Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy showers will continue to push south into the southeastern counties later this morning, gradually ending over central Leinster after a beneficial 10-15 mm has fallen. Some western counties may not see much if any rain but isolated showers are possible. Winds will veer to northwest 30-50 km/hr with a gradual clearing trend spreading south, although not reaching the southeast until evening. Rather warm and humid once the rain ends and partial clearing sets in, highs 19 to 23 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty, patches of low cloud, warm and humid with lows 11 to 15 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY ... Both days rather warm and humid with a mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, highs 19 to 23 C north, and 23 to 27 inland south, somewhat cooler near coasts. Sunday morning lows will be around 15 C.

MONDAY ... Passing showers, risk of a brief thunderstorm, cooler by afternoon in west and north, highs near 20 C, but staying quite warm and humid in the southeast (22 to 25 C) cooling down by evening. About 5-10 mm rain potential, may be somewhat hit or miss.

OUTLOOK ... Model uncertainty is rather high but there are signs of some occasional significant rainfalls towards the end of the week, after a few partly cloudy to sunny days, and temperatures are likely to remain rather warm in the low to mid 20s at times.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny, very warm and humid with highs near 31 C. We are expecting a dramatic cooling trend late Friday into Saturday and an eruption of heavy storms as a result, although the guidance looks like the worst of these will be to our northwest before the front accelerates overnight. Anyway, it will be a relief to have a cooler day by Saturday for the start of our time away; getting ready to hand over the keys to the castle to "sryanbruen" who will take over operations on the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Warm and humid with some hazy sunshine at times, also some intervals of cloud with mist and drizzle likely in parts of the west and north more frequently. Highs 19 to 23 C for most, 23 to 26 C possible where sunny intervals are more frequent.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy, lows 13 to 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks in south and east mostly, drizzle and mist more common in west and north, warm and humid, highs about 19 to 22 C except around 24 C where sun breaks through in afternoon.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud with passing showers and slight chance of a thunderstorm, about 5 to 10 mm rainfall potential in some west-central counties, highs near 21 C west to 24 C east.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cooler, highs near 18 C. Passing showers but also some sunny intervals.

OUTLOOK ... Rather warm for the rest of the week, some intervals of light or even moderate rain possible, highs mainly in the 21 to 24 C range. Nights will be quite muggy and lows seldom below 12 C.

My local weather on Friday became quite windy and skies were partly cloudy, showers developing just to our west and north but holding off there for the time being. High was about 22 C, much fresher now (14 C) with clouds scudding across the sky, good views at times of half moon near Jupiter.

Well, I am now signing off for an extended vacation and sryanbruen will be along to provide forecasts for the next month or so. Thanks to him for volunteering his services. I hope you all have a very enjoyable (rest of) summer.

highdef

Very off topic but I wish you all the best for your very long vacation. I'm sure everyone will agree when I say that you're very welcome to post any photos or videos of your travels here.



Mod Note: Just to remind people we need to keep this thread free of chat or it will get clogged up.

Thanks.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks folks, I will try to get some good weather and scenery shots and post them up on the forum.

It is 0700h here and we are just getting ready to entice the cat into her carrier (she's not going on the trip but to a friend's house). Then we can hit the road as most of our camping stuff is at the next destination (Vancouver) where we have plans for the next three days of family visit then hitting the road south. So there won't likely be any interesting photos until maybe early August by which time we should be in the Utah high desert region.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 22 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Mostly cloudy and dry for the most part. Some scattered outbreaks of rain likely in the thickest of the cloud in parts of the northwest and midlands. Best of any sunshine will be along southern coastlines much like yesterday but sunny spells will also occur in some other regions like the east or parts of the midlands. Light southwesterly to westerly breezes meaning quite a warm day especially in the southeast. Temperatures ranging from 18 or 19c in the northwest to 25 or 26c in inland regions of the southeast.

TONIGHT ..... Staying fairly quiet with dry and cloudy conditions. Temperatures holding up in the mid teens.

MONDAY ..... Band of drizzle or light rain pushing eastwards through the day but this will be weak in nature and won't bring more than 1-5mm for the most part, weakening further as it reaches the south and east. Mostly cloudy and dry otherwise with mild westerly breezes giving away to temperatures ranging from 19-21c for most places but up to 22 or 23c in the southeast.

TUESDAY ..... Mostly cloudy and dry with well isolated showery outbreaks of rain occurring at times. Best chances of any sunshine in the familiar sunny southeast corner where temperatures will again reach up to 22c but more generally 18 to 20c.

WEDNESDAY ..... Eastern regions will stay dry for much of the day but cloudy. Rain will gather its pace from the Atlantic and bring some rain across the large majority of the country through the evening and night. Rainfall intensity on this rain band is uncertain as some models show up to 4-8mm whilst others show it barely dropping 1mm for many. Heaviest of the rain will be in the southwest. Ahead of the rain, temperatures will be in the low 20s but out west, it'll only be 17 or 18c.

THURSDAY ..... The rain will clear western regions by the morning but may linger on in the east for a time producing several millimetres but again the intensity is uncertain at this stage. Behind the front, skies will finally brighten up for quite a large area but fresher with temperatures widely below 20c.

FRIDAY ..... Mostly sunny with potential scattered showers during the day. Temperatures mostly in the 16-19c range with the small chance of 20 or 21c in the best of the sunshine towards the south and east.

OUTLOOK ..... Whilst it seems parts of England could get some very warm or even hot weather for the end of July and into the start of August, it looks as though that Ireland's weather will be dominated by the Atlantic. However, I am not expecting a washout nor a dramatic cool down. Temperatures will be fairly warm for the most part but not far from average with some rain from time to time. This is only based on current guidance and can all change like that :fingersnap:.

sryanbruen

Monday, 23 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Light rain or drizzle pushing eastwards through the early part of the day but not clearing the east until near nightfall. The rain may pep up for a time than originally expected near the east producing 2-5mm through the late afternoon and into the evening before weakening and pushing into Britain. A clearance may follow the light rain in the west. Mostly cloudy but staying warm and humid with maxima ranging from 18c in the northwest to 23-25c in the south and east, particularly inland regions.

TONIGHT ..... Becoming dry almost everywhere with skies clearing in light westerly breezes. Fresher than recent nights but still quite warm for some places with minimum temperatures between 11c in the west to 15 or 16c in the southeast.

TUESDAY ..... Isolated showers over the country but there won't be many at all leaving the country in a dry but mostly cloudy day. There will be sunny spells from time to time and fresher than recent days; for a time anyway. Later winds will veer from a westerly to a southerly meaning humidity will rise. Maximum temperatures ranging from 18c in the northwest to 22 or 23c in the southeast.

WEDNESDAY ..... Some sunny spells are possible in south and east regions but in general, a cloudy and humid day with moderate southerly breezes bringing temperatures mostly into the 20s though Atlantic regions could struggle in the high teens close to an area of low pressure. The rain seems to have been delayed now to reach the west by Wednesday night rather than the morning into the afternoon.

THURSDAY ..... The band of rain pushes eastwards through the morning into the afternoon clearing the east by the late evening. The likely totals for it to produce are generally under 8mm but still some uncertainty on this. The latest update of models does pep up it somewhat as it runs into the heat over the east of the country in the humid southerly breezes. There's a small chance of some convection forming to the north midlands and the northeast as a result but this is an outside chance at this stage. Sunny spells developing once the rain clears. Maximum temperatures may even reach 23 or 24c in the east but more generally 18 to 21c.

FRIDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers. Fresher than preceding days with winds veering back to a westerly bringing temperatures back down to under 20c for many but could still reach 20 or 21c in the sunshine to the south and east.

OUTLOOK ..... It's quite a benign scene with not a lot going on with the weather compared to much of 2018, fairly warm temperatures but despite the Atlantic influence, rainfall is staying well below average over Ireland though some signals of wetter weather perhaps later in the weekend into early next week especially out to the west.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 24 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Mostly dry and cloudy with a few sunny spells from time to time scattered around the country. A few isolated showers here and there also but mainly in the west. Best chance of sunshine by the afternoon around southern and southeastern regions. Fresher than previous days with temperatures mostly in the 18 to 22c range in light southwesterly breezes.

TONIGHT ..... Winds start to veer to the south and at the same time, humidity rises. Staying dry with only small chances of patchy rain or drizzle out to the west. Minimum temperatures getting down into single figures of 8 or 9c for quite a large portion of the country through the midlands whilst 10-13c around coastal regions.

WEDNESDAY ..... Overcast out to the west with some drizzle possible. Chance of sunny spells elsewhere but the main thing of the day is that it will feel noticeably more humid than today in southerly breezes dragging temperatures up to 24 or 25c possibly in the south and east whilst more like 17-19c through much of the west in the cloud and drizzle. Becoming windy overnight.

THURSDAY ..... The rain continues to be delayed and now it looks like reaching the west by Thursday morning into the afternoon than Wednesday night. Remaining dry elsewhere for most of the day but the rain should reach all by nightfall. Hazy sunshine and fresh southerly winds will make Thursday a very warm day with temperatures generally ranging from 20 to 26c but there's the possibility of higher up to 27 or 28c in the east if the rain is delayed as it's shown here on the latest guidance. It'll be very humid at the same time.

FRIDAY ..... Rain clearing from the east during the morning followed by a window of clearer and fresher conditions but showers following on later. Maximum temperatures back down to near average between 17 to 21c.

SATURDAY ..... Mostly dry with sunny spells but scattered showers pushing across the country from the Atlantic before a more general area of persistent rain pushes in overnight into Sunday. Quite a cool day with temperatures only between 16 to 19c generally - any sunshine could make 20 or 21c a possibility in the south and east.

OUTLOOK ..... The outlook remains changeable with bands of rain from time to time in from the Atlantic and temperatures not far from average for the time of year. Some model output has just appeared on high pressure building again for Ireland in early August. For now, I see this as a limited possibility until we start to see trends and the expected outcome I see is a changeable pattern with cooler and warmer days, wetter and drier days. Sunday into early next week could get pretty wet for a time especially out west.

sryanbruen

Wednesday, 25 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Fresh southerly winds giving off to a warm and humid day over Ireland. Mix of cloud and sunny spells with the best of the sunshine in the south and east where it will also be warmest. Some showers of light rain or drizzle in the northwest. Temperatures will range from 18c out west but up to 25 or 26c in the south and east.

TONIGHT ..... Staying mostly dry but humid with minimum temperatures not getting much below the mid-teens. Winds will continue to freshen reaching strong levels by dawn on Thursday out to western regions.

THURSDAY ..... Rain will push in from the Atlantic to mainly affect the southwest with this rain extending to the east by nightfall but mostly places should be dry through the day. Very warm day expected with maximum temperatures reaching up to 27 or 28c in the east whilst more sensible values of 18 to 23c out west. It will be a humid day too but the southerly winds will be strong. The rain will come in heavy bursts in places overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY ..... The rain will clear the east around dawn and leave a window of clearer and fresher conditions before showery rain pushes in from the Atlantic but eastern regions will stay dry throughout much of the day. Southerly winds lighter somewhat with maximum temperatures around 17 to 20c, nearly 10c down on Thursday for some.

SATURDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers with some of these merging into quite heavy outbreaks of rain at times in the north and west. Winds will freshen again to strong southwesterlies. More general band of rain pushing in Saturday night. Maxima for the day around 16 to 19c generally but 20 or 21c in any sunshine in the south and east.

SUNDAY ..... Rain clearing eastwards to leave a blustery day of sunshine and scattered showers.

OUTLOOK ..... Some further showers or longer spells of rain early next week but the likely scenario is for high pressure to build for at least a short period of time by mid-week and with this, temperatures start to rise again. We'll see if this turns into a more intense ridge and it links up to the Scandinavia High to form one massive block of high pressure that would be difficult to move - not out of the question.

August really is shaping up to be a mystery month with divisions on precipitation signals but at least the large majority of signals are for warmer than average conditions though not exceptionally so for Ireland.

sryanbruen

Thursday, 26 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Much of the country should stay dry for a large part of the day with sunny spells but a band of rain will push eastwards as time passes which would spread to eastern regions by later today. Moderate to strong southerly winds pumping up some very warm air with 27c being a possibility in localised spots of northern Leinster whilst 22-26c more generally and 18-21c in the cloud and rain out west.

TONIGHT ..... The rain will have reached eastern regions and by dawn on Friday, rainfall accumulations expected to be up to 10-20mm over parts of the northwest with localised areas exceeding this threshold but no more than 5mm for eastern regions though some models want to pep up the rain for a time before it crosses the Irish Sea. Hopefully places get some much needed rain. Fairly mild night with temperatures not getting much below the low to mid-teens.

FRIDAY ..... Light rain by that point clearing the east during the morning and sunny spells will develop for Ireland for a time. However, showery rain pushes into the west by midday and it is likely to produce 5-15mm for the west and midlands before it dissipates into thin air as it reaches the east coast with nothing left on it by the evening. Moderate southwesterly winds bringing fresher air with maxima in the 17 to 22c range, coolest in the northwest whilst warmest over the midlands, south and east where the sun shines.

SATURDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers merging to longer spells of rain in the north of Ireland. In blustery southwesterly winds, it will almost feel autumnal with maxima only at best in the mid-teens for most parts of the country but could reach 20c in some southeastern regions sheltered by the wind and in the sun.

SUNDAY ..... Rain pushing up from the south and ascending northwards during the morning. The rain is likely to be heavy for some but certainty will increase as the days go on. As it clears, temperatures rise back up significantly behind the rain with maxima ranging from 18 to 24c. But it may not feel this way with how windy it's going to be, perhaps unseasonably windy.

MONDAY ..... As the winds veer back to a westerly, temperatures go down again. Not likely to be as cool as Saturday right now but temperatures likely to range within 17 to 21c. Further rain pushes in for Monday but the main general area of heavy rain possibly just to the north.

OUTLOOK ..... Unlike what the signals yesterday showed, the high pressure has been delayed with more rain likely to occur for a time after Monday. However, high pressure starts ascending from the south mid-week to late next week bringing up temperatures a lot. Still a bit off but we've been seeing this consistently on the models as of recently. If this were to occur, we'd be talking temperatures back in the mid to high 20s and dry weather occurring yet again which will not be good for the country. Until then, the weather is very changeable with numerous days of showery rain but equally, sunny spells to enjoy and temperatures near seasonal average for most of the time.

On Friday night, Ireland will be treated to a lunar eclipse and blood moon phenomena but currently the weather is not looking particularly favourable for it with a lot of cloud over the country generally from the mid-west onwards. Some showery outbreaks of rain also likely to occur in much of the cloud over the eastern half of the country.

sryanbruen

Friday, 27 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Dry and cloudy to start across much of Ireland with some sunny spells developing for parts of the east before heavy showery rain pushes in from the west during the morning which will extend eastwards throughout the day. Areas prone to the heaviest rainfall are southern and southwestern regions from Kerry to Waterford and also a line from Offaly to Donegal. In these areas, rainfall totals could exceed 20mm and accumulate up to 35mm, that's how heavy this showery rain could potentially be. Key word is could because showers can be localised. The showers look to be fairly heavy in the east too especially later on but fizzling out in the northeast. Southwesterly winds lighter today but cooler with temperatures chiefly in the 17 to 21c range.

UPDATED WARNING from Met Éireann:

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Cork, Limerick and Tipperary

Heavy rain in places may lead to rainfall accumulations of 25-40mm.

Issued: Friday 27 July 2018 15:00

Updated: Friday 27 July 2018 15:00

Valid from Friday 27 July 2018 16:00 to Saturday 28 July 2018 06:00

TONIGHT ..... Further showers and mostly cloudy conditions over much of the country with a particular emphasis on the north and east. Weather still not looking very favourable for the lunar eclipse and blood moon unfortunately here whilst there is the chance of clear spells developing out west and southwest so you may get a better prospect in those parts. Winds veering westerly and starting to freshen. You will likely feel a noticeable chill in the air into Saturday with minimum temperatures of 8-12c.

SATURDAY ..... Strong southwesterly winds will give off to an autumnal feel to the day with maximum temperatures struggling in the mid-teens for most of Ireland in sunshine and fairly widespread showers. Quite a contrast than of late. Heavy rain will push in Saturday night from the south after the showers clear bringing several hours of quite persistent rain for the east into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY ..... Heavy rain clears early in the morning and showers will develop through the day rather than persistent rain with sunny intervals inbetween. Warmer than Saturday with maxima exceeding 20c for quite a few places away from the north and northwest. However, it may not feel that way with quite a brisk southwesterly wind.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ..... Largely showery days with temperatures close to average for the time of year. Southwesterly winds will be the prevailing wind direction so rather typical Ireland weather.

OUTLOOK ..... Confidence continues to grow on the suggested high pressure for later next week after Wednesday's showers clear. The alignment of the high is vital to what temperatures we will experience. If it's over top of us, the heat will build day by day. If it's just to the northeast of us, it will draw in a hot easterly flow. If it's just to the west of us, it will bring in a north to northwesterly wind which would be very cool but dry. The most likely scenario at this moment is for the high to build over top of the country and stick around for at least several days. Plenty of time to change. It's all up for grabs as they say.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 28 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Outbreaks of rain this morning will struggle to clear from northern regions through much of the period into the afternoon. Sunny spells and scattered showers following on from the rain. Southwesterly winds are unseasonably strong with it feeling more like the middle of Autumn than the heart of Summer. Temperatures in the mid-teens at best and not rising much further.

TONIGHT ..... Rain will push up from the Bay of Biscay and just about affect eastern regions but likely to be dry across most parts as the rain will generally be in Britain. Winds continuing to be fairly gusty and it will be quite a cool night with temperatures widely into the single figures.

SUNDAY ..... Any rain near the east will clear and leave brighter spells behind along with winds easing as the leading edge of the strong winds gets pushed into Britain. Some heavy showers occurring in the west and southwest later. Temperatures up on Saturday's values getting into the high teens and touching 20 or 21c in the sunshine to the south and east before the showers arrive. Some rain is likely again on Sunday night into Monday morning.

MONDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers spreading eastwards in fairly light to moderate southwesterly breezes. Temperatures around where they should be for the time of year in the high teens.

TUESDAY ..... Starting off fair and staying mainly dry for the east but two bands of showery rain will try to push across the country, one from the northwest and one from the Bay of Biscay. The Bay of Biscay band looks to be hit or miss with a few showers at most in the southeast whilst the northwest band looks to be a longer spell of mainly light rain. Temperatures again in the high teens but chance of hitting 20 or 21c.

WEDNESDAY ..... Staying dry for most of the day but some rain will push eastwards during the evening and into the night with temperatures at this stage more widely getting up to 20-22c.

OUTLOOK ..... After Wednesday's showery rain is through, high pressure is likely to ascend from the south and going by current guidance, any time this high tries to weaken, another just appears. If that's going to be the case then basically much of our Summer is looking to rinse and repeat after this autumnal spell. Details to be revealed on the exact temperatures to expect from the high pressure, current guidance suggests mostly warm (into the low-mid 20s) and the odd time hot.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 29 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Rain will clear from the east through the morning and brighter conditions with scattered showers will push in from the west. Milder than Saturday with temperatures chiefly in the high teens and touching 20c in the southeast. Winds initially from the northwest but veering southwesterly.

TONIGHT ..... Similarly to last night, a band of rain will arrive but this time from the west so not dragging up relatively warmer air as Sunday's rain band did. It will give off to some heavy bursts at times. Mainly clear skies before this rain arrives to all parts by the morning. Minimum temperatures dropping to 9-12c.

MONDAY ..... The rain will clear during the morning like Sunday with sunshine and scattered showers following on from it. Some of these showers will turn heavy in the north and west producing several mm during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures fairly close for the time of year in around the mid to high teens in moderate southwesterly winds.

TUESDAY ..... Looks like southeastern regions now will escape the little band of showery rain that could have pushed up from the Bay of Biscay. However, heavy showery rain will push into the north and west with well scattered showers elsewhere. Southwesterly winds freshening with temperatures in the 16-20c range.

WEDNESDAY ..... Showery rain pushes northeastwards with sunny spells either side of this band. Winds veering to a southerly introducing warmer air again with temperatures going back up to the 18-21c range.

THURSDAY ..... Scattered showers for a time but mostly warm with sunny spells occurring. Temperatures again increasing day by day with Thursday's values now in the 18-23c range possibly.

FRIDAY ..... Outside chance of isolated showers but generally, high pressure is looking to build in over Ireland bringing drier and warmer conditions on the whole. Temperatures likely in the 19-24c range by that stage, continuing to increase during the weekend.

OUTLOOK ..... The arrival of high pressure is still on from later this week onwards and is likely to stay for at least a few days up to Tuesday 7th August. Details are still to be revealed on just how warm it's going to get with this high pressure along with the persistence of it. For now, this could become quite a blocking feature and stay with us for quite a while but only based off of current guidance.

The Atlantic is cooling back down again in the main development region for hurricanes. This means that the chances of hurricanes forming during August 2018 is decreasing. I've found that historically quiet Augusts for hurricanes don't matter much for the prospects of our weather (it should be noted that August 1995 was an active month for tropical cyclones) but in this setup, it could play a major role on whether the jet stream will power up again or not. This is the time of year, along with September, when usually hurricanes are at their highest frequency of occurring and most severe so normally, this can make forecasting very tricky as the circulation in the Atlantic is messed up by these hurricanes. However, with a quiet August for hurricanes, this could prolong the dry and warmer weather conditions. Nature will speak for itself on where we will go.

One problem with the high pressure prolonging I see is the fact that a lot of warmth has been sent up to the Arctic this weekend which promotes northern blocking up there. This in turn would force the jet stream southwards over us bringing depression after depression and Autumn certainly setting in early.

sryanbruen

Monday, 30 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Rain will clear this morning leaving sunny intervals across the country but heavy scattered showers will spread from the Atlantic and become widespread with a chance of a thunder mixed in with these showers. Moderate southwesterly winds giving off to temperatures in the 15-19c range.

TONIGHT ..... Skies becoming clear as any showers will retreat to the west but cloud will increase as some further showers merging into longer spells of rain push in off the Atlantic to affect the west during the early morning. Temperatures getting down to the 9-11c range in moderate southwesterly winds.

TUESDAY ..... Winds will freshen from the southwest with heavy showery rain in the west and north during the first part of the day. This showery rain will ease off to scattered showers during the afternoon and evening. Varying between sunny spells and cloud with the chance of a few showers elsewhere. Temperatures rather up on today's values in the 16-21c range.

WEDNESDAY ..... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of showery rain spreading from the west which could be persistent in the west and southwest. Temperatures continue to rise in the 18-21c range.

THURSDAY ..... Some showers at first; sometimes heavy, will clear as the day goes on with high pressure attempting to ridge in from the southeast giving off to gradually sunnier conditions. Maximum temperatures in the 18-23c range.

FRIDAY ..... High pressure well and truly ridges in giving off to dry and sunny conditions with temperatures further rising. Maximum temperatures by this stage generally into the low 20s.

SATURDAY ..... Becoming very warm with dry and sunny conditions expected. Maximum temperatures ranging from 19-24c; coolest in the east this time.

OUTLOOK ..... Besides the outside chance of showers, high pressure is looking to be around for a few days producing very warm conditions, especially out west going by current guidance, and a lot of dry, sunny weather. Still uncertainty on these details and if this pattern will last though.

By the end of the weekend, temperatures could be reaching the high 20s out west before the warmest conditions traverse to southeastern regions.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 31 July, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Gusty southwesterly winds for many, particularly along western regions, but more moderate to the east. Outbreaks of rain pushing eastwards this morning fizzling out as it does so gradually with drier conditions spreading from the south later. Maximum temperatures in the 16-20c range.

TONIGHT ..... Mostly cloudy conditions will hold up temperatures into double figures. Winds calming down to moderate levels more widely. Chance of drizzle out to the west.

WEDNESDAY ..... Outbreaks of persistent rain pushing in from the west again and spreading eastwards through the day. Some of this will be heavy in the west. Winds veering to southerly winds so becoming that bit more humid in the rain. Temperatures in the 16-20c range but with the higher humidity, it will feel warmer at times.

THURSDAY ..... Some heavy showers at first becoming confined to the north and drier, sunnier conditions will spread from the south later in the day. Maximum temperatures will shoot up in any sunshine that does develop ranging from 18 to 23c.

FRIDAY ..... Dry with periods of variable cloud and sunshine. Winds light in nature with the outside chance of a shower for scattered parts. Maximum temperatures ranging from 18 to 25c.

SATURDAY ..... Dry and mostly sunny again with light winds that are variable in direction courtesy of an anticyclone that will ridge over top of us. Maximum temperatures ranging from 18 to 24c.

SUNDAY ..... Staying dry and mostly sunny. Could be quite a warm day with maxima getting up to 26 or 27c whilst more generally 18 to 25c. Compared to what the guidance showed initially, now it looks as though the warmest conditions will be in the south. Big changes like this prove the uncertainty.

OUTLOOK ..... The uncertainty has not been resolved overnight again. The model guidance has been supportive of retrogressing the high pressure out into the Atlantic and send us down a northerly. This would mean a dramatic cool down with damp conditions but not really all that wet for Ireland as any low pressure would be to the east of England. Tuesday 7th August seems to be the will it or won't it day of next week which is still over 7 days away. I must note that the first day of August 1976 (as this Summer has been compared so much to 1976) was dominated by a northerly wind with unusually cold overnight temperatures recorded, even getting to freezing point in rural areas of the UK. This was then followed the second heatwave of the Summer which lasted for a good two weeks with lots of sunshine.

Teleconnections do not support the idea of high retrogression into the Atlantic. In fact, they support the opposite of the high going eastwards.

Equally, the high pressure could ridge over us a couple of days then weaken before another ridge from the Azores comes to us. I think any scenario here is as likely as one another.

August remains a mystery even though it starts tomorrow!

sryanbruen

Wednesday, 1 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Rain spreading eastwards during the morning which will be heavy in nature with accumulations surpassing 10mm for many especially in the northwest and west. This rain will clear by the end of the day leaving scattered showers behind. Southerly winds giving off a more humid feel compared to recent days with maximum temperatures ranging from 16-20c.

TONIGHT ..... After the main rain band clears, scattered showers will push across the country. Very warm and humid night with minimum temperatures not getting much below the mid-teens from 12-16c.

THURSDAY ..... Heavy showers forming into longer spells of rain pushing northeastwards with an improvement from the south later in the day as high pressure begins to take over. Chance of sunny spells developing from the south but in general, a cloudy, warm and humid day with maxima ranging from 18-23c.

FRIDAY ..... Fairly dull start with showers now likely across the north. The high humidity could trigger some showers elsewhere at times and with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. Maximum temperatures ranging from 18-24c in light westerly breezes.

SATURDAY ..... Staying warm and humid but the chances of showers have grown overnight, mainly in the north. Otherwise, variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. Mist and sea fog possible along coastal regions. Maxima ranging from 18-23c.

SUNDAY ..... Similar day to Saturday but a little warmer again. Variable cloud and sunny spells but humid with maxima ranging from 18-24c. 25c is possible once the sun really shines in the south and southeast.

MONDAY ..... The weather attempts to stay dry but there is kind of a battle going on with an area of low pressure over Iceland, high pressure over us/to the east and an area of showery rain up from Biscay. Ireland is in between the low and showery rain on latest guidance so sort of a nowcast for now if Monday will hang on to drier conditions. It is likely to be another warm day though with maxima ranging from 18-24c.

OUTLOOK ..... The models are still playing with different solutions. I do not know what is causing this huge mess in their output. I thought by now that they would at least have some idea on the pattern but it doesn't look like it. What I will say is that normally when these sorts of events take place, it's a signal that there's a pattern change on the way and the models cannot get a grips of it. Models never do good with pattern changes. It is not as simple as say high pressure will develop over Iceland and low pressure will develop over Ireland. There are plenty of ways the pattern can change such as a low forming over Scandinavia, that's a major pattern change on the past month or so. I'm only talking hypothetically here but if the low were to form over Scandinavia, it would matter of its alignment of just how far east it lies. If it lies close to the east of England, it would mean a northerly flow. If it lies over Finland, high pressure would likely be over top of us much like early June. This is just an example.

If I were to give my own thoughts based on the methodology I use and a compromise of the model output, I would go for a fairly typical westerly pattern with temperatures relatively close to average. High pressure will try and make a fight from the Azores and south but equally, low pressure from the north will join the battle.

There are many conflicting signals for August and beyond that it was difficult to give the above. Hopefully we'll have better confidence and thoughts on the matters soon.

sryanbruen

Thursday, 2 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Showery rain will spread eastwards during the day but this is most likely to be light in nature in the south and southeast. This will become quite persistent in particular over the northwest where accumulated rainfall totals are likely to exceed 10mm once again. Winds calmer today from a light southwesterly direction but this will in turn make fog and mist more likely to form in scattered places. Cloudy and very humid day on the whole with maxima ranging from 17 or 18c out west to 23c in the south and southeast. Chance of sunny spells spreading up from the southeast.

TONIGHT ..... Continuing very humid and warm wit further mainly cloudy conditions. Any showery rain should start to be light everywhere as the general band clears into Britain. Fog still likely to persist with minimum temperatures not getting below 14 to 17c.

FRIDAY ..... Largely cloudy and misty at first with light showers likely to break out along the northern half of Ireland. Chance of some of these showers verging into a longer spell of rain for a time in the midlands through Leinster but this is uncertain. Sunny spells will attempt to develop from the south and east as the day wears on. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 23c.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY ..... Mainly dry with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. The best of any sunshine will be in east and south, also parts of the midlands. Always likely to be more cloud in the north where drizzle is possible to break out. Winds veering from a northwesterly on Saturday when temperatures will range from 17 to 22c to a southwesterly on Sunday when temperatures will range from 17 to 24c.

MONDAY ..... There's a chance that some sunny spells may hold on in the east and south but it looks as though that light rain will push into the north and west which will gradually try to introduce some fresher air. Monday is most likely to be another warm and humid day however with maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 23c.

OUTLOOK ..... The case has been solved on what has been causing this mess in the model output and all the uncertainty. It's down to a phenomena called a rossby wave. A tropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean is attempting to interact with the atmospheric waves causing a downstream rossby wave to occur. Rossby waves are meanders in high altitude winds which have a big influence on the weather and the jet stream. The jet stream if you do not know is the driving force of our pressure systems. When it's to the north, it usually gives us warm and settled conditions. When it's through us, it usually gives us wet conditions with not a big deviation from average temperature. When it's to the south of us, it usually gives us either wet or dry but cold conditions depending on the time of year.

This rossby wave is attempting to bring a pattern change in the weather over parts of the Northern Hemisphere courtesy of perhaps a meander in the jet stream. One such pattern change that has been shown by some model runs is the Scandinavia Low which I mentioned in yesterday's post as a hypothetical example of a pattern change that could take place. This makes sense because as I described in the forecast post the other day, when the models tend to change this much and so often, it's a signal for a pattern change of some kind somewhere that will influence the alignment of the pressure systems in Europe during August.

The jet stream will push northwards for a time Sunday which is why this weekend is going to be more settled than the past week. However, the rossby wave will influence the jet stream by giving it a bit of "oomph" and make it go southwards again by next week.

I said previously that in theory, the quiet Atlantic hurricane season should help to prolong the settled pattern. Well theory ain't always reality. In fact, it's looking like the opposite for Ireland with it prolonging unsettled conditions. In relation to this topic, one thing that could push the high pressure back northwards is a big tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic but with colder than average sea surface temperatures in the main development region for tropical cyclones, that is very unlikely to happen.

With all this considered, I think any attempts of settled weather will be transient i.e. temporary/brief, much like this weekend with mostly changeable conditions and a mobile westerly regime being the dominant feature. However, I must stress that the uncertainty continues regardless of finding the culprit to all of it. Gradually getting there on understanding the situation. Expect further flips and flops in the forecast I'm afraid!

sryanbruen

Friday, 3 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Showery rain clearing eastwards with misty conditions to start the day . Cloud breaking up gradually with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine in the south and east but most likely will stay cloudy elsewhere. Light winds mainly from a westerly direction but quite warm with maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 24c.

TONIGHT ..... Staying dry and cloudy overnight with the possibility of mist and sea fog developing in variable winds. Not as warm as last night but still pretty warm with minimum temperatures in the 11 to 14c range.

SATURDAY ..... Variable amounts of cloud and sunshine and mainly dry conditions being the dominant theme of the day. Winds veering to a light northwesterly for many so a bit cooler than today or Thursday with maximum temperatures from 17 to 22c.

SUNDAY ..... Similar to Saturday with dry and fairly sunny conditions for most. Winds veering back to southwesterly meaning temperatures will rise back up again to the 17 to 24c range.

MONDAY ..... Rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading eastwards through the day whilst the south and east should stay dry for much of the period. Maximum temperatures still fairly warm in the 17 to 22c range but starting to take a dive.

TUESDAY ..... Damp with light outbreaks of rain scattered over the country. Maximum temperatures continue to drop down to the 15 to 19c range.

WEDNESDAY ..... Further damp conditions with possibly longer spells of rain pushing in from the west taking an edge off the maximum temperatures again. Uncertainty is still here but maximum temperatures are expected to only be from 14 to 18c.

OUTLOOK ..... Certainty continues to grow now as it looks like the pattern change has departed from the upper atmosphere and is going to occur in the troposphere where weather takes place, next week. This means that we will be in a mobile westerly regime with quite a strong jet stream overhead which has the chance to bring some unusually windy weather again much like the end of July helped by the contrast of cold sea surface temperatures to the North Atlantic and the warm sea surface temperatures around our shores. Air is going to come off a cool North Atlantic so maximum temperatures are likely to struggle in the mid-teens at best.

Away from perhaps some northern regions, rainfall amounts don't look like amounting to very much despite the pattern change. I think the main shock to the system will be the temperatures as 20c will not be an easy figure to achieve unless the Azores throws up a ridge which isn't likely any time soon and even then, likely to be brief or temporary as we have lost the Scandinavia High which is key to many hot Summers in our history.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 4 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Variable amounts of cloud and sunshine through the day. Sunshine should begin to become more frequent as time passes but mainly cloudy and misty out in the north and west for a lot of the period. Light northwesterly breezes giving away to cooler temperatures than the past two days but still relatively warm for most with maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 23c.

TONIGHT ..... Some drizzle is possible in the northwest but otherwise mainly dry with a mix of clear skies and mist patches scattered over the country. Minimum temperatures getting down to 10 to 14c so a more comfortable night to come.

SUNDAY ..... Further spells of variable sunshine and cloud but always more cloud around in the northwest and northern regions of Ireland close to where the jet stream will be. In this cloud, again the chance of drizzle is possible. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 25c in light southwesterly breezes.

MONDAY ..... Outbreaks of rain pushing southwards through the day. In previous days, this rain was looking like lingering in the north and west for quite a lot of Monday and even into Tuesday but it may push southwards quicker than expected. This rain right now looks weak in nature and just very damp conditions generally with clearer and drier weather following on behind but also fresher during the afternoon. Winds veering westerly with maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 22c.

TUESDAY ..... As the rain looks to be clearing much quicker than the guidance showed previously, the day will be mainly bright with sunshine and scattered showers. The showers mainly in the north and west. Maximum temperatures ranging from 15 to 19c.

WEDNESDAY ..... Showery rain pushes eastwards during the morning and afternoon then the showers break up but still quite heavy in nature producing a very blustery day on Wednesday with fairly brisk westerly breezes. Sunny spells in between these showers. Maximum temperatures ranging from 14 to 18c.

OUTLOOK ..... Thursday is likely to be another showery and cool day with maximum temperatures struggling in the mid-teens widely in a northwesterly airstream.

Overnight, there has been talks of a North Sea storm to the east of the UK later next week. That was shown by the afternoon and evening runs of the models yesterday but that has now immediately disappeared showing you how useless numerical weather prediction is at the moment.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index now is likely to stay positive through the first half of August which after it being positive since early April is extremely remarkable. The positive phase of the NAO shows low pressure persistently over Greenland with high pressure over the Azores ridging up to Ireland which has been the case this Summer. This pattern is why Greenland and Iceland have had a very poor Summer in contrast to us. Now with this likely to continue, the Azores High has a chance of throwing up a transient ridge quicker than I originally thought after what the guidance showed for the past few days along with the rossby wave mentioned the other day. When that will occur is open up to question as it doesn't look like occurring up to at least mid-week. Weather is a complex matter, the smallest things can make a big difference in the circulation around the Northern Hemisphere.

Nevertheless, mid-week to late next week still looks like being a shock to the system in terms of maximum temperatures and only feeling even cooler in frequent showers and brisk westerly to northwesterly winds.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 5 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Variable amounts of cloud and spells of sunshine again today with cloud most persistent in the north and west. This cloud will be followed by some outbreaks of rain occurring during the latter part of the day. Light southwesterly breezes giving away to maximum temperatures in the 17-25c range.

TONIGHT ..... The rain will push further into the north and west overnight whilst it will generally be dry but cloudy elsewhere with minimum temperatures holding up in the 11-14c range.

MONDAY ..... Cloudy and damp for most with the rain continuing to push further southwards through the morning and into the afternoon. Clearer skies should develop behind the front out west but also fresher. Light southwesterly winds and maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 22c.

TUESDAY ..... Light to moderate westerly winds giving away quite a different feel to the day compared to previous days with maximum temperatures ranging from 15-19c. Sunshine and scattered showers over the country.

WEDNESDAY ..... Sunshine and heavy frequent showers with the chance of some of these being thundery. Blustery day with moderate westerly winds and maximum temperatures only ranging from 14-18c.

THURSDAY ..... Further blustery conditions with frequent heavy showers and sunny spells in between. Maximum temperatures may not get much above 13 or 14c in some parts but more generally 15-17c.

OUTLOOK ..... The weekend looks unsettled again with more showers and longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures may start to rise though as the Azores High tries to ridge into southern parts of the country. Until then, becoming cooler than average for the time of year (how many times have we got to say that this Summer?) and showery as is often the case in August.

sryanbruen

Monday, 6 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Outbreaks of mainly light rain pushing southeastwards through the day. Rather cloudy ahead of the front but brighter, fresher air will follow on from behind the front. Light southwesterly winds and maximum temperatures ranging from 16-22c.

TONIGHT ..... With the exception of some isolated showers, the last of the rain is expected to clear and leave the country with good clear spells. Minimum temperatures getting down to the low teens.

TUESDAY ..... Much fresher day with sunshine and scattered showers over the country. More general showery rain will push in from the west overnight clearing the morning on Wednesday for the east. Winds becoming a westerly with maximum temperatures ranging from 15-19c.

WEDNESDAY ..... After the showery rain clears, widespread showers will occur with the chance of some rumbles of thunder and hail possible. Sunny spells in between these widespread heavy showers. Brisk westerly winds making it a blustery day all in all combined with the showers and maximum temperatures ranging from 14-18c.

THURSDAY ..... Further blustery conditions as the frequent heavy showers continue with more rumbles of thunder and hail potential to occur. Again, it will not be all doom and gloom as sunny spells will take place in between these showers. Maximum temperatures ranging from only 14-17c though in moderate westerly winds.

FRIDAY ..... Rain is expected to push eastwards through the day but timings and intensity are to be revealed so watch this space. As the winds try to veer to a southerly ahead of the front, maximum temperatures will be up somewhat to 18 or 19c.

OUTLOOK ..... The outlook from yesterday still stands, temperatures will try to rise somewhat after this mid-week to weekend cool down as the Azores High attempts to throw up a ridge into the southern parts of Ireland. However, further showers or spells of rain are likely.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 7 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Fresher today with sunshine and scattered showers. These showers will generally be in the west and mainly light. Light westerly breezes with maximum temperatures in the 15-19c range.

TONIGHT ..... Heavier showers with develop overnight from the Atlantic and spread eastwards over Ireland. They break up and become lighter as they do so. Minimum temperatures getting down to 9-11c.

WEDNESDAY ..... Blustery and showery. Some of the showers heavy in nature especially out west with the chance of some rumbles of thunder and hail to develop. Sunny spells in between the showers but quite a cool day in brisk westerly breezes as maximum temperatures of only 14-19c.

THURSDAY ..... Showers continue to be widespread and fairly heavy with more rumbles of thunder and hail potential. Brisk westerly winds again with maximum temperatures in the 14-18c range.

FRIDAY ..... The day should start dry for most but rain will push in from the Atlantic by the late morning and spread eastwards through the afternoon into the evening with strong southwest to southerly winds. This means maximum temperatures will go up somewhat on previous days for some parts but only very partly in the 16-19c range.

SATURDAY ..... Beginning wet with the last of the rain clearing the east by the afternoon with sunshine and showers following from the west. Friday night into Saturday morning will be very windy for a time. Maximum temperatures in the 16-20c range.

OUTLOOK ..... Cooler again on Sunday as a northwesterly develops with further showery conditions. After that, temperatures should rise somewhat once more with a changeable pattern in order. This means that there will be a mix of dry periods with sunshine and showers, also some bands of rain at times.

sryanbruen

Wednesday, 8 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Sunshine and showers with the odd one heavy in nature. Some rumbles of thunder and hail is possible with these showers. Maximum temperatures ranging from 14-19c in moderate westerly breezes.

TONIGHT ..... Quite a cool night especially compared to preceding ones with minimum temperatures widely down to 6-9c. Clear spells will develop especially in eastern regions but showers may remain for some out west with further heavy ones to occur potentially.

THURSDAY ..... Sunshine and showers expected again with some of them being on the heavy side and hail or thunder mixed in. Maximum temperatures ranging from 14-18c in light to moderate westerly breezes.

FRIDAY ..... Rain has been significantly delayed now 'til later in the day. The day itself is expected to be mostly dry with isolated showers. Light to moderate westerly breezes, later veering southwesterly to southerly, giving off to maximum temperatures in the 16-19c range. Due to the change in wind direction, expect Friday night to be warmer and more humid.

SATURDAY ..... Quite a windy day to come with gusty southerly winds expected to take place which will give the temperatures an improvement but not really the weather as it'll be humid, damp with some longer spells of rain at times and cloudy conditions. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-21c.

SUNDAY ..... Rain gradually easing and clearing starting off the day to a damp start but should become brighter going by the latest guidance. Showers will occur at times during this brighter weather with maximum temperatures ranging from 15-20c.

OUTLOOK ..... There isn't a lot to discuss as it's a rather typical week of weather for the most part with sunnier, drier moments and wetter interludes taking place at times. Maximum temperatures likely to become near average for the time of year rather than below.

sryanbruen

Thursday, 9 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Sunshine and showers the main theme today with some odd rumbles of thunder and hail mixed in. These showers will gradually spread eastwards to affect more regions through the afternoon. Maximum temperatures ranging from 14-19c in light to moderate westerly breezes.

TONIGHT ..... Showers become more scattered and isolated again; mainly out west and in the northwest, with clear spells developing leaving quite a cool night. Minimum temperatures could drop to around 4 or 5c which would make it the coldest night since 22nd June whilst most parts in the 6-9c range.

FRIDAY ..... Further sunshine and showers with some of these heavy at times in the north. Light westerly breezes continuing to feed in cool air off the Atlantic until nightfall when winds will veer to a southwesterly or southerly indicating rain is on the way resulting in a warmer and more humid night. Maximum temperatures during the day in the 16-19c range.

SATURDAY ..... A cloudy and damp day with patchy rain at first. The period will get wetter and wetter as more persistent rain pushing eastwards through the day. This rain will be quite heavy for some with totals expected at this moment to be in the 5-30mm range. The rain will most likely be heaviest over the north midlands into Northern Ireland where totals might exceed this likely rainfall total range. This low will include the remnants to tropical storm Debby and as a result of this along with warm air ascending ahead of it, this will only intensify rainfall amounts as warmer air can hold more moisture. Still uncertainty on exact details but watch this space. Winds now don't look very strong but nevertheless, they will freshen somewhat with the arrival of this low. Maximum temperatures likely in the 16-21c range so feeling humid in places.

SUNDAY ..... The last of the rain gradually clears northwards and eastwards leaving us back in square one with sunshine and scattered showers. Maximum temperatures in the 15-21c range.

MONDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers with maximum temperatures in the 15-21c range.

OUTLOOK ..... More of the same with days of sunshine and showers, rain at times but temperatures closer to average than this week for most.

sryanbruen

Friday, 10 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Variable amounts of cloud and sunshine with scattered showers in places. These scattered showers will become more isolated and confined to the north by the evening with maximum temperatures ranging from 15-20c in fairly light westerly breezes, veering southerly later.

TONIGHT ..... Winds veering southerly bringing humidity up and not as cold as the previous few nights. Staying generally dry and clear but some drizzle will affect southwestern regions with minimum temperatures getting down to 6-11c.

SATURDAY ..... The east could have some sunny spells in the morning but generally a warmer but damp day with the arrival of the remnants of tropical storm Debby expected to give some outbreaks of rain which will become quite heavy by the afternoon and evening as it pushes eastwards from the Atlantic in moderate to fairly brisk southerly winds. The estimate of rainfall from 5-30mm still stands as a fairly good range of what you can expect. However, keep in mind some models have downgraded the rain overnight for Ireland. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-21c. Humidity will be high making it an uncomfortable and sticky day.

SUNDAY ..... Humid again with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine but there will be scattered showers which will be quite slow moving this time around. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-21c.

MONDAY ..... Sunshine and showers with maximum temperatures ranging from 16-22c.

TUESDAY ..... Becoming fairly windy with rain on its way to the north and west but exact timings to be revealed. This rain is likely to be persistent in nature but get weaker and weaker as it pushes southwards. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-23c. Any warm sunshine ahead of the front could make temperatures climb further in moderate southwesterly winds.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 11 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Much colder than expected this morning with minimum temperatures getting as low as 1 or 2c in some of the midlands; and even near freezing in Northern Ireland where the temperature fell to 0.3c at Katesbridge, Co. Down. This is due to the arrival of the remnants of tropical storm Debby being delayed further. Light rain is pushing into the southwest and south this morning, gradually spreading northwards and eastwards. Humidity is becoming high at the same time in those regions with maximum temperatures in the 16-21c range in freshening southerly winds. The rainfall now looking light in nature for most with only some odd heavier bursts as it crosses the east of the country.

TONIGHT ..... The rain will attempt to clear leaving scattered showers behind but mostly dry and humid with minimum temperatures getting down to 11-14c.

SUNDAY ...... Further humid conditions with variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. Scattered showers too in parts with maximum temperatures ranging from 16-21c in light westerly breezes.

MONDAY ...... Mostly dry with well scattered showers and sunny spells. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-22c in light westerly breezes again.

TUESDAY ..... Outbreaks of light rain will push into the north and west bringing a cloudy and damp affair. Ahead of this however, it will be warm and humid with some sunny spells. A southwesterly flow will bring a temperature range of 16c in the northwest but there is the chance of reaching 23 or 24c in the south and east.

WEDNESDAY ..... The rain will push eastwards and some clearer, fresher conditions will develop from the west. Keep in mind, this rain could be delayed or brought forward as we get closer to the timeframe like with similar scenarios we've had in the week just gone. Maximum temperatures currently signalled at 16-22c.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 12 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Due to Boards being down for much of the day, the forecast is coming in late so here it is. Hopefully normal service resumes in the morning.

THIS EVENING & TONIGHT ..... Mostly cloudy with scattered heavy showers at times but a few sunny spells will take place during the period. Fairly humid but humidity will drop overnight as the winds veer to a westerly leading to the development of mist and fog. Temperatures this evening in the high teens will drop to the 10-14c range overnight.

MONDAY ..... Humidity will begin to increase again with cloud developing for the large majority after some early sunny spells possibly in the south and east. As this cloud approaches, drizzle will form in the west and north but this will be mainly confined to those regions. Brighter conditions may develop again later in the day. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-23c. Winds light to moderate in westerly to southwesterly direction.

TUESDAY ..... Similar to Monday for the most part with cloudy conditions persisting out west with some odd sunny spells to the south and east. Drizzle will continue in the cloud in the north and west with more persistent rainfall expected to occur later in the day. In the sunshine, temperatures will be peaking in around the 22-24c range but out west more like 16-18c generally in humid southwesterly winds.

WEDNESDAY ..... Rain overnight will attempt to clear eastwards leaving showers behind and some sunny spells after possible. However, the rain may persist for a time in the east. Temperatures fairly close to average for the time of year in the 16-21c range.

THURSDAY ..... Sunshine and showers but temperatures back down to below average mostly in blustery westerly winds. Maximum temperatures in the 14-18 range generally though don't rule out higher in the south and southeast if sunshine does develop and shelter from showers.

OUTLOOK ..... Remains changeable with us firmly in a westerly regime meaning temperature changes from day to day along with sunnier, cloudier days and drier, wetter, showier days. It's all rather typical.

sryanbruen

Monday, 13 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Starting off fairly sunny in the east but cloud will approach to all from the Atlantic with outbreaks of patchy rain or drizzle occurring in the north and west. This cloud is likely to break up to give some more sunny spells later in the day. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-22c in westerly winds.

TONIGHT ..... Winds veering to a southwesterly so it will become a humid and mild night with minimum temperatures not getting much lower than 12 or 13c for most. It will stay dry with some clear spells but also the chance of further drizzle out west.

TUESDAY ..... Some bright spells to the east and southeast but in general, a cloudy humid day is expected. The drizzle to the north and west will become heavier and more persistent as the day wears on. Southwesterly winds giving away to temperatures in the range of 16-24c, warmest in the southeast.

WEDNESDAY ..... Rain will push eastwards through the day and at this moment, it's looking quite wet with some welcome rain expected for parts. It is likely to be persistent and steady for much of the day with showers following on from the west later. Will have total estimates tomorrow perhaps. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17-21c in fresh southerly winds so fairly windy combined with the heavy rain.

THURSDAY ..... Sunshine and showers. Temperatures back down to below average for the time of year as winds veer westerly with a range of 14-19c. The cooler and fresher feel will be particularly felt in the south and east.

FRIDAY ..... Another day of sunshine and scattered showers is likely but temperatures expected to be in the 16-20c range this time with the winds veering back southwesterly.

sryanbruen

Tuesday, 14 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Mostly cloudy with some sunny spells possible to the south and east. Outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the north and west will become more persistent as the day wears on. Rainfall totals likely to end up just below 10mm however. A humid day courtesy of southwesterly winds bringing maximum temperatures up to the 16-23c range. 24c is possible once the sun shines in the southeast.

TONIGHT ..... The light rain will spread to most tonight so with all the cloud about, it will be a very mild night with minimum temperatures not getting below 12-16c. This combined with the high humidity will make for some uncomfortable sleeping.

WEDNESDAY ..... Rain clearing during the morning and into the afternoon with mostly cloudy, humid conditions again. This rain is now likely to be light too with totals from Tuesday into Wednesday ending up around only 1mm in parts of the south and east but 10-20mm possible in the north and west especially over mountainous regions. Behind this rain, brighter spells will develop but also showers following on with fresher conditions. The fresher conditions will be noticeable Wednesday night in contrast to Tuesday night. Maximum temperatures during the day itself ranging from 16-22c.

THURSDAY ..... Scattered showers and some sunny spells but quite a cool day with maximum temperatures only ranging from 14-19c. Westerly winds will be brisk. Very blustery day overall.

FRIDAY ..... There is uncertainty on the timings of a band of rain which keeps chopping and changing on a daily basis so it's quite a nuisance at the moment. The likelihood of this right now is for it to push in Friday evening into Friday night for most but the day itself should be dry with sunny spells and a few scattered showers especially in the east. Maximum temperatures ranging from 15-20c.

OUTLOOK ..... I have been mentioning the word "uncertainty" a lot since I started doing the forecasts at the end of July. Well just how uncertain has been the weather been? Ryan Maue of Weather.us posted a chart of model verification yesterday on his Twitter which showed the predicted 500hPa heights by the models in comparison to what actually happened. In a series since 2009, the verification was the worst on record with models well off including the ECM which is known for being the most accurate out of the lot so that is saying something. We do not know what is causing all this uncertainty. After all, the Atlantic is quiet in terms of tropical cyclones. I described before what a rossby wave is and how it could have caused the uncertainty at the end of July which seemed to work well because after that was found, certainty grew but now we're back to square one. We'll just have to wait and see as this is a seriously difficult time for forecasters. This is all part of the rollercoaster of weather forecasting.

sryanbruen

Wednesday, 15 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... The uncertainty, which I explained in detail in yesterday's post, has become very noticeable and apparent this morning with the current weather especially along eastern coastlines where the rain was meant to be at around this time but instead, there's variable amounts of cloud and sunshine. Scattered outbreaks of rain over various parts of the south including Cork, mainly light and this is likely to gather pace across the southeast later with the rain becoming heavier somewhat. A brighter interlude is pushing into the west but later showery rain will develop extending eastwards. Moderate southwesterly winds will give away to maximum temperatures mainly ranging from 16-22c.

TONIGHT ..... Showery rain will spread out into more scattered showers particularly in western regions. Cooler than other nights with minimum temperatures getting down to 9-12c. The cooler feel will be noticeable after the warm and humid past few nights, especially Tuesday night.

THURSDAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers. Brisk westerly winds will make it feel autumnal and cool with maximum temperatures ranging from 14-19c mostly. Any sunshine and shelter from the westerly wind along with the showers could help to boost the temperature to 20c or so in the southeast. These showers will be fairly heavy in nature for some with the risk of hail and thunder in the north.

FRIDAY ..... The band of rain is likely to be light and mainly affect the west with only a few millimeters expected for the most part particularly in the south and east. In the patchiest of the rain, a few brighter spells could develop, otherwise a fairly warm and more humid day and mostly cloudy with maximum temperatures in the 15-21c range. Winds veering to a moderate southwesterly direction.

OUTLOOK ..... I do not think it's much use going on any further with the forecast beyond day 3. Fantasy Island (FI) if you do not already know is a term we use to coin the period that is least likely to come true and is to be taken with a large pinch of salt. This period is normally beyond 120 hours away but with the uncertainty we've had lately, FI is more around 2-3 days i.e. 48 to 72 hours away.

There is a subtropical disturbance that has formed in the North Atlantic called subtropical depression five. At the moment, this looks like heading towards Ireland on Saturday night into Sunday morning but I wouldn't place any bets on it at this rate. Wind is not likely to be an issue with this trough but there will be rain. This could be one possible culprit to the uncertainty. Again we'll have to see.

sryanbruen

Thursday, 16 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Sunshine and scattered showers. Some of the showers heavy in nature with a risk of hail and thunder in the north. Westerly winds will be fresh to fairly gusty giving away to quite an autumnal feel to the day. Maximum temperatures ranging from only 14-19c.

TONIGHT ..... Mostly dry and clear early on but light rain and drizzle will begin to spread in from the west later. Minimum temperatures getting down to 10-12c with winds veering to a southwesterly direction.

FRIDAY ..... A few brighter spells possible in the patchiest of the rain further south and east. In all, a cloudy day with drizzle to light rain. Though the rain will be light, the persistence of it could lead to some large totals. This is likely to be heaviest in the northwest earlier in the day. Humidity will rise high again as the winds veer to a southwesterly. Friday night will be very mild and humid.

SATURDAY ..... If the current guidance is correct, I must stress this given the uncertainty lately and even if we didn't have the uncertainty we do have now, there is always some kind of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones and depressions; the day will start off dry with any rain there is to be in the form of drizzle in the northwest. However, heavy rain will gather pace from the Atlantic courtesy of the remnants of subtropical storm Ernesto by the latter end of the day and push eastwards. Rainfall totals likely to fall within the 5-25mm range by Sunday noon. Highest totals mainly over the southwest and mid-west. Before it arrives, it will be pumping up some warm and very humid conditions. It is looking like a very sticky day on Saturday with this even continuing into Saturday night. Maximum temperatures on Saturday ranging from 17c in the northwest to 25c possibly in the southeast in fresh south to southwesterly winds. Minimum temperatures may not get below 15-17c Saturday night.

SUNDAY ..... Cloudy start to the day with a lot of low cloud, mist and outbreaks of light rain clearing eastwards. It will turn brighter later but another humid day with maximum temperatures ranging from 17-22c.

OUTLOOK ..... Looking changeable. I know that's a really really short description of the outlook beyond Sunday but the uncertainty is disallowing the forecasts to be accurate beyond that timeframe as I have described previously. Current guidance suggests next week to start off warm and humid but then become fresher with sunshine and showers by the latter half.