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27-01-2012, 11:11   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

Well the overall synoptic for the next 10 days is very uncertain.

However there is growing consensus that it will turn colder and much more settled. There is chance as the period progresses that a pulse of very cold air from the east could force west across Ireland. Southern England will be more at risk of the intense cold.

A massive Siberian block is forcing west and as early as Sunday is making its presence felt by pushing an initial cold pool west. After this there is growing uncertainty but a good chance that the block will advance further during Wednesday February 1st and slowly an extremely cold flow will push first into England and slowly into the east of Ireland. At present it appears it will remain rather settled but there will be increasing chances of snow if the synoptic is allowed to develop.

Meanwhile, the block as early as Sunday is showing signs of upgrade, with the initial cold blast pushing further west, just pushing into the east coast of Ireland by Sunday afternoon/evening.

Frontal bands will be attacking from the west with heavy moderate to heavy rain developing countrywide during Saturday night and Sunday. The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.

The precipitation is expected to stall over the country for up to 48 hours, and we will be watching carefully the output in the coming hours and days to see whether the cold pulse from the east will be enough to turn this to snow.

I just thought i would throw this out there as is less than 72 hours away and could prove to be very interesting.




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27-01-2012, 11:26   #2
pistolpetes11
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I do love a shinny new thread ,


Quick question , would this jet stream chart be feeding us with Air from up around greenland ?

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27-01-2012, 11:27   #3
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Delw has the 29th H2UMrsRobinson has the 30th and Docarch has the 31st of January prebooked for their blizzards.

The very best of luck to all three of you. You each deserve it.

The <snip> 2nd of Feb is still open for grabs...read my sig! As I can no longer edit the post I will confirm by PM and repost the entire month later on once it is complete by Sunday.

Last edited by Sponge Bob; 27-01-2012 at 11:43. Reason: oterra grabbed the first
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27-01-2012, 11:29   #4
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Thanks WC - certainly is looking exciting - knife edge stuff, but the potential seems to be there for a battle. 50 to 100 miles east/west could make the difference between rain and snow.
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27-01-2012, 11:31   #5
highdef
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Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.
Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?
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27-01-2012, 11:32   #6
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Wonder what the south east will get from this
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27-01-2012, 11:33   #7
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Looks like we are getting closer to the light at the end of the east facing tunnel

UKMO is still holding out on a SW for Ireland at 96hrs. But t00z is an upgrade for the UK from t12z.

Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?
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27-01-2012, 11:36   #8
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Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?
I think it's way too early to say - as ever with Ireland, when it gets closer to the time, it will be nowcast stuff.
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27-01-2012, 11:37   #9
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Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
from our own MET ?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.
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27-01-2012, 11:37   #10
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Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?
Cold moves WEST. Rain moves EAST.

They MEET. Where they meet = SNOW!

They may meet over Wales or over the Aran Islands. That is what Weathercheck covered in their first post.
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27-01-2012, 11:44   #11
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Originally Posted by pistolpetes11 View Post
Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
from our own MET ?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.
indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..
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27-01-2012, 11:45   #12
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These two charts illistate how much of a knife edge the situation is one ,

If the cold moves a little further West its game on , If its stay's as modeled I think its a non runner for the earlier stages of this event.

There is plenty of Precip , would evaporative cooling come into play at all or would the Air mass be to warm for that to have any effect ?



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27-01-2012, 11:45   #13
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Most of Britain, especially the east coast will deffo start to feel the chill Sunday night and early Monday morning, it's just watching the charts to see if "Cooper" can win out against anything the Atlantic has to throw at it and make it as far as us.

I'm just excited the easterly even made it as far as it has. If it is strong enough to hold its own, and the direction is good, then next week could be fun.

Sure we'll wait and see.
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27-01-2012, 11:48   #14
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indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..
i thought that was today's update but in fact is yesterdays! a lot has changed overnight in the models since then so would expect it to be more positive about the cold.
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27-01-2012, 11:50   #15
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It wont take too much of Shift west from the cold , the DP's are nearly there , lets be having you cold

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