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Model Outooks: Winter 2008/2009
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These ensembles are actually better than what I thought they would be.
Yet again for 12th GFS run, there is a clear drop in the upper 850hPA temperatures over Ireland during the period from the 3rd to the 5th of January.
Yet again, many ensembles approach and break the -10 line, and GFS control is a very impressive run again. There are also a number of milder solutions in there, but if these ensembles are to be believed, the colder outbreak is still very much there.
Its main onset is now approximately 185 hours out, if several of the ensembles are to be believed.
Overall, not a bad set of ensembles at all.
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Good morning all.
Well overnight there has been a major shift in both the GFS operational and ECM operational outputs, back towards a more wintry outbreak type scenario, beginning between the 3rd and 5th of January.
However, these are just two runs and it must be noted that some of the GFS ensembles have now backed away from the cold spell.
Either way, this does raise spirits a bit, but given that the main onset of this cold is still approximately 180 or so hours out from now, nothing is set in stone or certain. I would really like to get upbeat about it at this time, but before we can be fairly certain, we must see consistent operational outputs trending this way, along with cross model and ensemble agreement.
GFS 00Z T+216
GFS 00Z T+300
ECMWF T+216
GFS 00Z Ensembles - Dublin, Ireland.
All in all quite good outputs towards a possible wintry outbreak beginning between the 3rd and 5th of January.
However, nothing is certain yet, so these charts should still be treated with great caution.
Regards to all,
SA.
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ECM outputs a retro of this Hp over us that will sink into Europe and moves back up towards GL(retro). This is in FI and continually put on the back burner.
GFS has -10 to -15C 850mb temps about 10miles off the Norfolk coast been pushed into Holland and the rest of Europe while 0C air here but its still rolling out.
Looks like the HP is now collapsing over Ireland and allowing an Atlantic to approach0 -
ECM outputs a retro of this Hp over us that will sink into Europe and moves back up towards GL(retro). This is in FI and continually put on the back burner.
GFS has -10 to -15C 850mb temps about 10miles off the Norfolk coast been pushed into Holland and the rest of Europe while 0C air here but its still rolling out.
Looks like the HP is now collapsing over Ireland and allowing an Atlantic to approach
Hey Snowbie. Yep it appears to be like that, but as the run goes on into FI, the atlantic never really gets going. Eventually we see lower heights in the Med and the transferring of the bitterly cold air towards Ireland. However, we have seen this modelled so many times now, it would be hard to believe it to be honest. The chart below is for deep FI, T+324 and definately has to be taken with a pinch of salt. But I think the model outputs are slightly better this morning.
It could still be a case of so close and yet so far for Ireland though. It would be a real shame not to tap into that potently cold air a few hundred miles away.
T+324
T+384
Of course these are all in FI lack really any credibility.
However, I think the real test will be around next Friday / Saturday as to whether the atlantic breaks back in or not. This could decide the eventual outcome.
SA.0 -
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I think its safe to call this a cautiously cold outlook.
UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jan 2009 to Saturday 10 Jan 2009:
The weather in the new year will continue in much the same fashion that 2008 ended on. That is to say that high pressure looks like bring the dominant feature though the period. The central position of the high pressure looks like edging a little further west with time, perhaps allowing a few spells of rain, sleet or snow to affect northern and eastern areas later in the period. On the whole though, most places will de dry with variable amounts of cloud; and where clear spells occur, there will be sunshine by day, and frost and fog by night. Any frost and fog that forms may be slow to clear in the weak January sunshine. Temperatures are likely to be below average, with some hard frosts likely.
Updated: 1037 on Sat 27 Dec 20080 -
Just saw that last chart in FI there SA and is similar to the 1982 snow event in the east and is just one day out. But of course a raging SW could easily occur been the outputs lately from all model runs. Horribly inconsistent.
Ensembles should be out soon
It sure is very inconsistent. Even after the past few days, we really know nothing more about what is going to happen. Lets hope we see an improvement in those ensembles. The Uk Met update doesn't sound too bad. 0 -
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One thing i've noticed, as in other spells before as well, is that the potnetial cold on the ensembles keeps getting pushed further and further back..the original dip in the members was progged for today, then it was the 1st Jan then the 3rd and now the 5th, I see the mean is now above -5C as well. Not over yet but some upergrades needed me thinks
Yep, your completely right there. Only thing is that this 3rd - 5th sharp drop has survived so far and I've just taken a look on meteociel, and its there again. Lets hope it makes it to the more reliable. 0 -
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Well if these ensembles are anything to go by, things are certainly going to get cold, with the sharp cooling drop again in evidence from the 3rd to the 5th of January. The ensemble mean is below -5 for 850hPA temps from the 5th of January and remains below -5 right out until the end of the run.
Indeed, many ensembles break the -10 line, with several approaching -12 and -13. Of course these are in FI, but the sharp drop between the 3rd and the 5th of January is fast approaching the slightly more reliable timeframe. Furthermore, the GFS winter wonderland for the last 60 hours of the 06Z run had substantial support from other ensemble members.
This is again only one run, but if things continue to trend this way as we head into the more reliable, you would have to think that something is brewing in terms of cold.
What do others make of the 06Z ensembles, because the amount of cold runs in there is significant IMO.
Overnight and into this morning, there has been a major shift in the model outputs towards significant cold.
The main thrust of this cold is still approximately 175 - 180 hours out from now.
However, as I said above, if those ensembles continue to trend as cold and continue to move towards and into the more reliable timeframe, it may potentially signal a wintry outbreak, possibly beginning between the 3rd and the 5th of January.
However nothing is still certain at this point.
Regards,
SA.
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Hi guys,
Distressing news from CNN Weather...it looks like this whole period of cold weather is now collapsing
CNN predicts highs of 9oC to 11oC for Dublin from New Years Eve right through to the 5th Jan 2009...
Looks like we are in for more of the usual mild muck
Ah well it was nice to get up this morning and see outside covered in frost with a temp of -2oC....long live the frost...the only wintry type of weather we can now rely on in Ireland!
Snow Fan
lol why are you relying on cnn weather ,its an american based company ,they havnt a clue about us over here ,stick to irish or uk websites, :pac: 0 -
Just had a look at the GFS.
Some really classical charts in FI. The t+372 is amazing. Deep easterly winds with max temps in mid Germany of -15c.
Here's the temps for that night:
Note the -1 in the middle of the English Channel.
They are the kind of charts we need to be getting in the reliable timeframe for a decent shot of widespread snow here.
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Just to refer to this post as I think many on here will find it interesting:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=51837&view=findpost&p=1402667
It refers to the potential colder outbreak into the new year as well as the period of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and negative Artic Oscillation which we are currently about to enter.
IMO, the ensembles are one of the key elements to watch over the next few days.
Regards to all,
SA. 0 -
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IMO the very fact we are looking models for a cold snap this early is good February is usually when we start looking for snow in the charts
Don't know about that. January is traditionally coldest in terms of air temps. Might be colder later in terms of sea temps alright. Remember sun is higher in the sky now already
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I know it's FI and all that jazz, but the latest ECM run is a peach, and the 240hrs 850's chart really stands out:
However, I am concerned that the high progged at 144, as per the following chart:
may not be strong enough to prevent the lows in the near Atlantic to move NE's, thus allowing a more traditional SW flow over Ireland as there does seem to be an opening for them to do so.
However, that is just me being pessimistic again. I just wish those beautiful charts in the far reaches of the latest ECMWF run would come a little closer. 0 -
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I think Danno is right in what he is saying; lets hold off until tomorrow for an update
However is anyone starting to notice a pattern here or is it just me?
1. Ouputs are published for say 12 days ahead which show a pool of very cold air over Ireland
2. Everyone gets excited and tells friends and family
3. New ouputs are published which play down the cold air and show us returning to the usual mild muck
4. You tell friends and family you might have been wrong
5. Updated outputs show a pool of very cold air over Ireland - again some 10 days in the future
6. You decide maybe to hold off this time and not tell friends and family!!
7. New outputs show a milder weather pattern....
And on it goes!!
Hey Snowfan. The one thing about this potential upcoming cold spell is that if the GFS ensemble outputs over the last 4 days are correct, including today's 12Z one's, then a sharp drop in temps will occur between the 3rd and the 5th of January, which is now 174 hours out, so starting to enter the more reliable timeframe.
However, you're very right with the cautious approach, as this could go wrong at any point right up to T+72.
SA. 0
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This discussion has been closed.
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