Easterly Blast Prospect Thread :

ninebeanrows

I have an inkling that the 12z will be an upgrade.

Hold on to your hats!

rc28

Thank god it wasn't Gerry Murphy doing the forecast or the usual "winter is over" comments would have made up the last 2 pages:D
Evelyn is brilliant though;)

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

I have an inkling that the 12z will be an upgrade.

Hold on to your hats!

Perhaps but the ECM should be good and well we already know what way the UKMO are thinking

MUSEIST

Thank god it wasn't Gerry Murphy doing the forecast or the usual "winter is over" comments would have made up the last 2 pages
Evelyn is brilliant though


I know what you mean about Gerry Murphy but to be fair he is always realistic about cold and snow ie. that we in ireland rarely get it these daysI am hoping the coming week will give us something but I feel its unlikely.:(

rc28

From what I can gather on the UK forums the 12z is a very slight upgrade for cold prospects.

rc28

I'm not good at reading the models but is the tongue of -8c upper air covering the dublin and north leinster(coastal areas) region translate to lower ground temps or is it irrelevant?:
Weather map 30-12-07.png

It's a help as the lower the 850's the more shower activity you might have blown in off the warm irish sea with cold surface air.

Simple explanation: The precip up at height will be frozen.
It's the travelling down through warmer layers and into a warm surface layer that usually turns it to rain.
If you have sub zero air most of the route down and near zero at the surface and below zero dew points-then you have a potent mix for snow!

Though I won't believe it even when I see it if i see it,it is looking that way on this model and probably in the thinking of the various met office professionals

I see the UKMO have the airflow on thursday exactly like what was shown on countryfile sourced from more continental central Europe than France.. and thats into Ireland too in a fast flow.
For the UKMO to have this in their thinking is good very good.
It should mean a colder surface flow and negative dp's.

All good.

I realise they all expect the atlantic back after 36hrs of this but hey lets see.
It probably will but the interim is interesting none the less.

darkman2

The problem is that the undercutting low spilts in the Atlantic - if the whole system went underneath us it would be spectacular. Chances of that happening though are just below 0 id say.

Still with maxes on Thursday of 1 - 3C generally sleet or snow flurries in precip would be likely. Nothing spectacular though.

Snowbie

Missed our weather at 1300 today anyone got a link to it in the RTE website,can never seem to find it.
I did see the beeb weather and i was amazed by it. Also the undercutting cold from the continent was mentioned.
Really interesting this week is going to be for sure.

Snowbie

Ok,just watched the weather aafter the 6 1 news there and in defense of the Met service as they can only go on what the models predict after 3 days,but i dont see anything to excite me from that forecast.

Yes it be cold and raw but snowy,i just dont see it there.
Being it a couple of days off,there is time for the LP out in the atlantic to get that bit closer to us to develop more of a wintry type set up than for it to travel through France.
Still up in the air me thinks.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote: »

Also the undercutting cold from the continent was mentioned.
Really interesting this week is going to be for sure.

Yeah they deffo had their own model to hand when that was produced.
What was new on that I think was the deep eastern feed of that flow and right into Ireland this time too.
Gone was the French connection

Danno

Looked interesting on RTE, but I can't see anything more than a few showers along the E/NE Coast with more persistant rain/sleet over Munster.

We need a few days with a cold easterly blowing like in 1991 and in 1995.

ninebeanrows

So far we have.

A cold Wednesday night with the cold air moving in from the east with temperatures getting into low single figures and the first few flurries in the east likely.

Thursday, easterly winds strengthening temperatures of 1-4c, subzero dewpoints, snow showers in the east with the chance of frontal snow moving in from the southeast.

Friday bitter day, bright in the west with chance of snow snow in the northeast, temperatures around 0-5c, potental for a snowy breakdown from the west late in the day.

arctictree

Good summary WC.

The charts are all showing a breakdown late on Friday. Since that is 5 days away, I am hoping that will change.

So are we all 100% confident now that there will be an easterly on Thursday?

A

darkman2

arctictree wrote: »

Good summary WC.

The charts are all showing a breakdown late on Friday. Since that is 5 days away, I am hoping that will change.

So are we all 100% confident now that there will be an easterly on Thursday?

A

There will be on Thursday. Snow or not it will be a very cold day. ECM has atlantic in for Friday - GFS is more stubborn and trys bring in a Westerly on Saturday.

arctictree

Kippure wrote: »

Your nice and high up. You,ll get snow. So will i?

(Only reading these now - busy day!)

It depends on your exact elevation. I'm at 250M (820ft), slightly higher than roundwood village.

As Mothman says, if there is sleety rain at sea level, then normally we have lying snow here in Roundwood. Sleet here means snow on the mountain tops.

It could all be about the temps on Thursday. Could be similar to last Feb when there was sleet at sea level and we were just at the level for lying snow here. By the end of the day it was sleet settling on the snow which was a few inches at that stage. (See the Weather Pics 2007 thread for photos).



A

Trogdor

Just back in, the 12z certainly seems to be a upgrade if -8C air makes it over us. It's interesting that there is no percip progged for us on Thursday at all, are the models bad at picking up the lake effect snow showers or is there something restricting the activity?
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW
The temps look good on this with a max of 3C and min of 1C during the day, with dewpoints remaining below zero throughout. It'd be pretty annoying with such cold temps and no percip though!
Also, is there any real risk of lying snow on the coast on any models atm, as we have a few days in a holiday home to take up near Kippure, and we were thinking we might go up Wednesday, but if there's a risk of lying snow here I wouldn't want to miss it given that we last had lying snow here in 2000! And then also if there's no percip then going up to Kippure wouldn't be any use anyway.

Villain

If only:

Villain

Oh dear 9 o clock weather on RTE1 and we just lost all hope, giving cold Thursday and Friday but no snow and then Mild Atlantic wins out for the weekend with a return to mild weather.

Looks like FI has lived up to its rep once again!

Supercell

Villain, I think you are confusing blue clolurs with cold.
At the 500 hPa in these parts the colours mean nothing to what conditions are like at sea level.
Case in point - your "if only" chart above would give temps around 10°C and gales probably . Now if you like that, well and good, but its not going to deliver any snow, not even on the mountain tops.

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Oh dear 9 o clock weather on RTE1 and we just lost all hope, giving cold Thursday and Friday but no snow and then Mild Atlantic wins out for the weekend with a return to mild weather.

Looks like FI has lived up to its rep once again!

Nah thinks are looking just fine, she was still using the exact same data as this morning.

ECM this even is even better than this morn. Things looking fine.

Supercell

Can people please stop posting chart images all over the place. If you want to show a chart, please link to it, there's no need to image link it.

If the chart is exceptional - circa '47, 63', 82' etc etc,fair enough, if its a run of the mill, weather as usual..please don't image it!

Villain

Well its better than the what the other models are showing at present, but my ability to read the models is at best low.

18z coming out shortly but after the 9 o clock weather I don't think we havemuch hope of snow or even a prolonged cold spell.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

Nah thinks are looking just fine, she was still using the exact same data as this morning.

ECM this even is even better than this morn. Things looking fine.

I dunno WC, the operational is out on a massive limb compared to the rest.

Most runs are going for mild med/african air making it here, that honestly seems like the most likely outcome to me too right now.

Supercell

Villain wrote: »

Well its better than the what the other models are showing at present, but my ability to read the models is at best low.

Hi Villain, I just re-read my post before yours and I really came across like a jerk.
Everyone has to start learning sometime and its not easy if people jump down your throat like I did.

Please accept my humble apologies and I'll just focus on getting mad at the (lack of snow) charts instead!

New posters here are always hugely welcome !

Villain

No hassle, 18z out to 108 not sure what to make of it, seems the cold air is pushed back north quicker??

arctictree

I dont think the 18z is looking good. The breakdown is looking more complex though...

arctictree

Breakdown is just a tad later but it comes.

Wear a t-shirt

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.png

arctictree wrote: »

I dont think the 18z is looking good. The breakdown is looking more complex though...

Your precipitation on thursday and friday will be snow up at 820ft,I have no doubt.
It's just not certain how much.
With pressure down to 1000mb,there could be a lot actually ,the GFS was never very good at progging irish sea precip in a cold easterly.

Villain

Saturday looks mild very mild! ah well lets hope its just a brief break before the cold returns.