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07-12-2011, 23:11   #1
 
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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

As Thursday's storm has yet to fully develop, it will pass us to the north, still bringing some especially stormy conditions to Northern Ireland tomorrow and tomorrow night.

There are good indications of another deeper storm developing under a 180 knot jet streak over the Atlantic late Sunday and taking a more direct path towards Ireland some time on Monday/into Tuesday. There is some uncertainty in the exact timing of its arrival, but with a core pressure of possibly as low as 945 hPa, it should bring stormy conditions with violent gusts to many parts of the country.

As with most rapidly deepening cyclones, the actual path may turn out to be to the left (north) of the current projections, but it is one to keep an eye on.



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Last edited by Su Campu; 07-12-2011 at 23:15.
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08-12-2011, 02:44   #2
TheMilkyPirate
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Slightly off-topic, but yet another rolls in next Thursday



It's track over Ireland still low res but another to keep an eye on.

Funnily enough the word to prove i was human on tinypic while uploading this was disaster
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08-12-2011, 08:24   #3
leahyl
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Originally Posted by baraca View Post
Slightly off-topic, but yet another rolls in next Thursday



It's track over Ireland still low res but another to keep an eye on.

Funnily enough the word to prove i was human on tinypic while uploading this was disaster
I actually hope this one doesn't happen! I have my Christmas night out with work that night!
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08-12-2011, 09:29   #4
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The way the patterns are running this season, one wonders if there is due cause to rename Thursday to Windsday.

Any chance this baby will die down? I've anemophobia (wind phobia) and these things don't make me happy!! Thursday storms are OK as I only work on Thursday evenings when most of these have calmed. However Monday and Tuesday are different
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08-12-2011, 11:23   #5
munsterlegend
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any one have any update on this storm based on the latest charts? it looks like today's event went further north than expected though the models had this system for next week further south.
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08-12-2011, 11:42   #6
maquiladora
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ECM and UKMO showing potential for this still.

GFS is a bit different but then throws in a rare serious storm for the south next Thursday. (I'm sure this will be gone on the next run!)

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08-12-2011, 11:43   #7
leahyl
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Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
ECM and UKMO showing potential for this still.

GFS is a bit different but then throws in a rare serious storm for the south next Thursday. (I'm sure this will be gone on the next run!)

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08-12-2011, 12:05   #8
Sponge Bob
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GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts.
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08-12-2011, 12:08   #9
leahyl
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Originally Posted by Sponge Bob View Post
GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts.
Well in fairness he did indicate that it would probably be gone in the next run

Still, gives the thread a bit of a shock factor!
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08-12-2011, 12:14   #10
maquiladora
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GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts.
Um, you need to take a look at the rest of the models for next week then, almost all showing potential for a deep low close to us.

ECM


UKMO


JMA


NOGAPS


The only difference with the GFS is that it keeps that low further away from Ireland and swings another over us a couple of days later, which as I said will probably be gone in the next run anyway!

Last edited by maquiladora; 08-12-2011 at 12:17.
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08-12-2011, 12:32   #11
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Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!!

POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE
FFS

Because it is all about that potential.

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08-12-2011, 12:35   #12
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Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!!

POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE
FFS

Because it is all about that potential.
Cool story bro.
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08-12-2011, 12:43   #13
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08-12-2011, 12:54   #14
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Originally Posted by Sponge Bob View Post
Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!!

POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE
FFS

Because it is all about that potential.

wouldnt it be funny if this materialised
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08-12-2011, 12:56   #15
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wouldnt it be funny if this materialised
It'd be fecking brilliant that's what it would be!
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