This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

baraca wrote: »

Slightly off-topic, but yet another rolls in next Thursday



It's track over Ireland still low res but another to keep an eye on.

Funnily enough the word to prove i was human on tinypic while uploading this was disaster :pac:

I actually hope this one doesn't happen! I have my Christmas night out with work that night!:D

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM and UKMO showing potential for this still.

GFS is a bit different but then throws in a rare serious storm for the south next Thursday. (I'm sure this will be gone on the next run!)

:eek::eek:

Sponge Bob wrote: »

GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts.

Well in fairness he did indicate that it would probably be gone in the next run:)

Still, gives the thread a bit of a shock factor!

:P

fits wrote: »

wouldnt it be funny if this materialised

It'd be fecking brilliant that's what it would be!:D

baraca wrote: »

I'd probably wizz in my pants if this came off, Pity it's a week out.



Maq how come the wind speed map you posted is showing stronger wind speeds yet it's from the same run?

The one you posted shows mean winds, the one I posted shows gusts.

GFZ 12z still showing this low (940mb) for early next week.
Just north enough to keep us on the map!

Although the ECM 120hr chart would bring widespread gales and severe gales.

I dont think it would pack that real punch as it is matured, although a secondary could form to squeeze the isobars and creates something extreme.

Needs close watching.

Also as the low arrives the gradient does tighten up ahead of the fronts up the Irish sea which would bring some severe gales.

This is a rare and volatile pattern developing where a large pool of unusually cold water in the mid-Atlantic is likely to reinforce a very strong jet stream aimed directly at Ireland and Britain (see, I'm learning) as illustrated by the very latest SST observations:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.12.8.2011.gif

The storm in question develops at the most energetic point in the lunar cycle, after the double peak of full moon and northern max (which are separated by about 24h at this point). As I've mentioned before with regard to the research, there is a strong low pressure signal at winter full and new moon but more importantly, the lunar energy tends to be constrained by the large-scale pattern so if we were seeing a weak jet stream or a split flow or even a raging southwest flow into the Norwegian Sea, this energy peak would not be of great concern for Ireland.

As things stand, the models have been trending towards a very strong storm outcome and track is of course dependent on central pressure in terms of how much of a high impact storm it would be. A 970 mb low (today's earlier value as the storm crossed 10W) would have considerably less impact than a 945 mb low on the same track.

People commented that today's storm went further north than the models, which may be the case but in the past few years, this track has become almost a standard route for low pressure, it may be somewhat further north than climatology because of a gradual northward shift of the grid. However, all depends on where the polar vortex sets up in the wake of today's storm. Since we are now approaching 96 hours to storm onset, the 00z model run should begin to clarify the scenario. The extreme winds of 70-80 knots in the wake of the storm today (I have decided that the ship reports earlier were probably realistic given the location and satellite imagery) may have shifted the SST anomaly pattern more towards a linkup of the central Atlantic and Faeroes cold pools leaving the Biscay warm anomaly intact. This really spells trouble for Ireland and Britain and the Monday-Tuesday event is probably the most likely to deliver as the Friday 16th energy is beginning to show a southward drift on model runs and may turn into a problem for France.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Surprised no new comments, 00z models were aggressive enough, but 06z GFS has 942 mb low in Donegal Bay 00-03h Tuesday and a gradient wind of about 60 knots sustained with potential for gusts to 90-100 knots, in all exposed locations. Time frame keep in mind is now 84h.

This cannot upgrade more than 10 knots so we'll be watching for signs of reliable fixed track and intensity now. It makes sense from both large-scale and research perspectives. And I rather hope it's wrong since it would do considerable if not enormous damage. Galway Bay storm surge would be one obvious risk, let's hope this solution is too extreme.

Everyone could be too scared to comment !! :eek:

This is sounding more ominous by the day:eek:

If the storm came off exactly as depicted on these charts, I would expect maximum wind gusts near 90 knots, and close to 70 knots even as far south as Valentia. Sub-950 mb centre would be one indicator, very steep lapse rate below 925 mbs due to ocean modification would contribute also. However the bigger question for me is whether these models are even close yet to the solution. We've seen big windstorms go "pear shaped" at this time range before. Anyway, would imagine we won't have any debates about ship reports if this comes off because no ship will be anywhere near this baby.

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Met Eireann not concerned at this point. They mentioned 'storm' for Tuesday in yesterday's report but just 'windy' today

"Heavy rain will spread from the west during the second half of the day and it will be a wet and windy Monday evening. Tuesday is another cold, windy and very showery day right across the country."

Was just gonna mention that WolfeIRE - Met Eireann don't seem to be worried at all! Just being cautious at the moment maybe. It is still 3 days away after all