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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Sunday, 16 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Variable cloud, some passing showers mostly in the north, but also some sunny breaks, more prolonged in south and east. Highs 18 to 20 C. Moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, very mild, some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain developing in north and west towards morning. Lows 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY ... Hazy and warm, highs 18 to 22 C, increasing southerly winds, some outbreaks of light rain at first, followed by an interval of heavier rain with possible thunderstorms by evening into the overnight hours, as very strong south to southwest winds 80-120 km/hr brush parts of the southeast coast. Winds in other regions may be reduced for a time as the remnant eye of Helene pushes through the south and east. Further north and west, winds will back to northeast then northwest as the low passes, with gusts to 70 km/hr. Rainfalls may total about 25 mm in places by Tuesday morning. The forecast situation remains somewhat uncertain and any shift in track could bring larger portions of the country under the effects of stronger southerly to southwesterly wind gusts but these are currently most likely to hit around Waterford, Wexford and on higher portions of Wicklow.
TUESDAY ... After strong early morning gusts, the daytime will remain quite windy with rain tapering to showers, some brief and partial clearing in gusty westerly winds 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, then more rain and winds increasing again to southwest 70-110 km/hr by evening as another front arrives. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 17 to 19 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy with rain, heavy in the morning hours, tapering off to drizzle later, as winds veer from southwest to west 70-110 km/hr. Lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.
THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers in north, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.
OUTLOOK ... Another windy cold front is expected by Friday into early Saturday. This one was earlier expected to contain remnants of Florence but those are now timed to link up with a later disturbance that might not reach Ireland as we are now seeing a return to an earlier model theme of building high pressure near Ireland by next weekend and early the following week. That could provide a pleasant spell of warm days and cool, sometimes foggy nights. Eventually that spell might break down with a northerly incursion of colder air near the end of the month.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast with occasional drizzle, but a bit warmer than previous days at 17 C. There was some lightning without much rain about 9 p.m., hopefully that won't lead to any renewed fires (the former ones have pretty much been extinguished now by recent rain, and our air quality has improved, although visibility remains poor a lot of the time due to low cloud and occasional rain).0 -
Monday, 17 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Warm and humid, some sporadic light rain in west and north, and some hazy sunny breaks in parts of south and east, with highs reaching near 21 C in places. Winds gradually increasing south-southeast 30 to 50 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... An interval of stronger south to southwest winds gusting to 80 km/hr possible near Waterford and Wexford coasts, as disorganized remnants of Helene track northeast and merge with another weak low situated further northwest. This will bring bursts of heavier rain through south and east, with relatively lighter amounts elsewhere, maximum amounts near 20 mm. Quite mild overnight with lows 13 to 15 C.
TUESDAY ... Rather windy all day with passing showers and intervals of heavier rain returning by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C. Winds southwest about 70 to 110 km/hr.
WEDNESDAY ... Windy and wet, south to southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr, lows near 13 and highs near 17 C. About 20 mm of rain in total.
THURSDAY ... Little change as another frontal wave replaces the departing one, so after a short break a return to strong winds and moderate to heavy rain at times. Lows near 13 C and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY ... Gradually clearing and turning somewhat fresher, with some remnant drizzle or light rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.
SATURDAY ... Heavy showers at times, quite windy, highs near 17 C, turning colder late in the day.
SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, breezy, cool. Highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... About a week of more settled weather is now expected with higher pressure building up and gradually settling over Ireland. At first it may be rather cool with risk of scattered frosts at night. Later in the dry spell it will turn warmer with cloud streaming in from the southwest to affect west and north at times. Highs next week (24-28 September) may gradually rise from mid-teens to low twenties as a result.
My local weather was overcast with frequent light rain and highs near 16 C. We must be very close to setting a record low for sunshine as we normally don't get into this persistent gloom around here until late October and November.0 -
Tuesday, 18 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... A few brighter intervals this morning, then showers more widespread by afternoon, moderate southwest winds picking up gradually to reach 50 to 80 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 15 to 18 C.
TONIGHT ... Windy with occasional rain, 5 to 10 mm likely. Winds south to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows 11 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Very windy at times in north Connacht and west Ulster with rain and southwest veering westerly gales 80 to 130 km/hr. Storm force winds possible near coasts and over marine areas around Donegal Bay. Somewhat less extreme elsewhere but certainly wet and windy much of the day, rain tapering to showers by afternoon, winds SW to W 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 14 to 16 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely.
THURSDAY ... Occasional rain, heavier near south coast, more showery further north, 10 to 20 mm amounts possible. Lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C. Quite windy at times by Thursday night, west to northwest 60 to 90 km/hr.
FRIDAY ... Cold and windy with passing squally showers, winds west to northwest 70 km/hr at times, lows near 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.
SATURDAY ... Quite cold to start the day with possible frosts inland, then increasing cloud, winds gradually increasing from southwest. Lows about 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
SUNDAY ... Some guidance is showing the wind gradient becoming very strong by early Sunday morning to about mid-day with potential for gusts to 120 km/hr. This situation will need to be watched, part of the energy for the low comes from former hurricane Florence although that circulation is not fully absorbed and remains further back in the central Atlantic. At the least, it should be a windy and showery day with some clearing later, highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather cool but settled, some chance of frosts, highs 13 to 15 C early part of next week, with a gradual warming trend towards 20 C later in the week, generally dry with some sunshine each day (24-28 September), the next round of showery and windy weather then following by end of the month into early October when it looks set to turn quite chilly again.
My local weather on Monday was partly sunny with a high near 15 C.0 -
Wednesday, 19 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for very strong wind gusts in parts of west and north this morning, peak gusts of 130 km/hr could bring down trees and cause minor structural damage. Driving is not advised in these counties until the storm passes early this afternoon -- most of Connacht, west and north Ulster, Clare and some parts of Kerry, Limerick and Cork. Conditions elsewhere will be slightly less severe but some strong gusts are possible, drive with caution.
TODAY ... Becoming very windy from about 0700h on west coast and 0800h Donegal Bay into west Ulster, southwest gale to storm force winds of 80 to 130 km/hr. Very gusty with some intervals of damaging winds and some relatively calm moments, but in general the strongest winds should move through by mid-day (2-3 p.m. north Ulster). Further south, quite windy also, southwesterly winds of 70 km/hr gusting at times to 110 km/hr or higher in exposed locations, isolated wind damage possible. The heavier rain overnight will continue to push east through Ulster, east Connacht and north Leinster this morning, further amounts of 5 to 15 mm. Some partial clearing by afternoon with the strong winds becoming more moderate, highs 15 to 18 C.
TONIGHT ... Breezy, rather cool, passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, best chance of any breaks in the north, with isolated showers there, longer intervals of light rain in south, becoming heavier at times by evening. Moderate westerly winds may increase to strong northwest for a time by evening. Highs 13 to 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Cool and windy with passing showers, some with hail and thunder. Lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.
SATURDAY ... Clear and quite chilly to start the day with isolated frosts possible in northeast, becoming overcast around mid-day, strong southeast winds developing, rain setting in by mid-afternoon west and south, evening east and north. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
SUNDAY ... Very windy at times, rain or drizzle, with the low tracking through the south, winds may back to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr over much of the country and then come around to strong north to northwest as the low pulls away into south Wales and southwest England. These stronger winds could produce some gusts to 100 km/hr or higher. Temperatures rather low all day, steady around 8 to 10 C, but feeling very cold due to the wind and rain.
MONDAY ... Clearing rapidly overnight then sunny but cool during the daytime, moderate northerly winds, isolated showers near Irish Sea. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.
OUTLOOK ... Dry, with a slow warming trend to about Friday, eventually highs will recover to 17-19 C. Nights will generally be frosty except in far west and north due to more widespread low cloud there. Beyond next week, models are suggesting a cold and windy start to October.
My local weather on Tuesday was partly to mostly sunny and cool with highs near 14 C.0 -
Thursday, 20 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Intervals of light rain near south coast, becoming heavier for a time this afternoon and spreading further north, 5 to 15 mm expected. Some sunny breaks in central and northern counties, isolated showers later with the rain pushing into some central counties for part of the afternoon. Rather cool, highs only 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Becoming windy at times, west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, occasional rain ending towards morning. Lows 4 to 7 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, passing showers with some hail or thunder possible. Highs 11 to 14 C.
SATURDAY ... A clear and cold start with scattered frost possible in north Leinster, Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C. Increasing cloud from southwest during the day, rain spreading into some southwestern counties, strong east winds developing by evening. Highs only 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY ... Rain at times in at least the southern half of the country, possibly further north depending on storm track (which continues to be shown south of Cork on most guidance). Strong east to northeast winds will back to west then northwest as the low intensifies and moves away towards southern Britain. Rather chilly especially in any combination of wind and rain. Temperatures steady 8 to 12 C.
MONDAY ... Partial clearing, chilly, some scattered inland frosts, sunny intervals for the day, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, somewhat milder, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 14 to 18 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather than lasting several days, this milder spell may be quickly replaced by a rebuilding cool high with the same sequence from Thursday to about the weekend of 29th-30th. The first week to ten days of October currently appear very cool with a northerly flow, temperatures likely to be well below average in the 7 to 10 C range.
My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with afternoon high cloud, and rather cool again with highs only about 14 C.0 -
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Friday, 21 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Variable cloud, cool, passing showers with some hail or thunder possible. These have organized in two bands, one moving southeast from the midlands, and the other moving southeast from central Ulster. The trend will be towards more isolated shower activity by afternoon and general clearing by this evening. Occasional westerly wind gusts to about 80 km/hr will also tend to subside later. Highs 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with cloud massing over the south coast and southwest after midnight. Scattered light frost possible in parts of the northeast, otherwise lows about 2 to 5 C. Some light rain by early morning in southwest.
SATURDAY ... A clear and cold start with scattered frost possible in north Leinster, Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C. Increasing cloud from southwest during the day, rain spreading into some southwestern counties, strong east winds developing by evening. Highs only 10 to 13 C. The rain will then extend across the south overnight into Sunday morning with strong east winds spreading further north, temperatures steady 7 to 9 C. The autumn equinox occurs perhaps a bit later than you might expect, at about 02:56 Irish standard time Sunday 23rd (Saturday evening for anyone reading this in North America).
SUNDAY ... Rain at times in the southern half of the country during the morning hours, possibly further north depending on storm track (which still continues to be shown south of Cork on most guidance). Strong east to northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr will back to north then northwest as the low intensifies and moves away towards southern Britain. Somewhat less windy by afternoon with partial clearing from the northwest. Rather chilly especially in any (early) combination of wind and rain. Temperatures steady 8 to 12 C.
MONDAY ... Partial clearing, chilly, some scattered inland frosts, sunny intervals for the day, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Occasional moderate northwest wind gusts to about 50 km/hr.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Light winds.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, somewhat milder, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Light to moderate southwest winds increasing later in the day at least in northern counties. Light rain by evening in parts of the north.
THURSDAY ... Showers in parts of east Ulster, north Leinster, rather breezy throughout the country with intervals of cloud and sun, longer sunny breaks in southwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, slight risk of showers in east Ulster, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... The fair weather should hold through most of the weekend of 29th-30th and then a more unsettled northerly flow will bring quite cold weather for early October, highs only in the 7 to 10 C range, and sometimes quite windy with showers that could contain hail.
My local weather has settled into a rut with partly cloudy and cool conditions, a few sprinkles of rain added on Thursday, and highs near 14 C.0 -
Saturday, 22 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few brighter intervals in parts of north, with light rain spreading across the south, only 5 to 10 mm expected, and remaining mostly dry north of about Dublin to north Clare, except for some isolated showers in the far north. Rather cold, with moderate east winds by afternoon becoming somewhat stronger this evening (50 to 70 km/hr in places), and highs only 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Breezy and cool with rain heavier in south, patchy and intermittent further north with some places staying mostly dry. Lows about 7 to 9 C. Winds backing from east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr in exposed parts of east, as well as north coast. The autumn equinox occurs perhaps a bit later than you might expect, at about 02:56 Irish standard time Sunday 23rd (Saturday evening for anyone reading this in North America).
SUNDAY ... Rain at times in the southern half of the country during the morning hours, briefly heavy around southeast coast, but becoming dry in most areas by mid-morning and partial clearing with cloud mostly of mid-level or higher varieties letting some sunshine through. Despite that, rather cold with highs only 9 to 13 C and feeling colder in the breeze. Moderate northerly winds backing further to northwest by afternoon, 40 to 60 km/hr.
MONDAY ... Partial clearing, chilly, some scattered inland frosts, sunny intervals for the day, lows -1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Occasional moderate northwest wind gusts to about 50 km/hr in north but light winds in central and southern counties.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, morning frost, some isolated dense fog patches possible, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C. Light winds.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, somewhat milder after scattered frost and fog in morning, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Light to moderate southwest winds increasing later in the day at least in northern counties. Light rain from mid-day to evening in parts of the north.
THURSDAY ... Brief and light showers in parts of east Ulster, north Leinster, rather breezy throughout the country with intervals of cloud and sun, longer sunny breaks in southwest, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, more cloud with slight risk of showers in northeast Ulster, lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 14 C.
SATURDAY (29th) ... Increasing cloud, showers by evening, highs near 15 C.
SUNDAY (30th) ... Overcast, windy, showers, turning colder. Highs near 10 C.
OUTLOOK ... Some rather cold days at times in early October, mixed with intervals of wind and rain with near normal temperatures. Overall, the next two or three weeks will likely average 1 to 2 degrees below normal and this will lead to a fairly rapid advance of the autumn season with leaf fall and colour change proceeding rather steadily.
My local weather on Friday was overcast and chilly with light rain and highs only near 11 C. It was a lot warmer in eastern regions of North America, and a strong cold front passing through Ottawa led to a damaging tornado estimated at EF-3 that tracked through western suburbs and across the Ottawa River into Gatineau, Quebec. Temperatures ahead of this front were as high as 32 C.0 -
Sunday, 23 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain across parts of the south will end before mid-day and most central counties will stay dry, with some sunshine at times, cloud mostly of the mid-level variety. Further north there will be a few passing showers across much of Ulster into parts of north Leinster, amounts likely to be 1 to 3 mm at most. Moderate northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr will add some chill to the rather cool temperatures, peaking at only 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Clearing, light winds, scattered frost inland. Lows -2 to +3 C. Slight risk of fog patches in some valleys especially near rivers and lakes (which will be a lot warmer than the air, hence the saturation of cool air picking up some moisture from them).
MONDAY ... A crisp, mostly sunny autumn day with light winds and highs 11 to 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Another cold morning with frost and fog patches, then sunny for the southern and some central counties, increasing cloud across the north with patchy light rain by afternoon there. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 12 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine in south, variable cloud further north, a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near a stalled frontal boundary close to the north Ulster coast. Lows 2 to 6 C south, 6 to 10 C north, and highs generally 16 to 19 C.
THURSDAY ... Turning slightly cooler from north to south, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, but some decent sunshine likely in south. Lows about 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C, warmer in south.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by evening, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.
SUNDAY (30th) ... Overcast, breezy, a few showers and a little cooler, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather bland weather similar to the second half of the week will continue with some interruptions for a day or two from colder northerly intrusions, so overall it should be a little cooler than average and generally rather dry but with some brief moderate rain showers with frontal passages into early-mid October.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast with passing showers, and highs near 16 C.0 -
Monday, 24 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... A crisp, mostly sunny autumn day with light winds and highs 11 to 14 C. Some higher cloud will encroach from the northwest reaching parts of Connacht, west Ulster and possibly further into central counties at times, sunshine will be more continuous further south.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals in the south, a good view of the full moon (timed for 0354h), scattered frost may return in a few southern valleys, lows -1 to +3 C. Mostly cloudy further north, lows 3 to 7 C.
TUESDAY ... Another cold morning with frost and fog patches, then sunny for the southern and some central counties, increasing cloud across the north with patchy light rain by late morning afternoon there, possibly a few sprinkles of rain as far south as central counties but not much if any accumulation. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 12 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine in south, variable cloud further north, a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near a stalled frontal boundary close to the north Ulster coast. Lows 2 to 6 C south, 6 to 10 C north, and highs generally 16 to 20 C.
THURSDAY ... Turning slightly cooler from north to south, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, but some decent sunshine likely in south. Lows about 7 C and highs 14 to 20 C, warmer in south.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows near 5 C and highs near 17 C.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by evening in north, lows near 5 C and highs near 17 C.
SUNDAY (30th) ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers and a little cooler, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... Projections seem to be changing slightly towards a more prolonged settled period of weather although some of the models still allow colder air to have brief domination between spells of near average temperatures and dry weather with sunshine.
My local weather is slowly improving, as a large field of cloud and moisture over western Canada loses energy each day allowing a bit more sunshine to intrude, we saw some blue sky at times and some light showers, with highs near 18 C on Sunday.0 -
Tuesday, 25 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rather cloudy in most places for the morning hours, with sporadic light rain perhaps 3 to 5 mm in west and north, lesser or trace amounts for east and south. This weak disturbance will have pushed through all but east Ulster and north Leinster by mid-day with a gradual clearing trend and some fairly warm, hazy sunshine in places south of a Galway to Meath line, highs reaching 17 or 18 C. Further north the top temperatures may be held down by more frequent cloud to 14 or 15 C. Sometimes a little breezy with this passing system, south to southwest winds 30 to 50 km/hr, but tending to lighter winds by afternoon.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy in central and northern counties, perhaps a few remnant sprinkles of rain, lows 6 to 8 C. Clear intervals, misty or foggy in some valleys further south, lows 3 to 7 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine in south, variable cloud further north, a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near a stalled frontal boundary close to the north Ulster coast, but dry almost everywhere else for most of the day, with highs generally 16 to 20 C.
THURSDAY ... Turning slightly cooler from north to south, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, but some decent sunshine likely in south. Lows about 7 C and highs 14 to 20 C, warmer in south. As the cooler air filters in from the north, sea fog could move inland from Donegal Bay into north Connacht, reaching inland parts of Mayo, Sligo and Leitrim before dissipating. The frontal boundary will be rather vaguely defined by a band of low cloud that will tend to break up after reaching the midlands.
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, lows 2 to 5 C with a returning risk of frost in some low-lying areas, and highs 14 to 17 C.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain by evening in north, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
SUNDAY (30th) ... Partly cloudy to sunny in the south, breezy in parts of the north where a few showers could develop, turning a little cooler at least in northern counties, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... The week of 1 to 5 October is looking dry and near normal in temperature, with some risk of frost most nights, highs 12 to 15 C. The influence of high pressure will fade late in the week and into the following weekend, with more of a cold northerly influence replacing the high, and some quite cold (for mid-October) weather appears possible.
My local weather was fairly pleasant on Monday with a mixture of sun and patchy low cloud producing brief showers of drizzly light rain, highs reaching 17 C. The last of this persistent cloud should break up here on Tuesday and it's already fairly clear overnight with a good view of the full moon.0 -
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Wednesday, 26 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloud gradually dispersing after some patchy morning drizzle in parts of the west, sunny and quite warm by afternoon, highs 17 to 20 C.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, except for some low cloud and drizzle advancing into northwest after midnight. Lows 7 to 10 C.
THURSDAY ... Turning somewhat cooler in the north, intervals of low cloud and drizzle, but some sunshine by afternoon. Highs 14 to 17 C in the north and some central and western counties. Partly cloudy to sunny further south. Highs 17 to 20 C.
FRIDAY ... Some low cloud but mostly sunny and cool, morning frost and fog patches possible. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
SATURDAY ... Patchy frost and fog patches, sunshine later, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud in north, some sunshine at times in south, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... Mostly dry with cool to near seasonable temperatures for most of the week, some frosts, but highs 12 to 16 C, then slowly breaking down to moderate northerly winds around the following weekend, quite cool and becoming wet at times by mid-October, highs generally 10 to 13 C.
My local weather on Tuesday became mostly sunny and rather warm with highs near 19 C. It is clear and hazy out this evening with a very bright full moon, Mars prominent in the south (at 11 p.m. local time here).0 -
Thursday, 27 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Some hazy sunshine at times, while a weak frontal boundary will bring low cloud and patchy drizzle from north to south during the late morning (north) to afternoon (midlands), that to be followed by partial clearing again but cooler temperatures in northerly breezes 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 16 to 18 C south, 13 to 15 C north, about 15 or 16 C central.
TONIGHT ... Clearing, some mist and fog patches, and frost in valleys, lows -2 to +3 C.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool. Highs 12 to 15 C.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, some drizzle or light rain in north at times, moderate westerly winds developing 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 11 to 15 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be cool, partly cloudy days with a slight risk of brief showers in the north, moderate northwest winds, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.
OUTLOOK ... By mid-week (around 2-4 October) somewhat milder again with chance of rain in the north but hazy sunshine in the south, highs could reach 19 or 20 C briefly, then much cooler for a day or two starting around Friday 5th with gusty northwest winds and scattered rain or hail showers. That cooler turn will be followed by milder weather with increasing chances for more significant rainfalls.
My local weather was dry and mild (17 C) with mostly cloudy skies, some sunny breaks, and calm winds most of the day. We have some very nice autumn colours in this region now.0 -
Friday, 28 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, cool. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, scattered frost mostly in southern and central inland locations, lows -1 to +5 C.
SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, some drizzle or light rain in north at times, moderate westerly winds developing 30 to 50 km/hr with highs of 11 to 15 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be cool, partly cloudy days with a slight risk of brief showers in the north, moderate northwest winds, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY will be slightly milder although mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, moderate westerly winds, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with outbreaks of rain continuing in the north, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.
OUTLOOK ... Little change on Thursday, similar to start on Friday (5 October) with gusty winds and showers, turning cooler for several days and highs only 10 to 13 C by the following weekend.
My local weather on Thursday continued mostly cloudy and mild with a few sunny breaks and highs near 17 C.0 -
Saturday, 29 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Scattered frost and fog patches this morning, then sunny intervals more prolonged in southern half of the country, with increasing cloud mid-day to afternoon, some drizzle or light rain in north at times, moderate westerly winds developing 30 to 50 km/hr with highs of 11 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Overcast in most parts, occasional showers, then some clearing later, lows 2 to 5 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be cool, partly cloudy days with a slight risk of brief showers in the north, moderate northwest winds, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.
TUESDAY will be slightly milder although mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, moderate westerly winds, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with outbreaks of rain continuing in the north, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with mild temperatures, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY will start out pleasant and mild, with a gradual increase in cloud, then strong southwest winds and showers, turning colder by evening in west, overnight elsewhere. Highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... Saturday 6th of October likely to be a cool but settled day then milder by Sunday with frequent rain from late Sunday 7th to about Tuesday 9th, relatively mild in a southwest flow, followed by more settled but continued rather mild weather mid-October.
My local weather on Friday was sunny and the high reached 15 C after a nearly frosty start. We have one more fine day expected today (Saturday that is) then a change to wet and cooler weather.0 -
Sunday, 30 September, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rather cloudy with some breaks by afternoon, patchy light rain or drizzle will only leave 1 or 2 mm at most, moderate northwest breezes 30 to 50 km/hr, and highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, then widespread fog or mist developing, lows -1 to +3 C.
MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud, outbreaks of light rain by late in the day, moderate west backing to southwest winds, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TUESDAY ... Occasional light rain, moderate westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.
THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain developing, mild. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, highs near 16 C.
SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning colder, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, highs near 11 C.
OUTLOOK ... Milder again by Sunday 7th October, outbreaks of rain will continue at times on Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday with perhaps about 20 mm in total, highs near 18 C. After that, somewhat cooler and drier weather but still rather mild for mid-October (14 C), and some indications of a rather mild pattern persisting well into late October as high pressure begins to block the jet stream over Scandinavia, but with southerly breezes rather than any kind of wintry easterly component.
My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with the odd sunny break, and the high was around 15 C.0 -
Monday, 1st of October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... A few sunny intervals in east and south this morning, then generally cloudy with outbreaks of light rain moving in from northwest by afternoon, reaching all areas this evening. Only 2 to 5 mm rain likely, moderate west to northwest winds 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Light rain continuing, lows 8 to 10 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain more confined to north, blustery west winds 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 14 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, lows near 8 C and highs 16 to 19 C.
THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain becoming moderate to heavy in southeast by late in the day, then strong northerly winds overnight into Saturday morning. Lows on Friday near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with gradual clearing after some morning rain in east, highs near 12 C, winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr.
SUNDAY to TUESDAY will then become quite mild again with highs near 18 C and frequent rain that could be rather heavy at times especially in north and west. Following that wet spell, somewhat cooler but eventually becoming quite unsettled and windy at times, mild for mid-October with highs often around 15 C.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a low cloud ceiling producing occasional mist or drizzle, and chilly, highs only near 13 C.0 -
Tuesday, 2 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few outbreaks of light rain mostly confined to Ulster and north Leinster, blustery west winds 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 15 to 17 C. Some sunshine may develop by afternoon in the south.
TONIGHT ... Light rain continuing at times in the north, otherwise partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, lows 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, lows near 8 C and highs 16 to 19 C.
THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain becoming moderate to heavy in southeast by late in the day, then strong northerly winds overnight into Saturday morning. Lows on Friday near 2 C in the north, to 7 C south, and highs around 11 C north, to about 14 C in west Munster, otherwise generally about 12 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with gradual clearing after some morning rain in east, morning lows 3 to 5 C and highs 10 to 12 C, winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. A sharp frost is likely Saturday night with lows -3 to +2 C by Sunday morning.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud in north and west, sunny south and east, somewhat milder by afternoon and evening, highs near 15 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will then become quite mild again with highs near 18 C and frequent rain that could be rather heavy at times especially in north and west. Following that wet spell, somewhat cooler by mid-week but eventually becoming quite unsettled and windy at times, mild for mid-October with highs often around 15 C and potential for strong wind gusts from south to southwest with passing lows tracking near Donegal Bay from the southwest.
My local weather on Monday was overcast, drizzly and cold with the snow line visible at just 1,000 metres above sea level (or 500 metres above our location) although in the valley it was around 10 C. For the time being that's as low as the snow is going to fall for a few weeks yet, we hope.0 -
Wednesday, 3 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, highs 16 to 19 C. There could be patchy drizzle in northern counties but it should remain generally dry until this evening for most.
TONIGHT ... Light rain developing in north and west, otherwise partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm of rain is expected in some parts of the western, central and northern counties.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain more confined to south and becoming moderate to heavy in southeast by late in the day, then strong northerly winds overnight into Saturday morning. Lows on Friday near 2 C in the north, to 7 C south, and highs around 11 C north, to about 14 C in west Munster, otherwise generally about 12 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with gradual clearing after some morning rain in east, morning lows 3 to 5 C and highs 10 to 12 C, winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. A sharp frost is likely Saturday night with lows -3 to +2 C by Sunday morning.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud in north and west, sunny south and east, somewhat milder by afternoon and evening, highs near 15 C. Moderate southwest winds across northern coastal counties by late in the day, followed by rain overnight.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will then become quite mild again with highs near 18 C and frequent rain that could be rather heavy at times especially in north and west (will be watching for possible heavy amounts above 50 mm in Connacht, certainly 30 mm seems likely at this early stage, 15 to 25 mm elsewhere and possibly more also). Following that wet spell, somewhat cooler by Thursday but eventually becoming quite unsettled and windy at times, rather mild for mid-October with highs often around 15 C and potential for strong wind gusts from south to southwest with passing lows tracking near Donegal Bay from the southwest.
My local weather has been raw, wet and sometimes windy with rain most of the time and highs only 8 to 10 C. However, we are not doing as badly as southern Alberta where 35 cms of snow fell on Tuesday, leading to chaos on the roads in Calgary. We do have some snowfall accumulations on higher portions of highways in southern B.C. and widespread 10-20 cm amounts further north in central B.C., as unseasonably cold arctic air continues to feed south from the central arctic islands. This early pattern may anchor the hemispheric winter weather response, something I'm considering as part of the work towards a winter long-range forecast (hoping to have that ready within a week to ten days).0 -
Thursday, 4 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, rain developing, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm of rain is expected in some parts of the western, central and northern counties with more sustained falls expected mid-day to early evening, before that the rain may be quite light and scattered.
TONIGHT ... Rain slowly becoming more confined to southern counties, gradual clearing for parts of the north where lows may fall to 3 to 6 C, more cloud central and misty or drizzly further south with lows 6 to 9 C.
FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain mostly confined to south with a chance for a few intervals of moderate rain in southeast by late in the day (this more likely offshore now and into southern Britain for Saturday morning), then stronger northerly winds overnight into Saturday morning 40 to 60 km/hr at times. Highs around 11 C north, to about 14 C in west Munster, otherwise generally about 12 C.
SATURDAY ... Windy and rather cold with gradual clearing after some morning rain in east, morning lows 3 to 5 C and highs 10 to 12 C, winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. A sharp frost is likely Saturday night with lows -3 to +2 C by Sunday morning.
SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud in north and west, sunny south and east, somewhat milder by afternoon and evening, highs near 15 C. Moderate southwest winds across northern coastal counties by afternoon accompanied by low cloud and some outbreaks of rain but these should be confined to north Donegal, Derry and Antrim mostly until late overnight into Monday morning.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will then become quite mild again with highs near 18 C and frequent rain that could be rather heavy at times especially in north and west (will be watching for possible heavy amounts above 50 mm in Connacht, certainly 30 mm seems likely at this early stage, 15 to 25 mm elsewhere and possibly more also). By late Wednesday, an Atlantic low (ahead of Leslie) will track close to Donegal Bay and could bring strong wind gusts to the northwestern counties. The effects appear rather confined to coastal Connacht and west Ulster at this point.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Following that wet spell, there may be brief clearing but continued quite mild to warm southwest winds as remnants of Hurricane Leslie emerge from a long meandering journey in the central Atlantic and swerve to the north just to the west of Irish coastal waters, possibly this encounter will be close enough to bring a period of gale or storm force wind gusts although the main effect may be to prolong the warm spell expected and perhaps bring temperatures even a bit higher towards 20 C, then even after these strong winds retreat towards Iceland a rather mild pattern appears set to continue for some time through mid-October with more of a settled theme, possibly quite foggy at night during that phase, but highs still generally above average 14 to 17 C.
My local weather "improved" to overcast but dry with a very low snow line but still nothing falling at our elevation, and highs only 8 to 10 C. Persistent cloud at the moment is preventing frost but if it clears tomorrow then it could easily fall to -4 C overnight. Meanwhile remnants of former Hurricane Rosa from the Pacific moved into southern Arizona on Tuesday and brought flooding rainfalls as well as setting a new October rainfall record for Phoenix (of almost 60 mm). There were reports of 130 mm of rain near the Arizona border with Mexico, almost an average year's fall for those arid regions. This storm has dissipated now and is just a frontal wave moving northeast into the central plains states.0 -
Friday, 5 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, more frequent in west and north, as patchy light rain becomes mainly confined to south coast. Rather cool with highs only 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT ... Some patchy light rain may continue near the south coast, lows near 8 C, with partial clearing of skies in the north allowing lows to fall to about 3 to 6 C.
SATURDAY ... Rather windy and cold in the morning hours, gradually becoming sunny by afternoon, northerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr adding a chill to highs of only 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY ... Morning frost in south and central regions, rather overcast further north with patchy light rain brushing some coastal areas by mid-day, remaining partly cloudy to sunny further south. Not as windy, so after a frosty start with lows -2 to +4 C, feeling a bit milder for most areas by afternoon with highs 14 to 16 C.
MONDAY ... Overcast with light rain at times, possibly a bit heavier in northwest, 5 to 10 mm amounts expected, lows near 8 C and highs of 15 to 18 C. Moderate south to southwest winds developing.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue quite mild with pulses of rain affecting mostly Connacht and Ulster but occasionally spreading to Munster and Leinster too. Quite mild and breezy from south to southwest, highs near 18 C.
OUTLOOK ... Thursday to Saturday could become even warmer in a strong southerly flow, aided by remnants of Hurricane Leslie merging with other disturbances further north, and bringing some subtropical air north to allow temperatures to reach 20 C or even a bit higher in some places. Rain may brush the west coast at times but there's enough influence of distant high pressure over northern Europe to suggest a dry outcome for parts of the east. This warm spell is not likely to change drastically further on into mid-October with the same general set-up persisting well into the following week. At this point, the remnants of Leslie look fairly weak and nothing too active can be confirmed at this early stage. The other lows from a more northerly source look stronger in any case and if there are any strong winds those lows might be the main cause for them.
My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to sunny which was a nice change from recent overcast skies, but it remains quite cold with highs only around 10 C, and a frost is developing overnight.0 -
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Saturday, 6 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... A few showers will be found near Atlantic coasts and in the southeast, with most other places dry, cloudy most of the morning but with some partial clearing developing mid-day and afternoon. Rather cool with fresh north winds near coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr in exposed locations. Highs 9 to 12 C.
TONIGHT ... Generally clear and cold with frost likely in central and southern valleys, lows -2 to +4 C, somewhat more cloud in north with lows about 5 C.
SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals in southern, central and eastern counties, light winds, highs near 15 C. Increasing cloud west and north, some light rain at times near outer northwest coasts, moderate southwest winds and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy and milder, some brighter intervals in south and east where it should remain largely dry, occasional light rain will brush some parts of the coastal west and north. Moderate southwest winds, lows 8 to 10 C, and highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY ... Occasional rain still mainly confined to west and north but some heavier pulses likely near north and west Connacht coasts, otherwise variable cloud and quite mild, moderate southwest winds, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 16 to 18 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of light rain, becoming heavier as the day progresses, mild. Highs near 17 C. Strong southwest winds developing in northwest coastal regions, gusts to 80 km/hr.
OUTLOOK ... Details on timing are becoming a bit uncertain but there should be an interval of rain mid-week followed by an even warmer southerly flow towards the end of the week, but there could be some windy and eventually colder weather following on as the blocking now appears set to break down a bit faster than depicted yesterday. This outlook could continue to waver back and forth as we get clearer indications on the interplay between the jet stream and remnants of Leslie, which is no longer a hurricane but a tropical storm east of Bermuda soon heading for the Azores. Latest indications seem to be more in favour of Leslie weakening too fast to get into the storm track headed for Ireland, instead it seems likely to continue meandering around southwest of the Azores.
My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to overcast and rather chilly after some scattered frost in the area, highs only reached 8 C.0 -
Sunday, 7 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the south, patchy rain or drizzle affecting parts of the north. Moderate southwest winds will be strongest near west and north coasts (40 to 60 km/hr) and less windy conditions will be found in the inland south. Highs near 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Overcast with a few breaks in the south, occasional light rain in the north. Lows 7 to 9 C.
MONDAY ... Hazy, partly cloudy in most areas, some outbreaks of rain will brush north and west coasts of Connacht into west Ulster, some heavy bursts possible there. Highs 16 to 19 C.
TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, heavy at times, in west and north, 10 to 20 mm potential there, but still mainly dry in parts of east and south, mild. Lows near 12 C and highs 17 to 19 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, southerly breezes and very mild to warm temperatures, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C (somewhat lower in some coastal areas where low cloud may drift inland at times).
THURSDAY to SATURDAY will bring periods of strong winds and heavy rainfalls from several lows, potential for wind gusts above 80 km/hr by Friday with these, and 30 to 50 mm of rain. While remnants of Leslie are not expected to catch up with these disturbances, some models have shown some of the energy being drawn north, while others show a very weak remnant low dying out near southern Spain. In any case, the net result will be very mild, wet and windy weather with highs each day around 15 or 16 C and very mild at night (11 to 13 C).
OUTLOOK beyond that disturbed period of weather during the week of 15 to 19 October is for the mild temperatures to continue but in a less volatile pattern with mostly dry conditions, still generally a south to southwest wind flow, but not as strong, with a risk of dense fog at night, highs remaining in the 14 to 16 C range, overnight lows probably falling back a little towards 5 to 7 C.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a brisk northerly breeze and a high near 12 C. Currently clear and near freezing approaching midnight. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm appears to be forming southwest of Cuba and is heading for the east-central Gulf of Mexico.0 -
Monday, 8 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy in most areas, some outbreaks of rain will brush north and west coasts of Connacht into west Ulster, some heavy bursts possible there. Parts of north Connacht and west Ulster could see 20-30 mm. Highs 16 to 19 C. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Rain continuing in northwest, mainly dry and very mild elsewhere, breezy, lows 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, heavy at times, in west and north, 10 to 20 mm potential there, but still mainly dry in parts of east and south, mild, and highs 17 to 19 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, with intervals of cloud, southerly to southeasterly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, and very mild to warm temperatures, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C (somewhat lower in some coastal areas where low cloud may drift inland at times). Showers more isolated and most places generally dry until late in the day, rain arriving overnight (10-20 mm likely).
THURSDAY ... Rain slowly clearing east, cooler with temperatures steady 10-12 C, winds veering southwest 40-60 km/hr.
FRIDAY ... Windy with potential for gale or even storm force gusts in west and possibly extending into many other areas as well (highest risk at this early stage appears to be in Connacht), wind gusts possibly over 100 km/hr, significant rainfalls also (10-30 mm) with temperatures steady around 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... After all of that active weather, there is still some risk of a visit by much weakened remnants of Leslie by about Sunday, but only some of the guidance is showing this while other sources say Leslie will meander further down around Madeira or even Morocco, southern Spain etc. This situation won't be clarified until late this week. In any case, the general trend through next weekend and the week of 15th to 19th of October appears to be somewhat cooler and some settled intervals although still rather breezy with the odd threat of more rain.
A new uncertainty is posed by the eventual track of Michael, now a tropical storm southwest of Cuba, predicted to become a hurricane before hitting northwest Florida around Tuesday, then moving very rapidly northeast. It is not the same storm as expected in Ireland on Friday but it may be trying to catch up to that low somewhere in the Atlantic by that time, however guidance begins to scatter widely by then. Given how long Leslie has been a named storm (in two intervals) it would be ironic if Michael made it across the Atlantic first.
My local weather was pleasant although cool, with some sunshine and drifting clouds, and a high near 11 C.0 -
Tuesday, 9 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy and quite mild with frequent rain in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 30 mm potential especially in west Mayo and hilly portions of Donegal, but most other regions will have either sporadic light rain (from about Galway to east Ulster) or a mostly dry day with a few breaks in the overcast. Highs 16 to 18 C and winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Rain ending in the northwest, some clearing elsewhere, gusty south to southeast winds and very mild, lows 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sun and cloud, except rather cloudy near southwest coasts, southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr at times, warm with highs not far from 20 C except where modified by onshore wind flow to around 14 or 15 C. This warmth will extend well into the north and could be amplified by downsloping any place that has higher ground to the south or southeast.
THURSDAY ... Rain slowly crossing the country from southwest to northeast from early morning hours to mid-day, amounts fairly light in most cases (5 to 10 mm), temperatures steady around 12 C, possibly rising back to 14 or 15 C in any afternoon clearing in Munster, but otherwise staying mostly cloudy and misty.
FRIDAY ... We are somewhere between an advance watch and an advance alert situation for strong winds as guidance refuses to come into complete agreement on the track of a strong low that is expected to move northeast through Donegal Bay. More certain is that heavy rainfall will accompany the system and renew itself when a trailing wave (without strong winds) runs along a stalled frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday. So that sets the stage for this range of possible outcomes on Friday and Saturday ... Friday is likely to be windy with occasional rain and the potential for strong gusts to develop at least in Connacht and west Ulster, if not country-wide. These winds could peak anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on which guidance proves best. Rainfalls of 20 to 50 mm are possible (extending into Saturday morning), with some of the heavier falls in the south. Temperatures will be steady in the 14 to 16 C range. ... Then Saturday seems likely to see a second round of heavy rain moving northeast through Munster into the midlands and eventually Leinster and east Ulster, another 20 or 30 mm is quite likely, with moderate southerly winds (east for a time north of the track of this wave), and temperatures continuing in the same range or perhaps a bit lower in the northwest (12 to 14 C there).
The chances of strong enough winds to merit an orange alert on Friday are estimated at about 60% and for a red alert perhaps 30% (confined to some counties in Connacht and Ulster and possibly Kerry and Clare). So this is not quite a certain outcome yet. There may also be an orange alert required for rainfall and I would estimate chances of that closer to 70%.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further unsettled weather is likely to follow these significant wind and rain threats, but the latest word on Leslie seems to be a reduced risk of that storm making it to the turn (west of Portugal) in time to join the tail end of these lows, instead it seems more likely to stall around Madeira and perhaps meander for a few more days in that general area.
Hurricane Michael is steadily intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will hit northwest Florida by Wednesday, then re-emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday. After a bit of a loop or wobble near Newfoundland by Sunday, remnants of Michael may approach Ireland around Tuesday of next week, or at least some of the energy from a dissipated storm may get into the jet stream and be part of the weather pattern affecting Ireland mid-week (in about eight to ten days' time). This will keep the unsettled and rather mild theme going for a few more days and although I see indications of colder weather on charts in two weeks or so, these often back down to a more average sort of outcome but there could be the occasional settled and more pleasant day in the mix once all these features are done with their assaults.
My local weather on (a holiday) Monday here was overcast with a few spots of light rain and highs only around 9 C. We are expecting some slight warming to develop eventually, once Michael rips into the eastern North American ridge then it could be our turn to sit under a warmer supporting pattern (something that has not really happened here much since July, it was dominant from May to July). Winds have been quite light however, so we still have very little leaf fall although complete colour change, so it looks pleasant enough.0 -
Tuesday, 9 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy and quite mild with frequent rain in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 30 mm potential especially in west Mayo and hilly portions of Donegal, but most other regions will have either sporadic light rain (from about Galway to east Ulster) or a mostly dry day with a few breaks in the overcast. Highs 16 to 18 C and winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
TONIGHT ... Rain ending in the northwest, some clearing elsewhere, gusty south to southeast winds and very mild, lows 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sun and cloud, except rather cloudy near southwest coasts, southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr at times, warm with highs not far from 20 C except where modified by onshore wind flow to around 14 or 15 C. This warmth will extend well into the north and could be amplified by downsloping any place that has higher ground to the south or southeast.
THURSDAY ... Rain slowly crossing the country from southwest to northeast from early morning hours to mid-day, amounts fairly light in most cases (5 to 10 mm), temperatures steady around 12 C, possibly rising back to 14 or 15 C in any afternoon clearing in Munster, but otherwise staying mostly cloudy and misty.
FRIDAY ... We are somewhere between an advance watch and an advance alert situation for strong winds as guidance refuses to come into complete agreement on the track of a strong low that is expected to move northeast through Donegal Bay. More certain is that heavy rainfall will accompany the system and renew itself when a trailing wave (without strong winds) runs along a stalled frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday. So that sets the stage for this range of possible outcomes on Friday and Saturday ... Friday is likely to be windy with occasional rain and the potential for strong gusts to develop at least in Connacht and west Ulster, if not country-wide. These winds could peak anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on which guidance proves best. Rainfalls of 20 to 50 mm are possible (extending into Saturday morning), with some of the heavier falls in the south. Temperatures will be steady in the 14 to 16 C range. ... Then Saturday seems likely to see a second round of heavy rain moving northeast through Munster into the midlands and eventually Leinster and east Ulster, another 20 or 30 mm is quite likely, with moderate southerly winds (east for a time north of the track of this wave), and temperatures continuing in the same range or perhaps a bit lower in the northwest (12 to 14 C there).
The chances of strong enough winds to merit an orange alert on Friday are estimated at about 60% and for a red alert perhaps 30% (confined to some counties in Connacht and Ulster and possibly Kerry and Clare). So this is not quite a certain outcome yet. There may also be an orange alert required for rainfall and I would estimate chances of that closer to 70%.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further unsettled weather is likely to follow these significant wind and rain threats, but the latest word on Leslie seems to be a reduced risk of that storm making it to the turn (west of Portugal) in time to join the tail end of these lows, instead it seems more likely to stall around Madeira and perhaps meander for a few more days in that general area.
Hurricane Michael is steadily intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will hit northwest Florida by Wednesday, then re-emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday. After a bit of a loop or wobble near Newfoundland by Sunday, remnants of Michael may approach Ireland around Tuesday of next week, or at least some of the energy from a dissipated storm may get into the jet stream and be part of the weather pattern affecting Ireland mid-week (in about eight to ten days' time). This will keep the unsettled and rather mild theme going for a few more days and although I see indications of colder weather on charts in two weeks or so, these often back down to a more average sort of outcome but there could be the occasional settled and more pleasant day in the mix once all these features are done with their assaults.
My local weather on (a holiday) Monday here was overcast with a few spots of light rain and highs only around 9 C. We are expecting some slight warming to develop eventually, once Michael rips into the eastern North American ridge then it could be our turn to sit under a warmer supporting pattern (something that has not really happened here much since July, it was dominant from May to July). Winds have been quite light however, so we still have very little leaf fall although complete colour change, so it looks pleasant enough.0 -
Wednesday, 10 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
The potential windstorm event for early Friday is still very subject to uncertainty, with different weather models showing considerably different outcomes. It seems rather likely to be an alert situation in Connacht and west Munster, less certain elsewhere, and the intensity remains a question mark at this point in time. Significant rainfalls are likely over the period Thursday to Saturday also, in some cases these may be beneficial after several dry months. But there is some flooding potential especially by Saturday in the southeast. A more potent flood risk will occur in Wales however, with the worst of the rainfall amounts likely to be headed in that direction.
TODAY ... Breezy and quite warm with hazy sunshine but some cloudy intervals, winds south-southeast 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 18 to 22 C.
TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain slowly spreading into south and west, becoming rather heavy at times in a few locations. Lows 10 to 13 C.
THURSDAY ... Intermittent rain spreading further east, 10-20 mm on average, highs 13 to 15 C, then slow partial clearance to follow but likely only to bring any brighter intervals to southwest before nightfall, then becoming very windy.
THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... We remain in a watch more than an alert situation with guidance rather mixed as to how strong the winds might become at peak intensity around 0600h Friday, with a very deep low passing 150 miles west of Ireland. Peak gusts of 110 km/hr seem certain for parts of Connacht and west Munster, but these could be as strong as 140 km/hr in a worst case scenario. Then again, much of the south and east could escape with gusts to only 80 km/hr, or as high as 120 km/hr. What is complicating the forecast is that each model takes the same low and intensifies it rapidly somewhere to the west of Ireland but the details are just that much different to cause uncertainty as to whether the inevitable strong winds stay offshore, brush the outer coast, or sweep further east to envelop much of the country. In any case, the strong winds would begin to abate somewhat in the mid-day hours. Also, a band of moderate to heavy rain is likely to sweep across the country during the morning, with 15-25 mm amounts. Temperatures are most likely to be in the 14 to 16 C range. I hope to be able to clarify this uncertain (for strong winds at least) outlook later today or Thursday morning at the latest.
SATURDAY ... Another pulse of moderate to heavy rain is expected to sweep across parts of the south and east mainly, with 20-30 mm potential there, more like 5-10 mm in the northwest, and once again temperatures will be steady around 15 C. Winds could be moderately strong at times with this trailing wave, from the south ahead of a frontal boundary, east backing to northerly behind the feature.
SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers and a few heavier bursts of thundery rain possible. Highs near 14 C.
OUTLOOK ... Remnants of Hurricane Michael will likely be crossing the Atlantic on the weekend and arriving in Ireland on Monday into early Tuesday, with at least moderate winds and rainfalls. This outlook could also change closer to the time. Beyond that, a rather bland pattern develops with near normal temperatures much of the time and occasional showers but some dry days in the mix.
Hurricane Michael, now a very powerful category 4 storm, is bearing down on the north Florida coast, hopefully it will come inland somewhere south of Panama City to reduce the wind impact there although it could be a direct hit (around 1800h UTC which is near mid-day in the region). Large storm surges are likely from the landfall to about 150 miles east and 30 miles westward (northerly winds further west will drive the water away from the coast). The storm will accelerate through the inland southeast U.S. becoming only a tropical storm fairly soon after landfall, then re-emerge into the Atlantic passing south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday into Saturday. From there, remnants will merge with another low from Ontario moving east in the jet stream, and the combined result will arrive in Ireland around Monday evening, nothing too extreme is depicted at this early stage (peak gusts around 90 km/hr, rainfalls 10-20 mm). So if you see Michael doing damage on the news and hear that it's coming to Ireland, don't be all that worried.
My local weather has been very bland recently to the point where I hardly notice it given all this other commotion, a calm day on Tuesday with a high near 12 C and mostly cloudy skies. We do have bears wandering the streets at this time of year (they are getting ready to hibernate so it's not quite as placid as you might have thought from that weather description).0 -
Thursday, 11 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Intervals of rain will continue to move steadily northeastward, bringing about 10 mm on average, with a gradual clearance to follow. This will likely proceed rather slowly and bring some afternoon sunny breaks to Munster and a few parts of Connacht and Leinster. Moderate southerly winds veering southwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr, with stronger south winds developing by evening on the west and southwest coasts. Highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT ... Very windy especially near south and west coasts, where gusts to 120 km/hr are possible, otherwise 50 to 80 km/hr generally, with rain sweeping in again, becoming rather heavy at times. Lows 11 to 13 C.
FRIDAY ... The strong winds will likely ease somewhat by later morning, settling back to 50 to 80 km/hr on coasts and 40 to 60 km/hr elsewhere. The band of rain will continue a slow eastward motion with 15-25 mm amounts likely before Friday evening. Highs 14 to 16 C.
SATURDAY ... Renewed moderate to heavy rain will move into the south and up the east coast, with further 15-30 mm amounts, some spot flooding in the southeast. Not as much rain is expected in west and north with some dry intervals. Winds generally light to moderate southerly with the rain, easterly in some parts of the north and west, backing to northerly late Saturday there. Temperatures steady 11 to 15 C, mildest in the southeast.
SUNDAY ... Some brighter intervals, fresh westerly winds at times, isolated showers some becoming thundery. Lows near 10 C and highs about 14 C.
MONDAY ... Some remnants of former hurricane Michael will interact with a frontal trough, but most of the energy could be dissipated well to the south of Munster according to much of the current guidance. The result will be a breezy but not overly windy day with some rain at times, highs near 13 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A westerly flow will follow with near normal temperatures and frequent rainfalls, sometimes rather heavy (Connacht around Thursday is set to receive about 30 mm or more, for example). Highs during most of next week will be 12 to 14 C, and little if any chance of frosts.
Michael went on a rampage through parts of northern Florida into southern Georgia during Wednesday, and produced severe wind and storm surge damage near and south of Panama City, FL. It has already been downgraded to a tropical storm approaching South Carolina, and will continue on towards southeast Virginia all day and overnight, then will move past Nova Scotia on Friday and Newfoundland on Saturday. Most guidance then shows the remnant low (not overly strong at that point) heading quickly east at around 45 degrees north and some of the guidance brings the low into northwest Spain eventually. Remnants of Leslie meanwhile could be almost anywhere between Portugal and the Azores by about that time.
My local weather continued rather bland with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 12 C.0 -
Friday, 12 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Windy for a few more hours (southerly 70 to 110 km/hr, a few gusts to 130 km/hr on outer west coast), then easing to more moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr by mid-day. Scattered showers this morning, followed by a general but rather brief clearance before cloud increases again from the south to be followed by rain, heavy at times in the southeast by late afternoon. Highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain, heavy at times, continuing in the south and east, some dry intervals in central counties, light rain near the west coast. A few locations could see 30 mm around Wexford and south Wicklow. Lows 11 to 13 C.
SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, some mist or fog developing, further outbreaks of rain, generally about 10 mm additional. Highs 14 to 16 C.
SUNDAY ... Early morning rain ending around dawn, then partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY ... Some early sunshine then increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening. Remnants of Michael may be involved, or may pass to the south before a trailing front reaches Ireland. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, highs near 12 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, heavy rain expected again around Thursday into Friday. Temperatures staying near or slightly above mid-October normals. Highs generally around 14 C. Frost is likely to be infrequent.
My local weather on Thursday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals and cool, the high reaching 12 C.0 -
Saturday, 13 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Rain will continue for most of the day in much of the country but there are some parts of the north midlands that could have less in total being in between two bands of rainfall; the heavier of the two will slide northeast across east Munster into Leinster and bring 15-30 mm amounts, while the western band will bring 10-20 mm to parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. It will remain overcast and sometimes rather foggy or misty, with temperatures steady in the 13 to 15 C range for most.
TONIGHT ... Some further rain as winds turn more northerly for a time, temperatures falling off to the 7 to 9 C range.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) with isolated showers, some with hail or thunder. These showers will be more widespread in the north and west. Highs 14 to 16 C.
MONDAY ... Some sunshine after a clear and cool overnight with morning lows 3 to 7 C. Increasing cloud by mid-day and light rain possible by evening in west and south. Highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Overcast, showers or intervals of rain, turning cooler, temperatures steady overnight near 10 C then falling off to near 8 C later. Brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.
THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, rain by late in the day, highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, windy, highs near 13 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A rather unsettled pattern although nothing too active for this time of year, with near or slightly above normal temperatures that will often be in the 13 to 15 C range by day.
I have been working on a winter outlook. Early indications suggest it could be quite a cold winter but I think it would be prudent to set late November as a check-in time for any later revisions and a better idea of the details. This will give me a chance to check some developing guidelines for what I suspect may be developing. In any case, I don't expect this colder regime to make much of a showing before late November at the earliest. So the best way to put this is, potential for a cold winter, waiting to see if trends develop as expected that will give better confidence in that rather unusual outlook (unusual for me anyway, I guess it is the annual event for the tabloids).
Hurricane update -- remnants of Michael (already extra-tropical) are racing past Newfoundland overnight and still appear destined to swerve far enough south to miss Ireland almost completely other than some higher cloud that might be visible from south coast Monday morning. In fact the low will dissipate almost completely before hitting land anywhere in Europe according to most current guidance. Leslie, meanwhile, has finally chosen a path to follow, and that appears to be directly east into Portugal tonight, and Spain by Sunday. The effects may be quite limited in areal extent but some place on the coast could see wind gusts to 100 km/hr, models disagree where that might be.
My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with showers that stayed mostly over higher peaks around us here, so only a trace of rain at our location, but the first rain in a week. The high was about 12 C. We are looking forward to several warmer days starting Sunday.0 -
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Sunday, 14 October, 2018
Forecasts for Ireland
TODAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the south and east, isolated showers developing west and north, highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear and rather cool in most areas, slight chance of a brief shower in parts of the west. Lows 2 to 6 C.
MONDAY ... Partly to mostly sunny with increasing cloud by mid-day and light rain possible by evening in west and south. Highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Overcast, showers or intervals of rain, turning cooler in stages, temperatures steady overnight 10 to 14 C, steady for a while in the morning then turning cooler, falling off to near 8 C later. Brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.
THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, some sunshine at first then overcast with rain by late in the day, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, windy, highs near 13 C.
OUTLOOK ... Rather mild next weekend with moderate southwest winds, showers later by Sunday afternoon or evening, turning somewhat cooler for the first part of the following week but the general trend will stay near normal for time of year, longer term outlook towards end of the month looking rather unsettled with more frequent rain returning.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals and a bit warmer than recently with highs near 15 C.0
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