Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

Supercell

Its further west too!! (i'd like it further west though)

This run has the cold further west quicker so far.
See the 850's corresponding with wc's chart.

ninebeanrows

At 120hrs, and i have that feeling that things simply can not get any better, will it all end in tears, or is the beast finally going to grace our shores?

Supercell

It looks very very close to a classic, it also could turn out to be close but no cigar, lets hope it continues the westerly trend.
We could have a proper 80's or early 90's cold snap on the way!!

Same problems appearing in my opinion in terms of the VERY fi section thursday onwards cutting off the cold tap with a southerly source meaning after about 3 days,you'd have a rapid thaw.
Same caveat-it may not pan out exactly like that (even if it's going to happen at all).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

lucernarian

This latest run is confirming what I expect. It's much drier for Ireland so far with the HP more aggressively west. Though I should know better, it is only one more run in my favour with many more to go!:D

Addition: I think that the final outcome will have the HP slightly further west still, though a cold dryish spell is not everyone's cup of tea. I think the wind direction will be a bit more easterly then currently progged.

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

Same problems appearing in my opinion in terms of the VERY fi section thursday onwards cutting off the cold tap with a southerly source meaning after about 3 days,you'd have a rapid thaw.
Same caveat-it may not pan out exactly like that (even if it's going to happen at all).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

With the Sib high in place, there may be a day thaw but it'll be back... This could turn out to be a classic.

Now remember to try and sleep tonight!:D

Scubadevils

I just pray number 1 it happens, number 2 it happens before the 5th of Jan as I fly off for 5 days to the States. Normally that would mean but with this on the cards I really feel

For those of ye with good eyesight

Whats the thickness level in the East on this chart

Supercell

Between 524 and 528 I think, it's a continental source so dam's aren't so relevant.

Dew points and wind speeds will be more relevant as this unfolds I think.

lucernarian

I agree with Longfield. And as I mentioned earlier, wind speeds and dew points will be in our favour I suspect. That doesn't mean widespread snow however. There has to be organised precipitation to get anything worth talking about.

Oh you could get a good cover from Irish sea shower development.
Some places getting a lot and some next to none.

darkman2

Longfield wrote: »

Between 524 and 528 I think, it's a continental source so dam's aren't so relevant.

Dew points and wind speeds will be more relevant as this unfolds I think.

I think the dew points should not be a problem with the air coming off the continent. I would like slightly lower 850's to nail the snow potential and also some precipitation which is lacking for Ireland on this run.

Latest fax chart at 120hrs shows the 528 DAM line approaching from Britian (the snow line basically). So you can all thankfully ignore the UKMO model for now as they have gone with the ECM evolution.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF

Supercell

The 528 dam on a 850 chart has little baring on the snowline in a continental feed.

Trogdor

:DBroadband has been a bit dogdy here today but have been watching...and hoping. The models certainly seem very keen to knock this high away as soon as the continental feed becomes established here. I know it's FI but the early downfall of the high has been one of the consistant details on the models. Whether it gets pushed away or hangs around, lets hope we get some snow first:D.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

The 528 dam on a 850 chart has little baring on the snowline in a continental feed.

It's an added ingredient I'd like to have on board though longfield as it brings presents in the form of colder surface air.I'm not sure why it does but it does.

darkman2

So your not turning your computer screen on its side looking at the other one

Here it is http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif



Longfield - the 528DAM line is not always nessacary but it is important and like Briar Id much rather have it overhead.

Danno

Sorry, but I feel that it will be only a transient snow event as the atlantic will push this back east. We need lower pressure over the Med. Also, look at the jet forecast! A flaming arrow on Galway...

Snowbie

When i opened the forum i seen this thread at 4 pages and alas,these charts are as good as my most of my hands in poker tonight.

Its a case of watching the charts from behind a cushion for the next couple of days.
Good viewing but not reliable just yet, but promising.

maquiladora

We can dream, can't we? .....

darkman2

00z is the same pretty much as the 18z but because 850 temps dont go low enough we see temps of 5 or 6C on the Irish sea - not good for us on the coast and Dublin.

Yes.
Glasnevin on the outlook part of theit 755am radio broadcast this morning went for mild tight through to next weekend with one colder day.

Remember they have the ecm ensembles and confidence must be low.
I'm not going to bother commenting on the model output now untill tuesday as the uncertainty is too high unless there are big changes.

arctictree

Charts are still looking good for Thur/Fri. We need them to stay like that for the next couple of days and then we are in business. Midnight on Thursday looks particularly nasty:

Problem is though artictree you are posting the GFS.
We are ramping on foot of mainly the GFS as it has the sexiest charts in the last few days.
It's been rather unreliable in the last few weeks in terms of the way it progresses things.

Thats going on the scientific discussion from the NWS.
They have been using mainly a combination of the UKMO and the ECMWF models to compile the weather charts for the U.S because they don't trust the GFS modeling at the moment for whatever reason.
They say it's been verifying badly compared to the other big two.

Read into that what you will but as the output is based on the same global information and it's the exact same programme, that means I wouldnt be banking on GFS to verify well over here either.

Anyhow-common sense is making me back off from commenting on the models untill early next week unless I see something really encouraging.
I'll watch country file and the farming forecast too but I'm tending to think that even these can't give clarity as the models do always struggle with Scandi blocks.

Supercell

Thursday looks interesting, plenty of wet heavy snow for myself and Arctictree possible and cold rain by the coast, could end up like last winters cold spell.
I'd take that quite happily, but sadly for most others, the high remains to far east and is going to be a non event.

arctictree

What is interesting now is what is happening post Thursday/Friday. Still a long way off but GFS is showing HP being established close to us. This will lead to long frosty nights and also could lead to any snow staying around for a while. Could be a very different event than last years snow which was an Atlantic front hitting cold air and eventually winning out...

A

Supercell

Yep, very true. There was stuff lying here even last year for about 4 days in the shade and more in the fields by the hedges where it had piled up.

Eircom are due to install broadband in the next two weeks here, it would be pretty cool to stream the webcam if its up and running by then (and of course flood the place with snow pics!).

Snowbie

FI will always be FI. Time for futher downgrades i feel but could also swing back the other way for proper snow and not sleet or cold rain.

I dont see any sustained cold or 80s style chill in this source.Too many chinks and med air in the mix.This is what i feared.The GFS arctictree posted is a strong east wind but sourced in the med or has a med influence to it.

Im losing hope with this,but then again wishing something from FI is a big no no with me.
Keep watching the ECM,this model run handles the SH better than most and keep the eyes on countryfile and our own weather forecast tomorrow.

I just would not take into account any radio forecast or model run for this far out as it still awhile to go and a lot of uncertainty.
Back to watching,nothing is set in stone yet.

lucernarian

I still remain optimistic. The wind speeds will count in our favour when it comes to lamppost watching time. It was never going to be bitterly cold as the continent isn't iced over but it should be cool enough for snow here.

Mothman

Snowbie wrote: »

I dont see any sustained cold or 80s style chill in this source.Too many chinks and med air in the mix.This is what i feared.The GFS arctictree posted is a strong east wind but sourced in the med or has a med influence to it.

What he says...