Moving up in the world

Hectorjelly

padraig_f wrote:

I'm not sure it's good value at 5 to 1, but with the $2500 added I don't think it's a bad proposition. It's not unreasonable to expect a decent player to win 1 in 5 $5 sngs. 1/(5^5) = 1/3125. So depending on how much you play, I think it could be made into a profitable bet.

I lost track but I think amaru is putting up €150. He stands to win 1500 from Roundtower, 2133 from PP and 150 from Culchie. So its 150 : 3783, or 1:25.22
So he needs to win this bet about 4% of the time to make it profitable. (3.8%)

I think 1/5 is far too generous to Amaru, dont forget he will now be under serious pressure. Winning 1/6 would be a good rate. Its quite complicated to work out what the chances of an event happening a certain amount of times in a sequence is, I did it in a spreadsheet. Here is the formula:

P(1) = 0
P(2) = 0
P(3) = 0
P(4) = 0 (this is because its not possible for it to happen 5 times yet)
P(5) = (1/6)^5
P(6) = P(5) + (5/6)*(1/6)^5
P(n) = P(n-1) + [1 - P(n-6)]*(5/6)*(1/6)^5 for n > 6

P(200) = 2.04%
P(400) = 4.19%

So amaru will need to play nearly 400 games before the bet becomes fair, and he has to play 400 at a high standard of play.

If he is winning 1/5 then he needs to play 153 games before it becomes a good wager.

Hopefully this will give some indication as to how silly the wager was before Pit Boss added the $2500. He would need to play something in the region of 750 games then to make it a fair bet.

Amaru

Looks like i better learn to multi table!

One question though, where did you get the 2133 for PPP? Why isn't it 2500?

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

Looks like i better learn to multi table!

One question though, where did you get the 2133 for PPP? Why isn't it 2500?

$2500 = 2133 Euros

Culchie

Hectorjelly wrote:

I lost track but I think amaru is putting up €150. He stands to win 1500 from Roundtower, 2133 from PP and 150 from Culchie. So its 150 : 3783, or 1:25.22
So he needs to win this bet about 4% of the time to make it profitable. (3.8%)

I think 1/5 is far too generous to Amaru, dont forget he will now be under serious pressure. Winning 1/6 would be a good rate. Its quite complicated to work out what the chances of an event happening a certain amount of times in a sequence is, I did it in a spreadsheet. Here is the formula:

P(1) = 0
P(2) = 0
P(3) = 0
P(4) = 0 (this is because its not possible for it to happen 5 times yet)
P(5) = (1/6)^5
P(6) = P(5) + (5/6)*(1/6)^5
P(n) = P(n-1) + [1 - P(n-6)]*(5/6)*(1/6)^5 for n > 6

P(200) = 2.04%
P(400) = 4.19%

So amaru will need to play nearly 400 games before the bet becomes fair, and he has to play 400 at a high standard of play.

If he is winning 1/5 then he needs to play 153 games before it becomes a good wager.

Hopefully this will give some indication as to how silly the wager was before Pit Boss added the $2500. He would need to play something in the region of 750 games then to make it a fair bet.

My €150 is just a sporting bet ... then along come PPP and steal the thunder again;) ...
Big old Goliath flexing their muscles :cool:

Mmmm_Lemony

Amaru wrote:

Thats alright, i was joking anyway. 15-1 would have been nice though.....

Amaru, I'll give you 15-1 for anything up to €3 and throw in a samurai sword if you do it. I'm not allowed sell it on here (No Weapons!)

Thats €48 and a Sword for a stake of €3

I hope you do it! Best of Luck.

TacT

good luck!

Lex

Cant believe I haven't gone through the rest of this thread until today! Excellent stuff.
This is a difficult feat Amaru. And its compounded by the added pressure of the fact that you now "have to" win as opposed to normaly playing to win. You've already mentioned this has started affecting your game. I think this will be your biggest stumbling block anf it is why everyone is willing to stake cash against you.

I've played a couple of hundred of 5 seater SnGs and after starting at the $5 dollar talbes I graduated up to the $20 talbes. To avoid having to reload after screwing up my bankroll during a bad run at the SnGs and by trying my hand at cash games (which I suck at! ) I decided to bring my game back to basics I dropped back down to the $5 games.

The first session I had back at the $5 tables was the best run of consectuive wins I've had. Due to the fact that I was previously playing on higher levels I found myself playing with more confidence and decisiveness than before. Coupled with a quality run of cards I went on to place 1st in 5 in a row of these games. I'm the first to admit that this was the result of a stretch of good variance and is alot easier to acomplish with only 5 seats at the table. My point is that I was putting myself under no pressure and was just taking it all one game at a time.

I've no reason to doubt your original achievement, but I do think it will be difficult to repeat in such a short time frame coupled with the added pressure you have put on yourself due to tha large ammounts of money at stake. Its alot more difficult to win consistently when you are trying to force yourself to do so. Good luck. Keep us posted.

p.s. if you can manage this will you play the Ladbrokes Carribean Poker Cruise Ladders for me?? :v: $4 buy-in at Level 1 and if you can win 5 levels/games of the 5 seater SnGs we'll be off to Miami in Jan!! :cool:

hotspur

Another 5 in a row player on here must give you a bit of confidence Amaru, even if he does have a Superman icon. Speaking of $5 sit n go's, I very occassionally used to prevent myself from tilting away a lot of money by closing down my cash tables and playing a $5 sit n go on Stars just to go mad. Anyhoos this led to my most bizarre achievement in poker - I won a 9 player sit n go having seen *every* single flop. That has got to be even less often done (why the hell would anyone try) than 5 in a row. If you manage to win 1 of your 5 in a row having seen 100% of hands I'll chuck in another $1000 Amaru

Amaru

Okay, here's the conditions of the bet, agreed to by Roundtower and effective immediately

To win the bet, I must win 5 $5 9 seater STT’s consecutively on PPP

I have until December 31st, 2005 to do this

Results will be verified by PPP Pit Boss and/or Karlh

If the tournament structure changes dramatically before the closing date of the bet, the bet is forfeit.

The odds of the bet are 10 to 1 against me, for a stake of €150.00.

All tournaments will be examined for signs of cheating, collusion, soft playing etc.

Payment on the bet must be made before 31st January 2006

And its on!

RoundTower

Agreed. PPP Pitboss, please confirm you will be able to act as referee.

Tourneque

This will be fun

Good Luck Amaru.

I wonder if someone will 'out' you.... not that anyone here would look and see who was playing almost every $5 STT or anything

But to be fair ... I don't think anyone on this forum would actively try to knock you out of any STT anyway - I think everyone is interested in a fair outcome.

PPP-Pit Boss

RoundTower wrote:

Agreed. PPP Pitboss, please confirm you will be able to act as referee.

Confirmed and I would like to wish the best of luck to Amaru! Hope you do it!

Iago

halfway through the month, how's it going Amaru?

Dub13

Iago wrote:

halfway through the month, how's it going Amaru?

From another thread earlier today.

Amaru wrote:

Actually, i've been quiet about it because there's very little to report. I haven't had much time at all to play poker this week due to lack of time (mostly from switching jobs). In total, i've probably played about 15-20 sng's this whole week.

podgeen

How are you getting on with this Amaru?

karlh

topical spam:

http://www.paddypowerpoker.com/sp_stt.php

Amaru

podgeen wrote:

How are you getting on with this Amaru?

I'll announce the results and give a summary of the month in its own thread in a few days.

podgeen

good good, looking forward to reading it.

dexem

karlh wrote:

topical spam:

http://www.paddypowerpoker.com/sp_stt.php

Nuts! I won two in a row recently, 6th in a third, and won a fourth. Mostly luck though, and a dropped connection when I got heads up

Hectorjelly

Amaru wrote:

I'll announce the results and give a summary of the month in its own thread in a few days.

Has this been done yet?

Amaru

No, i haven't got around to writing it up yet. It'll probably be up the day after tomorrow, if i get the time.

califano

Amaru wrote:

No, i haven't got around to writing it up yet. It'll probably be up the day after tomorrow, if i get the time.

.

roryc

Fair play either way Amaru. Whether you got close to winning 5 doesn't matter, at least you accepted the challenge.

It's no easy task either. I manged to win three 15 seater $5 games in a row last night on All In, and I couldn't have done it with a large amount of luck. Regardless of skill, you need to get the cards and win the 50/50's to get into the money, and to win you need to have the better luck heads up.

Also, on a side note, do All In do ANY promotions/ bonuses other than the rakeback and bad beat? If I had been on another site I could have won a few quid for winning 3 in a row.

RoundTower

Amaru wrote:

No, i haven't got around to writing it up yet. It'll probably be up the day after tomorrow, if i get the time.

OK, so no sign of this, maybe this was just buying you enough time to flee to South America before I alerted the authorities in the airport or could get your passport confiscated.

So I'd like to ask PPP-Pitboss to confirm whether or not Amaru managed to win 5 STTs in a row since this bet was made, under the conditions posted in this thread. Once that is confirmed I would like to present Amaru with €1500, or possibly ask him for €150. I'll take a cheque, a bank transfer or an envelope in the Fitz.

Amaru

I've already said in a couple of threads that i didn't do it. I thought you would have figured it out when i didn't PM telling you you owed me a grand and a half. As far as the report, i still haven't got around to writing it up, due to other committments.

I'll contact you later on in the month about payment. I do like how you seem to think i'm going to skip on paying you though. No faith in the honesty of gamblers Roundtower?

DapperGent

In fairness you could have PMed him about how you intend on paying the €150. You've had plenty of time. No use in calling into question his manners when you've had ample opportunity to act in a polite manner yourself and failed to do so.

Amaru

I don't have to pay up until the 31st, so i didn't see the need to contact him yet. I also can't afford to pay him until the end of the month(which was the reason for that stipulation in the contract), so why make arrangements on something i don't have yet?

And i'm not calling into question his manners, i'm taking exception to him thinking i won't pay. This whole bet has been operated on the level, so why would payment be any different?

bohsman

Amaru wrote:

I don't have to pay up until the 31st, so i didn't see the need to contact him yet. I also can't afford to pay him until the end of the month, so why make arrangements on something i don't have yet?

And i'm not calling into question his manners, i'm taking exception to him thinking i won't pay. This whole bet has been operated on the level, so why would payment be any different?

He was obviously taking the piss or would you generally flee to south america over 150euro? Also would a PM to let him know that you lost not have been in order?

Amaru

It was in another thread, when he questioned whether i was "welshing on the bet".

I made reference in a thread we were both posting on, in and around the 1st about the bet, so i just assumed he knew that i didn't do it. Is it not worse manners that he wanted PPP Pit Boss to confirm whether i'd done it instead of PM'ing me directly? The bet was between the two of us, PPP was just the referee.

RoundTower

Amaru wrote:

It was in another thread, when he questioned whether i was "welshing on the bet".

I made reference in a thread we were both posting on, in and around the 1st about the bet, so i just assumed he knew that i didn't do it. Is it not worse manners that he wanted PPP Pit Boss to confirm whether i'd done it instead of PM'ing me directly? The bet was between the two of us, PPP was just the referee.

I'm sorry, I thought it was clear I was joking. I don't mind waiting to get paid at the end of the month, I just wanted to know who won.