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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

1…666768697072»

Comments

  • #3552
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Dryer than average is the buzz. It's a thumbs up from me.

    Unfortunately as this is FI this dry spell is not guaranteed for any decent length of time. The 12z wants to to bring cooler weather in from the 3rd of March which develops into an easterly. Not a freezer easterly but a cool easterly which would bring days of rain showers to the eastern half of the country with wintryness on the hills. Hopefully this doesn't happen as it would not be pleasant. A 'flat' easterly in March is no longer bitterly cold, it needs to be a North easterly to bring temperatures down cold enough. By the end of March we would need a direct northerly from the pole in order to maintain wintryness. Easterlies can be very cold in the winter but they become milder as we move into the Spring and eventually warm by the end of Spring and into the start of summer.

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_264_1.png

    Atlantic comes back a few days later with a cool north-west to south-east flow.

    GFSOPEU12_348_1.png


  • #3553
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Well this is exciting...

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1364218455868772356?s=19


  • #3554
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The ECM extended is out and basically it is hinting at a dryer than average first half of March, especially for eastern and southern areas. The north and west will be closer to normal in terms of precipitation by the second week of March with hints of the Atlantic beginning to make inroads again. The first week of March will be very mild, perhaps 3 to 5C above average. Once we get to the second week of March temperatures will be back to more normal values.

    The ECM is hinting at a return of the westerlies for the second half of March and it may become increasingly unsettled and perhaps slightly cooler if we have a north-west to south-east alignment of the low pressures in off the Atlantic.

    I will not be reading too much into those EC46 update after this winter, they have been wide of the mark alot, particularly for this Februray. Although it does look like the first week of March will be settled, with cold zonality likely after that . The chance of a deep cold spell is all but gone now, the best we can hope for is a decent northern toppler.


  • #3555
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

    I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

    Maybe March can surprise us yet. I remember one night in March, oh it must be nearly 15 years ago now and the snow was up to our knees. It quickly turned to rain the next day but there was lumps of it for one or two days. Would that be too much to ask?


  • #3556
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

    I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

    Spring is probably the quietest season of the year in terms of weather interest. Winter is gone for another year and interest generally only picks up around May when the weather hopefully turns more towards summer, then the model watching comes back looking for warm spells/heatwaves which rarely affect Ireland! Once we move into the autumn the buildup to winter begins again, so Spring is generally always the quietest season unless something exceptional happens such as BFTE/Storm Emma in March 2018.


  • #3557
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The dry/settled period of weather should be starting around now with very little rain over the next week to 10 days. This dry spell will be most welcome after what seems like an eternity of damp or wet conditions since the 1st week of June 2020. it will remain very mild throughout the next week generally but once we reach the end of the first week of March temperatures will return to normal or slightly below average.

    GFSOPEU06_198_1.png

    At the moment the GFS is suggesting plenty of cold zonality from the 6th of March with fairly windy and wet conditions and these could be wintry on hills and mountains.

    GFSOPEU06_300_1.png

    GFSOPUK06_300_53.png

    GFSOPEU06_342_1.png

    We finish with perhaps a brief northerly and staying cold.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


  • #3558
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

    I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

    Maybe March can surprise us yet. I remember one night in March, oh it must be nearly 15 years ago now and the snow was up to our knees. It quickly turned to rain the next day but there was lumps of it for one or two days. Would that be too much to ask?[/QUOT
    If we get early morning frost and fog, it might inspire people to take photos and post them

    Decent snowfall used to be quite common in March, back when we used to get potent northerlies. There are people here claiming climate change has led to less cold northerlies, but it does not seem to be a problem in the states, although the cold there does not have to travel over vast stretches of warmer waters. Also, the whole vortex can pay them visit.
    I would love a northerly of old to pay us a visit this March.


  • #3559
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The problem with the northerlies we get is nothing to do with climate change. It is the fact that the majority of northerlies we get aren't real northerlies, they are northerly topplers which only brush through the country for a day or so and are replaced by mild weather from the Atlantic 24 to 48 hours later. A real direct northerly is a completely different beast and requires blocking to be in place to stop the Atlantic from collapsing the northerly back into eastern Europe.


  • #3560
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The problem with the northerlies we get is nothing to do with climate change. It is the fact that the majority of northerlies we get aren't real northerlies, they are northerly topplers which only brush through the country for a day or so and are replaced by mild weather from the Atlantic 24 to 48 hours later. A real direct northerly is a completely different beast and requires blocking to be in place to stop the Atlantic from collapsing the northerly back into eastern Europe.

    This is not quite true, in the past a lot of northerlies were topplers that tended to last two to three days at most, before an Atlantic ridge came in on the third day to kill the shower activity off, but while brief they were potent. Northerlies that arose from proper blocking, which lasted longer than this time period, were not all that common from what I remember. The two best examples were 2000 and 2010.


  • #3561
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UW144-21.GIF?24-17

    UN144-21.GIF?24-18

    Surprising UKM. My froggy senses are tingling


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  • #3562
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,095 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    What are we looking at here Kermit?


  • #3563
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    A possible route to cold with high pressure building to our north. Early days. I'll only get interested if it evolves and is still there tomorrow.


  • #3564
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    A possible route to cold with high pressure building to our north. Early days. I'll only get interested if it evolves and is still there tomorrow.

    Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.


  • #3565
    windows 7 home premium
    Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭windows 7 home premium


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.
    Agree with this. I've had enough with the cold, plus they only bring cold rain in my part of the country.


  • #3566
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwkwRQGbxyo


  • #3567
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ICON first out and i'm liking the trend. I'm not saying it's on but i'm happy enough. It's the trend that matters.

    icon-0-180.png?25-00

    Lets see how this evolves. Not much change required to see a real easterly soon.

    For those who hate snow and chaos in the run up to Easter you don't want me getting interested ;)


  • #3568
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Oh sure the weather is so messed up nowadays anything is possible. But the trend is dry and eventless.


  • #3569
    adocholiday
    Registered Users Posts: 1,923 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    How long are we expecting this calm, dry spell to last? Regardless of temperature fluctuations but are we looking at a lull now for the next 7-10 days or can we expect more wet or windy events?


  • #3570
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The weather is gone on holiday for 7 to 10 days.
    It will have to quarentine.


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  • #3571
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Spring is probably the quietest season of the year in terms of weather interest. Winter is gone for another year and interest generally only picks up around May when the weather hopefully turns more towards summer, then the model watching comes back looking for warm spells/heatwaves which rarely affect Ireland! Once we move into the autumn the buildup to winter begins again, so Spring is generally always the quietest season unless something exceptional happens such as BFTE/Storm Emma in March 2018.

    And despite that, I'd say overall it's probably the most enjoyable and pleasant season we have for most people. Days getting longer, first signs of warmth, nature coming back to life, statistically the driest and sunniest season and we all have the naive optimism that the summer ahead will be a scorcher!


  • #3572
    iagreebut
    Site Banned Posts: 109 ✭✭iagreebut


    Will we have enough dryness for the river's to drop their levels over the next few days.

    The trout season opened up, and I'm dying to chuck a few files down the local weir..


  • #3573
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    And despite that, I'd say overall it's probably the most enjoyable and pleasant season we have for most people. Days getting longer, first signs of warmth, nature coming back to life, statistically the driest and sunniest season and we all have the naive optimism that the summer ahead will be a scorcher!

    was thinking the same myself, it can be very quiet weatherwise but the increase in daylight and sun higher in the sky with just a couple of extra degrees celsius increase the impact on Nature activity is bigger than any other time of year


  • #3574
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    overall it looks high pressure dominated for the next 7 days, with a general Southerly or South Westerly Airflow keeping temperatures a couple of degrees above average for everywhere except the South Coast. after that it's still high pressure dominated but with the placement of the high shifted East I would think we may get some continental air with it's origin from scandinavia but modified so that temps won't fall that much and the West seeing the better weather and temperatures


  • #3575
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Anyone ever heard of this "ECM" model?

    ECM0-192.GIF?26-12

    ECM0-240.GIF?26-12


  • #3576
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    GFS rollout has dry dry dry


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  • #3577
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM has been fairly terrible all winter past 144 hours.


  • #3578
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    pauldry wrote: »
    GFS rollout has dry dry dry

    For how long ?


  • #3579
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Anyone ever heard of this "ECM" model?

    ECM0-192.GIF?26-12

    ECM0-240.GIF?26-12

    Just need that high to move a 100 miles or so west!


  • #3580
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gonzo wrote: »
    ECM has been fairly terrible all winter past 144 hours.

    You are correct. Hopefully it will be wrongly placing the -14s over the Netherlands rather than us.:)


  • #3581
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM is also a big outlier, but when it's showing us missing out on the coldest uppers it's probably right. Also it has support from other models. It seems the story of our winter might carry on into early Spring!


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  • #3582
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I, for one, think we are edging closer to a colder phase from later next week. Not quite there yet on the models.


  • #3583
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Everything we post here is already into the Spring and Spring starts on Monday. I'm thinking about closing this thread over the weekend. Winter has ended on an exceptionally mild note with the February mean already well past 6C in many stations. Overall February will be the mildest month of the winter and if it wasn't for the first 10 days of the month being colder than average, we could have come close to the record breaking February 2019 for overall warmth.

    However we can be fooled into thinking Spring has well and truly sprung and that it's going to be solidly mild for all of March. The models are definitely firming up on another cool to cold spell, small chance of an easterly/north-easterly and a bigger chance of a brief cold northerly and some cold zonality following. First third of February was cold while the later 2/3s have been very mild. March could also divide into thirds with the first third being mild and dry but the later 2/3s could be unsettled and relatively cool. This evenings charts could be interesting.


  • #3584
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Here is the ECM operational run

    ECM1-168.GIF?26-0

    New, soon to be operational run, now available on Meteociel

    ECM1-168.GIF?26-0

    Decent enough trend to allow colder air in from the north/northeast.

    How cold remains to be seen.


  • #3585
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Still plenty to interest from the overnight ECM. Still not cold enough for March, still out on its own ( but others moving toward it rather than other way around) but hard not to be a little excited by the below chart from just 7 days away...

    ECM0-168.GIF?27-12


  • #3586
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Still plenty to interest from the overnight ECM. Still not cold enough for March, still out on its own ( but others moving toward it rather than other way around) but hard not to be a little excited by the below chart from just 7 days away...

    ECM0-168.GIF?27-12

    probably not even cold enough for snow. Would be similar to what we had in early February with graupel showers and probably rain/sleet/snow mix showers.


  • #3587
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Hmmm... well what is cold enough for snow in your mind? -20c 850hPa?


  • #3588
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Time to bury this winter in as deep and secure a grave as is possible, but not before ramming a stake though its grotesque heart lest it get any notions of rising again by the dark of the moon.

    New Moon



  • #3589
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Hmmm... well what is cold enough for snow in your mind? -20c 850hPa?

    in order to avoid transitional hill snow I like to see a minimum of -10 uppers along with decent instability. It can snow at -5 to -8 but risk too much modification from the sea and it can be marginal particularly along coastal counties depending on the conditions. I like to see -10 uppers as a minimum throughout the country when it comes to easterlies or northerlies to be on the safe side. Unlikely we will see such widespread cold uppers till next winter as this winter is now basically over.


  • #3590
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Hmmm I can’t see rain with -8c 850hPa’s from a Continental source.


  • #3591
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Hmmm I can’t see rain with -8c 850hPa’s from a Continental source.

    You forget that surface temperatures are beginning to warm from this point onwards. Upper air temps will need to be cooler than they might have to be in Dec & Jan and even the early part of Feb.

    New Moon



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  • #3592
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The dry bulb temperature is not the determining factor in terms of precipitation type. That would be the Wet Bulb Temperature (the temperature of the air surrounding the snow flakes), as long as there is a shallow layer of warm air (no higher than 8c) and the wet bulb is subzero throughout the air column, snow will fall.

    Also remember that the air unaffected by radiative heating or the air above the Planetary Boundary Layer will stay at a uniform temperature throughout the day, so despite warming at the surface in any showers this can be brought down to the surface.


  • #3593
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The dry bulb temperature is not the determining factor in terms of precipitation type. That would be the Wet Bulb Temperature (the temperature of the air surrounding the snow flakes), as long as there is a shallow layer of warm air (no higher than 8c) and the wet bulb is subzero throughout the air column, snow will fall.

    Also remember that the air unaffected by radiative heating or the air above the Planetary Boundary Layer will stay at a uniform temperature throughout the day, so despite warming at the surface in any showers this can be brought down to the surface.
    Are you talking about evaporative cooling from heavy showers? Also what about the cooler sea temperatures at this time of year?


  • #3594
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I am saying that precipitation type below 8c temp is primarily determined by the air columns’ wet bulb temperature, as this is the temperature of the air around the snowflake as it evaporates.

    What I am also saying is that the influence of radiative heating does not affect the temperature of the air 300-400 metres above the surface. Meaning that there will be a shallow layer of warm air with a very steep lapse rate, this warm air can quickly be swept out of the way in any downdrafts or heavy precipitation.

    I wouldn’t necessarily say that there would be evaporative cooling in this situation, more that the cold air is brought to the surface through downdrafts. And this is certainly possible. I have seen snow at 6-8c in April before.

    So if we get 850hPa of -8c next week I do expect to see snow in any showers; particularly at night. We are definitely not too late for snow, it can snow in May.


  • #3595
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    ECM still very interesting for next weekend imho but I think I'm on my own in thinking this!


  • #3596
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I am saying that precipitation type below 8c temp is primarily determined by the air columns’ wet bulb temperature, as this is the temperature of the air around the snowflake as it evaporates.

    What I am also saying is that the influence of radiative heating does not affect the temperature of the air 300-400 metres above the surface. Meaning that there will be a shallow layer of warm air with a very steep lapse rate, this warm air can quickly be swept out of the way in any downdrafts or heavy precipitation.

    I wouldn’t necessarily say that there would be evaporative cooling in this situation, more that the cold air is brought to the surface through downdrafts. And this is certainly possible. I have seen snow at 6-8c in April before.

    So if we get 850hPa of -8c next week I do expect to see snow in any showers; particularly at night. We are definitely not too late for snow, it can snow in May.

    Low ground near or adjacent to much higher ground can 'borrow' the weather from the higher up ground
    A good example of this that calibos and many south Dubs will be familiar with in marginal winter weather is the stretch of the N11 adjacent to the sugarloaf south to just beyond kilpedar in North Wicklow
    There are probably many examples in Donegal and Derry
    I'm in one if the flow is off my adjacent mountains to my west or North


  • #3597
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Under the influence of HP it would seem and trending colder and haven't seen rainfall accumulation charts as dry as that in an age.

    Some widespread sharp frosts towards next weekend into the following week on the latest ECM charts, GFS not as cold but looking like a colder trend also.



    JIgyIO5.gif


    anim_dps8.gif


    IiNGsvg.png


  • #3598
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,960 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Unfortunately it is time to close this thread for another year. FI charts beyond 120 hours can be discussed in the Spring long range Fantasy Island thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058164376


This discussion has been closed.
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