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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

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1…34689…34

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    #152
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    jo06555 wrote: »
    Met eireann on 9 news dont give nothing over the next 7 days apart from rain and more rain :(

    They didn't go beyond Monday so hardly 7 day forecast. A lot of rain for the east on Sunday was the main point.


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    #153
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    jo06555 wrote: »
    Met eireann on 9 news dont give nothing over the next 7 days apart from rain and more rain :(

    They didn't go beyond Monday so hardly 7 day forecast. A lot of rain for the east on Sunday was the main point.
    They did a bit,siobhan said 4 or 5 c during the week and dry...


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    #154
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    jo06555 wrote: »
    Met eireann on 9 news dont give nothing over the next 7 days apart from rain and more rain :(

    They didn't go beyond Monday so hardly 7 day forecast. A lot of rain for the east on Sunday was the main point.

    I taught at the end the charts showed rain each day up to thurs ?? Maybe I was mistaken we live in hope I was ;)


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    #155
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    jo06555 wrote: »
    I taught at the end the charts showed rain each day up to thurs ?? Maybe I was mistaken we live in hope I was ;)

    They are not going to say too much until fairly sure anyway. the trend is colder but to what degree and where/when is very unclear.


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    #156
    rainbowdash
    Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    Was it last week I saw RTE tipping -8 degrees and it never happened, so once bitten twice shy and all that - a bit like these threads, there comes a point when there is no point talking about it until if and when it happens.


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    #157
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Shouldn't be saying anything this early, But the block seems further east so far


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    #158
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECMWF's 12z ens out and not much change in them: Ireland always in the middle.

    168hrs chart:
    190153.png

    Neither cold nor mild. The odd weak front skirting up the west coast. Not much wind. A weather enthusiast's dream! :cool:


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    #159
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    ECMWF's 12z ens out and not much change in them: Ireland always in the middle.

    168hrs chart:


    Neither cold nor mild. The odd weak front skirting up the west coast. Not much wind. A weather enthusiast's dream! :cool:

    Foaming at the mouth here!

    But Fukin hell that 12z GFS is something else :O


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    #160
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    I don't think there will be any snow on Sunday or Monday.


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    #161
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    18Z GFS: Heeerrrreee weeee goooo AGAIN!!!!!
    220px-Millennium_Force1_CP.JPG
    :D:D:D:D:D


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    #162
    yorlum11
    Registered Users Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    Cold progressing westwards faster on 18z at 144-155


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    #163
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    18z seems to be following in the 12zs footsteps...

    Could the ECM have been a bit too progressive? Haven't seen the ensembles was it a mild outlier?

    EDIT: That is some serious cold heading west.


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    #164
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    another upgrade on GFS 18z

    h500slp.png


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    #165
    alfa beta
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    Mouthwatering stuff on the GFS 18z......-12s over us from 156 hours......could it verify??......who knows!!....but hey, this is the rollercoaster we've been queueing for since November!


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    #166
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    baraca wrote: »
    18z seems to be following in the 12zs footsteps...

    Could the ECM have been a bit too progressive? Haven't seen the ensembles was it a mild outlier?

    EDIT: That is some serious cold heading west.
    Just had a look and :eek: :eek: :eek:

    Pressure stays very high though which is why the gf's isn't modeling heavy precipitation.
    folks on NW are losing the run of themselves and not factoring that in.
    Pressure that high is no shower nirvana.


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    #167
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    I have been living in Mayo for near 68 years now and I can remember countless situations like the one we in now... the cold trying to get in but the warmer Atlantic keeping it to our east. I am still sticking to my guns that there will be no snow this week or indeed until whatever next Winter throws at us... It will be a bit cold and frosty and maybe some snow on the hills but for the vast majority of people it will bring nothing more than a few sleety showers next week. Hard to go into detail but the mountain behind me is a very deep bluish colour, old folks round here always maintained that if it is that colour in January then a very mild spring is on the cards. I have tested it out on numerous times and found it is a good sign alright. So my unconventional (as my grandson says) methods may not be popular here as it mentions no snow but I cant see more than a few flakes at most on hills....


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    #168
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    blackius wrote: »
    Just had a look and :eek: :eek: :eek:

    Pressure stays very high though which is why the gf's isn't modeling heavy precipitation.
    folks on NW are losing the run of themselves and not factoring that in.
    Pressure that high is no shower nirvana.

    ..and we need snow if the temperatures are going to freeze the ground rock solid, otherwise burnt grass.

    A neighbour said to be a few weeks back that there is a saying that January grass is never eaten, hope he is wrong.


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    #169
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    I have been living in Mayo for near 68 years now and I can remember countless situations like the one we in now... the cold trying to get in but the warmer Atlantic keeping it to our east. I am still sticking to my guns that there will be no snow this week or indeed until whatever next Winter throws at us... It will be a bit cold and frosty and maybe some snow on the hills but for the vast majority of people it will bring nothing more than a few sleety showers next week. Hard to go into detail but the mountain behind me is a very deep bluish colour, old folks round here always maintained that if it is that colour in January then a very mild spring is on the cards. I have tested it out on numerous times and found it is a good sign alright. So my unconventional (as my grandson says) methods may not be popular here as it mentions no snow but I cant see more than a few flakes at most on hills....

    If I hear hills or higher ground once more ill burst,go away bad news barer :)

    Any updates from mt as I havnt been on all week?


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    #170
    alfa beta
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    This evening's 18z also fizzles out much quicker than the 12z in FI as the Atlantic sweeps back in rather easily.

    I guess it's gonna be the start of next week (at the earliest) before we'll know whether a serious piece of cold is on the way and whether there's any potential for it to last.


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    #171
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    If I hear hills or higher ground once more ill burst,go away bad news barer :)

    Any updates from mt as I havnt been on all week?

    Entitled to his views as much as everyone else ,

    Personally I dont buy into the nature signs and all that Jazz but everyone to there own


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    #172
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Dear me :D

    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128521


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    #173
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    A chart I wouldn't mind seeing verifying:

    h850t850eu.png

    Only in a set up like that can you get strong to gale force winds with temperature below freezing. Last time I remember something like this happening was back in the 90's sometime. Very bracing and not for the faint hearted. Everything is just zapped dry. This is a true easterly. Bring it on. (not that it will :rolleyes:)


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    #174
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    alfa beta wrote: »
    This evening's 18z also fizzles out much quicker than the 12z in FI as the Atlantic sweeps back in rather easily.

    I guess it's gonna be the start of next week (at the earliest) before we'll know whether a serious piece of cold is on the way and whether there's any potential for it to last.

    Once we get cold or snowcover in place that will change , anything outside 96Hrs is FI , even the massively brilliantly cold charts


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    #175
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Just discussing the run but pressure that high will considerably weaken convection meaning counties on the east coast only.
    People on NW are talking rubbish saying otherwise for England and the same applies here.
    It's academic anyway as this beyond 96 IS fi.


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    #176
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    Although I use nature to forecast I am interested in conventional forecasts and may disagree from time to time but am not dismissive of them. Can I ask 2 things..... what is FI? And what is the dam....as in dam 520??


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    #177
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    I have been living in Mayo for near 68 years now and I can remember countless situations like the one we in now... the cold trying to get in but the warmer Atlantic keeping it to our east. I am still sticking to my guns that there will be no snow this week or indeed until whatever next Winter throws at us... It will be a bit cold and frosty and maybe some snow on the hills but for the vast majority of people it will bring nothing more than a few sleety showers next week. Hard to go into detail but the mountain behind me is a very deep bluish colour, old folks round here always maintained that if it is that colour in January then a very mild spring is on the cards. I have tested it out on numerous times and found it is a good sign alright. So my unconventional (as my grandson says) methods may not be popular here as it mentions no snow but I cant see more than a few flakes at most on hills....

    Your right your not going to see anything but a few flakes on the hills, People on the east coast however will see a lot more.


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    #178
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Although I use nature to forecast I am interested in conventional forecasts and may disagree from time to time but am not dismissive of them. Can I ask 2 things..... what is FI? And what is the dam....as in dam 520??

    Fantasy Island , Charts that are FI have low probability of verifying ,

    DAM link is the thickness level , generally 528 dam is good enough for snow , but around 522 could be needed in some situations,

    One of the lads posted up some good info bout this on the first or second page


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    #179
    Ahorseofaman
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Although I use nature to forecast I am interested in conventional forecasts and may disagree from time to time but am not dismissive of them. Can I ask 2 things..... what is FI? And what is the dam....as in dam 520??
    FI means fantasy island (at this stage anything beyond 48 hrs)dam is better explained by some one more qualified than me ,ie everyone


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    #180
    rKossi
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 85 ✭✭rKossi


    Time to book a holiday to central europe? :P

    Rmgfs1658.gif


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    #181
    doccy
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    baraca wrote: »
    Your right your not going to see anything but a few flakes on the hills, People on the east coast however will see a lot more.

    Actually I don't agree with that. I think this is either going to be an all out snowfest for the Island or the Atlantic will win out. The Beast from the East is all inclusive :)


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