Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Kermit.de.frog

There's a skull approaching the southwest :eek:

zisdead

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

"not getting any younger"

Good lord man it's the chance of a thunderstorm you may be missing out on, not one last visit to the ocean before you die type scenario 😂

Danno

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

It's a long way to 7pm which is about the cut-off time for temperatures to achieve their maximums in a relatively settled configuration like today.

27c to 28c is the maximum that is likely to be achieved in one or more locations, not widespread.

Met Eireann are forecasting scattered thunderstorms which is the correct language to use when dealing with the country as a whole. Western Munster and Western Connacht are unlikely to see much.

When they forecast scattered showers from an atlantic setup it is always implied that the west and north will bear the brunt of these. Today its the eastern two thirds of Ireland at highest risk.

Slashermcguirk

Approaching 25 degrees at Phoenix park

lolie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There's a skull approaching the southwest :eek:

Maybe its the ghost of 85 returning :pac:

Funnyonion79

sryanbruen wrote: »

For a month as thundery as August 2000, it gets very little mention unfortunately.

A good section on it from the monthly bulletin:

It was Friday 25th August 2000. I remember being at the Bon Jovi concert outdoors at the RDS and we all got drenched with warm rain and the sky was lighting up with lightning flashing and thunder booming. The atmosphere was electric - literally. The weather made the whole concert even better - it's still one of the best gigs I've ever been to. Will never forget it.

pad199207

26.0°c on the dot in Kildare now

Edit: lads the Dewpoint is 21c 🥵

highdef

26.4c in North Kildare and still rising. Do you hear that, Little Snowy Old Me?

Seven Septs

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

In 1985 the max daytime temp before the storms kicked off was 23C. You don't need extreme heat.

Arrah go out and enjoy yourself and when you're otherwise engaged you might get hit by lightning. Maybe play crazy golf and you could get hit like Fr. Stone.

A watched pot never boils.

Oneiric 3

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

Temperatures are not really that important in set ups like this. For example, temps on July 25th 1985 barely scraped 20c and that was only in one or two spots. The average max that day was just 19.3c. Dew points would have been high though, and probably as much as today.

aidanodr

RTE Archive Footage of 85:

https://www.rte.ie/archives/collections/news/21200391-freak-storm-causes-damage/

Freak Storm Causes Damage - BROADCAST: 1985.JUL.26

The reporter is Des Cahill.

Captain_Crash

Funnyonion79 wrote: »

It was Friday 25th August 2000. I remember being at the Bon Jovi concert outdoors at the RDS and we all got drenched with warm rain and the sky was lighting up with lightning flashing and thunder booming. The atmosphere was electric - literally. The weather made the whole concert even better - it's still one of the best gigs I've ever been to. Will never forget it.

Was at it too, right at the very front so with the stage/lights/sound we didn’t even know it was raining let alone thunder.... we did see a few flashes during the show but didn’t realise till after how big that storm was!

Jon to this day still regards it as one of their most memorable concerts!

Humberto Salazar

Dropped to 23.4 Co Offaly and has become cloudy. No wind at all. It is humid but this is not enough for sparks.

bangkok

Little snowy old me wrote: »

This ain't going the way it should be. Temps are not going to hit 27 or 28. The potential intensity of the storms is dropping with each hour. And to rub salt into wounds, Met Eireann now forecasting that it will be hit and miss for many. Such a downturn in fortune. I honestly felt that we had a decent chance. I'm not looking for 1985 but would like to see and hear a decent storm. Not just one flash and a bang, a prolonged deep storm. I'm not getting any younger.

get yourself over to Bangkok around september, some epic storms around then

pad199207

Better updates from Met Eireann bar the word ‘Few’

Kermit.de.frog

Storms developing over Cornwall

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Better updates from Met Eireann bar the word ‘Few’

Always complaining...

Of course Kildare

During the beast from the east they were snowed in, in 800 metres of snow and they were still complaining.

Never satisfied this lot.

TheMilkyPirate

First strike off southwest coast of England. Strikes in Biscay seem to be gradually heading more north also

Cantona's Collars

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Storms developing over Cornwall

Already starting to cloud over here in Wexford.

Nabber

pad199207 wrote: »

Better updates from Met Eireann bar the word ‘Few’

The storms are likely to be localised and not nationwide.
So the use of 'few' is correct, it wont be a day of rolling Thunderstorms in any one location, with breaks in between to make a cup of team.

it's Thunderstorm potential... Not a hurricane.
A town could be basking in the sun while 20km away people are battling with Thor.

Oneiric 3

Uk Met forecast for midnight. Thundery troughs in Irish Sea with slack low having developing over south midlands region:



and for noon tomorrow, low has fully formed by then with imbedded but weakening thundery troughs over N Leinster but potentially still active over Ulster.



Summary: still on track for much of Leinster and Ulster with N. Connacht potentially in the slight risk category.

Nabber

Danno

Current screen is 24.9c (Max 25.3c). Current wetbulb is a whopping 20.4c!

Here is the current play of the sky:

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1276160630563704835?s=20

Mortelaro

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Uk Met forecast for midnight. Thundery troughs in Irish Sea with slack low having developing over south midlands region:



and for noon tomorrow, low has fully formed by then with imbedded but weakening thundery troughs over N Leinster but potentially still active over Ulster.



Summary: still on track for much of Leinster and Ulster with N. Connacht potentially in the slight risk category.

Met Eireanns tweet is not encouraging for leinster

Taking the Irish sea route

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1276149736962166790?s=09

Gaoth Laidir

3 pm temperature/dewpoint

Casement 25/17
Mount Dillon, Mullingar 24/17
Ballyhaise, Dunsany, Dublin Airport, Moore Park 23/17
Gurteen 23/15
Waterford Airport 22/17
Athenry 22/15

The Met Éireann chart for 18Z shows a trough oriented NW-SE from the midlands through Land's End to NW France, moving northwards at 20 knots. Weather associated with it is occasional moderate/heavy rain showers or moderate thunderstorms with rain, with cloud bases 5000-9000 ft.

SouthWesterly

Heatwave in North Kerry. 20C and cloudy all day.

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Always complaining...

Give the lad a break! He is beside himself with excitement and anxiety, which does nothing but show what an awful country this is for storm watchers. Nothing is guaranteed until it is right on top of you, and even then, you wonder are you just imagining it out of desperation.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

3 pm temperature/dewpoint

Casement 25/17
Mount Dillon, Mullingar 24/17
Ballyhaise, Dunsany, Dublin Airport, Moore Park 23/17
Gurteen 23/15
Waterford Airport 22/17
Athenry 22/15

The Met Éireann chart for 18Z shows a trough oriented NW-SE from the midlands through Land's End to NW France, moving northwards at 20 knots. Weather associated with it is occasional moderate/heavy rain showers or moderate thunderstorms with rain, with cloud bases 5000-9000 ft.

Casement now 24/18 at 15:30.

Oneiric 3

Mortelaro wrote: »

Met Eireanns tweet is not encouraging for leinster

Taking the Irish sea route

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1276149736962166790?s=09

Harmonie is a rubbish model, for these types of set ups anyway. Temperature is its strongest point I think.

M.T. Cranium

I checked out the synoptics for July 25-26 1985 and found them markedly similar to the current setup at both surface and 500 mb. Oneiric3 was saying it was slightly cooler (than today) the day before those overnight storms, and the CET values were about 2 deg cooler than today's values. The higher temperatures would not discourage me. It has reached 30-32 in most parts of Britain which should make for a well-defined frontal boundary later when the pressure gradient brings in a push of marine sourced air towards south Wales. This should give some decent lift especially after 21z.

Thinking this might develop fairly slowly and peak around 0300h.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Couple of sparks near Isle of Man

Slashermcguirk

Phoenix park 25 degrees at 3pm

Gaoth Laidir

Maryam Teeny Vegetation wrote: »

Couple of sparks near Isle of Man

The sky is clear there...

SleetAndSnow

About 22 degrees in cork city, not sure where to get dew points temp! Hazy sunshine but humid and warm. Not expecting anything tonight but that makes it all the better if we do

Oneiric 3

6z EPS (mean of all the ECM members) showing the mean rainfall distribution and intensity for midnight tonight with the darker colours suggesting where the greatest storm potential will lie.



by 4am, these more darker regions have extended all the way up along the east coast in into much of eastern Ulster. Let's see how it all plays out.

pad199207

26.5°c in Kildare now

highdef

26.8c, North kildare. It won't get to 27c though as a certain poster said earlier that it wouldn't and they sounded very confident.

26.9c now

pad199207

26.7°c in Kildare now. Extremely oppressive now. Convection building

Musefan

Temp rising in Cavan, 24 degrees, big clouds visible on the horizon.

seamusk84

pad199207 wrote: »

26.7°c in Kildare now. Extremely oppressive now. Convection building

It's so hot and humid in Celbridge right now....Yeesh. A good bit of convection too.

mhiggy09

After half an hr of cutting the lawn with a push lawn mower both me and the mower have given up the ghost. Humidity and heat is an energy sapper.

Gonzo

24.5C here at Dunshaughlin, making today the joint warmest day of the year along with the 2nd of June. If I can nudge an extra degree over the next hour then perhaps today will be the warmest day of the year at my location.

Phoenix Park at 25C and many other stations at 23 or 24C.

SleetAndSnow

About 24 degrees in Cork City. Wasn't expecting temps this high down here. Lovely!

Beechwoodspark

Very warm in mid Kildare at the moment.

highdef

It has surpassed 27c in North kildare. 27.3c with the sunshine turning hazy. A lot of land based convection has recently begun with some decent towers becoming evident.

I'm also interested in the area of cloud moving into Wexford now. Now sure if it's something building or if it's something that could be triggered further as it moves over the Wicklow mountains.

Ninthlife

Like others have mentioned heat is draining here in SW Kildare.

Lot of cloud cover at the moment

whippet

I've just finished a deadlift session in the back garden - it was almost impossible to breath. Should have sat on my arse instead !

highdef

UKMO quite keen to suggest widespread thunderstorms in eastern parts tomorrow afternoon.

Mortelaro

A lot of altocumulus in Arklow now,the same as yesterday
The air feels thick

Beechwoodspark

Anyone know when the heat will die down this evening