Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2014 8:05am

Sunday, 9 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued windy with some strong gusts in exposed locations, generally westerly 50-80 km/hr, periods of rain or showers, some with hail and thunder, highs 7-8 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, not quite as windy, becoming sleety on higher terrain, some ice on untreated roads in central and northern counties. Lows about -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, then an interval of heavier rain with strong southerly winds (70-110 km/hr) affecting the southeast counties, highs 8-10 C and rainfalls about 10-15 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy (SW 70-110 km/hr) with squally showers, frequently with hail and some with thunder. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, lows 2-4 C and highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 8 C. Not quite as windy.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... This period will probably produce another windy event but details are not really resolved yet. Some guidance suggests the low will track into or even just south of the south coast; other models have yet another round of strong southwest winds. This seems the more likely outcome given that nothing much is changing in the larger scale.

Forecasts for Britain

Windy and showery conditions will prevail and the general schedule of events will be just a little behind that for Ireland with the peaks in wind speed coming about 6-9 hours later in most cases. Temperatures will be similar and there will likely be snow or sleet on higher ground at times. It will be cold but not very far below seasonal normals.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will cover many parts of the eastern and central states but amounts will generally be only 3-7 cms. A colder and drying trend will follow early next week. Snow is also moving into the Pacific northwest with rain showers further south, and it remains dry and cold in western Canada. All western regions will see a gradual warming trend this week. My local weather on Saturday was sunny with increasing high cloud, and while cold it wasn't as frigid as the past three days at about +2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2014 8:14am

Monday, 10 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frosty to start in central counties, some black ice may be present on untreated roads. A rather weak front with light rain or higher terrain sleet will drift east through the morning hours, followed by partly cloudy and breezy conditions with isolated showers, winds WNW 40-70 km/hr backing to SW and then increasing towards evening with periods of rain (about 10 mm is expected). Highs 7-9 C may be set quite late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Becoming rather windy in most regions and very windy near the southeast coast where southerly gales may develop (70-110 km/hr), but winds easing gradually after midnight, with rain tapering to showers. Temperatures steady 7-9 C until late then falling off to about 2-4 C with some mixed wintry showers possible by morning.

TUESDAY ... Winds will increase again especially across the north and west, from a WSW direction at 70-110 km/hr. It will be cold enough for hail showers to be quite frequent rather than rain, and sleet or snow may fall on hills, with highs only 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat frosty to start, mixed wintry showers turning mainly to rain in a rapidly rising southerly gale, turning more to easterly north of a Clare to east Ulster line, with the risk of very strong wind gusts developing around Waterford and Wexford (S to SW 70-120 km/hr) but this is not too certain yet, it could be a stronger wind that affects more counties, or something weaker with the gales remaining off the south coast. In any case, about 15 mm of rain seem likely and highs will reach 7-9 C (5-7 C north).

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with passing wintry showers, rather cold. Morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Concerns have now decreased for another windstorm in this period but it will likely be quite breezy with intervals of rain or even wet snow at higher elevations, highs generally 5-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder and less unsettled weather is indicated on the leading European model, but other guidance shows a few more strong frontal systems in the following week, so there is some uncertainty.

I will return to updates for Britain and North America tomorrow, check yesterday's package for a general idea of what to expect. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and still rather cold, and light snow has just begun as the first stage of a warm front that will include sleet and freezing rain on Monday, then hopefully we will be back into seasonable 7-9 C temperatures after that.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2014 8:03pm

UPDATE _ Monday 10 February 2014 _ 7 p.m.
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ALERT for 3-5 cm of snow accumulating on some higher terrain above 150m above sea level on Tuesday, also more widespread hail or sleet showers, all of which will produce locally poor driving conditions but most notably in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of Kerry and west Limerick.

ADVANCE ALERT for potential damaging south-southwest veering to westerly wind gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed parts of the south and east, possibly as far north as a Galway to east Ulster line, with models now showing an intensifying storm tracking northeast across Ireland on Wednesday afternoon. The details on this may continue to change, watch for updates.

M.T. Cranium · 11-02-2014 7:44am

Tuesday, 11 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for snowfalls of 3-5 cm on some higher terrain in west and north, 1-3 cm in relatively low elevations away from coasts, mainly from mid-morning to evening today. ADVANCE ALERT for very strong and possibly damaging southwest winds in the range of 100 to 150 km/hr across exposed locations south of a Mayo to Antrim line on Wednesday (mostly during the afternoon and evening except morning in west Munster). Some heavy rainfalls may create flooding and coastal flooding becomes possible in a few locations.

TODAY ... Windy and cold with passing squally showers of hail and rain near sea level, sleet or snow somewhat higher up and generally inland, 1-3 cm could accumulate in quite a few spots and 3-5 cm in higher terrain. Winds generally WSW 50-90 km/hr with some higher gusts in northwest, highs will range from 2-4 C on higher inland terrain to 6-8 C south and west coast, likely around 5-6 C in Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Windy with sleet or snow changing back to rain at least in the south and west, winds backing to SSE 50-90 km/hr and stronger by early morning in Kerry. Lows -2 to +2 C with rising temperatures towards dawn.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy or stormy with intervals of heavy rain (20-40 mm) and southerly gales 70-110 km/hr increasing mid-day to storm force southwest veering to westerly 100-150 km/hr with some potential for damage to trees and structures. These very strong winds will likely arrive around 09h in west Munster and mid-day in east Munster, south Connacht and south Leinster, to early or mid afternoon in the remainder of Leinster and parts of east Ulster. Highs 7-9 C around the time of winds shifting more westerly then dropping back to 3-7 C allowing showers to become sleety or mixed again.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY ... The very strong winds will slowly subside, although parts of west Ulster may see stronger winds than during the day (generally NW 60-100 km/hr), with sleet or mixed wintry showers and lows around 1-3 C. Thursday will continue windy although less extreme (WNW backing to SW 50-80 km/hr) with some sunny breaks and some wintry showers, snow on hills, highs 5-9 C.

FRIDAY ... A frosty start, some dry conditions briefly then sleet or wet snow turning to rain at most lower elevations, strong east winds becoming northeast overnight 50-90 km/hr, temperatures in the range of 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Raw and cold with rain or wet snow, strong northerly winds of about 70 km/hr, some clearing later in the day, temperatures steady around 4 or 5 C. This storm could shift further north and west bringing somewhat milder temperatures and stronger winds, so the forecast at present is based on what the models show today, I consider a northward shift perhaps a 30% possibility.

SUNDAY into MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, turning a bit milder with highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slow improvement and possibly a few less stormy days beyond this weekend. At some point this siege of bad weather has to end, at the moment the models are a little less disturbed beyond Monday.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar conditions will hit just slightly later in time with the intense wind storm moving into Wales and central England but also affecting the south during the day on Wednesday and overnight into early Thursday with a highly unwelcome 20-40 mm rainfall ... the Saturday event will track through southern England bringing a dangerous addition to the flood situation of possibly 30-50 mm additional rain.

Forecasts for North America

Dry and cold in many parts of the east, with a snowstorm gradually developing tomorrow and moving into the northeastern states by Thursday. A second disturbance will race across the border regions of the western plains and form a secondary system by end of the week for a second round of snow on the east coast. These two systems taken together might drop 30-50 cms of snow in parts of New England and New York state, 20-30 cm further south but mainly on higher hills by the time one reaches the southeastern states.

Meanwhile the west is warming rapidly, rain is moving inland in B.C. and Washington state, and my local weather on Monday saw brief intervals of snow and sleet turning to rain with dense fog and highs near 4 C but still slowly rising at this late hour.

Check the storm threads on the forum for all the latest insight from the Boards weather watchers. I will definitely update this forecast around 7 p.m. from the more reliable information that the models will have for us once the storm develops during the day (it is now a rather weak system southeast of Newfoundland).

M.T. Cranium · 11-02-2014 7:55pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday 11 February 2014 _ 7 p.m.
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The approaching storm has potential to deliver very strong winds to most of southern and central (Galway to Dublin) counties, with peak gusts of 140 km/hr in exposed locations (130 km/hr for Dublin) that will develop in the early morning in west Munster and spread to most of the south during the morning, in southerly gales that will gradually veer to westerly during the afternoon there. In counties between Clare-Galway and Dublin-Meath, including much of the inland south, the southerly winds during the morning to mid-day east will tend to be the weaker of the two components (peaking at perhaps 110 km/hr) and there may be either a slight or significant lull in the storm as the centre passes, followed by a strong blast of westerly winds acting to fill the pressure void in a very strong gradient that is indicated on most of the guidance. At that stage gusts to 140 km/hr could develop in the Galway Bay region and these potentially damaging gusts could be felt all the way across central Ireland to Dublin where I am estimating 130 km/hr at peak around 3-7 p.m. ... stay tuned for further updates, I will either confirm this outlook or amend it around 11 p.m. after which we will be into a nowcasting situation. The storm is currently rapidly deepening from about 980 mb close to 49N 29W, expected to make landfall around Galway by noon Wednesday at around 956 mbs, then over east Ulster by 5 p.m. at a similar pressure.

Readers north of this track should expect some increase in wind speed during the night and morning hours, a tendency to backing wind directions (SE then later NE) and rather light winds for much of the day followed by strong NW winds by evening.

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2014 12:12am

UPDATE _ Tuesday 11 February 2014 _ 11 p.m.
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Staying with the previous advisory on the approaching storm which has now reached 50N 24W. Maximum gust potential for exposed locations south of the track is 140 km/hr with some concern about Kerry possibly seeing 150 km/hr, and will continue at this point with 130 km/hr peak gusts for Dublin at about 3 to 7 p.m.

Very strong wind gusts should arrive in west Munster about 0500h and last until about 2100h there, the strongest gusts around 1 p.m. See the previous message for some other details on timing and track, these all remain valid.

Next update around 0400h which will probably be edited into the eventual morning forecast which I will try to issue a bit early (0630h) since almost all the interest lies in the approaching storm, although could comment that the weekend event edges north on every model run which will change some of the details for that (no large concerns yet).

Stay safe, I would avoid unnecessary travel with these tree-toppling wind gusts in the forecast. The storm thread is humming away with lots of input, much of which I rely on here since this is the "Boards" forecast as well as the MTC forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2014 7:03am

Wednesday, 12 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for severe storm conditions including 20-40 mm rainfalls, very strong wind gusts that could exceed 140 km/hr in parts of south and west mid-day, and reach 130 km/hr in Dublin by late afternoon. Parts of west Munster are under an official "red alert" for gusts to near 160 km/hr, expected to develop rapidly mid-day and afternoon, following some periods of strong winds and also possible brief intervals of less windy weather; do not assume the storm has passed if winds fall off in your location.

TODAY ...

MUNSTER will start out windy with rain becoming heavy at times, possible thunderstorms, rising southerly gales 70-120 km/hr veering more to southwest by mid-day, as rain becomes more showery (partial clearing or even brief sunny breaks) ... 20-40 mm rainfalls could produce spot flooding and mudslides in hilly places, higher snow could melt ... winds will veer to westerly increasing especially in Kerry, Limerick and parts of Cork, also in Clare, to reach sustained 100 km/hr and gusts to 150 km/hr (160 km/hr in very exposed parts of Kerry) that could cause structural damage. Further east gusts are likely to peak at about 140 km/hr, tree damage is likely, structural damage may be less widespread. ... highs around 8 C.

CONNACHT will be rather windy with rain and embedded thunderstorms, snow on some hills, winds backing somewhat to SE 70-110 km/hr then falling off by mid-day as the low centre approaches, backing further to NE 30-50 km/hr or becoming light and variable. 15-30 mm rain likely, 2-5 cm further snow on higher terrain. Winds will rapidly increase to severe gales or storm force 100 to 150 km/hr around Galway Bay early afternoon but less violently further north to 80-120 km/hr. Some damage could follow in the Galway region. Highs near 7 C (5 C north, on hills). Galway Bay high tides could be a problem but we'll assume that warnings will be issued, the event may not have been active long enough to generate the necessary swells.

LEINSTER will have a windy morning with periods of rain, sleet on some higher ground, 20-40 mm rain and melting snow could combine to create flash flooding or ponding in urban areas and on roads. Winds SE 50-90 km/hr may peak around 110 km/hr briefly, then a somewhat less windy or calmer period (calm interlude more likely in north Leinster) will follow mid-day and early afternoon -- this is essentially the eye of the storm, expect a rapid increase in wind speeds later. Highs near 7 C. Severe and possibly violent gusts from a westerly direction will then develop rapidly except where blocked by mountains reaching 80-130 km/hr. Tree and minor structural damage could follow. Showers or brief hail thunderstorms may develop, tornado potential will have to be monitored if so.

ULSTER will have snow or sleet to start the day, changing to rain only at lower elevations at first, then a mixture will develop. Only moderate southeast winds will reach most locations backing to east then northeast, possibly falling off quite light mid-day and afternoon, then picking up to NW 60-90 km/hr by late afternoon or evening. Further showers or sleet likely, 10-20 mm rainfalls and fairly widespread 4-7 cm snowfalls that partially melt by afternoon. Highs 4-7 C.

TONIGHT will remain very windy in all regions for a while, then more moderate wind speeds after midnight, W 50-80 km/hr, passing sleety showers and snow on hills, lows -1 to +3 C.

THURSDAY will continue windy although less extreme (WNW backing to SW 50-80 km/hr) with some sunny breaks and some wintry showers, snow on hills, highs 5-9 C.

FRIDAY ... A frosty start, some dry conditions briefly then sleet or wet snow turning to rain at most lower elevations, strong east winds by afternoon and evening, becoming northeast overnight 50-90 km/hr, temperatures in the range of 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Raw and cold with rain or wet snow, strong northerly winds of about 70 km/hr (east at first in Wicklow, Wexford), some clearing later in the day, temperatures steady around 4 or 5 C. This storm could shift further north and west bringing somewhat milder temperatures and stronger winds, so the forecast at present is based on what the models show today, I consider a further northward shift perhaps a 30% possibility. Rainfalls could be heavy in parts of the east and inland south, 20-40 mm, further flooding is possible. Snow could accumulate on higher terrain above 300m especially north and west, and elsewhere above 500m.

SUNDAY into MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, turning a bit milder with highs 8-10 C. Some solutions show a colder turn around Monday night and Tuesday with some potential for wet snow developing in a northeast flow.

OUTLOOK currently too uncertain to offer much guidance except to say that mild is more likely than cold as we go beyond ten days out.

Forecasts for Britain

The severe windstorm will hit somewhat differently in Britain, the forward section with strong south to southwest winds will last much of the day in the south and all day in the east, so there, rain and southerly gales gusting to 120 km/hr, 20-40 mm rain could produce renewed or worse flooding. The extremely strong westerlies will reach northwest England and north Wales late in the day with gusts to 140 km/hr. Highs in most regions 7-9 C, but near 11 C in southeast England. The Saturday storm will bring milder southerly gales 70-120 km/hr and heavy rainfalls, highs 11-13 C, but parts of the north may be in a colder easterly flow with sleet turning to rain, snow on hills.

Forecasts for North America

Briefly, snow is gradually developing over the inland east and will move further north over the next two days, but heavy rain and sleet will move up the coasts and reach as far north as Boston eventually. The heaviest snowfalls of 40-60 cm will be in western Mass and central CT, and the Hudson valley into northern NJ. NYC could see about 20-30 cm. A secondary storm will move in from the Great Lakes by Friday and spread 3-7 cm snowfalls across the Midwest, Great Lakes and northeast from tomorrow to the weekend. The west is turning milder and rain will be heavy at times on the coast. My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain at times, highs near 8 C.

Watch for later updates and visit the storm thread forum for all the latest discussion and observations.

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2014 1:34pm

UPDATE _ Wednesday 12 February 2014 _ 1230h
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Just to confirm that extreme winds have developed in west Munster and are expected to spread as per the earlier forecast towards Galway, the inland south and rest of Munster, and most of Leinster, over the next three hours. Once these winds arrive, with gusts in the 130-160 km/hr range, they will probably last for 3-5 hours before gradually returning to more moderate although still quite active levels 50-80 km/hr by midnight or so.

Any showers in this wind flow will be extremely squally with hail. However the period of extreme winds is likely to be mostly dry with scudding low cloud and some breaks.

Stay safe and avoid any sort of travel once this hits, if you still have a bit of time (in the Dublin region you still have three or four hours) secure all loose items in your gardens and check your parking arrangements vs trees or vulnerable small structures located upwind (to the west). These severe gales will come in from about due west. If you have to drive, expect violent cross-winds and erratic behaviour of other vehicles especially high-sided ones.

See you on the storm thread probably.

M.T. Cranium · 13-02-2014 7:32am

Thursday, 13 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for some accumulations of 3-5 cm snowfall mostly on higher terrain in north and west today, icy or slippery roads could result. ADVANCE ALERT for 20-30 mm rainfalls and some gusty winds with storm moving through on Friday into early Saturday, also accumulations of snow on higher terrain. At this point most regions seem likely to escape damaging wind gusts above 110 km/hr although west Kerry could see an interval of 120 km/hr gusts on Saturday from a north to northwest direction.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, windy at times (WSW 60-90 km/hr with some higher gusts possible) with passing mixed or wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on higher terrain in north and west (3-5 cm), highs 5-8 C. Feeling very cold in the wind although some relatively pleasant sunny breaks in sheltered spots near the south and east coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clearing with some local frost or black ice developing on roads, lows around -3 to +2 C. Some parts of north Ulster could continue to see wintry showers with snow on hills.

FRIDAY ... Becoming milder in most regions with moderate southeast winds generally 50-80 km/hr and rain developing, potential for some bursts of heavier rain by afternoon and evening, highs 8-10 C but remaining quite cold in parts of Ulster where the rain may begin as sleet or even snow with a slow change-over to rain, some accumulations of 5 cm possible there.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY ... As the low crosses Ireland from about Cork to Dublin, winds will actually fall off to light in many parts, backing to a strong easterly in Ulster and gradually picking up to a strong northerly in west Munster and Connacht (mainly in the 40-70 km/hr range). Temperatures overnight will stay rather mild in the south and east near 7 C but will fall back to about 3-5 C in the north and west. Then on Saturday, expect intervals of sleety rain that will increasingly turn to snow on higher ground, leading to some accumulations of 5-10 cm but mostly above 200m above sea level. Winds will pick up rather quickly in the west becoming NW 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts in west Kerry. Further east the winds will slowly pick up from northeast backing to northwest later, eventually reaching 50-80 km/hr ... it will be cold and raw in this wind and mixed precipitation, with temperatures steady or slowly falling in the 3-6 C range.

SUNDAY ... Possibly frosty to start after any sleet or snow end, then increasing cloud, a bit milder, rain spreading into the west by evening, moderate southwest winds developing. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, moderately windy, lows 3-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder with sleety showers and some snow on hills, lows about 2 C and highs about 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Clearing with sharp frosts followed by milder, eventually showery weather later in the week. There may be a welcome break from the parade of strong frontal systems.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out stormy in many places but the strongest gusts have already happened and by afternoon the weather will generally be more moderate with gusts to 100 km/hr and passing squally showers, some with hail and thunder.

FRIDAY will start out dry and cloudy, then strong south to southwest winds and rain will spread in from the southwestern counties, eventually leading to rainfalls of 30-50 mm and renewed flooding concerns. Temperatures will rise to near 12 C during this storm with gusts to 120 km/hr possible in exposed locations in the south on SATURDAY.

The outlook from then on is similar to Ireland with the changes taking place somewhat later but a similar temperature regime.

Forecasts for North America

Snow is spreading north into the mid-Atlantic states, trending to sleet, freezing rain and rain closer to the Atlantic coast. This mix will spread into PA, NY and New England overnight and Thursday leading to some heavy snowfalls inland, messy mix of precip types near the coast but intervals of heavy rain. Rather strong northeast winds will develop, backing to northerly. Dry and cold further west but with bands of snow approaching the Midwest and western Great Lakes from a decaying blizzard-like system over the northern plains states that has recently dropped 10-20 cm snowfalls in parts of SK and ND. Mild and drizzly near the west coast. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with some light rain at times, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2014 7:42am

Friday, 14 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs tonight at 11:53 p.m.

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls inland south 20-30 mm, heavy snowfalls on higher terrain tonight and Saturday 3-7 cm, and wind gusts to 120 km/hr from a northwesterly direction in West Munster and parts of Connacht on Saturday, following some southeasterly gales Friday in eastern counties with maximum gusts about 100 km/hr. Slight risk of coastal flooding at high tides when winds onshore.

TODAY ... Rain, possibly starting out as sleet in parts of the north, will become heavy although showery, with slight risk of thunderstorms inland south by afternoon or evening, 20-30 mm rainfalls, winds SE 50-90 km/hr veering to southerly but becoming light and variable near low centre this evening in Munster. Highs 7-9 C except 5-7 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of light rain or sleet continuing, turning to snow on some higher hills, winds easterly 50-90 km/hr in Ulster then becoming northerly backing to northwesterly in most places later tonight and increasing to 60-100 km/hr. Temperatures staying mild for first part of the night in Leinster otherwise lows will generally fall to about 2-4 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy, raw and cold with sleety showers or accumulations of snow on hills, some brief sunny breaks developing by late afternoon, winds increasing further to NW 70-110 km/hr with some higher gusts near west coast, highs 4-6 C but feeling closer to -2 C.

SUNDAY ... Some morning clearing and frost or ice, then increasing cloud with periods of rain developing later in the day west, sunshine fading behind high cloud east. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, milder, lows 4-6 C and highs 8-10 C. Moderate south to southwest winds with gusts to 90 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Rain may change to snow in some places during the early morning then clearing, colder. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 5-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat improved with a milder trend.

Forecasts for Britain

Today's storm will tend to focus stronger SSW winds with gusts to 120 km/hr towards south Wales and southern England and there could be some heavy rainfalls 20-40 mm, milder with evening highs about 12 C.

The turn to colder weather on Saturday will come more gradually but it will eventually become quite cold late in the day in strong northwest winds.

From Sunday onward, a similar trend to Ireland can be expected.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow eventually reaching 30 cm or more in places, and coastal sleet, will be ending later today in parts of the northeast, light to moderate snow redeveloping over the inland east central states, and moving towards the northeast states for Saturday, 15-30 cm potential. Today's storm will quickly move into the Canadian Maritimes bringing mostly rain and milder weather with the snow in western and northern New Brunswick and eastern Quebec. ... A milder trend is developing in central regions and it continues quite mild in the far west. My local weather on Thursday was quite spring-like, with hazy sunshine and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2014 7:39am

Saturday, 15 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some rather strong gusts at times near the west coast and even inland, in W-NW winds 70-110 km/hr, and passing showers that will be either sleety (lower elevations) or wintry (higher elevations), but a slow clearing trend for some parts of the south. Cold in the wind, highs 5-7 C. Some accumulations of 3-5 cm snow on hills.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing, any leftover wintry showers ending, frost may develop inland. Lows -2 to +3 C. Icy roads possible inland central, north.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming rather windy by late afternoon especially in west Munster, as southerly winds rise to 50-90 km/hr, some higher gusts near coast. Periods of rain or showers, 5-10 mm, highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, mild, lows 3-5 C, highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... The earlier idea about a brief colder spell is muted now although there could still be some morning frost, then variable cloud and just a little colder, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Windy but not yet indicated to be stormy, keeping an eye on it though, rather mild, some rain at times, highs near 11 C.

Will return to the Britain and N America forecasts tomorrow, the main points being a gradual end to stormy and very wet conditions in Britain today and the onset of a second snowstorm in Boston and nearby parts of New England, although not much further inland this time around. My local weather on Friday was cloudy and mild, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2014 8:36am

Sunday, 16 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloudiness with rain spreading in from the west during the late morning, reaching most of the east by afternoon. Winds will continue to increase while backing to the south at 50-90 km/hr with some higher gusts. Highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mm (by evening in Leinster).

TONIGHT ... Showers turning to drizzle, foggy at times, lows 3-7 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, mlld. Highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning frost and fog patches, then partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, moderate southwest winds developing, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers may be squally at times. Lows 4-6 C and highs 7-9 C in westerly winds 70-110 km/hr.

Will return to a more extensive forecast tomorrow, my local weather on Saturday was cloudy with evening rain, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2014 8:05am

Monday, 17 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain may continue rather heavy in the eastern half of the country, while further west some sunny intervals and more isolated showers will prevail. Mild with highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent with partial clearing, fog patches, and possible frost developing well inland. Lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers more frequent in north, highs about 8 or 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain developing, strong south to southwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued windy, but turning somewhat colder, with showers tending to become wintry or mixed on higher terrain in the north and west by afternoon. Winds veering to WSW 70-110 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... More rain and wind developing, at this point not looking severe but blustery. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Quite unsettled next weekend and through the early part of the following week, strong winds at times.

Forecasts for Britain

Showers will become heavy today in western regions, mild with highs about 10 to 12 C. The pattern through the week will be quite similar to Ireland with strong winds at times in Wales and northern England.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will develop in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region later today, while it will continue rather cold and dry further east into New England. Quite mild now across most of the southern half of the U.S. trending to very warm in the desert southwest region and California. Mild in western Canada with rain changing to snow further inland over the Rockies, but remaining clear and cold although not too extreme in the rest of western Canada and nearby northern plains states. ... My local weather on Sunday was breezy to windy at times with rain at times, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2014 8:42am

Tuesday, 18 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Remain calm, this may be a dry day with light to moderate southwest breezes. Any leftover showers north of Dublin will soon end, but a few more light showers could develop across the north later on. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C. Watch for some isolated black ice this morning in a few valleys or low-lying spots inland south, lasting until perhaps 0930h.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few intervals of patchy light rain may develop, lows 3-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain developing, strong south to southwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr with afternoon or early evening highs 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued windy, but turning somewhat colder after a rather mild first half to the overnight period, eventually showers tending to become wintry or mixed on higher terrain in the north and west by afternoon. Winds veering to WSW 70-110 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... More rain and wind developing, at this point not looking severe but blustery at 70-110 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Milder by late in the day, windy, showers. Lows 3-5 C and highs about 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, mild, showers. Highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Quite unsettled next week, strong winds at times. Temperature trend could eventually be downward although not by a large amount.

Forecasts for Britain

Showers continuing although rather small amounts today and much of tomorrow, heavier rain by Wednesday evening lasting into part of Thursday then a bit colder for most. Highest temperatures each day around 10-12 C.

The further outlook will bring similar trends to Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will accumulate 10-15 cm in parts of the lower Great Lakes today and the inland sections of the northeast states later today with a rain-snow mix further south. A second, weaker disturbance is following and will bring the Midwest about 2-4 cm of snow today, temperatures continue to moderate and much milder weather is pushing east through the plains states, threatening to thaw the deep snow pack in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday with 20-30 mm rain potential at that time. Meanwhile it remains very warm in the desert southwest -- Phoenix has had four record highs in a row and hit 31 C on Monday. ... My local weather has been mild and showery with highs close to 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-02-2014 8:46am

Wednesday, 19 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy, dry for most places this morning, then rain developing, strong south to southwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr with afternoon or early evening highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Strong winds easing for a time, then picking up again from the west, showers or periods of light rain. Mild for the first part of the night (most of the night in eastern regions) but lows falling to 2-4 C before morning.

THURSDAY ... Continued windy, but turning somewhat colder, eventually showers tending to become wintry or mixed on higher terrain in the north and west by afternoon. Winds veering to WSW 70-110 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... More rain and wind developing, blustery south to southwest winds at 70-110 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Milder by late in the day, windy, showers. Lows 3-5 C and highs about 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, mild, showers or periods of rain. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further wind and rain at times Monday-Tuesday, turning somewhat colder after that with showers becoming wintry on hills.

See yesterday's discussion for Britain and North America outlooks, my local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with highs close to 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2014 8:34am

Thursday, 20 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY will be turning colder in stages, but there may be some sunny breaks this morning as showers develop in the west, then more variable cloud and showers that could become wintry on higher terrain especially in western regions. Highs about 8 C south and east, 6 C north and west. Rainfalls about 3 to 5 mm which could mean sleety accumulations of 2-4 cm snow on some higher ground. Winds picking up again after a brief lull in some northern areas to reach WSW 70-110 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers with snow on some hills, cold with lows about -1 to +3 C, moderate westerly winds continuing.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, passing sleety showers but becoming somewhat milder again by afternoon, highs near 8 C and winds SW 50-90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing by afternoon or evening, winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs about 11 or 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of light rain, windy (SW 70-110 km/hr), highs near 11 C. Weekend rainfalls will total perhaps 15 mm on average.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy, showers, near normal temperatures, highs 9 to 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The month will end on a rather stormy note according to current model indications, details cannot really be trusted yet but there are some indications of very strong winds and then a colder turn.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be blustery with frequent showers, clearing at times by afternoon in some western regions, highs near 9 or 10 C.

The pattern will then continue similar to that in the Irish forecast above with colder temperatures for part of Friday then a milder turn on the weekend with rain developing in strong southwest winds.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain is developing in the Midwest and will spread into the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty and strong WSW winds. Highs will reach 8-12 C and rainfalls of 20-40 mm are likely, urban flooding will develop as the extensive snow pack partially melts. The coastal northeast will see mild but generally dry weather today, with the rain arriving tonight and Friday, highs 13-16 C. This very mild spell is feeding on very warm air across the southern states, but in the north it will only last one day then temperatures will return to below freezing as cold air in central Canada moves southeast. The west coast meanwhile continues mild, cloudy and showery. My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain at times, highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2014 8:24am

Friday, 21 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing sleety showers more frequent in the north this morning, also some sunny intervals and becoming somewhat milder again by afternoon, highs near 8 C and winds SW 50-90 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, moderate southwest winds, and lows 3-5 C.

Astronomy note: After midnight you may get a view of the waning half-moon very close to Saturn, with the Moon moving away after an occultation around 2200h UT in some parts of the southern hemisphere near the Indian Ocean -- by the time they rise in Ireland the two will be about a lunar diameter apart. In North America this event will be seen with a wider separation once the Moon and Saturn rise after midnight local times.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing by afternoon or evening, winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr and highs about 11 or 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of light rain, windy (SW 70-110 km/hr), highs near 11 C. Weekend rainfalls will total perhaps 15 mm on average.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy, showers, near normal temperatures, highs 9 to 11 C. There may be an interval of strong winds at least for western counties gusting to 120 km/hr on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK ... The month will end on an unsettled note according to current model indications, details cannot really be trusted yet but there are some indications of strong west to northwest winds and then a colder turn although the coldest air is indicated over Britain and central Europe. Around the weekend of 1-2 March daytime highs may only be in the 4-6 C range.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some long dry intervals and some sunshine as well as a few passing showers, some of which could be wintry on higher ground in the morning hours. Highs 7-9 C.

The pattern will then continue similar to that in the Irish forecast above with a milder turn on the weekend with rain developing in strong southwest winds. Windy at times next week, then much colder towards the first few days of March.

Forecasts for North America

Windy and turning colder across the Great Lakes region with a blizzard raging over northern Ontario. Mild with showers and thunderstorms in the northeast states with highs 13-16 C, a bit colder on the weekend there. Continuing rather warm in the south, severe storms in parts of the southeast then clearing. Cold and sunny in west-central Canada, but dry and warm further west especially in the desert southwest where highs will reach 28 C. ... My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals, high of 8C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2014 8:30am

Saturday, 22 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy rainfall in southern and central counties mainly tonight, 20-30 mm totals are possible, spot flooding ... ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds gusting to 120 km/hr in west and near south coast on Monday night or Tuesday morning.

TODAY will bring increasing cloud followed by light rain that will become heavier overnight in strong south to southwest winds that will reach 70-110 km/hr by late afternoon and evening. Highs 9-11 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with rain, heavy at times, 20-30 mm in south and some central counties, 10-15 mm north and east. Lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain ending, some clearing but further showers developing in gusty southwest winds, highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, rather cold to start, then slightly milder again with heavy showers or periods of rain, strong south to southwest winds developing, peaking overnight with gusts to 120 km/hr possible in west Munster, 100 km/hr most other regions. Morning lows on Monday near -1 C and afternoon highs about 7 or 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Strong winds easing, showers but some clearing, wintry showers could follow in north. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr after morning gales subside. Lows about 3 C and highs about 7 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue unsettled with passing showers or periods of rain at times, highs near 10 C on Wednesday, 7-8 C the following two days.

OUTLOOK ... The first weekend of March could feature a somewhat colder spell that might produce some sharp frosts and wintry showers at least on higher ground. Highs will likely settle into the 4-7 C range. A slow and rather slight warming trend can be expected beyond that.

See yesterday's forecasts for details on Britain and North America, no changes are expected in those outlooks ... my local weather on Friday was partly sunny with increasing high cloud, rather cold with highs near 6 C. Snow is in our forecast (2-4 cm) for today.

M.T. Cranium · 23-02-2014 8:40am

Sunday, 23 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for local flooding and continuing heavy rainfalls moving slowly east, some torrential bursts of rain likely in Leinster this morning, 30 mm totals, also quite gusty winds at times from the south ... ADVANCE ALERT for very strong winds in west Munster and Connacht on Monday afternoon and overnight into early Tuesday, peak gusts 120 km/hr.

TODAY ... Rain will continue to accumulate to about 30 mm totals, with some torrential bursts that could become thundery in parts of Leinster, spot flooding is likely to develop and winds will be very gusty at times from the south, 70-110 km/hr. Eventually as the slow-moving front moves east, some western counties will see partial clearing but further showers could develop there. Highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out but possibly sleety or wintry in parts of the north, slight frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Winds moderating to considerably lower speeds inland and 30-60 km/hr in exposed coastal regions.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning, periods of rain or squally showers developing, risk of a thunderstorm. Moderate southeast to south winds at first will become gale force later from SSW at 70-120 km/hr by evening in west Munster and 60-100 km/hr for most other exposed locations. Highs about 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning strong winds and squally showers, possible thunder and hail, peak gusts near 120 km/hr in west Munster and 110 km/hr in Connacht, 100 km/hr north and east. Temperatures steady 4-6 C then blustery for most of the day with further squally showers, wintry on some northern hills, highs near 7 C. Afternoon winds westerly 50-90 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 3-5 C and highs near 9 C, as winds moderate from a westerly direction.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be unsettled and somewhat colder in a northwest flow and temperatures near 6 or 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is for colder weather with isolated wintry showers, frosts with lows -4 to -2 C, and highs of about 4-6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK slightly milder again, showery at times.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy, mild, becoming windy with rain spreading east, heavy in parts of Wales and southwest England (20-40 mm). Highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, fog, mild with lows 7-9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be fairly similar to Ireland with strong winds and squally showers at times. Highs both days 8-10 C.

The further outlook is unsettled and with the same colder trend in early March.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and mostly dry in eastern regions but some outbreaks of light snow across parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley, inland northeast. This cold air is connected to bitterly cold air stationary over central and northern Canada. That has pushed milder air south along the west coast and replaced rain with wet snow in most of British Columbia and northern WA state. It remains dry and very warm in the desert southwest region with highs there near 28 C.

My local weather on Saturday was sleety with an accumulation of about 1 cm of snow on grassy surfaces, but 10-15 cm fell at just slightly higher elevations nearby. Slush threatens to turn to ice overnight with temperatures steady at the freezing point.

M.T. Cranium · 24-02-2014 8:53am

Monday, 24 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds and heavy rainfalls in the south and west, moderate winds and rainfalls in the north and east, from mid-afternoon today to mid-day Tuesday.

TODAY ... Variable cloud at first, scattered showers, becoming overcast with strong southerly winds 60-100 km/hr developing, periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy (very windy in west Munster) and unsettled with frequent showers, some squally with hail and thunder. Total rainfalls by morning about 20 to 30 mm. South to southwest winds generally 70-110 km/hr but possibly a bit stronger at times in west Munster. Overnight lows 3-6 C.

TUESDAY ... Strong winds continuing with slight easing at times to around 50-90 km/hr as the winds veer to WSW, squally showers becoming more banded which will lead to variations in rainfall between 5 and 15 mm further, but likely some heavy or thundery showers in western counties mainly. Temperatures will be steady near 7 C most of the day. On Tuesday night, there will be another brief interval of stronger winds and more frequent showers or periods of rain with a secondary trough feature. The lows by Wednesday morning will be cold enough (2-4 C) for mixed wintry showers on some northern hills.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 2-4 C and milder highs near 9 C, as winds moderate from a westerly direction and back to southerly.

THURSDAY ... Windy and a bit colder with hail showers and some brief sunny intervals, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Winds WNW 50-90 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be unsettled and somewhat colder again with some wintry showers on hills, lows 1-3 C and highs 6-8 C.

WEEKEND and FURTHER OUTLOOK is for colder weather with isolated wintry showers, frosts with lows -4 to -2 C, and highs of about 4-6 C. It may be particularly cold by Monday morning (3rd of March) and there is a slight risk of a minor snowfall event with a trough moving southeast ahead of a milder flow that will bring temperatures back towards 10 C by Tuesday and Wednesday. There could be further windy days around the end of the first week in March.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mild with southerly winds 50-80 km/hr, and periods of rain spreading slowly eastward, highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT and TOMORROW will be very windy at times with squally showers, overnight lows 6-9 C and highs 9-11 C.

The pattern then becomes fairly similar to Ireland and there could be some wintry showers at relatively low elevations by Friday and the weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry weather will dominate most of the eastern and central U.S. and Canada, except for the southeastern states which will remain a bit warmer than average and cloudy. Weak fronts around Missouri to North Carolina could produce slight amounts of sleet or snow especially on higher hills. The southwest will remain dry and warm, while the Pacific northwest states will remain overcast and damp, with snow turning back to rain in parts of British Columbia. My local weather on Sunday started out with 10-15 cm of very wet snow that did not greet many by surprise as most of us stayed up all night to watch the final game of the Winter Olympic hockey tournament. This heavy wet snow was topped up by perhaps 1-3 cm more although melting was faster than accumulation most of the day, and now we have 5-10 cm left on grassy surfaces (it never stuck on the roads at my elevation). The temperature has been rising very slowly all day from about -1 C to +3 C now.

M.T. Cranium · 25-02-2014 8:39am

Tuesday, 25 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Strong winds gradually easing to moderate SW to W 60-100 km/hr, frequent and blustery showers with some hail, sleet and thunder, heavy snow near summits of higher mountains. Highs 7-9 C. Further rainfalls 10-15 mm could produce renewed flooding.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers becoming more wintry especially on higher terrain in the north, lows 2-4 C. Winds moderate westerly 40-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, periods of rain and somewhat milder again, strong SW to W winds developing, highs 8-10 C, 10-15 mm rainfalls.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and colder with blustery showers, lows about 2-4 C and highs 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, wintry showers may develop at lower elevations especially by evening and overnight. Lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, wintry showers, lows 0-2 C and highs about 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain may turn to sleet or wet snow overnight into early Monday after briefly milder (8-10 C).

OUTLOOK ... Slightly milder next week at least towards the end of the period.

See yesterday's forecasts for Britain and North America, nothing much happening in general in the U.S. and Canada, just continued quite cold in most areas. My local weather on Monday saw more wet snow which fell at about the same pace as the previous snow was melting, so we have retained a 10 cm cover after the equivalent of 5 cm fell during the day. Highs of about 2-3 C, outlook here is for milder days until Friday and a return to sharply colder at the end of the week.

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2014 8:53am

Wednesday, 26 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partial clearing after morning showers, heaviest in Ulster, move east ... some further showers will develop in the afternoon, then turn to a steady rain by evening in the west. Winds moderate westerly backing to strong southerly by late afternoon. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with rain at times, winds veering SSW to W 60-100 km/hr and 10-15 mm rainfalls, lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, with highs 7-9 C ... some scattered showers could be sleety or wintry at times, brisk westerly winds will fade out by mid-afternoon and a light southeast wind will herald the approach of a fast-moving small low across the south, which could bring a burst of sleet or snow on higher ground, cold rain closer to sea level with amounts heavier in Munster (10-15 mm there, 5-10 mm central and 2-5 mm north). Some accumulations of snow possible on higher terrain by evening.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, occasional showers, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C. Moderate west to northwest winds.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, windy at times, cold, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, windy, and rain could mix with snow over parts of the north by evening and into Monday morning. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday could be rather cold after the snow or sleet ends, then turning considerably milder in stages with possible highs of 12-14 C by mid-week in strong south to southwest winds. However, it will remain windy and unsettled. There is some chance of an improvement following that milder rainy spell. Obviously this pattern can't last much longer, as the absence of east winds and northern high pressure is becoming a statistical singularity at this point, very different to last year's singularity anyway.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be partly cloudy with squally showers, strong westerly winds and highs near 10 C.

The pattern following today will be similar to Ireland but the events will be about a half day later on average, with the Thursday evening rain spreading across Britain overnight and lasting into Friday morning there. Occasional snow is quite likely in higher parts of Wales, northern England and Scotland from about Thursday mid-day to Monday afternoon. It is possible that some sleet or snow will fall in lower elevations except near the south coast.

Forecasts for North America

Very cold air over the eastern and central regions is being reinforced by record cold now massing over central Canada, and this will be moving into the Great Lakes and Midwest later today behind a fast-moving but almost dry frontal system. As the Lakes are largely frozen now, snow squalls will be limited to some parts of Ontario and New York state. The colder air is pushing further south and undercutting mild air over the Gulf coast and Florida, leading to widespread cloud, east to northeast winds, and sleety light rain that could turn to snow over higher parts of the Appalachian Mountains. The warmer air that was present will stick around in southern Texas and most of the desert southwest region, while a developing low over Utah brings showers and high elevation snows to the Great Basin region. Sunny and milder weather has developed on the west coast, but the interruption in the cold spell will only last two days, then it will turn much colder again. ... My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with local fog patches over the slowly melting snow. That snow has allowed the air mass to remain chilly at about 3-5 C, but we've lost about half of the pack that developed and now have 5-8 cm in most places.

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2014 8:21am

Thursday, 27 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

An ALERT is issued for higher elevations where snow may be frequent in the next four days. Many lower elevations may only see brief and non-accumulating snow during this period, but anyone with farming or recreational interests above 200 metres should be aware that disruptive snowfalls could develop almost daily. Check the forecasts for some indications of what regions might be seeing snow each day.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy and breezy with brief but blustery showers that might contain some hail and thunder, snow above 300m. Highs 7-9 C. Winds westerly backing through southwest to south and then southeast by evening, as a low approaches west Munster from the Atlantic. Some dry intervals may develop in the north, west-central and eastern counties ahead of this.

TONIGHT ... Rain may turn to snow on higher terrain in the south, and this rain-snow line could drop as low as 100m above sea level towards morning, but certainly for areas of west Limerick and northwest Cork, much of Kerry, there could be 3-5 cm of snow overnight. Further east, snow is likely on some hills, 10-15 mm rainfalls near sea level. Further north, light sleet could fall at times, but some places will remain largely dry. Lows will fall to about 1-2 C.

FRIDAY ... The morning sleet will end and skies will clear for a while, then cloud will increase from the northwest and mixed wintry showers will follow. This may lead to 3-5 cm of snow on hills in Connacht and Ulster. Highs will reach only 5-8 C. Clearing in most regions overnight with a sharp frost, icy roads especially inland central and north.

SATURDAY ... Blustery with mixed wintry showers. lows -4 to -1 C and highs about 5-7 C. Winds increasing to WNW 50-80 km/hr, making it feel even colder in exposed areas. Snow could appear on higher terrain in many parts of the country, accumulations 2-5 cm mostly above 200m.

SUNDAY ... The sleet may turn more to rain and snow levels will briefly rise to allow some melting on higher ground, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C. Windy at times with some strong gusts developing in Connacht and west Ulster.

MONDAY ... Morning snow or sleet could briefly cover most elevations away from the south coast which may remain a bit milder. Then this mixed precipitation will turn more to rain in strong westerly winds 70-110 km/hr. Lows about -1 C and highs about 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy, cold, wintry showers, snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning much milder late in the week, some pleasant dry spells may accompany this, but it may only last a day or so before colder and unsettled weather returns. Highs could reach 14 C around Thursday or Friday.

Forecasts remain similar to yesterday's package for Britain and North America. It is turning exceptionally cold in the east, if you're headed for any part of the northeast U.S. expect -10 C to -20 C at night. My local weather was partly cloudy and rather mild at 7-8 C considering there is still 3-5 cm snow left over from earlier falls, but melting continues and fog is widespread overnight.

This is how it looked about a day after the snow:

M.T. Cranium · 28-02-2014 8:46am

Friday, 28 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

The next four days will continue to provide chances for snow to fall on higher ground and sometimes closer to sea level, but another theme will be widespread black ice on roads in the morning hours as the timing of most of the weather systems will be producing clear skies at times during the later overnight hours. One thing appears certain, the weather will be constantly changing over these four days. After that, it warms up considerably for at least a few days.

TODAY ... Sleety rain clearing the southeast soon, but further showers will develop in western counties, spreading at times further east as winds become northwesterly then back to westerly 40-70 km/hr. Cold in the wind with highs about 7 C. A few hours of sunshine will at least give a slight hint of the approaching spring.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and a sharp frost at first, with icy roads developing in Leinster and Ulster. Cloudy further west with rain developing, possibly starting as snow on higher ground (above 300m). Lows -4 to -2 C in the north and east, but near freezing to +3 C further west and near the south coast.

SATURDAY ... Morning rain or sleet in moderate southerly winds, cold, but some clearing in westerly winds later, mixed wintry showers likely with snow on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 5-8 C mildest in the southeast.

SUNDAY ... Another clearing interval early morning could produce scattered black ice and frost in the north, but it will likely stay too cloudy for that in some south and west coast counties. Lows -2 to +3 C. Then a rather cloudy day with some sunny intervals, winds increasing again (SW 40-70 km/hr) and rain or sleet with snow on some northern hills. Highs 5-8 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, mixed wintry showers. It may become very windy near the southwest coast and later in the day these strong winds may begin to spread further inland after remaining light much of the day. Hail or snow showers likely with accumulations on hills. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs about 5 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, cold, mixed wintry showers continuing, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder in stages with rain at times, moderate westerly winds backing to southerly, highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Very mild with some rain at times in west and north, could stay dry in parts of south and east, highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... The mild air may try to hold on but could be pushed out of parts of the north at times, with rain closer to the frontal boundary, some partly cloudy skies with the milder air over the south. There is even some chance of very mild readings above 15 C, but we can't be entirely sure it will reach those levels.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will see rain or sleet in the south, clearing away later, in strong north backing to northwesterly winds. The Channel and northern France will see very strong winds gusting to 130 km/hr from the storm that brushed past Ireland's south coast overnight (winds were briefly very strong on the south Kerry coast). Further north in Britain, it will likely be a partly cloudy day with isolated sleety or wintry showers, and quite cold. Highs will be generally 3-6 C.

From tonight on, expect similar mixed conditions to Ireland with frequent sleety precipitation, snow accumulations on hills. This will last to about Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, then it will turn considerably milder.

Forecasts for North America

Exceptionally cold air has developed again over the eastern half of North America, with all regions from the Rockies to the east coast (north of a line from Colorado to North Carolina) in near-record cold. Some snow will develop in northern Colorado, Wyoming and the western parts of the Dakotas, eastern Montana. This snow will slide southeast at first, then east along the frontal boundary, bringing heavy falls to the mid-Mississippi valley and Ohio valley this weekend, together with sleet and freezing rain. The southeastern states will stay a bit milder but the really mild to warm air masses will be pushed back to the central Gulf of Mexico and southern Florida to south Texas. The desert southwest will stay warm and dry, while showers and thunderstorms develop over the lower elevations of the Great Basin states and California, with snow on mountains there. The west coast will turn colder in stages as the prairie cold oozes west across mountain ranges to reach the coast, and there could be slight snowfalls with weak disturbances along those fronts. ... My local weather was pleasant on Thursday, with further melting of the snow leaving just scattered heaps of 3-5 cm on grassy surfaces now. Highs were about 8 C with considerable high cloud but some sun at times.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2014 8:35am

Saturday, 1 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon is about to happen, at 08:00h today, but the Moon is moving about five degrees above the Sun so there's no eclipse with this one.

TODAY ... Morning rain (possibly falling as sleet or snow on higher ground in east) will clear and there could be some mid-day sunny breaks before more cloud arrives with light rain at times by late afternoon or evening. Winds will be generally moderate southwesterly. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals could bring about black ice and slippery roads especially in the inland north. The south may remain cloudy with some light rain at times near the coast. Lows -2 to +2 C north, 3-5 C south.

SUNDAY ... Milder with rain at times, winds becoming southerly 40-70 km/hr veering to southwest. Highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers developing across the north, isolated mixed showers further south. Lows near freezing (0 C).

MONDAY ... Breezy and possibly windy by afternoon, mixed wintry showers possible, cold. Winds WNW 50-80 km/hr in south, not as strong further north until late afternoon. Highs 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder, some hazy sunshine could develop across the south, cloudy with late afternoon or evening rain in the north, highs 12-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Very mild, periods of rain likely, 10-15 mm potential but heavier in the north, highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Continuing rather mild, rain ending and some sunshine developing again, highs around 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The high pressure area that will be approaching from the south will possibly build up more over the eastern Atlantic cutting off the supply of milder southerly winds and eventually changing the pattern to a rather cold and dry regime with slight frosts and daytime highs back down into the 7-9 C range. These developments are not carved in stone by any means.

Consult yesterday's forecast for the details but Britain will see very similar weather patterns to Ireland for the next few days, and North America will be very cold in most regions, wet in California and showery in the desert southwest region. This will lead to Sunday snowfalls of 5-10 cm or a bit more in some parts of the east-central U.S. mainly south of the Great Lakes where it will stay cold and dry. My local weather on Friday was spectacular, sunny and about 12 C with the last remnants of snow quickly evaporating as relative humidities were quite low. Clear but turning colder overnight here. Checking for the northern lights after I post this.

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2014 9:01am

Sunday, 2 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A line of squally showers that may become thundery will move across the country from west to east this morning, followed by partial clearing and a few more showers developing over western counties by afternoon. Highs will reach 8-11 C, rainfalls generally about 5-10 mm. Winds moderate southerly this morning 50-70 km/hr will veer westerly and ease gradually.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of light rain turning to sleet on higher terrain and snow on summits. This snow may begin to mix in towards the end of the night in parts of the southeast above 200 metres above sea level. Lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Winds increasing from west to northwest 50-80 km/hr, rather cold with passing wintry or sleety showers, some accumulations of snow on hills, hail could accumulate briefly closer to sea level. Highs 5-8 C, coldest inland north.

TUESDAY ... Early morning snow may leave 3-5 cm accumulations in parts of the north mainly inland above 100 metres above sea level, sleet or cold rain further south, with continuing strong westerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr, morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 7-10 C as milder air spreads into Munster.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder with occasional rain but partly cloudy intervals in south, morning lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Very mild, rain spreading slowly south but hazy sunshine at times in the south. Moderate southwest winds. Lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will probably remain quite mild although considerably colder air will be edging towards Ulster before being forced back north by the weekend. Highs will generally be in the 10-13 C range but could reach 15 C in the inland southeast.

OUTLOOK ... there is considerable uncertainty given widely different model solutions past the weekend ... I would expect some retrogression followed by increasing northwesterly flow leading to a colder spell by about the middle of the following week, but this could be delayed to the following weekend, allowing for a fairly long mild spell.

Forecasts for Britain

The general trends will be similar to Ireland ... today will start out partly cloudy with highs near 10 C, and showers will arrive by afternoon west, evening east. The sleety rain and hill snow will then arrive late tonight and take most of Monday to cross southern England, while the north and Scotland become quite chilly in northerly winds with snow showers. Tuesday will see another chance for snow especially north of a central Wales to east Midlands line. From then on, expect much milder weather to develop.

Forecasts for North America

Extreme cold has settled in over central regions and has spread almost from coast to coast in Canada and the northern U.S., while it remains mild and showery in the southwestern states, and heavy snow develops over parts of the central plains and U.S. Rockies. This snow will move east and hit Washington D.C. tonight and Monday with 30 cms or more, 20-25 cm in PA and NJ, 10 cm in the New York City region. It won't be cold enough for snow south of about Richmond VA and heavy thunderstorms could develop late tonight along the southeast coastal region and into north Florida. ... My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and much colder than previous days at 2 C, with a few snowflakes but heavier snow is likely here during the day.

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2014 8:06am

Monday, 3 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A weak low drifting southeast across Munster this morning will bring some mixed or wintry showers depending on elevation -- mostly snow above 250 metres a.s.l., sleet or mixed 100-250 metres and mostly cold rain near sea level. This will also apply to any other regions that receive bands of showers but amounts will generally be only 3-7 mm with 2-4 cm snowfalls on higher ground. Winds rather light and trending to northerly in the wake of the low, picking up to moderate northwesterly by afternoon (50-70 km/hr). Highs will reach about 7 C except near 4-5 C on higher terrain due to snow cover.

TONIGHT ... Further mixed wintry showers may turn to a heavy wet snow over parts of the inland west and north, especially above 200 metres a.s.l. ... winds will continue rather brisk from west backing to southwest later, and an interval of steady rain (sleet on higher ground) may move into west Munster towards morning. Lows 1-3 C.

TUESDAY ... Mixed wintry showers trending to mainly rain showers as it turns just slightly milder, with mostly cloudy skies but some local sunny intervals. Highs about 8-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy to start, drizzly but brightening by mid-day, milder, morning lows 0-3 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild with periods of rain developing, spreading from north to south so that much of the day could stay dry in south Leinster, but it could rain most of the day in north Connacht and west Ulster. Lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Turning sharply colder in west and north, while mild and rainy conditions persist in the south and east. Highs 6-9 C west and north, but around 11-12 C south of a Dublin to Limerick line. Skies will brighten in the north with the cooler air mass.

SATURDAY ... Becoming rather windy with showers or periods of rain, strong southerly winds at times, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Some indications now that it will be very windy and turning sharply colder in westerly gales, highs 7-9 C. However, the model output has been changing considerably and this is just the latest twist in the road.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Cold at first, turning milder again mid-week.

Consult yesterday's forecast for details on Britain and North America. A snowfall of about 20-30 cms is expected in parts of Maryland, D.C. and Virginia today, trending to 5-10 cms near New York City. ... My local weather on Sunday was a mix of snow, sleet and rain, with temperatures steady around 1 to 2 C. A little higher up there was a 20-30 cm snowfall but it was just a bit too mild at my elevation (which is 120 metres above sea level).

M.T. Cranium · 04-03-2014 8:12am

Tuesday, 4 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy across the south with outbreaks of light rain, 5-10 mm expected, highs 7-9 C. Partly cloudy across the north and central counties with isolated showers, some of these wintry on higher ground this morning. Highs 6-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, showers ending. Pockets of frost will form inland with lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy to start, drizzly at times near west and north coasts, but some hazy sunshine at times in southeast. Highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild with periods of rain developing, spreading from north to south, 10-20 mm in west and north, 3-7 mm in south and east where rain will continue overnight. Lows 4-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Turning sharply colder in west and north, while mild and rainy conditions persist in the south and east for the morning. Morning lows of 3-5 C and highs 6-9 C west and north, but lows 7-9 C and highs around 11-12 C south of a Dublin to Limerick line. Skies will brighten in the northwest with the cooler air mass.

SATURDAY ... Clear intervals early morning with frost in places, lows -1 to +4 C then becoming rather windy from the south, with showers or periods of rain developing towards late afternoon, strong southerly winds by evening with gusts to 80 km/hr, highs near 11 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm with this front.

SUNDAY ... Windy during the early morning with showers, then colder with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 8-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning milder again during the mid-week period with potential for highs in the mid-teens.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out mostly dry with partly cloudy skies, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, highs will range from near 10 C in south to 5 C in lower elevations of north.

The week will bring roughly the same mix of milder followed by colder conditions for northern and western parts of Britain but it may remain quite mild throughout in southeast England. Next week it could be close to 16 C in parts of the south.

Forecasts for North America

Mostly clear and very cold in regions from the prairies and northern plains east to New England. Cloudy and becoming colder in parts of the Tennessee valley and inland southeast, trending to near normal in parts of Florida and the Gulf coast. Milder across the west and inland about as far as central B.C. to southwest Idaho and western to north central Colorado, as mild Pacific air pushes back at the strong arctic high. ... My local weather was foggy with light rain and rising temperatures that have now reached 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-03-2014 8:11am

Wednesday, 5 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and milder with patchy light rain or drizzle in a few coastal areas of the northwest. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Light rain and very mild across the north and west with lows of 7 to 9 C, cloudy and mild elsewhere, lows 5-7 C. Mist or hill fog likely.

THURSDAY ... Mild with periods of rain developing, spreading from north to south, 10-20 mm in west and north, 3-7 mm in south and east where rain will continue overnight with highs 11-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Turning sharply colder in west and north, while mild and rainy conditions persist in the south and east for the morning. Morning lows of 3-5 C and highs 6-9 C west and north, but lows 7-9 C and highs around 11-12 C south of a Dublin to Limerick line. Skies will brighten in the northwest with the cooler air mass, and the rain further south should pull away from east and south coasts by mid-day.

SATURDAY ... Clear intervals early morning with frost in places, lows -1 to +4 C then becoming rather windy from the south, with showers or periods of rain developing towards late afternoon, strong southerly winds by evening with gusts to 80 km/hr in western counties mainly, highs near 11 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm with this front.

SUNDAY ... Windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) during the early morning with showers, then colder with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs about 8-9 C in moderate westerly winds.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy or sunny most days next week and turning milder again during the mid-week period with potential for highs in the mid-teens, after readings near 10 C on Monday and 12 C on Tuesday. This mild spell could last for a while although some guidance shows it being shunted west allowing a colder northwesterly flow. This is probably how the settled spell will end but timing is uncertain, between 14th and 19th based on various guidance.

Check yesterday's forecast for outlooks for Britain and North America. My local weather on Tuesday was a mixture of light rain and melting wet snow with a high near 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-03-2014 8:22am

Thursday, 6 March, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although some brighter intervals this morning in the south. Very mild, with rain spreading gradually south to cover most regions by afternoon. Highs 11- 14 C and rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery across the north, heavier at times in the south, a further 10 mm there. Very mild but turning fresher towards morning in the northwest. Lows 4-7 C there, otherwise 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, partly cloudy with passing showers or intervals of light rain. Highs 8-10 C. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Clear intervals early morning will lead to frost inland, fog patches and lows -2 to +3 C. Increasing cloud and becoming windy by afternoon, S 50-80 km/hr but some gusts to 100 km/hr near west coast, highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls by midnight about 5-10 mm. Very mild evening around 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, turning somewhat colder again, morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine, becoming milder although rather cold nights, highs near 10 C on Monday and 12 C on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK ... The rest of the week could be very mild or even warm in a light to moderate southeast wind. Highs could reach 15-17 C. The main question seems to be how long this warmer spell might last, and whether it will span the following weekend and include St Patrick's Day (a Monday this year) but this appears to be about when a shift to much cooler and fresher conditions may set in with the warm high collapsing to the south. So the chances seem about 50-50 on that, and progressively lower beyond the 17th. Still, it would be very welcome to have about a week of mild or warm, dry weather.

Forecasts for Britain

The general theme is similar, but today's rain will only spread across northern and central regions by late afternoon and it may remain dry in the southeast until tonight. Then the rain could take most of tonight and Friday morning to move through southern England. Once again, the weekend showers may take their time reaching southern England and some areas could remain dry as the front weakens before reaching them. Temperature trends will be similar and it could be as warm as 18-20 C in southern England by late next week.

Forecasts for North America

Cold high pressure will gradually relent over the northeast U.S. but it will stay quite cold for two more days in most of Ontario, Quebec and northern New England. An area of moderate rain forming today over the southeastern states will move up towards Virginia and the mid-Atlantic states tonight reaching Long Island by Friday. This could begin to mix with sleet or heavy wet snow inland but mainly to the west of the larger cities this time. The west is generally quite mild under another large high but rain is spreading into coastal areas north of Portland Oregon and this could be heavy at times in parts of WA and BC. The Canadian prairies are also slowly warming now but will remain several degrees below freezing until the weekend ... My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with occasional light rain and highs near 7 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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