Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 22 October, 2009
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TODAY will continue quite showery but the heavier showers will now be further to the north and northeast, so expect localized flooding to develop in a few parts of counties around Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and into Ulster. A few brighter spells may develop especially in the south and southwest by afternoon. Highs will reach 14 or 15 C with winds south veering more westerly at 15 mph or so. Rainfalls will be quite variable point to point, but could reach 20-30 mms in a few spots.

TONIGHT will see some general clearing as the showers die out, but with all the recent low-level moisture fog will quickly develop, as lows fall to about 6 or 7 C in rural areas, 10 C in the south coastal counties.

FRIDAY could have some longer dry intervals and some sun despite varying amounts of higher cloud, but rain is likely to be edging back into the south during the afternoon. Highs in most districts will reach about 13 or 14 C.

SATURDAY morning will be quite wet as yet another fairly strong frontal wave moves through, then the afternoon could see improvements with winds becoming fairly fresh WSW 20-40 mph. Highs will reach 14 C.

SUNDAY is likely to be a reasonably pleasant day after some low cloud in the morning, and winds diminishing and backing into the south again, with highs about 13 or 14 C.

MONDAY could see some morning hazy sunshine followed by thicker cloud and late afternoon or evening showers, highs near 15 C.

The rest of next week is looking like a case of moisture flowing steadily north across far western counties while the east may remain largely dry, being closer to a mild, dry anticyclone to be centered over southeast England and northeast France. With any luck the weather might be fairly pleasant much of the week especially in the east, but it's a long way off and rather finely balanced at this stage. Eventually there is likely to be an increase in S to SW winds and any storm potential near the end of the month won't likely show up too clearly on the guidance for a few days yet.

My weather here on Wednesday was improving all day after a wet start, and we enjoyed some nice sunshine and mild highs near 16 C by late afternoon. "Fall colours" here are quite good at present.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 2330h
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It now appears that Saturday could get quite windy as the trend on forecast models has been to upgrade the system (after downgrading it earlier this week). From the more recent guidance, I would expect to see some gusts to about 65-70 mph on the west coast around mid-day Saturday, and generally in the 40-50 mph range elsewhere, once the system develops overnight and moves past Connacht. We'll revisit this in the 0600h forecast but this last full day of "daylight saving" time may be on the breezy side.

Today has been a cloudy, rather chilly day here, feels like early winter almost at about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 23 October, 2009
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TODAY will be mostly cloudy and misty at times, with some patchy drizzle moving through central and northern areas, but steady rain developing by afternoon in the south. Winds will be rather light from a southerly direction, and highs will be near 14 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain becoming moderate to heavy at times, as it moves further north, while southerly winds increase to 25-40 mph. Some fog will develop and could become thick on higher ground in the south and southwest. Lows will be quite mild, 11-13 C in the south and west, and probably about the same by morning in the east although it could be as cool as 7 or 8 C around midnight.

SATURDAY will turn quite windy as the rain evolves into squally showers, quickly moving northeast during the morning, followed by variable skies and strong SW winds (40-60 mph in many locations, gusts to 70 possible in exposed locations). The windy weather may contain some brief sunny intervals but also passing squally showers, hail and thunder may briefly develop also. Highest temperatures will be about 15 C. The strong winds will make it feel more like 10 C. Watch out if you're planning anything prolonged outside as this front may move through rapidly and conditions could change for the worse quite rapidly too (for example, hill climbing would be very unpleasant and possibly dangerous).

SATURDAY NIGHT will continue rather windy and may become drizzly at times with lower cloud sweeping in from the west, bringing lows of about 7 C.

SUNDAY will be much improved with the remnant westerly winds stronger over Ulster than elsewhere, but generally down to 20-30 mph before turning back to the south at 10-20 mph. Some sunshine may break through extensive cloud, and any shower activity would be brief and isolated. Highs will reach 14 or 15 C.

MONDAY will have a dry start with haze and local fog especially in the eastern half of the country, with stronger southerly winds in the western half together with an increasing risk of rain. Highs will be 14-16 C.

NEXT WEEK in general looks quite mild, or even warm for late October, and winds will continue from the south at generally 15-30 mph much of the time, although some early mornings may be calm and foggy in eastern districts. The highs will continue in the mid-teens and overnight lows, while rather variable, will be mild in the west and south. Some rain is likely at times and a period of stronger SW winds is likely around the end of the week, before a gradual turn to more westerly winds around Hallowe'en and the start of November.

In my weather report, Thursday was a dry, mostly cloudy day, then it started to rain at times since sunset and light rain continues (at midnight). The high for the day was about 12 C.

Watch for updates and check some other threads in the weather section for more info on Saturday's windy weather.

glimmerman123

Dull and damp here in North Tipp at the moment but quiet mild. Quiet calm too. The calm before the storm.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 11 p.m.
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The 18z GFS model run seemed to show a slight downgrade to the potential wind speeds, but sometimes this run has less credibility than the 00z run which won't be out for another six hours yet. And by then the event will be just about ready to unfold. At the moment, the low expected to deepen near Donegal mid-day tomorrow is just a frontal wave to the southwest of Kerry and attached to a slower-moving low out near Greenland. So, this is not a weather system that is moving in already developed, but one that threatens to develop rapidly near Ireland on Saturday. Hence some uncertainty, but I will try to post a forecast before 0600 if possible.

My weather here today is dreary to say the least, it has been so dark outside that the streetlights never went off ... it has been raining fairly steadily too ... and it's about 13 C.

Sierra Oscar

Calm outside at the moment, not a puff of wind.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 24 October, 2009
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TODAY will become quite windy with morning showers or periods of rain becoming more scattered and interspersed with sunny intervals. Winds will increase to SW 30-50 mph with higher gusts in some exposed locations. Highs will reach 15 C. Further rainfalls of 3-5 mms are likely.

Watch for updates as we monitor the developing wind event; at the moment, it looks relatively moderate.

TONIGHT will continue fairly breezy (windy in the north) with low cloud scudding past, occasional drizzle, and lows near 7 or 8 C. Winds will be generally WSW 20-30 mph.

SUNDAY will become less windy especially in the southern half of the country, as a more southerly breeze develops there, and some sunshine breaks through the extensive low cloud. Highs will be 14-15 C.

MONDAY will be hazy and rather mild with only a slight chance of rain in western districts mostly. Highs will be about 15 C and winds SE 15-25 mph.

The rest of the week will remain about the same, hazy and mild in most parts of Ireland, cloudy with occasional light rain more frequently in the west. Winds will remain moderate from a SE to S direction. Eventually the wind will veer to SW and then slacken, but there may be intervals of strong winds towards the end of the week and next weekend.

See the previous post for my weather report, it has been fairly dry since sunset with a rising SW wind.

Updates on today's wind potential as needed. The stronger winds should set in about 0800 in the southwest and about 1000-1200 elsewhere.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 1130 h
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The strong winds have developed over western and south coastal counties, with some squally showers (longer periods of rain in north Galway, Mayo and eventually some other parts of the northwest). Strongest gusts should be in the 60-65 mph range there, although 70-80 could happen in one or two isolated squalls. Further east it looks like an interval of breezy, sunny conditions through mid-day, to be followed by showers and possibly a squally thundershower. Winds may eventually gust to about 40 mph in the Dublin area this afternoon. The main thing is, if you have reasonably pleasant weather now, don't count it lasting too long.

Storm 10

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Saturday, 1130 h
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The strong winds have developed over western and south coastal counties, with some squally showers (longer periods of rain in north Galway, Mayo and eventually some other parts of the northwest). Strongest gusts should be in the 60-65 mph range there, although 70-80 could happen in one or two isolated squalls. Further east it looks like an interval of breezy, sunny conditions through mid-day, to be followed by showers and possibly a squally thundershower. Winds may eventually gust to about 40 mph in the Dublin area this afternoon. The main thing is, if you have reasonably pleasant weather now, don't count it lasting too long.

You are spot on with the forecast MT,I am recording wind gusts of 60 mph in the pas hour with very heavy rain, looking at the latest sat pics there appears to be some very heavy showers off the West Coast could get a few Thunderstorms in the evening or tonight.

glimmerman123

Any early indications for Halloween M.T?

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 25 October, 2009
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TODAY will improve rapidly in the south and sunshine could be dominant by mid-day as far north as about Galway to Dublin, but the cloud left over from the departing storm will take longer to break up across the north; however, it could give way to some brief sunny intervals, although for the morning it seems locked in and some brief showers could continue in the north. The highs for the day will therefore vary from about 15 C in the south to about 12 or 13 C in the north. The northern counties will have westerly winds of about 30-40 mph lingering for a few more hours yet. But in the southern counties, they will be lighter and turning readily to the south or southeast.

TONIGHT will likely become clear in many parts and a light ground fog is likely to develop under moonlit skies (at least to midnight as the moon will set around then). Lows will be in the range of 4 to 8 C mostly.

MONDAY will be hazy, with variable amounts of cloud mostly of the higher variety, and just a slight risk of rain in the far west. Winds will be picking up to SSE 15-25 mph with higher gusts near the coasts. It will be fairly warm with highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY, this weather pattern is expected to continue, with enough wind flow at night to keep temperatures well up above freezing, possibly as high as 10 C in some parts, and warm in the daytime at least out of the breeze, probably averaging 16 or 17 C. Winds will continue south to southeast, and the winds will continue from a southerly direction at about 15 to 25 mph. From this range, we have to add that Thursday night to Saturday morning could get windier and a little stormier, otherwise, rain is likely to stay near or off the west coast and mainly affect the marine areas west of Galway.

By next weekend (Halloween is Saturday) the mild southerly flow may be breaking down to a somewhat less mild southwesterly but it should still be fairly dry, only brief showers indicated at this point, mild and about 13 C. This could all change considerably as it's six days away still.

The weather here on Saturday was gradually improving and we enjoyed a sunny afternoon with highs of about 14 C.

legendal

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

warm in the daytime at least out of the breeze, probably averaging 16 or 17 C.

Very warm for the time of year, but there have been higher temperatures than that - Dublin Airport hit 20C on October 26, 2005. IIRC the Daily Mail had a field day at the time declaring it the warmest October 26 on record.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 26 October, 2009
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TODAY will feature some hazy sunshine at times, with fairly extensive higher cloud thicker in the west where a few spits of rain could accompany it, and it will be quite mild or even warm as highs reach 16 or 17 C. Winds will be generally southeast 15-25 mph, a little stronger near the south and west coasts.

TONIGHT will continue mild with the high overcast just about thick enough to obscure the moon, but look for a lunar halo possibly; the bright planet near the moon will be Jupiter (if you can see it). Winds will continue southeast at about 20 mph and there could be some light rain at times mainly in the far west. Lows will range from 8 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see somewhat thicker cloud and a slight risk of rain in the east, probably an intermittent light rain in the west, nothing very heavy though, and winds continuing southeast at about 15-30 mph with highs of 16 C or so.

WEDNESDAY should be even nicer as the weak wave moves away and leaves a dry mixture of cloud and sunshine, with continuing moderate southerly winds and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite breezy and mild with more southerly winds, reaching near gale force at times in western marine and shoreline areas but still tolerable at 20-25 mph otherwise; highs will continue around 15 or 16 C.

SATURDAY should become somewhat cooler in more of a southwest wind flow with extensive cloud and occasional brief showers, highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY from this distance looks partly cloudy and cool, to be followed by strong south to southwest winds and rain developing on Monday (2 November by then !) ... and after that, it's looking like a colder pattern developing, although not as cold as last year's touch of snow and frost near the end of October and first of November.

Now, Sunday here was dismal, cloudy, cold, spits of rain and a chilly wind, highest temperatures about 9 or 10 C. We've lost the advantage for sure now.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 27 October, 2009
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Staying quite mild for the rest of the week ...

TODAY will be cloudy and very mild with some lingering rain near the west coast becoming more showery by mid-day; further east, only very light rain or drizzle at first, and even the chance of weak sunshine through high cloud, then watch for some isolated heavier showers or even a weak thundershower moving through the southeast mid-day to afternoon. Winds will continue mainly SSE 20-30 mph with highs 16-20 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some clear intervals, breezy and very mild with lows 8-12 C. A few more showers are possible mainly in the west.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and very mild with southerly winds 20-30 mph and slight risk of showers in the west, highs 16-19 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue much the same with similar temperatures, winds and occasional waves of rain moving north mainly offshore to the west, brushing the west coast at times. Expect highs mainly in the 15-18 C range.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, brief showers, and fresher southwest winds, highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY could feature some wind and rain in the early morning (this developing feature could intensify or disappear from the forecast charts at this range) ... but by the daytime hours it seems likely to be mostly dry again with westerly winds and highs near 12 C.

NEXT WEEK is still looking quite windy especially Tuesday, and showery or at times rainy, but with a gradual downward trend in temperatures.

Monday here was a day of frequently changing skies. We had dense fog and rain at breakfast time, clear skies and strong westerly winds at lunch time, and scattered showers with dramatic if almost inactive storm clouds drifting past at supper time. Now it is close to bed time and clear again, the half-moon and Jupiter making a nice pairing outside, high today about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 28 October, 2009
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This is getting very interesting for the night of 31 October into 1 November ...

and the following could continue to evolve.

TODAY will continue very mild, with a little more sunshine filtering through the variable cloud cover, and winds more SSW today 20-30 mph, with the risk of fast-moving showers in the far west at times (heading more north than east), highs may reach 18 or 19 C in some places, 16-17 C west and south coast.

TONIGHT will also be very mild with thickening cloud cover, some light rain developing, and SSW winds 20-30 mph. Lows will be around 13-14 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy and very mild with occasional light rain developing, SSW winds 25-35 mph, and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY will continue very mild with lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C. There may once again be some sunny intervals, and passing showers.

SATURDAY (31 Oct) will continue rather mild with intervals of cloud and sun, to be followed by late afternoon and evening stronger winds and heavy rain. We're going to have to keep a close watch on this as the trend on forecast models has been towards a strong wind event arriving just around midnight. There appears to be potential for 50-60 mph wind gusts but mostly after sunset and into early Sunday morning. Highest temperatures in the daytime would be around 15 C and the evening temperatures around 10-12 C.

SUNDAY (1 Nov) would then continue windy and turning colder, with squally showers, as SW winds become more westerly. Highs would be in the morning, near 10 C.

Monday and Tuesday of next week may see another windy event moving through with further showers or periods of rain.

By contrast, my Monday weather here was sunny, rather cool especially in the early morning with light frost, and an afternoon high near 9 or 10 C.

Stay tuned and buckle up for the wild ride ahead. Somebody post a broomstick icon if you have one.

Storm 10

Here you go :D:D

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 7 p.m.
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Mild, innit?

The Saturday (Hallowe'en) night storm is now confusing and torturing the weather models, perhaps in keeping with the occasion.

The GFS has now announced a more southerly track more like the Oct 87 "UK hurricane" storm that would not bring strong winds to Ireland but would bring a significant rainfall. I'm not convinced this track is accurate yet, as other global models are keeping the storm either through or to the west of Ireland (and not as strong as the GFS necessarily).

For now, I am just going to maintain the alert idea, that there could be a significant wind event on Saturday night (and not because of what you or I ate at the party).

More clarity may be forthcoming by the Thursday morning forecast. It fits the general pattern that there could be an intense low as this warm spell moves further east and allows the strong jet stream associated to move into the prime storm-producing zone from Biscay northwards. I would continue to expect the main effects of this storm to be felt overnight rather than during the daytime on Saturday, so if you have plans for the daylight hours, they may go off reasonably well, then the active weather might arrive in the evening or towards midnight. More as it develops ...

My weather here today is rather bland and boring, cloudy, light westerly winds, the hint of rain to come, and a normalish temperature of about 12 C.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The Saturday (Hallowe'en) night storm is now confusing and torturing the weather models, perhaps in keeping with the occasion.

The gorgeous Joan Blackburn mentioned a wet and windy weekend ahead on tonight's 9.30pm weather forecast also.

Latest ECM has the low tracking over the west once again:





UKMO model along the same lines also, but with the GFS pushing things further south, all very much to play for yet.

Redsunset

I would love to see this chart materialise.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 29 October, 2009
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Still nothing carved in stone about the Saturday night low, my forecast reflects what is most likely but it could change considerably, on a regional basis, as track is everything with this set-up.

TODAY will be cloudy with drizzle or light rain here and there but also some dry intervals, continuing very mild, winds southerly 15-30 mph and rising in the western counties to 20-45 mph later. Highs will be in the 16-18 C range.

TONIGHT will be windy and very mild with occasional rain, and winds SSE 30-50 mph in more exposed locations, otherwise 20-35 mph. Lows will only fall to about 13 or 14 C.

FRIDAY will become more variable with passing showers, some sunny intervals, and still very, very mild at about 17-19 C. Winds will now be more from the SSW direction at about 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY will continue about the same with daytime intervals of cloud and sun, a mild start (lows near 12 C), highs near 15 C with rising SE to S winds that could reach 30-50 mph by evening, and an interval of heavy rain developing probably after sunset and towards midnight. Winds could become very strong in regions to the east of the storm track overnight.

SUNDAY will turn sharply colder in strong westerly winds and squally showers that may contain some hail at times. Winds will swing around to west 30-50 mph with possible higher gusts, and stay this strong most of the day. Temperatires will drop off from morning readings near 10 C to later daytime readings near 7 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are also looking quite windy and seasonable for temperatures (range of about 5 to 11 C) with strong WSW winds developing later Monday lasting well into mid-week veering more to the northwest. There will likely be some periods of rain and passing showers with the strong winds.

Much colder air is lurking well to the north of Iceland throughout this period and edging south but it seems to be massing to head more towards Scandinavia than the British Isles; I am expecting a rather mild November with just a few brief colder intervals. I do expect some serious winter weather in December and January, some details are posted on the "Ken Ring" thread if you're interested. I will post a final winter forecast on this thread in a few days' time.

Local weather, see two posts back, but it has now started to rain here at a rather chilly 5 C. Probably snowing on the nearby mountain peaks.

TheGreenGiant

Thought one of you guys might be able to help me. I'm looking for a site that would have archived synoptic charts or detailed charts for Europe, especially Ireland. Just need a few charts for a presentation I am doing regarding last years stream of Lows in the months of July '08 and August '08.

Thanks folks! Keep the great forecasts coming M.T.

patneve

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

Thought one of you guys might be able to help me. I'm looking for a site that would have archived synoptic charts or detailed charts for Europe, especially Ireland. Just need a few charts for a presentation I am doing regarding last years stream of Lows in the months of July '08 and August '08.

Thanks folks! Keep the great forecasts coming M.T.

when i have 'weather nostalgia' i usually go to http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html and click on the 'archiv' feature present on the far right grey box at the top of the page...should work!

patneve

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

Thought one of you guys might be able to help me. I'm looking for a site that would have archived synoptic charts or detailed charts for Europe, especially Ireland. Just need a few charts for a presentation I am doing regarding last years stream of Lows in the months of July '08 and August '08.

Thanks folks! Keep the great forecasts coming M.T.

for example look at the chart from the 29th july 08...note the low pressures near ireland!

TheGreenGiant

Ah thanks. That is a great site no doubt! I got this from met office.co.uk but one thing I don't get is the 'x' on the chart. Does that mean the center of a low pressure system? Oh and also are the black lines on the chart gust fronts? Thanks

Elmo5

M.T. can I just say that you are brilliant. I read your forecasts every day and they are always more accurate than any other. Well done, looking forward to the winter forecast

patneve

GFS 12Z might be hinting at something...high pressure building over northern scandinavia and a cold pool of air heading towards Scotland! nothing to get excited about but they're nice charts

glossy

Elmo5 wrote: »

M.T. can I just say that you are brilliant. I read your forecasts every day and they are always more accurate than any other. Well done, looking forward to the winter forecast

+ 1

M.T. Cranium

The x on the weather chart may represent a past position of a moving low, or it may mark the position of a developing wave that is not yet a closed circulation. I've seen it used either way.

I truly feel that I have been somewhat lucky at times with these Irish forecasts, the realist inside says watch out, the day will come when some situation will totally bamboozle MTC and not the more experienced watchers, and as to other comparisons, frankly I see it as more of an even competition, and I am not saying this for any other reason than, that I do actually see it that way. Your weather has a lot of little subtle features that I did not perceive a year or two ago when I wasn't this concerned with it. And like I've said several times, this project has evolved into something much different from my original concept of it, and to some extent I hope it evolves back because I'm sure there is a wider pool of forecasting ability on boards than this thread would reveal to the public. A much wider pool, in fact, and as the winter approaches, I hope we get to tap into that resource (for one thing, I could use the odd day off here).

Now, this weekend storm seems to be continuing to impress the gremlins inside the GFS model more than the other big models that we use (sounds kinky, no?) ... but this is often the case, the GFS tends to be feast or famine on storm prediction, either it nails the situation before others, or it goes off on a wild goose chase and overcooks the storm by a large margin.

This current case has a long way to go yet, the system is not much more than a weak frontal wave out around Bermuda, and is not likely to develop into a moderate low until late Friday near the Azores. It's coming in on a rather juicy track for development with 20-23 C sea surface temperatures along its track until the southwest Biscay region and then still quite warm seas ahead of it to landfall, so I am concerned about wind potential regardless of what different models may be showing. But I don't want anyone to get the impression yet that this is a done deal for wind and rain on Saturday night. The windy weather from Sunday to mid-week is more of a definite thing because the jet stream is dropping south steadily and there are strong lows coming out of North America (the energy foreseen for the weather pattern near Ireland on Tuesday of next week is currently dropping heavy rain across the central U.S. and snow in parts of South Dakota).

I hope to get some clarity on this weekend storm potential on the evening or overnight model runs. With the GFS, the usual pattern is that an accurate call will often upgrade about 24-36 hours from event time. The GEM model has totally gone off this storm, but cases where it does better for Europe than the other global models are rare. The ECM continues to look moderate in its intensity forecast. This is the form horse so I have to say the chance of a more intense storm is perhaps one in three at this point.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 October, 2009
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A frontal wave today has developed into a powerful rainfall event, while the Saturday night into Sunday event may suffer some energy loss as a result. Heavy rainfalls are likely to continue in some central counties this morning, bringing localized flooding and 30-50 mms of rain.

TODAY will have a wet start especially in central counties and possibly as far east as Dublin itself, however, the centre of the heavy rain will be around Offaly, Laois, Kildare and Tipps. Another separate area of heavy rain is moving north from Clare to Galway and should reach Mayo soon. In both areas, some places could see 30-50 mms and some localized flooding, with thunder at times. Other places in between (around Lough Derg) may have much less rain unless there is further development. The southwest has already seen quite a heavy rainfall and here it should gradually taper off to lighter rain before clearing around mid-day,with varable cloud cover and strong SSW winds.

Northern counties and Ulster will see the heavy rain, possibly a bit diminished by mid-day (amounts of about 15-25 mms), moving through mostly into the early afternoon hours. Dublin and Wicklow could also miss much of the heavier rain, with amounts probably higher just to the west and northwest of the capital. Winds everywhere will pick up to SSW 30-45 mph for a while, then begin to ease to SW 20-35 mph. Highs today will vary from about 18 C in the inland southwest, to 15 or 16 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with still some chance of showers, and occasionally rather breezy but on average winds will fall off to southwest 15 to 25 mph, and lows will fall to about 10-11 C.

SATURDAY is looking changeable with some cloud, some brief showers, and some sunny intervals, together with southerly winds of about 15-30 mph. An interval of heavier rain may arrive in the south after sunset, but timing remains a bit uncertain, 10 p.m. to 3 a.m. looks most likely to bring the heavier rain. This will move through eastern counties late overnight and may be only a drizzly light rain in the west and north. Strong winds seem likely to remain just offshore to the south and southeast on the basis of latest guidance but this is not definite yet. Saturday's highs will be 12-14 C.

SUNDAY will become quite windy from the west, and temperatures will begin to fall off slowly from morning highs near 10 C towards 6 or 7 C with winds becoming WSW 30-50 mph, and showers or periods of rain, with some risk of hail and thunder embedded. There could be a particularly windy and squally period in Connacht around Sunday evening.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be windy and at times rather wet with waves of rain, showers and some brief clearing intervals. The winds will vary somewhat in direction but will be mostly from a westerly direction in the 20-40 mph range with some higher gusts. Temperatures will remain in a rather narrow range, 7-11 C mostly, and it will feel rather raw in the strong winds.

LATER NEXT WEEK it appears likely to get a bit cooler at night especially, and some further light rain will develop.

Watch for updates on both today's heavy rainfall, and Sunday morning's potential wind and rain event.

The weather here on Thursday was wet, although not excessively so, and it is slowly warming up, but rather chilly at about 7 C. Expecting much milder air to arrive later "today" with bursts of heavier rain.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Friday, 5:15 p.m.
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Rain continues to move slowly off to the northeast and once it ends there is not likely to be very much more, if any, until Saturday evening.

The Saturday night into Sunday storm event has been significantly downgraded on almost all the guidance, there would still likely be some rain with a weaker event moving through after midnight and into Sunday morning, but the track of the actual storm is now looking more like northwest France to southeast England, which would mean (shock and awe) that the lowly GEM did better than the big models with its 72h call for this event.

Now, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the storm will mount a last-minute comeback, so stay tuned. In any event, the results will be about the same beyond Sunday morning because the weaker storm will eventually deepen over the North Sea and pull in the stronger westerly winds, so the forecast situation from mid-day Sunday on is about the same as before.

Having a milder, showery day here, already up to 13 C at 1015 local time (we are still on daylight savings time here, clocks change this weekend).

More updates if I see anything out of the ordinary.