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13-01-2010, 22:37   #1
 
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Cold Spell From Tuesday 19 Jan 09?

We have had an immense three to four weeks here on boards’ weather forum talking about snow potential. Now that the potential has gone in the short term, so has the flood of visitors to the forum.

Conscious that things can change quite significantly in the medium term, I thought it might be an idea to highlight a potential snow risk for midweek next week. We have been discussing the potential for this on the long range models thread.

GFS, supported by some other models, has been fairly consistent over the past 48 hours in signalling a return to cold weather midweek next week. GFS shows an increasing risk of East-SE winds off the colder continent kicking in midweek, across the country by Tuesday to be precise.

Snow risk for Northern Ireland and the East/South East coast on Tuesday
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png

By Wednesday, the winds turn East and feed in air directly from Russia. The uppers (air temps 1200-1600 metres up) drop to between -5c and -10c meaning that most precip that falls in Ireland will fall as snow. The chances of heavy snow showers (similar to New Years Eve) hitting the East coast and further inland on Wednesday is very significant according to the GFS
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...h850t850eu.png

While all of this is going on, Britain is likely to see plenty of snow along its Eastern flank and pushing well inland.

The GFS, at this stage, does not indicate that a significant blocking system will be in place to entrench this easterly flow. The lower temps never quite make it to the South West of the country. With the absence of such a block system, similar to our recent Scandinavian High, leaves the back door open for the Atlantic to reaffirm itself. This appears to be the case on the latest GFS run.

On Thursday of next week a significant Atlantic system crosses the country eastwards from the Atlantic. It will most likely fall as sleet or snow before turning back to rain (where have I heard that before)
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...192/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...h850t850eu.png

This is my reading of the latest GFS model output and not a forecast. Further analysis and GFS runs are required, along with other models falling into line, is required to confirm this event will take place. Either way, it raises some hope (for snow lovers) that there will be a return to much colder weather than the present by Tuesday next week. This is further reinforced by the JMA model showing great potential for such a cold spell to continue beyond Thursday (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma...92-7.GIF?13-12). Likewise, the ECMWF (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecm...0-168.GIF?13-0) shows significantly colder air establishing itself over the country by Wednesday. While the GEM shows that cold air will also be attempting to push our milder air back into the atlantic http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-144.png.

Wolfe.

Last edited by WolfeIRE; 13-01-2010 at 22:42. Reason: fix typos
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13-01-2010, 22:39   #2
rovers2001
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Excellent here we go again so thanks Wolfe.
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13-01-2010, 22:44   #3
inabina
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isnt it just great to have something to look forward to in life as the last of the dirty slush slowly disappears...heres hoping
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13-01-2010, 22:50   #4
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Thanks Wolfe.

I've become hooked on this site, but unfortunately can't contribute more than thanks and inanity or insanity because of my absolute lack of knowledge.

The weather reports and forecasts here are fabulous. Kudos to all of you who share your knowledge and time.
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13-01-2010, 22:55   #5
pistolpetes11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WolfeIRE View Post
We have had an immense three to four weeks here on boards’ weather forum talking about snow potential. Now that the potential has gone in the short term, so has the flood of visitors to the forum.

Conscious that things can change quite significantly in the medium term, I thought it might be an idea to highlight a potential snow risk for midweek next week. We have been discussing the potential for this on the long range models thread.

GFS, supported by some other models, has been fairly consistent over the past 48 hours in signalling a return to cold weather midweek next week. GFS shows an increasing risk of East-SE winds off the colder continent kicking in midweek, across the country by Tuesday to be precise.

Snow risk for Northern Ireland and the East/South East coast on Tuesday
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png

By Wednesday, the winds turn East and feed in air directly from Russia. The uppers (air temps 1200-1600 metres up) drop to between -5c and -10c meaning that most precip that falls in Ireland will fall as snow. The chances of heavy snow showers (similar to New Years Eve) hitting the East coast and further inland on Wednesday is very significant according to the GFS
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...h850t850eu.png

While all of this is going on, Britain is likely to see plenty of snow along its Eastern flank and pushing well inland.

The GFS, at this stage, does not indicate that a significant blocking system will be in place to entrench this easterly flow. The lower temps never quite make it to the South West of the country. With the absence of such a block system, similar to our recent Scandinavian High, leaves the back door open for the Atlantic to reaffirm itself. This appears to be the case on the latest GFS run.

On Thursday of next week a significant Atlantic system crosses the country eastwards from the Atlantic. It will most likely fall as sleet or snow before turning back to rain (where have I heard that before)
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...192/ukprec.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...uksnowrisk.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimage...h850t850eu.png

This is my reading of the latest GFS model output and not a forecast. Further analysis and GFS runs are required, along with other models falling into line, is required to confirm this event will take place. Either way, it raises some hope (for snow lovers) that there will be a return to much colder weather than the present by Tuesday next week. This is further reinforced by the JMA model showing great potential for such a cold spell to continue beyond Thursday (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma...92-7.GIF?13-12). Likewise, the ECMWF (http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecm...0-168.GIF?13-0) shows significantly colder air establishing itself over the country by Wednesday. While the GEM shows that cold air will also be attempting to push our milder air back into the atlantic http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-144.png.

Wolfe.
To me this is where the real action happens on the weather forum.

You learn an awful lot in these quieter times on here .

I love looking through all the charts trying to make sense of what you guys are saying.

I have been an everyday visitor for nearly over a year now and it has been a huge learning curve, The missus thinks I have lost the plot when she sees me looking through the charts and talking about them.

Cheers

EDIT : From your viewing of the charts, do you see another Blocking high moving in again this winter ? or is this really the battle ground , if the mild atlantic air breaks through are we stuck in its cycle for a few weeks ?

Last edited by pistolpetes11; 13-01-2010 at 22:58.
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13-01-2010, 23:12   #6
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Well I for one have had enough cold weather for this year, roll on the spring.
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13-01-2010, 23:19   #7
pistolpetes11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 200motels View Post
Well I for one have had enough cold weather for this year, roll on the spring.
You can keep your mild , damp , windy weather
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13-01-2010, 23:24   #8
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I've also learned a lot on here these past couple of weeks - massive thanks to all the people who take the time to impart their knowledge (and don't lose their rag at people constantly asking "Is it gonna snow yet?" repeatedly)

Gonna keep popping in (was watching Slumdog Millionaire earlier, that's why I was late)
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13-01-2010, 23:26   #9
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Bring on the snow .
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13-01-2010, 23:30   #10
Scubadevils
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Good stuff, looks like we are in for a real roller coaster winter. I am over in London tonight and it had been snowing here last night... not much around the city but lovely crisp air, missed that over the last day or so in Ireland - look forward to it's swift return
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13-01-2010, 23:33   #11
IrishHomer
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Cheers Wolf!

God i love this site but i'm soooooooo addicted to this

I'm so sad that back in the days many moons ago before any internet or boards Weather forums i used to lie in bed every night until the long range weather and shipping forecast would be on BBC radio, the sound would be all crackly and dificult to hear. I was even listening intentively the days before they all got it wrong for the massive event of 1982. (soorry for sidetracking)

Can
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13-01-2010, 23:34   #12
IrishHomer
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Cheers Wolf!

God i love this site but i'm soooooooo addicted to this

I'm so sad that back in the days many moons ago before any internet or boards Weather forums i used to lie in bed every night until the long range weather and shipping forecast would be on BBC radio, the sound would be all crackly and dificult to hear. I was even listening intentively the days before they all got it wrong for the massive event of 1982. (soorry for sidetracking)

Can i be 1st in the que for a ticket for the Rollercoaster please
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14-01-2010, 00:01   #13
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Interesting. I think it will be interesting to see how the authorities deal with it. John Eagleton of Met Eireann mentioned it earlier on in the week but only in passing. I wonder are they warning the revelvant authorities? Do the emergency committee know? Do the councils know? And are they stock piling salt in preperation? We shall see!
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14-01-2010, 00:22   #14
 
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Excellent post Wolfe looks like next week will turn cold again just how cold is open to question but thanks to you and others here on the boards for your input
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14-01-2010, 00:24   #15
delw
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lets hope its game on again wolfe(spare a thought for haiti)
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