Storm Ali : Weds 19 Sept 2018

Meteorite58 · 16-09-2018 11:11pm #1

The main models have been showing a very vigorous system for Weds for a number of runs now. This storm is being aided by a very fast jet. It's track could drift further North as they sometimes do and it could have lesser wind speeds by Weds but at present it is worth keeping a record of it's progress I think. We can change the title if needs be.

pad199207 · 16-09-2018 11:20pm

Yeah the weather for the rest of the week needs monitoring more than Helene

Widdensushi · 16-09-2018 11:26pm

Ali i presume will rumble

Pangea · 17-09-2018 12:38am

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

sdanseo · 17-09-2018 12:44am

Pangea wrote: »

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

Borderline at the moment. 12Z ECM calling for mean >80km/h and gusts >130km/h, both red criteria, over small portions of Galway and Mayo.

Probably not quite enough for them to go red yet on balance - they don't pull that trigger when it's so marginal (which of course defeats the purpose of the criteria, but hey, that's another debate).

Any upgrades between now and Tuesday however and it will be red for parts of the west.

pauldry · 17-09-2018 2:02am

Pangea wrote: »

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

What number is this on Sky?

Pangea · 17-09-2018 7:41am

Going by the lack of action on here and M.Ts tame forecast for Wednesday a Red seems like a long shot.

MJohnston · 17-09-2018 1:38pm

If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:

This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.

squarecircles · 17-09-2018 1:41pm

MJohnston wrote: »

If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:

This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.

EEEK i live in the epi centre of that storm.

squarecircles · 17-09-2018 1:57pm

latest form Met Eireann.

Very disturbed weather expected through the rest of the week.

Wednesday: Wet and very windy on Wednesday especially during the morning, with widespread rain and some very heavy falls expected through western and northern counties especially, with local flooding. Very windy countrywide with strong to gale force southerly winds, possibly reaching storm force at Sea off the west and north coasts. Winds will veer westerly in the afternoon and later moderate. Highs of 14 to 17 degrees Celsius. Some further heavy rain possible Wednesday night in southern areas especially near the south, drier elsewhere with scattered showers.

Artane2002 · 17-09-2018 2:32pm

squarecircles wrote: »

latest form Met Eireann.

Very disturbed weather expected through the rest of the week.

Wednesday: Wet and very windy on Wednesday especially during the morning, with widespread rain and some very heavy falls expected through western and northern counties especially, with local flooding. Very windy countrywide with strong to gale force southerly winds, possibly reaching storm force at Sea off the west and north coasts. Winds will veer westerly in the afternoon and later moderate. Highs of 14 to 17 degrees Celsius. Some further heavy rain possible Wednesday night in southern areas especially near the south, drier elsewhere with scattered showers.

This is as autumnal as you can get. I'm going to the Ploughing Championships on Wednesday

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 2:38pm

Cross model agreement on very windy weather countrywide on Weds. More so in the W and NW , some models showing the SW very windy for a time early morning.

Going to stick a yellow advisory on the thread title. Can upgrade later , quite possiby orange warning for quite a few areas.

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 2:42pm

Worth noting some models showing some windy weather on Atlantic coastal counties Tues evening / Night.

Graces7 · 17-09-2018 2:58pm

squarecircles wrote: »

EEEK i live in the epi centre of that storm.

that means so do I? eeeekk also. eyes tired and I think power is flickering west mayo offshore island

irelandspurs · 17-09-2018 3:19pm

Flying home from Majorca Wednesday evening. We may just stay for another week so.:)

squarecircles · 17-09-2018 3:49pm

latest on the coming week from the Met Office.

pistolpetes11 · 17-09-2018 5:28pm

My 16:30 Ferry to Cairnryan on Wednesday looks like being some craic :pac:

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 6:56pm

Weds charts make today look like a gentle breeze. Difference in timing and each with a slight difference in strength but looking very windy for most and extremely windy on Atlantic coasts especially in the W and NW and possibly SW.

Helenes downgrade would make me a little bit hesitant giving my opinion ( and it is only that ) but the charts have been holding the wind speeds for Weds. and looking like widespread gusting to 85-90 km/h with higher winds possible maybe gusting 110 to 120 overland also. ARPEGE showing parts of the NW getting gusts 120 to 130 km/h atm.

Overall the tendency with wind prediction charts is to ease nearer the time. Over the last few days there has been little change from what I can see.

Will see the ECM later. One of the more reliable charts.

Gusts

Mean wind speeds

Gusts

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 7:05pm

WRF -NMM just rolled out and cintinuing the theme for widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and possibly higher in places.

Needless to say a concern with all the trees in full foliage. Saving grace that it is moving through fairly quickly but looks like all places getting 4 -5 hrs or there abouts of very strong winds.

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 7:11pm

Deepening as it passes close to the Irish coast.

worded · 17-09-2018 7:13pm

There is a storm coming - youtube film links ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTzh8uhnlqc

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 7:17pm

ECM 12Z out now

Mean speeds 100m

Mean Speeds 10m

Gusts

SleetAndSnow · 17-09-2018 7:20pm

Looks like the South/South West/West could be in for some orange alerts + in the coming days from Ali. Wonder if Met Eireann will mention it soon, it is only two days away.

sdanseo · 17-09-2018 7:24pm

Consistent red warning criteria met again now on guidance from the last 2-3 runs on multiple models.

If we don't see red for western coastal counties, I will understand why, but it will also make an absolute mockery of the existing warning levels.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-09-2018 7:44pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 12Z out now

Mean speeds

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

sdanseo · 17-09-2018 7:52pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

Yup, any orange/red warnings based on ECM will be for gusts not mean. Mean barely about 65km/h for the most part but gusts >150km/h.

Meteorite58 · 17-09-2018 7:53pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

Fixed. Thanks for that.

Oneiric 3 · 17-09-2018 7:54pm

ECM showing a potential 'sting jet' developing near north coast?

Mean speeds in excess of 50 knots in just a very small area. Way too early for this to be anyway accurate though.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-09-2018 8:42pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Yup, any orange/red warnings based on ECM will be for gusts not mean. Mean barely about 65km/h for the most part but gusts >150km/h.

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

MJohnston · 17-09-2018 8:52pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

sdanseo · 17-09-2018 8:53pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

Admittedly on second look, the first scenario looks a little anomalous. Very small area and very high in comparison to the surrounding contours.

Storm Ali : Weds 19 Sept 2018

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