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Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

  • 24-06-2020 10:06pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    icon4.png



    Could be a memorable event tomorrow evening and overnight for many and deserves it's own thread.

    It should all kick off around early afternoon with elevated storms developing in the southeast, from then on the atmosphere gets ever more unstable and storms breaking out widely through the evening with increasing intensity leading to spectacular scenes for some.

    Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.

    We'll be keeping an eye on potential multi-cellular storm development too which is possible and could enhance conditions just about anywhere in the at risk zones.

    National warning is currently yellow

    Thursday evening until Friday sunrise are peak conditions

    icon4.pngicon4.png

    Areas most at risk:

    East Connaught, Leinster, Ulster and East Munster

    Warning of disruption:

    Lightning, flash flooding

    Irritant warning:

    "I can't sleep"

    Hot tomorrow in places with temperatures up to 28c, highest in the eastern half of the country.


    Keep an eye on the storm thread for more technical discussion

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058058601&page=114

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.

    ha! Yes :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,324 ✭✭✭ The One Doctor


    I would dearly love to see an MCS again. It's an awesome sight.

    Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog



    Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.

    :eek:





  • Registered Users Posts: 224 ✭✭ diceyd


    So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    This this evening's radiosonde from Brest, NW France, the source of tomorrow evening's airmass up along the east coast. Strongly capped, with no SBCAPE and only slight MUCAPE from around 850-900 hPa. Uplift from the upper trough will be needed to cool upper lapse rates and overcome the cap tomorrow.

    Surface dewpoints in the region are currently in the range 16-18 °C. I would say this will be the max we will acheive tomorrow too.

    7110_0_2006241706.png

    517664.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Things look to be a lot juicier by tomorrow evening.

    Quite the opportunity to exploit, very rarely do we get this potential.

    nmmuk-6-23-0.png?24-23

    21-109UK.GIF?24-18

    24-101UK.GIF?24-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Looks like mayo is going to miss all the “fun” !


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,193 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    diceyd wrote: »
    So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......

    And they knock out the satellite telly....?


  • Registered Users Posts: 292 ✭✭ chris2007


    Is Dublin in the firing line


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The next frame in the WRF MUCAPE map is completely off the wall and totally unrealistic.

    nmmuk-28-25-0_jwz3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    chris2007 wrote: »
    Is Dublin in the firing line

    Yes, very much so.

    With the hit and miss proviso given the nature of showery pulses. But you have a very big chance of seeing lightning either overhead or close at some point over the next 36 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,193 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    chris2007 wrote: »
    Is Dublin in the firing line

    Yep.

    But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,193 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    chris2007 wrote: »
    Is Dublin in the firing line

    Yep.

    But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 395 ✭✭ Class MayDresser


    Gonna miss Starlink launch so :-(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    nmmuk-6-26-0.png?24-23

    that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

    Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.

    Would you stop the thread was lit up here recently when the west had its own shows.

    Anyway this looks special, not the handful of sparks you had down there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Huge drops of rain in Kildare :O


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Gonzo wrote: »
    nmmuk-6-26-0.png?24-23

    that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

    Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.

    468n6e.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Just comparing those crazy WRF-005 charts with actual observations.

    There was a radiosonde launch fromo Cardington, near Stansted, at 21Z this evening (first plot). Second plot is the 18Z WRF forecast sounding for the same time.

    The WRF completely gets low-level moisture wrong, with dewpoint at least 5 degrees too high, and this is just a 4-hour forecast. It also gets the boundary layer temperature arseways, showing way too much cooling. Otherwise it gets upper levels fairly well, apart from missing out several moist layers at mid-levels.

    It would appear that this model, which is fed by the GFS, doesn't have a grip on the boundary layer conditions and is the reason why it's showing ridiculously high CAPE and LI values for tomorrow (and even this evening in much of central and NW England (shown below), where skies are clear. Use this model at your peril.

    3559_0_2006242106.png

    sondagewrf_300_123_3_0_1593040617.png

    517668.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 415 ✭✭ SlowMotion321


    sounds like it will be a fun show, we rarely get anything like that in the east, the only big storms i have seen were in other countries


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭ I says


    Will I leave the dog in or out so


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    I says wrote: »
    Will I leave the dog in or out so

    When?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭ I says


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    When?

    What’s that old wives tale about dogs and thunder and lightning storms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    UKMO forecast

    18z
    c0299d31d3867b3d1be659807ac1f995.png

    21z
    a92db5409c6378c21a1214fdb74e69dc.png

    Then by midnight in the Irish Sea

    a54217538e9cc87e8de1c0895ffc9011.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭ zisdead


    Estofex just out and has pretty much all of Leinster along with East Munster and East Ulster under a Level one for Severe thunderstorms

    http://www.estofex.org/

    "A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts."


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭ Nabber


    It's the sparks people really wann see tho

    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2020062606_202006250036_1_stormforecast.xml


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    A small storm getting going 100 miles west of Brest in north west France at the moment, sferics going - moisture moving up from Biscay.

    A good sign for instability for us later on.

    It will be a good start to the day in the eastern half of the country with beautiful sunshine and helping temperatures rise.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Stunning sunrise

    Met Eireann have really toned down the forecast for today and tonight. Honestly sounds like a downgrade.


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