Storm Ali : Weds 19 Sept 2018

Meteorite58

The main models have been showing a very vigorous system for Weds for a number of runs now. This storm is being aided by a very fast jet. It's track could drift further North as they sometimes do and it could have lesser wind speeds by Weds but at present it is worth keeping a record of it's progress I think. We can change the title if needs be.

pad199207

Yeah the weather for the rest of the week needs monitoring more than Helene

Widdensushi

Ali i presume will rumble

Pangea

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

sdanseo

Pangea wrote: »

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

Borderline at the moment. 12Z ECM calling for mean >80km/h and gusts >130km/h, both red criteria, over small portions of Galway and Mayo.

Probably not quite enough for them to go red yet on balance - they don't pull that trigger when it's so marginal (which of course defeats the purpose of the criteria, but hey, that's another debate).

Any upgrades between now and Tuesday however and it will be red for parts of the west.

pauldry

Pangea wrote: »

Donegal Weather channel saying possible red warning.

What number is this on Sky?

Pangea

Going by the lack of action on here and M.Ts tame forecast for Wednesday a Red seems like a long shot.

MJohnston

If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:



This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.

squarecircles

MJohnston wrote: »

If the ARPEGE pans out there would definitely be Red warnings in the west:



This wind would be preceeded by a fair amount of rain too, so with the trees still holding onto all their leaves, and the worst of it being around midday, I'd definitely call this a Red if it pans out.

EEEK i live in the epi centre of that storm.

squarecircles

latest form Met Eireann.

Very disturbed weather expected through the rest of the week.

Wednesday: Wet and very windy on Wednesday especially during the morning, with widespread rain and some very heavy falls expected through western and northern counties especially, with local flooding. Very windy countrywide with strong to gale force southerly winds, possibly reaching storm force at Sea off the west and north coasts. Winds will veer westerly in the afternoon and later moderate. Highs of 14 to 17 degrees Celsius. Some further heavy rain possible Wednesday night in southern areas especially near the south, drier elsewhere with scattered showers.

Artane2002

squarecircles wrote: »

latest form Met Eireann.

Very disturbed weather expected through the rest of the week.

Wednesday: Wet and very windy on Wednesday especially during the morning, with widespread rain and some very heavy falls expected through western and northern counties especially, with local flooding. Very windy countrywide with strong to gale force southerly winds, possibly reaching storm force at Sea off the west and north coasts. Winds will veer westerly in the afternoon and later moderate. Highs of 14 to 17 degrees Celsius. Some further heavy rain possible Wednesday night in southern areas especially near the south, drier elsewhere with scattered showers.

This is as autumnal as you can get. I'm going to the Ploughing Championships on Wednesday

Meteorite58

Cross model agreement on very windy weather countrywide on Weds. More so in the W and NW , some models showing the SW very windy for a time early morning.

Going to stick a yellow advisory on the thread title. Can upgrade later , quite possiby orange warning for quite a few areas.

Meteorite58

Worth noting some models showing some windy weather on Atlantic coastal counties Tues evening / Night.

Graces7

squarecircles wrote: »

EEEK i live in the epi centre of that storm.

that means so do I? eeeekk also. eyes tired and I think power is flickering west mayo offshore island

irelandspurs

Flying home from Majorca Wednesday evening. We may just stay for another week so.:)

squarecircles

latest on the coming week from the Met Office.

pistolpetes11

My 16:30 Ferry to Cairnryan on Wednesday looks like being some craic :pac:

Meteorite58

Weds charts make today look like a gentle breeze. Difference in timing and each with a slight difference in strength but looking very windy for most and extremely windy on Atlantic coasts especially in the W and NW and possibly SW.

Helenes downgrade would make me a little bit hesitant giving my opinion ( and it is only that ) but the charts have been holding the wind speeds for Weds. and looking like widespread gusting to 85-90 km/h with higher winds possible maybe gusting 110 to 120 overland also. ARPEGE showing parts of the NW getting gusts 120 to 130 km/h atm.

Overall the tendency with wind prediction charts is to ease nearer the time. Over the last few days there has been little change from what I can see.

Will see the ECM later. One of the more reliable charts.

Gusts



Mean wind speeds



Gusts



Gusts

Meteorite58

WRF -NMM just rolled out and cintinuing the theme for widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and possibly higher in places.

Needless to say a concern with all the trees in full foliage. Saving grace that it is moving through fairly quickly but looks like all places getting 4 -5 hrs or there abouts of very strong winds.

Meteorite58

Deepening as it passes close to the Irish coast.

worded

There is a storm coming - youtube film links ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTzh8uhnlqc

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z out now

Mean speeds 100m








Mean Speeds 10m






Gusts

SleetAndSnow

Looks like the South/South West/West could be in for some orange alerts + in the coming days from Ali. Wonder if Met Eireann will mention it soon, it is only two days away.

sdanseo

Consistent red warning criteria met again now on guidance from the last 2-3 runs on multiple models.

If we don't see red for western coastal counties, I will understand why, but it will also make an absolute mockery of the existing warning levels.

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 12Z out now

Mean speeds

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

Yup, any orange/red warnings based on ECM will be for gusts not mean. Mean barely about 65km/h for the most part but gusts >150km/h.

Meteorite58

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those mean speeds are for 100 metres agl, not 10 metres.

Fixed. Thanks for that.

Oneiric 3

ECM showing a potential 'sting jet' developing near north coast?




Mean speeds in excess of 50 knots in just a very small area. Way too early for this to be anyway accurate though.

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Yup, any orange/red warnings based on ECM will be for gusts not mean. Mean barely about 65km/h for the most part but gusts >150km/h.

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

>150 kph on the ECM? Where are you seeing those?

Admittedly on second look, the first scenario looks a little anomalous. Very small area and very high in comparison to the surrounding contours.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

That's mountaintop winds. But I did spot a 161 kph at sea level just north of Malin Head, though!

Meteorite58

The Jet in action this week leading a train of Depressions towards us.







Current Max Wind speed predictions.

aisling86

Can't see this on met.ie... https://corksafetyalerts.com/news/ww170918

Oscar Bravo

Its up on the old version of the site

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
Very windy across Ireland from early on Wednesday morning until evening. South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr, strongest in southern, western and northern coastal areas.
Issued:
Monday 17 September 2018 21:00
Valid:
Wednesday 19 September 2018 05:00 to Wednesday 19 September 2018 17:00

sdanseo

aisling86 wrote: »

Can't see this on met.ie... https://corksafetyalerts.com/news/ww170918

It's on the archived site, but not the new one.

http://archive.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

scooby77

No drama from Siobhan there on rte 1. Seemed fairly blasé about Wednesday!

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's mountaintop winds. But I did spot a 161 kph at sea level just north of Malin Head, though!

In fairness, you didn't specify which level the winds should be in the post I replied to

Gaoth Laidir

The ARPEGE has highest mean winds of 75 knots and max gusts of 99 knots north of Malin Head Wednesday afternoon. Prone to overdoing it in windstorms but with the ECM pointing in that general direction it will be interesting to watch reports from Donegal Airport, Malin Head and the Hebrides. Definite stingjet signals.

MJohnston

Thursday night pretty interesting on the ARPEGE too:

SleetAndSnow

The newspapers already confusing people. The journal is reporting that the yellow warning for wind is for the tail end of Helene this Wednesday!

SortingYouOut

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

The newspapers already confusing people. The journal is reporting that the yellow warning for wind is for the tail end of Helene this Wednesday!

The name Helene has been thrown around a fair bit over the last few days, so it's just easier to go with that.

Anything else thrown in the mix, unless significant, is more confusing for the majority reader.

Oneiric 3

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

The newspapers already confusing people. The journal is reporting that the yellow warning for wind is for the tail end of Helene this Wednesday!

Let's make a pact on here not to quote or be in any way concerned about how 'newspapers' are reporting on this potential. Media companies have no interest in raw facts and are not motivated by concern for society at large nor are they following any moral compass. They are driven solely by profit and they can publish horse **** like this on daily basis (not just on weather, but on many topics) because they are largely unaccountable.

fergus1001

scooby77 wrote:

No drama from Siobhan there on rte 1. Seemed fairly blasé about Wednesday!

but you see the ploughing is on this week so they ain't gonna call a weather warning untill last minute in case it dissipates and they end up getting sued for loss of earnings or some such

MJohnston

One thing we never really got a good read on last year was whether Met Eireann had any rules around separation of individual storm naming - as in, do they just merge the effects of one into the other if they're less than 24 hours apart.

sdanseo

I'll just leave this here, if you're in Donegal, might be time to anchor yourself to the nearest solid object.

Gusts



Mean Speeds

Doctors room ghost

She’s making a fair dram of rain here in Galway now.no wind to speak of just heavy rain and very mild.leaving the window open kind of night

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z Gust Chart



Latest ARPEGE 18Z Max Winds, toned down a bit from earlier runs, more in line with the GFS now I would have thought

Meteorite58

HIRLAM 18Z Mean Wind Speeds

Graces7

A better night than was expected as the wind eased .
Still rumbling away.

Was expecting to see a stronger alert, but as others have said, all seems casual and blase.

west mayo;offshore island

DOCARCH

Gerry Murphy saying highly likely orange warning will be issued for tomorrow (for some areas) and storm named (Ali).