Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

sryanbruen

Friday, 17 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Light rain will become widespread this morning though could become heavier for a time up north where it will be persistent. This will not be the case further south where brighter spells are likely especially during the afternoon and evening as the rain is patchiest here. Fairly humid day with temperatures not far from average for the time of year with maximums ranging from 16-20c. The wind will be from a southwesterly direction and gusty at that.

TONIGHT ..... Cloudy, mild and humid with persistent rain likely to continue in the north whilst drizzle for most other places but the south will become largely dry. Minimum temperatures holding up in the 13-16c range.

SATURDAY ..... Sticky and humid. Drier with some sunny spells further south and east where temperatures are likely to be within the 20s, could reach 24 or 25c in the southeast. Cloudy elsewhere with some rain at times, mainly light for much of the day but becoming persistent later on as the remnants of subtropical storm Ernesto makes its way towards Ireland. Maximum temperatures here mainly in the high teens. This will give off to quite a wet Saturday night with widespread rain. 24-hour rainfall totals up to Sunday afternoon amounting to around 5-25mm, heaviest in the southwest and mid-west, lightest up north to Northern Ireland and southern coastlines. Winds will freshen to gusty south to southwesterly. Very humid Saturday night again but perhaps even more uncomfortable than Friday night.

From Met Éireann:

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

High intensity rainfall over a relatively short period of time for many areas on Saturday night associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Totals up to 20mm could occur quite widely with higher falls locally. The situation will continue to be monitored.

Issued: Friday 17 August 2018 12:00

Valid from Saturday 18 August 2018 20:00 to Sunday 19 August 2018 08:00

SUNDAY ..... The last of the rain will clear the east during the morning leaving sunnier and drier conditions behind for most but some light showers will develop too. Staying mild and humid with temperatures ranging from 17-22c.

MONDAY ..... Scattered showers and some sunny spells too, best in the east. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17-22c again.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 18 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Mostly dry but cloudy today with quite a humid, tropical feel to the weather. Some light rain will affect the north and northwest. Sunny intervals in the southeast and east. The rain will begin to get heavy during the evening as the remnants of Ernesto push into Ireland. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17-25c in moderate southwesterly winds, becoming gusty later on.

TONIGHT ..... As the remnants of Ernesto push in, the rain will get heavier and quite persistent for a time this evening and tonight. Overnight, there have been some northward corrections on the main track of the low so it now looks like it will push through mainly Connacht and Ulster where rainfall totals could exceed 15mm for a large area. This rain is likely to fall in a short space of time so flooding is possible. Rain not looking like amounting to much further south and east as the jet stream takes the rain northwards. It will be a bit of a wild night though with gusty south to southwesterly winds. These winds will ease once the rain clears into Sunday. Very mild with minimum temperatures only getting down to 15-17c.

SUNDAY ..... Humid with sunny intervals especially in the east but mostly cloudy for the majority of the country though dry with the exception of a few scattered showers. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17 to 23c in light westerly breezes.

MONDAY ..... Another warm and humid day likely with sunny spells, again especially in the east but cloud will be persistent for a lot of places. Some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle likely out west. Winds veering southwesterly with maximum temperatures ranging from 17-23c.

TUESDAY ..... Rain is likely to reach the west by the afternoon which will introduce cooler air for all by the night but the daytime itself will be similar to the preceding few with sunny spells possible in the east though generally cloudy, warm and humid. Maximum temperatures ranging from 16-22c.

OUTLOOK ..... There has been some consistency now in the model output for mid-week onwards. The likely scenario is for a dramatic cool down with cooler air from the north Atlantic. Maximum temperatures will struggle to get above the mid to high teens but on the brighter side, excuse the bad pun, winds will be light and the weather will be drier and sunnier for the majority. Nightime temperatures would come as a real shock to the system after the nights you will experience from Saturday to Monday this week, with them going well below average if the guidance is correct by the weekend.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 19 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ..... Mostly cloudy for the majority today especially out west but some sunny spells will develop after this morning for a time more widely particularly in the east. Humid and warm day with maximum temperatures ranging from 17-25c in light to moderate westerly winds.

TONIGHT ..... Cloudy and mild night with patches of mist and fog forming. Some drizzle is likely to occur overnight, mainly in the northwest. Minimum temperatures ranging from 12-16c.

MONDAY ..... Mainly cloudy and misty conditions with the chance of drizzle continue into Monday. Some sunny spells possible in the south and east. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17-22c.

TUESDAY ..... Outbreaks of rain will push into the northwest and spread southeastwards by the latter part of the day introducing cooler conditions overnight but the day itself will be another mostly cloudy, warm and humid day. Maximum temperatures ranging from 17-24c with winds veering to a southwesterly and freshening.

WEDNESDAY ..... Cloud and some light rain may hold on in the south and east during the early part of the day though timings are to be revealed but the rain will have cleared the west by Tuesday night leaving brighter and drier conditions here. It will be cooler and fresher behind the rain and cloud too. Maximum temperatures ranging from 15-20c.

OUTLOOK ..... The latest guidance shows this fresher and cooler interlude will be similar to the past few August has given in that it will be temporary before a mild, humid southwesterly takes over again by the last week of August. Until then, Wednesday to next weekend will be cool and brighter though showers could form later this week. Nightime temperatures would widely be getting down to single figures, maybe even as much as a 10 degree drop from yesterday night or the next few's minimum temperatures.

sryanbruen

Monday, 20 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Today will be my last forecast here and man what a rollercoaster it has been in the past month with all the uncertainty. It has been great serving you guys. I hope M.T. has an easier time forecasting though than I have and that the outlook will become more certain for him. I also hope M.T. has enjoyed his well deserved holiday. Welcome back M.T.

TODAY ..... Warm and humid today with mostly cloudy conditions. Some patches of fog or mist and outbreaks of drizzle, mainly in the west, are likely to occur. Sunny spells are possible especially later in the day towards the south and east. Winds variable in direction with maximum temperatures ranging from 17-22c.

TONIGHT ..... Continuing warm and humid with mainly misty or cloudy conditions. Minimum temperatures only dropping to around 13-16c with winds veering to a southerly direction.

TUESDAY ..... Further cloudy conditions with patches of drizzle or mist for most of the day though more persistent rain will spread from the west later. Some sunny spells to the east and southeast where maximum temperatures could be reaching 24 or 25c if the sunshine does come out, whilst more generally ranging from 17-23c. South to southwesterly winds will freshen as the day goes on.

WEDNESDAY ..... The last of the rain and mist will clear the east through early Wednesday and drier, brighter weather will spread from the west behind. Maximum temperatures down on previous days only ranging from 15-20c.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY ..... Cooler again with maximum temperatures this time only ranging from 14-18c. Sunshine and scattered showers, some likely to be heavy. Fresh northwesterly winds will give off to quite cool nights than of late with values widely getting into the single figures. In rural areas, minimum temperatures could only be reaching 4-6c by this time. Winter's slowly creeping in!

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


Back at home base after a month on the road, many thanks to sryanbruen for maintaining the forecast thread, I've mentioned to him that he is always welcome to post updates or thoughts on any time scale in the days to come. Eventually I will post a few pictures somewhere on the weather forum but as for monsoon type storms those were limited to two weak events during our month in the southwest, I think we may have had a total of ten minutes of rain in the entire journey. Many forest fires have developed especially up here in western Canada and there was the major fire in northern California -- saw some heavy smoke layers from that in its early stages when we came within 200 kms of it on 27 July but after that we only had to deal with small amounts of localized smoke and a lot of the time we had clear blue skies, great for night-time stargazing and Perseid meteors, although those proved rather infrequent this year. So, on to the forecast which is basically a continuation of what you read here yesterday ...

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals and quite warm in the southeast and east, highs 23 to 26 C. More cloud likely in southwest, west, north central and further north, although the occasional sunny break possible, reasonably warm also at 20 to 23 C. Moderate southwesterly winds will develop by afternoon reaching 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times will extend from the northwest early evening to most other parts of Ireland during the night with a cold front making steady progress southeast, but temperatures will remain quite mild at 13 to 16 C. About 5 mm of rain on average, 10 mm locally in some north central counties.

WEDNESDAY ... The rain will taper to showers in the east and south by mid-morning and sunny spells will follow from the west, with some longer sunny intervals for parts of the midlands, west and north. Becoming partly sunny in the south and east by afternoon also, and highs generally 18 to 20 C. Winds moderate westerly at times, 30 to 50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and rather cool by this summer's standards, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 15 or 16 C. Some passing showers, winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, rainfalls about 2 or 3 mm on average.

FRIDAY ... Some intervals of light rain, breezy and continued rather cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny at times, after a quite chilly overnight low of 3 to 7 C, highs reaching 16 to 18 C. Light winds becoming southerly by evening in western counties.

SUNDAY ... It appears likely that rain will develop but timing somewhat uncertain, could be fairly prolonged in parts of the west and north, highs 15 to 17 C. Moderate and perhaps strong at times southerly winds developing veering westerly by the overnight hours into Monday, then winds easing slowly on Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Most guidance suggests a pleasant if somewhat autumnal spell with high pressure building up during the week, would expect some quite cool nights and reasonably warm days with light winds generally after they settle down on Monday.

My own local weather upon returning was (as we have endured the past four days in Alberta and southeast BC) very smoky despite generally clear skies, and highs near 24 C. Tonight the skies are hazy enough that only the moon and Mars can be seen, even though other than the forest fire smoke, skies are otherwise clear. We are in no immediate danger from close wildfires here, but there are two underway to our east fairly close to us, however most of our smoke is probably coming from fires about 100 to 200 kms west of here.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The rain now moving into Leinster will taper to showers in the east and south by mid-morning and sunny spells will follow from the west, with some longer sunny intervals for parts of the midlands, west and north. Becoming partly sunny in the south and east by afternoon also, and highs generally 18 to 20 C. Winds moderate westerly at times, 30 to 50 km/hr. About 5 to 10 mm of rain likely in parts of the east and southeast today, that amount has fallen further west and will soon be ending where it has not already done so.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, breezy and rather cool, lows 7 to 9 C. Rain will develop towards morning in the northwest.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and rather cool by this summer's standards, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 15 or 16 C. Some passing showers, heavier in parts of the inland north, with winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, rainfalls about 2 or 3 mm on average but possibly 5 to 8 mm in parts of south Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Some intervals of light rain, breezy and continued rather cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny at times, after a quite chilly overnight low of 3 to 7 C, highs reaching 16 to 18 C. Light winds becoming southerly by evening in western counties.

SUNDAY ... It appears likely that rain will develop during the early morning across the west, extending gradually to the east by mid-day, and it could be fairly prolonged in parts of the west and north, highs 15 to 17 C. Moderate and perhaps strong at times southerly winds developing veering westerly by the overnight hours into Monday, then winds easing slowly on Monday. About 10 to 15 mm rainfall potential.

MONDAY ... Breezy, some passing showers, cool, highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers mainly in northern counties, highs near 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat improved for mid-week (29-30 Aug) with sunny spells and highs 18 to 20 C. Another band of rain is expected by the end of the week (and month) on Friday 31st, possibly quite heavy in places, with highs 18 to 20 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was very smoky with visibility reduced to 1/8 mile and a strong smell of fires, otherwise a clear to partly cloudy air mass with highs near 25 C. I have posted a few pictures from my recent travels in the weather pictures sub-forum.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy showers this morning in Ulster and parts of north Leinster will end with a few brief sunny breaks before another round of showers, not quite as heavy, moves in to north Connacht and west Ulster mid-day and then across Ulster and north Leinster again. Total rainfalls here will be 10 to 20 mm. Further south, a few showers likely in central counties with sunny breaks, gusty westerly winds at times, and total rainfalls about 5 mm. In the south, partly cloudy with only isolated showers, some places dry, and moderate westerly winds. Highs will range from near 14 C in the north to near 18 C in the south.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, cool, a few more showers continuing, lows 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or intervals of light rain, once again likely to be heavier in the north, 3 to 7 mm rainfalls and highs 14 to 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Early morning quite cool with lows 3 to 7 C. Clear intervals with increasing cloud by afternoon in the west, best of the sunshine likely to be in the southeast. Highs 14 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rainfalls in the west, 10 to 15 mm, gradual clearing later in the day, as the rain pushes further east. Even there, most of the 10 to 15 mm rainfalls expected will be done by early afternoon with just isolated showers in a westerly flow, morning lows about 9 or 10 C and afternoon highs 13 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer, highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers, breezy, highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, gradual clearing, highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY (31st) ... Showers or intervals of rain, highs near 20 C.

The weekend of 1-2 September is looking rather unsettled this far out, with near normal temperatures.

My local weather continues warm but very smoky from various forest fires around the region, visibility at times was under 0.5 km. The high was around 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Showers or intervals of light rain, once again likely to be heavier in the north, 3 to 7 mm rainfalls and highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Widespread clearing, quite cool with lows 4 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals morning and mid-day, with increasing cloud by afternoon in the west, best of the sunshine likely to be in the south. A few showers at times in central Ulster may spread to north Leinster by late afternoon. Rapid increase in cloud leading to rain at times by late evening in western counties. Highs 14 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rainfalls in the west, 10 to 15 mm, gradual clearing later in the day, as the rain pushes further east. Even there, most of the 10 to 15 mm rainfalls expected will be done by early afternoon with just isolated showers in a westerly flow, morning lows about 9 or 10 C and afternoon highs 14 to 19 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued sunny east and south, highs near 21 C, showers, breezy for west and north, highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, gradual clearing, highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY (31st) ... Sunny, with increasing cloud leading to late afternoon or evening showers, highs 19 to 22 C.

The weekend of 1-2 September is looking rather unsettled for Saturday then sunny by Sunday, with more rain arriving on Monday 3rd into Tuesday 4th, with near normal temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was once again very murky due to local smoke under otherwise partly cloudy skies, highs near 24 C. We are hoping for slight improvements in this poor air quality situation as fresher northwest winds develop after a weak cold front that might create brief showers by mid-day Friday, but it could be two or three weeks before we get back to more normal skies due to the widespread nature of the fires in the province at present time.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals morning and mid-day, with increasing cloud by afternoon in the west, best of the sunshine likely to be in the south. A few showers at times in central Ulster may spread to north Leinster by late afternoon. Rapid increase in cloud leading to rain at times by late evening in western counties. Highs 14 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may be briefly heavy moving across the country during the overnight hours, then tapering off to showers or drizzle in the west by morning. About 10 to 15 mm is likely. Lows 9 to 12 C, and moderate southerly winds veering to west-southwest 40-60 km/hr by morning in the west. Foggy by morning in the east as rain continues there.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rainfalls in the west, 10 to 15 mm, gradual clearing later in the day, as the rain pushes further east. Even there, most of the 10 to 15 mm rainfalls expected will be done by early afternoon with just isolated showers in a westerly flow, morning lows about 9 to 12 C and afternoon highs 14 to 19 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, breezy especially north of the midlands, and becoming a bit warmer, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued sunny east and south, highs near 21 C, showers, breezy for west and north, highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers ending, gradual clearing, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C. Winds westerly 30 to 50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows 5 to 9 C, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY (31st) ... Sunny, with increasing cloud leading to isolated late afternoon or evening showers mostly for northwestern counties, lows near 8 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

The weekend of 1-2 September is now looking improved, the rather unsettled weather for Saturday may be confined largely to Ulster, and then generally sunny by Sunday, with more rain possible in the north but with the possibility of the warmer and dry spell continuing in the south, highs 17 C north to 23 C south. Some guidance delays this warm and dry interval to the early part of the following week so there is some uncertainty involved.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with smoke haze and gusty northerly winds at times, with slowly falling temperatures all day, starting around 23 C late morning and ending up near 12 C at 11 p.m., it will now be rather cool for a few days with the smoke perhaps clearing at times, depending on how local fire suppression efforts turn out (there is a rather large fire just across our local lake and about 15 kms northwest of here, not much danger of it spreading towards us thankfully, and likely to burn itself out in a wilderness region over that way.)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... It will take most of the morning for the rain to clear the east coast, and the final stages will produce some brief heavy showers or thunderstorms across central counties. Eventually, with winds veering steadily to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, some clearing will take place and the evening may be the best part of the day with highs by later afternoon reaching 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, breezy, lows near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy, highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Some sunshine in east and south, a weak frontal band will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to parts of west and north. Lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain at times by late in the day in west and north, highs near 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will bring some fairly warm and at times sunny weather with the risk of showers greatest in the northwest. Highs will be near 22 C.

My local weather on Saturday was cooler, still very hazy and smoky, and it had the feel of a late October sort of day with almost twilight darkness at times in the afternoon due to the smoke. I spent all day outdoors in a golf tournament which was pleasant more for the outcome than the weather.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather cloudy at first with a few brief showers more likely in some western counties, then becoming sunny with cloudy intervals by afternoon, breezy (westerly 40 to 60 km/hr), highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, revealing the full moon (it was full on Sunday and will still appear that way tonight), lows 7 to 10 C. More frequent cloudy intervals in west and north, a steady breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too far except perhaps in some southern valleys where 4 to 6 C might be recorded.

TUESDAY ... Some sunshine in east and south, a weak frontal band by afternoon or evening will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to parts of west and north. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C west and north 20 C east and south. Some heavier bursts of rain Tuesday night in the south as a wave forms on the front near Cork, 5 to 10 mm could fall by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers mostly confined to morning hours, breezy again from westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, morning lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals with a chilly start to the day, lows 4 to 7 C and highs warming up to 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain at times by late in the day in west and north, highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, breezy, highs 18 to 21 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 14 to 18 C.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers, highs 14 to 17 C.

The first part of September in general looks quite cool with a few spells of near normal and dry weather separated by a few days of mostly cloudy, showery and breezy weather, temperatures in general from now to mid-September will likely average a touch below normal or right on the seasonal average.

My local weather began a very slow improvement trend which I hope will continue as one November is enough for any given year, and it has felt and looked like that for several days here. Today I joked that we had improved to early October with our cloudy skies, patchy drizzle and highs of 17 C. The visibility improved all the way to 5 kms by afternoon.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunshine in east and south, a weak frontal band by afternoon or evening will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to parts of west and north. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C west and north 20 C east and south.

TONIGHT ... Some further intervals of mostly light rain with somewhat heavier falls in the south as a wave forms on the front near Cork, 3 to 5 mm could fall by morning. Lows near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers mostly confined to morning hours, breezy again from westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, morning lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers possible, with a chilly start to the day, lows 4 to 7 C and highs warming up to 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain at times by late in the day in west and north, highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, breezy, highs 18 to 21 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm, highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine as cloud slowly increases, highs 20 to 24 C.

The models are starting to pick up on a different theme for a while now, with a temporary return to warm and dry weather, must be the school year starting thing that everyone mentions ... but eventually the pattern does begin to include some cooler and wetter days by the second week of September.

My local weather improved considerably with some blue skies and highs near 21 C, allowing a better view of where fires are burning to our northwest in forested wilderness areas across a lake from my location, could see three separate fire zones. Nothing too major and little spread has been observed for about a week now.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few isolated showers mostly confined to morning hours, breezy again from west at 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool. Lows 4 to 7 C, coolest in the inland south. Fog patches widespread by dawn.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers possible, with a chilly start to the day, lows 4 to 7 C and highs warming up to 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain at times by late in the day in west and north, highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Brief and light showers ending during the morning, then sunny intervals, breezy, highs 18 to 21 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals with increasing cloud, warm, highs 19 to 23 C. Some rain possible at times in northwest, as a weak front brushes past the Ulster coast.

MONDAY ... Showers in parts of north, breezy, some sunshine at times, highs 18 to 22 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week is looking dry, sunny at times, and reasonably warm in the daytime (near 20 C) with cool nights and probably widespread shallow fog in low-lying rural areas. Nights may be as cool as 3 to 7 C away from warmer coastal areas. This pleasant spell of weather may last or at least be the dominant theme with brief interruptions as models are now backing away from very much active frontal weather, just the occasional slight resetting of this pattern, but it seems likely to break down in mid-September.

My local weather was quite overcast most of the day with hazy sunshine by afternoon, warming up to 24 C. Smoke layers continue to reduce our visibility at least looking west or north.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers possible, and highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain in west, 2 to 5 mm likely. Partly to mostly cloudy but dry in east, lows generally 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some light rain at times, highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Brief and light showers ending during the morning, then sunny intervals, breezy, highs 18 to 21 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals with increasing cloud, warm, lows 10 to 13 C, highs 19 to 23 C. Some rain possible at times in northwest, as a weak front brushes past the Ulster coast.

MONDAY ... Showers in parts of north, breezy, some sunshine at times, lows 8 to 10 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 17 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Foggy during late overnight hours, hazy sunshine, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 3 to 7 C, highs 18 to 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather dry and mild, highs generally close to 20 C.

My local weather on Wednesday featured some morning hazy sunshine, increasing cloud, and showers moving through by afternoon and evening, gusty northwest winds with a weak cold front after highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 31 August, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny breaks for east and north at first, then cloud spreading across from south and west, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, 2 to 5 mm at most. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, a slow clearing trend for west. Lows 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY ... A few patches of drizzle or light rain in the morning should begin to clear away by mid-day, with some sunshine to follow, highs in the 18 to 22 C range.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine followed by increasing and thickening cloud, then patchy light rain, rather warm. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY ... Gradual clearing, not quite as warm. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue dry with seasonable temperatures, cool nights 3 to 7 C with fog patches, warmer days with sunshine at times and highs 18 to 21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and warmer with east to southeast breezes developing, warmest in Connacht and midlands, west Munster inland, where highs 20 to 24 C possible. Otherwise highs 17 to 21 C. Nights not as chilly either, lows 5 to 9 C.

The dry spell seems likely to break down towards middle of second week of September with more of an Atlantic influence again.

My local weather on Thursday was partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles of light rain at times, highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1st of September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with patchy drizzle this morning then sunny breaks will develop, quite warm, highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog patches, otherwise clear, lows 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine, increasing cloud by afternoon, some light rain developing mostly in western counties, spreading further east by evening and overnight. Warm with highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY ... Showers ending, gradual clearing during the morning, less humid and cooler, highs 15 to 17 C.

NEXT WEEK in general will be dry, near normal in temperatures, highs 17 to 20 C, and cool overnight, lows 3 to 7 C except in parts of the north where cloud will be more prevalent keeping overnight lows higher and daytime highs a bit lower.

This rather stagnant high pressure will promote north to northeast breezes at first, turning more east to southeast later, by the following weekend. This may allow temperatures to rise slightly to around 21 or 22 C especially in western counties.

The blocking will break down in the second week of September with much more of an Atlantic influence and some potential for strong winds developing by about mid-month to 20th.

My local weather has remained rather bland, still rather hazy from nearby fires that will have to await the autumn rains as little effort is being made to put them out (due to their remote location in a wilderness park area), and highs on Friday reached about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 2 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some hazy sunshine especially this morning in some parts of east and south, then outbreaks of light rain more persistent in west, where 2 or 3 mm possible. Rather warm and humid, highs 19 to 23 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy drizzle ending, partial clearing, cooler. Lows 8 to 10 C by dawn.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated brief showers in north, otherwise mainly dry, cool. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Rather cloudy except near south coast and parts of southeast with some sunny intervals there, patchy drizzle near northwest coasts, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will remain dry in most areas with some isolated light showers in north, and rather chilly, lows 4 to 7 C and highs mostly 15 to 18 C, could reach 20 C in west Munster at times.

OUTLOOK for next weekend is variable cloud and slightly warmer, highs 17 to 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for warmer but unsettled conditions following that weekend around 10th-11th, then a clearing trend with near normal temperatures or perhaps slightly warmer than average by mid-month.

Weak tropical storm Florence is moving west away from the Cabo Verde islands into the eastern Atlantic. It is expected to remain a tropical storm for about a week to ten days, eventually recurving close to the Azores and possibly moving north towards Iceland towards mid-month. Another weak tropical system is expected to follow it. Much stronger super typhoon Jebi is menacing central Japan with a Tuesday landfall expected near Osaka and Kobe. The main uncertainty seems to be how strong it will remain at that point and it looks to be a fast-moving system that will be moving quickly north into far eastern Russia later in the week.

My local weather was what you see below, highs near 22 C. You might be able to make out some sources of forest fire smoke in this picture which is basically our view looking northwest across a lake to a wilderness park area.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 3 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals, cooler than recent days, highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear across parts of south and east, becoming cloudy north and west, light rain at times by early morning there. Lows under clear skies 3 to 7 C, under cloud about 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy south and east, overcast with a few breaks, and occasional light rain, north and west. Highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 4 to 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, light rain at times in Ulster by late afternoon or evening. Moderate north winds developing 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs only 12 to 16 C, warmest near south coast.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of light to moderate rain will move into eastern counties at times, winds northerly 40 to 60 km/hr, quite chilly especially in eastern half of the country. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers but becoming somewhat warmer, highs 15 to 19 C.

SUNDAY 9th to TUESDAY 11th will likely be rather warm again with southwest winds returning, highs 19 to 23 C. Rain will follow this warm spell and it may become heavy at times later in the week and during the following weekend.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to move west in the east-central Atlantic Ocean and there is little change in that outlook, meanwhile Tropical Depression 7 is likely to form south and west of the Florida Keys later today and could become a named tropical storm early Tuesday, heading for Mobile, Alabama. Strong typhoon Jebi is approaching south central Japan today and will make a landfall near Osaka and Kobe Tuesday morning Japanese time (tonight in Ireland). It is currently about the same intensity as a cat-3 hurricane but is expected to be in the cat-2 range at landfall.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 4 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy south and east, highs 15 to 18 C. Mostly overcast with a few breaks, and occasional light rain, north and west. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals south and east, lows 4 to 7 C; partly to mostly cloudy, showers west and north with lows 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, and highs 14 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, light rain at times in Ulster by late afternoon or evening. Moderate north winds developing 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs only 12 to 16 C, warmest near south coast.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of light to moderate rain will move into eastern counties at times, winds northerly 40 to 60 km/hr, quite chilly especially in eastern half of the country. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, heavier in west Munster and south Connacht, where 10 to 15 mm possible, but becoming somewhat warmer in general, lows 4 to 8 C and highs 15 to 19 C.

SUNDAY 9th to TUESDAY 11th will likely be rather warm again with southwest winds returning, highs 19 to 23 C. Rain will follow this warm spell for a time and it may become heavy at times by Tuesday or early Wednesday, after which a return to dry and cooler weather is likely.

Tropical Storm Gordon is likely to become a minimal cat-1 hurricane just before making a landfall near Mobile Bay late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Florence continues to track gradually west into the central Atlantic and so far poses no threat to land. Typhoon Jebi has come ashore as expected near Osaka, Japan; damage reports are sketchy but winds have gusted over 160 km/hr in exposed coastal areas and rainfalls of 100-200 mm an hour have occurred over hilly areas on Shikoku and south central Honshu islands. The eye of the storm was beginning to lose identity in the past hour near Kyoto, northeast of Osaka.

My local weather on Labour Day Monday here was partly cloudy with gusty northwest winds after some morning showers that didn't last very long, highs near 20 C. I left out Sunday's local weather which was hazy sunshine with a lot of forest fire smoke and 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 5 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals for south and east, highs 16 to 19 C. Partly to mostly cloudy in west and north, isolated showers developing, highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, then increasing cloud with outbreaks of light rain in parts of Connacht, west Ulster spreading southeast. Lows around 5 C with temperatures rising slowly as cloud spreads in.

THURSDAY ... Showers will be mainly concentrated along a weak frontal boundary running from Connacht to east Munster and south Leinster, with somewhat cooler air moving into regions further north. Highs 13 to 16 C in Ulster and parts of Leinster, to about 18 C in parts of Munster.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, better sunshine likely in south and west. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, followed by partial clearing, a bit warmer. Lows near 10 C and highs around 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, a few light showers, humid. Highs 16 to 19 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times, warm and humid, highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain clearing gradually, highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The rest of next week looks dry and somewhat cooler again with highs 15 to 17 C, chilly nights with isolated frosts. Once this settled spell ends late in the week, the door opens to frequent Atlantic fronts, with stronger winds at times, and the occasional bout of heavier rainfall as fronts pass. Temperatures will be generally at or slightly below mid-September average values, in the 13 to 16 C range.

My local weather on Tuesday was hazy and warm with a high of about 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 6 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with bands of light to moderate rain most persistent from Connacht to east Munster and south Leinster, where 5 to 10 mm amounts are likely. Somewhat brighter with dry intervals in parts of Ulster and southwest Munster. Highs only 14 to 16 C for most, perhaps reaching 18 C around Kerry.

TONIGHT ... Rain turning to drizzle and fog before ending, clear intervals spreading south from east Ulster, and quite cold in these areas with lows 2 to 5 C. Lows closer to 10 C in the southwest.

FRIDAY ... Isolated showers but becoming partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals, increasing cloudiness in west by late afternoon, rain by evening near Atlantic coasts. Highs 14 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain possible in the morning, with gradual clearing by afternoon from west to east. Lows near 10 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, a few passing showers but some sunshine at times too, lows near 9 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Rain could turn heavy at times, warm and humid in the south. Temperatures steady 16 to 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending, gradual clearing, fresher. Highs 15 to 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, but some sunshine at times each day, for most of the following week, highs rather cool 14 to 17 C.

Hurricane Florence has become quite powerful in the central Atlantic Ocean and now has a slight risk of moving close enough to Bermuda in about five days' time to cause some disruptions there. After that model consensus is weak for the eventual meandering track of Florence, so there will be a slight chance that we'll be dealing with its remnants at some point around mid-month, however nothing very definite on that scenario yet. My local weather remained hazy and warm on Wednesday with highs near 24 C, and layers of smoke still making it difficult to see much of the scenery off to our west.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 7 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals will develop as cloud breaks up later this morning, then some increase in cloud will follow at least in western counties, with rain by late evening there. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming rather heavy at times, 10 to 15 mm likely, fog and lows near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further rain will be more persistent in south and east, some late afternoon or evening brighter intervals developing in the west and northwest. Highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers but some dry intervals with a few sunny breaks. Lows near 9 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Warm and humid in the south, rain for most regions but heavier central and inland north, where temperatures may be held down to about 16 to 18 C. Some southern inland locations could reach 20 C or slightly above if there is enough hazy sunshine.

TUESDAY ... Rain continuing for part of the day in the south and east, gradual clearing from northwest by afternoon, as slightly cooler air presses in. Highs near 19 C south, 16 C north.

OUTLOOK ... Some dry spells mid-week, but showery in parts of the north, then back to more persistent rain by end of next week.

The longer term outlook is very uncertain due to large unknowns about tropical storm activity. Florence has been reduced to a tropical storm again but is expected to mount a comeback near Bermuda, then go into some sort of long-term meandering track off the east coast of the United States. None of that is really very certain at this point so trying to estimate what could happen ten days from now is difficult. Then there are likely to be two trailing tropical storms in the east central Atlantic, with similar large uncertainties about their future evolutions. Some models are indicating a more settled spell after mid-month for Ireland as high pressure builds up and stalls over western Europe. That would keep all of these tropical systems far away and cause them to continue to eddy around near the Azores.

My local weather continued warm, very hazy from forest fire smoke, and warm again with highs near 24 C. We're expecting an end to this warm spell on Friday with a cold front bringing rain later. It has been very hot in eastern regions of North America for a week or more.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 8 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will be heavy at times this morning and may ease off to drizzle later, with total rainfalls of 10 to 15 mm. Rather foggy over higher terrain. A few brighter intervals by late afternoon or evening, mostly in the west. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy light rain or drizzle redeveloping, lows near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with moderate westerly winds, showers mainly confined to north but a few isolated passing showers further south by mid-day. Highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud after some sunny breaks in the morning, rain spreading in by late afternoon and evening, rather warm and humid especially in Munster and south Leinster. Morning lows 8 to 10 C and afternoon highs 15 to 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, total amounts over the two days could be 20 mm in places. The rain is likely to be heavier in central and later southern counties as a front slowly pushes south. Lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Gradual clearing, showers ending. Highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly in north, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Becoming rather unsettled with temperatures somewhat warmer at times, considerable uncertainty on pattern details.

Florence, still down to tropical storm status, is expected to make a slow approach to Bermuda perhaps missing just to the south, then to the Carolinas by middle of next week. From there, it could meander almost anywhere. Part of the uncertainty is being caused by two other tropical systems. Helene has already reached tropical storm status near Cabo Verde and is likely to make a northward turn in the central Atlantic, beating Florence to the guidance of the jet stream and possibly ending up fairly close to Ireland within a week to ten days (although perhaps in quite a weakened condition). Between Florence and Helene currently is tropical depression number 9, which may become Isaac. That one is supposed to track further south and affect the Caribbean islands at some point.

My local weather has remained very hazy and smoky, and it was quite warm on Friday with highs about 26 C. Rain along a cold front is just arriving now and should freshen our atmosphere for the weekend once it moves through.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 9 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy with moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr, showers mainly confined to north but a few isolated passing showers further south by mid-day. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud after some sunny breaks in the morning, rain spreading in by late afternoon and evening, rather warm and humid especially in Munster and south Leinster. Afternoon highs 15 to 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, total amounts over the two days could be 20 mm in places. The rain is likely to be heavier in central counties as a front stalls through those regions. Lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Gradual clearing, showers ending. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly in north, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times, highs near 17 C.

Little change in the tropical systems except to note that tropical depression 9 became Tropical Storm Isaac earlier, and that one may be near Guadeloupe or Martinique in a few days, at cat-1 or even cat-2 intensity. Florence is being watched for possible severe impacts around North Carolina in about five days.

My local weather on Saturday featured some heavy showers in the early morning, then partly cloudy during the day, fresher with highs about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 10 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of rain in most areas, holding off until late afternoon in parts of the southeast. About 5 to 10 mm is expected. Highs around 15 to 18 C, warmest in the southeast. Moderate south to southwest winds at times.

TONIGHT ... A few more intervals of light rain, becoming more confined to the south, lows 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy in the north, isolated showers, highs near 15 C. Overcast with occasional light rain in the south, highs about 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunny breaks, just a few isolated showers, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers becoming more widespread, about 5 to 10 mm rain likely. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled through next weekend and into the following week, although some improvement may set in by about mid-week.

The tropical story remains essentially unchanged. Florence will become a powerful hurricane and may hit parts of the Carolinas by Thursday, with heavy rain further north. Isaac is now also a hurricane and may move across islands around Guadeloupe and Martinique later this week. Helene is further east and looks likely to meander around near the Azores by later this week into next week, so far showing no inclination to move any closer than that to Ireland.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and rather warm with highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 11 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks at times in the north, and continuing patchy light rain in the south, becoming somewhat more widespread towards evening. Highs 15 or 16 C for most areas.

TONIGHT will bring outbreaks of light rain for a while, followed by gradual clearing, and lows near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, the best chances for sunshine in the southeast, and isolated showers are likely for the north. Highs will be rather cool in the 13 to 16 C range, and westerly winds of 30 to 50 km/hr will sometimes be gusty.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, with showers developing by afternoon. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY looks unsettled but rainfall amounts not too heavy, and temperatures near 15 C.

SATURDAY could start off fairly dry with sunny intervals in the east, followed by increasing cloud and then rain by later in the day, highs about 16 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking rather wet and windy at this point and some guidance is suggesting remnants of Helene will link up with the frontal system responsible by Monday night or Tuesday to bring a spell of heavier rain and gusty winds, at this point it does not appear too severe and is confined mostly to the southeast. This situation could obviously change closer to the time. Highs during this interval might be a little higher, in a southwesterly flow, near 18 C.

Little if any change to outlooks for Hurricane Florence and (now only) Tropical Storm Isaac. Florence, a powerful cat-4 hurricane, appears likely to make a slow inland move around North Carolina on Thursday. It could meander around for a time before the jet stream catches hold of it and pulls it into the Atlantic westerly flow. If any remnants of it reach Ireland, that would most likely be towards the end of next week (in about ten days' time) so any details on that will have to wait for a few days. Isaac still appears headed for the Caribbean. Another tropical system is trying to form near western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. That one, if successful, would likely stay in the Gulf of Mexico.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with passing showers and a few rumbles of thunder, as it turned cooler, highs only near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 12 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY will be partly cloudy, the best chances for sunshine in the southeast, and isolated showers are likely for the north. Highs will be rather cool in the 13 to 17 C range, and westerly winds of 30 to 50 km/hr will sometimes be gusty.

TONIGHT will see somewhat more widespread showers in the north spreading to central counties, overcast after midnight further south, and lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, with frequent showers in the north and central counties spreading further south by afternoon. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs around 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY looks unsettled but rainfall amounts not too heavy, and lows near 8 C, highs around 15 C.

SATURDAY could start off fairly dry with sunny intervals in the east, followed by increasing cloud and then rain by later in the day, highs about 16 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking rather wet and windy at this point and some guidance is suggesting remnants of Helene will link up with the frontal system responsible by Monday night or Tuesday to bring a spell of heavier rain and gusty winds, at this point it does not appear too severe and is confined mostly to the southeast. This situation could obviously change closer to the time. Highs during this interval might be a little higher, in a southwesterly flow, near 18 to 21 C. A non-tropical low following quickly on the heels of the Helene remnants will bring more gusty winds on Tuesday and these could actually be stronger than the weakening tropical remnant, although not damaging (perhaps peaking around 80 km/hr). Beyond that unsettled period, high pressure seems increasingly dominant and it should be well established before any remnants of Florence finish meandering around eastern North America and finally getting pulled east in the jet stream, the current thinking is that this remnant low will approach Greenland and loop around back towards Newfoundland because of this blocking high pressure in the eastern Atlantic. So in other words there could be a pleasant spell of autumn weather towards the 20th and beyond.

The latest guidane for Florence is rather scattered after a strong hurricane approach to North Carolina by Thursday night, some models want to stall and loop the hurricane near the coast, others want to drag it slowly inland on various paths. Almost all eventually find a window of opportunity for the remnants to get into the core of the jet stream and blast back into the Atlantic in about ten days' time. There remains a slight chance all this could happen much faster and get Florence moving before the blocking really develops, but few models are currently going down that road.

My local weather was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and passing showers, with highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 13 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals mostly in the southeast, with frequent showers in the north and central counties spreading further south by afternoon. Rainfalls about 2 to 5 mm for most with highs around 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will bring more patchy light rain, and lows near 8 C.

FRIDAY looks unsettled but rainfall amounts not too heavy although a narrow band of heavier rain could form later in the afternoon around south Galway, with highs around 15 C.

SATURDAY could start off fairly dry with sunny intervals in the east, followed by increasing cloud and then rain by later in the day, lows 7 to 10 C and highs about 16 C. Some heavier bursts of rain are likely by evening and overnight.

SUNDAY will bring a gradual clearing trend and quite warm temperatures, lows near 12 C and highs 19 or 20 C.

MONDAY into TUESDAY, a warm and humid southerly flow may last until remnants of Helene arrive. Timing on that event is uncertain with the range being late Monday to late Tuesday. Highs would likely reach 23 C in some inland areas then some heavy rain is likely when the tropical storm remnant arrives. Note: the GFS model currently shows this being a strong wind event Monday night, other guidance is more subdued. I am waiting to see better model consensus on this outcome before making too much out of it.

Meanwhile, Florence slowly approaches the North Carolina coast all day and probably most of tonight before edging slowly inland near Wilmington and Cape Fear. Very heavy, prolonged rainfalls may be the biggest problem although damaging wind and surge impacts are almost certain for much of the coast between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. Florence is expected to make a slow, somewhat disorganized push west then north before being swept into the westerlies, and here again, model consensus is poor, but the GFS model shows this remnant low bringing strong wind gusts to Ireland on Thursday 20th. Some other guidance maintains an earlier theme of blocking high pressure keeping Helene weak and Florence far away.

My local weather on Wednesday was cool and showery with highs near 14 C. Over in Alberta, it is much colder, currently -2 C and snowing at Edmonton.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 14 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, intervals of light rain with some heavier bursts, about 5 to 10 mm likely. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy, but becoming dry as rain moves east, lows 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... A few sunny intervals possible in east and south in the morning, otherwise overcast with rain starting during the mid-day to afternoon hours in the west, becoming quite windy in parts of the north (southwest 50 to 70 km/hr). Highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Gradual clearing by morning, then some sunny intervals, partly to mostly cloudy later on with isolated showers, warm. Lows about 12 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY ... Very warm and humid, strong southerly winds developing late in the day followed by rain overnight. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, turning cooler. Highs near 18 C. ... It currently appears that fairly strong remnants of Helene will cross Ireland from the southwest around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Peak winds are not expected to be damaging but could reach about 100 km/hr locally. Rainfalls of 10 to 25 mm are likely. A second frontal system will add another round of wet, windy weather Tuesday night.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some improvements mid-week, still relatively mild, then another wet and windy spell late Thursday into Friday, and this could be associated with remnants of Florence. Highs around 18 C.

Florence is currently hovering just off the coast of central North Carolina and while winds are very strong, the main problem so far appears to be storm surge in the New Bern region. Eventually the continual heavy rainfall will begin to spread floodwaters all over the rather flat region as rivers fail to discharge in part because of the storm surges blocking their outflows. The storm is expected to weaken gradually over the next three days as it drifts northwest and inland as far as eastern Ohio before making a sharp turn east and heading back towards the Atlantic across southern New England around Tuesday. Any remnants of it reaching Ireland are likely to be almost indistinguishable from the normal equinoctial gales that often occur anyway, it's possible that one of those will just swoop in on the jet stream and take away what remains of Florence at that point.

My local weather was cool and unsettled with thunderstorms at times, and highs barely into the 10-12 C range. Snow was continuing to fall in parts of central Alberta.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 15 September, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


Advance alert: The remnant low of Tropical Storm Helene appears likely to move through Ireland on Monday night with potential for strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfalls. See forecasts for details.


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain starting late morning to mid-day in west, spreading to east by afternoon and evening. About 5 to 10 mm likely. Highs 14 to 18 C. Some gusty southwest winds at times by afternoon in particular around north Connacht and west Ulster, gusts to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending from west to east, mild, breezy. Lows 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some passing showers but also some sunny breaks. Highs 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy and warm, increasing southerly winds, some outbreaks of light rain at first, followed by an interval of heavier rain with possible thunderstorms overnight, in very strong south to southwest winds 80-120 km/hr. Rainfalls may total about 25 mm in places by Tuesday morning. Monday morning lows 12 to 15 C, afternoon highs 18 to 22 C.

TUESDAY ... After strong early morning gusts, the daytime will remain quite windy with rain tapering to showers, some partial clearing in gusty westerly winds 50-80 km/hr by afternoon and increasing again to southwest 70-110 km/hr by evening as another front arrives. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Blustery, warm, humid outbreaks of rain at times mid-week into Thursday night becoming heavy for a time, winds peaking at around 100 km/hr. Highs each day near 19 C. After this unsettled period, a somewhat cooler pattern under higher pressure, likely still a degree or two above seasonal normals though, with highs 17 or 18 C, but cooler nights.

My local weather on Friday remained quite cool and unsettled with frequent light rain and highs around 14 C.

Florence has continued to weaken gradually with the circulation slowly moving inland near the NC/SC border. Helene this morning is a tropical storm west-northwest of the Azores heading just to the north of the island chain, moderate westerly winds are expected there due to the distance to the centre.

The situation for Monday night remains fluid, generally speaking it does not look quite as severe as Ophelia (in those places badly affected by that storm such as Cork) but most guidance is on the border of damaging gust potential at this time. We may have to wait until Monday to have any firm idea how severe this storm may really turn out, but would expect at least a minor disruptive event.