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Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009
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martron-despite my rather vociferous debate with SA here...yes I think that it's a good probability that we will see more snow in january 09 than we have in any january for the last decade.
It's not cast in stone but we should have lots of opportunities for it to happen in between milder periods in the coming while.
Keep reading as you are likely to get a hint here before the telly
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I have found my self glued to this thread over the past week. I know it can all fall apart at the last hurdle and we could end up with mild muck but its still exciting to speculate. Its enjoyable to see the blue shades approaching Ireland especially with the boredom of the damp greyness we have had over the past couple of the days.
I believe there is something coming and its a fooking long time coming too!
Keep up the interesting posts SA.
Bring on the big freeze.
Post of the day Damo. Yep, the rubbish that we have put up with over the last couple of weeks, and indeed all year, is hopefully coming to an end. Even today, while still cloudy, there was a slight drying in the air, and how much more so when the blessed easterly arrives. .
SA has made this thread what it is and despite near constant remarks and cut downs he stuck to his guns and has made a good call with regards the imminent easterly as far back as 9 days ago even when models backed away a little. Fair play SA, lets hope your optimism continues in the rocky model watching days ahead, and sure if they don't play out the way we would want them too, what the hell, its the taking part that counts, not the result. 
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Right guys, I've been very very busy in the run up to Christmas and I'll be on here in full RAMP mode as soon as the turkey is in the oven!
The persistance of all major models in setting us up for a blast from the east is extraordinary. The chart that has caught my eye is the one posted by SA in #272. Look at how much in to the deep south of Europe the cold gets... central Italy.
I was cautious about the shape of the High Pressure pulling in more of a SE wind than a direct E blast, however, with the cold going that far south [over land all the while] and returning up to us via France is an excellent prospect.
The charts tonight I feel can be considered as nailled on. Its gonna get cold and it's gonna get snowy. I feel it in me waters! Pity this was not progged for 25/12/2008, ah well beggars can't be choosey I guess. :P0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Yes lads...
The FI charts for the 7th of january from this run would produce so much lake effect Irish sea snow,it would reach clare almost.
Pity it's deep FI.
On a positive note-I hear yez,I don't think there has been a comparative example of model output throwing up so much cold in varying degree's all over the place.
Lets hope this pans out as good as some of them.
Its christmas..we can dream.
Whats happening in the reliable time frame lends itself to an evolution that i have never witnessed.
Jump on the cold train choo choo....;)
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The 18Z GFS Ensembles 23/12/2008
A most encouraging set of ensembles once again. Although its FI, the trend continues for a marked drop in upper 850hPA temps from around the 3rd - 5th of January, with the mean remaining flat towards the -5 line out until the end of the run. More encouraging still is that GFS operational is not a complete outlier for this run at all, meaning that the very potently cold evolution shown on the 18Z run had support from several other ensemble members. Furthermore, the GFS control run is also in good agreement with the operational run for the wintry outbreak.
Very encouraging trends it must be said, with many ensemble members cutting the -5hPA temp line and a few approaching (even breaking) the -10hPA temp line. Nothing certain as of yet, but the overall trend is very encouraging.
Regards,
SA.
Most encouraging IMO.0 -
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Just one final note is that although we have had a day of excellent outputs from GFS operational, it is possible that the operational run may be milder or somewhat different on runs tomorrow as it was during the past weekend, however several ensemble members still trended towards the very cold outlook at the weekend. It could equally continue the cold theme. So on tomorrow's outputs I think we need to be looking for the mean 850 temps & possibly 2 metre temps and the number of ensemble members that trend towards the colder evolution. ECM will once again be very important to see if it is similar to tonight's run. I would like to see ECM showing firmer retrogresison of the high tomorrow, but hey, lets see what tomorrow brings.
I think a nice Xmas present for all would be the firming up of the retrogression pattern and a clear continued trend towards the colder outbreak that's being shown at the moment.
Best Regards and Merry Xmas to all.
Snowaddict. 0 -
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I wouldnt look at the 00z unless you like a cloudy meandering high for the next week with a poor easterly followed by a poor northwesterly...and then theres FI which by the way is always 2 weeks away..
Compared to last night for instance a northerly is now nearer the 10th of january and it wont be much use to Kilkenny by the way,it being on the wrong side of the country
Ah maybe the 06Z shortly...
I prefer the ECM anyway-more reliable.
A bit colder into the new year according to met Éireann on the radio this morning.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »I wouldnt look at the 00z unless you like a cloudy meandering high for the next week with a poor easterly followed by a poor northwesterly...and then theres FI which by the way is always 2 weeks away..
Compared to last night for instance a northerly is now nearer the 10th of january and it wont be much use to Kilkenny by the way,it being on the wrong side of the country
Ah maybe the 06Z shortly...
I prefer the ECM anyway-more reliable.
A bit colder into the new year according to met Éireann on the radio this morning.
Well I'm very happy with the 0Z ensembles.
A clear continued sharp cooling trend. GFS operational could easily be one of the more milder charts on any run. Several of the 00Z ensembles approach upper temps of -12 and -13 over Ireland. Its another very good run.
Excellent output from ECMWF this morning. Its beginning to now firm up clearly on the retrogression.
We are now, I believe, entering a two phase cold spell. The first half will almost certainly be rather chilly with night frosts and fairly quiet weather. Now I know that many of the very wintry charts are still in FI, but with retrogression of the high to the northwest now 60-70% certain to take place, I would now put 45% on the possibility of wintriness for some at least into the new year. This ECMWF chart is from T+240. Now, it does contain wintriness. Temps would be very cold at this point, with another easterly feed, but much colder than the one for this weekend.
Note also now that both the NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation and the AO - Artic Oscillation are both forecast to go deeply negative as we head into January. This drop is timed perfecly, as it encourages retrgoression of the high towards Greenland.
All in all, very positive overnight outputs towards an increasingly possible wintry outbreak into the new year, with all current signs still pointing to this beginning around the 3 - 5 of January.
SA.
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