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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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12467…37

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    #92
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    If this system was to shift further south it would raise the prospect of snowfall for many.

    Just wondering why this may be? Living in Newry and was expecting to get some with tha last system but just got mountain snow. Can anyone tell me why we may get some snow with this next system?


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    #93
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Winger_PL wrote: »
    I still have it in Maynooth, wondering what's the best way to pass it on to you?

    Oh, thought you had run away from the country by now. I won't be in Maynooth until Christmas.


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    #94
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    justy182 wrote: »
    Just wondering why this may be? Living in Newry and was expecting to get some with tha last system but just got mountain snow. Can anyone tell me why we may get some snow with this next system?

    If the system he's talking about moved further south, it would pull in much colder air from the north atlantic.


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    #95
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    WHO CHANGED THIS THREAD NAME!?!....


    I'd be happy if i didnt hav to suffer Myocardial infarction thank you very much!!....


    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    :pac:

    EDIT :WOOPS... i ... eh.... THINK my eyes are playing GAMES!!!


    FOr a min there i thought the title was changed to.. " SNOW Storm Possible" ................! ... Must be the Pepsi Max.. :pac:


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    #96
    justy182
    Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭justy182


    nacho libre wrote: »
    If the system he's talking about moved further south, it would pull in much colder air from the north atlantic.

    Gotcha. Thanks for that.


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    #97
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    WHO CHANGED THIS THREAD NAME!?!....


    I'd be happy if i didnt hav to suffer Myocardial infarction thank you very much!!....


    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    :pac:

    Whah?


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    #98
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 16,978 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Iancar29 wrote: »

    ... Must be the Pepsi Max.. :pac:

    and Morgan's Spiced Rum?


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    #99
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    and Morgan's Spiced Rum?

    Nope.... I DONT Drink .. :rolleyes:

    MAkes the thought even worse as i SERIOUSLY thought i seen it as SNOW! hahaa


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    #100
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    P9 on the 12z GFS ensembles has the storm down between 930 and 935hPa.
    Looks like most of Ireland should be taking a battering from this one.


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    #101
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    P9 on the 12z GFS ensembles has the storm down between 930 and 935hPa.
    Looks like most of Ireland should be taking a battering from this one.

    383165_10150519717161718_631736717_11277935_1687055974_n.jpg
    Me >>>>....

    bart%20scared.gif


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    #102
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ^ I've posted that already in the Fantasy charts threads. ;)


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    #103
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    Ok despite the fact I've had a few "tipples" I really think this one could pull it off for us. Although the fact that I've warned everyone in me local that we're going to get blown out of it on Tuesdy could be a contibuting factor in my presumption! Guinness and Tia Maria is a wonderful combination but has the tendency to induce delusions of meteorological genius!


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    #104
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Considering it's at t96, and many ensembles are going >940hPa, I wouldn't place it in the realms of fantasy any more!


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    #105
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Guys Met Eireann still not predicting anything severe for Monday/Tuesday! Isn't that a bit strange?!


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    #106
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    Guys Met Eireann still not predicting anything severe for Monday/Tuesday! Isn't that a bit strange?!

    Gerry Murphy on the forecast after the six news talked about extremely strong winds and stormy conditions on Tuesday. Check it out on RTE Player. :)


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    #107
    eastmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    leahyl wrote: »
    Guys Met Eireann still not predicting anything severe for Monday/Tuesday! Isn't that a bit strange?!
    they did say a storm for monday -tue after the 6 one news this eve,we will c what they say after 9 news this eve


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    #108
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    maquiladora wrote: »
    leahyl wrote: »
    Guys Met Eireann still not predicting anything severe for Monday/Tuesday! Isn't that a bit strange?!

    Gerry Murphy on the forecast after the six news talked about extremely strong winds and stormy conditions on Tuesday. Check it out on RTE Player. :)

    Cool - I was just goin by their website, will look at forecast after 9 news; should be an interesting one!


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    #109
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Considering it's at t96, and many ensembles are going >940hPa, I wouldn't place it in the realms of fantasy any more!

    The 12Z ECM disagrees with the GFS though, so I'm not too sure about any of the models at the moment let alone individual ensembles.

    18Z GFS out soon, should be interesting.


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    #110
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Just watched Gerry murphys forecast and he mentioned this and said they'd be keeping a very close eye on it


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    #111
    Cantona's Collars
    Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Gerry Murphy "not sure what the system is going to do".

    The graphic at the end of the bulletin gave an ok forecast for Mon/Tue while he said there was potential for very strong winds and rain????


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    #112
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    I'd say if Evelyn had been on it would be the Apocalypse!!


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    #113
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    18z has seriously ramped up this storm for Tuesday.
    In fact if 18z came off it would be the biggest storm to hit our shores since the infamous Christmas one!


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    #114
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    184552.png


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    #115
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The 1998 storm?

    I'd have more confident of this storm being a biggie, if their was cross model agreement. The gfs are notorious for ramping in advance only to downgrade closer to time. It would be great if they are right, but i'm not getting my hopes that they will be.


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    #116
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The 1998 storm?

    I'd have more confident of this storm being a biggie, if their was cross model agreement. The gfs are notorious for ramping in advance only to downgrade closer to time. It would be great if they are right, but i'm not getting my hopes that they will be.

    Ah nacho, as sensible as ever :-P!


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    #117
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS makes it a storm for the south of the country rather than the north.

    Clearly this thing is far from nailed with track changes like this happening now.


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    #118
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    The further south the centre of this storm goes the better is for snow potential in its aftermath. The 18hz GFS has indeed brought the system further south leaving the northwest of the country in the path of potentially very wintry weather.

    I wouldn't pay too much attention at this stage as to where might see wintry weather as the path of this storm is likely to change further again considering this dramatic change in the latest GEFS run. It is worth noting, however, that the further south it tracks the more likely the country will see wintry weather which will be dragged down in its aftermath


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    #119
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The further south the centre of this storm goes the better is for snow potential in its aftermath. The 18hz GFS has indeed brought the system further south.
    Oooo snow For the south?


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    #120
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    And another direct hit on Thurs night
    If it played out like the 18z we would have 2 dangerous storms before Christmas probably causing chaos


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    #121
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    GFS sticking to its guns for both potential storms anyway, ECMWF seems to be alone in not having Tuesday as a powerful storm

    Edit: The second storm even more powerful this time :eek:

    gfs-0-153-3h_fkc0.png


This discussion has been closed.
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