Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

ninebeanrows

Well the overall synoptic for the next 10 days is very uncertain.

However there is growing consensus that it will turn colder and much more settled. There is chance as the period progresses that a pulse of very cold air from the east could force west across Ireland. Southern England will be more at risk of the intense cold.

A massive Siberian block is forcing west and as early as Sunday is making its presence felt by pushing an initial cold pool west. After this there is growing uncertainty but a good chance that the block will advance further during Wednesday February 1st and slowly an extremely cold flow will push first into England and slowly into the east of Ireland. At present it appears it will remain rather settled but there will be increasing chances of snow if the synoptic is allowed to develop.

Meanwhile, the block as early as Sunday is showing signs of upgrade, with the initial cold blast pushing further west, just pushing into the east coast of Ireland by Sunday afternoon/evening.

Frontal bands will be attacking from the west with heavy moderate to heavy rain developing countrywide during Saturday night and Sunday. The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.

The precipitation is expected to stall over the country for up to 48 hours, and we will be watching carefully the output in the coming hours and days to see whether the cold pulse from the east will be enough to turn this to snow.

I just thought i would throw this out there as is less than 72 hours away and could prove to be very interesting.

pistolpetes11

I do love a shinny new thread ,


Quick question , would this jet stream chart be feeding us with Air from up around greenland ?

Sponge Bob

Delw has the 29th H2UMrsRobinson has the 30th and Docarch has the 31st of January prebooked for their blizzards.

The very best of luck to all three of you. You each deserve it.

The <snip> 2nd of Feb is still open for grabs...read my sig! As I can no longer edit the post I will confirm by PM and repost the entire month later on once it is complete by Sunday.

DOCARCH

Thanks WC - certainly is looking exciting - knife edge stuff, but the potential seems to be there for a battle. 50 to 100 miles east/west could make the difference between rain and snow.

highdef

Weathercheck wrote: »

The rain will make painstaking progress eastward during Sunday and as the cold air from the east undercuts the rain it is possible it will turn to snow, at first over far eastern districts but then moving west.

Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?

only one

Wonder what the south east will get from this

Nabber

Looks like we are getting closer to the light at the end of the east facing tunnel

UKMO is still holding out on a SW for Ireland at 96hrs. But t00z is an upgrade for the UK from t12z.

Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?

DOCARCH

Nabber wrote: »

Looking at the current model runs, will there be enough cold to turn the system moving from the west into snow at sea level for any part of Ireland?

I think it's way too early to say - as ever with Ireland, when it gets closer to the time, it will be nowcast stuff.

pistolpetes11

Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
from our own MET ?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

Sponge Bob

highdef wrote: »

Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?

Cold moves WEST. Rain moves EAST.

They MEET. Where they meet = SNOW!

They may meet over Wales or over the Aran Islands. That is what Weathercheck covered in their first post.

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Latest Updates from the UK MET , when can we expect the latest guidance
from our own MET ?

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.



UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.

indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..

pistolpetes11

These two charts illistate how much of a knife edge the situation is one ,

If the cold moves a little further West its game on , If its stay's as modeled I think its a non runner for the earlier stages of this event.

There is plenty of Precip , would evaporative cooling come into play at all or would the Air mass be to warm for that to have any effect ?

Strangegravy

Most of Britain, especially the east coast will deffo start to feel the chill Sunday night and early Monday morning, it's just watching the charts to see if "Cooper" can win out against anything the Atlantic has to throw at it and make it as far as us.

I'm just excited the easterly even made it as far as it has. If it is strong enough to hold its own, and the direction is good, then next week could be fun.

Sure we'll wait and see.

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

indicates the uncertainty but they don't have the colder weather pushing too far west as yet. i suppose they just don't know yet..

i thought that was today's update but in fact is yesterdays! a lot has changed overnight in the models since then so would expect it to be more positive about the cold.

pistolpetes11

It wont take too much of Shift west from the cold , the DP's are nearly there , lets be having you cold

Speak Now

highdef wrote: »

Thanks for that Weathercheck. The only bit that seems wrong is that you say the rain will move east. Don't you mean move west?

No the rain is coming from the west, cold from the east. Clashing over the Irish sea :mad: If the cold air wins it will eventually push it back west but it's pushing east to begin with.

pistolpetes11

munsterlegend wrote: »

i thought that was today's update but in fact is yesterdays! a lot has changed overnight in the models since then so would expect it to be more positive about the cold.

Sorry folks my bad , I had looked at days 1-2 and 3-5 and they were updated today but the ones I posted were from Yesterday , my apologies

pistolpetes11

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

No the rain is coming from the west, cold from the east. Clashing over the Irish sea :mad: If the cold air wins it will eventually push it back west but it's pushing east to begin with.

The preference would be for the cold to move west and for the two air masses to meet slap bang over the middle of us so everyone gets something form it

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sorry folks my bad , I had looked at days 1-2 and 3-5 and they were updated today but the ones I posted were from Yesterday , my apologies

you had me worried as was expecting a more positive forecast from them even if still a lot of uncertainty.

pistolpetes11

Not looking to shabby from the AO, I would be even happier if the NAO was not trending back slightly positive on the 14 day forecast .

AO



NAO

pistolpetes11

Here is the updated one from UK MET

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

They have not updated 1-5 or 16-30 yet

munsterlegend

Here you go PistolPete, not too different to yesterday but a bit more positive in terms of snow potential and cold.

'UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:
Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.
Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012'

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Here is the updated one from UK MET

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:

Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and some hill snow. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from the east. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

They have not updated 1-5 or 16-30 yet

Snap!

quietriot

If it's not coming in extreme quantities like they saw in Europe recently it can feck right off until next year.

hotwhiskey

Wow! I was not expecting this upgrade this morning from the models and the cold showing up on the east coast around 72hrs on GFS also on ECM mean. I am very surprised this morning after looking at the charts. I feel a bit of a tool today after posting "Bye Bye Baby" last night.:rolleyes: O ya please dont tell the Misses she back!

darkman2

Hi folks,

Three points to make. Firstly good charts this morning but still room for upgrades or downgrades. I am sticking to my view that whilst the upper level severe cold may take a number of days to reach us it is being packaged and mailed to our address...the deliverer is just having problems finding the house. Strong Scandinavian High will surely now remain intact despite attacks from the Southwest Azores ridge. Jet Stream profile is increasingly conducive but not quite there yet. GEM, ECM and to an extent the GFS have opened the door not only for heights to lower under the block from the East propagating cold toward us but the prospect of an undercut of it from the Atlantic forcing the coldest air West.

Secondly - agree with the OP there is a snow risk on Monday in particular in the East but it remains to be seen how active the front will be. Watching that intently in the next 24hrs.

Thirdly - make no mistake about it even though the very cold 850 temps might take a few days to reach us this is very cold flow off the continent at the surface. Daytime temperatures are really going to struggle from Monday and whether or not it snows on Monday there is a risk of dangerous driving conditions as the wet ground freezes in many areas. Increasingly severe frosts aswell.

Alot to keep an eye on. Enjoy! BBL.

force eleven

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

It's getting more real now. Temps beginning to tumble in eastern europe, well below zero maximums.

munsterlegend

and a further update for you pistolpete and all others:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012:
Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. At the same time westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and sometimes snow on hills. Temperatures will probably be below average, and windchill will make it feel colder still when exposed to the easterly winds. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather seems likely. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with central and eastern areas being most prone. However, milder conditions may well push into the north and west at times.
Updated: 1230 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

blackius

I thought one of you might have posted the UKMO cold weather alert already,but here it is.
Important bits bolded

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness in one or more regions of England

Issued at: Friday 27 January 2012 at 10:05

There is a 70% probability of severe cold weather between 1800 on Sunday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

It is expected to gradually turn colder over the weekend and into next week as high pressure builds allowing winds to turn easterly. The transition to a cold but more settled weather pattern next week may be preceded with a period of sleet or snow later on Sunday and Monday across some western or central areas but there remains uncertainty in detail. The next couple of nights will also see an overnight frost in many areas with some icy patches forming on untreated surfaces, particularly tonight in northern and western areas. There is a good chance that this alert will be extended beyond 0900 Tuesday over the coming days.

blackius

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/162884789949579264/photo/1

@BigJoeBastardi
Severe cold envelops Europe as global temp continues plummet

BLIZZARD7

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp


Icelandic website shows the that the potential is there for a 1982 type event-

Look at precipitation charts/850 temps for sunday midday til monday midday- Great potential- especially if we have some upgrades. Dew point/temp need to play ball too.




Dan :cool:

tzfrantic

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not looking to shabby from the AO, I would be even happier if the NAO was not trending back slightly positive on the 14 day forecast .

AO



NAO

i would not worry about the nao returning postive as it may not happen as it has it going postive and on the next run it went to negative so it still could change

Larbre34

Frequent viewer here, always impressed and grateful for the amount of time people put into interpreting models for the layman! Its gratifying to see those recent forecasts coming to bear, even if the timescale has been a nightmare, even for the pros

ME have considerably revised their Outlook for next week, will be interesting to see whether Gerry or Evelyn are deployed on RTE weather to deliver the bad (good) news!

The battleground scenario will no doubt get very interesting, could be as productive as it is disruptive. Looking forward to the Boardsies nowcasts to see whats what over the next while

pistolpetes11

Met Update

27 January 2012 11:45

Today
Sunny spells and scattered rain and hail showers this afternoon, most frequent and heaviest over Ulster and north Leinster. They'll gradually die out through the evening. It will be cold highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees and fresh west to northwest winds.

Tonight

Tonight will be very cold and frosty as temperatures fall to between zero and minus 3 degrees. Some mist and fog patches may form also. Thickening cloud will bring drizzle to Atlantic coasts towards dawn.



Tomorrow

Tomorrow will start off cold and mainly dry. There'll be some bright or sunny spells in the east. Rain and drizzle will spread across the western half of the country through the morning and will extend to eastern areas through the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures will range from 4 to 6 degrees in the east and north, and from 7 to 10 degree in the west and South.

Outlook

The week ahead looks like it will become much colder again.

Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

Thursday looks mainly dry at the moment with rain moving down across the country on Friday followed by a cold and frosty night Friday night.

pistolpetes11

A little screen record of a snow acum chart from that 6Z run of the GFS , I might be tempting faith here !

Plus these charts are known not to be very accurate


PS its my first time doing a clip like this , Il have it include the days and dates next time !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHUn7R6xVHw

munsterlegend

The Uk Met Office extended outlook:

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:
Cold weather looks likely during this period, with both daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average in southern areas, and still below average in the north. Rainfall amounts should be around average in northern areas, with some snow at times. Further south rainfall is likely to be above average with some prolonged spells of rain possible, with also a risk of some significant falls of snow. Sunshine amounts will probably be around or slightly above average.
Updated: 1407 on Fri 27 Jan 2012

TheMilkyPirate

If that cold shifts about 100-150 miles west before sunday it could be fun on the east coast.

Biting my tongue but the westward march of the cold continues.

Larbre34

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/snow-chance-of-a-big-freeze-forecasters-say-3001820.html

Newspapers are so yesterdays news - Deirdre Lowe could be eating that with chips......

munsterlegend

baraca wrote: »

If that cold shifts about 100-150 miles west before sunday it could be fun on the east coast.

Biting my tongue but the westward march of the cold continues.

if i picked 6 numbers on saturday night...but i believe!

ninebeanrows

I find these charts good for pin pointing the cold boundary.

Here it is @ 48 hours

We need the dark blue boundary to push in over the east coast in future runs



And @ 72 hours

TheMilkyPirate

munsterlegend wrote: »

if i picked 6 numbers on saturday night...but i believe!

Aye, But your lotto numbers haven't been trending to come up now have they?

:pac:

cherryghost

The cold air has been slowly shifting westward in the last few phases, surely its only a matter of time before we might have something on the board for most of the country, even if the west only sees it for a short while. Either way the East is looking very pretty for about 10cm+ of snowfall IF the charts go the preferred way.

Will be booking a train to Dublin on Sunday :P IMO the definitive chart for the weekend will be the 06Z on Saturday. More interestingly is that for the first week in Feb we might see a cold air mass stall over Ireland while the Atlantic keeps on feeding in other systems, so even if the weekend doesn't pull off, next week has plenty of POTENTIAL.

ninebeanrows

I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

5c/3c at first then......

4c/2c........

then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

2c/0c, rain peters out.

1c/0c, frosty night

darkman2

Although meteorologists were tracking a "Siberian chill" blowing in from the west that could bring snowstorms to much of the eastern UK this weekend,

Perhaps the author(s) in the Indo should take some geography lessons. Yesterdays ECM would taken at face value indeed have indicated a near miss. This is no longer the case.

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

5c/3c at first then......

4c/2c........

then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

2c/0c, rain peters out.

1c/0c, frosty night

That's realism WC! No place for that in here....thank you!

Trotter

Ive got my shorts and flip flops ready for February. In fact.. If it snows at my house I'll happily post a photo here of my shorts and flip flops in the snow. Im that confident because Ive been at this point so often before and Im not letting myself get excited at all.

Now go get those catalogues out.. we've lawnmowers to buy.

blackius

darkman2 wrote: »

Perhaps the author(s) in the Indo should take some geography lessons. Yesterdays ECM would taken at face value indeed have indicated a near miss. This is no longer the case.

You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

No mention of any upcoming cold either.

darkman2

First out of the blocks - 12z DWD has a slight upgrade - the trend continues

Sunday







Monday

darkman2

blackius wrote: »

You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

No mention of any upcoming cold either.

What do you think? :pac:

blackius

Well I think if theres a risk of snow,why on earth don't they mention it on their tv forecasts.

DOCARCH

blackius wrote: »

You might be interested to know that Siobhán Ryan on RTE one just now,who's not just a weather presenter but actual met Éireann has the East in heavy rain on sunday,+9c and light south west winds...

No mention of any upcoming cold either.

They all seem to do their own thing in there?

The 11.45am update on the Met E website still has this outlook:

Monday next looks cloudy and wet with the risk of some wintry falls in the East.

Tuesday and Wednesday look like they will bring some rain at times mainly to Western areas with drier but much colder weather in the East. Nights will be cold with frost in many places and the risk of icy patches.

I just hope Evelyn is on for the weekend, if she can, she will make it snow.