Any sign of good weather?

rc28

The weather really is terrible, today a 182year old bridge was destroyed by a raging flash torrent after a 3hour downpour in connemara:
http://rte.ie/news/2007/0718/connemara.html

Big Tone

Reports from the US suggest the jet stream in unusually strong for this time of year and had brought severe downpours and thunderstrorms (sound familiar?!?!) to the North-east Atlantic seaboard.

http://www.1010wins.com/pages/693643.php?contentType=4&contentId=699010

Marcus.Aurelius

Lads, seriously, when are we going to see some decent weather?

mike65

Nope and its going to get bad again from tomorrow evening, monday looks like a washout for south and eastern parts esp.

The very best we can hope for is a general settling down in mid-late August with a good Sept I reckon.

Mike.

Supercell

Its good right now, go for a drive..nature is exploding.

This is a brilliant summer so far.

Snowbie

Longfield wrote:

Its good right now, go for a drive..nature is exploding.

This is a brilliant summer so far.

In a strange funny perculiar kinda way id agree with you.My garden has started to bloom from the end of January.In the non showery month of april when we had all that sun and warmth it exploded into life.With what heat and the rain of late its just amazing to see my flower beds overgrown and needed to be trimmed back already,I tend do this in October.But I am getting concerned about water logging.With the hard table so low,the amount of standing water on fields is unbelievable for July,totally saturated.

In terms of contrast/extremes its amazing,the seasons that is and with this time last year.Thunderstorms potential most days for the last 6 weeks,we had a wind event,floods in some parts,funnel clouds(not uncommon for Ireland but frequent this year) and they LRF this summer back in Febuary as one of the warmest summers and years on record,did they forget to say dullest wettest on record too and where is the warmth.LRFs:rolleyes:

Me i like extremes of weather in every shape and form(also had the misfortunes of extremes before myself)it is why weather is the single but yet most important part of every day life and is unfortunately yet to be understood by most.

BostonB

Snowbie wrote:

In a strange funny perculiar kinda way id agree with you.My garden has started to bloom from the end of January.In the non showery month of april when we had all that sun and warmth it exploded into life.With what heat and the rain of late its just amazing to see my flower beds overgrown and needed to be trimmed back already,I tend do this in October.But I am getting concerned about water logging.With the hard table so low,the amount of standing water on fields is unbelievable for July,totally saturated....

Same here. I'll need a combine harvester to cut my grass soon.

ninebeanrows

It is really beginning to get on my nerves now!

Constant gloom and rain, it is okay when there is the possibility of thunderstorms and big puffy white clouds.

But the last couple of days have been awful, can't even sit out the back or do anything without getting wet.

Today was supposed to be a good day but its just disgusting, lets hope it clears up;)

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

This is a brilliant summer so far.

Not for the farmer.
You should see how wet the land is.

mike65

Winter feed is going to be poor quality and some root/arable crops are going to be both poor quailty and short supply.

Mike.

BostonB

Tristrame wrote:

Not for the farmer.
You should see how wet the land is.

Judging by my garden the land must be pretty bad.

arctictree

My potato patch is doing really well though. Its on a well drained slope though so no water logging. All the rain has given the spuds exactly what they need to put on some bulk. BTW - The chart for tomorrow looks great for winter - not a nice summer one though....

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts.asp

A

rc28

BostonB wrote:

Judging by my garden the land must be pretty bad.

Yes,around me the fields are completely waterlogged and very muddy, the downpour the other night really worsened things and it's taking ages for the water to drain down. In one or two places there are floods usually only seen after periods of heavy rain in winter. In many fields the long grass has still yet to be cut for hay/silage which is very late.

rc28

Just noticed this now; the lightning last week knocked out phone lines for thousands of people and there are still 5,000 left to be reconnected:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0722/eircom.html?ST=encunry_pynapl@lnubb.pb.hxRTEMAIL

Big Tone

According to UK Met experts (quoted on page 8 of yesterday's ST) August is looking bad too.
They confirm what I have said here previously, the combination of La Nina (cooling of the Pacific), the strong Jet Stream several hundred miles more South than it should be at this time of the year (should be heading up North of Scotland), the effect of extreme heat in Central and South-eastern Europe colliding with Atlantic fronts here, and finally the warming of the Atlantic due to climate change.

BTW no tropical storms forming off west Africa due to extreme heat rising from the Sahara heading towards the Carribean and having a dampening effect on tropical storms/hurricanes, which is why it's a quiet Hurricane season so far.

Wake me up when August ends!!

arctictree

Are we looking at a possible settled spell from Monday next onwards??:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Could be a bit early but it looks good on those charts...

A

rockdrummer

That looks good to me, getting a bit warmer aswell, and Im off mon and tue !!!

LFCFan

If those chart become a reality and we get some decent high pressure over us, does that mean that the Jet Stream will have pissed off somewhere else?

lucernarian

They don't look impressive now. Some of them are suggesting HP forming to the south, but the PFJ is never far away and either it's just to the north or it's basically over us.

fatherdougalmag

... but the PFJ is never far away ...

The People's Front of Judea? Splitters.

Big Tone

To_be_confirmed wrote:

They don't look impressive now. Some of them are suggesting HP forming to the south, but the PFJ is never far away and either it's just to the north or it's basically over us.

Take a look and compare what we should have and what the situation is this Summer. Unless the Jet Stream shifts North then we can expect more of the same weather headlines for August:

1. In a 'normal' summer, the Atlantic jetstream directs areas of low pressure, which bring cloud and rain, to the north of the UK. High pressure systems over Europe and the Atlantic bring warm, settled conditions.

2. This summer, the jetstream is flowing further south allowing low pressure systems to sweep straight over the centre of Britain and Ireland. It is also pulling in warmer air from the sub-tropics and Africa which is sweeping over south-eastern Europe.

fatherdougalmag

Met E (via RTÉ) giving warnings about Sunday's puddle-maker:

There is a risk of some heavy rain developing through Saturday evening, night and Sunday morning. There is a possibility of between 20 and 40mm during this period.

nilhg

GFS doesn't agree, there are big differences between the various models at the moment, still some hope for something better.

fatherdougalmag

The GFS ensemble is indicating some activity

Big Tone

More proof as if it were needed that you'll have to head to southeast Europe for any sign of good weather!

mike65

My sig link is looking hopeful again.

Mike.

rockdrummer

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Things may be looking up for August - beginning looks gud at least up until next Sunday.

Two comments:
(1) 1020hpa is only technically high pressure.It can be wet in it,it's not enough to dry out a front.
(2)Here is the latest UKMO fax output and what do I see there...
Ah yes weather fronts driving through that 1020...
Looking at GFS panels in isolation does not a forecast make...
Expect dull and drizzle/rain a lot of the time and you won't be disappointed.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3a.gif


http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

rockdrummer

always the pessimist.....

But looking better, should I go as far as to say good for next weekend (4/5th August)

No because numerical weather programmes in this kind of mobile situation are not reliable beyond about 5 days.