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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

  • 27-01-2012 11:11am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Well the overall synoptic for the next 10 days is very uncertain.

    However there is growing consensus that it will turn colder and much more settled. There is chance as the period progresses that a pulse of very cold air from the east could force west across Ireland. Southern England will be more at risk of the intense cold.

    A massive Siberian block is forcing west and as early as Sunday is making its presence felt by pushing an initial cold pool west. After this there is growing uncertainty but a good chance that the block will advance further during Wednesday February 1st and slowly an extremely cold flow will push first into England and slowly into the east of Ireland. At present it appears it will remain rather settled but there will be increasing chances of snow if the synoptic is allowed to develop.

    Meanwhile, the block as early as Sunday is showing signs of upgrade, with the initial cold blast pushing further west, just pushing into the east coast of Ireland by Sunday afternoon/evening.

    Frontal bands will be attacking from the west with heavy moderate to heavy rain developing countrywide during Saturday night and Sunday. The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.

    The precipitation is expected to stall over the country for up to 48 hours, and we will be watching carefully the output in the coming hours and days to see whether the cold pulse from the east will be enough to turn this to snow.

    I just thought i would throw this out there as is less than 72 hours away and could prove to be very interesting. ;)

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I do love a shinny new thread ,


    Quick question , would this jet stream chart be feeding us with Air from up around greenland ?

    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128383


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Delw has the 29th H2UMrsRobinson has the 30th and Docarch has the 31st of January prebooked for their blizzards.

    The very best of luck to all three of you. You each deserve it. :D

    The <snip> 2nd of Feb is still open for grabs...read my sig! As I can no longer edit the post I will confirm by PM and repost the entire month later on once it is complete by Sunday.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Thanks WC - certainly is looking exciting - knife edge stuff, but the potential seems to be there for a battle. 50 to 100 miles east/west could make the difference between rain and snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,085 ✭✭✭highdef


    The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.

    Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Wonder what the south east will get from this


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Looks like we are getting closer to the light at the end of the east facing tunnel

    UKMO is still holding out on a SW for Ireland at 96hrs. But t00z is an upgrade for the UK from t12z.

    Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Nabber wrote: »
    Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?

    I think it's way too early to say - as ever with Ireland, when it gets closer to the time, it will be nowcast stuff.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
    from our own MET ?

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

    At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



    UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

    The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    highdef wrote: »
    Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?

    Cold moves WEST. Rain moves EAST.

    They MEET. Where they meet = SNOW!

    They may meet over Wales or over the Aran Islands. That is what Weathercheck covered in their first post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
    from our own MET ?

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

    At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



    UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

    The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

    indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    These two charts illistate how much of a knife edge the situation is one ,

    If the cold moves a little further West its game on , If its stay's as modeled I think its a non runner for the earlier stages of this event.

    There is plenty of Precip , would evaporative cooling come into play at all or would the Air mass be to warm for that to have any effect ?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Most of Britain, especially the east coast will deffo start to feel the chill Sunday night and early Monday morning, it's just watching the charts to see if "Cooper" can win out against anything the Atlantic has to throw at it and make it as far as us.

    I'm just excited the easterly even made it as far as it has. If it is strong enough to hold its own, and the direction is good, then next week could be fun.

    Sure we'll wait and see. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..

    i thought that was today's update but in fact is yesterdays! a lot has changed overnight in the models since then so would expect it to be more positive about the cold.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    It wont take too much of Shift west from the cold , the DP's are nearly there , lets be having you cold :D

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    highdef wrote: »
    Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?

    No the rain is coming from the west, cold from the east. Clashing over the Irish sea :mad: If the cold air wins it will eventually push it back west but it's pushing east to begin with.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    i thought that was today's update but in fact is yesterdays! a lot has changed overnight in the models since then so would expect it to be more positive about the cold.

    Sorry folks my bad , I had looked at days 1-2 and 3-5 and they were updated today but the ones I posted were from Yesterday , my apologies :o


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    No the rain is coming from the west, cold from the east. Clashing over the Irish sea :mad: If the cold air wins it will eventually push it back west but it's pushing east to begin with.

    The preference would be for the cold to move west and for the two air masses to meet slap bang over the middle of us so everyone gets something form it


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Sorry folks my bad , I had looked at days 1-2 and 3-5 and they were updated today but the ones I posted were from Yesterday , my apologies :o

    you had me worried as was expecting a more positive forecast from them even if still a lot of uncertainty.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Not looking to shabby from the AO, I would be even happier if the NAO was not trending back slightly positive on the 14 day forecast .

    AO

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    NAO

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Here is the updated one from UK MET

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

    Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

    Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

    They have not updated 1-5 or 16-30 yet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Here you go PistolPete, not too different to yesterday but a bit more positive in terms of snow potential and cold.

    'UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:
    Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.
    Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012'


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Here is the updated one from UK MET

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

    Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

    Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

    They have not updated 1-5 or 16-30 yet

    Snap!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 347 ✭✭quietriot


    If it's not coming in extreme quantities like they saw in Europe recently it can feck right off until next year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Wow! I was not expecting this upgrade this morning from the models and the cold showing up on the east coast around 72hrs on GFS also on ECM mean. I am very surprised this morning after looking at the charts. I feel a bit of a tool today after posting "Bye Bye Baby" last night.:rolleyes: O ya please dont tell the Misses she back!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hi folks,

    Three points to make. Firstly good charts this morning but still room for upgrades or downgrades. I am sticking to my view that whilst the upper level severe cold may take a number of days to reach us it is being packaged and mailed to our address...the deliverer is just having problems finding the house. Strong Scandinavian High will surely now remain intact despite attacks from the Southwest Azores ridge. Jet Stream profile is increasingly conducive but not quite there yet. GEM, ECM and to an extent the GFS have opened the door not only for heights to lower under the block from the East propagating cold toward us but the prospect of an undercut of it from the Atlantic forcing the coldest air West.

    Secondly - agree with the OP there is a snow risk on Monday in particular in the East but it remains to be seen how active the front will be. Watching that intently in the next 24hrs.

    Thirdly - make no mistake about it even though the very cold 850 temps might take a few days to reach us this is very cold flow off the continent at the surface. Daytime temperatures are really going to struggle from Monday and whether or not it snows on Monday there is a risk of dangerous driving conditions as the wet ground freezes in many areas. Increasingly severe frosts aswell.

    Alot to keep an eye on. Enjoy! BBL.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

    It's getting more real now. Temps beginning to tumble in eastern europe, well below zero maximums.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    and a further update for you pistolpete and all others:

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:
    Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. At the same time westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and sometimes snow on hills. Temperatures will probably be below average, and windchill will make it feel colder still when exposed to the easterly winds. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather seems likely. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with central and eastern areas being most prone. However, milder conditions may well push into the north and west at times.
    Updated: 1230 on Fri 27 Jan 2012


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    I thought one of you might have posted the UKMO cold weather alert already,but here it is.
    Important bits bolded :D

    Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England

    Issued at: Friday 27 January 2012 at 10:05


    There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather between 1800 on Sunday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


    It is expected to gradually turn colder over the weekend and into next week as high pressure builds allowing winds to turn easterly. The transition to a cold but more settled weather pattern next week may be preceded with a period of sleet or snow later on Sunday and Monday across some western or central areas but there remains uncertainty in detail. The next couple of nights will also see an overnight frost in many areas with some icy patches forming on untreated surfaces, particularly tonight in northern and western areas. There is a good chance that this alert will be extended beyond 0900 Tuesday over the coming days.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/162884789949579264/photo/1

    @BigJoeBastardi
    Severe cold envelops Europe as global temp continues plummet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp


    Icelandic website shows the that the potential is there for a 1982 type event- :D

    Look at precipitation charts/850 temps for sunday midday til monday midday- Great potential- especially if we have some upgrades. Dew point/temp need to play ball too.




    Dan :cool:


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