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28-11-2011, 23:07   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

Models are increasingly pointing to the likely development of a very windy and cold period this weekend. Friday will see the gradual ramping up of a west to northwest wind in the 30-50 mph range but it will remain mild enough to prevent snow except perhaps on summits.

By Saturday, the parent low in the region near the Faeroes deepens further and colder air gradually works into the circulation as winds increase further to about 40-60 mph from the west-northwest. The snow line could come down in elevation especially across Donegal, Mayo and other parts of the north and west, to about 300m.

Then by Sunday further development takes place with the low transferring a deep centre southeast across Scotland into the North Sea. This will lead to severe gales in many parts of Ireland and Britain, and it will be cold enough for mixed wintry showers (at sea level, temps will be 3-5 C, at 300m near freezing) of hail and snow -- there could be some heavy snow amounts in northwest facing coastal regions similar to last December's Greenland express although it won't be quite as sustained or intense. As usual in these situations, the effects will be less dramatic towards the east and south but anyone planning to travel to the UK might want to consider the possibility of disruptions to road and air travel due to wind and local snowfalls. It looks particularly bad on the 18z GFS run for Yorkshire and East Anglia with a hurricane force storm in the North Sea. Winds over Ireland are likely to peak at around 50-70 mph given the model run and reasonable subjective tweaking of the output based on second-order factors (such as research energy peaks and sea surface temperatures).

This outlook may be revised rather substantially depending on the output of the more reliable 00z model runs. However, it has been "in the works" for several days and fits the developing global circulation which is seeing widespread intensification of zonal flow combined with an expanding arctic circulation of unusual intensity for this stage of the season.

This trend looks likely to reload around the 10th to 12th when more severe gales may develop at the full moon, with associated storm surge potential (just as a long-distance heads up).
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29-11-2011, 00:19   #2
darkman2
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I fully agree with your forecast MT. A possibly widespread period of snow and strong winds cannot be ruled out especially on Sunday night all though how prolonged any rain to snow event may be is well open to question. There is a very nasty setup brewing next weekend and looks as though we will be on the polar front. Been watching this potential for a couple of days. Will make for interesting observing in the days ahead to see how this works out. Flooding looks possible aswell.


I just have to add this to the thread

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29-11-2011, 00:32   #3
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Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
I fully agree with your forecast MT. A possibly widespread period of snow and strong winds cannot be ruled out especially on Sunday night all though how prolonged any rain to snow event may be is well open to question. There is a very nasty setup brewing next weekend and looks as though we will be on the polar front. Been watching this potential for a couple of days. Will make for interesting observing in the days ahead to see how this works out.


I just have to add this to the thread

What about us south east people?
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29-11-2011, 00:37   #4
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What about us south east people?

It depends on the track and depth of the system. It is too far out to be in anyway accurate about who gets what. But currently it looks a good bet for most even if temporary away from immediate west coasts. That's assuming the cold air is dragged down as quickly as forecast currently to interact with the cold front. Also there may be a period of sleet or snow for some (more likely in the North) ahead of the system. But it really is too far out to be accurate. It really is Sunday and Sunday night into Monday under the spotlight (144hrs away). It's not only any potential wintry weather but the wind potential too and flooding potential.
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29-11-2011, 00:45   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkman2 View Post
It depends on the track and depth of the system. It is too far out to be in anyway accurate about who gets what. But currently it looks a good bet for most even if temporary away from immediate west coasts. That's assuming the cold air is dragged down as quickly as forecast currently to interact with the cold front. Also there may be a period of sleet or snow for some (more likely in the North) ahead of the system. But it really is too far out to be accurate. It really is Sunday and Sunday night into Monday under the spotlight (144hrs away). It's not only any potential wintry weather but the wind potential too and flooding potential.
dosent look like the south will get any looking at 144-hrs on snow check
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29-11-2011, 00:52   #6
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Some charts for Sunday All charts except UKMO in agreement for this weekends weather.









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29-11-2011, 01:01   #7
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Finally some really interesting weather ahead.
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29-11-2011, 01:05   #8
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So basically, there's about a 1% chance of a blizzard in Dublin.

Given all the negative talk of late, I'll take those odds!
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29-11-2011, 01:06   #9
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last year knock had heavy unexpected snow I think it could repeat again.

it was around 4/6c and was forecast for heavy rain but as soon as the heavy blowing wind came in sleet starting falling then slowly turned to snow and the temperature decreased to 0c

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29-11-2011, 01:18   #10
joe199
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Really exciting period ahead finally! BBBBBRRRRRing it on!
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29-11-2011, 01:24   #11
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Finally something of interest to get our teeth into. I don't expect any snow in Waterford but i'm jumping on the first Roller Coaster of the Winter All aboard
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29-11-2011, 01:52   #12
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I doubt Naas will get any but it will be interesting on how it will turn out.

It was like the post I did a week to 2 ago now that the arctic geese have appeared and now a possible threat of snow.

I don't see it happening as Met Eireann has Friday as 12C.

edit: woot post 100.
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29-11-2011, 02:09   #13
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Windy in Dublin with close to zero chance of snow, more interesting in the North West though, wish it was here!
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29-11-2011, 02:22   #14
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32 years living in Donegal and it's finally paying off

Huge amount of rain up here tonight and its been very mild. If there is snow and it lies (at any attitude) i cant see it lasting like last year.
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29-11-2011, 04:51   #15
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0Z GFS showing rain for most of the country Monday with some Wintry stuff in the NW. Bottom chart shows snow potential over much of the country. Bit of a contradiction between the two



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