Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

maquiladora

Netweather snow risk charts for Ireland look....astonishing...

Kippure

Might organise snow hunt 3? for next sunday to kippure.

Ive never been so over joyed at such charts.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

Netweather snow risk charts for Ireland look....astonishing...

Are they publically viewable anywhere ie do you have a link?

I know the t144 GFS screamed snow to me.
I'll tell you why.

That kind of flow over a warm Irish sea promotes mini cyclogenesis or the creation of shallow low pressure areas within the flow.
I remember one in 85 that developed off Wexford and moved northwards.

Lets just say Dublin bus stopped services after 6pm on account of the snow it gave as it moved by

Kippure wrote: »

Might organise snow hunt 3? for next sunday to kippure.

Ive never been so over joyed at such charts.

You might actually have difficulty getting there if this evenings GFS came off

(Am I ramping?)

maquiladora

Deleted User wrote: »

Are they publically viewable anywhere ie do you have a link?

I've edited my post with screenshot. Thats some coverage for the island!

First chink in the armour

The 144 UKMO isn't fantastic...
Well it is if you like wet but not cold enough north westerlies

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ukmo/ukmo_pslv_144_12.gif?3ce5dd7545302e008a57f8a82275493f

Kippure

Im sticking with the ecm,it has held its head high, the gfs has really just come on board. As for the lesser models, the jma and nogaps show prospects.

Lets give it 3 days on all the models. Ill be glued to the farming forecast this sunday.

It depends on who is doing it.
Remember the guy who said there will be "snow on high ground at night".
I hate his forecasts.
After that one there were snow showers in Glasnevin the following day.
Some forecasters exude confidence others don't.

The farming forecast and the one on countryfile (BBC1) this sunday will be very difficult to compile as they will be relying on data not to dissimilar to what we are see'ing.
There'll be a lot of if's and maybe's mentioned and "possibly" is another word they may use.

Because truth be told , they probably have an inkling but they actually are far from sure.

Supercell

While the charts tentatively look good, most of this stuff is far out in FI still and such needs to be taken with a heaped teaspoon of salt, I've seen charts like these go T-Up at T+48 never mind T+7 days.

I will do a jig however it they still look like this at T+36 hours!

ninebeanrows

Game on, ECM at T+120hrs

ninebeanrows

ECM comes up trumps.

Pictured is the very reason we roam this forum, the pinnacle of weather experience.

maquiladora

It's good to see ECM and GFS going this way now. Still a while to go. Exciting times ahead!

ninebeanrows

Hellooooooooooooo?

Best chart ever was just published! We need some ramping:D

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hellooooooooooooo?

Best chart ever was just published! We need some ramping

NO! Please god no!! I DONT need to be dissapointed again........I've been hurt before so many times!

Although...
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Carlow&day=7

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hellooooooooooooo?

Best chart ever was just published! We need some ramping:D

That would probably deliver alright but not for long.
Follow the lines back and the air source is the sahara.
The Proper cold is diverted north over scandinavia ie it doesn't like heading south this time or west.
The shot of cold in that ECM is cut off too quick by southerly mixing.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

Hellooooooooooooo?

Best chart ever was just published! We need some ramping:D

Hmm, I wouldn't say that, check this out - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif and notice the wind direction and source.

If it works out like the "best ever" one you posted above, I'd forecast temps of 3-6°C with sleet and snow showers and snow lying in upland areas above 200m in the east and the UK getting plastered.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

Hmm, I wouldn't say that, check this out - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif and notice the wind direction and source.

If it works out like the "best ever" one you posted above, I'd forecast temps of 3-6°C with sleet and snow showers and snow lying in upland areas above 200m in the east and the UK getting plastered.

I wouldnt then longfield 'cause in jan '87 the UCD lake was frozen over and there was a good 4 inches of snow on it


*edit*

Oh you meant the one you posted is better than the ecm one of tonight?
The jan 87 one is a north easterly(and a better source than tonights ecm!) and contained shortwaves coming in the flow delivering lots of snow.

arctictree

This is my favorite chart of the current sequence:



What a cracker - the best I've seen in a long time. If that was tomorrow, the country would be shutting down. The problem is that it is in FI, and that chart is bound to change substantially...

A

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote: »

Hmm, I wouldn't say that, check this out - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif and notice the wind direction and source.

If it works out like the "best ever" one you posted above, I'd forecast temps of 3-6°C with sleet and snow showers and snow lying in upland areas above 200m in the east and the UK getting plastered.

No way would you see those temps.

The ECM 144hr chart would have 850's below -10c, its meaningless where the isobars originates once its coming over a cold pool.

Obviously in the longer term milder air would be brought into the flow.

The ECM is eager to bring in the Atlantic there after, but if we get the 144hr chart it'll do me for all of winter!

It would bring a frontal heavy snowfall as the small low pressure moves up the country.

Maxima would be around 0c everywhere in that chart Longfield!

Supercell

WC, I admire your enthusiasm, however if the chart I posted (which is pretty much the utter optimal cold chart of the last 30 years or more) delivers midday maxes of -3°C to Dublin, then imho your really really stretching hope for daytime maxes of 0°C with a non arctic high that far further east.

FWIW here's the '87 recordings i scanned in a few years back :-


Note the temps in central europe, we are going to be about +5-10°C of that probably

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

No way would you see those temps.

maxima would be around 0c everywhere in that chart Longfield!

I wouldn't say zero everywhere,I'd say maxima of about 2c for an hour or two in the afternoon if the sun is out and 0 or below in precipitation

Thats on the coast at sea level...Longfield and artic tree would be looking at sub zero maxima in their locations for definite.

It's all a long way away yet though.
No need to get very excited untill about tuesday.Though if every run up to then is consistantly showing a SH like the one above,it would be hard for snow lovers not to remain excited.

Also two more important points.

That exciteable ECM chart would mean your snow would be spoiled after a day or two by a big thaw because inevitably the cold is cut off and the flow is originating in the MED.
BUT does that or will that actually happen?
Theres little point in thinking it will (it's only a might) as the actual evolution that turns up on our doorstep mid week next week might not include a flow from there at that stage at all,it might and from experience it probably will be delayed.

So you might have 5 days of snowfall instead of three

(sorry for the Ramp)

Supercell

Heh, Black Briar, your right. I'm actually pretty optimistic here for myself and Arctictree about the charts if they develop in reality as they are forecast now.

However previous experience leaves me thinking that its only going to be elevated locations away from the coast that see anything more than sleet and wet snow here with these synoptics - the high as progged right now is just too far east.

Nobody, even WC, wants sneachta more than me (well maybe he's close to it!!) and i'd be remit if i didn't post my honest opinions on the charts as they are right now.

Believe me if they look like sea level snow at T+48 ..then Snowbie will be trying to calm me down !!, although as his nickname might suggest..he's rather partial to the sneachta too!!

arctictree

Lads - remember - FI, FI. Great eye candy but could be wiped out in any of the next few runs! I'd say its only on Sunday/Monday that we can start to predict with any certainty.

That said, if those charts did come off, I'd be removing the gutters off my house. (Last years snow just about did for them...)

A

Ach we know not to get too excited as it's FI I hope !
The time for real excitement is when those charts appear at t-48 etc.Though in the meantime with each day giving similar outcomes...you'd have to be interested.
Currently they look like all they will give is a 72hr cold snap at best and I'm thinking that might be marginal as experience has thought me, you need 4 days of the flow from the cold source at a minimum to be in business.

Two points though:
1. The SH has to set up first and orient itself suffeciently well to advect that cold air to us.
2.When it does (or if) it may take longer than models are currently intimating to move the block and end the Easterly as remember the breakdown is even more FI than the start of the SH and consequently even more unreliable
Every extra day is a bonus in terms of getting value from it- so lets see what happens!

lucernarian

I haven't said anything up to this point. I don't want to jinx anything, but I had a little thought that this was going to happen since watching a weather forecast on 23rd December or around Christmas itself. I do remember thinking when I saw this thread on Stephen's day that I wish they took bets for snow on the first week of January.

I've looked on TWO at the various progressions for the famous winters. I remember seeing the chart for the day and saying that it looks rather innocuous, like the charts before either 1987 or 1981, I can't remember which one I mentioned. The poisitoning of the HP was what gave me the idea, and that the flow of isobars on all the charts looked rather meandering.

The forecast then progressed and showed the Azores High forming a bit of a block in the Atlantic as opposed to Scandinavia so I discounted my idea. Now it was only a flickering thought and I paid it no heed but the charts I've seen this evening are uncanny.

So I'm following this with interest to see if my sense of deja vu is anything to go by.

ninebeanrows

Well a nice 18z would go down a treat, but whatever it shows, it will be one of the less important runs in this soap opera.;)

And good to see you around again TBC

Scubadevils

Raise my head now too...looks exciting, I have been lurking as always but many shattered hopes of snow the last few years reading the various forums have left me a lot more cautious!

Fingers crossed

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote: »

Raise my head now too...looks exciting, I have been lurking as always but many shattered hopes of snow the last few years reading the various forums have left me a lot more cautious!

Fingers crossed

Ahhh our annual reunion:D

Where our hopes are dashes, our wounds salted..

Our luck is due to turn, well overdue

lucernarian

Patience and pragmatism are the order of the day for me usually. But I'd sooner go with gut instinct this time and I've saved it for a time when I had an inkling that something cold was on the cards. I'm completely backing the development of the Scandi high and I think wind speeds cometh the hour will be higher than the current run.

The problem is the delicate positioning of the low against the high, which I'm still unsure of calling. I think that a drier outcome is likely but that it will be very cold and fairly cloudy nonetheless.

I'll wait and see as to LPs in the Channel or further westwards.

ninebeanrows

The 18z isnt going to crush our hearts anyway.

Ah i just don't know.

This could actually happen!

ninebeanrows

What is eery, the beast from the east could be just 108 hours away.