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Wind Warning for Ireland - Storm Georgina

  • 22-01-2018 12:35am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thought it might be an idea to start a thread to see how this develops.

    The 18Z GFS has brought the small fast moving deepening depression to our doorstep now running up along the W and NW coast on Tues night/ Weds morning. Another wet and windy night in store. The GFS has been increasing the intensity of the winds over the last few runs and looks like widespread gusts of 80-100 km/h overland atm, perhaps some pockets of 100-110 km/h on the coasts. At the early stage of development when it passes us so missing the stronger winds that will develop when it moves past Scotland. One to watch I think as can be unpredictable.

    rLixAMq.gif?1

    tempresult_lnr5.gif

    tempresult_kcg1.gif

    Strong jet over Ireland Tues /Weds

    tempresult_stw6.gif

    Rise in Temps initially Tues evening followed by a drop off behind the front bringing in colder sourced air.

    tempresult_bbu1.gif

    E9XYKcn.gif?1


«134567

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z perhaps showing stronger winds than the GFS, Widespread gusts 100-110 km/h and areas more towards the coasts and high ground getting up to 120 km/h.

    RYe4c5F.png

    WEhESbr.png

    63KyGk8.png

    WXZCQkg.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,113 ✭✭✭ weisses


    Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Ireland

    Southwest winds are expected to reach mean speeds of between 55 and 65 km/hr, gusting to 110 km/hr at times on Tuesday night.

    Issued:

    Monday 22 January 2018 11:00

    Valid:

    Tuesday 23 January 2018 20:00 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 06:00


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Nearly all the models showing very windy weather for Tues night/ Thurs morning across Ireland ( Hirlam 06Z not as windy ) with fair agreement between the models of the track and intensity . Will come down to the wire to know where is going to get the most wind and if some counties or coastal areas will get an orange warning .Blustery day on Weds.

    ARPEGE 12Z Gusts

    tempresult_dcq2.gif

    GFS 12Z

    tempresult_xqe7.gif

    ICON 12Z

    tempresult_nty4.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECU1-48_qwl1.GIF


    ECM 850 hPa Wind speeds

    ECU4-48_tdb2.GIF


    ccNnEgJ.png

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    Z309Ekl.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    weisses wrote: »
    Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?

    Just in my amateur opinion : In this case just coincidence I would think in that the depression is just forming off Ireland between the cold polar air and the Southern mid Latitude air and the fast jet creates more turbulence ( eddies ) underneath helping to form LP's giving them more spin and in this case rapidly.


    GFS shows well the depression deepening rapidly on Tues and again coincidentally another area of LP on Weds evening / Thurs and this time filling giving blustery conditions.

    tempresult_ylx8.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Icon 18Z perhaps gives readings a tad high but still showing the top end of yellow warning if not touching Orange warning ( gusts between 110-130 km/h ) on coastal counties tomorrow night/ Weds morning. Shows at least a yellow warning ( gusts 90-110 km/h )across Ireland with the chance of higher gusts maybe?

    Fast moving but looks to pack a punch.

    Remaining blustery on coasts during Weds.

    tempresult_fgu3.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPOGE 18Z run showing widespread gusts across Ireland between 90-100 km/h, perhaps 100-110 km/h on some coasts .

    tempresult_nyb3.gif


    ECM 12Z Showing widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and plenty of 100-110 km/h gusts overland and higher gusts over higher ground.

    i7i7qh4.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    12Z WRF-NMM HI Res model showing very strong gusts over the E briefly before the the strongest winds clear the coast.

    tempresult_vdv9.gif

    18Z WRF Strong winds along coasts especially the S and SE

    tempresult_wcr7.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,468 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Jet Stream. Predicted very strong over Ireland Tues into Weds.

    tempresult_ach1.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    John eagleton on radio 1 just now "there will be some stormy conditions tomorrow night followed by a blustery day on wednesday" he didnt elaborate on any details


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,721 ✭✭✭ Say my name


    Villain wrote: »
    A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.

    Hopefully the ESB are a bit quicker to respond/prepare and get the man power here than the last time.
    I don't fancy being without power for 6 days again like Ophelia and Darwin before that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Biblical hail and wind in Sligo currently totally out of the blue.

    Temps gone from 12.3c to 7.2c in 10 mins

    Is this the start of this evenings event


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ redsteveireland


    pauldry wrote: »
    Biblical hail and wind in Sligo currently totally out of the blue.

    Temps gone from 12.3c to 7.2c in 10 mins

    Is this the start of this evenings event

    Is it not about 7 hours too early? Just a typical squally January shower I'd say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,138 ✭✭✭ lolie


    Some fairly wild gusts hear in s cavan in the last hour or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Is it not about 7 hours too early? Just a typical squally January shower I'd say.

    thats what i thought too.

    was a beautiful morning till that

    gone now again but squall showed on radar like you say


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    We're now on an Orange wind warning with a named storm Georgina to boot!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,448 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Darwin wrote: »
    We're now on an Orange wind warning with a named storm Georgina to boot!

    I thought we already had Georgina?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    From met
    Wind Warning for Ireland
    A depression now named Storm Georgina will track to the northwest of the country tonight. Southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 65 and 80 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h for a time tonight.

    Issued:Tuesday 23 January 2018 14:00
    Valid:Wednesday 24 January 2018 00:01 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 05:00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I thought we already had Georgina?

    No, the wind storm last Wednesday night (17th) was never named.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Flying into Dublin at 11 pm tonight. Hope there's no delay as wind gets pretty bad later on in the night; direction 200-210, but with gusts from a more veered direction it could be a problem for both runways, especially if the runway's wet.

    TAF COR EIDW 231127Z 2312/2412 23020G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT030
    TEMPO 2312/2315 24024G38KT
    BECMG 2316/2318 23015KT
    BECMG 2319/2321 20013KT
    BECMG 2321/2323 19020G34KT
    TEMPO 2322/2404 7000 -RA BKN013
    BECMG 2323/2401 20028G47KT
    TEMPO 2401/2403 21032G52KT

    BECMG 2401/2403 23029G47KT
    PROB40 TEMPO 2402/2404 5000 RA
    BECMG 2403/2405 23025G40KT
    BECMG 2405/2407 23018G32KT
    TEMPO 2407/2412 23023G37KT
    TEMPO 2409/2412 -SHRA SCT018CB=

    Meanwhile, here in Rome it's amazing weather. Clear skies, calm winds, high teens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Flying into Dublin at 11 pm tonight. Hope there's no delay as wind gets pretty bad later on in the night; direction 200-210, but with gusts from a more veered direction it could be a problem for both runways, especially if the runway's wet.

    TAF COR EIDW 231127Z 2312/2412 23020G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT030
    TEMPO 2312/2315 24024G38KT
    BECMG 2316/2318 23015KT
    BECMG 2319/2321 20013KT
    BECMG 2321/2323 19020G34KT
    TEMPO 2322/2404 7000 -RA BKN013
    BECMG 2323/2401 20028G47KT
    TEMPO 2401/2403 21032G52KT

    BECMG 2401/2403 23029G47KT
    PROB40 TEMPO 2402/2404 5000 RA
    BECMG 2403/2405 23025G40KT
    BECMG 2405/2407 23018G32KT
    TEMPO 2407/2412 23023G37KT
    TEMPO 2409/2412 -SHRA SCT018CB=

    Aren’t they still resurfacing 10/28 also, meaning landing 16?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    Can someone amend the thread title to ORANGE WARNING


  • Registered Users Posts: 890 ✭✭✭ downwiththatsor


    Can someone amend the thread title to ORANGE WARNING

    No specific areas mentioned in warning so is it to be equally strong countrywide?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Aren’t they still resurfacing 10/28 also, meaning landing 16?

    That's what I mean. 200-210 is no problem for 16, but with gusts likely from more like 230-240 then it's in that no-man's-land direction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Interesting much stronger winds expected for west Highlands, NW Scotland and theyre on a yellow..

    arpegeuk-11-29-0.png?23-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Arpege doesn't really get to Orange level winds


    arpegeuk-11-18-0.png?23-11

    arpegeuk-11-22-0.png?23-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,202 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Aviation pressure warning for Shannon FIR

    EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 231515/232115 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 996HPA AND 978HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF N5300 AND W OF W01200=


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    That's what I mean. 200-210 is no problem for 16, but with gusts likely from more like 230-240 then it's in that no-man's-land direction.

    Is 230-240 not the same for 28 as 200-210 is for 16?

    Runway works are often cancelled when weather gets poor.


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