Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2014 8:41am

Sunday, 12 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Foggy with rain or drizzle, some improvement in west by afternoon ... 10-20 mm rainfalls, heaviest inland west and south, late afternoon or evening highs 8-11 C. Winds veering SE to SW at about 50-80 km/hr then falling off to 30-60 km/hr after the wind shift.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy but some clear intervals in north after midnight, becoming frosty there with some ice and slippery roads to follow, showers across south becoming more wintry on higher terrain, then spreading back to north possibly as snow or sleet. Lows about -2 to +3 C although could hold around 4-6 C south coast.

MONDAY ... Breezy or windy (SW 40-70 km/hr) with mixed wintry showers, higher risk of snow in the north and on higher terrain. Hail could be more widespread. Highs 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers at times but becoming more frequently rain in elevations closer to sea level, lows -3 to +2 C and highs about 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat milder again at least in south and west, rain developing, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cold air lurks just to the north and northeast, but most guidance keeps Ireland in a transitional zone with further oscillations between rather mild and quite chilly days, the next milder interlude timed for about Friday or Saturday, although this will be a rather weak push of mild air around 7 or 8 C. Eventually cold air might make a stronger push towards Ireland but some of the longer-range guidance shows quite mild westerly sourced air masses winning the battle in about two weeks, although the latest GFS appears to have swung back to a weak blocking easterly that would be marginally on the wintry side. The average of all guidance over two weeks basically reveals near average January conditions.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY, rain or sleet will slowly spread further north and east from current locations in far western portions of Wales and England. The change to milder temperatures may take most of the evening hours to complete in eastern districts. But then it will stay mild overnight there and only begin to chill somewhat tomorrow.

The trends from Monday on will be more similar to the Irish forecast for most of Britain, although wintry showers may be somewhat more frequent in each opportunity, and milder air will generally fail to reach Scotland which could stay in the colder air masses most of the time and see considerable snow on hills.

Forecasts for North America

Eastern regions not quite as mild as Saturday but still above normal with a few sunny intervals breaking through low cloud, highs generally 8-12 C. Very mild in the Midwest, central plains, highs 13-16 C. Strong chinook winds across the Rockies as far north as southern Alberta, but widespread snow developing north of the track of a low that by Monday will be approaching the western Great Lakes from Alberta. This will lead in a return to much colder weather as seen earlier in the month, although at first not quite that cold near -7 C. The west coast remains very mild and unsettled with further heavy rainfalls likely in strong westerly winds. My local weather on Saturday was very wet to start with flooding around the region (70 mm reported in 24h), then later it broke to partly cloudy with highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2014 8:36am

Monday, 13 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, heaviest in southeast and parts of north Connacht, west Ulster. Rather mild by afternoon, highs reaching 8-10 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm for most locations.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming less frequent but also more wintry over higher terrain. Lows -1 to +3 C, some icy road sections could develop.

TUESDAY ... Becoming rather windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr) and turning milder with rain, somewhat heavier in south and west by late in the day, amounts generally near 10 mm but could reach 20 mm west Munster. Highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain, heavy at times, tapering off to showers, quite mild in most of the country although turning somewhat cooler in the north by afternoon, morning lows 4-7 C and late morning to afternoon highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, somewhat cooler again, wintry showers developing over higher terrain, but mostly rain showers at sea level, morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 7 or 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... The guidance is really quite scattered beyond the end of this week, some models have windy systems coming in from the northwest, others want to bring in a modified cold flow from the east to northeast, although not quite cold enough for snow. Probably the outcome will be more of the same.

Forecasts for Britain and North America will resume tomorrow, check the previous day if you need current information as those discussions went several days. The only highlight is a possible weak snowfall event for the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain and somewhat cooler, highs near 6 C. The week ahead here is looking very mild and we could have spring-like conditions here by about Thursday and Friday.

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2014 8:45am

Tuesday, 14 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy roads especially for rural areas of inland central and northern counties, and all higher terrain, valid until about 10:30 a.m. as frost may be slow to clear away from the west coast.

TODAY ... A frosty and sometimes icy start with some clear skies and patchy freezing fog (mainly north and east), rain that may begin as sleet or snow on higher ground in north spreading gradually east followed by partial clearing and further showers. Temperatures rising steadily from late morning to evening or overnight when highs may be reached (7-10 by then). Rainfalls about 15 mm on average. Moderate south to southwest winds developing, about 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon or evening.

TONIGHT ... Showers and some clear intervals, milder due to stronger winds with lows 3-6 C. Winds will remain SW 40-70 km/hr most of the night. Rain may become rather heavy in the southwest after midnight.

WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, followed by afternoon clearing and mild temperatures, highs 8-11 C. Winds more moderate, WSW 40-60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers developing as temperatures turn a bit colder again, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6-8 C. Some falls of snow on higher ground above 300m.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, rain developing, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... We are still seeing quite a range of guidance and some of it contains minor examples of wintry weather around the weekend, but it is likely to be regional and also based on elevation so that the inland north would be favoured for any snow. The general trend through next week seems to be slowly back to milder and eventually unsettled if not stormy weather. My research suggests a peak in any future storm intensity around the last three or four days of January.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be a rather cold and in places foggy day with some instances of persistent freezing fog, but also some wintry sunshine developing, highs 5-8 C for most. From tonight through about Thursday afternoon it will be rather mild and wet, then from later Thursday to about Sunday it will be generally colder again with more mixed chances for sleet or snow as well as cold rain in places.

Forecasts for North America

The main weather story will be an outbreak of 10-20 cm snowfalls in most of Wisconsin and Michigan, with perhaps 5 cm in Chicago and northern Illinois, but otherwise most of the east and other parts of the Great Lakes will be dry and seasonable (highs near 5 C). Colder air is filtering down behind this disturbance over Lake Michigan and highs will only reach -15 C in parts of the northern Midwest, however, another surge of mild Pacific air is quickly replacing this wedge of cold and will arrive in the Dakotas and all points west later today with a strong chinook in Alberta and Montana, highs near 15 C. It will stay very mild near the west coast. My local weather on Monday featured record warmth, 13 C and it was dry but cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2014 8:15am

Wednesday, 15 January, 2014

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs tonight at 0452h Thursday 16th. There is no eclipse.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of rain, heavy at times, ending from west to east around mid-day, followed by partial clearing and further showers developing, winds moderate SW 40-60 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm and highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some further showers, clear to partly cloudy at other times with outbreaks of frost developing, some icy roads possible, and lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, wintry showers developing, hail frequent at lower elevations, sleet or snow possible higher up, highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, rain at times, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning slightly colder again with mixed wintry showers likely, lows around -2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Cold also on Monday with wintry showers and a sharp frost, then milder with showers mid-week, turning somewhat colder again late in the week. No truly "wintry" patterns but a touch of winter weather nevertheless.

Forecasts for Britain

In general, expect the same conditions as above with a slightly later timing although much of this current weather pattern will become steady-state by the weekend and conditions will vary more by elevation than region.

Forecasts for North America

Very mild across the west, some highs above 10 C even in western Canada and 15 C in the northwest U.S., to 23-27 C in parts of the desert southwest. This very mild air cuts off sharply just east of the Rockies but it is only seasonably cold east of a frontal system with outbreaks of light snow. Yesterday's snowfall event is drifting slowly east through Michigan and will soon begin to peter out in Wisconsin, but other regions of the eastern U.S. and Canada are mainly dry with near normal temperatures. Much colder weather is just over the horizon for them, however. My local weather remains very mild and mostly cloudy with an elevated fog (near the top of high rise buildings) and highs of about 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2014 8:25am

Thursday, 16 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, widespread hail or rain showers developing, snow possible on higher ground, thunder with a few of these showers too ... average rainfalls about 5-7 mm ... 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers possibly becoming more wintry but also some clear intervals developing, isolated black ice on roads and frost, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, rain at times, and highs near 9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning slightly colder again with mixed wintry showers likely, lows around -2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Cold also on Monday with wintry showers and a sharp frost, then milder with showers mid-week, turning somewhat colder again late in the week. No truly "wintry" patterns but a touch of winter weather nevertheless, in fact the latest guidance looks a bit colder towards the middle of next week but snow would still be rather confined to high ground and there would only be moderately severe frosts (around -4 C possibly).

Forecasts for Britain

In general, expect the same conditions as above with a slightly later timing although much of this current weather pattern will become steady-state by the weekend and conditions will vary more by elevation than region.

Forecasts for North America

Snow developing over much of the Midwest and western Great Lakes regions, turning colder in the northern plains and prairies (near -15 C) with strong northerly winds for a time, but this system is weakening after causing widespread wind damage in NW'ly gales on Wednesday in the prairies of Canada. Mild and dry further west. Meanwhile, the east coast will see a gradual cooling trend today and tomorrow with outbreaks of wet snow or sleet in a few places. The western warmth still extends across the south central states also and into Florida. My local weather was partly cloudy and very mild on Wednesday with a high of 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-01-2014 8:43am

Friday, 17 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

This rather steady-state weather pattern of near normal temperatures and scattered showers seems destined to break down in about five days with strong winds returning later next week, and some prospects for colder weather to follow that windy period, near the end of the month.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, widespread showers, mainly of rain but some with hail and thunder, an average of 5 mm rain, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, frost or fog developing, fewer showers and some of those becoming wintry, lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly sunny with cloudy intervals at first, then widespread showers returning, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with showers, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers both days, some frost overnight, lows around -1 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Moderate winds and showers or periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming very windy around the weekend of 25-26 January, temperatures near 7 C, moderate rainfalls, then turning colder in stages.

Forecasts for Britain

The overall pattern will be similar, with widespread showers most days and near normal temperatures for about a week, then strong winds followed by a colder interval near the end of January.

Forecasts for North America

The western regions are mild and some dense fog has formed overnight, will persist much of the day in valley locations. Where it clears, temperatures could easily soar above 10 C. This milder regime has pushed east of the Rockies but snow will follow tonight in parts of the prairies and tomorrow into the northern plains and Midwest. Another rather weak snowfall event is dying out over the Great Lakes region with some further amounts of 5-8 cms. The east coast states are close to seasonal normals and mostly cloudy. My local weather featured nearby dense fog (which never made it up a nearby hill from the Fraser River, but I had to drive through it) and bright sunshine prevailed at my location most of the day with a high of 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-01-2014 8:28am

Saturday, 18 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... For the west and some central counties, partly sunny with cloudy intervals at first, then widespread showers returning, highs near 8 C. For eastern counties including most of east Ulster, periods of rain with some sleet or snow on higher terrain, then mid-day sunny intervals followed by later afternoon showers, highs near 8 C although only 3-5 C in higher locations. Rainfalls 5-15 mm with the higher amounts close to the east coast.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated frost and fog, showers becoming less frequent and more wintry where they do occur, lows -1 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with showers, and highs near 9 C. Moderate westerly breezes and rainfalls of 3-5 mm on average although some places could remain dry.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers both days, some frost overnight, lows around -1 to +2 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Moderate winds becoming rather strong by Friday, with showers or periods of rain, highs near 10 C each day although possibly as high as 12 C around Friday in the south.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming colder again on Saturday with showers, then increasingly windy around Sunday into Monday 26-27 January, temperatures near 7 C, moderate rainfalls, then turning colder in stages. At this point, the colder spell does not look especially severe but snow could be expected in higher parts of Ulster and north Connacht.

Forecasts for Britain

The overall pattern will be similar, with widespread showers most days and near normal temperatures for about a week, then strong winds followed by a colder interval near the end of January.

Forecasts for North America

A rather mild inversion pattern will continue all weekend in western regions with strongest warmings for the outer coasts, higher elevations above the inversion, and in the Chinook zones east of the Rockies. Those locations could be well above 10 C, others may be held closer to 5-8 C by low cloud or fog and some places could see dense freezing fog early mornings. Cold with outbreaks of light snow in the Midwest, spreading further east by Sunday. My local weather on Friday was foggy much of the time although some clearing took place at mid-afternoon when it was about 7 C. Dense fog has resulted in 50-100 metre visibility this evening.

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2014 8:47am

Sunday, 19 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of rain that could turn to sleet on higher ground, heaviest in parts of west Munster and north Leinster, east Ulster. Amounts will vary from 10-15 mm in those regions to 2-5 mm elsewhere. Highs will be generally close to 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some local frost and fog developing, showers more wintry, lows -2 to +2 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, wintry showers turning back to mostly rain showers later, variable amounts 3-7 mm and highs 7-9 C. Moderate southwest winds in Munster and south Connacht, 40-70 km/hr by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Rain and moderate south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, breezy and a bit colder again, showers more isolated, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers, becoming windy with rain late afternoon or evening west. Lows 0-2 C and highs about 9 or 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with rain, mild. Highs near 12 C. Winds SW 60-100 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday cooler with showers and blustery winds from the west, Sunday milder again with rain and possible strong winds. Beyond that, the pattern remains variable but it could turn colder for a day or two before yet another storm arrives around the end of January.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, highs near 9 C.

TONIGHT will see more frequent showers, lows 4-6 C.

OUTLOOK is then fairly similar to the forecast for Ireland with systems passing every two or three days, arriving perhaps six to nine hours later on average.

Forecasts for North America

Generally cold in eastern regions but severe cold will follow tomorrow and last most of this week. Outbreaks of light snow will continue, with some heavier bursts near southern shores of the Great Lakes as winds turn more to the north. In the Great Lakes and inland northeast, highs of -15 C or lower can be expected by tomorrow, after today's -5 C. Some light rain in the southeast today then turning colder with sleet or light snow followed by clearing (only rain or drizzle in Florida however). The western regions will continue under a strong inversion with mildest readings on outer coasts, at fairly high elevations around mountain ranges and in the chinook zone where it could reach 15-20 C today. My local weather on Saturday remained foggy almost all day and the high was about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2014 8:15am

UPDATE _ Monday, 20 January, 2014
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TODAY will be sunny at first in most eastern counties and partly cloudy further west, with showers drifting inland from the Atlantic. Winds will be moderate westerly later, backing to southerly. Highs near 8 C.

TONIGHT will become wet and breezy, although it could start out clear and cold in east Ulster and north Leinster, so that rain could fall as sleet or even freezing rain for a brief interval there when it arrives well after midnight. Lows in these areas will be about -2 C but otherwise 3-7 C further west.

For the rest of the forecast, I am going to hold with the previous package, although some models have begun to chop and change the evolution of the Friday to Monday period, while others are holding fairly consistent. There could therefore be some changes to the outlook if the 12z model runs happen to hit on a new consensus. If so, I may update this.

The North American forecast from yesterday went several days out and remains valid, snow is currently expected in the east coast major cities on Tuesday (10-20 cm possibly). My local weather on Sunday was hazy and mild with a high of about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2014 8:45am

Tuesday, 21 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, rain tapering off to showers, 10-15 mm likely, with moderate S to SW winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing with showers becoming intermittent and less widespread, some wintry showers may develop on higher terrain, lows about zero to 3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers, some with hail, and highs about 8 C with moderate westerly winds.

THURSDAY ... Rather cold with wintry showers developing, some falls of 3-5 cm snow on higher ground, hail more likely at lower elevations. Lows -2 to +3 and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, turning milder, intervals of rain (15 mm) and highs near 10 or 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, showers, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy, turning slightly colder, frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds gusting to 100 km/hr, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages Monday to Wednesday, rain showers may become increasingly wintry or sleety on higher ground at first and even at lower elevations for a time before gradual clearing begins. Temperatures will slide down to about 4-6 C and possibly lower daytime, near -1 C at night, but this somewhat wintry episode will probably peter out and we'll see a return to milder weather early in February.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out quite misty or foggy with some patches of freezing fog in the east Midlands and inland rural southeast. Light rain will develop later, heaviest in Wales and southwest England. Highs 5-8 C east, 8-11 C west.

The outlook is similar to Ireland beyond tonight and in general it will be quite unsettled and temperatures will fluctuate around normal values.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will develop this morning across the coastal northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, becoming heavier by afternoon and evening, 20-40 cm could fall from about DC to Boston with temperatures falling to near -5 C. Inland northeast will see lighter snow, and some parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest will have local snow squalls but mostly sunny and very cold conditions with highs -18 C or lower. The plains states and prairies will also be mostly clear and very cold with highs ranging from -15 C in Missouri to -30 C in Manitoba. The western mild and foggy spell will continue for several more days and it will be sunny and very warm (near 27 C) in the southwestern states. My local weather on Monday started out with dense fog and gradually became clear and sunny with a high of about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2014 8:50am

Wednesday, 22 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, some with hail, with a somewhat heavier band of rain arriving by afternoon in parts of the west, rainfalls 3-7 mm and highs about 8 C with moderate westerly winds.

TONIGHT ... Further showers may become wintry, some clear intervals developing, frost and local freezing fog patches, icy roads could become a problem inland north and central counties. Lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Rather cold with wintry showers developing, some falls of 3-5 cm snow on higher ground, hail more likely at lower elevations. Morning lows of -2 to +3 and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, turning milder, intervals of rain (15 mm) and highs near 10 or 11 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, showers, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy (SSW 60-100 km/hr), turning slightly colder late in the day after highs near 11 C, then frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds gusting to 100 km/hr overnight into Monday morning, temperatures near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages Monday to Wednesday, rain showers may become increasingly wintry or sleety on higher ground at first and even at lower elevations for a time before gradual clearing begins. Temperatures will slide down to about 4-6 C and possibly lower daytime, near -1 C at night, but this somewhat wintry episode will probably peter out and we'll see a return to milder weather early in February.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, generally unsettled with peaks of temperature timed to arrive around Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday morning.

Forecasts for North America

The northeast U.S. will be digging out from a heavy snowfall in clearing and very cold weather, highs only -10 C, wind chills near -20 or lower. The storm will hit Nova Scotia with 30-40 cm of snow but Newfoundland will be on the milder side with strong southerly winds and rain. Meanwhile, bitterly cold but mostly sunny conditions will continue in the Great Lakes, except for a few local squalls, and the Midwest will see increasing cloud and light snow becoming heavier near the south end of Lake Michigan (including parts of Chicago) as winds become strong northerly again behind a weak "clipper" type low. The severe cold continues to dominate central Canada from its source in the central arctic islands, and the far west remains very mild with local fog less of an issue in somewhat stronger breezes. My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a high near 6 C. We have now had quite an unusual dry spell of about twelve days (January here is normally at least as wet as in Ireland and probably a bit wetter -- also we often get one week of colder weather with snow and that has not happened yet either).

M.T. Cranium · 23-01-2014 8:19am

Thursday, 23 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather cold with wintry showers developing, some falls of 3-5 cm snow on higher ground (but mostly above 400m, hail more likely at lower elevations). Highs 6-9 C. Rain developing by evening in western counties.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain spreading across the country gradually from the west, rainfalls of 5-10 mm, temperatures may begin to rise after midnight when they could be around 2-4 C in the east (5-8 C west).

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, turning milder, intervals of rain (10-15 mm further, some local flooding) and highs near 10 or 11 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, showers, highs near 10 C. Somewhat colder towards late afternoon, evening.

SUNDAY ... Windy (SSW 60-100 km/hr), milder for part of the day then turning slightly colder late in the day after highs near 11 C, then frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds gusting to 110 km/hr overnight into Monday morning, temperatures near 6 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers, colder, highs near 7 C. Winds westerly veering to northwesterly 80-110 km/hr. Rather high water levels at high tides.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages Tuesday and Wednesday, rain showers may become increasingly wintry or sleety on higher ground at first and even at lower elevations for a time by Wednesday (3-5 cm potential in some places) before gradual clearing begins. Temperatures will slide down to about 4-6 C and possibly lower daytime, near -1 C at night, but this somewhat wintry episode will probably peter out and we'll see a return to windy and milder weather by Thursday or Friday as the month ends then milder still early in February.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, generally unsettled with peaks of temperature timed to arrive around Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday morning. Decidedly wintry in Scotland from about Monday to Wednesday next week with locally heavy snow, more of a sleety mixture in north-central England and higher parts of Wales, probably staying mild enough for rain in southern England though.

Forecasts for North America

Severe cold continues in most of the eastern and central U.S., with a very weak disturbance bringing local squalls in east winds around the lower Great Lakes -- stronger winds will arrive tomorrow and Saturday with heavier squalls, then record cold will follow from the high arctic. Temperatures will run about 10-15 degrees below normal through the period. The west remains quite mild and fog is less of a problem now that winds have picked up slightly. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and rather mild with a high of about 8 C. Clear with a slight frost at this late hour (11:30 p.m. here).

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2014 8:38am

Friday, 24 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Early risers on Saturday with clear skies will find the Moon approaching bright Saturn in the southeastern sky, and both Spica and Mars can be seen to their right, higher up in the south.

ALERT for some localized flooding after heavy rainfalls end later today, with a resumption on Sunday in another round of heavy showers. Strong winds will pick up at times on Sunday and Monday to around 110 km/hr in gusts, high tides will be rather close to overtopping some seawalls although not as severe as earlier in the month.

TODAY ... Cloudy, very mild, intervals of rain (10-15 mm further, some local flooding especially in lower-lying urban areas) and highs near 10 to 12 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr with some higher gusts near exposed coasts.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent with some clearing by early morning, lows about 3-5 C. Isolated ground frost may develop.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, showers, highs near 10 C. Somewhat colder towards late afternoon, evening.

SUNDAY ... Windy (SSW 60-100 km/hr veering to westerly 70-110 km/hr), milder for part of the day then turning slightly colder late in the day after highs near 11 C, frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds gusting to 110 km/hr overnight into Monday morning, temperatures near 6 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers, colder, highs near 7 C. Winds moderate westerly at first, then veering to northwesterly 80-110 km/hr by late in the day. Rather high water levels at high tides.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages Tuesday and Wednesday, less windy as the low drifts southeast across Ireland, eventually winds becoming northeast in its wake, periods of heavy rain showers may become increasingly wintry or sleety on higher ground at first and even at lower elevations for a time by Wednesday (3-15 cm potential in some higher locations, farmers and others take note that heavy snowfalls may disrupt travel or operations above 400m in various regions) before gradual clearing begins. Temperatures will slide down to about 4-6 C and possibly lower daytime, near -1 C at night, but this somewhat wintry episode will probably peter out and we'll see a return to windy and milder weather by Thursday or Friday as the month ends then milder still early in February.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, generally unsettled with peaks of temperature timed to arrive around Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday morning. Decidedly wintry in Scotland from about Monday to Wednesday next week with locally heavy snow, more of a sleety mixture in north-central England and higher parts of Wales, probably staying mild enough for rain in southern England although some guidance this morning suggests a sleety mix inland above 150m. Temperatures will only be in the range of 3-5 C much of next week in Britain but 7-10 C in southwest England and 5-7 C in Wales.

Forecasts for North America

Very cold in central and eastern states and much of Canada east of the Rockies, with snow developing across the prairies heading rapidly southeast towards the Great Lakes and Midwest. Dry with considerable sunshine further east, near record cold temperatures. Note that a second snowfall event is timed for Sunday-Monday across these regions, then exceptionally cold air will flood south with daytime readings near -20 C and overnight lows at record values near -30 C even into the Ohio valley. ... Unseasonably cold into the southeast and Gulf coast with a sleety mix around Houston and New Orleans, highs there only 3-5 C. Severe frosts are approaching Florida and may cause a rise in produce and citrus prices at least in North America. Much warmer further west, highs 20-25 C in most of AZ, CA, sNV and about 15 C in OR-n NV-UT-ID, 10-15 C in WA and s BC. Mostly sunny except for limited amounts of valley fog. My local weather on Thursday was crystal clear and mild with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-01-2014 8:33am

Saturday, 25 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy with a line of heavy showers now in Ulster moving southeast through other regions this morning, one or two thunderstorms possible, then partial clearing, winds increasing to SW 50-80 km/hr. Highs 9-10 C. Rainfalls about 3-7 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, some showers developing and periods of rain after midnight in west, winds strong from south to southwest increasing to about 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed locations, temperatures steady 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy (SSW 60-100 km/hr veering to westerly 70-110 km/hr), milder for part of the day then turning slightly colder late in the day after highs near 11 C, frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds gusting to 110 km/hr overnight into Monday morning, although potential for 130 km/hr gusts in coastal northwest late Sunday evening and overnight with temperatures steady near 6 C.

... The strong low will approach Donegal, begin to loop counter-clockwise for about half a day and while gradually weakening will then drift southeast across Ireland on Tuesday. ...

MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers, colder, highs near 7 C. Winds moderate westerly at first, then veering to northwesterly 80-110 km/hr by late in the day. Rather high water levels at high tides.

OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages Tuesday and Wednesday, less windy as the low drifts southeast across Ireland, eventually winds becoming northeast in its wake, periods of heavy rain showers may become increasingly wintry or sleety on higher ground at first and even at lower elevations for a time by Wednesday (3-15 cm potential in some higher locations, farmers and others take note that heavy snowfalls may disrupt travel or operations above 400m in various regions) before gradual clearing begins. Temperatures will slide down to about 4-6 C and possibly lower daytime, near -1 C at night, but this somewhat wintry episode will probably peter out and we'll see a return to windy and milder weather by Thursday or Friday as the month ends then milder still early in February. This outlook remains valid from the leading model guidance but there are other scenarios on offer that include a shot of colder weather next weekend (1-2 Feb) with snow potential. For now I will lean towards the milder solutions.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, generally unsettled with peaks of temperature timed to arrive around Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday morning. Decidedly wintry in Scotland from about Monday to Wednesday next week with locally heavy snow, more of a sleety mixture in north-central England and higher parts of Wales, probably staying mild enough for rain in southern England although some guidance this morning suggests a sleety mix inland above 150m. Temperatures will only be in the range of 3-5 C much of next week in Britain but 7-10 C in southwest England and 5-7 C in Wales. In general, the very strong winds expected Sunday night in Ireland may only brush parts of western Scotland and will stay more moderate in other parts of Britain although above 70-100 km/hr in exposed locations. Greatest snow potential will be on east-facing hills in eastern Scotland and northeast England as well as highest portions of the Lake District and Wales.

Forecasts for North America

Blizzard-like snow squalls will continue in the Great Lakes region in addition to a more widespread 5-10 cm snowfall event. Temperatures will moderate briefly on the east coast to near +2 C ahead of this system, then fall back to abour -5 C before a second storm arrives Sunday on a similar track. This one will produce more heavy squalls and introduce record-breaking cold air from the high arctic regions, now rushing south behind the weak early stages of this Sunday low in the form of a dry frontal wave in Montana and western South Dakota. West of that, it remains very mild and the Yukon is currently warmer than most of eastern Canada or even the mid-Atlantic states (at about 8 C). The west coast is very pleasant under sunshine and mild daytime highs near 10 or 12 C. That describes my local weather on Friday, after a frosty start.

Clear now, which reminds me, if you are reading this before 0800h and have clear skies, look for the moon approaching Saturn in the sunrise glow off to the southeast.

M.T. Cranium · 26-01-2014 9:19am

Sunday, 26 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong wind gusts with some potential for damage and coastal flooding around high tides, today, tonight and Monday, with coastal west and northwest most at risk.

TODAY ... Windy (SSW 60-100 km/hr veering to westerly 70-120 km/hr), milder for part of the day then turning slightly colder late in the day after highs near 11 C, frequent blustery showers in strong westerly winds. rainfalls of about 10 mm on average. Afternoon temperatures closer to 7 C with some mixing on higher terrain and snow on summits.

TONIGHT ... Very windy especially in west Ulster and north Connacht, where gusts to 130 km/hr possible, otherwise generally SW 80-120 km/hr. Periods of rain with a sleety mix on high ground. Lows 3-5 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with squally showers, colder, highs near 7 C. Winds could become more moderate westerly for part of the morning, then veering to westerly 80-120 km/hr by late in the day. Rather high water levels at high tides. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Frequent showers, sleet or snow developing on higher terrain but accumulations only near summit levels. Morning lows 2-4 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Winds gradually reducing to WSW 30-50 km/hr, falling off to light and variable by evening as low pressure weakens and moves across the Irish Sea towards southeast Ireland.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sleet or wet snow possible at elevations above 200m above sea level, cold rain or hail showers closer to sea level, some sunny breaks developing, winds generally north backing to east 30-50 km/hr. Some accumulations of 3-15 cm on high terrain above 400m, rainfalls at lower elevations 3-7 mm. Morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Frosty to start, some clear intervals with increasing cloudiness by afternoon, moderate east winds becoming southeast 30-50 km/hr, morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning rain and moderate southerly winds veering to southwest 40-70 km/hr, showers, milder. Highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, probably too mild for snow although some guidance does indicate near freezing temperatures. On balance, will say that February more likely to start out in the 7-10 C range but 2-5 C modified arctic air mass could be as close as Scotland at times.

Forecasts for Britain

Similar trends to Ireland, generally unsettled with peaks of temperature timed to arrive around Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday morning. Decidedly wintry in Scotland from about Monday to Wednesday next week with locally heavy snow, more of a sleety mixture in north-central England and higher parts of Wales, probably staying mild enough for rain in southern England although some guidance this morning suggests a sleety mix inland above 150m. Temperatures will only be in the range of 3-5 C much of next week in Britain but 7-10 C in southwest England and 5-7 C in Wales. In general, the very strong winds expected Sunday night in Ireland may only brush parts of western Scotland and will stay more moderate in other parts of Britain although still about 70-100 km/hr in exposed locations. Greatest snow potential will be on east-facing hills in eastern Scotland and northeast England as well as highest portions of the Lake District and Wales. Some models show a deepening cold easterly flow pattern in early February but the more reliable guidance returns to milder conditions except in northeast Scotland.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will develop across the Midwest and spread to the central and eastern Great Lakes by tonight and Monday. Generally 5-10 cm with 20-30 cm snow squall potential in a few areas. A few snow showers could brush past the east coast cities tonight but mostly cloudy and dry there, a bit milder than recent days. Severe cold will then follow as it rushes south across the central prairies into the northern plains states today on 70-100 km/hr north winds with wind chills near -45 C, air temperatures falling to -28 C. For the next three days severe cold will lock into most of the eastern U.S. and Canada. It will remain very mild to warm, and sunny across most of the west with increasing cloud later today in B.C. followed by coastal showers. My local weather on Saturday was clear and mild. Here's some photographic evidence from Brackendale north of Vancouver where bald eagles gather at this time of year to feast on the salmon run:

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2014 8:43am

Monday, 27 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Intense low pressure located near the Hebrides on Sunday has begun to weaken and will now drift south and slightly east, basically down the length of the Irish Sea and this will cause winds to weaken gradually, go almost calm at some point or northerly in the western counties, and eventually turn to the east. This interruption in the Atlantic wave train will last a few days and then the familiar (and widely disliked) pattern will return by Friday.

TODAY ... Windy with squally showers or periods of sleety rain, rather cold, highs near 7 C. Winds could become more moderate westerly for part of the morning, then veering to westerly 70-100 km/hr by afternoon. Rather high water levels at high tides. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

TONIGHT ... Winds will continue to weaken reaching average speeds of about 30-50 km/hr from the west, turning more northerly in western counties. Some calm intervals could develop in east Ulster and north Leinster closer to the low centre. Overnight lows will be 2-4 C, with showers becoming wintry on some higher terrain.

TUESDAY ... Frequent showers, sleet or snow developing on higher terrain but accumulations only near summit levels. Morning lows 2-4 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Winds WSW 30-50 km/hr veering to NW then N 30-50 km/hr but falling off to light and variable in some parts of the east and later by evening in the southeast. Average rainfalls 3-5 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sleet or wet snow possible at elevations above 200m above sea level, cold rain or hail showers closer to sea level, some sunny breaks developing, winds generally north backing to east 30-50 km/hr. Some accumulations of 3-15 cm on high terrain above 400m, rainfalls at lower elevations 3-7 mm. Morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Frosty to start, some clear intervals with increasing cloudiness by afternoon, moderate east winds becoming southeast 30-50 km/hr, morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning rain and moderate southerly winds veering to southwest 40-70 km/hr, showers, milder. Highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, milder in the 7-10 C range but 2-5 C modified arctic air mass could be as close as Scotland at times yet there is also some chance of a milder southwest flow redeveloping with highs 10-13 C.

Forecasts for Britain

With the track of the low mainly west of Britain, the winds will back slowly from WSW to SSE over the next two days, and frequent showers will continue. Somewhat colder air will edge west from central Europe and could mix into the circulation near the east coast and over most of eastern Scotland and northeast England, where sleet or snow could replace the rain showers. Otherwise highs will be close to average values of 6-9 C. The longer term outlook is similar to Ireland's forecast above.

Forecasts for North America

Severe cold is rapidly spreading southeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio valley, and will reach the east coast by afternoon, following some heavy but brief snow squalls. More persistent snow squalls are likely in Michigan, Ontario and New York state. Highs in some of these regions could be at record low levels of -15 to -25 C. Tonight and for several nights this week, lows will reach -30 C. This severe cold extends north into central Canada and is edging west towards the Rockies where it will replace the mild chinook pattern today. The west coast and most of the interior U.S. western regions south of a Denver-Boise-Spokane zone will remain mild with some local fog and widespread cloud spreading inland from the Pacific, with only light or spotty rainfalls. My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a colder high of about 6 C, but dense fog persisted all day close by including at YVR airport.

M.T. Cranium · 28-01-2014 8:25am

Tuesday, 28 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT -- Here we go again, an intense windstorm with potential for very high tidal levels due to the perigeean new moon is about 70% likely based on most model consensus, and will arrive mid-day Friday, lasting into Saturday morning.

TODAY ... Frequent showers, with some sleet or snow developing on higher terrain but heavy accumulations only near summit levels. The showers will organize into bands and will move in from the Irish Sea in parts of Leinster so that higher elevations of the Dublin and Wicklow Mountains could see heavy sleet or wet snow. Afternoon highs 6-8 C near sea level to 2-4 C above 400m. Some sunny intervals may develop in parts of the west. Winds WSW 30-50 km/hr veering to NW then N 30-50 km/hr for most regions, although already northeast 30-50 km/hr in Ulster, becoming NE later today in north Leinster and much of Connacht. Average rainfalls 5-7 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers continuing, with sleet or snow at higher elevations. The winds will slowly become more northerly for most and then northeasterly as the low drifts further south in the Irish Sea. A further 3-5 mm rain is likely with lows 2-4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sleet or wet snow possible at elevations above 200m above sea level, cold rain or hail showers closer to sea level, some sunny breaks developing, winds generally northeast backing to east 30-50 km/hr. Some accumulations of 3-15 cm on high terrain above 400m, rainfalls at lower elevations 3-7 mm. Afternoon highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Frosty to start, some clear intervals with increasing cloudiness by afternoon, moderate east winds becoming southeast 30-50 km/hr, morning lows near -2 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Early morning rain and moderate southerly winds veering to SW'ly 40-70 km/hr then increasing to WSW 70-120 km/hr by evening , showers or longer periods of rain with hail and thunder, 20-30 mm rainfalls possible, turning somewhat milder with highs near 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued very windy in the morning, high tides could produce coastal flooding, then easing to moderate westerly winds with showers, lows about 6 C and highs around 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold to start with some frost and ice, sunny intervals then slowly increasing winds, rain by later in the day in moderate southerly winds, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Further showers and strong S-SW winds at times, highs around 9 or 10 C.

Forecasts for Britain

With the track of the low mainly west of Britain, the winds will back slowly from WSW to SSE over the next two days, and frequent showers will continue. Somewhat colder air will edge west from central Europe and could mix into the circulation near the east coast and over most of eastern Scotland and northeast England, where sleet or snow could replace the rain showers -- the models are backing off slightly on how strong this colder air mass is likely to be, but it remains dominant north and east of Newcastle to Glasgow to the Hebrides, and it could send out some outliers to the north coast of Ulster while the rest of Ireland remains mild. Otherwise for Britain, the highs will be close to average values of 6-9 C.

Forecasts for North America

The intense cold continues in the east and most central states and almost all of Canada except for B.C., although the large east coast cities will not be fully engaged at about -10 C, whereas the Midwest will be fortunate to reach -20 C for today's high and then should see another night close to -30 C. It will remain rather mild but more cloudy now near the west coast and sunny with cloudy intervals, warm over the southwest states. Snow will develop over parts of the central Rockies and will slowly spread east but a separate area of sleet and snow will develop over the Gulf coast and move towards the inland southeast, bringing some southern states a rare 10-15 cm snowfall. Florida will remain a bit milder in cold northeast winds with highs near 12 C north and 18 C south. My local weather on Monday was cloudy with some fog patches close to the ocean, a bit colder than the weekend at about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2014 6:08am

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 29 January, 2014 _ 0510h

If you see this before 0730h and have clear skies (most likely in west Munster) check out the sunrise glow for a possible sighting of Venus and the waning crescent of the moon. They may be too low to spot before 0600h.

Forecast will be updated soon, no large changes to make. Today should be somewhat less unsettled in the southwest than in other regions and showers could become sleety or even turn to snow in the eastern regions at higher elevations.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2014 6:09am

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 29 January, 2014 _ 0510h

If you see this before 0730h and have clear skies (most likely in west Munster) check out the sunrise glow for a possible sighting of Venus and the waning crescent of the moon. They may be too low to spot before 0600h.

Forecast will be updated soon, no large changes to make. Today should be somewhat less unsettled in the southwest than in other regions and showers could become sleety or even turn to snow in the eastern regions at higher elevations.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2014 8:12am

Wednesday, 29 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds, possible shoreline damage from storm surges from mid-day Friday to late Saturday. See forecasts for details.

TODAY ... Some sunny breaks in west Munster and inland Connacht, but mostly cloudy elsewhere with showery rainfalls turning to sleet or snow on higher ground, particularly in Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Rainfalls of about 5-10 mm in some places and snowfalls of 5-10 cm on higher ground. Winds generally northerly with a tendency to back towards northeast in parts of Ulster and north Leinster, 40-60 km/hr at times. Highs 5-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Cold with sleety showers continuing mostly south and east of a Dublin to Limerick line, snow accumulating on hills in southeast. Clearing at times further north, isolated frost and ice. Lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Some sunny intervals once any ground fog dissipates, frost lingering in shade, cold. Highs 4-7 C. Some rain possible by evening in west, but starting as sleet on higher ground.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, some heavy with thunder. Winds generally moderate south to southwest until late afternoon or evening when stormy conditions will arrive rapidly from west to east. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon or evening highs 7-10 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY ... Very windy or stormy with squally showers, thunder and hail, winds SW 70-120 km/hr with possible higher gusts, shoreline damage from high tides or storm surges especially for west-facing bays and harbours. Temperatures steady near 7 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm could also produce some spot flooding.

SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals, less windy, showers redeveloping, morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled next week with frequent showers or periods of rain and intervals of strong winds.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Periods of rain or showers, moderate south to southwest winds for most of England and south Wales, northeast winds further north. Highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT to SATURDAY will see a similar sequence of weather to Ireland except that some places in southeast England will not clear between systems and rain or sleet could continue there on Thursday. The strongest winds may be confined to Ireland as the system begins to weaken before hitting Britain but even so, gusty winds will sweep across most regions on Saturday and again on Monday.

Forecasts for North America

Further snow or sleet ending later today in parts of the southeast U.S., and remaining unseasonably cold in most places east of the Rockies with further outbreaks of lake effect snow as winds increase for part of the day in the Great Lakes region. Highs only around -7 C at best in most of the eastern U.S. and Ontario-Quebec, and near -12 C or colder in the Midwest and plains states. The west will see outbreaks of rain and slightly colder temperatures developing in easterly winds, but the southwest U.S. should stay quite warm, with showers or mountain flurries developing in the higher parts of the Great Basin region. ... My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with some light rain and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2014 8:35am

Thursday, 30 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds gusting to 130 km/hr, shoreline damage from storm surges south and west coasts most at risk, from mid-day Friday to late Saturday. See forecasts for details.

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 21:39h while perigee takes place a few hours earlier around 10h.

TODAY ... Mostly dry with some brief sunny intervals in eastern and northern counties, once any ground fog dissipates, frost lingering in shade, cold. Highs 4-7 C. Some rain moving into western counties, but starting as sleet on higher ground., making some progress east by mid-day, 3-5 mm potential.

TONIGHT ... Sleet or snow in some higher terrain with rain spreading across the lower elevations, turning a bit milder after midnight, lows -2 to +3 C, winds picking up to SSW 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, some heavy during the morning hours, with thunder and hail. Winds generally moderate south to southwest 50-80 km/hr until late afternoon or evening when stormy conditions will arrive rapidly from west to east. Highs 7-10 C, mildest near south coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY ... Very windy or stormy with squally showers, thunder and hail, winds SW 80-130 km/hr except in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster, with lighter winds near the approaching low centre (SE 30-50 km/hr there), shoreline damage from high tides or storm surges especially for west-facing bays and harbours around 0600h. Temperatures steady near 6 C. Storm total rainfalls 15-30 mm could also produce some spot flooding. ... Later Saturday expect partly cloudy skies, gradually moderating westerly gales and further passing showers, turning readily to sleet or snow on higher ground.

SUNDAY ... Some clear intervals, less windy, showers redeveloping, morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled next week with frequent showers or periods of rain and intervals of strong winds to about 110 km/hr around Monday and again on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs generally around 8 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, some lingering fog or freezing fog, drizzle near some south and east facing coasts, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT to SATURDAY will become stormy in western districts, not as windy in most of Scotland but picking up to moderate westerly by late Saturday, however, peaking around 100 km/hr in most of the south as the storm weakens steadily after hitting western Ireland. Next week could be quite windy at times also. Highs generally 8-10 C.

Forecasts for North America

Dry and cold in most eastern regions, becoming cloudy in the Midwest and a bit milder with 3-5 cm snowfalls by afternoon or evening. Clear and quite cold in the northern plains and Canadian prairies (once this snow moves out) and milder, to quite warm in parts of the southwesterrn U.S. ... rain turning to sleet or snow on hills in the Pacific northwest and parts of B.C. ... my local weather on Wednesday was overcast with some light rain, highs near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 7:50am

Friday, 31 January, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERTS for heavy rainfalls today and wintry showers tonight, these mainly in western counties and above 150m above sea level ... ALERT for strong winds gusting to 130 km/hr and severe coastal flooding around high tides, most notably Saturday morning.

TODAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times, thundery showers developing, 20-30 mm rainfalls and spot flooding ... winds SSE veering SW 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations, highs 10-12 C about mid-day then turning colder, some clearing but renewed showers becoming more wintry by evening.

TONIGHT ... Colder with sleety or wintry showers in a strong southwest wind, lows 0-2 C around midnight, temperatures may rise thereafter in gale to storm force SW'ly winds arriving in western counties around 0300h, gusts to 130 km/hr by morning. Occasional sleet or rain further north and winds decreasing in parts of Ulster to 40-60 km/hr. ... Where snow falls on hills, 3-5 cm accumulations are possible, mainly above 200m asl.

SATURDAY ... Very windy with severe coastal flooding west and south at morning high tides, gusts to 130 km/hr in exposed parts of west and south, may push inland or even to the east coast, where peak gusts more likely to be around 110 km/hr. Cold although freezing levels will rise so that sleet and snow only widespread above 400m asl. Frequent squally showers of hail or sleet with some thunder, equivalent to 10 mm rainfalls. Highs 5-8 C. Winds should decrease somewhat by afternoon and evening, westerly 50-90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Overnight clearing may produce some frost or fog, lows of -2 to 3 C and less windy by morning, then increasing cloud, winds increasing rapidly again with rain and evening or overnight highs near 10 C with a further 15-25 mm rain by Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more episodes of strong winds and heavy rains appear likely as the weekend storm circles around to produce further unsettled weather and strong frontal waves moving up from the south. Temperatures will peak near 10 C during the windy intervals and fall off to 5-7 C between them.

Watch for an update around late afternoon or evening, any new thoughts on Britain and North America will be posted then, otherwise, consult the previous forecast package, main details unchanged.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with showers and a high of 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2014 8:03am

Saturday, 1 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds, severe coastal flooding, and wintry showers on higher ground this morning. Some moderation is expected by afternoon or evening.

TODAY ... Very windy in southern and central counties, WSW 70-120 km/hr with some higher gusts in exposed locations, strongest winds expected around 0900h west and 1200h east. Frequent squally showers, some with thunder and hail ... sleet and snow possible on higher terrain. Meanwhile, northern counties will have only moderate winds that may briefly die down to almost calm as the low centre passes around mid-day; showers or periods of rain with sleet or snow at times on higher ground. Highs 5-8 C south, 4-7 north.

Coastal flooding likely around high tides or even between them when winds reach their maximum speed.

TONIGHT ... Less windy, showers more wintry again but then dying out, lows about -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals at first, then increasing cloud, winds only moderate westerly then backing to southerly and rapidly increasing by late in the day as heavy rain moves in (15-30 mm potential overnight). Highs will reach 8-10 C late afternoon or evening.

MONDAY ... Windy with rain or showers, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C. Winds S veering to SW 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, becoming very windy or stormy late in the day, winds SSE 70-110 km/hr, some severe gusts possible in southwest. This storm will peak overnight then subside on Wednesday morning. Rainfalls of about 20 mm, spot flooding likely as ground saturated from previous events. Mudslides could block roads in higher isolated rural areas.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Cloudy, further showers, then rain becoming heavy once again, severe flood potential given the cumulative effect of the rain more than this particular addition of 10-20 mm. Highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern remains rather unsettled beyond all of the above.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Becoming windy mid-day or afternoon, periods of rain with sleet or snow on higher ground, severe coastal flooding in south and west. Highs about 7-10 C. Winds peaking in southwest England at about 80-120 km/hr, otherwise closer to 70-100 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... In general the same unsettled and sometimes stormy pattern will affect most of Britain, especially the southwest.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will develop over the Midwest and move through the Great Lakes with some rain or sleet closer to the Ohio valley and inland northeast. Dry and mild near the east coast, highs 8-10 C. Much warmer now in the southeast and south central states, highs back to more normal values of 15-20 C. Colder across the Rockies with outbreaks of snow, warmer air over southern Arizona likely to be pushed south by later today with showers developing. My local weather on Friday was cloudy with some late afternoon clearing, high of 8 C.

Check the storm discussion thread for timely updates and reports.

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2014 8:13am

Sunday, 2 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for another interval of strong winds and heavy rainfalls later today and tonight, and ADVANCE ALERT for possible severe winds and coastal flooding around Tuesday night and next Saturday (naturally, confidence in each event is lower with more time for changes to occur).

TODAY will continue rather windy with passing showers and some dry intervals, then winds will back from SW to SSE and increase to 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs about 9 or 10 C, feeling somewhat milder despite the strong wind.

TONIGHT will become very windy especially in parts of the south and east, with gusts to 110 km/hr, as winds veer from SE to SW around midnight. Some bursts of heavy rain will bring daily totals up to about 15 mm. Clearing and breezy towards morning. Overnight lows 3-6 C coldest in northwest. Slight risk of sleet or snow on higher ground.

MONDAY will see partly cloudy skies and passing showers in moderately strong SW to W winds of 50-80 km/hr. Highs will reach 8-10 C.

TUESDAY will begin with partly to mostly cloudy skies, then rain will develop along with very strong southeast to south winds. By evening these may reach storm force near the south coast and there could be coastal flooding as well as spot flooding inland from 15-30 mm rainfalls. Highs will reach 10-12 C but it may turn quite a bit colder in parts of the west by evening, turning some of the rain showers to hail or sleet. Overnight, gale to storm force winds are likely, veering from SSE to SW at 80-130 km/hr. Parts of the northwest could escape the strongest gusts and this storm will be more focused on the south coast but will also be quite strong in Leinster.

WEDNESDAY morning could remain stormy, then the afternoon will probably see the strongest winds slowly decreasing but it will stay rather windy at 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning lows 5-8 C and afternoon highs 8-10 C although some parts of the west and northwest could have lower readings between 2 and 7 C. Further rainfalls of 10-15 mm. The constant additional rain could lead to widespread flooding.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy with passing showers that may become increasingly wintry, with lows near 1 or 2 C and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY will have a rather chilly start with frost and ice possible, then mixed wintry showers will turn to rain with highs 7-9 C, then by Friday night into SATURDAY yet another strong windstorm could arrive from the Atlantic following a track from WSW to ENE across the country, with potential for wind gusts well in excess of 100 km/hr and heavy rains. Although lunar tides are at a minimum later this week, these very strong winds could still produce storm surges again.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for somewhat colder weather, still unsettled, perhaps not as windy in general.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will see moderate southwest winds and passing showers, highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT and MONDAY will be windy with periods of rain, highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy and less windy and highs near 8 C, but on WEDNESDAY another windstorm is likely to arrive during the early morning (southwest) lasting most of the day, highs near 10 C with heavy rain.

OUTLOOK is then similar to Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

Cloudy with light rain or sleet inland northeast, snow ending Great Lakes region, turning a bit colder. At the Super Bowl site near NYC, cloudy with passing sleety showers and around 5 C. A larger snowstorm is expected to organize later today and Monday over the southern Rockies and move out into the plains states early Tuesday bringing heavy rains to the southeast, ice or sleet to the Ohio valley, and 10-30 cm snowfalls to the Midwest and Great Lakes regions by Wednesday. Meanwhile the west is colder now with mostly dry conditions under high pressure, and sharp frosts at night. My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and cool with a high of about 3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 8:18am

Monday, 3 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continued for strong winds mainly south, central and eastern counties, heavy rainfalls, local flooding risks ... ADVANCE ALERT for severe winds and heavy rains redeveloping Tuesday afternoon-evening into mid-day Wednesday, and also for yet another severe wind and rain event on Friday night and Saturday.

TODAY ... Very windy in south coastal counties and some exposed portions of central and eastern counties from SSE gales 70-120 km/hr. Coastal flooding at high tides. Heavy rain moving slowly east, 20-40 mm potential, some squally thundershowers may be embedded in the rainfall by mid-day, with spot flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Highs 9-11 C. A slow-moving windshift line will generally be marked by a rapid reduction in wind speeds to about 20 to 40 km/hr westerly. Clearing will be further behind but may bring some late afternoon sunshine in the western coastal counties.

TONIGHT ... Eastern counties will see lighter rain, drizzle and then clearing, while the rest of the country remains mostly clear with isolated showers, and possible frost in sheltered inland locations as lows drop to -2 to +3 C. Winds generally light, picking up from southwest near coasts.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, winds rapidly increasing from SE reaching speeds of 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, with rain developing, highs 9-12 C. Parts of Connacht will see winds backing to NE 40-70 km/hr. By late afternoon and evening, southeast gales with storm force gusts likely in most regions, reaching 90-130 km/hr, strongest gusts near south coast and exposed portions of east coast. Total rainfalls for this storm 30-50 mm could produce widespread flooding and the strong winds will add a risk of renewed coastal flooding mainly from Cork to Dundalk.

WEDNESDAY ... After overnight gales and heavy rainfall, winds will veer rapidly to westerly 70-120 km/hr (some parts of Connacht could have a brief interval of ligh winds near the low centre), and hail or sleet showers will continue with risk of thunder. Morning lows near 7 C and afternoon temperatures steady near 7 C or dropping slowly.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and less windy, morning frosts, isolated wintry showers in north. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Another severe wind storm is currently indicated on most forecast models, and this will arrive Friday evening after a generally cloudy and cold day with mixed wintry showers turning to rain in a rising southerly gale. Some indications suggest wind gusts as strong as 140 km/hr with this event (early morning Saturday) and the weather will remain very unsettled for several days afterwards.

Consult the previous day's posting for Britain and North American forecasts which remain as described.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and cool with a high of about 4 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-02-2014 8:46am

Tuesday, 4 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong winds, heavy rainfalls, spot flooding and coastal flooding near high tides overnight, most severe from Cork east to Wexford and in parts of the inland southeast, and ADVANCE ALERT for another severe wind and rain event on Friday night into Saturday.

TODAY ... Some sunshine to start the day with light winds for most of the morning hours, then increasing cloud, winds rapidly increasing from SE reaching speeds of 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, with rain developing and some embedded thunderstorms or squally hail showers, highs reaching 9-12 C. Parts of Connacht will see winds backing to NE 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... By late afternoon and evening, southeasterly to southerly gales with storm force gusts likely in most regions, reaching 90-130 km/hr, strongest gusts near south coast and exposed portions of east coast. Total rainfalls for this storm 30-50 mm could produce widespread flooding and the strong winds will add a risk of renewed coastal flooding mainly from Cork around the southeast coasts to Dundalk. Later in the night, winds will abate especially over west Munster and Connacht near the track of the low, a calm period may set in, and rain will generally become drizzly except in east Ulster and parts of Leinster. Overnight lows quite mild at 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The lighter winds will move northeast across the midlands and Leinster into east Ulster, after which, winds will veer rapidly to westerly 70-110 km/hr and hail or sleet showers will continue with risk of thunder. Morning lows near 7 C and afternoon temperatures steady near 7 C or dropping slowly.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy and less windy (SW 30-50 km/hr), morning frosts, isolated wintry showers in north and hail or rain showers in parts of the south. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Another severe wind storm is currently indicated on most forecast models, and this will arrive Friday evening after a generally cloudy and cold day with mixed wintry showers turning to rain in a rising southerly gale. Some indications suggest wind gusts from the southwest becoming as strong as 140 km/hr with this event (early morning Saturday) with temperatures steady around 6-8 C, and the weather will remain very unsettled for several days afterwards.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start out with some frost and fog patches, sunny breaks, and light winds. Becoming rather windy late in the day with rain arriving in southwest, highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will become very windy with coastal flooding and gusts to 120 km/hr from the south, somewhat less extreme in eastern counties, heavy rainfalls to 30 mm and spot flooding inland. Lows 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue very windy (SW 70-110 km/hr) with squally showers, highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY will also be wet and windy especially in the southeast, as a storm that passes well to the south of Ireland moves across northwest France and southern England. Highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will bring a brief respite with some sunny intervals, highs near 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... stormy with damaging wind gusts on Saturday, remaining quite windy on Sunday, frequent showers or periods of rain, highs around 8 C.

Forecasts for North America

Cold and dry over the Midwest and Great Lakes, northeast U.S., with snow arriving tonight and lasting through most of tomorrow, 10-20 cm likely, temperatures steady around -3 C. Snow in the central plains states today and freezing rain trending to rain closer to the Gulf coast. These will all move into the southeast and mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. Clear and cold in the far west with highs below freezing even on the coast to -15 C or lower inland, while the southwest continues to chill down from north to south. My local weather on Monday was sunny but very cold at -2 C. There was one isolated area of heavy snow across the Straits on eastern Vancouver Island but no snow below 700m on our local mountains.

Watch for updates and visit the storm thread for up to the minute analysis and chat.

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2014 8:06am

Wednesday, 5 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Much less windy for most today, as the complex centre of the low drifts northeast through Munster into Leinster. This will slowly end the moderate southeast winds still left over, but not the rainfall which will continue to drop 10-20 mm more over most counties. Skies will begin to break to partly cloudy but there could be fog or mist near coasts and on hills. ... The far northern counties will remain in a moderate easterly wind of 40-70 km/hr. By afternoon and evening, westerly winds 50-80 km/hr will develop over western and later southern counties. Highs about 8 to 10 C. Some spot flooding may continue from excessive runoff and coastal areas could see rather high tides again although likely not to storm surge levels.

TONIGHT ... Further showers slowly ending, foggy in some areas, lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, moderate westerly winds backing to southwest, highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... A frosty start with some sunshine followed by increasing cloud, periods of rain in strong southerly winds that may become gale to storm force late in the day in the southwest. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Very windy or stormy across the south (based on current model indications of a deep low crossing central Ireland west to east), heavy rainfalls in many places, 20-30 mm potential, and fog, rain or sleet, easterly winds across Ulster and parts of North Connacht. Highs 4-7 C north and 7-10 C in the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled (surprise) with further outbreaks of showers but looking somewhat colder next week so that some of these showers could become wintry again. Longer range output suggests very mild temperatures could occur around the 20th.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be windy with heavy rain showers, highs near 9 C.

The outlook is similar to Ireland except that on Thursday night and Friday morning, a separate low that moves in from well south of Ireland could bring 20-30 mm rainfalls to south central and eastern England and milder temperatures in the London area than most other places (10-12 C). Once that system departs, the Saturday wind and rain event will be cleared to move in during the day. Once again, it won't be as intense for Britain as it appears likely to be in the southern coastal counties of Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

Our Saturday storm is now crossing the eastern U.S. inland mountain ranges with 10-20 cm snowfalls in parts of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes moving into the inland northeast later today. Freezing rain and sleet may turn to snow from D.C. to south of Boston including the NYC region. The heaviest snow is predicted for Albany NY with 30 cms. Meanwhile slightly milder air is moving into the southeastern states (10-14 C) with rain or thundershowers. The storm has left heavy snow in the central plains states and it will clear there later with sub-freezing highs, but inland western Canada is colder at -20 C. This arctic air mass extends to the snow-free coast where it will remain in the -3 C range.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and cold with a low of -8 C and a high of only -3 C. The ground is quite dry but beginning to freeze.

M.T. Cranium · 06-02-2014 7:57am

Thursday, 6 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls (15-30 mm) Friday afternoon and evening, followed by strong south to southwest winds across the south coastal counties, some gusts to 120 km/hr possible.

TODAY ... Some welcome sunny intervals for most, any showers will likely be confined to coastal south and far north, with isolated hail showers possible later when winds turn more to a northerly direction. Chilly to start and highs reaching 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frosty in eastern half, lows there -3 to +2 C but staying more cloudy in west, lows 2-6 C. Winds fairly light, fog patches may develop after midnight.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud in the east, cloudy with strengthening southerly winds and rain arriving mid-day in west, rain becoming heavy by late afternoon and evening. Winds increasing to southerly 70-110 km/hr for the south coast, 50-80 km/hr elsewhere. Highs 9-12 C by late afternoon or evening.

SATURDAY ... Strong winds likely again in the south, SW 70-120 km/hr in exposed locations. If the low moves inland around Galway as currently indicated, winds across the north will actually decrease for much of the day but any shift north might spread the stronger winds further north as well. Heavy rain will turn to scattered showers, some with hail and thunder, and temperatures will be steady around 7-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued showery and windy at times, lows 3-5 C and highs around 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Clear intervals, frosty to start, increasing cloud, showers later, lows near -2 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY may bring on some very strong south to southwest winds as a low races northeast across the country. This one may bring an interval of severe gusts because it could be rapidly developing near Ireland. Temperatures would be close to 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder and continued unsettled.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be cloudy with rain developing, rather windy in the south, milder in the southeast (near 12 C). This system is currently south of Ireland and may spread some cloud over Wexford.

OUTLOOK is generally similar to Ireland, with strong winds and heavy rains returning on Saturday and possibly again on Tuesday, otherwise partly cloudy and showery.

Forecasts for North America

Clear and cold in most of the Midwest and eastern U.S., Ontario and Quebec as the snowstorm moves through the Maritime provinces of eastern Canada. Continued clear and very cold in western Canada, and much of the northwest United States, but showers spreading into drought-ravaged California turning to snow over higher elevations inland. ... My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a piercing northeast wind, highs near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2014 8:37am

Friday, 7 February, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls (20-30 mm) and strong winds by tonight, mainly in the south at first but spreading further north during Saturday afternoon, with gusts to 120 km/hr.

TODAY ... A frosty and sunny start in most of the eastern half, becoming partly cloudy further west with isolated morning showers. Increasing cloud in all regions by mid-day followed by rain spreading gradually east with rising southerly winds reaching 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon (somewhat later arrival in east Ulster). Highs near 8 C by late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Very windy and wet, some embedded thunderstorms, total rainfalls 20-30 mm by morning. Winds across the south rising to S-SW 70-120 km/hr, particularly stormy in Kerry and west Cork. Further north, winds may tend to decrease towards morning as the slack winds of the low centre come closer to landfall. Temperatures will stay rather mild at first in the east but will slowly drop off to 2-4 C further west which may turn some of the rain to sleet or snow on higher ground in west Munster and Connacht.

SATURDAY ... Strong winds will veer more to westerly and will continue in the 70-120 km/hr range most of the day in the south, but as the low centre comes ashore (possibly with sub-950 mb pressures) the stronger winds will spread into the Galway to Dublin regions and possibly further north by late afternoon, although in the range of 60-100 km/hr for most away from the exposed Galway and Clare coasts. The steady rain will break up to scattered but heavy showers, some with hail and thunder, and 10-15 mm additional rain will add to spot flooding concerns. Some wintry showers may develop on higher ground as temperatures remain steady in the 5-8 C range and thus may fall to 3-5 C higher up.

SUNDAY ... Not quite as windy (W 50-80 km/hr) but rather cold with mixed wintry showers for most elevations, more frequently hail or rain near sea level. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, gusts to near 100 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Risk of a stormy interval but no certainty on this yet, temperatures most likely to be in the 7-9 C range so that rain showers would be more likely than wintry showers but those could occur in higher areas.

OUTLOOK ... As the model output is rather chaotic, the best call on this is probably unsettled and rather cold with increasing chances of wintry showers in the mix. At some point during the week, another intense storm could develop, but some models show this moving more to the south and affecting France and southern England, with a later impulse moving past the northwest coasts.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will see further rain with clearing spreading east by afternoon, moderate northerly winds becoming northwesterly 40-70 km/hr. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will start out clear in the east with increasing cloud and strong winds with rain by morning, meanwhile the stormy conditions will have spread into western regions before midnight. Some parts of southern England and Wales could eventually see gusts to 130 km/hr by morning. Lows 3-5 C.

SATURDAY will continue stormy in most areas with heavy rainfalls and very gusty winds. Highs 7-10 C. Gusts from southwest to 130 km/hr.

The outlook period is subject to the same general uncertainty but seems very likely to remain windy or even stormy at times with intervals of heavy rain.

Forecasts for North America

There will be widespread cold, dry and mostly sunny weather almost from coast to coast as high pressure extends from the B.C. mountains to the New England coast. Weak disturbances will form over the inland southwest bringing mostly snow to elevations higher than Las Vegas or southern Arizona where rain showers are more likely. Some scattered outbreaks of sleet or snow will develop across the south central and southeastern U.S. ... My local weather on Thursday was sunny and cold again, high near -2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2014 8:06am

Saturday, 8 February

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT continued for very strong winds in the southern coastal counties, spreading gradually to the Galway to Dublin regions by mid-day, some gusts in exposed areas to 130 km/hr, more generally to 110 km/hr ... further heavy showers with some thunder, hail; and sleet on higher ground.

TODAY ... Very windy or stormy at times in the south, with frequent showers and some hail with thunder, sleet on hills, winds WSW 80-130 km/hr with some coastal flooding possible, wind damage in exposed locations, highs about 7-8 C. ... Moderate southwest winds further north may become strong by mid-day with gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed locations, rain or showers with hail or thunder. Some parts of the northwest could experience the calm eye of this storm which will move across Belmullet into Donegal Bay and then over Donegal and Derry with pressures below 947 mbs, one of the lowest readings ever seen on land in Ireland (the record is 942 mbs). Highs in the north also around 7-8 C. About 4-5 C on higher terrain and 2-4 C on summits.

Stronger winds will probably creep further north at a very slow pace at first, passing the Shannon estuary around 0900h then reaching Galway perhaps about 1-2 p.m. Following that the spread northward will be faster but at a time where the more intense gusts may be diminishing.

TONIGHT ... Continued very windy for a while (W 60-100 km/hr) then more moderate winds (WNW 40-70 km/hr) with showers becoming somewhat less frequent but also more wintry especially on higher terrain. Lows 2-5 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with squally showers, winds west 50-80 km/hr but backing to southerly and somewhat lighter by evening. Highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Windy at times, showers or periods of rain, lows 3-5 C and highs about 10 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... This period remains highly uncertain with different models showing strong winds at somewhat different times throughout the period. There is likely to be one or perhaps two intervals of very strong winds and I would think Wednesday might be the most likely day for a brief interval of gusts above 100 km/hr. Highs each day will be around 7-9 C. Showers will be frequent, sometimes wintry and squally.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It will likely remain unsettled for several more days with near normal temperatures but some risk of wintry showers at colder times and on higher ground.

I will update the Britain and North America forecasts tomorrow, my local weather on Friday was sunny and cold but without much wind this time and a high near -1 C.

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