Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Little snowy old me · 25-06-2020 12:04pm

nacho libre wrote: »

This is unusual, you usually are very optimistic. In these situations thunderstorms can occur in places that they aren't necessarily forecasted to. Also with the east forecast to be sunny, with quite warm and humid conditions into this evening, this heating may well storm development later on. It maybe the case that you miss out on seeing lightning in your area, but i'd be confident you'll at least see some in the distance night sky.

Thanks nacho, that gives me a bit of hope for later so. Its certainly 'muggy' enough for activity later so we will see how things go.

Mortelaro · 25-06-2020 12:05pm

IvySlayer wrote: »

Anyone remember 2003 I think in October? Lightning/thunder started from morning and lasted well into the night.

Yes that was in September
It was fierce here in Arklow but I was at a wedding in Brittany where it was something to behold altogether

Same system causing the storms as in Ireland
Started at home around 5 and went on untill the small hours
In Brittany it was just constant forks with the bangs at the same time
Power was off but ya wouldn't have needed lights

Musefan · 25-06-2020 12:08pm

A dead heat in Cavan with an occasional light breeze. The sky is very hazy, the kind where you're not sure if you're looking up at cloud cover or sky!

US2 · 25-06-2020 12:20pm

Why will there be minimal thunder or rain with this lightning, or why do do we usually get thunder and rain with lightning

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 12:30pm

US2 wrote: »

Why will there be minimal thunder or rain with this lightning, or why do do we usually get thunder and rain with lightning

If we do manage to get some surface-based storms (formed by the land heating up to the required temperature) then we will see rain from this, but the inaudible thunder and no rain applies to elevated storms, i.e. not formed directly by hot air rising from the ground but from some level up high. With these storms the lightning occurs much higher up (i.e. further away) and the thunder gets ducted away from us as it passes down through the warmer layers of the atmosphere (like a reverse mirage). The rain can evaporate as it falls the long distance through the dry low layers to the ground.

A few small cumulus fractus are now forming over the Wicklow mountains.

Mortelaro · 25-06-2020 12:31pm

US2 wrote: »

Why will there be minimal thunder or rain with this lightning, or why do do we usually get thunder and rain with lightning

The lightning will be up at 20 to 30000 ft so even if overhead it will be up to 10 kms away and cloud to cloud adding to its muffling
You will hear it but it will be distant
The lightning will be lower if it's raining nearby or at your location
Gunshots then

highdef · 25-06-2020 12:32pm

The cloud base will be very high so the thunder created by cloud to cloud lightning (usually the more common type versus cloud to ground) has a long way to travel. Also, if it's a night time storm the lightning can often appear to be quite close when in fact it's many kilometres away, often so far away that the sound of the thunder does not reach you.

Rain wise, with high based storms the rain sometimes evaporates before it reaches the ground.

You beat me to it, Mortelaro!!!

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:36pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some models, in fact most now delay storms with heavy rainfall to the early hours of the morning in the east but storms with little or no rainfall prior. This is not actually that unusual with a plume like this - you can have lightning flashing all round and literally no rain reaching the surface. The lightning would be particularly high in elevation but still packs a visual punch.

It's disconcerting at first but it's quite a show all the same.

The last example I can think of was some time in the late 90's but I can't remember the year because I was too young - maybe 97 something like this occurred in Dublin.

If anyone remembers let us know. It was spectacular and very memorable.

You were only a tadpole.

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:37pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Maybe i'm way out on the year. The lightning was relentless - never seen anything like it before prior but very little rainfall.

Definitely something you'd remember.

Around 24/25 August 2000.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 12:40pm

Seven Septs wrote: »

Around 24/25 August 2000.

I'm thinking maybe I am way out on the year.

There is no way a lot of people in Dublin don't remember that.

I'll take it as 2000, Cheers :cool:

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:40pm

IvySlayer wrote: »

Anyone remember 2003 I think in October? Lightning/thunder started from morning and lasted well into the night.

Remember well. The ground white with hail in Dublin. Looked like a snowfall. Mid October 2003.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-06-2020 12:42pm

Seven Septs wrote: »

Remember well. The ground white with hail in Dublin. Looked like a snowfall. Mid October 2003.

It lasted 3 days!

Spectacular event by any standard.

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:42pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yes that was in September
It was fierce here in Arklow but I was at a wedding in Brittany where it was something to behold altogether
Same system causing the storms as in Ireland
Started at home around 5 and went on untill the small hours
In Brittany it was just constant forks with the bangs at the same time
Power was off but ya wouldn't have needed lights

It was October. Go to October 2003 in the archive Met Statements and there's a great pic of Dublin.

https://www.met.ie/climate/past-weather-statements

Mid September had a heatwave in the mid 20s.

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:45pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm thinking maybe I am way out on the year.

There is no way a lot of people in Dublin don't remember that.

I'll take it as 2000, Cheers :cool:

For a write up again go to the archive for August 2000 on the Met site.

https://www.met.ie/climate/past-weather-statements

sryanbruen · 25-06-2020 12:46pm

Seven Septs wrote: »

Around 24/25 August 2000.

For a month as thundery as August 2000, it gets very little mention unfortunately.

A good section on it from the monthly bulletin:

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 12:48pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It lasted 3 days!

Spectacular event by any standard.

That was a great weather year.

From around 10th March a lovely dry warm spell. It carried into April with temps 21/22C mid April for Easter.

Some hot weather mid to late June. August heatwave and very dry. 1.6mm recorded in old Kilkenny station for the month i think.

Mid September heatwave and warm overall. October lightning and hail in the east mid October.

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 12:52pm

24.5°c with a Dewpoint of 20°c in Kildare

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 1:01pm

pad199207 wrote: »

24.5°c with a Dewpoint of 20°c in Kildare

I thought the Met Station temps were a bit low to reach 27/28C. You only need another 2.5C to reach 27, very doable.

Mortelaro · 25-06-2020 1:04pm

Seven Septs wrote: »

It was October. Go to October 2003 in the archive Met Statements and there's a great pic of Dublin.

https://www.met.ie/climate/past-weather-statements

Mid September had a heatwave in the mid 20s.

The one I'm recalling was in 04 I think
Yeah the October one brought snow to Lugnaquilla

Larbre34 · 25-06-2020 1:06pm

Chrisht but its heavy.

Mortelaro · 25-06-2020 1:07pm

Seven Septs wrote: »

I thought the Met Station temps were a bit low to reach 27/28C. You only need another 2.5C to reach 27, very doable.

A lot of the wow stations in leinster are at 24 or 25c atm

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 1:10pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

A lot of the wow stations in leinster are at 24 or 25c atm

They seem to have shot up in the last hour. I was going by Met Eireann site where 22C was the max at their official stations at 12pm.

JCX BXC · 25-06-2020 1:15pm

Jaysus lads, who gives a ****e what happened back in 19-- whatever, there's potential this evening! That's what most of us here want to discuss I'd imagine!

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 1:15pm

Selected 1 pm official temperatures/dewpoints.

Custume Barracks (Athlone) 23/16
Mount Dillon 23/15
Dunsany 22/18
Casement, Moore Park 22/17
Mullingar, Athenry 22/16
Gurteen 22/15
Waterford Airport 21/17
Dublin Airport 21/16
Johnstown Castle 20/15

Oak Park is not reporting.

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 1:17pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Jaysus lads, who gives a ****e what happened back in 19-- whatever, there's potential this evening! That's what most of us here want to discuss I'd imagine!

If you'd lived through July 1985 you'd know...;)

Larbre34 · 25-06-2020 1:19pm

Radar showing system making contact with Wexford

JCX BXC · 25-06-2020 1:20pm

Fairly hefty showers building off the north coast, strikes showing too.

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 1:23pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Fairly hefty showers building off the north coast, strikes showing too.

All for the fishes unfortunately.

typhoony · 25-06-2020 1:26pm

I'm going with a East Coast event mainly but inland to possibly 150kms

Ninthlife · 25-06-2020 1:27pm

Whats the best app/site for seeing where this is developing etc.

Kerp in mind im a total novice so nothing too complicated

Humberto Salazar · 25-06-2020 1:29pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Selected 1 pm official temperatures/dewpoints.

Custume Barracks (Athlone) 23/16
Mount Dillon 23/15
Dunsany 22/18
Casement, Moore Park 22/17
Mullingar, Athenry 22/16
Gurteen 22/15
Waterford Airport 21/17
Dublin Airport 21/16
Johnstown Castle 20/15

Oak Park is not reporting.

Not going to threaten 28 looking at that. 25 or 26 possible in one or two spots perhaps.

Gonzo · 25-06-2020 1:29pm

i'm going for scattered showers and thunderstorms, Ulster may see the bigger showers, particularly those moving up the Irish sea later. Ulster will also hold onto the warmth and humidity for a little bit longer. Thunderstorms possible almost anywhere but I don't think it will be much different than what we saw last week, some people will see storms, not everywhere will get them and places will miss out as is always the case with thunderstorms.

Gonzo · 25-06-2020 1:31pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Not going to threaten 28 looking at that. 25 or 26 possible in one or two spots perhaps.

yep temperatures are a few degree's below what I was expecting, I think 25 or 26C will probably be the max here too.

The One Doctor · 25-06-2020 1:34pm

Met Eireanns model still going for most of it missing the east coast and going through the Midlands and Ulster.

Larbre34 · 25-06-2020 1:35pm

Ninthlife wrote: »

Whats the best app/site for seeing where this is developing etc.

Kerp in mind im a total novice so nothing too complicated

Met eireanns own app has a rain radar on the front page, if you just want to spot cells near you.

JCX BXC · 25-06-2020 1:39pm

Ninthlife wrote: »

Whats the best app/site for seeing where this is developing etc.

Kerp in mind im a total novice so nothing too complicated

I'd recommend the Netweather Weather Radar, much clearer to see precipitation than the Met Éireann one and its ambiguous shades of blue.

RobertKK · 25-06-2020 1:43pm

It has gone cloudy here in Kilkenny,

Trebor176 · 25-06-2020 1:45pm

A bit of a change to yesterday's model. All northern parts are now in the highest risk category. Dublin is in with a good chance, but not much in the way of the high risk (red) category. Bad news for the southwest, perhaps? At least for weather folk from that neck of the woods

https://www.facebook.com/740149726003564/posts/3339048606113650/

Humberto Salazar · 25-06-2020 1:45pm

Gonzo wrote: »

yep temperatures are a few degree's below what I was expecting, I think 25 or 26C will probably be the max here too.

And I think that could make all the difference with regard to thundery activity and intensity later.

Gaoth Laidir · 25-06-2020 1:48pm

The 06Z ECM shows lightning density through Leinster and Ulster only, but the forecast soundings are showing even less MUCAPE than the 00Z run. Just proves that these lightning maps are not reliable.

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 1:52pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Jaysus lads, who gives a ****e what happened back in 19-- whatever, there's potential this evening! That's what most of us here want to discuss I'd imagine!

I suppose we're trying to prepare and see what this eve/tonight will be comparable to. 1985 etc are reference points for some of us Boomers:D

Seven Septs · 25-06-2020 1:54pm

Gonzo wrote: »

yep temperatures are a few degree's below what I was expecting, I think 25 or 26C will probably be the max here too.

Met Eireann were very confident in today being the hottest day of the year i.e. greater than 26.8C, on their evening bulletins yesterday.. interesting how they were so strong on it.

Musefan · 25-06-2020 1:55pm

An update from Cavan- I can't convey how sapping this heat is! It's just so close! 23 degrees currently with building cloud.

Donegal Storm · 25-06-2020 1:56pm

Gonzo wrote: »

i'm going for scattered showers and thunderstorms, Ulster may see the bigger showers, particularly those moving up the Irish sea later. Ulster will also hold onto the warmth and humidity for a little bit longer. Thunderstorms possible almost anywhere but I don't think it will be much different than what we saw last week, some people will see storms, not everywhere will get them and places will miss out as is always the case with thunderstorms.

Same as in seeing from looking at the models, one fast moving band of storms late this evening and overnight. Plenty of potential and hopefully a lot of people get a good show but this place seems to go mental with hype every time there's anything slightly out of the ordinary recently

KingdomRushed · 25-06-2020 1:58pm

This was never going to be a 1985 in my opinion. I would love to be proven wrong, but at the moment it is difficult to establish from the available model data that sort of potential. I must admit I am no expert however, I am having a good laugh at the Facebook page with the purple area for storms!

Currently in Dublin docks, it has gotten warmer in last hour, our weather station on our work site is showing 19.8 C, slight sea breeze. There is no convective cloud visible currently, but a growing haze out over the bay.

Danno · 25-06-2020 2:02pm

Johnstown 25.3c at present, bit of a fohn effect down off the hill c.330m in this live stream view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKUaaHFhM3s its 2 miles away.

Data: http://laoisweather.com/johnstownkk/

pad199207 · 25-06-2020 2:08pm

25.2°c in Kildare now

Comhrá · 25-06-2020 2:15pm

Ninthlife wrote: »

Whats the best app/site for seeing where this is developing etc.

Keep in mind im a total novice so nothing too complicated

Here's an app I find very useful for showing the location of recent lightning. It gives an audible alarm after a stroke occurs and you can set the detection distance radius as near or as far you like from your home location. Also has rain radar.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.jrustonapps.mylightningtracker&hl=en_IE

Little snowy old me · 25-06-2020 2:20pm

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

JCX BXC · 25-06-2020 2:24pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

You've no idea what you're talking about clearly, and constantly make blatant attempts to troll people. Of course Met Éireann are forecasting the thunderstorms to be hit and miss, that's the nature of thunderstorms.

I hope you see no thunderstorms!

-- On the plus side, we won't be seeing much more of "Little snowy old me" after the horribly abusive PM they just sent me.

Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

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