interfere with outdoor activities that much, except possibly in Kerry. Cloud, however, will spread rather steadily east and if there is some morning sunshine it will tend to become dimmed by mid-level cloud by early afternoon. Highs will range from 17-18 C east, to 15-17 C west.

TONIGHT will become misty or foggy with drizzle or light rain spreading further east although possibly in several weak waves. Lows will be quite mild at 9-12 deg C. Rainfall amounts may be in the 3-5 mm range.

MONDAY will continue overcast and humid with intermittent rain, rather light in the east, perhaps a bit heavier at times in the west. Highs will be about 17 or 18 C but it will be muggy. Rain may briefly become heavier late evening into the overnight.

TUESDAY the rain should end gradually from west to east in the early morning to mid-day then hazy sunshine may develop and it will stay quite warm, with lows near 10 C and highs of 19 or 20 C inland (17 C west coast).

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are still looking dry and warm for most parts, although the more recent guidance suggests a chance that cloud and light rain will be lurking near the west coast most of the time so there could be intervals of drizzly low cloud in the west. Highs each day will be into the low 20s (21-23 C) inland east and central, to 18-19 C coastal and western counties.

The BANK HOLIDAY WEEKEND at this point looks to be a case of slowly deteriorating weather as low pressure slowly moves closer to the southwest. While this is not really carved in stone, the best guess at this point is probably to say some rain in the west by Saturday and considerable rain across the country by Monday, with temperatures starting out reasonably warm and sliding down to the mid-teens later. Perhaps this will yet improve as we are still a week away from that.

Meanwhile, what is not improving is my own local weather; today was quite overcast with steady light rain and temperatures barely into the low teens. In Alberta they had as much as 10 cms of snow near Calgary, and further east very heavy rains in Manitoba, but it's hot and sunny in the Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 31 May, 2010
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy and rather warm with some hazy sunshine breaking through at times, also a few patches of light rain through the morning, followed by a somewhat more organized band of rain by late afternoon or evening. This will eventually give 5-10 mms of rain but it may hold off until quite late in the day. Highs will be 18-20 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy and mild with periods of rain, lows only 11-13 C. This rainfall will add a further 5-10 mms in the west but for the east this may be the whole event at 8-12 mms.

TUESDAY will start out cloudy with some light rain ending mid-morning in the east, while hazy sunshine gradually breaks through the overcast from west into central counties. By afternoon many areas should be sunny and the highs for the day will be 18-20 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY continues to look quite good for most regions with at least partial sunshine and reasonably warm temperatures reaching 19-22 C (the nights will be around 6-9 C). If there is any low cloud or drizzle this should be confined to a few intervals and locations near the west coast.

By SATURDAY there will be some increase in cloud but still fairly warm and dry with any showers well to the western side of the country, and highs of about 19-21 C. The rest of the Bank holiday weekend is looking somewhat unsettled although I think the latest guidance is a bit improved so that it should be no worse than variable cloud and isolated showers through Sunday and Monday. We'll see if this trend continues but at the moment I don't feel very confident of the model guidance for that period.

The weather here on Sunday (30th) was cloudy with a few brief showers by late afternoon with the high about 15 C. It was so mild here in February and March that there's a real feeling that time has stopped moving forward, the weather seems about the same now as it did then. Looks hot and humid for New York and Boston today, predicting highs near 34 C. Storms are moving into the Great Lakes from the upper Midwest. This front won't be dropping temperatures much, and it should stay very warm all week in the northeast U.S. with more of a cooling trend the following week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 June, 2010
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TODAY will start out cloudy but most of the rain is already over ... and gradually the sun should break through although some parts of the west and south coasts may stay foggy. Inland, highs may reach 19-21 C. Moderate westerly breezes will develop (10-20 mph).

TONIGHT will be misty or locally foggy with clear intervals well inland, and lows of about 4-7 C there, but 8-10 C closer to the south and west coasts.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy except for longer cloudy intervals in the west and south, where some drizzle could come and go. Highs will range from about 17 C in these coastal areas, to 20-22 C inland.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue much the same with hazy sunshine, rather warm days away from the west and south coasts, and highs reaching 21-23 C (inland). There may be some light rain at times by Friday afternoon in western counties.

For the Bank Holiday weekend, expect this pattern to break down gradually, Saturday should continue mainly warm and cloudy with rain at times, then Sunday and Monday will be partly cloudy with cooler temperatures and widespread showers, possibly heavy at times on Monday. Highs will be close to 20,18,16 for the three days. Nights should be reasonably mild near 8-9 C.

The weather here today (Monday 31st) was a bit improved over recent days, with a rather warm drizzly light rain in the morning, some brief sunny intervals by afternoon, and a high of about 19 C. Extreme heat seems to be building up over Texas and may become the big weather story in North America in coming days. Highs may exceed 40 C in places (but today was more like mid-30s).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 June, 2010
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Just noticed that this thread is now a year old -- thanks for dropping in.

TODAY will bring back the warm, sunny weather for most regions, although there could be longer intervals of low cloud and associated drizzle near the west and south coasts. Hopefully this will stay mostly over the water and outer headlands. Otherwise, highs may reach 20-22 C with just light and variable winds.

TONIGHT will be hazy and locally foggy again with lows of 6-9 C for most places, 10-12 C where the moist marine air is present.

THURSDAY will be almost a repeat performance except that it may be even warmer thanks to a southeast wind of 5-10 mph, but that will also tend to bring in the cooler marine layers a few miles further inland on the south coast, so that one or two places may see a cooler day instead. For many inland areas the highs may reach 21-24 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain mostly over western counties, and it will be quite humid, with highs of about 20 C following a morning low of only 9-11 C.

SATURDAY will bring further showers but some sunny intervals, and it should stay rather warm with highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable cloud and some locally heavy showers, but a more organized area of rain may arrive by afternoon in the west. Highs will be about 17 C in a fresher air mass of Atlantic origins, and there will be a rising westerly wind backing to southerly later.

MONDAY looks rather unsettled and could produce locally heavy showers, with highs only 14-17 C (although the morning will be mild, lows near 10 C). It probably won't be a day-long downpour so you may find some better intervals between the showers. Rainfalls from Sunday to late Monday may be in the 15-30 mm range.

The following week looks somewhat cooler than this week, and continuing rather unsettled. The week after that is advertised as warmer again, so the rough estimate for monthly temperature is around 0.5 to 1.0 C above average at this point.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday (1st June) here, we had a somewhat improved day with no rain until after sunset, a few sunny intervals, warm and humid (20 C). It has been raining a bit since 8 p.m. -- meanwhile, heat is building up over Texas and spreading to the north and northeast, and there are heavy storms tonight in Iowa and Missouri.

Something rather unusual on the maps at present -- a tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea south of Oman which could graze the coast there and move towards southern Pakistan. This tropical "theatre" only gets 2-3 storms a year on average but this is already number two for them.

DOCARCH

Happy Birthday thread! Keep up the good work MT - it's appreciated.

Darwin

DOCARCH wrote: »

Happy Birthday thread! Keep up the good work MT - it's appreciated.

Second that!

paulhac

Great work M.T. and thanks for all your forecasts. Here's to another 12 months!

glossy

paulhac wrote: »

Great work M.T. and thanks for all your forecasts. Here's to another 12 months!

+ 1

Trogdor

Fantastic work over the last year MT! It's much appreciated:D

glimmerman123

Thanks M.T. for all of your hard work over the past year. Looking forward to another year of accurate forecasting. Thanks Mate. :)

Deep Easterly

One year old :eek:. Congratulaions! Thanks for all the daily forecasts and regular updates when the weather gets exciting!

M.Ts forecast from this day last year:

Tuesday, 2 June, 2009 _ 0545h
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TODAY will be another fabulous warm and sunny day almost everywhere in Ireland. Like yesterday, it will be a touch cooler close to the east and south coasts, and quite a bit cooler right at the waterfront and out over the nearby waters (which are about 12-14 C about now). This will result in highs generally reaching 23 to 26 C in most parts today, with the same gradual reduction to near 15 C at the seafront. In those cooler locations, some fog may form although right now, it seems rather sparse compared to yesterday.

This day last year was the warmest day of 2009 over many parts of the country. Birr & Claremorris reached 27.5c, while Galway reached 28.6c. My own personal high that day was 28.9c which was reach on two occasions in the late afternoon.

Here is how the charts looked on the day M.T.C's forecast thread was born:

Synoptic set up:



850's:


Sat shot:



Keep up the great work M.T!

greysides

I would like to add my name to the list of thanks. I've looked in for the forecast more mornings than not. It's much appreciated.

homolumo

greysides wrote: »

I would like to add my name to the list of thanks. I've looked in for the forecast more mornings than not. It's much appreciated.

ditto

Super-Rush

Well done MT. First thread i look at each day. Should be stickied IMO.

Deep Easterly

super-rush wrote: »

Should be stickied IMO.

I'll second that motion.

Trogdor

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'll second that motion.

+1

Oh wait..i'm a mod..stickied:D

M.T. Cranium

Thanks very much, yes I wonder if we'll be talking about near 30 degC sunshine again this summer.

Su Campu

Yes, thanks a lot for all your forecasts. I'm only relatively new to this forum, but I find it admirable that you take the time each and every day to give such input to a forum on a tiny island 8 timezones away from you. And not only the forecasts, but now you've also undertaken a probably even bigger task in your alternative theory thread, which I'm really looking forward to!

pauldry

What a great day for the thread to be born huh?

It certainly looks like what you say for this weekend MT

M.T. Cranium

The main thing is, I'm enjoying the "work" I do here and most days it doesn't really feel like work. Now that I am more or less retired from bill-paying work, I spend a lot of time each day following weather events all around the world, as part of my research. From about 1980 to 2005, I spent what time I could mainly on North American weather. That was a period of time when I was working at non-weather-related jobs so I didn't have as much time and certainly not enough time to take this luxury of following weather events in many different parts of the globe. So having reached a point where I felt like it was now more necessary to expand the research than continue fine-tuning the North American part of it, I just happened to wander into the BBC weather forum in early 2005, met some people who were active at Net-weather and also helped start up a smaller forum (that now has UK and Irish members), met a few Irish weather enthusiasts including Darkman and Kindred Spirit who are members here, and they recommended boards.ie as another good place to obtain in-depth information.

I would say from about 2005 to 2007 it was mostly a case of getting more familiar with the weather patterns you have around your "tiny island" (I seem to remember it was big enough) and then getting more familiar with them, trying my hand at forecasting. I do have some more conventional background as well as my research ideas, and the way things actually work in practice, the computer models certainly pick up on and develop almost all the energy cycles that I find in my research so as a practical question I don't "use the theory" in my forecasts all that much, since the forecasting models are quite reliable nowadays for at least the first 3-4 days (with the usual uncertainties), but I should mention that on occasion I find an application of this research that finds its way into a forecast, and on occasion when I express confidence or doubt in some outcome about 7-10 days out, that may be based in part on the theoretical research too.

Anyway, it's my good fortune really to have stumbled across this weather forum and I find it a very friendly place where you get a lot more than just weather, so to call most of this "work" is really an overstatement. I may need a bit of help later this summer once the holiday plans are settled, or maybe we'll just take a break and if something big comes up the "crew" will probably discuss it anyway.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 June, 2010
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TODAY, some high cloud may dim the morning sunshine but this cloud should drift further east to allow some inland counties to feel quite warm, even hot perhaps, as highs reach 22-24 C. Highs around the east and south coast are likely to be closer to 19-20 C, but winds in general will be light SSE 5-10 mph.

TONIGHT, lower and thicker cloud will begin to drift into the west coast but light rain with this may remain near or even offshore; further east, expect some fog to develop in a mild, humid southerly flow with lows generally near 10 or 11 C.

FRIDAY, hazy sunshine may redevelop in the east but the thicker western cloud will slowly advance and may bring intervals of light rain further east also. Highs will range from near 17 C west, to near 21 C east, and 18-19 C in the south where some fog may drift inland a few miles before lifting to low cloud cover.

SATURDAY will continue rather warm with isolated showers, and highs of about 20 C on average.

SUNDAY will become more overcast with fairly well scattered showers developing especially in the southwest, with highs near 18 C.

MONDAY continues to look rather unsettled and a bit cooler again with highs of about 15 C and rainfalls of at least 5-15 mms on average. This disturbance will continue to drop rain on Tuesday, then the rest of the week looks slightly better as cloud begins to break to more of a partly cloudy pattern.

On Wednesday here (2nd of June) we had a bit of rain in the morning, some slow clearing later in the day, and it became quite windy in the evening as a weak front has just come inland from the Pacific. The high was about 18 C.

muckety

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Welsh Wizard

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Same here.. Thanks again M.T..... Who needs Met Eireann..

thetangler

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

Same as that.

Thanks M.T

rhonin

muckety wrote: »

I had palpitations when I couldn't see this morning's weather forecast... until I found it stickied!! Phew and thanks for the great work mtcranium!

You weren't the only one :pac:

Great work over the year Mr.T

MayoForSam

Well done on becoming 'stickified' MT, I find your forecasts to be spot on most days.

pauldry

Yeah MT,

Thanks for the forecasts. They really stand up well to what actually happens. Think a half wet/half dry Bank holiday is in the offing in the Wesht. At least the temps should hold up well although a minimum of 4.6c was observed in Claremorris last night!