Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, then a band of showery precipitation will move slowly south from Ulster by afternoon with increasing risk of wintry showers over higher terrain in the north as it turns somewhat colder. Highs will reach 11-13 C in the south but only about7-10 C north, with temperatures falling steadily in all regions by evening. Winds becoming north to northeast at 40-60 km/hr. Rainfall or melted equivalent with the front will be generally rather slight, 2-4 mm.

TONIGHT ... Expect a coating of snow on some higher ground, sleet showers closer to sea level, but these will be more likely in Ulster and higher parts of Leinster than many other places which could remain dry with clear intervals. It will become very cold with lows -2 to +3 C in moderate northerly winds of about 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Cold with scattered wintry showers, mostly over higher terrain and more likely in north and around higher parts of south Leinster. Some morning frosts possible with lows -2 to +3 C. Winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding some chill to daytime readings of 6 to 9 C. Sunny breaks more frequent near south and west coasts. Snow could fall on higher slopes such as the Dublin and Wicklow hills, amounts of 1-3 cm possible.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, just a few isolated showers and turning a bit milder as winds back into north then northwest and finally westerly about 40 to 60 km/hr, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely stay dry and remain quite cool with slight frosts in some areas, and highs 10-13 C. Winds will fall off to light by later Monday and should remain light on Tuesday as the core of high pressure drifts east.

WEDNESDAY (into THURSDAY) may see an increase in cloud near the south coast with a slight risk of rain brushing the coast by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Further north it will remain dry and cool in a slight northeast wind. Guidance is still a bit divergent on how much rain could fall in some parts of the south, possibly about 10 mm at worst.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued dry weather as a second high pressure centre forms to the northwest and controls the regime despite staying a bit off to the west for several days. This will probably keep things rather cool due to the slight north to northeast wind trajectory although eventually it may warm up to mid-teens in western counties, the east will have cooler sea breezes if that happens.

Meanwhile, the rather flabby low that failed to reach the south coast overnight is heading into southern England this morning and will be just north of London by tonight, with an increasing northerly gradient developing over England tonight and Saturday morning. About 10-20 mm of rain will fall across parts of south Wales and south-central England today. Beyond this difference, the bulk of the forecast period will bring similar conditions to the forecast for Ireland and this will also be the case today in Scotland where the cold front is already moving south bringing sleety showers.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few breaks, mainly dry and a bit warmer at 14 C. We are expecting this sort of weather for a few more days and then another very warm, dry spell next week. The eastern parts of North America have now begun to warm up to near normal values and the only cooling effect left is from lake breezes that can drop temperatures as much as 10 degrees locally -- otherwise it will be around 15-20 C today in the northeastern states and the lower Great Lakes, 20-23 C away from the lakes in the Midwest.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold with scattered wintry showers, mostly over higher terrain and more likely in north and around higher parts of south Leinster. Some morning frosts inland with current (0600h) readings of -1 at several locations. Winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding some chill to highs of 6 to 9 C. Sunny breaks more frequent near south and west coasts. Snow could fall on higher slopes such as the Dublin and Wicklow hills, further amounts of 1-3 cm possible.

TONIGHT ... Clearing except for some low cloud near north coasts, lows reaching -3 C inland with sharp frosts, -1 to +2 C coastal and urban areas except 4-6 C north coast.

SUNDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, except for mostly cloudy skies in parts of north, just a few isolated showers there, and turning a bit milder as winds back to westerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely stay dry and remain quite cool with slight frosts in some areas, and highs 10-13 C. Winds will fall off to light by later Monday and should remain light on Tuesday as the core of high pressure drifts east. Just the odd isolated shower in Connacht and Ulster but only slight or trace accumulations. Expect a sharp ground frost each morning but Tuesday could be as cold as -4 C in a few locations.

WEDNESDAY (into THURSDAY) may see an increase in cloud near the south coast with rain developing across the south on Wednesday night into Thursday. Further north it may remain dry and cool in northeast winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10 mm. Highs both days 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for very cool late April temperatures in a generally northwest to northerly flow that may become strong at times with disturbances dropping south across Britain or the North Sea. Snow showers may develop in some of these frontal troughs, or sleety rain/hail showers, but high pressure may also try to build in so that some days may be dry. Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees below average and some highs may not exceed 8 C, with slight frosts continuing. There are hints of a more settled and likely somewhat warmer interval near the end of the month when the distant high pressure moves closer.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and a little warmer again with highs near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... After a very cold start (-2 currently at Markree, Sligo) it should be a bit milder today as winds back to a westerly direction. Just a few light showers may develop near Atlantic coasts this morning but most places will have a dry day with some sunny intervals, highs 9-12 C and winds westerly 40-60 km/hr by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals across the south and central counties with frosts developing and lows -3 to +2 C, mostly cloudy further north with lows 3-5 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated sprinkles of rain (mostly just trace amounts). Highs 9-12 C.

TUESDAY ... A very sharp frost is possible under clear skies, lows -4 to +2 C, then sunny intervals and highs 9-12 C. Light winds with just a slight southeast breeze by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming rather breezy and more overcast after morning lows of about -2 to +3 C with scattered frosts. Rain may approach the south coast by evening but the day will probably stay dry otherwise. Highs about 9 to 11 C in east to southeast winds 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Rain or scattered showers for parts of the south (5-10 mm), possibly staying dry in the north or just a few light showers, mostly cloudy and rather cool with lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, cool with isolated showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very cool late April temperatures that may stay in single digits in the daytime (7-9 C) and slight frosts most nights, sometimes rather windy from the northwest, with the risk of snow showers in some places (current guidance shows very cold conditions around ten days from now).

My local weather on Saturday was pleasant, especially inland where I was, the coast stayed cloudy with spits of rain but the sun was trying to come out just a few miles inland and it reached 19 C as a result. Further east, there's rain over the northern plains and southern prairies but it turns to heavy wet snow in Colorado due to elevation changes, some places near Pueblo CO saw 50-75 cms on Saturday. This won't last very long as warmer air spreads in next week. Further west, this warmer spell will see more record warmth developing and highs could reach 28 C in Washington and Oregon.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 18 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, very light showers at times near Atlantic coasts, trace amounts to 1 mm ... highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, frost likely. Lows -3 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with afternoon cloudy periods, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine but increasing cloud, moderate east winds developing, risk of rain by evening near south coast has decreased but some could occur near outer headlands, morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 12-15 C mildest near west coast.

THURSDAY ... Continued partly to mostly cloudy, rather mild, any rain will likely be confined to south coast and could be gone before mid-day there, moderate east to northeast winds, lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C, mildest in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cooler by next weekend, still expecting some intervals of unseasonably cold northwest winds and wintry shower risk next week although models seem to have downgraded the severity somewhat.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny through high cloud, and warmer with the high 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some clearing this morning, then partly sunny with further cloudy periods, highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at times, scattered ground frost where skies remain clear, most likely in the inland north but possibly in parts of west Munster. Lows in the range of -1 to +4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine but increasing cloud, moderate east winds developing 40-60 km/hr, and highs 12-15 C mildest near west coast.

THURSDAY ... Continued partly to mostly cloudy, rather mild, any rain will likely be confined to south coast but seems more likely to hover just off the south coast, east to northeast breezes of 40-60 km/hr, lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C, mildest in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C. Slight risk of light showers developing.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy, cooler with passing showers in parts of Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster in northeast breezes 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 9 or 10 C (possibly 12 C west Munster).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unseasonably cool next week with a slight risk of wintry showers developing in northeast to northwest winds sometimes reaching 50-70 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C until late in the week when it may warm up slightly. The first week of May is currently looking closer to normal as the northeasterly regime breaks down.

My local weather on Monday was more like July than April, the high was 29 C and records were shattered all over the region (many of them set in 1962 which may be of interest). It was between 31 and 32 C in Seattle and Portland and many other places in the northwestern states, and also in the inland portions of southern B.C. This is expected to continue today and into Wednesday. It is probably related to the breaking down of the El Nino pattern which is forcing the upper ridge often well out in the Pacific into western regions of North America. At the same time, the cool regime in Europe seems to be related to the eastward shift of the cold water anomaly in the Atlantic from its winter position in the central ocean to its current position off the west coast of Ireland. One encouraging factor is that some rather warm summers (in Ireland and the U.K.) have followed the breakdown of a strong El Nino. Both 1983 and 1998 were relatively warm years. I will have a long-range forecast for the summer available some time in May (just working on it this week).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud near south coast, pleasantly warm inland and near west coast, somewhat cooler near east and south coasts due to easterly breezes increasing to 40-60 km/hr. Highs 14-16 C for most, but closer to 12 C in onshore breezes.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy in south, clear intervals central and north, isolated ground frost inland north. Lows 4-7 C south, 1-3 C north/central.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals in north. Rain will brush south coast from Cork to south Kerry, 1-3 mm in a few locations there, but otherwise a dry day for almost all locations, winds east to northeast 40-60 km/hr and highs 12-15 C, mildest in Connacht and Clare, Limerick.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers, turning slightly colder by afternoon as northeast winds turn more northerly, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will bring similar weather, cloudy with a few passing showers, a cold northeast wind at times, lows 1-3 C and highs 9-11 C.

NEXT WEEK continues to look unseasonably cold. Tuesday night into Wednesday seems to be the most likely interval for wintry showers although a second surge of very cool air will arrive by Friday. Highs each day will be held down to 7-10 C with slight frosts most nights. The total rainfall (or melted equivalent) will not be very great and the present drying conditions will not be entirely reversed.

Over in BRITAIN, most of these details will be similar although at times it will be a degree or two colder, and with more widespread wintry showers (snow on some northern hills) next week, at least in eastern parts of England. Some record low daily temperatures may occur.

By contrast, my local weather continued to resemble the middle of summer with sunshine and highs in the 25-30 C range all around the region. We are expecting one more day of this with a thundery breakdown possible, something that is quite rare around here (I would estimate that we get 3 to 5 thunder days a year locally, compared to maybe 30-50 just a few miles further inland). This warmth has extended well to the north and encouraged an early start to the brush fire season (these early ones are usually cases where an agricultural burn gets out of control). There is also a warm spell underway in eastern regions, not as record-breaking as the western heat, and the Houston (Texas) area has had severe flooding rainfalls recently.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny intervals central and northern counties, mostly cloudy in the south with intervals of light rain brushing the southwest coast (1-3 mm possible there). Highs 14-16 C in the west, 11-13 C east and south. Moderate easterly breezes at times.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy (overcast south coast), some views of the full moon (the exact time is 0605h Friday after the moon has set in Ireland) and lows in the range 3-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Some light rain at times near south coast (3-5 mm possible), otherwise cloudy with a few brighter intervals, not quite as mild with highs around 13 C in moderate east to northeast breezes.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and colder with a few passing showers in moderate northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr and risk of showers mainly in northwest counties, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

NEXT WEEK will be quite chilly with two surges of cold air from the far north arriving around Monday and again on Thursday, but not much recovery between them, highs of only 6 to 10 C for most locations each day, some slight frosts. In Britain it may turn out even colder with record low temperatures possible around Monday-Tuesday and again Thursday-Friday and snow showers in parts of Scotland and eastern England.

This cold spell should begin to moderate back to more normal temperatures in the first week of May.

Meanwhile, my local weather featured a third day of record-breaking warmth all over the region, highs reaching 27-30 C. Slightly cooler air from the Pacific is moving inland overnight setting off some thunderstorms in parts of WA and OR states, and these may hold together long enough to produce some lightning here towards sunrise. The core of the heat will move east today to Idaho and Montana but it will remain rather warm further west although closer to 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some light rain at times near south coast (3-5 mm possible), otherwise cloudy with a few brighter intervals more frequent in west and north, not quite as warn as recent days with highs around 13 C in moderate east to northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few light showers possible, lows 2-4 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and colder with a few passing showers in moderate northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr and risk of showers mainly in northwest counties, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few passing showers, cold northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers (mainly on hills in north), lows about -1 C and highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold for several more days with highs 7-12 C, occasional showers that could also be wintry on hills. Somewhat warmer in the first week of May, rather unsettled with highs 11-15 C.

These trends will be similar in Britain although with more widespread wintry showers around Tuesday to Friday of next week.

My local weather was partly sunny after some brief early morning showers, quite a bit cooler with a high near 18 degrees. The heat wave we were having has pushed east of the Cascades where it was once again closer to 30 as far east as Montana. Eastern regions of North America have some scattered thunderstorms and rather warm temperatures as well.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and colder with a few passing showers by afternoon mostly, in moderate north to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs only 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy frost developing under partly cloudy skies, lows 1-4 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr and risk of showers mainly in northwest counties, and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few passing showers, cold northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, some scattered morning frosts with lows 1-3 C and highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers (mainly on hills in north), lows about -1 C and highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold for several more days with highs 7-12 C, occasional showers that could also be wintry on hills. Thursday is looking particularly cold especially in Ulster where snow could fall on higher terrain. Becoming somewhat warmer in the first week of May, but rather unsettled with highs 11-15 C.

These trends will be similar in Britain although with more widespread wintry showers around Tuesday to Friday of next week.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Friday was overcast and somewhat misty with drizzle at times, and a high of 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, frequent light showers mainly in northwest counties this morning may spread somewhat further southeast although some places will likely remain dry, 3 to 5 mm possible in the wetter areas of the northwest, and highs 8-11 C with the higher values in the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, passing showers, rather cold although probably too cloudy (or breezy) for frost, lows 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few passing showers, cold northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers (mainly on hills in north), lows about -1 C and highs 7-10 C. Some showers may produce thunder and hail.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued cold with thundery showers possible, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Very cold, wintry showers may become more widespread, winds veering to northerly 40-60 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of the south, cold with scattered wintry showers further north. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-9 C. Winds becoming east to northeast 40-60 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, winds remaining east to northeast, possible rain and while it will stay rather cool, temperatures will be slightly improved in the 9-12 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Temperatures should slowly improve in the first week of May to more normal values but it may remain rather unsettled.

Over in BRITAIN the colder periods indicated above will likely produce more widepsread wintry showers and snow. The Friday weather system is expected to intensify somewhat over southern England where there's a risk of quite a significant snowfall in the Midlands. The GFS model indicates just 2-4 cm coverage on some hills in Cork and Waterford from this, but 10-15 cms in parts of south-central England, so we'll have to keep a close eye on how this develops closer to the time.

My local weather on Saturday was warm and humid with mostly cloudy skies, and occasional drizzle that has turned to a steady light rain tonight. The high was about 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few sunny intervals at first, then mostly cloudy, northwest to northerly winds increasing to 50-70 km/hr, a few passing showers this morning in north and west, becoming more widespread in the afternoon, risk of one or two heavier showers with thunder or hail developing, and highs near 11 C south, 8 C north.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and cold with passing wintry showers, risk of snow on hills in Ulster, lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and cold, a few brighter intervals at first, then widespread thundery showers with hail, snow on some hills (mostly Connacht and Ulster) and highs only 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, morning frosts then further thundery showers, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, windy and cool with lows 1-3 C, highs 7-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, risk of snow or sleet on hills, rain showers elsewhere, lows about 2 C and highs about 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder on the weekend with rain at times, highs near 12 C, then cool and breezy for part of the following week with another warming trend to follow that, slowly getting back into the normal temperature range.

In Britain, as we've been discussing for several days, the colder parts of this coming week could produce some record low temperatures and snow on hills if not more widely in the Midlands at some point. The details keep changing but the risk of snow is probably greater on Tuesday and Friday than most other days (today in Scotland, however).

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with rain in the morning, showers stayed in the region just off to my east for most of the day but it stayed dry all afternoon, highs near 14 C. Warmer air that was over the west last week has now moved into the central states and will soon be over the east coast this week for a couple of days.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Note to readers: Boards may present you with a new-look menu (as an overseas member, I have already had the experience). You will notice that "sticky" threads such as this forecast are not in the menu. To access this thread, you would need to click on "Charter and Important" located in the upper right portion of the screen. Then you will have the menu of sticky threads. Another option is to click on "legacy site" which should return you to the current format. I won't know when this happens unless I get a number of private messages perhaps. So make a mental note, it is supposed to be happening any day now for the larger majority of members. I will leave this notice up for a week or so. (key is to remember to click on Charter and Important.)


Now to the forecast, which is perhaps more appropriate for Iceland or February (or both) ...

TODAY ... Breezy and cold, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr, a few brighter intervals at first, then widespread thundery showers with hail, snow on some hills (mostly Connacht and Ulster) and highs only 6-9 C. Temperatures could drop sharply during heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers and very cold but long dry intervals in south and some central counties, lows -3 to +2 C, frost likely inland.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, morning frosts then further thundery showers, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C. Winds continuing northerly at about 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, windy and cool with lows 1-3 C, highs 7-10 C. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures could drop during passage of heavier showers with possible sleet or snow at times.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, risk of snow or sleet on hills, rain showers elsewhere, lows about zero to +2 C and highs about 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather cold with showers but some sunny breaks too, lows about 1 to 3 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain may become heavier at times, 10-20 mm possible. Highs about 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little milder on Monday with showers, 14 C, then brisk winds returning, somewhat colder (not as cold as this week) with highs 9-12 C, but some faint signs of improvement towards the second week of May.

If you're heading for Scotland or Wales, there will be more risk of snow there today due to the combination of colder air and trajectory over water in parts of Wales. Some heavy falls are possible. This may also be the case in parts of eastern England although there it will be a more mixed variety of showers. The wind chill factor will be quite brisk too, earlier I noticed some reports as low as -15 C. In Ireland today, wind chills of -5 C or thereabouts may be felt in exposed areas.

Meanwhile, it is more spring-like here and Monday was mostly sunny with a rather cool breeze and highs near 13 C. A spring storm is brewing over the Rockies and heavy snow is predicted for Wyoming and parts of South Dakota, while severe storms develop in Nebraska.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Note to readers: Boards may present you with a new-look menu (as an overseas member, I have already had the experience). You will notice that "sticky" threads such as this forecast are not in the menu. To access this thread, you would need to click on "Charter and Important" located in the upper right portion of the screen. Then you will have the menu of sticky threads. Another option is to click on "legacy site" which should return you to the current format. I won't know when this happens unless I get a number of private messages perhaps. So make a mental note, it is supposed to be happening any day now for the larger majority of members. I will leave this notice up for a week or so. (key is to remember to click on Charter and Important.)


Now to the forecast, which continues to be dire but there is considerable improvement after the first three days of May ....

TODAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, morning frosts could give some icy roads in a few central and northern locations, then further thundery showers developing, snow likely on hills in Ulster and north Connacht (1-3 cm possible there), with highs only 6 to 10 C. Winds continuing northerly at about 30-50 km/hr making it feel closer to freezing at that time.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear breaks, passing sleety showers, winds backing to northwest 40-60 km/hr, lows generally 2-4 C but patchy frost still possible inland southeast.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, windy and cool with highs 7-11 C. Winds west veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures could drop during passage of heavier showers with possible sleet or snow at times. There will be a steady temperature drop by afternoon and evening and a strong risk of accumulating snow in parts of Ulster and Connacht even at some lower elevations but certainly on hills where 3-5 cms could fall overnight into Friday.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, risk of snow or sleet on hills, rain showers elsewhere, lows about zero to +2 C and highs about 9 C. Rather windy, NW 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather cold with showers but some sunny breaks too, lows about 1 to 3 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain may become heavier at times during the early morning hours when 10-20 mm possible. Some gradual clearing by afternoon, breezy or windy and a little milder with lows 4 to 7 C and highs about 12 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, passing showers and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool and unsettled for the first part of the week, then turning slightly milder with highs reaching 13-15 C eventually. The second week of May could see some intervals of rain but also some warmer spells reaching about 17 C. It does appear that this arctic outflow and blocking pattern will break down around 2-4 May to be replaced by more of a southerly flow.

Meanwhile, over in Scotland today may bring some locally heavy snowfalls on the mountains west of Aberdeen with 20-30 cms possible in places. For most other parts of Britain it will be windy and cold with wintry showers.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with sunny breaks and the high was about 16 C. Severe storms are dying out overnight in the central plains states and the system is likely to become more of a heavy rain producer as it moves slowly east being drained of its energy by the inflow of colder air from the Great Lakes region in a broad (and chilly) easterly flow.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Becoming windy and turning colder again during the afternoon hours, rain clearing east by mid-day but widespread wintry showers will then develop in a west to northwest flow with winds at 50-80 km/hr, highest temperatures about 9 C north, 12 C south mid-day but falling off steadily this afternoon. Some sunny intervals will develop in particular near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold, lows near freezing (0 C) with some accumulating snow in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, and on higher hills elsewhere. Risk of 1-3 cm snow in quite a few locations, 3-7 cms on higher slopes. Only a few passing flurries of mixed wintry variety expected for most of Leinster and Munster but one or two places may see a touch of snow in west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Cold and windy with passing wintry showers or sleety rain/hail showers, risk of thunder. Highs 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, a little milder after some scattered ground frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain could be heavy at times (10-20 mm) then clearing from west during the morning, still a few isolated showers after the clearance but milder, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, slightly cooler but not as cold as this past week, with lows around 3 C and highs around 10 C. Winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder again, highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Heavy rain may push through northern counties around Tuesday night, after which there will be several days of mainly dry, if somewhat cloudy weather with isolated showers, and temperatures a little below normal (lows 1-3 C and highs 11-13 C). Warmer weather will likely develop in the second week of May and highs may get into the 15-18 C range.

Over in Britain today, the strong northwest flow will hit western Scotland fairly soon and there may be heavy snow showers spreading across many parts of northern then central England and Wales by late in the day.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant, sunshine through high cloud and the high around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold and windy with passing wintry showers or sleety rain/hail showers, risk of thunder. Highs 7-10 C. Winds W-NW 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Becoming mainly dry with a few clear intervals, scattered frost inland, lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, a little milder after some scattered ground frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain could be heavy at times (10-20 mm) then clearing from west during the morning, still a few isolated showers after the clearance but milder, lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14C.

MONDAY ... Windy, another band of rain in the early morning hours with about 10 mm likely, then slightly cooler but not as cold as this past week, with lows around 3-5 C and highs around 10 C. Winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder again, highs near 14 C. Heavy rain possible by evening in west and north (15-30 mm potential).

OUTLOOK ... After the rain clears northeast, the rest of the week appears likely to bring partly cloudy and somewhat cooler weather with highs 10-13 C but then another warming trend can be expected by the second week of May.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with the high near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, a little milder with highs 8-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may be briefly heavy, 10-15 mm likely, lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain could be heavy at times (10-15 mm) then clearing from west during the morning, still a few isolated showers after the clearance but milder, and highs 11-14C.

MONDAY ... Windy, another band of rain in the early morning hours with about 10 mm likely, then slightly cooler but not as cold as this past week, with lows around 3-5 C and highs around 10 C. Winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder again, highs near 14 C. Heavy rain not considered as likely now but some overnight light rain in northwest (5-10 mm potential).

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun with a few more passing showers, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler towards the end of the week, highs 11-14 C, then a prolonged period of southeasterly flow with cloud and drizzle or light rain, highs close to 15 C. There could be one or two days thrown into that spell with some sunny breaks and warmer temperatures at least in some western counties.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloud piled up on the local mountains to the north, highs near 17 C. Meanwhile more snow fell in Colorado, some parts had 25 cms. This is fairly localized and related to upper level low pressure rather than any outbreak of cold air.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


No more bitter cold and hints of warmer weather


TODAY ... Rain ending soon in the southeast, then most places should enjoy a mostly dry mid-day and afternoon although a few more showers will develop in Connacht and Ulster. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain returns for a time, 5-10 mm, then becoming quite breezy and fresher with westerly winds 50-70 km/hr by morning. Lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, windy and a bit cooler with highs around 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, slight frost possible inland, but pleasant during the day. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 10-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some rain in far northwest, otherwise partly cloudy, and warmer with lows 4-7 C, highs 13-16 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, lows 4-7 C and highs 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... As winds turn more southeasterly, a lot of cloud is likely but temperatures will be near normal. It may feel a bit muggy with highs 12-14 C. There could be even warmer weather by middle of the second week of May, potential for readings into the high teens.

My local weather on Saturday was near-perfect with sunshine and 20 C. This has been one of the warmer Aprils we've had in recent years.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT valid 0600h to 0900h for squally showers, possible thunder and hail, wind gusts to 80 km/hr and brief bursts of heavy rainfall, moving through Leinster, last and most vigorous part of this front is expected between 0700h and 0800h in the Dublin region (somewhat earlier in central Leinster).

TODAY ... Squally showers and gusty winds will move through Leinster, east Ulster and east Munster this morning. Clearing is already underway further west, and this will lead to some sunny breaks but developing showers most frequent in Atlantic coastal counties around mid-day. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, fresher than yesterday with highs 10-12 C. About 5-15 mm of rain is likely with the morning frontal passage (this has largely fallen already in western counties).

TONIGHT ... A few isolated showers persisting but with diminishing winds and some clearing, rather cool especially inland, lows 1-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain may brush the northwest coasts but most other places will stay dry with occasional warm sunshine. Lows 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... More cloud than sun but still rather warm, lows 4-7 C and highs about 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, risk of light rain developing, lows 3-6 C and highs about 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Misty with low cloud fairly extensive, light rain at times, highs about 14 C.

NEXT WEEK could bring somewhat warmer temperatures (certainly in Britain and quite possibly in Ireland too) with highs away from exposed coasts perhaps reaching 17 or 18 C. With east winds, the east and south coasts may see locally cooler conditions with fog near shorelines. There may also be some westward-moving clusters of heavier showers during this warmer spell, which does not appear to be under much threat of a sudden change at this point although eventually somewhat cooler days appear possible by mid-month, but still around 13-14 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm at 23 C. We're expecting one more day of this early summer spell today before a gradual change to cloud and light rain mid-week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy this morning with a few light showers, gradually clearing to sunny intervals by afternoon, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals south and east, cloudy west and north, light rain beginning after midnight in far northwest, lows 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals (mainly eastern counties and parts of Munster), rain generally light and showery making some further progress east. Highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Misty to start, then a few sunny intervals, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from east to west with light rain possible in eastern counties spreading west overnight, lows 5-8 C and highs 12-14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather warm and close, outbreaks of rain may be briefly heavy and thundery, lows 8-10 C and highs 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week will see gradual infiltration of even warmer air from the east and some highs may reach 18-20 C but east coast and some parts of south will have cooling sea breezes and fog drifting inland in light to moderate east winds.

The situation for BRITAIN will be similar and some parts of south central England could see highs into the low 20s by next week.

My local weather was sunny and hot on Monday, highs reached 29 C here and low 30s in parts of nearby western Washington state. A few rather feeble thundershowers have formed on a seabreeze front this evening and we're getting the odd flash of lightning with drizzly light rain, still above 20 C as we approach midnight local time. Our warm spell is going to fade due to extensive marine cloud and the heat will become more centered over the prairies, northern sections of which are already seeing outbreaks of bush fires after quite a dry spring (and little snow last winter).

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals (mainly eastern counties and parts of Munster), occasional rain in Connacht and northern parts of west Munstern generally light to moderate and showery (5-10 mm) making some further progress east but tending to fragment and turn to patchy drizzle, some parts of southeast likely to remain dry. Highs 13-15 C. Moderate southerly winds at times 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Patchy drizzle, fog or mist patches, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Misty to start, then a few sunny intervals, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from east to west with light rain possible in eastern counties spreading west overnight, lows 5-8 C and highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain likely, 15-30 mm potential, heaviest amounts in west-central Munster and possibly south Connacht. This rain will push northwest during the entire day, and there could be some improvement in north Leinster and east Ulster before the end of the day, temperatures will be steady in the 12-14 C range in most places.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light rain but long dry intervals, and quite warm and humid. Lows 12-14 C and highs 17-19 C. Moderate southeast to east winds may bring somewhat cooler air inland near the Irish Sea and south coast.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be a warm if rather cloudy period, with any sunshine temperatures could reach 20 or a bit higher, but there's enough cloud in the forecast to make 18-19 C the most likely range for most places, and nights will remain rather mild at 8-12 C. Winds will continue moderate easterly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually winds seem likely to turn more northeast and this may bring drier air into parts of the north leading to more frequent sunny breaks but cooler nights, even if days remain about in the same range. Some model solutions bring in a brief shot of colder air in about a week to ten days from now, others hold that off for two weeks and it could be a very minor event, possibly the higher pressure north of Scotland will link through to Atlantic high pressure and lead to a long dry spell.

My local weather on Tuesday turned out rather sunny despite a cooler marine source for the local air mass, highs were near 22 C as a result. The hot and dry air continues to dominate further east and there is a major fire emergency around Fort McMurray, Alberta (in the northeast part of that province) forcing thousands to flee the city earlier. Wildfires are spreading into the city at least in some areas, looks rather apocalyptic on the television news.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Misty to start, then a few hazy sunny intervals, light winds and highs of 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, but extensive low cloud and patchy fog, lows 5-8 C except in any locations that stay clear (possible inland northwest) where 2-4 C is possible.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from east to west with light rain possible in eastern counties spreading west overnight, and highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain with possible thundery showers embedded, 15-30 mm potential, heaviest amounts in west-central Munster and possibly south Connacht. This rain will push northwest during the entire day, and there could be some improvement especially in north Leinster and east Ulster before the end of the day, temperatures will be steady in the 12-14 C range in most places but could rise to 16 C in any brighter intervals.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light showery rain but long dry intervals, and quite warm and humid. Lows 12-14 C and highs 17-21 C. Moderate southeast to east winds may bring somewhat cooler air inland near the Irish Sea and south coast.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be a warm if rather cloudy period, with any sunshine temperatures could reach 20 or a bit higher, but there's enough cloud in the forecast to make 18-19 C the most likely range for most places, and nights will remain rather mild at 8-12 C. Winds will continue moderate easterly. There will be slight chances of rain mainly near the south coast occasionally spreading northwest towards Connacht, but details will no doubt remain obscure until the warmer regime is well established.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... No major change to the thoughts from yesterday: Eventually winds seem likely to turn more northeast and this may bring drier air into parts of the north leading to more frequent sunny breaks but cooler nights, even if days remain about in the same range (17-21 C). Some model solutions bring in a brief shot of colder air in about a week to ten days from now, others hold that off for two weeks and it could be a very minor event, whereas quite possibly the higher pressure north of Scotland will link through to Atlantic high pressure and lead to a long dry spell. There are some hints of even warmer weather at some point in the second half of May and I would not be surprised to see some highs reaching the mid 20s (even next week this is possible in a few counties around Mayo and Galway).

There is a similar forecast for most parts of Britain although the Saturday rain event for Ireland will track only across the southwest on Friday night.

Meanwhile, the weather in my location started out with light showers that cleared away in the afternoon, with highs near 20 C. The Fort McMurray fire situation remains a major emergency with winds gusting to 70 km/hr in a weak cold frontal passage. The fires have been creating their own local radar echoes suggesting much stronger gusts in the active fire zones. Smoke from these and other fires in western Canada will likely be drawn by the jet stream across the Great Lakes and northeast states and it may eventually bring about a month or two of colourful sunsets in western Europe in perhaps June-July.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


I would call the upcoming trend more of a warm spell than a heat wave but some may find it hot at times next week, more likely those in the central, western and northwestern counties. This won't be quite as settled a spell as some of the heat waves in the summer of 2013 presented (after the rain on Saturday). Also we don't expect temperatures to get much past the low 20s at any point, while "heat wave" would probably imply blazing sunshine and highs from 25 to 30 to many. Then there's the sea breeze cooling factor in case you wanted to lounge on the beach, water temperatures off the east coast are barely above 10 degrees and the air coming inland from that will have a chill that may push in past the Dublin conurbation (big word, thought I would show off a bit) ... But whether it's a warm spell or a heat wave or a cool sea breeze with sunshine, it's a vast improvement on most of April. It's almost as warm as December.

(and my coding is fixed too )

TODAY ... Sunshine gradually fading behind increasing and thickening high cloud except perhaps in some parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. Light breezes will become moderate easterly near east and south coasts by afternoon. Highs 13-16 C and possibly a bit higher well inland if the sun stays out.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at first will move into the southeast around midnight and will spread slowly to Munster and the southern half of Leinster, with amounts by morning 5-10 mm. Lows 12-15 C. Further north, cloudy with a few clear breaks, spots of drizzly light rain just before morning in some areas and lows 8-10 C. Winds moderate northeast (30-50 km/hr) in places exposed to east and south coasts, otherwise rather light easterly.

SATURDAY ... The no pain no gain theme kicks in with rain spreading rather rapidly across the south into the west, leaving parts of north Leinster and east Ulster with rather light and briefer rainfall. As a consequence, further amounts will vary from 5-10 mm in many places to 10-20 mm in some parts of central Munster and Connacht. The rain appears likely to become quite heavy and possibly thundery before pushing out to sea around Mayo in the late afternoon, but many places could have some partial clearing just before the day ends. Highs 13-15 C with winds generally NE 40-60 km/hr shifting later to SE 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Warm and humid, morning low cloud and mist or fog will gradually break to partly cloudy skies, some spells of warm sunshine and just a slight risk of isolated showers in moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows will be 12-14 C and highs 19-22 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY looks fairly settled and warm although south coast could be brushed by weak areas of rain staying mostly offshore and moving west across Cork and Kerry on one or two occasions. Some sunny intervals are likely each day although the pattern looks rather cloudy at times despite the warmth. Lows of 12-15 C and highs of 19-23 C will continue with easterly winds adding some cooling effects to the Leinster and some Munster coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is quite speculative, these blocking easterly spring patterns allow little skill in model projections beyond a week, and there are some signs that the easterly flow will back to northerly at times. Even so, the main thrust of colder air moving south will be over eastern Britain at that time, and across the North Sea into central Europe. So while it may turn considerably cooler there, effects on temperatures in Ireland may be more subtle, with highs more into the normal 15-18 C range. There is probably a mentionable chance of the spell intensifying to warmer conditions at some point too. The El Nino pattern has rapidly broken down although the atmospheric signal remains fairly unchanged upstream for the time being. The next signal to go may be the eastern Atlantic cold pool, but as we approach summer it's probably to your advantage to retain that colder sea surface as it tends to promote blocking high pressure to the northeast.

My local weather on Thursday was so non-descript that I had to ask for a reminder of it, apparently it was featureless, partly cloudy and near 17 C. The Alberta fire situation has evolved somewhat with significant forward movement taking much of the firestorm situation beyond the city affected (Fort McMurray) and into less populated but more densely forested areas. Smoke from these fires has reached almost as far south as North Dakota now behind a cold front that will drop temperatures there and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan from Thursday's record highs near 35 C to a more temperate 15 C. That has set off a few rather sporadic thunderstorms and a more organized frontal band will push east through today and tomorrow, allowing a brief warmup on the east coast to be followed by a few days of quite chilly weather (predicted high in Ottawa on Monday is 8 C after 23 on Saturday).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain spreading rather rapidly towards the northwest, leaving parts of north Leinster and east Ulster with rather light and briefer rainfall, also west Kerry appears likely to see smaller amounts. As a consequence, further amounts will vary from 5-10 mm in many places (2-5 mm west Kerry) to 10-20 mm in some parts of central Munster and Connacht. The rain appears likely to become quite heavy and possibly thundery before pushing out to sea around Mayo in the late afternoon, but many places could have some partial clearing just before the day ends. Highs 13-15 C with winds generally NE 40-60 km/hr shifting later to SE 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Warm and humid, morning low cloud and mist or fog will gradually break to partly cloudy skies, some spells of warm sunshine and just a slight risk of isolated perhaps thundery showers in moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. These are most likely to break out in the inland south to west but coverage will be spotty. Overnight lows will be very mild at 12-14 C and highs quite warm at 19-22 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY looks fairly settled and warm although south coast could be brushed by weak areas of rain staying mostly offshore and moving west across Cork and Kerry on one or two occasions. Some sunny intervals are likely each day although the pattern looks rather cloudy at times despite the warmth. Lows of 12-15 C and highs of 19-23 C will continue with easterly winds adding some cooling effects to the Leinster and some Munster coasts. However, highs of 14-17 C are more likely within 20 kms of the east and the south coasts.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will probably turn a few degrees cooler in northeast backing to north-northwest winds. A few showers may herald the arrival of this colder regime and a few more could develop but average rainfalls are expected to be only about 2-5 mm. Highs will drop back to about 15-17 C and possibly a bit cooler near the Irish Sea.

FURTHER OUTLOOK currently indicates a long spell of rather average sort of mid to late May conditions with showers at times and highs 14-16 C.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and warm with a high near 20 C. The heat from earlier this week was moving rapidly east across Wisconsin and Michigan where some highs reached 32 C, but this intensity of heat will not be felt tomorrow further east as the air mass is rapidly lifted off the surface ahead of a fast-moving cold front -- around 23 C is the likely result in the lower Great Lakes, and highs will be similar on Sunday in New England in this one-day warmup amidst otherwise cooler than average days. The western warmth will rebuild and highs in Alberta tomorrow will be close to 32 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals developing, scattered and rather light showers moving northwest, more frequent at first in east Ulster and parts of Leinster, then some clusters of heavier and possibly thundery showers mainly to the west of Leinster but possible in the inland portions of Leinster also. These may not be very extensive but watch for an update once development is about to begin this afternoon. Rainfall amounts in most cases will be limited to about 2-5 mm but could reach 10 mm in a few spots. It will be warm and humid for most (highs of 18-20 C) although the southeast winds at 30-50 mph will tend to keep temperatures lower near east and south coasts (13-16 C).

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild and humid, a few more light showers possible but amounts slight, lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, warm and humid, outbreaks of showery and possibly thundery rain near south coast by afternoon and evening, 5-15 mm in a few parts of Cork and Waterford, south Kerry. Highs generally 18-20 C but 13-15 C near east and south coast where some fog or mist may drift inland a few kilometres. Winds east-southeast 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Southern half of the country is now expected to receive an interval of moderate to heavy rain but this will likely not last all day and there could be some more pleasant intervals. The northern half will probably remain dry and partly cloudy. Morning lows 10-13 C. Winds east 30-50 km/hr, once again promoting cooler sea breezes in the Dublin region, but otherwise highs around 17 to 19 C (14 to 16 in rain).

WEDNESDAY ... Further rain or thunderstorms in the south, probably continuing dry in Ulster and some parts of north Connacht and north Leinster, if rather cloudy (best chance for sunshine will be around Inishowen and Derry). Lows 11-13 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, fresher as winds become more northeast at 30 to 50 km/hr, but more sunshine keeping temperatures roughly similar, lows 9-12 and highs 17-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C east and north, 16 to 19 C southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled, temperatures close to normal values by next weekend (highs 14-17 C) then the possibility of another somewhat warmer interval by early to middle of following week.

During the next few days, somewhat warmer temperatures are likely in Britain and isolated heavy thunderstorms could redevelop. The longer term outlook is similar though.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with highs near 26 C despite cool sea breezes keeping it closer to 20 C at the seafront. A weak cold front has just passed without rain and Sunday (which is Mothers' Day in North America) is expected to be partly cloudy and around 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday 8 May 2016 _ 5:45 pm

Isolated thunderstorms may develop this evening in eastern Connacht, north Clare and west Ulster. Possibly 10 to 20 per cent areal coverage will be seen by about 7 or 8 p.m., cells will be small but potentially quite active and they will tend to move northwest at about 30-40 knots. If one of these develops in your vicinity, expect a brief interval of heavy rain and a few lightning strikes, nothing too severe is foreseen but radar being watched closely. Anything more severe will prompt a further update.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of showery rain, with some thundery bursts possible, across Munster and south Leinster, east winds 30-50 km/hr, about 5-15 mm of rain (the heavier amounts Cork to Bantry) and highs 15-17 C. Partly cloudy, warm and humid further north with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, some places remaining dry all day with good sunny intervals most likely in west Ulster, highs 18-21 C. Some rather chilly sea breezes could develop in the Dublin region, whether they last or just come in for part of the day, temperatures associated will be 13-15 C. Sea mist or fog may drift inland near outer south coast and in a few spots mainly to north of Dublin on east coast.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming light and drizzly in south, mostly cloudy and very milld elsewhere, lows 11-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Heavier rain with occasional thunder is likely to push west from Waterford to Kerry, 15-30 mm potential. A little further north, Wexford to south Clare, rainfall amounts of 5-10 mm are more likely. Central and northern counties may remain largely dry with isolated showers and thunderstorms, warm and humid, highs will range from 14 C in the rainy southwest to 19-22 C in the inland northwest. Once again, chilly sea breezes on the east coast could suppress temperatures to 14-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The earlier rain will quickly fragment to showers in southern and then central counties and the trend will be towards more widespread dry intervals and some sunshine in most places, lows 11-14 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, just a few brief and isolated showers, lows 11-14 C and highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, turning slightly cooler due to a more northerly component to the east wind, lows 8-10 C and highs 17-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some rather pleasant and dry weather seems more likely now for the weekend (highs 16-18 C) then increasing cloud and rain at times during the following week as more of a southwesterly flow develops. It should stay a bit warmer than average.

BRITAIN will have a lot of these same trends although eastern counties will briefly turn considerably cooler next weekend as a weak northerly flow just catches them, a more robust cooling trend is likely in west-central Europe and Scandinavia.

My local weather on Sunday was partly sunny, breezy and rather cool with highs of about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday 9 May __ 6:30 p.m.
_____________________________________

(1) ALERT issued for possible heavy and flooding rainfall in coastal south Wexford and Waterford, now to 8 p.m., some chance that this will hover just offshore and brush the coast but rather close call, if the heaviest (and thundery) rain hits land around Wexford and Waterford (towns) then there could be some urban flooding there as a result, and flooding of poorly drained rural land in the vicinity. This should be past Waterford by 8 p.m. and a further alert may then be necessary for coastal regions as far west as Cobh and Cork, watch for updates.

(2) Some minor tweaking of forecasts ... tomorrow now appears more likely to see a more even distribution of rain across south and south-central regions rather than concentrated on west Munster, and maximum amounts may therefore not be quite as high, more like a general 10-20 mm to fall south of a Dublin to Galway line and a slow spreading north of light rain to cut off the warm, dry spell as far north as a Westport to Longford to Drogheda line eventually. Then on Wednesday what is left of this northward-moving band of rain will begin to fragment as showers and could extend even further north before dying out entirely. Another new wrinkle is that some heavy thundery showers could be expected Friday night and Saturday morning in west Munster, will check that more extensively in the morning forecast.

24 degrees recorded at several northern stations today and the chance of a 25 or thereabouts maximum reading. Yesterday was the warmest 8th of May in the 245 years of record in the "Central England" temperature series, breaking a record set in 1867 by over one degree (provisionally). I'm sure that yesterday and today would (in central and northern counties at least) be one of the warmest days at this time of year in Irish weather records too but I don't have a full set of those available, perhaps somebody else could comment on previous records there.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday 9 May __ 8 p.m.

The ALERT for heavy rainfall in the southeast is now extended to midnight for areas previously mentioned (Wexford, Waterford) and the area is extended to include parts of south Carlow, Kilkenny, Cork and west Waterford mainly from about 9 p.m. to 3 a.m. in those areas. Development continues to pulse mainly offshore with bands moving inland, potential is certainly there for eventual totals of 20-30 mm on land this evening and overnight, flooding could develop in any places that experience longer bursts of heavy rain (in the counties mentioned).

Further updates are likely to be reserved for the morning forecast but I may issue that quite early if situation is fluid.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Outbreaks of showery rain across central counties from east to west this morning will bring 5-15 mm to counties between Dublin and Galway; the south will have a largely dry morning if rather cloudy, and the north will see a few spin-off showers but also some dry intervals with sunny breaks. Later this morning a second area of showers will follow much the same path across central counties, then by afternoon and evening, heavier rain from the southeast will arrive in the southern counties while the central counties have a turn for drying out. So basically it's a three-part drama with the north staying largely dry. Highs will reach 20 C or a little higher in parts of the north, 17 C where rain is more frequent (15 C if a seabreeze is added to that in east winds of 30-50 km/hr).

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing at times in the south, with totals from today reaching 20-30 mm in places. Cloudy, breezy and very mild further north. Lows 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The southern rain will once again push north into central counties but this time with some chance of heavier thunderstorms developing because with some sunny breaks there could be more development of some showers. Winds east to northeast 30-50 km/hr, highs near 22 C in some places with longer dry intervals, temperatures near 15-17 C in rainy intervals.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue in this same warm flow from the east but with considerably less rain around, more frequent sunshine, this should more than offset a slight cooling of the atmosphere aloft and bring more widespread highs in the high teens and low 20s. Nights will continue quite mild at 10-12 C and any showers would be quite isolated and brief, most likely confined to west Munster or Mayo and more likely Friday in those cases.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler but plenty of sunshine both days, nights will feel colder but days may not feel that different with the stronger sunshine. Lows 3-7 C and highs 14-17 C.

NEXT WEEK looks quite warm too with a developing southwest flow and despite some cloud and showers, it should be a bit above the mid-May average at 15-19 C.

Over in BRITAIN today's developing heavy rainfall in south-central England is the seed for the later rainfall in the south of Ireland; heavy falls are expected also in south Wales.

My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny, high near 17 C, with a lot more cloud and showers just inland a few miles in a rather cool northerly flow. A mixture of sleet and snow has developed over central Montana and severe storms were widespread the past two days in the plains states.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Warm spell lasts to Friday, but still reasonably pleasant temperatures for the weekend and next week, easterly flow about to revert to more standard southwesterlies


TODAY ... Scattered outbreaks of light rain in Ulster and border regions of Leinster may spread to parts of north Connacht giving 3-7 mm before dying out early afternoon. Heavier rain could arrive in the southeast by mid-afternoon from its current location in western England. Most guidance suggests that the 15-30 mm rain expected there will diminish to 5-10 mm for its later push across southern Ireland but we will keep a close eye on developments. There will be a slight risk of isolated thunderstorms in west-central counties, watch for updates. Highs should reach 18-22 C in most places, could be held to about 15 C in onshore flow near east, south coasts in ENE 30-50 km/hr breezes.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, last of the showers departing west Munster, isolated sprinkles of rain elsewhere mainly Ulster, lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and continued humid in south but somewhat drier in north, highs 18-23 C. A few thundery showers could develop in Mayo and west Galway, as well as Kerry. Winds E-NE 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with long spells of sunshine inland north, west, risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms in west Munster. Winds northeast to north 30-50 km/hr. Lows 8-11 C and highs 17-20 C south, 14-17 C north.

SATURDAY ... Winds will continue to back around through north to northwest, although the flow will slacken in the west with the approach of a high pressure ridge. It will be generally cooler but quite bright with only a slight risk of isolated showers in east Ulster mainly. Lows 3-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, risk of isolated frost in the early morning, but pleasant in the daytime, lows 1-4 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, a bit warmer again, lows 4-7 C and highs 15-19.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures, occasional showers, adding up to normal amounts of rain in the week to follow. Charts are showing the potential for very warm weather to return around the 24th to 27th.

As mentioned, heavy rain is moving slowly west through southern England towards Wales. Amounts of 15-30 mm have already fallen and 10-20 mm more is expected. Some roadway flooding on the M-4 and other routes between ferry crossings from Ireland and Bristol, London or Midlands could be expected (if you're already en route especially). This should give way to mainly dry conditions by tonight and tomorrow.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and the high near 19 C. Colder air has pooled over Montana behind a slow-moving low, and some places have seen about 10 cm of snow with a cold rain in slightly lower elevations there. This will change to all rain as it moves out into the northern plains states and leaves the higher elevations but it will be a cold rain with strong northwest winds for the Dakotas. Relatively warm with showers and thunderstorms further east.