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Storm Ali : Weds 19 Sept 2018
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16-09-2018 11:11pm#1The main models have been showing a very vigorous system for Weds for a number of runs now. This storm is being aided by a very fast jet. It's track could drift further North as they sometimes do and it could have lesser wind speeds by Weds but at present it is worth keeping a record of it's progress I think. We can change the title if needs be.
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If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:
This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.0 -
If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:
This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.
EEEK i live in the epi centre of that storm.0 -
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This is as autumnal as you can get. I'm going to the Ploughing Championships on Wednesdaysquarecircles wrote: »latest form Met Eireann.
Very disturbed weather expected through the rest of the week.
Wednesday: Wet and very windy on Wednesday especially during the morning, with widespread rain and some very heavy falls expected through western and northern counties especially, with local flooding. Very windy countrywide with strong to gale force southerly winds, possibly reaching storm force at Sea off the west and north coasts. Winds will veer westerly in the afternoon and later moderate. Highs of 14 to 17 degrees Celsius. Some further heavy rain possible Wednesday night in southern areas especially near the south, drier elsewhere with scattered showers.
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Weds charts make today look like a gentle breeze. Difference in timing and each with a slight difference in strength but looking very windy for most and extremely windy on Atlantic coasts especially in the W and NW and possibly SW.
Helenes downgrade would make me a little bit hesitant giving my opinion ( and it is only that ) but the charts have been holding the wind speeds for Weds. and looking like widespread gusting to 85-90 km/h with higher winds possible maybe gusting 110 to 120 overland also. ARPEGE showing parts of the NW getting gusts 120 to 130 km/h atm.
Overall the tendency with wind prediction charts is to ease nearer the time. Over the last few days there has been little change from what I can see.
Will see the ECM later. One of the more reliable charts.
Gusts
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WRF -NMM just rolled out and cintinuing the theme for widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and possibly higher in places.
Needless to say a concern with all the trees in full foliage. Saving grace that it is moving through fairly quickly but looks like all places getting 4 -5 hrs or there abouts of very strong winds.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?
Admittedly on second look, the first scenario looks a little anomalous. Very small area and very high in comparison to the surrounding contours.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »That's mountaintop winds. But I did spot a 161 kph at sea level just north of Malin Head, though!
In fairness, you didn't specify which level the winds should be in the post I replied to
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The ARPEGE has highest mean winds of 75 knots and max gusts of 99 knots north of Malin Head Wednesday afternoon. Prone to overdoing it in windstorms but with the ECM pointing in that general direction it will be interesting to watch reports from Donegal Airport, Malin Head and the Hebrides. Definite stingjet signals.
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SleetAndSnow wrote: »The newspapers already confusing people. The journal is reporting that the yellow warning for wind is for the tail end of Helene this Wednesday!
The name Helene has been thrown around a fair bit over the last few days, so it's just easier to go with that.
Anything else thrown in the mix, unless significant, is more confusing for the majority reader.Beverly Hills, California
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SleetAndSnow wrote: »The newspapers already confusing people. The journal is reporting that the yellow warning for wind is for the tail end of Helene this Wednesday!
Let's make a pact on here not to quote or be in any way concerned about how 'newspapers' are reporting on this potential. Media companies have no interest in raw facts and are not motivated by concern for society at large nor are they following any moral compass. They are driven solely by profit and they can publish horse **** like this on daily basis (not just on weather, but on many topics) because they are largely unaccountable.New Moon
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This discussion has been closed.
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