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Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

  • 28-11-2011 11:07pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Models are increasingly pointing to the likely development of a very windy and cold period this weekend. Friday will see the gradual ramping up of a west to northwest wind in the 30-50 mph range but it will remain mild enough to prevent snow except perhaps on summits.

    By Saturday, the parent low in the region near the Faeroes deepens further and colder air gradually works into the circulation as winds increase further to about 40-60 mph from the west-northwest. The snow line could come down in elevation especially across Donegal, Mayo and other parts of the north and west, to about 300m.

    Then by Sunday further development takes place with the low transferring a deep centre southeast across Scotland into the North Sea. This will lead to severe gales in many parts of Ireland and Britain, and it will be cold enough for mixed wintry showers (at sea level, temps will be 3-5 C, at 300m near freezing) of hail and snow -- there could be some heavy snow amounts in northwest facing coastal regions similar to last December's Greenland express although it won't be quite as sustained or intense. As usual in these situations, the effects will be less dramatic towards the east and south but anyone planning to travel to the UK might want to consider the possibility of disruptions to road and air travel due to wind and local snowfalls. It looks particularly bad on the 18z GFS run for Yorkshire and East Anglia with a hurricane force storm in the North Sea. Winds over Ireland are likely to peak at around 50-70 mph given the model run and reasonable subjective tweaking of the output based on second-order factors (such as research energy peaks and sea surface temperatures).

    This outlook may be revised rather substantially depending on the output of the more reliable 00z model runs. However, it has been "in the works" for several days and fits the developing global circulation which is seeing widespread intensification of zonal flow combined with an expanding arctic circulation of unusual intensity for this stage of the season.

    This trend looks likely to reload around the 10th to 12th when more severe gales may develop at the full moon, with associated storm surge potential (just as a long-distance heads up).


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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I fully agree with your forecast MT. A possibly widespread period of snow and strong winds cannot be ruled out especially on Sunday night all though how prolonged any rain to snow event may be is well open to question. There is a very nasty setup brewing next weekend and looks as though we will be on the polar front. Been watching this potential for a couple of days. Will make for interesting observing in the days ahead to see how this works out. Flooding looks possible aswell.


    I just have to add this to the thread

    icon4.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I fully agree with your forecast MT. A possibly widespread period of snow and strong winds cannot be ruled out especially on Sunday night all though how prolonged any rain to snow event may be is well open to question. There is a very nasty setup brewing next weekend and looks as though we will be on the polar front. Been watching this potential for a couple of days. Will make for interesting observing in the days ahead to see how this works out.


    I just have to add this to the thread

    icon4.gif
    What about us south east people? :(


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    only one wrote: »
    What about us south east people? :(


    It depends on the track and depth of the system. It is too far out to be in anyway accurate about who gets what. But currently it looks a good bet for most even if temporary away from immediate west coasts. That's assuming the cold air is dragged down as quickly as forecast currently to interact with the cold front. Also there may be a period of sleet or snow for some (more likely in the North) ahead of the system. But it really is too far out to be accurate. It really is Sunday and Sunday night into Monday under the spotlight (144hrs away). It's not only any potential wintry weather but the wind potential too and flooding potential.


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    darkman2 wrote: »
    It depends on the track and depth of the system. It is too far out to be in anyway accurate about who gets what. But currently it looks a good bet for most even if temporary away from immediate west coasts. That's assuming the cold air is dragged down as quickly as forecast currently to interact with the cold front. Also there may be a period of sleet or snow for some (more likely in the North) ahead of the system. But it really is too far out to be accurate. It really is Sunday and Sunday night into Monday under the spotlight (144hrs away). It's not only any potential wintry weather but the wind potential too and flooding potential.
    dosent look like the south will get any looking at 144-hrs on snow check


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Some charts for Sunday :) All charts except UKMO in agreement for this weekends weather.

    183006.gif

    183005.gif

    183003.gif

    183007.png

    183008.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Finally some really interesting weather ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,228 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    So basically, there's about a 1% chance of a blizzard in Dublin.

    Given all the negative talk of late, I'll take those odds! :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    last year knock had heavy unexpected snow I think it could repeat again.

    it was around 4/6c and was forecast for heavy rain but as soon as the heavy blowing wind came in sleet starting falling then slowly turned to snow and the temperature decreased to 0c


  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭joe199


    Really exciting period ahead finally! BBBBBRRRRRing it on!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Finally something of interest to get our teeth into. I don't expect any snow in Waterford but i'm jumping on the first Roller Coaster of the Winter :) All aboard


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I doubt Naas will get any but it will be interesting on how it will turn out.

    It was like the post I did a week to 2 ago now that the arctic geese have appeared and now a possible threat of snow.

    I don't see it happening as Met Eireann has Friday as 12C.

    edit: woot post 100.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,286 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Windy in Dublin with close to zero chance of snow, more interesting in the North West though, wish it was here!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,800 ✭✭✭Senna


    32 years living in Donegal and it's finally paying off:D

    Huge amount of rain up here tonight and its been very mild. If there is snow and it lies (at any attitude) i cant see it lasting like last year.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    0Z GFS showing rain for most of the country Monday with some Wintry stuff in the NW. Bottom chart shows snow potential over much of the country. Bit of a contradiction between the two :confused:

    183016.png

    183019.pngn


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The 00z model runs are all generally weaker on the development over the weekend although this could be the start of a series of flip-flop changes so I wouldn't say that this scenario is off the table yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Good to see the wind has been downgraded, the 18z would have been disastrous for Holland and Belgium!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Realistic outcome for Monday as regard any sleet/snow.

    183027.JPG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Monday at 9pm.

    Snow depth and snow risk maps, provided courtesy of netweather

    Snow/sleet confined to 300-400m above sea level. This may change in the interim.

    183030.png
    183029.png

    At present, the first half of December looks like it will pan out being mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold i.e. an unsettled month but average to slightly below average temps for the month.

    183031.png


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    This afternoon's 12Z looks a bit better.

    183061.png

    183062.gif

    EDIT: Dew point isn't low enough thought. What Wolf says below :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Snow potential in the latest GEFS run is restricted to high ground (above 300-400 metres) north of the Midlands. Certainly not looking any way as potent as it did last night. Where there are downgrades there can easily be upgrades regarding snow potential. An update from MT later will put everything right though......won't it MT? :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Have the latest charts any update on this? an upgrade/downgrade? or no great change?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Potential for severe winds seems to be dropping on every run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    What a great thread title!!!

    First snow of the season in Knock right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Ha ha

    Only joking its hail


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Downgrade, ML.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Downgrade, ML.

    So far .....


  • Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭megatron989


    I'm hoping for snow but really I think Jan is the month for us! Only 4 or 5 weeks away and we could be shlipping and shliding all over the gaff lads!


  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭aurora 527


    Finally something of interest to get our teeth into. I don't expect any snow in Waterford but i'm jumping on the first Roller Coaster of the Winter :) All aboard

    Push over, coming aboard:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    pauldry wrote: »
    What a great thread title!!!

    First snow of the season in Knock right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Ha ha

    Only joking its hail

    I reported it earlier on a different thread. Was speaking to a few folk that had been through there mid afternoon and there was some wet snow up at the airport. Croagh Patrick also had snow on top earlier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 661 ✭✭✭Mayo_Boy


    Whats the latest scenario with the weather for the weekend? Still a chance of sleet/snow or has it changed?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Mayo_Boy wrote: »
    Whats the latest scenario with the weather for the weekend? Still a chance of sleet/snow or has it changed?

    Bit of a downgrade so far today, But the latest model is rolling out later tonight so we'll see how that goes.


This discussion has been closed.
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