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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #722
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,114 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!


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    #723
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Look at this instead.


    tempresult_hna3.gif


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    #724
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Are the islands themselves responsible for the high?

    Like, should I hate them and their peoples?

    They’re actually beautiful islands, would recommend a visit. :)

    But yes the Azores High is unfortunately the scourge of the Irish winter. As the above charts grimly highlight.


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    #725
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.


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    #726
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Balls to that, I'd be up til six


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    #727
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,523 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.

    More interested in this coming in range of tomorrow's ARPEGE, to get a 3rd perspective!


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    #728
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,851 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    This will no doubt change but looks good

    ECU0-120_oet9.GIF

    hJtk8AR.png


    Cold week next week, Tues looking very cold at this stage.

    tempresult_gqc8.gif
    I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!

    Snow is just so rare on this side of the country at low levels, maybe a few snow showers on Tues next if we are lucky!


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    #729
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

    There's broad model support for a decent cold period coming up with plenty of snowy potential coming in from both sides.

    And maybe the GFS has gone mad, but if it's got this right then we're possibly in for one of the greats


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    #730
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,523 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    gabeeg wrote: »
    I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

    All the west coasters ;)


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    #731
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Well it is a silly place to live if you like snow.

    You should know better.


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    #732
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The first week in February has been kind to us before back in the 80s and 90s. Let's hope we get a (easterly) blast from the past this time again.


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    #733
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,523 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    What was that periodic pattern that someone mentioned a few weeks ago, that suggested a higher frequency of cold spells vaguely around February 10th?


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    #734
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/958796146952015872

    'Prelim data shows highest amplitude MJO event on record (back to 1979) over the West Pacific. Wow! #MJO #ClimateSmart'

    Hmmm very interesting... Let's keep that amplitude up and keep on moving towards phase 8


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    #735
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.
    MJohnston wrote: »
    All the west coasters ;)

    Yes we're world weary listening to all the east coasters misery porn moan rants,misty eyed,nostalgic,"when I was a lad" trips down misery,I mean memory lane, since the onset of winter.

    Oh,how I do hope one is buried to their oxsters in it. :)


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    #736
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Definitely heading in the right direction. Just checked out the ensembles and some stunners in there.

    Increasingly cold over the weekend and a heightening risk of snow is the headline...it's not just the snow potential but also some very, very cold nights.

    GFSP01EU18_108_2.png

    Still 96 hrs + potential, still a lot that can go wrong.



    Screw it, go nuts :p


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    #737
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    2..png.8cf7981fc2e4e46d1bd4dc973bce9a15.png

    I know these are not the most reliable, but you don't see charts like this one every day! Snow for all!


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    #738
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    The Iberian peninsula potentialy frozen solid as next week progresses also,all but the coastal extremities at freezing and below.


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    #739
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    GFS and UKMO pretty much more of the same. The theme for us is mostly multiple chances of some frontal snow events. Which I suspect is the way it will pan out.

    The first seems likely to be through Monday night and Tuesday.

    gfs-1-126.png?0


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    #740
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,993 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    The slurry muck is coming in quicker,wafting over the top of the Azores high,bringing temperatures up to 10/11/12 degrees briefly next saturday...

    The slurry muck wins out towards the end of the run this time.


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    #741
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    That high at day 10 is only paying a brief visit before it goes off to Greenland:)
    That may be wishful thinking


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    #742
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ECM advecting cold eastern air further west than any other model by 96 hours. This is what we want to see.

    ECM0-96.GIF?01-12

    The difference may look subtle between the UKMO and ECM but it's actually fairly significant for our prospects.

    UKMO

    UKMOPEU00_96_1.png

    ECM

    ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

    And by Monday night we see the Atlantic front over the country occluding and stalling with exceptionally cold air east and west turning to snow over the country.

    ECM0-120.GIF?01-12

    YQlGXC.gif


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    #743
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Just a quick reminder to folks not to go over to Netweather. These scenarios usually go pear shaped for us and bury Britain in snow.

    For health reasons just avoid it.


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    #744
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    MJohnston wrote: »
    What was that periodic pattern that someone mentioned a few weeks ago, that suggested a higher frequency of cold spells vaguely around February 10th?

    Buchans cold spells. 7 to 14 Feb is the relevant one here. The last really proper easterly I remember came in those dates in 1991.


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    #745
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Upgrade on the ICON model from it's previous run. Big upgrade on it's previous run actually. The more the cold air is advected west, the better.

    icon-0-90.png?01-06

    icon-1-102.png?01-06


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    #746
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    The easterly is a little further west on the 06z at 84 hours


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    #747
    Rodar08
    Registered Users Posts: 280 ✭✭Rodar08


    Is it still too far out to have it’s own thread etc. Seems exciting but not much discussion happening on it. Am I getting ahead of myself? MTs forecast seems so skim over next week but I have a good feeling about tomorrow’s forecast? More hints of the event possibly peter? Eeekk 🙈🀪 thanks for the updates so far guys.


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    #748
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,843 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Still too much left to verify. At the moment the balance of outcomes is for cold nights, spells of showers with mixed wintry falls and any accumulations on higher ground in the east and north. At lower populated levels im seeing daytime temps of 4-7C in the early days of next week, nothing to write home about.


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    #749
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,523 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Probably worth discussing it in the Winter thread at this point though, given it's starting to exit the FI timeframe?


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    #750
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Still too much left to verify. At the moment the balance of outcomes is for cold nights, spells of showers with mixed wintry falls and any accumulations on higher ground in the east and north. At lower populated levels im seeing daytime temps of 4-7C in the early days of next week, nothing to write home about.

    lol - oh how wrong...:D


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    #751
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,541 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Very rare sight to see the ICON model for any snow anywhere in Ireland...

    iconeu_uk1-1-117-0.png?01-11


    Defend the east coast!

    iconeu_uk1-16-105-0.png?01-11


This discussion has been closed.
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