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Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009
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Not a bad GFS 06Z operational run at all.
Retrogression is not complete until T+228 timeframe however, so the latter part is still in FI, so confidence cannot be certain on this retrogression still.
It seems that there is a trend this morning for height rises over Greenland and for the high to retrogress to a point just south of Greenland.
Either way, on this run, almost all of Ireland remains under upper 850hPA temps of approx -5 to -7 from the T+240 timeframe (3rd January) out to the T+384 timeframe (09th January).
IMO, the crucial aspect is going to be for the retrogression of the high. It is crucial if we are to obtain a decent wintry spell into the new year.
Here's the T+300 timeframe:
All in all, a continued trend on this run towards possibly wintry conditions as we head out into the new year. I would also expect some ensemble members to be trending colder than GFS operational on this run.. However maybe they won't. We shall see. Either way, its very encouraging. Although my biggest concern at the moment would be that we achieve successful retrogression of the high or decent height rises over Greenland.
Still very encouraging.
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lets call a spade a spade.Snowaddict wrote: »Not a bad GFS 06Z operational run at all.
Retrogression is not complete until T+228 timeframe however, so the latter part is still in FI, so confidence cannot be certain on this retrogression still.
That means there is no confidence as you are forever looking to FI for it.
Trouble is it's staying in FI.It seems that there is a trend this morning for height rises over Greenland and for the high to retrogress to a point just south of Greenland.
Everytime you come here saying it's at whatever timeframe away it seems to stay at that distance even 48hrs later.
What does that tell you?
which is frankly a useless piece of information if when we come to the 9th you come along with a statement like.."all of Ireland is under -5 to -7 850's from the 16th..Either way, on this run, almost all of Ireland remains under upper 850hPA temps of approx -5 to -7 from the T+240 timeframe (3rd January) out to the T+384 timeframe (09th January).
Do you get me?
Well thats everybodies opinion not just yours.Trouble is we are no closer.IMO, the crucial aspect is going to be for the retrogression of the high. It is crucial if we are to obtain a decent wintry spell into the new year.
firstly thats dry with no wind at all - look at the pressure! It's very cold yes but useless as it's +300Here's the T+300 timeframe:
Well to be fair you are right on that but as it's all FI and not getting any closer on GFS,we may aswell be reading mills and boon for all the romance it's going to give us.
All in all, a continued trend on this run towards possibly wintry conditions as we head out into the new year.
"ensemble members" arent people by the way,It's a clique term for the other runs within the GFS that were simply ran with different parameters than the operational.I would also expect some ensemble members to be trending colder than GFS operational on this run.. However maybe they won't. We shall see.
heh we'll see in 300hours where we are with that one...I'll be looking at the ECM in the meantime.Either way, its very encouraging. Although my biggest concern at the moment would be that we achieve successful retrogression of the high or decent height rises over Greenland.
It is in it's Aunt sally.Still very encouraging.0 -
The above comments were mainly related to the GFS and it's uselessness as a model in handling Easterlies.
You'd have to be carefull though as it's as good with Northerlies as it is with southwesterlies ie usually very good so if it's delaying a retrogression,then it's not good.
However,it will be having a problem dealing with our high anyways so theres no point in worrying about FI GFS or anything it says really.
Meanwhile,theres good news from the UK met office.
Their latest 2 week forecast updateUK Outlook for Monday 29 Dec 2008 to Wednesday 7 Jan 2009:
There is high confidence for high pressure to continue to dominate as we go into 2009, although with an increasing risk of wintry precipitation around some of the peripheries as time goes on. It will be mainly dry through the first week, with variable cloud but also sunny spells. By Friday 2nd January the first incursions are suggested, either wintry showers in eastern districts or more likely a spell of sleet and snow fringing southern coastal counties of England. During the second week the risk of risk of sleet or snow increases across southern and eastern Britain, with freshening easterly winds. It will feel raw in the south at first, and again later as the easterly winds again increase. Temperatures, generally below normal, with frosts both morning and night.
Updated: 1129 on Wed 24 Dec 2008
That suggest that their own privately available data is tending towards a big freeze up early in the new year
Remember they are usually conservative in what they post on their site..0 -
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That post from uk weather only says snow on east or south coast of england which means us in ireland wont get any :eek:Deleted User wrote: »
That suggest that their own privately available data is tending towards a big freeze up early in the new year
If it was west england i would be happy0 -
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Just to reiterate now that I'm gone ECMWF mad [never a bad position to be in]
That ECM chart SA posted earlier and Brens analysis of it on TWO is a textbook easterly assuming the continent is freezing by then.
It doesnt look fantastic 850 temp wise but you have a gigantic pool of freezing surface air to feed upon.
It's worth posting again as it's what you need to see pan out.It's a real 1980's flash back except it *might* pan out in early 2009.
Fingers crossed that charts like that start appearing in the reliable time frame.
The UKMO seem confident enough to ditch their usually conservative forecasts this far out...
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Hi to all and Happy Christmas !
As my name suggests, I am a big fan of snow. I can remember the snow of 1982 - amazing !
However, since then I have always wanted to see more snow in Ireland
Alas, this thread is fascinating
However, each year (I suppose like the rest of you!) , I get my hopes up for a decent snowfall and it just does not materialise ; the last good snow I remember was winter 2000/2001
So I don't mean to put a dampener on things and I am no weather expert (just have basic knowledge) but I have a feeling we are in for a cloudy chilly snap from St Stephen's Day through to early January followed by the usual mild mucky wet weather in January with temps of 7 through to 12oC
Sorry to be negative....I am just trying to be realistic and warning against the FI scenarios outlined in this post....
I really hope I am proved wrong !
Snowfan.
lol
BB is that you signed in under different user name supporting your posts?
:D:D 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »No.
Whats with all the black briar bashing ?
If you don't want my posts I will go.
Brown Bear, I mean Black Briar (Kerry1960 you've gone and stuck that in my head now forever), we do appreciate your posts here of course, sometimes the delivery is a little TWO'esque at times though it has to be said. Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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I am trying to avoid two ..it's bad luck
Though I do pay attention to Brens posts over there simply because he works for a private met service and used work afaik for the Met in Bracknell
Most of his thoughts are ECM driven I see and positive on the possibility of prolonged cold.
I do believe in discussing posts and expecting challenges to them as part of a discussion.
Thats what boards.ie is-a discussion forum board.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »lets call a spade a spade.
That means there is no confidence as you are forever looking to FI for it.
Listen Black Briar, this is getting a bit annoying now, if all you are going to do is quote me in your posts and then slate my posts, its going to turn out quite boring on here. Why don't you do more evaluation of the outputs for us instead of picking on one member who is trying to make constructive additions to this forum.
So what if the cold spell does not come off, the signals are all there for it. I've been calling for a cold spell just after Xmas for three weeks now, and yes it will be getting colder. So that wasn't a bad call was it?
Now the UK Met Office, who would have to be quite confident before issuing an outlook like that, also mention this very cold spell. You can continue to criticise me all you want and try to pick out holes in what I post, but it won't reduce my optimism or enthuasiasm to post on here. Furthermore, of course ensemble members are not people, but I try to post in a way that helps people on here who might not have much experience at viewing the model outputs yet. Quit the obsession with slating my posts Black Briar.
I have been saying for several days now that I expect the first real round of cold COULD reach Ireland between the 3rd to 5th of January. With the met office update expecting them to reach England by the 2nd, then I think I have been fairly right in saying the more severe cold could reach Ireland between the 3rd and 5th.
By Friday 2nd January the first incursions are suggested, either wintry showers in eastern districts or more likely a spell of sleet and snow fringing southern coastal counties of England. During the second week the risk of sleet or snow increases across southern and eastern Britain, with freshening easterly winds. It will feel raw in the south at first, and again later as the easterly winds again increase. Temperatures, generally below normal, with frosts both morning and night.
Anyway, back on topic and I haven't viewed today's runs yet, but will post regarding them in the next while.
SA. 0 -
Bye bye folks :mad:Snowaddict wrote: »Listen Black Briar, this is getting a bit annoying now, if all you are going to do is quote me in your posts and then slate my posts, its going to turn out quite boring on here. Why don't you do more evaluation of the outputs for us instead of picking on one member who is trying to make constructive additions to this forum.
So what if the cold spell does not come off, the signals are all there for it. I've been calling for a cold spell just after Xmas for three weeks now, and yes it will be getting colder. So that wasn't a bad call was it?
Now the UK Met Office, who would have to be quite confident before issuing an outlook like that, also mention this very cold spell. You can continue to criticise me all you want and try to pick out holes in what I post, but it won't reduce my optimism or enthuasiasm to post on here. Furthermore, of course ensemble members are not people, but I try to post in a way that helps people on here who might not have much experience at viewing the model outputs yet. Quit the obsession with slating my posts Black Briar.
I have been saying for several days now that I expect the first real round of cold COULD reach Ireland between the 3rd to 5th of January. With the met office update expecting them to reach England by the 2nd, then I think I have been fairly right in saying the more severe cold could reach Ireland between the 3rd and 5th.
By Friday 2nd January the first incursions are suggested, either wintry showers in eastern districts or more likely a spell of sleet and snow fringing southern coastal counties of England. During the second week the risk of sleet or snow increases across southern and eastern Britain, with freshening easterly winds. It will feel raw in the south at first, and again later as the easterly winds again increase. Temperatures, generally below normal, with frosts both morning and night.
Anyway, back on topic and I haven't viewed today's runs yet, but will post regarding them in the next while.
SA.0 -
Quick note, is that NOAA believe that GFS operational has been too progressive with the last one or two runs.. This means a better chance for retrogression of the high pressure than what GFS operational has shown on the last two runs.
12Z GFS Run - Christmas Eve 2008.
First update I would like to post is that the ensemble mean or average 850hPA temp is now almost at the -5 line beginning at the T+252 - T+264 timeframe on this run. This corresponds to the 4th of January. Therefore, yet again on this run, a clear trend for a considerable drop off in temps between the 3rd and 5th of January. Ensembles still not fully out, but quite encouraging from what I have seen so far.....
Ensembles now fully out and its very good news from what I can see. The ensemble 850hPA temp mean is now dropping below the -5 line for a period on this run. GFS operational was also a major mild outlier for this run - this meaning that the latest 12Z GFS operational run is not reflective of the pattern that the majority of perturbations (ensemble members) are going for.. which is a cold to very cold evolution beginning in the timeframe mentioned above.
Note that on this run 8 ensemble members (perturbations) cut the -10 850hPA temperature line. IMO, this is even significant in itself. Of course this is still in FI, but that dip in temperatures is gradually making its way towards the more reliable... It will be a long time yet before we know exactly what's going to happen, but I am delighted with the 12Z set of ensembles.
Very very encouraging set of ensembles.
Note: After going through all of the ensembles, the colder evolution seems to come from either an easterly flow or a northeasterly flow, one to watch in my IMO. Of course this is still all in FI, and subejct to change.
SA.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Bye bye folks :mad:
I never asked you to leave, no one did. Your input is very much appreciated as is everyone's on here, its just you don't need to be so nasty with your posts when referring to me. 0 -
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