Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Comhrá

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Rookie question -

What sort of clouds should I be looking out for? Don’t want to be searching skies to my south when the action is building in the north.

This sort of thing. Can't miss them really:

greenfield21

I hope we are all looking out at the Irish sea at what could of been. Prefer a nice calm night.

Little snowy old me

What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.

KingdomRushed

Little snowy old me wrote: »

What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.

The toning down is probably based on their model assessments which maybe show less widespread storms than previously forecast. The toning down of language is reflected in their rainfall maps.

DOCARCH

Little snowy old me wrote: »

What's with the toning down of Met Eireann's forecast? Please don't tell me this is not going to happen. I have been looking forward to it since yesterday. I don't need more disappointment.

Expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed.

KingdomRushed

I've attached a screen grab of peak activity as shown on met website. No longer shows any precipitation for east coast for next 24 hours. Northwest is in firing line for a storm according to this, but not until after midnight. No activity showing for eastern Ireland anymore. Let's see if it is right. Yesterday morning it showed widespread very heavy precipitation over large parts of ireland.

squarecircles

the damp squids

cant wait to piss all of this thread later,regardless of what materialises,like people did with the storms in the west last week.

Am I right in saying this is a non event for the SW.

average_runner

DOCARCH wrote: »

Expect nothing and then you will not be disappointed.

We don't need the weather forum so:eek::D

Davaeo09

lovely morning here in kilkenny

very warm already

Gaoth Laidir

Don't be focusing too much on precipitation forecasts as rainfall can sometimes evaporate before reaching the ground with elevated storms.

Met Éireann's aviation chart for 12Z shows an area C covering all of Ireland and extending southeastwards down over Land's End and NW France. A trough is shown over Brest, moving northwestwards at 30 knots.

Weather description for this area is as follows:

Generally fine, but isolated (occasional near troughs) heavy showers/thunderstorms with hail, Cb bases 3000-6000 ft, and isolated coastal fog.

bazlers

Meteorite58 will come in with a haymaker of a prediction soon and the rollercoaster goes up again

John.Icy

squarecircles wrote: »

the damp squids

cant wait to piss all of this thread later,regardless of what materialises,like people did with the storms in the west last week.

Are you well?

Pretty much everyone looked on in envy of the storms last week out West. There was no pissing all over the thread, widespread acknowledgement of how incredible some of those storms seemed.

Your continued anger on this forum towards people in the East is frankly weird. It's just weather. Lighten up.

Comhrá

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Am I right in saying this is a non event for the SW.

Sadly I'd say you're right. In years of watching this sort of set-up with a humid southeasterly flow and our proximity to the Atlantic, I can't really ever recall significant thunderstorms developing in the Southwest of the country. At best, storms usually develop no further west than the Limk/ Tipp border. Maybe an isolated cell may pop up somewhere west of that line, but that's the most I'd expect.

These storms from Spanish plumes usually run east of a line from say, Waterford to east Mayo so west Munster will miss out as usual. Hope I'm wrong though!

lawred2

gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

What time is this weather change?

The One Doctor

lawred2 wrote: »

gorgeous morning here in North County Dublin

What time is this weather change?

8-10pm and on.

lawred2

The One Doctor wrote: »

8-10pm and on.

grand - should get a full day out of this sun then

Davaeo09

Davaeo09 wrote: »

lovely morning here in kilkenny

very warm already

Where else would people moan about something they can't control.

Overcast day in North Kerry. 19.2C
998 hpa. NNE wind 1.7 m/s

Muscles Schultz

The question needed to be asked - I’m driving from Dunmore East at 8pm to Dublin Airport to take a flight to Kerry to collect a dog for my one legged mother.....will it be safe to do so?

Storm 10

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

From Met Eireann


Tonight will be very mild and humid, with further scattered heavy and
thundery downpours and with a risk of hail and spot flooding. The risk of
thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht

Davaeo09

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

how has it moved so far north?

lawred2

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

Saw BBC weather earlier that had some sort of concentrated cell hitting east coast directly... Dublin was bang in the middle.

Didn't seem to go near Connacht

Storm 10

Seems to be showers developing to the South West

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Gaoth Laidir

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Kermit.de.frog

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hate to throw a spanner in the works

Met Eireann:

The risk of
thunderstorms is greatest in Ulster and Connacht

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM-e46xdcUo

Wine Goddess

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!

JCX BXC

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Met Eireann forecasting 29c in Firhouse by 5pm. We could definitely make it!

Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.

Slashermcguirk

Why would met eireann get it so wrong when Ireland weather is their only focus

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is that their hourly forecast for your location.

Always overestimates high temperatures, knock 2-3°c minimum off every time it forecasts temperatures like that.

Paso Fino

Very hot and muggy when I was out at 8am - house is roasting, even with every window open - I need a fan!!

Danno

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Midnight radiosonde from Brest, NW France, shows a very strong cap above an elevated mixed layer. Plenty of CAPE there if it can be overcome, but a surface temperature of around 28 degrees would be needed to have a go at it. Most unstable layers are around 950 and 825 hPa.

Forecasts are for 28c in places today.

At 10am (9UTC) it was at 20.2c in Durrow with a wet bulb of 17.4c.

Some "popcorn" cloud about - similar to what was over Dublin last evening.

Also GL - you'll be glad to know I put out a spare MAX thermometer into direct sunlight this morning - just to see!