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21-01-2018, 23:35   #1
Meteorite58
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Wind Warning for Ireland - Storm Georgina

Thought it might be an idea to start a thread to see how this develops.

The 18Z GFS has brought the small fast moving deepening depression to our doorstep now running up along the W and NW coast on Tues night/ Weds morning. Another wet and windy night in store. The GFS has been increasing the intensity of the winds over the last few runs and looks like widespread gusts of 80-100 km/h overland atm, perhaps some pockets of 100-110 km/h on the coasts. At the early stage of development when it passes us so missing the stronger winds that will develop when it moves past Scotland. One to watch I think as can be unpredictable.







Strong jet over Ireland Tues /Weds



Rise in Temps initially Tues evening followed by a drop off behind the front bringing in colder sourced air.




Last edited by Meteorite58; 22-01-2018 at 07:42.
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21-01-2018, 23:59   #2
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ECM 12Z perhaps showing stronger winds than the GFS, Widespread gusts 100-110 km/h and areas more towards the coasts and high ground getting up to 120 km/h.







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22-01-2018, 10:24   #3
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Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?
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22-01-2018, 11:47   #4
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Wind Warning for Ireland

Southwest winds are expected to reach mean speeds of between 55 and 65 km/hr, gusting to 110 km/hr at times on Tuesday night.

Issued:

Monday 22 January 2018 11:00

Valid:

Tuesday 23 January 2018 20:00 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 06:00
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22-01-2018, 17:40   #5
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Nearly all the models showing very windy weather for Tues night/ Thurs morning across Ireland ( Hirlam 06Z not as windy ) with fair agreement between the models of the track and intensity . Will come down to the wire to know where is going to get the most wind and if some counties or coastal areas will get an orange warning .Blustery day on Weds.

ARPEGE 12Z Gusts



GFS 12Z



ICON 12Z

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22-01-2018, 17:44   #6
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ECM 850 hPa Wind speeds








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22-01-2018, 18:12   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weisses View Post
Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?
Just in my amateur opinion : In this case just coincidence I would think in that the depression is just forming off Ireland between the cold polar air and the Southern mid Latitude air and the fast jet creates more turbulence ( eddies ) underneath helping to form LP's giving them more spin and in this case rapidly.


GFS shows well the depression deepening rapidly on Tues and again coincidentally another area of LP on Weds evening / Thurs and this time filling giving blustery conditions.

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22-01-2018, 23:22   #8
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Icon 18Z perhaps gives readings a tad high but still showing the top end of yellow warning if not touching Orange warning ( gusts between 110-130 km/h ) on coastal counties tomorrow night/ Weds morning. Shows at least a yellow warning ( gusts 90-110 km/h )across Ireland with the chance of higher gusts maybe?

Fast moving but looks to pack a punch.

Remaining blustery on coasts during Weds.

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22-01-2018, 23:28   #9
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ARPOGE 18Z run showing widespread gusts across Ireland between 90-100 km/h, perhaps 100-110 km/h on some coasts .




ECM 12Z Showing widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and plenty of 100-110 km/h gusts overland and higher gusts over higher ground.






Last edited by Meteorite58; 22-01-2018 at 23:36. Reason: update charts
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22-01-2018, 23:48   #10
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12Z WRF-NMM HI Res model showing very strong gusts over the E briefly before the the strongest winds clear the coast.



18Z WRF Strong winds along coasts especially the S and SE

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22-01-2018, 23:57   #11
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Jet Stream. Predicted very strong over Ireland Tues into Weds.

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22-01-2018, 23:57   #12
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John eagleton on radio 1 just now "there will be some stormy conditions tomorrow night followed by a blustery day on wednesday" he didnt elaborate on any details
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23-01-2018, 08:02   #13
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A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.
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23-01-2018, 08:46   #14
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A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.
Hopefully the ESB are a bit quicker to respond/prepare and get the man power here than the last time.
I don't fancy being without power for 6 days again like Ophelia and Darwin before that.
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23-01-2018, 13:28   #15
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Biblical hail and wind in Sligo currently totally out of the blue.

Temps gone from 12.3c to 7.2c in 10 mins

Is this the start of this evenings event
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