Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast most of the day in both eastern and southwestern counties, as one outbreak of drizzly light rain drifts away from the east coast, another heavier band of rain will slowly move into the southwest by afternoon and evening. Most other locations will start out foggy or misty and quite cold with isolated frost clearing followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs 7 to 10 C. Winds light to moderate southeast will pick up steadily this afternoon reaching 40-60 km/hr in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue to edge further east, 10-15 mm likely by morning, with brisk southeast winds spreading further east as well, picking up to 50-70 km/hr. Lows 5 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain continuing, a further 10-20 mm possible in parts of south central counties and Connacht. Strong southeast winds easing gradually, peaking at about 60-80 km/hr mid-day. Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud followed by overcast skies with rain, strong southerly winds by the overnight hours. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, highs near 10 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some with hail, moderate southwest winds. Highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week will be breezy to windy at times, overcast with a few breaks, and showery with some intervals of steady rain. It may become very windy by about Thursday or Friday (21st). Highs throughout will be 8 to 10 C. It may turn somewhat colder in northerly winds around the weekend of 22nd-23rd and the Christmas holiday weather at this point looks rather cold too with intervals of rain or sleet, some risk of snow, and winds between westerly and northwesterly in passing frontal systems. During this colder turn, parts of eastern England may pick up some heavier snowfalls but Ireland may be subject to a few isolated light falls. Highs around 4 to 7 C in the holiday period, with some chance of a colder outcome.

My local weather on Tuesday was windy and overcast with fog, wet snow and some rain at times, temperatures steady near 1 degree C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain with moderate southeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr, a further 10-15 mm will fall in parts of Munster and Connacht, 5-10 mm for Leinster and Ulster. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering off to drizzle during the evening then some fog or mist developing, lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Foggy or misty to start, some breaks in the overcast developing, with isolated showers, rain returning from the southwest by late in the day, as winds begin to freshen. Highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with outbreaks of heavy rain especially in north central counties and west Ulster where 30 mm could fall. Winds during the morning from the south at 50-80 km/hr may increase when they veer to westerly reaching 70 to 110 km/hr. Temperatures throughout will be steady around 9 or 10 C then slowly falling by late afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate southwest winds, isolated showers some with hail or thunder. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, mainly dry, winds increasing late in the day to southerly 50 km/hr, lows -1 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with rain, heavy at times (20 to 40 mm potential), winds southerly 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy at times all week, with a gradual slight fall in temperatures to the 6 to 8 C range. There are conflicting model depictions of the Christmas period weather, with some suggestions of considerably colder weather, isolated hail or snow showers but largely dry in northeast winds, highs around 4 to 6 C with slight to moderate frosts possible. But other guidance just keeps the drab Atlantic cloudiness feeding in from the southwest without this colder interval, so the watch is on for the right solution to that question.

My local weather cleared up briefly between storms, with a somewhat milder high of 3 C, and we are now expecting a rain-snow mix for the next two days. It is amazing how quickly the snow depth increases as we drive up local hills, the town in the valley had perhaps 5 cms, within a few kilometres you can find 15 to 25 cms of fresh snow.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, generally dry but with a few patchy outbreaks of drizzle, rain developing later in south and west, as winds begin to pick up to southeast 40-70 km/hr. Rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain and strong southeast winds will spread into south coast counties, overcast with light to moderate rain further north, lows 7 to 9 C. Winds southeast 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed south coastal areas, less windy elsewhere. 20-30 mm rainfalls by morning in parts of the south and southeast.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain will spread north from south central counties into midlands, parts of Connacht and Ulster, as well as most of Leinster. Amounts 20-30 mm. Some western counties will receive about 10-20 mm. Strong south winds 60 to 100 km/hr will continue east of the track of low pressure in parts of the southeast and east. Eventually a strong west to northwest wind will develop near the west coast by afternoon and this will sweep through central counties to the east coast by evening, with gusts to 90 km/hr. A few exposed coastal areas of the northwest may see gusts to 110 km/hr. Temperatures will be steady around 8 to 10 C for most places, 10 to 13 C in the southeast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some with hail or thunder, but also some sunny breaks, cooler with moderate southwest winds at 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast, becoming very windy with heavy rain developing by afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 70-110 km/hr and rainfalls of 20-30 mm. Temperatures steady 10 or 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain continuing heavy at times in the east for part of the morning, with gradual clearing further west, not as windy, and slightly cooler, temperatures near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather bland weather is expected later in the week for several days which may be welcome as people begin to travel and shop more frequently in advance of the holidays. Temperatures about 8 C in that period. By the weekend (of 22nd-23rd) it may begin to turn somewhat colder in stages, with some guidance suggesting quite cold weather arriving just in time for Christmas Eve. The most likely temperatures for the 24th and 25th from a blend of all guidance would be 4 to 7 C but it could be colder than that and there is some risk of snow or sleet in some of the forecast model guidance.

My local weather on Thursday was windy and mild, as southerly winds broke into our valley with some fairly strong gusts at times. There was intermittent rain at lower elevations and snow higher up. The high was about 5 C. We are expecting more windy and unsettled weather today and into the weekend with falling temperatures by Friday night.

M.T. Cranium

Forecast Update _ Friday 14 December, 2018 _ 8 p.m.
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A complex storm system is approaching Ireland tonight and will bring heavy rainfalls to most of the country from around midnight to late Saturday. Totals of 30 to 50 mm rainfall possible, heaviest expected to be roughly Cork-Kerry to Limerick-Clare to Athlone-Sligo into Ulster but other pockets of locally similar totals in west Connacht and locally around higher terrain in the southeast. Some river flooding may develop, but the greater concern would be for poor driving conditions at times on major routes due to surface water accumulations and hydroplaning potential. Would avoid longer distance travel on Saturday if possible, or exercise extreme caution due to these conditions. Road spray combined with some strong wind gusts could be a hazard also. As to strong winds with this storm, they will certainly develop around its southern flanks but there is some question as to whether those very strong gusts will hit any portions of the Irish coastline or swing around more towards south Wales which is definitely going to get hit hard with gusts to 140 km/hr possible. Personally I would avoid any ferry crossings tomorrow if possible even if they go ahead. Rough seas and difficult docking on the Welsh side in particular can be expected. The morning update may allow for more precision about wind potential in Ireland but I think the best idea at this point is to expect some risk of strong to damaging wind gusts with the southwest to southeast coastal areas most at risk. The stronger winds with this complex system appear to be following behind the low pressure rather than ahead of it as is often the case, which means that the strongest gusts would be from a westerly direction towards late afternoon and evening, but if it were to strengthen rapidly then very strong south winds could develop at the same time ahead of the trough (as I am expecting will be the case for south Wales).

Expect some chance of this being upgraded to an orange alert in some parts of Ireland, perhaps more for the rain than the wind potential, but it will definitely reach that status in Wales where I believe it already has that warning in place from the UK Met Office.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Alerts are issued for strong winds and heavy rainfalls (storm Deirdre) ... most locations will see 30-50 mm rainfalls with some thunderstorm potential, most likely for the inland south. Local flooding is likely to develop, poor driving conditions may be encountered due to surface water on some major routes and hydroplaning and road spray hazards. Strong winds will first affect mostly the eastern counties as strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr continue, with some strong gusts near east coast. These winds will slowly abate for a time after mid-day as the low pressure trough approaches. Rather variable and sometimes light winds at first in western counties will rapidly increase this afternoon to west-northwest 80-120 km/hr for several hours. These very strong winds will move along the south coast from Cork (around 3 p.m.) to Wexford (by 5 p.m.) and will then rapidly overspread all other counties further north once the low reaches the Irish Sea by evening. Highs will reach 13 C in parts of the south and southeast, 8 to 10 C most other places.

(added 0800h) _ Stay close to forecast sources if you live in the south or southeast, as some guidance is now showing a more intense outcome that might bring severely damaging gusts of 140 km/hr to coastal counties and some parts of inland southeast, in particular from Cork to Wexford. As this storm is just beginning to develop, it may be 1100h before we can nail down these details; just a heads up that "code red" wind warnings are possible if certain guidance is correct. These winds might develop around 1 to 5 p.m. (in any case it will almost certainly be a code orange wind situation which is severe enough).

TONIGHT ... Very windy at first, then moderating westerly winds later, with further rain or drizzle but some clear intervals developing. Lows will reach 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, variable cloud with passing showers, some producing hail and thunder. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Rather cold with highs 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy but dry at first, then becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, winds southerly 70-110 km/hr, highs near 11 C. About 20-30 mm rainfalls are expected by early Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... Rain continuing in the overnight early morning hours and for part of the daytime hours in eastern counties, then tapering to showers with partial clearing spreading from west, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy, rain developing later. Highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain at times, high near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain likely, highs near 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showers at times next weekend (22nd-23rd), slowly turning colder, followed by some dry but frosty intervals around Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with isolated snow or hail showers possible. Temperatures will slide down during this period to -2 C overnight and 5 C daytime. Beyond that, some indications of rapid changes with some rain in the mix but another colder interval to follow.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with gusty winds at times, highs near 6 C. We are expecting some wet snow or sleet overnight and somewhat colder again for the weekend. It is rather chilly in most eastern regions trending to quite mild in the southeast, with a cold rain falling and changing to sleet over some hills, but this system will not produce much snow anywhere before heading out into the Atlantic and then north towards Greenland.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 16 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny breaks to start in Leinster and Ulster, variable cloud with scattered outbreaks of light rain in Munster and Connacht. The rain will become more showery with local hail and thunder, spreading to all areas mid-day, then dying out gradually. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, isolated showers in west and north. Cold, some frost likely, lows -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud by morning, rain developing by afternoon in west, as winds increase to southerly 70 to 100 km/hr near Atlantic and south coasts. Highs near 11 C.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Windy with rain heavy at times, winds southerly 80 to 110 km/hr, 15 to 25 mm total rainfalls. Temperatures steady in the range of 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending during the morning in east, clearing earlier for west with outbreaks of showers in the afternoon again. Cooler, winds more moderate (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr). Highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather windy, outbreaks of rain, highs near 10 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers, highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending, some sunny intervals, highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... The temperature trend from the weekend to Christmas Day will likely be either flat or slowly falling, as somewhat colder air begins to move south behind weaker disturbances next weekend. A few showers or intervals of light rain are likely and some guidance shows temperatures falling close enough to freezing to permit sleet or mixed wintry showers. There is a lot of speculation in weather discussion forums about a colder interval developing due to developments in the stratosphere, and it is felt that the computer models will not necessarily pick up on that entirely until a week or so before it takes place. So for the next while, there is always the caveat that colder weather could intrude within a week to ten days.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny for a change, and it was reasonably mild at 5 C. We are expecting a cold rain or sleet on Sunday with snow at higher elevations.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 17 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy after a few brighter intervals this morning in eastern counties. Southerly winds will begin to increase around mid-day and rain will gradually spread into western counties, becoming heavier by evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with intervals of heavy rain. Southerly winds 80 to 110 km/hr likely, some higher gusts possible near southwest coasts. Rainfalls 20-30 mm will create some spot flooding by morning. Lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending by late morning in east, as partial clearing spreads in from western counties, to be followed by further outbreaks of showery rain, some with hail and thunder, in moderate westerly winds. Somewhat colder with temperatures steady 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, moderate to strong southwest winds redeveloping, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some further rain on the weekend with near normal temperatures 8 to 10 C, then turning somewhat colder with perhaps a few dry days with some sunshine and isolated wintry showers possible for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, gradually turning milder again by the 26th with rain likely by the 27th. The colder spell is not looking very extreme at this point but nights may be somewhat frosty with highs reaching about 7 C.

My local weather on Sunday produced a sleety mix of wet snow and rain, no accumulations of snow and probably less than 10 mm of rain. The high was about 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 18 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain ending by mid to late morning in east (latest in east Ulster by 1100h), as partial clearing spreads in from western counties, to be followed by further outbreaks of showery rain (already forming west of Galway), some hail and thunder but also a few sunny breaks, in moderate westerly winds. The strong southerly winds this morning still underway in parts of Leinster and Ulster will quickly abate as the rain moves east. Somewhat colder than recent days, with temperatures steady 7 to 9 C (a few locations currently above 10 C will drop into that range soon).

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals early evening, increasing cloud by midnight, rain may increase coverage by morning. Lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, moderate to strong southwest winds redeveloping, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of stronger winds may develop by evening, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, at least in exposed west and north coastal areas, probably also near the south coast. This likely won't reach the intensity of either of the recent events, but could produce some alerts. High tides will be prone to minor coastal flooding (full moon approaching, 22nd).

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some localized heavier rainfalls with complex frontal wave pattern, details closer to the event.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers or occasional light rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy and somewhat colder with sunny intervals, only isolated showers expected and some places enjoying a dry day, highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Some spread in the guidance but in general, a dry day expected, could remain rather cold with morning frosts likely, or (in some other guidance) start to turn a little milder through the afternoon, highs somewhere in the 5 to 10 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A chance of rain by later 26th into 27th then turning a little colder towards New Years, some signs of much colder weather spreading south by early January. Weather patterns are showing signs of buckling into what we call "high amplitude waves" which can lock various regions into mild or cold trends. Most of the longer range guidance favours western Europe being closer to a cold northerly phase than a mild southerly phase of this -- so the odds favour a cold outcome. This transition may be gradual from about the 24th onwards.

My local weather was cloudy but mild on Monday, the high reaching 5 C. Mixed rain and snow is expected here later today. Eastern regions are bracing for a major rain and wind event by later in the week, while the west coast will see very stormy conditions by Thursday as well. Both of these storms are going to head for the eastern Canadian arctic where they should play a role in this developing blocking pattern, if the response is higher pressure from Greenland east to Norway, then colder weather is very likely to follow.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 19 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some morning sunny intervals in east, as showers develop in west, then longer intervals of rain or heavier showers, moderate to strong southwest winds redeveloping, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of stronger winds may develop by evening, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, at least in exposed west and north coastal areas, probably also near the south coast. This likely won't reach the intensity of either of the recent events, but could produce some alerts. High tides will be prone to minor coastal flooding (full moon approaching, 22nd). Expect about 10 mm of rain in most places, 5 mm in drier parts of the southeast sheltered by higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Rather windy, occasional showers, partial clearing later, lows 1 to 4 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed coastal areas at least up to midnight or a little later, then gradually easing.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Occasionally breezy, westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, in some exposed coastal areas.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some localized heavier rainfalls with complex frontal wave pattern, most likely near south coast in morning, then redeveloping further north by evening.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers or occasional light rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some strong gusts possible near south coast, and possibility of a sharp frontal boundary developing east-west through central Ireland, highs only 4 to 7 C north of that. Likely not quite cold enough for snow or sleet to develop except possibly on a few high summits in the north.

SUNDAY ... Showers, highs near 9 C. Moderate southwest to west winds. Turning somewhat colder by evening.

MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy (northwest 40 to 60 km/hr) and a little colder with sunny intervals, only isolated showers expected and some places enjoying a dry day, highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Some spread in the guidance continues, but in general, a dry day expected, could remain rather cold for the morning hours with frosts likely, then may start to turn a little milder through the afternoon, highs somewhere in the 7 to 10 C range.

OUTLOOK ... There are now signs that high pressure will build up over the region after Christmas Day and remain close to Ireland although with a tendency to reform further west. This is going to lead to some dry, perhaps mild at least near coasts, but nearly calm weather in contrast to what has become frequent this month. In that scenario, some places can develop fog or low cloud and stay rather cold for the entire day, and there can be some frosts. This may be how the colder weather expected in January begins to develop, from this "inversion" cold (if that develops under a cap of milder air aloft).

My local weather on Tuesday was damp and cool but not cold enough at 3 deg C for snow, just light rain mixing with sleet at times. There was a freak and damaging tornado reported down near Seattle WA in Port Orchard, and it appeared to be at least an EF-2. I have to say that probably nobody in the weather "business" was remotely expecting it, the dynamics were a bit on the sedate side of what is usually associated with a tornado, and that's not really a very likely location either. It could have been a waterspout transforming into a brief tornado, not sure if the cell was over water before unleashing. It was also a very low cloud base and cloud top situation for a tornado, but video and damage left behind pretty much remove any doubt. Houses were deroofed and if not demolished then certainly left in a state of considerable disrepair and large trees were brought down. No trace of that activity moved inland, if anything it has been calm here for most of the evening. But it goes to show that any remotely conducive weather situation can create a freak damaging wind, this disturbance was only about half as intense on the charts as any one of the past four storms to hit Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 20 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals in south and east, followed by more widespread showers, some rather heavy, but average amounts 5-8 mm, highs 7 to 9 C. Occasionally breezy, westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, in some exposed coastal areas.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming somewhat heavier in the south, 5 to 10 mm likely, cloudy with occasional showers further north. Lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, highs near 10 C. Some localized heavier rainfalls with complex frontal wave pattern, most likely near south coast in morning, then redeveloping further north in some central counties by evening. Total rainfalls about 5 to 15 mm.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, a few showers or occasional light rain, highs near 10 C. Some strong gusts possible near south coast, and possibility of a frontal boundary developing east-west through central Ireland, highs only 4 to 7 C north of that. Likely not quite cold enough for snow or sleet to develop except possibly on a few high summits in the north.

SUNDAY ... Showers, or intervals of light rain, highs near 9 C. Moderate southwest to west winds veering to northwest then north as the day progresses. Partial clearing by afternoon, then turning somewhat colder by evening.

MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Some rain may linger across the south for part of the day, but it should clear away by afternoon. The north is more likely to be dry all day, as winds turn slightly northeasterly then become light and variable as weak pressure systems drift past, followed by higher pressure by the night of 24th-25th. Quite cold by evening after highs of 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... A dry day is expected, with some scattered frost and mist greeting early risers, morning lows reaching -2 to +3 C, to be followed by some hazy sunshine where the mist dissipates. Although western counties and some coastal regions will become quite mild, a colder day may persist inland as an inversion develops and some places may have mist or low cloud all day. Highs therefore may be in a fairly large range from 6 to 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This higher pressure will hang around for several days, with mild southerly winds in western counties and near the south coast, possibly spreading more inland too eventually, but the 26th could also continue misty to foggy inland and therefore remain a bit chilly in places. Eventually, another weak frontal system will push this high back to the east and return some light rain in mild southwest winds. There is the caveat that a major change in pattern is expected at some point within one to three weeks as many signs are now pointing to a "stratospheric warming" event which is usually a precursor of high pressure further north, blocking and colder weather. Models may not give us all the details two or three weeks ahead of this change so while they continue to show a rather bland pattern into the new year, it's quite possible that reality will change that.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy but very mild, with highs reaching 7 C (that is considered very mild here). We have another strong Pacific storm approaching with wind and rain for Thursday, in fact severe winds predicted near the coasts. This is a much stronger system than the one that freakishly created the tornado on Tuesday but I'm betting this one won't do that. Another strong storm system is forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If there were more cold air in place this could be a heavy snowfall producer further north, but it's going to be too mild for snow except above 2,000 feet in the Blue Ridge Mountains and into central PA and parts of western NY. Heavy rain and strong south winds will hit NYC and New England by Friday. It could be as warm as 17 C for a brief period in those regions before turning colder over the weekend. This storm is heading for the west coast of Greenland and it may play a role in the pattern change expected fairly soon, as the very mild air heads up towards Greenland along with it.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy near the south coast, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, but these winds should ease later. Some scattered outbreaks of light rain but fairly dry overall this morning, then somewhat more widespread light rain in central regions by afternoon, only 3 to 7 mm further rainfall expected at most. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with some light rain, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some isolated showers or patchy light rain, highs 8 to 10 C, except 6 to 8 C in some parts of the north. Breezy at times, southwest to west 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming widespread and rather heavy at times, 10 to 15 mm likely in some southern and central counties, not as much further north. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest to west winds turning more northwesterly during the afternoon.

MONDAY ... Some partial clearing, turning a bit colder in north, also a few leftover showers will drift slowly north while dying out entirely by about early afternoon, hazy sunshine in some places by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Hazy or foggy during the morning, rather cold inland, lows -1 to +4 C. Increasing cloud during the day, some lingering fog or mist, but also some sunny breaks in east. Rain will approach the west coast, but it may not move very far inland, as winds remain moderate southerly during the afternoon near west coast. Highs 7 to 11 C (mildest near south and west coasts).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY 26th-27th will remain similar with high pressure to the east having some influence in Leinster and east Munster, keeping rain largely out in the western counties (or near the west coast at times), so a chance of it staying relatively dry in a good portion of the country, with light rain in the west about 70% likely, but amounts not very large. Winds southerly for most of this interval, 40 to 60 km/hr at times. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models keep churning out similar looking days with weak frontal systems, and no real return to the vigorous stormy pattern of last week, but some signs would suggest caution in going too far down the road as a pattern change could begin to develop in early January. Eventually it seems likely to turn significantly colder, but timing is uncertain, will say 10-15 January perhaps the most likely time for this change to set in (could be earlier or later by equal chances).

My local weather on Thursday was very windy from the south at times with rain that ended by mid-afternoon. We are expecting a return blast from the north later tonight as a cold front is moving through now, after highs near 4 C. This proved to be an intense winter storm system which produced wind damage around the Vancouver region with some gusts over 120 km/hr. It is rapidly weakening as it moves inland, meanwhile, lots of rain in eastern portions of the U.S. from a strong low moving north out of Georgia. This will continue all day Friday in most of the large cities on the eastern seaboard and up into the eastern Great Lakes region also.

Notes: The winter solstice occurs today at 22:24 hours (10:24 p.m.) and the full moon is timed for Saturday at 17:50 hours (5:50 p.m.).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 21 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy near the south coast, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, but these winds should ease later. Some scattered outbreaks of light rain but fairly dry overall this morning, then somewhat more widespread light rain in central regions by afternoon, only 3 to 7 mm further rainfall expected at most. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with some light rain, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some isolated showers or patchy light rain, highs 8 to 10 C, except 6 to 8 C in some parts of the north. Breezy at times, southwest to west 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming widespread and rather heavy at times, 10 to 15 mm likely in some southern and central counties, not as much further north. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest to west winds turning more northwesterly during the afternoon.

MONDAY ... Some partial clearing, turning a bit colder in north, also a few leftover showers will drift slowly north while dying out entirely by about early afternoon, hazy sunshine in some places by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Hazy or foggy during the morning, rather cold inland, lows -1 to +4 C. Increasing cloud during the day, some lingering fog or mist, but also some sunny breaks in east. Rain will approach the west coast, but it may not move very far inland, as winds remain moderate southerly during the afternoon near west coast. Highs 7 to 11 C (mildest near south and west coasts).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY 26th-27th will remain similar with high pressure to the east having some influence in Leinster and east Munster, keeping rain largely out in the western counties (or near the west coast at times), so a chance of it staying relatively dry in a good portion of the country, with light rain in the west about 70% likely, but amounts not very large. Winds southerly for most of this interval, 40 to 60 km/hr at times. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models keep churning out similar looking days with weak frontal systems, and no real return to the vigorous stormy pattern of last week, but some signs would suggest caution in going too far down the road as a pattern change could begin to develop in early January. Eventually it seems likely to turn significantly colder, but timing is uncertain, will say 10-15 January perhaps the most likely time for this change to set in (could be earlier or later by equal chances).

My local weather on Thursday was very windy from the south at times with rain that ended by mid-afternoon. We are expecting a return blast from the north later tonight as a cold front is moving through now, after highs near 4 C. This proved to be an intense winter storm system which produced wind damage around the Vancouver region with some gusts over 120 km/hr. It is rapidly weakening as it moves inland, meanwhile, lots of rain in eastern portions of the U.S. from a strong low moving north out of Georgia. This will continue all day Friday in most of the large cities on the eastern seaboard and up into the eastern Great Lakes region also.

Notes: The winter solstice occurs today at 22:24 hours (10:24 p.m.) and the full moon is timed for Saturday at 17:50 hours (5:50 p.m.).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 22 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy this morning, a few brief showers widely separated, then more overcast by afternoon, highs 7 to 11 C, coolest in north central counties. Moderate southwest breezes at times near south and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, becoming foggy after midnight, some light to moderate rain moving into western counties. Lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, foggy or misty, 10 to 20 mm rainfalls likely, some moderate southwest winds in the morning veering more to northwest by afternoon and evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud with some sunshine, more likely in north Leinster and Ulster, as leftover light rain tapers to drizzle before ending as mist or fog in some south central counties. Light winds, some northeast breezes at times in Ulster. Rather chilly in north, staying rather mild in the south. Lows -1 to +4 C, highs 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Fog or mist rather widespread in the morning, a few areas may be rather cold where skies remain clear, but lows will vary from near freezing to almost 10 C in some coastal areas, then daytime highs may struggle to reach 8 C inland but could top off around 12 C near west coast.

OUTLOOK ... High pressure looks set to remain in place over Britain and northern France all week until at least New Years, and Ireland will remain in a light southerly flow that will keep temperatures fairly mild for most, although with some risk of frost and fog developing in the east (as is also more likely for Britain under a slack wind gradient). Some rain will graze the west coast around 26th-27th but it may only make it a few miles past a Belmullet to Clifden line before dying out, so most will have extensive dry intervals of weather during the holiday period. Temperatures should be reasonably mild, probably very mild near west coast (12-14 C) but more variable inland and east coast due in part to the slack wind gradient that won't mix the air very efficiently during the day, so if the nights get rather cold that colder air could linger under low cloud or fog especially. You may find in fact that all of these conditions will be encountered within short distances, valleys are more prone to cold and low cloud lingering than coasts or higher terrain in these patterns.

There is also the background trend to consider that eventually, this stagnant high could swell up and start moving northwest in response to changes in the upper levels, and that could bring on a more widespread cold spell early in the new year. However, this may be delayed for a week or two, the widely predicted stratospheric events have not actually happened yet.

My local weather turned rather nice for a change, as Thursday's storm moved away by Friday morning, leaving us under sunny skies and moderate northwest winds, highs near 4 C. A somewhat colder air mass is settling in and some light snow seems likely around here on the weekend, with more rain and gusty winds on the coast. The east coast storm has moved through the inland northeast U.S. and is now passing east of Lake Ontario into western Quebec province on its way to Baffin Island eventually. Record high temperatures were widespread in the eastern U.S. (typically they were around 18-20 C and many of them eclipsed 1957 records). Weather buffs will recognize that 1957-58 was a very strong El Nino winter although also the strongest sunspot producing winter of modern times.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 23 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... One further interval of rain will develop across the west-central counties this morning and will drift to the southeast by mid-day, bringing another 5 to 10 mm of rain. Some clearing will develop gradually elsewhere, and in all areas by later afternoon, and it will become rather breezy at times from the northwest, with slowly falling temperatures as a result. Highs 8 to 11 C for most, 6 to 8 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Some isolated showers, or drizzle, with fog or mist rather widespread, turning quite cold in north and east, lows -1 to +3 C. Under overcast skies, rather mild in south and west, lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... A few sunny intervals will develop in the north and east, with mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers or patchy drizzle in the south and west, although here it will begin to clear eventually too. Highs 4 to 7 C north and east, but 8 to 11 C in south and west. Light winds becoming northeast then easterly.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... A misty or foggy start in many areas, and low cloud could persist for a good part of the morning before some hazy sunshine develops by afternoon. Quite mild except in a few parts of the inland east and north, highs generally 11 to 14 C but could be held down to 7 C in a few places by persistent low cloud. Light to moderate southerly winds. Some light rain could brush parts of northwest Mayo but otherwise mostly dry.

WEDNESDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Misty or hazy, some sun at times, mild. Isolated outbreaks of light rain in northwest. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... High pressure will remain the dominant weather control feature most of the time until beyond New Years, with just brief and weak frontal bands rippling through, around Friday 28th and Sunday 30th, each bringing a little light rain and moderate westerly winds. The high pressure will quickly redevelop after each of those episodes, and each day will bring somewhat lower temperatures both by day and overnight, but in the range of 8 to 11 C by day and 2 to 6 C overnight, with isolated frost possible eventually if skies clear. The high will not be totally overcast but will likely have more cloud than clear breaks, for most, with the best chance of sunshine in coastal west Munster and Connacht. Eventually, this rather slack weather pattern will break down as strong west to northwest winds develop in early January and much colder air will begin to push south around the 4th to 7th of January, with a slow decline in temperatures, reaching values like 4 or 5 C in the daytime and -3 C at night, and perhaps it won't just end that that modified form of wintry conditions, but guidance becomes rather "low confidence" after two weeks especially in this situation where a major pattern shift seems quite possible.

My local weather turned a lot colder on Saturday, with a daytime high of -4 C and some light snow developing by evening after a dry and partly cloudy day.

Christmas forecast schedule -- I hope to be able to update forecasts on almost the normal timetable, as we have no travel plans until after the 28th. We may have some guest forecasting near the end of the month. If you're checking out for the holidays, Merry Christmas, and if your absence will be prolonged, happy new year.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 24 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few brighter intervals may develop by afternoon, as rather extensive fog and mist will be slow to clear, and when they do so, higher cloud layers are over top anyway. Rather cold in Ulster and east Connacht, much of Leinster, but warming up gradually to reach about 7 or 8 C. Staying milder in Munster and south, west Connacht, light rain at times, but as this spreads back to the north, it will be dying out gradually too. Highs 10 to 12 C. Generally light winds from an easterly direction.

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog likely, most places should remain quite mild around 7 to 9 C, a few clear spots could drop several degrees below that.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... I hope you're not finding out it's Christmas Day from me, or the weather will be the least of your concerns. Anyway, it should be quite bland, rather mild and in some parts of the west drizzly at times, with highs near 13 C. Further east, mostly cloudy, the odd glimpse of the sun perhaps, and 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Mostly cloudy, mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue cloudy and mild, with some light rain advancing slowly inland from coastal Connacht, tending to break up once it moves inland. Some parts of the east and south may remain largely dry. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A very gradual trend towards colder weather appears likely as the high pressure rebuilds after weak fronts pass during the weekend of 29-30 December, with only slight changes in the weather as a result, then mixtures of cloud and sunshine as the high parks almost overhead by New Years, with a high barometric pressure expected near 1045 millibars. This may be a step towards a pattern change where the high drifts even further northwest and begins to interact with oncoming colder air from the northeast, promoting a colder regime after about the 4th of January. This transitional stage may feature some slight frosts returning in early January and highs only 5 to 8 C.

My local weather was very seasonal bringing a light but solid snow cover of 3 cms, which should stick around for the week as temperatures will be dropping below freezing. The high on Sunday was -2 C. The weather pattern has lost all of the bluster that it had last week, with weak systems pushing onto the west coast but running out of milder Pacific air as soon as they try to move inland. This is pushing most of the snow expected this coming week into the western U.S., then further east, it's a dry and seasonably cold pattern with very little happening, at least it makes it easy to travel over this holiday season.

Once again, merry Christmas to those still looking in, I will post some brief updates for the next few days. We aren't doing very much here until a few days after the 25th, when a brief trip to see family on the coast is planned, then should be back home just in time for New Years.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 25 December, 2018

Forecast update


Anyone reading the forecast today is probably a "hard core" weather enthusiast so I will make this a bit more of a blog than a forecast ...

... looking over the recent observations, Dublin is considerably colder than the rest of the country (4 deg at 0600h), and there may be some patchy dense fog in the region. The rest of the country will be overcast with mist and generally less dense fog except on some hills possibly, and it will be mild, 11 to 13 C. This sort of weather is likely to continue with little change through Thursday 27th, generally mild, sometimes foggy and in a few spots, drizzle will fall. Heavier rain is moving around the marine areas west of Ireland today and tomorrow, not likely to make much impact on land except possibly around northwest Mayo and coastal Donegal. By Friday, a more organized push of rain will move through the north and central counties but it will be losing ground as it moves east, with amounts of 5 to 10 mm the top end of what's likely to fall. This will lead to somewhat more broken overcast skies in more of a westerly wind by Saturday. Each day will continue rather mild with highs 9 to 12 C. By Sunday, another weak disturbance will drift through Ulster with light rain or drizzle in places, but then higher pressure will slowly build up again, reaching a peak around 2-4 January. As this happens, it's possible that the high will begin to chill especially if it's not entirely overcast, and this could lead to some patchy dense fog and heavy frost in places by the early part of January, then we can expect some sort of gradual change to a colder regime in northerly winds as this high appears destined to drift further west and promote the northerly flow.

My local weather on Monday has been overcast, we ended up with 10 cms of snow on the ground and a few flakes drifting down at times but no added depth as a result, and our temperatures are close to -4 C.

Hope you're having an enjoyable Christmas Day and look for an update tomorrow morning.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 26 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, mild. Some mist or fog in a few places and also a bit of drizzle or light rain near northwest coast. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist developing, generally quite mild, lows 7 to 10 C. A few locations inland east could drop a few degrees below that range if skies cleared.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, mild. Some rain moving into north and west by evening. Highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, as showers move east, somewhat breezy, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The mild spell will begin to break down around or shortly after New Years, as high pressure rebuilds and repositions itself further north. This could allow for clearing skies which will certainly make the nights a lot colder (as they are presently under the high in France and Germany). Days would also be cooler than this current mild spell. Then there are some mixed signs of colder air still moving south in the first week to ten days of January.

My local weather remained cloudy and rather cold (I think, never went outside, but the snow hasn't melted) ... at around -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 27 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Misty with some lingering fog, also the occasional brighter interval especially near some coasts. Light rain off the west coast will begin to overspread north Connacht and west Ulster this afternoon and evening, amounts slight (2 to 5 mm by morning). Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, otherwise foggy or misty, mild. Lows 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild. Highs 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning, some outbreaks of light rain mostly in north, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Around New Years Eve into early January, the European high will probably begin to swell up and reposition near Scotland with an extension into Greenland. This will likely have the effect of dropping temperatures gradually in Ireland, until some slight frosts begin to occur under partly clear skies at night, and daytime highs fall to about 7 C. Models are then divided on what happens next, some indicating this modified cold will continue, some suggesting a deeper cold on northeast winds, and one source saying the episode will be brief and the Atlantic will resume control. With the upper levels likely to undergo profound changes soon, anything is possible, would at least prepare for the possibility of more significant cold weather than the early transitional period, but timing it is a challenge. The interval 4 to 7 January is about the earliest it might appear, but 7 to 15 January probably more likely.

My local weather has been remarkably quiet recently, just overcast with nothing much happening within hundreds of miles, as the Pacific (our version of the Atlantic, bigger with mighty big muscles at times) has taken a nap. For this location and time of year, it's not particularly cold but just cold enough to preserve our thin snow cover at 3-5 cm. (high of about 0.5 C). Very cold air has been locked up in the high arctic for the time being, -45 C readings at some places in the northern arctic islands. But not much of that seems inclined to head south at this point.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 28 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks developing mid-day and afternoon, very mild. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, some light rain in parts of the north, very mild. Lows 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks in south, a few more stray showers crossing north later. Highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, mild. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, colder. Morning lows 2 to 5 C and afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. At midnight (New Years' Eve) it seems likely to be dry, partly cloudy, and rather cold, around 4 or 5 C.

TUESDAY (New Years Day) ... Partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... We are still seeing some disagreement between the models used for guidance, with some suggestions of the mild spell redeveloping after the two or three day interruption around New Years, others saying that cold might actually hang around and deepen gradually, seems to be "on a knife edge" so to speak and waiting for possible major changes in the upper atmosphere to decide that trend. If it stays mild, it seems also likely to get quite windy at times; if it were to remain cold, then probably not as windy. Also there would definitely be more rain with the mild option, and chances for sleet or snow eventually with the cold, but even in the mild and windy scenario there could be brief colder turns after cold fronts pass.

My local weather remained quiet, mostly cloudy with a high of about -1 C. Not sure how my schedule is going to go from now to New Years' Eve, if I don't manage to post updates, perhaps somebody else will take a turn, and in any case, all the best for New Years.

200motels

The next couple of days will be cloudy but mild for the time of year with temperatures around 10 to 11 C. From New Year’s Day it will get cooler with the possibility of patchy night time frosts as high pressure builds.

A lot of speculation about a split in the polar vortex in the coming week and the models don’t handle a SSW very well. It could get even colder the following week with a easterly flow but that’s a good bit out at the moment. MT might have an update on this in the coming days anyway a happy new year to everyone on the weather forum.

sryanbruen

Monday, 31 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... With high pressure continuing to remain stubborn to the south, it will be a cloudy and settled end to 2018 as the winds veer from a southwesterly direction on the northern flank of the high. These winds will be fairly moderate but they will freshen at times close to northern and northwestern coasts as a cold front sinks southwards from the north of Scotland. This front will bring patchy outbreaks of rain to the north of the country later in the day and the thick cloud in some areas could produce mist and drizzle especially out west. Maximum temperatures relatively close to average for the end of December with 7-10c, coolest in the south closest to the lighter winds.

TONIGHT ..... Staying dry tonight for the majority but fairly mild as the westerly winds continue whilst at the same time, the cold front tries to sink southwards and clip the eastern side of the country. This front will attempt to dissipate and clear overnight and becomes a band of cloud by early hours of New Year's Day but there could be some drizzle for places in Ulster and northern Leinster. Minimum temperatures getting down to 5-8c for most but could drop to 2 or 3c by morning in Ulster where skies are likely to be clearer behind the front.

NEW YEAR'S DAY ..... Some further cloud likely to linger around the midlands but otherwise, it will be a brighter day than many have had recently with winds veering northwesterly in direction and variable amounts of sunshine. Maximum temperatures around 5 or 6c in the north whilst 10c in the southwest. The cloud will push into the south and southwest parts of the country later in the day and as a result, it will be frost free in these regions. However, skies will be clear elsewhere and cause quite a widespread air frost. Minimum temperatures could get as low as -2 or -3c in the north and east with very calm winds.

WEDNESDAY ..... Cloud over Munster and some parts of Connacht will attempt to clear during parts of Wednesday allowing some sunny spells to occur here. Elsewhere, it is likely to be a similar day to New Year's Day with variable amounts of sunshine and a much cooler day than recently with maximum temperatures in the sunny spells in the north and east only ranging between 4-6c whilst further south and west around 7 or 8c. Clear skies resulting in air frost overnight into Thursday in the north and east as minimum temperatures drop below freezing but frost free out west and in the south with more cloud around.

THURSDAY ..... Thursday is likely to be a cloudier day all in all with mostly cloudy conditions returning for most places as the wind veers to a southeasterly direction though there still will be some sunny intervals here and there, mainly in the north. Maximum temperatures remaining fairly cool around 4 to 8c. Frost possible again overnight into Friday up to the north and east.

FRIDAY ..... High pressure continues to persist bringing a mix of cloud and sunny spells over the country and relatively cool temperatures though not exceptionally so with values in the 4 to 8c range. The risk of frost overnight remains in the north and east due to the light winds and any clear skies.

I hope you all have a happy New Year's Eve!

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


Thanks to 200motels and sryanbruen for pitching in with some forecasts, I was away from home base and found rather limited access to the internet, but in any case we returned home and I had a look over the course of the evening while seeing in the new year. Will return to more comprehensive forecasts tomorrow, for now we'll leave it at this ...

Mild and dry weather will continue for several more days although with a somewhat colder trend in parts of Ulster and Leinster as it will turn several degrees colder in most of Britain with the high pressure closer to the Irish Sea than it was most of last week (in France). So while the west is likely to continue to see temperatures steady in the 8 to 11 C range, the east may find nights a bit colder and daytime readings down a degree or two. That may reverse itself gradually over the last few days of the week and the weekend. After that, it seems to be anybody's guess with two major models having completely different outlooks on what happens to this high after about the 5th or 6th of January. It may hang around for another week and continue the mild, dry spell, or it may get shoved out to the west by advancing colder air building west from central Europe (that according to the European model this morning). The chances of this much colder air reaching Britain appear quite good, for Ireland perhaps more like a 50-50 proposition and in the time frame of the 7th to 10th, but there's nothing very certain about any of these outcomes, and with the guidance wobbling rather like many of us at New Years, confidence is low to say the least.

The near term seems much more settled and I hope you all have a great year in 2019.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mostly in north and east, patchy drizzle from low cloud or fog in parts of south and west, some isolated dense fog may reduce visibility near higher terrain in southwest. Light southeast winds or calm. Highs generally 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with some clear patches, drizzle or fog in some parts of south and west, lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY to the WEEKEND ... Little change, similar weather conditions expected each day and overnight period. The exact details of where it clears out, who sees some drizzle or fog, may change but almost in a random way from one day to the next. There will be a tendency for the east and north to be colder but there again, if it cleared further west then it could cool down briefly there too. Not much wind or rain is likely in this pattern, but a slight chance of 2 to 5 mm rainfalls by the weekend in the north.

OUTLOOK ... This weather pattern is really stuck with nowhere to go as the circulation has slowed to a crawl over western Europe. Much colder air is moving south into central and eastern Europe. This sets up a difficult forecast situation because the current stagnant air mass could hang in for anywhere from four to ten days (or in my personal nightmare longer), but if it should ever shift west, it would open the door for the colder air to move in from north, northeast or east depending on the details, and then it might turn considerably colder. That could happen by about the 10th or be delayed to 15th or even longer, nobody really knows for sure and so most of the discussion among forecasters concerns what's happening in the stratosphere which could hold the key to what eventually happens at the lower levels.

Various models show little consistency from day to day and they have been taking turns showing colder or milder outcomes. This is the most difficult type of weather to forecast a week or two ahead, when a slight change could mean a large shift in temperatures for some regions. It is quite possible that colder air will move into some parts of Britain while not making it as far as Ireland, at least in some early stages of this eventual colder spell, so we'll be keeping an eye on it throughout the weather forum. I am trying to peer over the shoulders of as many people as I can to get a sense of the overall thinking in the weather community, but I find that everyone is rather confused by this disconnect between upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, waiting for "the other shoe to drop" when the lower levels respond in some way similar to what happened last (late) February. And as we know, when that shoe drops, it can be a boot load of snow. I would hesitate to try to time this but eventually there seems very likely to be an outbreak of very cold air on the sort of trajectory that might bring heavy snow to eastern counties, and perhaps at times to northern counties. This has been the long-range forecast all along, of course, but it does seem like a reasonable bet although certainly not "carved in stone" since some westward motion of the atmosphere is required.

My local weather has been quite cold, while away at the coast, about 10-15 cms of snow fell here (it rained hard during that event where we were), and that has formed a partially frozen crust due to temperatures generally in the -6 to -2 C range day and night. Further east, it's very cold across the Great Lakes region, trending to more average but dry cool conditions on the Atlantic seaboard, and there is very little active weather in North America as well at the present time. A fairly vigorous storm hit the eastern Canadian provinces but that's drifting away into the Labrador Sea today.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, those more likely in north and east. Patchy drizzle but little if any accumulation, in some parts of south and west. Highs 6 to 10 C, mildest in Kerry, coldest in east Ulster and north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks, rather cold, lows 2 to 5 C, some patchy ground frost where skies clear.

FRIDAY ... Little change, cloudy with a few breaks, highs 7 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, a little light rain crossing parts of the north, becoming a little more breezy than it has been, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy, showers ending. Winds westerly to northwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly colder again during the first half of next week, mostly dry, and moderate northerly winds at times. There are growing signs of even colder weather to follow by about the weekend of 13th-14th, so we will try to flesh that out in coming days. Guidance is still rather scattered but there has been a trend in the past day towards a colder outcome. Many in the weather community seem to feel that the models will take time to adjust to the information already known about the stratospheric warming (which spiked recently at values similar to the event leading into the 28 Feb-2 March episode last winter). The delay in recognition may be ending, but then there's the delay of response of the lower atmosphere to that change already logged by the upper levels. There is already a good source of colder air available and a strong northerly flow across the Baltic into Poland and eastern Germany but it may take a reload of that further west to get Britain and then Ireland into the game. The European model is showing a scenario this morning similar to what I mentioned yesterday, cold for southern Britain that only grazes Ireland indirectly at first (a week from now) but that to be followed by much stronger cold air masses around the 13th and 14th. We continue to watch but in the meanwhile, this calm, dry weather is at least very good for getting things done outside after all the rain in November and December.

My local weather was overcast with light snow and temperatures near -2 C. We are expecting a lot of snow here over the next five days as the Pacific wakes up again but with the jet stream now in a shallow trough near the west coast. This will translate into heavy rain at sea level there, but mountain passes are expected to see 50 cm snowfalls almost on a daily basis (about 10 cm a day where I live, shovel ready).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, light winds, highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, risk of frost or dense fog patches forming (inland southeast most likely), lows -1 to +5 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty drizzle in parts of northwest, highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, some light rain developing in northwest by afternoon or evening, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy, even windy for a change in coastal north (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr), passing showers mostly in north, amounts light, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy, colder, winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr in some parts of north and east, lows near 3 C and highs about 6 or 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold, but dry, most of next week, perhaps one day of slightly milder temperatures around Friday then a second cold front will bring in slightly colder air around the weekend of 12th-13th. Some guidance is suggesting a turn towards very cold temperatures but this remains a rather low confidence forecast at this point.

My local weather turned a bit milder after some wet snow and light rain, quite windy at times, and highs near 2 C. Heavy rain is falling in coastal regions of B.C. and Washington state, with heavy mountain snowfalls spreading inland towards us.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in central and northern counties. Rather cold, except in coastal south and west. Highs generally 5 to 9 C, near 10 C for those coastal regions.

TONIGHT ... Light rain or drizzle in parts of the north and west, overcast but dry elsewhere, lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, slight chance of drizzle or light rain in west but generally dry, highs 7 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, isolated showers further south, winds west veering to north-northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Rather windy in east, cold, but generally dry, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY of next week will see another visit from the high after it gets pushed aside briefly by this cold spell, but it should be on its last legs by then. So a few more days later next week of overcast skies, light to moderate winds and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages from about Saturday 12th to Tuesday 15th, some strong west to northwest winds at times, temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range but possibly heading lower after 14th. There are somewhat mixed signs of how strong this cold outbreak will be, but the general theme seems to be "slowly but surely" it will be turning much colder. Snow may be in the picture by about the 15th. In the pattern expected to develop, this snow would likely be heaviest in Connacht and Ulster initially, rather than being a Leinster event from Irish Sea streamers, but eventually winds could turn further through north to northeast as we get later into the month.

My local weather turned quite mild between two frontal systems and the high was about 7 C, melting quite a bit of the 10-15 cm snow cover we had yesterday. Expecting some sleet or wet snow to develop late today and Sunday as another storm moves inland from the coast.

Note: New moon is timed for 0129h Sunday 6th (tonight).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some light rain in west and north but generally dry in south and east, highs 7 to 11 C. Moderate southwest winds will develop in northwest coastal counties.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, intervals of light rain, moderate southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, isolated showers further south, winds west veering to north-northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Temperatures will likely fall gradually in northern counties after mid-day.

TUESDAY ... Rather windy in east, cold, but generally dry, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain in north, but dry in south, rather cold. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be back to the dull, milder and nearly calm conditions as the high makes its last stand (we hope). Lows around 4 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Increasingly unsettled from next weekend on, with colder days at times, with stronger winds developing from west to northwest bringing a risk of wintry showers especially on higher terrain in north. The longer range guidance continues to offer colder patterns with temperatures closer to freezing, but nothing too severe showing up on charts yet, although a few occasions look quite windy and raw.

My local weather remained rather calm and mild as a weak Pacific low edges closer, bringing mixed sleety precipitation along for our Sunday weather. The high on Saturday was close to 5 C, a bit above normal for here.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some light rain at times in north, isolated showers south and central counties, anything heavier will be quite brief and amounts 2 to 5 mm at most. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr veering to northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, quite cold, some frost possible in north and east. Lows -1 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and cold, winds diminishing but remaining northwest to north 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, still rather cold except in southwest. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see a return to dull, mild and less windy weather although this time southwest winds will continue rather strong in parts of the north. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy, turning slightly colder next weekend, and possibly colder still by Monday or Tuesday, as winds turn more to the northwest. Some outbreaks of rain with fast-moving fronts. Highs near 10 C at first, then 4 to 7 C.

My local weather on Sunday started out quite blustery with sleet at times, then cleared up later, highs near 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing in north and east, moderate northwest to north winds adding a rather cold feel although temperatures just slightly down from recent days at 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals north and east, lows -1 to +3 C with patchy frost inland, but staying rather cloudy in south and west, lows about 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, rather cold in north and east, somewhat milder in south and west with isolated showers or patchy drizzle, light winds. Highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy and breezy with little if any precipitation and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Staying around 10 degrees over the weekend with moderate westerly winds and occasional rain in the north, staying dry in parts of the south. Somewhat colder next week with the risk of a much colder spell developing (guidance continues to be all over the place as models are struggling to handle the stratospheric warming episode that happened a few days ago). We are in a bit of a watch and wait holding pattern and the range of possible outcomes is quite large.

My local weather featured some light snow at mid-day otherwise cloudy but dry and highs near 1 C. We may get a rare sunny day on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers or patchy drizzle, in light northerly breezes (backing to westerly near west coast later). Rather cold especially in Ulster and Leinster. Highs will range from 6 C near east coast and in most of Ulster, to 10 C in Kerry and some other coastal areas of south and west.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or drizzle, cool. Lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest winds returning (40-60 km/hr in coastal north and west). Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather windy at times, outbreaks of rain (5 mm could fall), and temperatures steady 9 to 11 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Possibly quite unsettled and windy, with a growing risk of colder weather developing from the north or northeast at some point between Thursday 17th and Monday 21st. Temperatures will hang on near 8 C until this change occurs and could then fall sharply. As guidance is still very uneven on this transition, it's a question of probability of when the transition will begin. It could take longer than ten days but I believe it will happen before we reach the end of the following week. When the colder spell begins, it could last quite a while so be prepared for that possibility. At some point in the next two weeks to a month, a disruptive cold and snow event seems fairly likely. We can't really begin to guess how disruptive until the details show up on charts, every cold spell has its own quirks and singularities. Some are rather dry and produce only marginal amounts of snow (like March 2013 for example). Others rapidly produce large quantities of snow (like December 2010 and last February into early March). I would say the period from 24 January to 10 February is the highest risk period at the pace of change currently. Change is already beginning to show up in North America with eastern regions facing a sharp colder trend. The first signs of colder weather on any guidance show up around Friday 18th so that is probably the earliest that any wintry weather could strike, perhaps we could say the probability starts around 10% there and increases by about 5% a day until it levels off around 70% by 1st of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, quite cold and a very light snow turned heavier by late afternoon, so we now have 3 cms on the ground and more gradually accumulating, with freezing drizzle mixing in, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Once this moves through, we are moving back into milder weather as central and eastern regions turn sharply colder. A possible snowstorm for the Washington D.C. region looms for this weekend but this storm will be coming together out of just some dry cloud formations west of Mexico's Baja peninsula at the present time (a front spinning off the Pacific storm hitting further north). The flow is about to buckle allowing much colder air to sink south into the Great Lakes region, then it will be held in place there as storms rotate around from the remnants of Pacific storms until they reach Greenland. What we need to see for Ireland and Britain to turn colder will be for the Greenland region to develop higher pressures at all levels steering these storms back into the Canadian arctic, and allowing higher pressure near the north pole to slide south into the vacuum left by the rise in pressures near Iceland. This will force the persistent high near Ireland and northwest France to push west to avoid being battered by the southward moving arctic jet stream. This scenario keeps appearing on 10-15 day time scales on various models and will become a big deal for the weather when it finally begins to settle into shorter time frames that are more reliable (and then actually happens).