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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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JCX BXC

I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!

gabeeg

Look at this instead.

snowstorm445

gabeeg wrote: »

Are the islands themselves responsible for the high?

Like, should I hate them and their peoples?

They’re actually beautiful islands, would recommend a visit.

But yes the Azores High is unfortunately the scourge of the Irish winter. As the above charts grimly highlight.

squarecircles

Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.

gabeeg

Balls to that, I'd be up til six

MJohnston

squarecircles wrote: »

Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.

More interested in this coming in range of tomorrow's ARPEGE, to get a 3rd perspective!

Meteorite58

This will no doubt change but looks good

Cold week next week, Tues looking very cold at this stage.

I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!

Snow is just so rare on this side of the country at low levels, maybe a few snow showers on Tues next if we are lucky!

gabeeg

I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

There's broad model support for a decent cold period coming up with plenty of snowy potential coming in from both sides.

And maybe the GFS has gone mad, but if it's got this right then we're possibly in for one of the greats

MJohnston

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

All the west coasters

gabeeg

Well it is a silly place to live if you like snow.

You should know better.

Gaoth Laidir

The first week in February has been kind to us before back in the 80s and 90s. Let's hope we get a (easterly) blast from the past this time again.

MJohnston

What was that periodic pattern that someone mentioned a few weeks ago, that suggested a higher frequency of cold spells vaguely around February 10th?

BLIZZARD7

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/958796146952015872

'Prelim data shows highest amplitude MJO event on record (back to 1979) over the West Pacific. Wow! #MJO #ClimateSmart'

Hmmm very interesting... Let's keep that amplitude up and keep on moving towards phase 8

squarecircles

I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

MJohnston wrote: »

All the west coasters

Yes we're world weary listening to all the east coasters misery porn moan rants,misty eyed,nostalgic,"when I was a lad" trips down misery,I mean memory lane, since the onset of winter.

Oh,how I do hope one is buried to their oxsters in it.

Kermit.de.frog

Definitely heading in the right direction. Just checked out the ensembles and some stunners in there.

Increasingly cold over the weekend and a heightening risk of snow is the headline...it's not just the snow potential but also some very, very cold nights.

Still 96 hrs + potential, still a lot that can go wrong.

Screw it, go nuts

nacho libre

2..png.8cf7981fc2e4e46d1bd4dc973bce9a15.png

I know these are not the most reliable, but you don't see charts like this one every day! Snow for all!

squarecircles

The Iberian peninsula potentialy frozen solid as next week progresses also,all but the coastal extremities at freezing and below.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS and UKMO pretty much more of the same. The theme for us is mostly multiple chances of some frontal snow events. Which I suspect is the way it will pan out.

The first seems likely to be through Monday night and Tuesday.

gfs-1-126.png?0

squarecircles

The slurry muck is coming in quicker,wafting over the top of the Azores high,bringing temperatures up to 10/11/12 degrees briefly next saturday...

The slurry muck wins out towards the end of the run this time.

nacho libre

That high at day 10 is only paying a brief visit before it goes off to Greenland:)
That may be wishful thinking

Kermit.de.frog

ECM advecting cold eastern air further west than any other model by 96 hours. This is what we want to see.

ECM0-96.GIF?01-12

The difference may look subtle between the UKMO and ECM but it's actually fairly significant for our prospects.

UKMO

ECM

And by Monday night we see the Atlantic front over the country occluding and stalling with exceptionally cold air east and west turning to snow over the country.

ECM0-120.GIF?01-12

pad199207

Just a quick reminder to folks not to go over to Netweather. These scenarios usually go pear shaped for us and bury Britain in snow.

For health reasons just avoid it.

Rebelbrowser

MJohnston wrote: »

What was that periodic pattern that someone mentioned a few weeks ago, that suggested a higher frequency of cold spells vaguely around February 10th?

Buchans cold spells. 7 to 14 Feb is the relevant one here. The last really proper easterly I remember came in those dates in 1991.

Kermit.de.frog

Upgrade on the ICON model from it's previous run. Big upgrade on it's previous run actually. The more the cold air is advected west, the better.

gabeeg

The easterly is a little further west on the 06z at 84 hours

Rodar08

Is it still too far out to have it’s own thread etc. Seems exciting but not much discussion happening on it. Am I getting ahead of myself? MTs forecast seems so skim over next week but I have a good feeling about tomorrow’s forecast? More hints of the event possibly peter? Eeekk ðŸ™ˆðŸ€ª thanks for the updates so far guys.

Larbre34

Still too much left to verify. At the moment the balance of outcomes is for cold nights, spells of showers with mixed wintry falls and any accumulations on higher ground in the east and north. At lower populated levels im seeing daytime temps of 4-7C in the early days of next week, nothing to write home about.

MJohnston

Probably worth discussing it in the Winter thread at this point though, given it's starting to exit the FI timeframe?

Kermit.de.frog

Larbre34 wrote: »

Still too much left to verify. At the moment the balance of outcomes is for cold nights, spells of showers with mixed wintry falls and any accumulations on higher ground in the east and north. At lower populated levels im seeing daytime temps of 4-7C in the early days of next week, nothing to write home about.

lol - oh how wrong...:D

Kermit.de.frog

Very rare sight to see the ICON model for any snow anywhere in Ireland...

Defend the east coast!