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10-10-2012, 20:09   #1
Wicklow Weather
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High winds and heavy rain in places this week (Discussion Thread)

The GFS is running the same outcomes for 3 days of a Low weather system of 980mb crossing Ireland next week between 16th to 18th October. Very much keeping an eye on as ECM shows a system of 990, UKMO goes for a 995 all positioned over Ireland. Lets see how it pans out on the models over the coming week and can they hold it together!

The GFS runs the system in a loop back across Northern Ireland from the 17th to 20th which leads me to think we might see some very high rainfall accum across Ireland.

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 15-10-2012 at 15:13. Reason: Adding Title!
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10-10-2012, 21:06   #2
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I wouldn't call wet and windy Fantasy Island unless I were a potato farmer in a desert.
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12-10-2012, 17:08   #3
maquiladora
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This is looking interesting now on the 12Z GFS. 114 hours. Could be gone on the next run though.
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12-10-2012, 17:30   #4
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Gusts up to about 110kph on some south/east coasts on this run.





It's not very far away but it's really subject to change so still FI in terms of intensity.
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12-10-2012, 18:31   #5
Wicklow Weather
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I have been watching this system for 4 days and she is still relatively close to Ireland on the ECM but GFS shows its further West and in the latest run further North of Ireland. The ECM Air Pressure is about 965mb. Either way next week from Tuesday through Sunday looks wet, windy and miserable!!!
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12-10-2012, 18:58   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wicklow Weather View Post
I have been watching this system for 4 days and she is still relatively close to Ireland on the ECM but GFS shows its further West and in the latest run further North of Ireland. The ECM Air Pressure is about 965mb. Either way next week from Tuesday through Sunday looks wet, windy and miserable!!!
The low on the 17th? GFS has the center passing right over Ireland, I posted the charts above.

0Z ECM is less severe, brings it down to 984mb on the west coast. 12Z isn't out yet.
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13-10-2012, 18:59   #7
M.T. Cranium
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Model trend today is towards a heavy rainfall event lasting 2-3 days, Tuesday to possibly Friday, Munster could potentially see local rainfall totals of 60-100 mm during the period. Will raise to alert status on Sunday if development trend continues.
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13-10-2012, 19:16   #8
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Model trend today is towards a heavy rainfall event lasting 2-3 days, Tuesday to possibly Friday, Munster could potentially see local rainfall totals of 60-100 mm during the period. Will raise to alert status on Sunday if development trend continues.
Yeah, more of a rain than a wind thing since I lasted posted those charts. Still a good deal on uncertainty on exact amounts.
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13-10-2012, 23:40   #9
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As we head into a very unsettled week I think the second half of the week will be a nowcast. Models are going in a flip flop from an earlier high wind outlook to a wetter outlook on the 18z. Looking at the latest GFS its rainfall accumulation is only 35mm for the week from an earlier 100mm across Eastern areas but its notable that 90mm is showing about 100 miles west of Kerry so Munster areas could see highest totals. Eyes peeled on this week!!!
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14-10-2012, 09:07   #10
 
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There's an unseasonably strong 180 kt jet
stream over us at the moment. Anyone flying to Spain today and tonight can expect a very bumpy ride indeed.


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14-10-2012, 10:04   #11
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With all that cloud and the Autumn here, it looks like next week is going to be really dark man!
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14-10-2012, 12:05   #12
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Latest GFS and ECM all but removed the system from the 20th of October.
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14-10-2012, 23:18   #13
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Looking fairly wild for the east on the 18th on the 18Z GFS. Heavy rain with a low spinning right up the Irish Sea.
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14-10-2012, 23:23   #14
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Hows it looking for the south? That heavy rainfall still looking likely?
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14-10-2012, 23:44   #15
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Originally Posted by leahyl View Post
Hows it looking for the south? That heavy rainfall still looking likely?
It's still FI in a way even though its only a few days away because its fairly unpredictable. The secondary low that forms on the 18Z GFS wasn't there in the 12Z run and could/will be changed again on the 0Z.
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