Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2016 09:32PM

Thanks dacogawa, I must have block copied my reply as I often do in case it doesn't post properly but then got distracted for a minute and went over to post on the IWO facebook page where you found the above, not realizing I had not pressed post. Then my computer goes into sleep mode when I do, and it reboots during the night at some point while doing the security checks ... good thing there were no big revisions of earlier forecast anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2016 08:30AM

Tuesday, 16 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

My apologies for the mixup yesterday, the previous post explains what happened there, and thanks again to Dacogawa for taking the trouble to post the forecast.

TODAY ... Windy and milder with occasional rain, a further 10-15 mm possible in parts of the west, 5-10 more likely elsewhere. Southerly winds will veer southwesterly 70-110 km/hr, strongest gusts near west and south coasts. Highs about 10 or 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Turning colder again with a few more showers mainly in Connacht and west Munster, squally at times but winds moderating later to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry on higher ground. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild although some guidance brings in colder air for Sunday in Connacht and Ulster. Highs will probably be near 12 C on Saturday and we'll say 9 to 11 C Sunday in case there is a bit of a cooling trend, although 12-13 C in the south remains possible.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy and turning much colder on Monday with chance of snow showers in a brisk northwest wind, highs only 3-6 C. After a slight moderation on Tuesday, another cold spell will follow and it looks rather cold right through Leap Year Day. This cold weather may be mainly dry with sharp to severe frosts when high pressure crests over Ireland around Thursday.

The east coast of the U.S. will be shaking off some nasty sleet and freezing rain about mid-day in favour of rain and milder temperatures (10-13 C) but airport delays may persist for a while. The storm centre is near Pittsburgh PA at this time, heading for Montreal. Anywhere north of that track could see a heavy snowfall today (20-40 cms in eastern Ontario and north of Montreal, freezing rain heavy at times near the track). Meanwhile it remains wet and mild in the far west, my weather on Monday was overcast with fog and drizzle or rain, and the high was 12 C.

Now let's see if I can remember to send this today.

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2016 08:47AM

Wednesday, 17 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry except near sea level. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, some frost likely with lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, some dry intervals in south but frequent showers or intervals of rain central and north, highs near 12 C south and 8 C in the north. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be windy and colder, except that the southeast may retain a bit of warmth to mid-day Sunday. Highs there could reach 8-10 C but otherwise temperatures will stall around 4-6 C on Sunday as showers become increasingly mixed and wintry. Then Monday will continue this theme only with stronger northwest winds developing. A mixture of cloud and sunshine with passing showers, a few of which could contain hail and thunder, becoming wintry on higher ground. Highs 5-8 C. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Continued quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, turning a bit milder with occasional light rain mostly in north. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It seems likely to remain mild although some guidance brings in colder air for Sunday in Connacht and Ulster. Highs will probably be near 12 C on Saturday and we'll say 9 to 11 C Sunday in case there is a bit of a cooling trend, although 12-13 C in the south remains possible. There is a possibility of some quite heavy snow showers in the west and north on Sunday spreading further east by Sunday night, and redeveloping on Monday when highs will only reach 3 to 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is rather mixed, if we average it out it looks like this -- slightly milder mid-week, highs 7-9 C, some rain developing, then windy and colder late in the week, winds turning northerly or northeasterly, slight risk of east coast snow streamers, and quite cold right through the final weekend of the month and Leap Year Day (which is a Monday).

This colder scenario will be if anything more pronounced for Britain as some of the days with northeast winds could have stronger gusts there. But in general it will be the same regime, a bit colder than normal overall, perhaps preventing this from beating out 1868-69 as the mildest winter on record -- that winter had nothing on December 2015 but January 1869 beat this January by quite a wide margin and it looks like February 1869 might repeat that. It does seem fairly certain that if this winter missed the top spot, it would easily finish second. It will be interesting to discover whether Ireland's winter beats an existing record, as well as how far back that might extend (in the case of Central England it goes way, way back to 1659).

The snowstorm we discussed for eastern Ontario and upstate New York hit and produced 55 cm of snow near Rochester, NY and similar amounts near Ottawa. It was mostly freezing rain in Montreal and straight rain further south, with temperatures rebounding as much as 45 Celsius degrees in Vermont (from -32 to +13) over the past two days. This storm has now moved into Labrador and will be southwest of Greenland by tonight. Meanwhile, the west remains very mild, and today the sun came out for a while boosting temperatures to near 14 C.

Please note, my forecast may be a bit late appearing on Thursday morning, I won't be "in the office" so to speak until after 0930h due to travel plans.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2016 11:47AM

Thursday, 18 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY will remain cold with a few passing wintry showers, some sunshine especially eastern counties, highs 3-7 C.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud and still a slight risk of wintry showers, lows about 1 to 3 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be milder days generally with occasional light rain and highs near 12 C in the south, 8 C in the north.

SUNDAY will begin to turn colder with temperatures falling to 2-4 C in the northwest, 8 C southeast by afternoon. There will be some snow showers by late afternoon and evening in Connacht and Ulster.

MONDAY will also be breezy and cold, highs 2-5 C, some snow showers possible but mostly over higher parts of northwest.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder mid-week, but back to rather cold and windy, possibly sleety or a rain-snow mix by Thursday and Friday of next week.

My weather experience on Wednesday was quite interesting as I had to make a road trip south, quite variable conditions from warm sunshine one place to very heavy rain near Portland, high overcast other spots, and quite warm for mid-February, about 13-17 C most of the time. Back home now and it's foggy and drizzly with 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-02-2016 09:14AM

Friday, 19 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, long dry intervals but a few light showers mainly in western counties, milder with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, mild, rain developing in west. Lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain will be heavier in central counties where 10-20 mm possible, while somewhat cooler in north (8-10 C) it will remain mild further south at 11-13 C. Moderate southwest winds at times.

SUNDAY ... Connacht and west Ulster will begin to turn colder with rain showers turning sleety then wintry, snow on hills by evening, temperatures there falling from 7 C to about 1-3 C. Other regions will turn slightly colder after mid-day starting with morning temperatures of 8-11 C and ending up around 5-7 C with a few rain showers (5-10 mm) trending further south. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr veering northwest by evening.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be quite cold with the risk of snow on higher terrain especially north and west, windy at times (northwest 50-80 km/hr) and highs only 4-7 C with slight frosts in some inland locations each morning.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder midweek with intervals of rain, becoming a wintry mixture towards Thursday morning in parts of the southwest as colder air wraps around low pressure areas near the east coast, intermittent cold rain elsewhere. Even colder towards end of the month with sharp frosts developing, some sunny intervals by day and highs only 2-5 C while lows fall to about -4 C.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few intervals of light rain and highs near 8 C. It continues to be colder in eastern North America where arctic high pressure near upstate New York controls the pattern, some snow developing in the upper Great Lakes along weak warm fronts there.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2016 08:06AM

Saturday, 20 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather mild and breezy, highs 11-13 C, with persistent rain in some counties between Galway-Clare and Dublin-Wicklow, where 20-30 mms could be recorded; eventually some of this heavier rain will appear closer to the south coast as well. Further north, it will be occasional light rain with somewhat cooler temperatures (8-10 C). Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further light rain (5-10 mm) and mild, lows 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Colder air will gradually push into Connacht and west Ulster but it will remain mild to late afternoon elsewhere with highs 10-12 C. Temperatures will fall slowly to about 5 C in the northwest. Occasional rain may produce a few heavier bursts in the southeast at times, and late in the day showers may become mixed and wintry on higher ground in the north and west, as winds veer more to northwest by evening.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be generally dry but very cold days with sharp frosts (lows -4 to -1 C) and cool highs of 4-7 C under partly cloudy to sunny skies. There could be a few isolated wintry showers mainly wherever north to northeast winds come inland.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be marginally milder but with more moisture in the lower levels, outbreaks of sleet or rain could develop, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK for FRIDAY, WEEKEND and LEAP YEAR DAY ... This period is indicated to be quite cold on almost all guidance, but with somewhat different details. The general theme seems to be gradual development of strong low pressure south of Ireland in the Biscay region, turning winds increasingly to a northeasterly direction. It is probably too early to speculate on details but some isolated sleet or snow could develop in this pattern, despite the generally dry nature of the cold air mass in place. Temperatures seem likely to run several degrees below late February normals, with highs only 3 to 7 C, and the risk of sharp frosts. It could turn slightly milder eventually, but towards the end of the month guidance splits into two rather different outcomes, one milder and one colder.

The above scenario also applies to most of BRITAIN, but it can be assumed that Scotland will run a bit colder most of the time.

My local weather on Friday was showery with a high near 11 C. The pattern across most of the continent is mild, with the east coast slowly warming up now as well. A fairly significant storm will develop early next week in the southern plains states but for the next three days nothing very active is happening except far to the north of most populated areas. Near the end of February, record cold temperatures can be expected to push south from central Canada.

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2016 08:26AM

Sunday, 21 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild in south and east, but turning gradually colder in north and west. Occasional light rain may give 2-5 mm in some areas. Highs 10-12 C except where temperatures begin to fall off in north Connacht and west Ulster this afternoon, around 6 C by early evening there.

TONIGHT ... The colder trend will accelerate and sweep through other regions quickly, then one or two wintry showers may develop but otherwise the cold air should be fairly dry with frost developing and some icy sections of roads encountered in northwest. Lows -2 to +2 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, at least some sunny intervals, and highs each day near 5 or 6 C. Tuesday morning will bring a sharp frost with lows -4 to +1 C.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties but will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, morning lows -4 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes.

FRIDAY to MONDAY (26 to 29 Feb) will be cold with east to northeast winds and some risk of coastal snow showers. Current guidance indicates a higher risk of snow in eastern Britain and we need to be on alert in case this trends further west, but for now the outlook is basically cold and dry with continued highs in the 5-8 C range and at least some frosts each night although cloud may prevent it near some coasts.

As mentioned, this pattern could bring higher chances of snow in Britain but otherwise a cold, dry theme will prevail there also, after today's very mild weather (highs of 11-13 C are expected in southern England today).

My local weather on Saturday turned out fairly pleasant, partly cloudy with highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2016 08:01AM

Monday, 22 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, dry in many places but some passing showers mainly in western and northern counties, some becoming wintry on higher terrain. Amounts rather slight (1-3 mm). Colder with some moderate northwest winds at times, highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, with a full moon. Lows -4 to +1 C. Some frost and icy roads in a few places, the low humidity may prevent some frost despite low enough temperatures.

TUESDAY will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, at least some sunny intervals, and highs near 5 or 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties but will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, morning lows -4 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance of a more organized trough bringing mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cold with a slight chance of sleet or snow showers in east to northeast winds. Temperatures colder than normal values, lows near freezing and highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning somewhat milder, winds turning more to southwest for a few days, but another cold spell seems likely to follow after a few days.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with a few intervals of rather heavy rain but clearing during the past few hours, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-02-2016 07:50AM

Tuesday, 23 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... will be bright and cold with isolated wintry showers, these more likely in Connacht and west Ulster, and for most places there will be at least some sunny intervals, and highs near 5 or 6 C. Northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, lows -5 to +1 C. Some sharp frosts and possible icy roads. Wintry showers may continue near northwestern coasts but mostly over inland hills.

WEDNESDAY will see somewhat greater risk of snow showers in northern counties and 1-3 cms could coat some hills in Ulster, but the day will otherwise remain dry and cold with some sunshine further south, with highs between 5 and 8 C.

THURSDAY will begin frosty in parts of the north and east with morning lows of -5 to -1 C, increased cloud may prevent frost in west and south but lows will be close to zero there, then the day could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes. Further inland it could become sleety with snow on hills in west-central and south-central counties. It is more likely to remain dry with a little sunshine at times in east Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance that a more organized trough will bring mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Risk of 2-5 cm snow on some hills. Cold northerly winds will redevelop in western half of the country by afternoon.

SATURDAY will continue very cold, morning lows -6 to -2 C, and highs about 3 to 7 C with raw northeast winds and the risk of some snow showers coming inland from Irish Sea, possibly mixing with sleet. Winds northeast 40-70 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling closer to -1 C).

SUNDAY will be less windy although just about as cold, with sharp frosts, lows of -6 to -2 C, highs 5 to 9 C (warmest in west Munster), and more frequent sunny intervals as well as more limited coverage of wintry showers, in fact it is likely to remain dry in many places.

MONDAY will become milder in southwest winds, with the risk of some heavy rain developing towards evening, persisting into Tuesday (1st of March), and temperatures will briefly rise to about 9 or 10 C in most regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain tapering to showers then windy and much colder again, mixed wintry showers mid-week with temperatures barely into 3-5 C range daytime, eventually another sharp frost then gradually milder.

Most of the above applies to BRITAIN except that there could be more widespread snow showers around Friday to Sunday especially in eastern counties south of about Newcastle.

Over the central U.S., a spring-like storm is forming over the Gulf states and could lead to some severe thunderstorms around Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Further north, rain moving north will start to turn to snow near Chicago and Detroit by late tonight and Wednesday. It will be rather mild on the east coast (near 10 C) and continued mild in the far west. My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers nearby and a high of 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-02-2016 07:54AM

Wednesday, 24 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Another very cold morning, with frost slow to clear in some sheltered spots, widespread sunshine later with just a few light snow or sleet showers in parts of Ulster and north Connacht where 1-3 cms could coat some hills by mid-day, with highs between 5 and 8 C for most, 2 to 5 C in higher parts of the north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold for most, increasing cloud near southwest coasts. Lows for most -5 to -1 C, but around zero to +2 C near some southern and western coasts.

THURSDAY will begin frosty in parts of the north and east with morning lows of -5 to -1 C, increased cloud may prevent frost in west and south but lows will be close to zero there, then the day could bring a slight rise in temperature for Munster and coastal Connacht, with highs of 8 or 9 C, but probably not elsewhere though as highs remain in the 5-7 C range. Rain is likely to develop close to the west coast and could spread into some coastal fringes. Further inland it could become sleety with snow on hills in west-central and south-central counties. It is more likely to remain dry with a little sunshine at times in east Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will continue quite cold and some rain near west Munster coasts could turn to sleet or snow inland over hills. Most other regions will be partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers but there is also a chance that a more organized trough will bring mixed wintry precipitation in central counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Risk of 2-5 cm snow on some hills although latest indications suggest cold rain or sleet below 250m above sea level. Cold northerly winds will redevelop in western half of the country by evening or overnight.

SATURDAY will continue very cold, morning lows -6 to -2 C, and highs about 3 to 7 C with raw northeast winds and the risk of some snow showers coming inland from Irish Sea, possibly mixing with sleet. Winds northeast 40-70 km/hr will add quite a chill (feeling closer to -1 C).

SUNDAY will be less windy although just about as cold, with sharp frosts, lows of -6 to -2 C, highs 5 to 9 C (warmest in west Munster), and more frequent sunny intervals as well as more limited coverage of wintry showers, in fact it is likely to remain dry in many places.

MONDAY will become milder in southwest winds, with the risk of some heavy rain developing across parts of the west, ending overnight into early morning of Tuesday (1st of March), as temperatures briefly rise to about 9 or 10 C in most regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain tapering to showers then windy and colder again, mixed wintry showers mid-week and again near the end of the week after some variable conditions, with temperatures by the end of the week (around the 4th to 5th of March) barely into 4-6 C range daytime, bringing another sharp frost.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and cool with a high of 9 C. Rain is spreading north towards the Great Lakes region overnight and will turn to heavy snow in St Louis, Chicago and other parts of the Midwest. Severe storms have been quite active on Tuesday and may redevelop in the Ohio valley and southeastern states today.

M.T. Cranium · 25-02-2016 08:15AM

Thursday, 25 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy, continued very cold for most, with a light rain near southwest coasts turning sleety inland by evening as it slowly pushes further east. The day should remain dry in most places with highs only 4 to 7C.

TONIGHT ... The sleety rain in parts of west Munster and coastal Connacht will edge further east and may turn to snow on hills at least above 250m above sea level. It will likely remain dry away from these two regions and while cold, the increase in cloud may prevent a sharp frost except perhaps in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster. Lows will range from -4 C in a few places there, to +2 C in coastal west Munster.

FRIDAY ... The light rain will continue to drift further east and may become somewhat heavier in the southeast (5-15 mm potential), also it may be quite sleety and mix with snow on hills (250 m above sea level the most likely transition zone). Some heavy falls of snow are possible on higher slopes in the south. Later, a second area of cold rain and hill snow may develop over north Connacht and west Ulster. North Leinster and east Ulster may see less rain or sleet and a few places could remain dry. Highs only 3 to 6 C generally.

SATURDAY ... The remnants of the mixed sleety precipitation will now drift westward as the trough weakens and a northeast wind flow takes over. This may lead to a few morning snow showers over hills in western counties, and a few mixed wintry showers coming inland from the Irish Sea, but the trend will be back to dry if rather cloudy weather with a better chance of sunny intervals by late afternoon. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C, winds northeast at 30 to 50 km/hr adding a chill.

SUNDAY ... A colder morning due to clearing skies, then some sunshine followed by increasing cloud. Lows -5 to +1 C and highs 4 to 8 C, mildest near west coast.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, milder, becoming breezy or windy later in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr) as temperatures gradually rise to 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning colder again with showers becoming mixed and wintry, highs near 5 C in northwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder again but then a rather lengthy cool spell that may also be reasonably dry. Frequent frosts and highs in the 6-9 C range.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and mild, the high 13 C. The heaviest snow from the eastern low was recorded in northwest Indiana where blizzard conditions prevailed. There were very heavy rainfalls in quite a few locations in the east, Baltimore had 66 mms but it was quite mild at 17 C.
This milder weather will be pushed out into the Atlantic by colder westerly winds today but the low which is now near Ottawa will bring snow to central Quebec and Labrador.

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2016 08:13AM

Friday, 26 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Light rain will continue to drift further east and may become somewhat heavier in the southeast (5-15 mm potential, elsewhere 3-7 mm), also it may be quite sleety and mix with snow on hills (250 m above sea level the most likely transition zone). Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may turn to sleet with some heavy falls of snow possible on higher slopes in the south. Later, a second area of cold rain and hill snow may develop over north Connacht and west Ulster. North Leinster and east Ulster may see less rain or sleet and a few places could remain dry. Lows will fall to about -2 C in those dry areas but will hold near +1 C where rain or sleet is falling and zero in any persistent snow.

SATURDAY ... The remnants of the mixed sleety precipitation will now drift westward as the trough weakens and a northeast wind flow takes over. This may lead to a few morning snow showers over hills in western counties, and a few mixed wintry showers coming inland from the Irish Sea, but the trend will be back to dry if rather cloudy weather with a better chance of sunny intervals by late afternoon. Highs will reach 4 to 7 C, with winds northeast at 30 to 50 km/hr adding a chill.

SUNDAY ... A colder morning due to clearing skies, then some sunshine followed by increasing cloud. Lows -5 to +1 C and highs 4 to 8 C, mildest near west coast. Winds generally light northeast or nearly calm.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, milder, becoming breezy or windy later in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr) as temperatures gradually rise to 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Not as mild after Tuesday morning with a gradual return to colder weather and occasional showers, a more organized sleety rain to snow mixture likely towards Friday 4th and Saturday 5th March, and cold, dry weather after that in light to moderate east winds, sharp frosts likely in the north about as far as we can see into the reliable time frame with a very low-energy blocked pattern developing, not as cold as March 2013 became (the first eight days of that month were not particularly cold) but colder than average for certain in at least the first half of March by 2-3 degrees.

My local weather by contrast was rather spring-like with some hazy sunshine and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2016 08:05AM

Saturday, 27 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The mixture of cold rain and hill snow in west Munster should end fairly soon, leaving most regions dry but overcast, with a few sunny breaks possible later. There could also be isolated sleety showers coming inland from the Irish Sea on a moderate (at times) easterly breeze 30-50 km/hr. Highs only 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing in most places with lows -5 to -1 C, a sharp frost likely and icy roads in some places.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, the frost gradually relenting and with light winds it may feel a bit warmer despite similar highs of 5 to 8 C. Overcast in the west by afternoon, and with this cloud spreading rapidly east, no frost is likely on Sunday night.

MONDAY ... Overcast with occasional rain, some heavier bursts and 10-20 mm generally, then becoming rather windy by late in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr) with morning lows 5-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued windy, reasonably mild early in the day but turning colder in stages with squally showers likely, some with hail. Lows 4-7 C and highs in the range of 6-9 C. Winds WNW 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold but somewhat milder by late in the day as winds back from northwest to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Occasional light rain will develop after some dry intervals. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild and breezy, occasional rain, highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (4-6 March) will turn a lot colder again, as winds turn more to the northwest then north in the wake of strong low pressure dropping southeast into central Europe. Mixed wintry showers may develop and highs will be only 4 to 7 C, slight frosts could develop away from milder coastal areas, and winds often gusting above 80 km/hr will add a chill.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Becoming more settled but continued quite cold with the risk of sharp to severe frosts as late as mid-month.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with brief sunny breaks and mild with highs near 14 C. There's a bit of light rain now, expected to clear away in the morning. Spring is well advanced here already, cherry blossoms are in the early budding stages (and from other plants, lots of people have their allergies going).

M.T. Cranium · 28-02-2016 08:29AM

Sunday, 28 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Isolated sleety showers in the Dublin region will soon dissipate, and any lingering frost or fog should gradually give way to more frequent sunny intervals, with light winds it may feel a bit warmer despite similar highs to recent days, of 5 to 8 C. Overcast again in the west by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, light rain developing in western counties (1-3 mm) and milder than recent nights, lows 5-7 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast with occasional rain, some heavier bursts and 10-20 mm generally, then becoming rather windy by late in the day (westerly 50-80 km/hr) with highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued windy, reasonably mild early in the day but turning colder in stages with squally showers likely, some with hail. Lows 4-7 C and highs in the range of 6-9 C. Winds WNW 50-80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, but somewhat milder by late in the day as winds back from northwest to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Occasional light rain will develop after some dry intervals. Early morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-8 C except near 10 C in west Munster.

THURSDAY ... Mild and breezy, occasional rain, highs near 11 C in south, about 8 or 9 C north, but turning quite cold by evening.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (4-6 March) will turn a lot colder again, as winds turn more to the northwest then north in the wake of strong low pressure dropping southeast into central Europe. Mixed wintry showers may develop and highs will be only 4 to 7 C, slight frosts could develop away from milder coastal areas, and winds often gusting above 80 km/hr will add a chill.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for slightly milder conditions mid-week (around 9th of March) followed by more cold, dry weather as a ridge develops to the north of Ireland connecting remnants of the Atlantic high with northern European high pressure -- there could even be a wintry feel to this spell around mid-month but this may not quite come about given the growing strength of the March sun -- nights could be as cold as we've seen all winter though.

Although BRITAIN should be broadly similar, there is more chance of snow showers developing around next weekend as eastern England will be quite close to the slow-moving low pressure system dropping southeast towards Belgium and eventually towards the Alps and northern Italy, so most of Europe will be in for some rather wintry conditions at some point in the next week to ten days.

My local weather on Saturday was misty with drizzle at times and the high was about 11 C. Very cold air is pressing south in central Canada but a weak low near Lake Michigan is going to hold that back long enough for a second low to form in Iowa, and eventually all of that activity will lead to some snow across the Great Lakes region with milder temperatures for the east coast.

M.T. Cranium · 29-02-2016 08:39AM

Monday, 29 February, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain is spreading across all regions and will start as wet snow or sleet in north Leinster and east Ulster, 2-3 cms could fall on some higher terrain. Temperatures will gradually rise to about 8-10 C but winds will increase from southwest veering to west 50-80 km/hr and it may not feel any milder than recent days as a result. About 15-20 mm of rain is likely for most regions.

TONIGHT ... A few showers in blustery westerly winds 60-90 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range 5-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, showers producing hail and then sleet, some snow by evening on higher terrain mostly. Temperatures will fall steadily after highs near 9 C in the morning hours or mid-day, and will reach 2-4 C by evening. Winds west to northwest 50-80 km/hr but possibly higher gusts in western coastal counties by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued windy and cold, mixed wintry showers, turning a bit milder in west Munster by evening. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C for most, 7-11 C in southwest. Winds westerly backing to southwest 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Briefly milder, rain or showers, highs near 10 C. Then turning much colder late in the day, rain may change to wet snow.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with wintry showers, highs near 6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold next weekend, slowly warming to about Tuesday of the following week but then turning cold again.

Over in BRITAIN the day is starting out quite frosty and some sleet or snow may develop before the rain arrives from the west. Otherwise it's about the same general sequence of events there as in Ireland this week.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast, windy with a few showers, highs near 10 C. Mild weather in the east will quickly turn to snow across the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, some heavy falls are possible (20-30 cms). That will be followed by very cold, but clear conditions. Not much snow is expected on the east coast except briefly when the colder air arrives.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2016 07:54AM

Tuesday, 1 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for snow in many parts of Ulster, north Leinster and inland northeast Connacht tonight and tomorrow morning, 3 to 6 cms possible, heaviest on higher terrain. Scattered 1 to 3 cm snowfalls may occur further south but this is expected to be mainly on higher ground exposed to northwest winds.

TODAY ... Rain ending in the southeast, some brief clearing, mild at first, then squally showers, risk of thunder and hail, gusty winds and turning colder. Further showers may begin to turn wintry during the afternoon especially in north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures near 10 C this morning will drop steadily when a fast-moving cold front arrives mid-day, reaching 4 C by late afternoon. Winds SW 50-80 km/hr veering to WNW 60-90 km/hr with some higher gusts near Donegal Bay and Galway Bay.

TONIGHT ... Widespread snow showers will give 3-6 cms in parts of Ulster, northeast Connacht and north Leinster, with isolated 1-3 cms amounts further south. Windy and very cold with showers still mixed near south coast and at sea level near west coast, but snow will dominate inland. Winds northwest and very blustery this evening, 60-100 km/hr then somewhat less windy after midnight. Lows -2 to +2 C but feeling closer to -5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued windy and cold, snow showers easing and becoming less widespread, then a trend to mixed showers and evening rain or sleet, highs near 7 C south and 4 C north.

THURSDAY ... Occasional rain or showers, a bit milder again for the first part of the day, then squally showers, much colder with showers increasingly wintry in west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Morning highs near 9 C then falling off to 3-5 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be windy and very cold with the risk of heavy snow streamers developing across north and east, isolated snow showers elsewhere. Highs only 4 to 7 C at best, lows -1 to +2 C. Winds northerly with slight northeast tendencies at times, 50-80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will see somewhat milder conditions after a cold, frosty start, with a risk of some sleet turning to light rain but also some dry intervals in the mix, lows around -3 C and highs 7-9 C.

NEXT WEEK is currently looking a bit milder than previously expected, in response to different signals over the western Atlantic, and some days may actually make it above 10 C in southwest winds, but a return to cold and unsettled conditions could occur late in the week.

This trend to cold and sometimes snowy conditions in some areas will also be the case for BRITAIN, the most likely areas to see snow mid-week would be western Scotland and northwest England, north-central Wales. By the weekend the snow threat in Britain would be mainly near the North Sea.

In NORTH AMERICA, a snowstorm is developing in Wisconsin and will move across Michigan into Ontario. Some places could see 20-30 cms of snow. A narrow band of sleet or freezing rain will affect the lower Great Lakes mainly near Chicago, Detroit and Buffalo. This storm will be followed by a surge of quite cold but clearing weather then a secondary snow storm will develop south of the Great Lakes and move to Virginia around Friday-Saturday. That one could give 10-15 cms of snow south of Washington DC. Meanwhile it remains quite mild in the west. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with just a few brief showers, and highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2016 08:11AM

Wednesday, 2 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very windy conditions this morning, expect occasional severe gusts with less blustery intervals to continue off and on through much of the day although with a very gradual moderation. Also, some further snow or hail showers are likely and roads could become slippery during and after these. There may also be further lightning strikes especially in parts of the inland south.

TODAY ... Very windy to start, the mixed showers with some severe wind gusts and lightning, hail associated, have changed back and forth from snow to sleet and rain and may continue to do so at times, with the usual tendencies for snow to be more frequent on hills. Winds west-northwest at 80 to 120 km/hr should moderate slightly by afternoon. Highs 5 to 8 C but feeling more like -2 C in the strong winds.

TONIGHT ... Less windy, some local clearing may lead to sharp frosts, ice fog in a few spots, but one or two mixed wintry showers will still feed in from west to northwest. Lows -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Some bright intervals in east, mostly cloudy elsewhere, outbreaks of light rain will develop mid-day (5-8 mm) and it will be slightly milder with highs 7-9 C. However, colder and more blustery northwest winds will develop in some western counties towards the end of the day.

FRIDAY ... Windy and very cold, early morning snow may become heavy on north and east facing slopes in Leinster. At this point, I am expecting 5-15 cm snowfalls above 200m on Dublin and Wicklow hills, patchy 2-5 cm coverage lower down with sleet and cold rain in the mix. Winds will settle into the northeast at 50-80 km/hr adding quite a raw feel to the day. Some sunny intervals may develop in west Munster but isolated wintry showers are possible all over the country, more organized bands of mixed precipitation in Leinster (as low pressure develops over Wales). Morning lows -1 to +1 C and highs only 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Further snow showers are quite likely in strong northerly winds, some further accumulations likely (3-5 cms on hills mainly). The showers may become more mixed later in the day. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with wintry showers and highs near 6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder next week, although not much milder than average for early March (highs 9-12 C).

Over in BRITAIN today's windy and squally conditions are just about to hit with full force and they will be severe across the south most of the day with some gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed locations. The trend to Friday will then be similar to the Irish forecast, but once the low settles in over Wales, some very heavy snowfall is possible there and in some parts of western England (20 cms or more on some hills in south Wales). There may be some disruptions to road travel such as the M-4 route to London.

Meanwhile, heavy snow pushed across the central Great Lakes region on Tuesday with reports of 20-30 cms in Michigan and some parts of Ontario. Freezing rain has coated regions near Lake Erie and will push into upstate New York and northern New England today; the heavy snow will head for Ottawa and central Quebec. This storm is followed by clear, cold and windy weather but a second weaker snowfall producing low will push out of the plains states towards Virginia late in the week, 5-15 cm snowfalls are expected in states from Kentucky to Virginia. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain and a chilly wind, highs about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2016 08:10AM

Thursday, 3 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain in central counties will spread slowly to the east coast by late morning. Western counties will enjoy a brief milder interlude with highs near 10 C, and it will be close to 8 C in the east. Towards late afternoon, much colder weather will set in across the country, with a few blustery hail or snow showers possible. There may also be some more lightning. While there is some potential for wind gusts to 70 km/hr, this won't become a very windy outbreak.

TONIGHT ... As winds fall off to rather slack 30-50 km/hr, mixed wintry showers will become fairly widespread with brief clear intervals in the mix. Very cold with lows -3 to +1 C. Frost and ice will develop rapidly.

FRIDAY ... Some areas of wet snow or sleet are likely to consolidate near the Dublin and Wicklow mountains and could turn to a heavy snowfall (10-15 cms) there, but otherwise, most regions will see alternating periods of sleet, wet snow and rain with mostly slushy accumulations of 1-3 cms in a few places. Winds across the south will remain rather light and variable, but a strong northeast wind will develop from about Dublin to Galway northwards, and this may result in some heavy but sleety streamers around Leinster. It will be quite a cold day with highs only 3 to 6 C at best and close to +1 C on higher terrain.

SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, some mixed wintry showers, and gusty north to northeast winds 60-90 km/hr adding quite a chill, lows -4 to +1 C and highs 4 to 8 with the higher readings in west Munster. Locally heavy snowfalls possible on north-facing slopes in both Leinster and Connacht.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers at times, continued windy and cold. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northerly or northwesterly 50-80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Turning milder next week, highs 10-12 C by midweek.

In BRITAIN, the snow may become quite heavy tonight and Friday in some parts of Wales and central England. There may also be heavy snow showers in other places throughout the weekend, depending on where and when streamers form in generally north to northeast winds.

Some snow is also heading for Kentucky, southern Ohio, West Virginia and Virginia in the next day or two. It will remain quite cold further north, but mainly dry. The west has cooled to more average temperatures in recent days. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with some brief showers and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-03-2016 08:02AM

Friday, 4 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for snowfall in Leinster this morning, most places will see 2 to 5 cms by about 0900h then this will change to rain and accumulations will become slushy before melting ... however, much heavier snowfalls are possible on higher portions of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains, 5 to 15 cms and a change to rain will come later (or not at all near summit levels).

TODAY ... Periods of snow in Leinster will eventually turn to rain this morning except on higher terrain. Most locations will have 2-5 cms, hills could see 5-15 cms. Northeast winds 40-70 km/hr will make it feel quite raw. About 5-10 mm of rain will follow, there will be a rather slushy transition later this morning. ... In other regions, a few mixed wintry showers but also brighter intervals. Winds will increase gradually across the south to northerly 40-70 km/hr. Highs in all regions will be around 4 to 7 C except 1 to 3 C on snow-covered hills.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold with passing mixed and wintry showers in a few areas, clear intervals also. Lows -3 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with snow showers in some northern and western counties, isolated mixed wintry showers elsewhere. Winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr, highs 4 to 8 C (highest readings south coast).

SUNDAY ... Clear and very cold to start in most places, then increasing cloud, outbreaks of sleet or snow possible, some accumulations on hills. Lows of -4 to +1 C, highs 3 to 7 C. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Mixed sleet, snow and rain at times, lows 0-2 C and highs 3-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Becoming much milder with highs 10-13 C later in the week.

In BRITAIN, the low will bring intervals of snow, sleet and cold rain, some heavy accumulations possible in Wales and central England today.

My local weather on Thursday began with fog and rain, but some clearing and milder by afternoon, highs near 12 C. Light snow will affect parts of the eastern U.S. especially between Philadelphia and Norfolk VA today, and another area of light snow will slide southeast from the northern plains states towards the Great Lakes region. It will be turning very mild in central regions over the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 05-03-2016 08:50AM

Saturday, 5 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few isolated wintry showers, most likely in northwestern counties, but generally dry with some sunshine at times, cold northerly winds 40-60 km/hr and highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, widespread frost and icy roads likely to be encountered in some rural areas. Lows -4 to +1 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud followed by rain or sleet, hill snow in southwest and west, but probably staying dry in north and east, southeast. Cold with highs 3 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... A frosty and possibly icy start to the day especially in areas where wintry showers have occurred, north-central to southeast most likely at risk, lows -4 to +2 C then variable cloud, some further wintry showers and continued quite cold with highs 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Briefly quite mild with rain developing, gusty south to southwest winds veering sharply to northwest or north late in the day as much colder air returns behind a well-defined cold front moving rapidly southeast, gusts to about 80 km/hr, highs 9 to 12 C but then falling to 3-7 C later in the day in the north and west. This sharp drop in temperature will reach the east and south by the evening or overnight.

WEDNESDAY ... A cold start but quickly recovering back towards 10 C as this series of cold fronts is overcome by a more dominant Atlantic southwesterly flow, and it should remain fairly mild for several days once this becomes established by Thursday. Highs 11 to 14 C later in the week, rain at times but also some dry intervals.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with rain becoming heavy by later in the day, mild with highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-03-2016 08:52AM

Sunday, 6 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast with light rain developing across western counties, spreading gradually into central counties by afternoon. East likely to remain dry with a few brighter intervals. Rain may mix with sleet on higher terrain well inland. Highs 4 to 8 C mildest in west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle with some sleet or isolated hill snow and lows about 1-3 C for most but with some frosty or icy patches in north Leinster and east Ulster.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain or sleet, cold. Highs 4 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat milder with occasional rain (totals over three days will be 15-30 mm in parts of the west but much less in east). Highs near 10 C. Turning colder late in the day in Connacht.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and cold in most regions with showers or light rain for the morning then a bit milder again, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages, possibly very mild at times. Highs 13-15 C by Friday and Saturday.

My local weather was overcast with a few sunny breaks and very mild, highs broke daily records around the region (17 C at my location).

M.T. Cranium · 07-03-2016 08:22AM

Monday, 7 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, some light sleety rain showers will pass through Leinster this morning giving only 1-2 mm then it should become mainly dry this afternoon. Still rather cold with highs 5-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain, not as cold as recent nights, lows 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers becoming more isolated, some sunny breaks may develop as it turns quite mild for the afternoon, highs 9-12 C. Moderate southwest winds developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT ... Low pressure will develop rather quickly near the south coast and pull in a strong northwest wind flow, with mixed wintry showers over northwestern hills, rain showers elsewhere, winds rising to northwesterly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 1-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The strong northwest winds won't last all day as the storm rapidly pulls away towards northern France. This will confine the chilly outbreak to the morning and allow milder air to return quickly during the afternoon, so highs may reach 8 to 10 C again. Some further showers or light rain may come and go.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY are looking quite mild with highs 10-13 C and it may become mainly dry as well with a few sunny breaks each day. Some guidance is showing colder air trying to push back from the east towards the end of the weekend, but this is rather uncertain.

The sequence of events will be a little slower for BRITAIN which will remain quite cold through to Tuesday mid-day. When the Tuesday night storm develops, it will reach southeast England by mid-day Wednesday, resulting in strong northerly winds in the London region Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Over most of NORTH AMERICA the weather pattern is rapidly warming. On Sunday, highs reached 24 C in North Dakota which is about 20 degrees above normal there. This warmth is gradually spreading further east. Meanwhile, my local weather on Sunday was a bit cooler than the previous day and windy, with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-03-2016 08:00AM

Tuesday, 8 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers but many places dry until evening. Moderate southwest breezes 40-60 km/hr developing. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming rather windy and turning colder (after midnight in east) as winds become northwest 50-80 km/hr, passing showers with some risk of hail, sleet or snow on hills in north mainly. Lows 1-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy with the strong northwest winds gradually easing and shifting to westerly 40-60 km/hr. A few more brief showers but some dry intervals too. Highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, just a slight chance of drizzle or light rain near northwestern coasts, otherwise largely dry. Morning lows about 3 to 5 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue fair and mild with some morning fog patches or mist, a few sunny breaks each day, and by the weekend winds falling off to light south or southeast. Morning lows could be close to freezing in a few inland parts of the southeast but generally 3-5 C, and afternoon highs will continue 11-14 C, possibly even higher in Connacht, west Munster.

OUTLOOK calls for this dry settled spell to continue although possibly with a slight drop in temperature and isolated showers developing mainly near the south coast as somewhat cooler air circulates around the high pressure area. Although confidence is low in this final point, models are suggesting a return to wet weather in about two weeks.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional light rain, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-03-2016 08:33AM

Wednesday, 9 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with this morning's strong northwest winds (gusts to 80 km/hr in exposed locations mainly west and south coasts) gradually easing and shifting to westerly 40-60 km/hr. A few more brief showers, some with hail or snow on higher slopes, but frequent dry intervals too. Highs 8-10 C but it will remain cold this morning, temperatures may be around 5 or 6 C by mid-day and the highs are likely to come in the late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing, ground fog or mist, lows 2-6 C. Isolated frost could be found in the inland southeast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, just a slight chance of drizzle or light rain near northwestern coasts, otherwise largely dry. Morning lows about 3 to 5 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue fair and mild with some morning fog patches or mist, a few sunny breaks each day, and by the weekend winds falling off to light south or southeast. Morning lows could be close to freezing in a few inland parts of the southeast but generally 3-5 C, even milder near Atlantic coasts, and afternoon highs will continue 11-14 C, possibly even higher in Connacht, west Munster (15 C possible).

OUTLOOK calls for this settled and mild weather to continue although with a slight cooling trend after the weekend, guidance varies about how much of a cooling trend that will be, probably just a degree or two each day until readings are back around 9 or 10 C by about the end of next week. There is not much rain currently indicated but eventually there will be a more normal amount of rain in the mix. Hopefully things will have a chance to dry out and water tables can drop to more normal levels during these drier days.

The intense low that formed off the south coast last night is slowly moving across southwest England en route to France, and very strong northerly winds have developed in Brittany, Cornwall and Devon. These will spread a bit further east but then the low will weaken. This will lead to a day of steady rain (20-30 mm) in parts of southeast England today. Their forecast will gradually shift to be closer to the above outlook for Ireland, but when milder air does arrive, it could be held to western regions of Britain by strong sea breezes off the North Sea. The effects of the Irish Sea in Leinster will be less of a factor although the immediate coast may be a couple of degrees cooler than further inland.

Mild to warm spring weather dominates in most parts of North America. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a bit of rain at times and the high was about 12 C.

Note, the new moon has come and gone overnight, and it produced a total eclipse of the Sun in parts of Indonesia. That was around 0200h Irish time.

M.T. Cranium · 10-03-2016 08:45AM

Thursday, 10 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, spotty light rain in Connacht and west Ulster, lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Light rain at times in Connacht and west Ulster, some parts of west Munster and north Leinster, 1-3 mm only for most, 3-5 mm closer to Donegal Bay, and cloudy but mainly dry elsewhere, mild, highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY to MONDAY should continue mild and mostly dry in all areas with highs 12-15 C and lows 3-6 C. There may be a few sunny intervals in otherwise mainly cloudy conditions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for just gradual change through the middle to end of next week with a somewhat higher risk of showers towards Friday 18th and temperatures remaining in the 12-15 C range most days although with a slightly cooler regime near the east coast.

My local weather was once again rather wet and the high was about 10 C with strong winds threatening from an intense storm off the coast tonight (gusts earlier to 120 km/hr at Astoria, Oregon). Meanwhile record high temperatures were reported all over the eastern U.S., for example 25 C at Boston.

M.T. Cranium · 11-03-2016 08:25AM

Friday, 11 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Occasional light rain in parts of Connacht and Ulster (3-5 mm), mostly dry in Munster and Leinster, although rather cloudy, highs 11-13 C. Moderate southerly breezes.

TONIGHT ... A little more rain possible in north and west (1-2 mm) and dry but cloudy elsewhere, lows 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, still the threat of occasional light rain in parts of Ulster and north Connacht but little accumulation. Highs 11-14 C. Moderate southerly breezes.

SUNDAY to WEDNESDAY will provide a largely dry and continuing mild spell although with somewhat less cloud, the temperature range may increase. Some lows of 1-4 C in clear spots (most likely to be in the inland south) and highs that could reach 14 to 16 C in parts of the west, although staying 12 to 14 C in most other locations. Winds throughout will be light to moderate southeast.

OUTLOOK for later in the week including the 17th is for little change in this rather static pattern, there may be a slight drop in daytime temperatures to around 10-12 C and there will eventually be a risk of drizzle or light rain near the south coast (at some point towards the end of the week) as weak disturbances meander westward around the sprawling high to the north of Ulster. Patterns like this can break down with a return to unsettled westerly type regimes but in this case the chances favour a colder northeasterly at some point much later in March as the entire pattern shows signs of moving west during the next ten days.

Very warm weather continues in eastern North America with highs above 20 C in most eastern states and many daily records set. The west is closer to average. We got our predicted windstorm although it was somewhat hit and miss due to sheltering effects of hills to our south (in the San Juan Islands) so while it was quite nasty here there was no damage locally, but considerable wind damage a few miles to our east, large trees down and out-buildings blown across fields. This all subsided around mid-morning and it rained for a few hours then cleared up with a high of 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-03-2016 08:27AM

Saturday, 12 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, still the threat of occasional light rain in parts of Ulster and north Connacht but little accumulation. Highs 11-14 C. Moderate southerly breezes becoming light southeasterly.

TONIGHT ... Cloud may break in some parts of the inland south but then mist or fog will create low cloud so that overall most places will be cloudy most of the time and lows will be around 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY to WEDNESDAY will provide a largely dry and continuing mild spell although with somewhat less cloud, the temperature range may increase. Some lows of 1-4 C in clear spots (most likely to be in the inland south), otherwise 4-7 C under cloud or mist, and highs will reach 14 to 16 C in parts of the west, although staying 12 to 14 C in most other locations. Winds throughout will be light to moderate southeast.

THURSDAY to WEEKEND (19-20 March) may continue rather similar but there are indications of a slight cooling trend mainly due to the slow westward drift of the high which will allow the light to moderate breezes to back further into the northeast. There may also be a few intervals with spotty drizzle or very light showers that form in slight troughs within the broad easterly flow, but trying to time these five or six days away is problematic. The basic outcome will be continued dry weather in many areas with just very slight rainfalls in a few locations, not very prolonged either.

Over in BRITAIN it's essentially a similar story but nights will generally be somewhat colder because of a tendency to more clearing late afternoon or evening before nightfall, allowing a faster drop in temperatures from daytime readings that might also be a degree or two lower than what we expect to see in Ireland, this partly because of a greater sea breeze effect from the North Sea. However, differences are likely to be subtle. Scotland will have a very settled spell of weather and it might be a good time to visit the west coast there if you have the time and inclination.

Eastern NORTH AMERICA continues to bask in temperatures more typical of late May than early March, highs well above 20 C although sea breezes kept Boston cooler today. Further west there's more cloud and the temperatures, while considerably above normal, are not as record breaking (about 14 C in Chicago for example). The west coast is unsettled and not particularly mild with temperatures right on the seasonal average today (Friday) and a bit of light rain here, highs near 10 C. Despite the recent cooler turn our spring is about a week ahead of the average pace and blossoms are near their peak around the region.

M.T. Cranium · 13-03-2016 08:47AM

Sunday, 13 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny or at least brighter intervals developing, somewhat cooler near east coast due to stronger sea breezes there, but otherwise similar temperatures to yesterday, 12-14 C for a high in most areas and 10-12 C near east coast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, lows 3-6 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue dry and with slightly more sunshine during the days although some areas will still have considerable cloud cover -- with light to moderate east winds, the east coast will remain somewhat cooler although the sea breezes may not get very far inland. Highs for most will be in the 12 to 14 C range, we may see the occasional 15 or 16 near the west coast and a few 9s or 10s near east or south coasts. Nights will be somewhat colder if skies do manage to clear more frequently, but this may not always be the case so that lows may be in a rather large range from place to place, slight frosts could occur under clear skies, but 5-7 C would be a likely minimum under cloud.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this dry spell to continue with just a slight risk of isolated low cloud producing drizzle or spotty light rain, and that would be more likely in the southwest than anywhere else, but even there could amount to only trace amounts of rain. So it looks like an extended dry spell which I think will come as good news to almost everybody. Models continue to toy with the idea of a colder spell once this high either drifts far enough west or just collapses to leave a vacuum to be exploited by what is slowly developing far to the north and northeast, a large pool of very cold air that could take a run at Scandinavia in about a week from now, then in a second wave could show up over Britain and Ireland -- some maps out recently would suggest temperatures not far above freezing by day and well below freezing at night if this were to materialize (and after the bland pattern most of this winter once we got past the record warmth of December, a colder turn makes sense as blocking seems to be on the increase).

Over in BRITAIN this cool, dry spell will be even cooler for many, as the North Sea has a tendency to produce stronger sea breezes and a larger feed of low cloud that can keep daytime temperatures well below average values at times. Scotland on the other hand is under the core of high pressure with very light winds and the western coasts will enjoy some fine weather this coming week.

The warm pattern over most of NORTH AMERICA continues but an energetic front moving into the west coast states will be followed by quite chilly air from a Siberian source and this will lead to a lowering of the snow levels to about 300 metres from the current 800 metres above sea level. So in other words, rain showers will be turning to snow showers for some in that transition zone and quite extensively inland. My local weather on Saturday was showery and the high about 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-03-2016 07:42AM

Monday, 14 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... More sunshine is likely today, with cloud most likely to be persistent near the south coast. Light to moderate east winds will develop and bring a bit of a sea breeze chill to coastal Leinster. Highs 12-14 C for most and 10-12 C where those sea breezes develop.

TONIGHT ... Clear at times, fog or mist could develop fairly close to sunrise and isolated frost will probably occur in valleys inland. Lows -2 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... Mixture of cloud and sunshine, moderate east winds, coastal sea breeze cooling and highs in a similar range to today, mostly 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY could be just a little warmer despite more extensive high cloud, and winds will be light although that won't necessarily prevent sea breezes from developing on all coasts. Highs 13-15 C with the warmer readings in western counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a slow deterioration of the fine spell and timing remains uncertain (although all models seem to have roughly the same sequence), chances seem good that the settled weather could last through next weekend before eventually yielding to cold northwest winds and scattered showers (this could be ten to twelve days from now however).

My local weather was once again overcast with occasional rain, a high near 10 C, and strong south winds just missed my location as a Pacific low came in right over us, about fifty kms southeast or east of here winds gusted over 100 km/hr but they went calm for a while at my location. Like many Pacific lows, this one quickly died out when it tried climbing the coastal mountains.

M.T. Cranium · 15-03-2016 07:57AM

Tuesday, 15 March, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudier intervals, moderate east winds developing around mid-day, highs 12-15 C west and central, 9-11 C south and east coasts as well as in much of Ulster (Donegal more like the warmer west).

TONIGHT ... Clear with increasing high cloud, lows 1-4 C, scattered light ground frost.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue similar although possibly somewhat more cloud than the earlier part of the week, with rather light east to northeast winds and some sea-breezes setting in from other directions, feeling quite warm inland with any sunshine and highs 13-15 C for some inland locations, 9-12 C near coasts. Overnight lows mostly in the 1-4 C range with a few slight frosts inland valleys.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this settled spell to break down rather gradually through the weekend and early next week, a few showers may eventually develop in a cloudier northwest flow but the weekend will likely remain dry if rather cloudy with highs 10-12 C, moderate northwest winds, then parts of next week will have rather strong northwest winds and chilly temperatures are possible (more likely in Britain in fact there's even some chance of sea effect sleet or snow showers developing there but probably not for Ireland).

My local weather continues rather drab with mostly cloudy skies and highs close to 10 C with a few showers around.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Comments