Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

arctictree

GFS 12z a good run. The FI part just goes a bit mad...

As others have said lets see what the ECM brings.

TheMilkyPirate

GEM is agreeing with the GFS out to +144, Will post charts soon

GEM +120



+144



Good signs.

devilabit

GEM looks promising at 144h as well although the undercutter doesn't give us much precipitation because it comes in at a bad angle (to my untrained eyes).

darkman2

Hi all,

GFS/GEM going for a return of Easterly winds in some form as the block reasserts it's posistion to the Northeast and troughs undercut from the Atlantic through later next week.

ECM and UKMO are well split. ECM going for a mid latitude high gradually transferring west allowing cooler Northwesterlies in.

UKMO similar to GFS in that it does (eventually) see the propping up of the block
to the Northeast. But it is the slower evolution.

I am sticking to the return of an Easterly next week although there is also a chance Su Campu's westward drift of the high pressure will come off too (this will happen eventually either way) and perhaps into Greenland allowing a Northerly at some stage.

BEASTERLY

Be very very wary of 12z GFS, very poor ensemble support. For this reason I would expect this scenario to be dropped by Sunday night at the latest. If it doesn't and a lot of ensembles come on board, well...:cool::)

Iancar29

*GOES LOOKS FOR THAT -17 850hp HEAVEN CHART*

Redsunset

Correct BEASTERLY however the trend is south, that's all I look at when viewing those.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Parallel run goes for this

derekon

Just had a quick look at the ECM , which I regard as the most accurate of all the models and I note two important points:

1. That cold air on the continent ain't going anywhere fast

2. ECM is showing a burst of severe cold coming directly from the artic towards the end of next week which then links up with the very cold pool of air already over Europe


Maybe the models will start to show a reload of cold?

Oh, God I swore to myself I would no longer buy tickets for the rollercoaster..........:)

D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

derekon wrote: »

Just had a quick look at the ECM , which I regard as the most accurate of all the models and I note two important points:

1. That cold air on the continent ain't going anywhere fast

2. ECM is showing a burst of severe cold coming directly from the artic towards the end of next week which then links up with the very cold pool of air already over Europe


Maybe the models will start to show a reload of cold?

Oh, God I swore to myself I would no longer buy tickets for the rollercoaster..........:)

D

I know its OT but I think this should be allowed !!!!

Redsunset

The Possible Cold Reload CHAT thread is there for a reason

Su Campu

The stratospheric setup looks like we may be seeing a vortex split within the next week, with two vortices setting up over NE Canada and eastern Asia. This plus the poleward flow through Alaska that I mentioned yesterday look like they may actually help set up a Greenland high around mid month, with a possible link up with, or at least a northward push of, the Azores high. This would support the idea of northerly outbreak for us as the Scandi high gets replaced by cold troughing. Now whether we would lie on the warm side of this outbreak, with the real cold getting into the North Sea and central Europe, like so many times before, remains to be seen.

Nabber

CMC is on board. South easterlies at 126hrs
The easterly at 132hrs


Perhaps the GFS is just a cold outliner. Only to be downgraded as we get closer to 72hrs or completely gone by then.

davidsr20

Guys I think we need to pack it in,winter is finetoe

Su Campu

I think one thing has become clear from this week - people should not automatically assume that an easterly will deliver snow. There seems to be an endless winter-long hunt for easterlies, but in many cases these easterlies by their nature will not deliver anything more than frosty nights and sunny days. This week did not deliver due to the strong inversion and low dewpoints - yes, low dewpoints. If dewpoints had been higher there would actually have been an increased risk of snow, but parcel trajectories were on the wrong side of the inversion for anything more than the stratocumulus we got.

I think this thread is approaching its end of life....

Redsunset

OK fresh thread then,
Locking this