Cold Spell From Tuesday 19 Jan 09?

mchammer22

Yes indeedy! thanks to ALL who have inputted their forecasts/reports! I'm a newbie to this site but have been looking at it for over 4 weeks now.I'm totally obsessed with the weather and always have been and its sooo interesting to read these posts. I'm looking forward to the developments now on Tues yeeaahh go snow!!

Chicken Run

sideswipe wrote: »

It’s funny how some of us have this deep down obsession with snow. Like the above poster I need it to warm up for work reason's but part of me is still saying "c'mon bring it on I want to see that fluffy white stuff up to the window sills". even though it could have a bad effect on my income. I had an important hospital appointment last Monday and needed a thaw to be able to go, but when 'snowmaggedon' didn't materialize on Sunday/Monday (in Dublin) meaning I'd no trouble making my appointment part of me was still really disappointed. Weird really, think I need to talk to somebody!

well if you find someone, book me in too.
I work outside (gardener) so the snow and ice is a complete PITA for me, work-wise.
I also keep animals so looking after them in the cold weather takes a lot more effort - water supplies unfrozen, more feed costs in cold weather, having to dress up like an eskimo to go out and bring them in etc etc.
But I love the feeling of waking up early in the morning and seeing that pale glow through the windows, getting up and seeing everywhere blanketed in white...just like being a kid again.
Driving in it doesn't phase me so much - I grew up in Yorkshire and regularly drove to work up the Pennines so am kinda used to it.... and I love sledging !!!

WolfeIRE

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought all this mornings runs show the high further east and leaving us exposed to the atlantic.

the charts do show the high to the east (russia) as I stated. However, there will be a flood of cold air over the country from mid-late Tuesday to thursday according to the GFS.

Here is the set up for next thursday showing the colder easterly flow coming up against the atlantic system

Should this transpire then we are likely to see a cold W/NW showery setup across the country from Friday. However, small fluctuations, particularly to the location of that high over the coming days, will have a significant bearing on matters mid week

WolfeIRE

Other charts for next Thursday. An upgrade on last evening's runs

JMA MODEL

GEM Model

nacho libre

72 (19 members & 53 guests) Moderators : 4


what? no snow forecast for the east today, then:p


i'd take a north westerly airflow. it would be brief but a good chance of snowfall by night while it lasted

owenc

well i think this mild spell has started already sunny here and is 3.5c it actually feels like 10c or something it feels really warm reminding me what summer is like lol i thought the thermometer would read 12c or something!!!!! hopefully temps stay lovely and sunny like this then back into 0-3c maxes from tuesday with snow now that would be good!

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The set up has not changed significantly overnight from my initial post. East/SE flow establishing itself over the country gradually from Tuesday to Thursday. The charts indicate a high pressure system over Russia that will be no match for the Atlantic in terms of keeping the cold spell in place. Should high pressure build further north and west (Scandinavia) then we could be in for something more significant.

Looks like an Atlantic system will break the cold spell late Thursday/early Friday as it pushes eastwards across the country.

Before we get carried away,I'll make 2 comments.
2 days is not enough to bring cold surface air from middle europe to Ireland..never mind russia.
You need the flow for 4 days at least especially as there will be no cold surface pool in the uk.

Secondly,whilst gfs may be indicative at this stage it is useless and has been shown to be useless at handling Easterlies beyond 4 days.
I certainly wouldn't trust it this far out for uppers.

I wouldn't even bother looking at jma.

If you put up charts from ECM with a flow from the east sourced in Russia thats going for 4 days then I'll sit up and take notice.

owenc

flipping hell its 5.4c here now and the snow is still lying about 10 inches at the very top of the mountain omg you could actaully goto the beach it feels that warm!!!! flipping heck!!!!

francosp

What do the experts say percentage wise is the likeyhood of this next cold event happening ?

By reading the posts here and considering its still +168 out i'd say less than 20%

Anyone else care to predict the percentage of this next cold spell happening ?

irishdub14

This cold spell sounds like it will be very short but very cold if its coming directly from Russia!! Let's hope we see more significant snowfall (in Dublin anyway! :P) before the Winters out.

Bog Butter

irishdub14 wrote: »

This cold spell sounds like it will be very short but very cold if its coming directly from Russia!! Let's hope we see more significant snowfall (in Dublin anyway! :P) before the Winters out.

Short and sweet (i.e snow) would be just fine.

Darragh29

Lubby Jubbly!

nacho libre

i think it's quite clear to anyone studying model outputs that it will be a brief flirtation with colder air before the atlantic takes over. of course it won't be of interest to those in the east but if we do get a cold north westerly airflow sometime next week, many of us in the west and north west could well see snow by night. yes, it will be a brief affair, and won't lead to huge amounts, but any snow is not to be sniffed at.

Supercell

Can I get over the current cold snap please?, still have 7"+ of concrete like snow out there and covered roads..the cold spell isnt gone yet!

owenc

Supercell wrote: »

Can I get over the current cold snap please?, still have 7"+ of concrete like snow out there and covered roads..the cold spell isnt gone yet!

Well after getting to 5c I'd like to think the cold spell was over we arnt in Spain !!!!!!

items

Footpaths along with tarmac lane starting to freeze over here in Louth.

Might be return of the frost here.

Pangea

Did ya see your man on the news ,said he was standing on 7 foot of snow ,surley thats not right? lol

k123456

I'm due to fly out of Dublin airport 1st thing jan 21, is it likely we will have snow to contend with (2o%, 30% etc)
and

After runway is cleared, is a case of letting the flights which have been delayed longest out first

snowstreams

Whats the likelyhood of avalanches in the irish mountains now that the thaw has kicked in?
There has already been a few in wales. The vid on this page has a pic of one in wales http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/8460349.stm

Bishop_Donal

Next week certainly looking increasingly interesting.

We seem to be right on the dividing line between the cold continental airflow and the warm and moist Atlantic airflow.

Will be interesting to see which wins out. Would be a complete sickener if Britain got all the action again:mad:

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=wind&starttime=

kayakboy

Pangea wrote: »

Did ya see your man on the news ,said he was standing on 7 foot of snow ,surley thats not right? lol

I was in on the dublin hills todays - easily 7ft drifts - it is also got quite a hard crust because it fell so wet and has frozen over.
In some places all of tuesday's snow was blown away completely leaving some amazing formations.

IrishHomer

On the six one news this evening on RTE the newsreader said mild air is to return for all of next week.

pauldry

I think mild and wet for next week is in the offing. The cold weather looks like being swept East so that even Britain might miss it. We will be bathed in temperatures of around 8c.

Tropical eh?

But hey this can change :rolleyes:

Min

I want mild weather so I won't complain if the snow lovers are disappointed, still snow here, it gets boring after a while and affects work and life in general.

flutegirl

omg :eek: cannot hack anymore bad weather, doing me head in, have stuff to do, people to see, places to go! Do I need to clear tesco of all their stuff to survive?

nacho libre

it'll be funny if people, who were complaing about the cold, start complaining about the incessant rain should we end up with three- four weeks of system after system passing over us.

flutegirl

Will gladly do raindance if it will help.

paddybar

irish1967 wrote: »

Peeks in. I'm still here too

and me .never left just dont post much

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Did ya see your man on the news ,said he was standing on 7 foot of snow ,surley thats not right? lol

Actually,he said he was at 1500ft and at that height in dublin or wicklow he would be.

Deep Easterly

My concerns are that if the cold does not make it through, is that we are looking at an extended spell of total non-descriptness. The ECM tonight suggests nothing more than average temps overall with occasional weak frontal systems at times passing over if we are lucky. No storms to look forward to which is very unusual for January. I am shocked at how calm this winter has been so far. The cold spell has been great, but very unusual to have no big wind events at this stage of the winter so far.