Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

No BBC one country file forecast today so we are stuck with just the farming forecast on RTÉ and from this mornings radio broadcast I could write that myself,it shouldn't be that interesting given current glasnevin thinking.
You might probably need to start ironing your t-shirts if Gerry Murphy is presenting it...

Some of the BBC local output though is already mentioning sleet and snow possibilities from thursday onwards over there-they are obviously usually in a better firing line in marginal set ups though

One thing I will say to temporarally perk ye up though is this output is very unconfident.
It doesnt look as though it's going to play ball for us in the far west of Europe though.

Snowbie

Just had to check the 850's after scouring the models for any prospects of white fluffy stuff and -4c temps hit us or should i say only graze us for a couple of hours while -8 just noses into Scotland. GFS 0z

If ECM keeps with the 12z for 850 temps like yesterday,we might still get a shot at this.
NB: Our Met uses the ECM or compiles the majority of forecasting from it.

Supercell

This mornings output sucks.
Game Over.
Time to start looking for the next cool spell unless this one gets a suprise upgrade, however it nearly always gets less likely closer to the time than more likely.

arctictree

Just had a look at this mornings GFS. Well at least the LP is still there for Thursday. So I think the common consensus is that the current charts would not be good enough for a snow event. We still have time for the charts to change, so it will be interesting to see how much this down/up grades over the next 48hrs.

A

Kippure

arctictree wrote: »

Just had a look at this mornings GFS. Well at least the LP is still there for Thursday. So I think the common consensus is that the current charts would not be good enough for a snow event. We still have time for the charts to change, so it will be interesting to see how much this down/up grades over the next 48hrs.

A

Your nice and high up. You,ll get snow. So will i?

Mothman

Kippure wrote: »

Your nice and high up. You,ll get snow. So will i?

Happens every winter. Settled snow up in Roundwood, struggling to get sleet down here

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

Your nice and high up. You,ll get snow. So will i?

maybe if you are above 2000ft-are you ? That would be current glasnevin thinking I'd imagine and they having a lot more data to look at than us ,whilst still uncertain , they can make a much more informed guess than us lot and they have.

ninebeanrows

Very disappointing runs this morning, really shows that we should have been more grateful for the runs we had been shown over the previous days.

Still lots of time for ups and downs, what looks certain is the cold spell won't last more than 3 days.

What is not certain however is the track of the low pressure expected to move into France, what also is not certain is the extent of the Siberian High, at present the position where pressure is expected to reach 1060mb is currently 990mb.

With such a Huge Block, i fully expect the cool/cold spell to last longer than projected by the models.

Thursday looks like it will be the day where the snow could be falling, even with current projections Thursday could be an interesting and snowy day, as front push up from the southwest.

What we want to see is the Siberian High pushing around 200 miles further west than expected and for the low to undercut the High more than it is currently doing, very minor adjustments would make this cold spell very potent and extent it in length.

ninebeanrows

The excitement!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=4238

Weathercheck

To be fair to your analysis WC,you are right in thinking that what we will see next week is not what we see in the +120 version of the last tree runs of all models.
Anything like the things you mention *could* happen.
The balance of probability is stacked against them but probability is only a guess based on the usual really.
It's usually a good guess but the guess work gets tougher with more unusual synoptics.
What we are see'ing is certainly a case of unusual synoptics alright.

I remain doubtfull though as from the start I never liked the fact that what has been programmed at its very best (a few days ago) always contained too mediterranean and portugese a source for air mixing not to occur.

Air mixing is a very bad ingredient if you want a decent cold spell.
You need to be able to follow the isobars to the source of the real cold .
The real cold is what the siberian/scandi high is advecting or supposed to be advecting in and thats being diverted up towards the Faroes and no where near western Europe.

That never happened in any of the classic 80's SH snowy set ups as you always had an unclosed or undiverted cold feed running for 4 or 5 days ...at which point everything was suitably freezing to make for the snow fest.
This is sadly lacking in the current synoptics as our SH is really a urals high and isn't modeled to be positioned in the place that we want it to be.

In summary - our programmed air source has too much French in it,too much med and it will likely kill most if not all the snow potential with that mixing and the probably higher dew points that a French/Portugese/med air source brings.

It could pan out that way but the very model work that you cant get excited without..doesnt want to paint a better picture at the moment.
It may do,who knows and it may do aswell in a few weeks either.
We'll see.

Weathercheck wrote: »

The excitement!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=4238

Out of date prognosis based on old runs to be honest probably.

LoL
Thank you Eveyln.
You are a beaut.
That was encouraging.

You could tell behind her language that they are not actually sure whether the atlantic will break through!

Now they know more than us so despite what we are see'ing model wise I find that cheery.
All to play for,the cat is certainly among the pidgeons.

Kippure

Raw wind Gale force, snow flurries on the east coast........ In other words we dont know....

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

LoL
Thank you Eveyln.
You are a beaut.
That was encouraging.

You could tell behind her language that they are not actually sure whether the atlantic will break through!

Now they know more than us so despite what we are see'ing model wise I find that cheery.
All to play for,the cat is certainly among the pidgeons.

I think it was just her disappointment! She mentions the cold and then says, the models say we will have a return to atlantic weather, definate uncertainty in her tone.

And a few snow flurries to boot!

Villain

What did Eveyln say?

It will be on RTE's website later.
But the first encouraging thing she said was that the front crossing on New yrs day was giving them trouble forecast wise as it looked like it was pushing back westwards ie an indication of a strengthening East flow.
Her chart then included an image of Europe with moscow at -9 and that this would be influencing us.

Her last chart showed a cold front approaching the NE with snow flurries into the East.
Like WC said she displayed a good deal of uncertainty as to whether the atlantic was going to beat this back.

One caveat-Eveyln is a ramper

But I love her.
Marry me Eveyln

Villain

Just stuff raises spirits a little, anyone in front of a tv with BBC1 on let us know what they say.

Wow,that BBC forecast was even more bullish.
They're coming out with it now.
No shortage of snow on that map in Ireland

They were very particular to mention low level cold air flooding in from Europe.
They ignored the 850's.

ninebeanrows

Thus the plot thickens, there was a countryfile forecast in there and all.

No mention of and end to the cold spell.

And snow shown here on Wednesday evening and Thursday

Kippure

They only went as far as friday! So they dont know either...

Villain

Ohh and I thought this had turned into a damp squid, I might have go to work in Wicklow through Roundwood Thursday morning just for the drive like!

Heres some screen grabs of the BBC forecast.

Enjoy!

Villain

So snow showers are possible but we will need to make a climb to see decent stuff, unless this upgrades? Is that a fair accessment?

Trogdor

Deleted User wrote: »

LoL
Thank you Eveyln.
You are a beaut.
That was encouraging.

You could tell behind her language that they are not actually sure whether the atlantic will break through!

Now they know more than us so despite what we are see'ing model wise I find that cheery.
All to play for,the cat is certainly among the pidgeons.

Missed the BBC one but managed to catch Evelyn, she seemed to emphasize that on the current model the Atlantic breaks through . Still some hope it seems:)

Villain

Oh and I hate going off topic but I'm going to splash the cash this week on a weather station.

Anyone give me a quick opinion on:

Ok so I have narrowed down my choice to either http://www.ukweathershop.co.uk/acata..._WMR928NX.html or http://www.ukweathershop.co.uk/acata...ES_WS2300.html

There is a big difference in price, I don't mind paying the higher if its worth the difference, I want to put the data on my web-site.

ninebeanrows

What we can take from the forecasts is that, the doom and gloom on here is an over reaction.

The outlooks is still very uncertain and there is a good liklyhood we will see a few flurries of snow next week, at least.

In all honestly i would probably be happy with that, did i see any snow last year? I forget but i don't think i did.

It is going to be an interesting week, It's Sunday today and there is potential for snow from Wednesday night, it isn't a century away or anything it's very much in the very near future.

Yeah trogdor though sometimes forecasters put human input in and thats what you can read between the lines in that phrase.
She said that because theres uncertainty.
I like uncertainty because it meand simply put that the atlantic coming in is not a dead cert.

I found the BBC graphics very encouraging as they have snow in the sea,the celtic,the irish and the north channell indicating that the surface feed may be enough to do the business.

I don't think that thye would have ran with this if they didnt think it was a highish probability.
I do also think that Glasnevin are in regular contact with Bracknell and other Euro met services regarding all of this.

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Oh and I hate going off topic but I'm going to splash the cash this week on a weather station.

Anyone give me a quick opinion on:

Can't seen sorry, linkies broken!

Villain

http://www.ukweathershop.co.uk/acatalog/info_2_OS_WMR928NX.html or http://www.ukweathershop.co.uk/acatalog/info_2_ES_WS2300.html

Thanks WC

maquiladora

Met -
"Winds will become fresh to strong, easterly for Thursday and it will feel very cold as a result. A little drizzle or light rain will occur in places, and temperatures may be low enough to allow a few snow flurries also."



Baby steps...

ninebeanrows

Sorry for the dlay, the WS2300 is a very basic weather station but it does the biz, i had it, the anemometer is fairly useless.

I would go for the Oregon if ya had the spons for it, it will last longer and you will get more accurate readings.

There is a good French site that does a wide range of Stations, i am trying to remember the name.

Found her, wider range, better prices, in euros

http://www.baroland.com/