We have had an immense three to four weeks here on boards’ weather forum talking about snow potential. Now that the potential has gone in the short term, so has the flood of visitors to the forum.
Conscious that things can change quite significantly in the medium term, I thought it might be an idea to highlight a potential snow risk for midweek next week. We have been discussing the potential for this on the long range models thread.
GFS, supported by some other models, has been fairly consistent over the past 48 hours in signalling a return to cold weather midweek next week. GFS shows an increasing risk of East-SE winds off the colder continent kicking in midweek, across the country by Tuesday to be precise.
Snow risk for Northern Ireland and the East/South East coast on Tuesday
By Wednesday, the winds turn East and feed in air directly from Russia. The uppers (air temps 1200-1600 metres up) drop to between -5c and -10c meaning that most precip that falls in Ireland will fall as snow. The chances of heavy snow showers (similar to New Years Eve) hitting the East coast and further inland on Wednesday is very significant according to the GFS
While all of this is going on, Britain is likely to see plenty of snow along its Eastern flank and pushing well inland.
The GFS, at this stage, does not indicate that a significant blocking system will be in place to entrench this easterly flow. The lower temps never quite make it to the South West of the country. With the absence of such a block system, similar to our recent Scandinavian High, leaves the back door open for the Atlantic to reaffirm itself. This appears to be the case on the latest GFS run.
On Thursday of next week a significant Atlantic system crosses the country eastwards from the Atlantic. It will most likely fall as sleet or snow before turning back to rain (where have I heard that before)
This is my reading of the latest GFS model output and not a forecast. Further analysis and GFS runs are required, along with other models falling into line, is required to confirm this event will take place. Either way, it raises some hope (for snow lovers) that there will be a return to much colder weather than the present by Tuesday next week. This is further reinforced by the JMA model showing great potential for such a cold spell to continue beyond Thursday (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma...92-7.GIF?13-12). Likewise, the ECMWF (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecm...0-168.GIF?13-0) shows significantly colder air establishing itself over the country by Wednesday. While the GEM shows that cold air will also be attempting to push our milder air back into the atlantic http://220.127.116.11/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-144.png.