Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread

Kermit.de.frog

Could be a memorable event tomorrow evening and overnight for many and deserves it's own thread.

It should all kick off around early afternoon with elevated storms developing in the southeast, from then on the atmosphere gets ever more unstable and storms breaking out widely through the evening with increasing intensity leading to spectacular scenes for some.

Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.

We'll be keeping an eye on potential multi-cellular storm development too which is possible and could enhance conditions just about anywhere in the at risk zones.

National warning is currently yellow

Thursday evening until Friday sunrise are peak conditions



Areas most at risk:

East Connaught, Leinster, Ulster and East Munster

Warning of disruption:

Lightning, flash flooding

Irritant warning:

"I can't sleep"

Hot tomorrow in places with temperatures up to 28c, highest in the eastern half of the country.


Keep an eye on the storm thread for more technical discussion

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058058601&page=114

munsterlegend

Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.

Kermit.de.frog

munsterlegend wrote: »

Kermit do you mean East Munster instead of West Munster? Would make more sense.

ha! Yes :pac:

The One Doctor

I would dearly love to see an MCS again. It's an awesome sight.

Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.

Kermit.de.frog

The One Doctor wrote: »

Fully prepared for this to be a total flop though.

:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwkwRQGbxyo

diceyd

So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......

Gaoth Laidir

This this evening's radiosonde from Brest, NW France, the source of tomorrow evening's airmass up along the east coast. Strongly capped, with no SBCAPE and only slight MUCAPE from around 850-900 hPa. Uplift from the upper trough will be needed to cool upper lapse rates and overcome the cap tomorrow.

Surface dewpoints in the region are currently in the range 16-18 °C. I would say this will be the max we will acheive tomorrow too.

Kermit.de.frog

Things look to be a lot juicier by tomorrow evening.

Quite the opportunity to exploit, very rarely do we get this potential.

km79

Looks like mayo is going to miss all the “fun” !

Larbre34

diceyd wrote: »

So Liverpool could be crowned champions tomorrow with thunderstorms outside, if Carlsberg did Thursdays.......

And they knock out the satellite telly....?

chris2007

Is Dublin in the firing line

Gaoth Laidir

The next frame in the WRF MUCAPE map is completely off the wall and totally unrealistic.

Kermit.de.frog

chris2007 wrote: »

Is Dublin in the firing line

Yes, very much so.

With the hit and miss proviso given the nature of showery pulses. But you have a very big chance of seeing lightning either overhead or close at some point over the next 36 hours.

Larbre34

chris2007 wrote: »

Is Dublin in the firing line

Yep.

But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.

Larbre34

chris2007 wrote: »

Is Dublin in the firing line

Yep.

But unlike anything else; snow, frontal rain, wind storms, a few kilometres either way could make a massive difference.

Class MayDresser

Gonna miss Starlink launch so :-(

Storm 10

Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.

Gonzo

that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.

sparrowcar

Storm 10 wrote: »

Jez lads if this was going to happen in the West we just get on with it, anything happening in the East goes into overdrive.

Would you stop the thread was lit up here recently when the west had its own shows.

Anyway this looks special, not the handful of sparks you had down there.

pad199207

Huge drops of rain in Kildare :O

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.

Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.

Gaoth Laidir

Just comparing those crazy WRF-005 charts with actual observations.

There was a radiosonde launch fromo Cardington, near Stansted, at 21Z this evening (first plot). Second plot is the 18Z WRF forecast sounding for the same time.

The WRF completely gets low-level moisture wrong, with dewpoint at least 5 degrees too high, and this is just a 4-hour forecast. It also gets the boundary layer temperature arseways, showing way too much cooling. Otherwise it gets upper levels fairly well, apart from missing out several moist layers at mid-levels.

It would appear that this model, which is fed by the GFS, doesn't have a grip on the boundary layer conditions and is the reason why it's showing ridiculously high CAPE and LI values for tomorrow (and even this evening in much of central and NW England (shown below), where skies are clear. Use this model at your peril.

SlowMotion321

sounds like it will be a fun show, we rarely get anything like that in the east, the only big storms i have seen were in other countries

I says

Will I leave the dog in or out so

JCX BXC

I says wrote: »

Will I leave the dog in or out so

When?

I says

JCX BXC wrote: »

When?

What’s that old wives tale about dogs and thunder and lightning storms.

Bsal

UKMO forecast

18z


21z


Then by midnight in the Irish Sea

zisdead

Estofex just out and has pretty much all of Leinster along with East Munster and East Ulster under a Level one for Severe thunderstorms

http://www.estofex.org/

"A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts."

Nabber

It's the sparks people really wann see tho

Kermit.de.frog

A small storm getting going 100 miles west of Brest in north west France at the moment, sferics going - moisture moving up from Biscay.

A good sign for instability for us later on.

It will be a good start to the day in the eastern half of the country with beautiful sunshine and helping temperatures rise.

pad199207

Stunning sunrise

Met Eireann have really toned down the forecast for today and tonight. Honestly sounds like a downgrade.

Humberto Salazar

Things not looking as good as yesterday. Ah well, twas ever thus.

Kermit.de.frog

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Things not looking as good as yesterday. Ah well, twas ever thus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESzxGYDkwG8

jimmynokia

This better happen I'm all set. On night shift tonight covering good area and mileage so fingers crossed cameras and dashcams at the ready.. Off to bed now.

Kermit.de.frog

On a serious note nothing has changed, no need to panic, ignore these Kildare people.

They always complaining.

It will be an interesting evening :cool:

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On a serious note nothing has changed, no need to panic, ignore these Kildare people.

They always complaining.

It will be an interesting evening :cool:

Lol always bickering. Think it’s being so close to Dublin that causes it

See what the morning models bring.

KingdomRushed

Sorry lads, I am on team downgrade too. I do not believe there will be exceptionally widespread storms today. Localised but not much different to last week.

Let's see

Kermit.de.frog

There is bit of deviation in the high res models but the closer to the east and also further north you are the better the chances. There is also a good prospect for those in the north midlands and up to the northwest of the country.

Ultimately it's a nowcast today and we will have to watch how it develops.

It will be interesting, that's for sure.

Humberto Salazar

Well, I've bought my ticket for the show like everyone else. But ME forecast has gone from 'will develop' yesterday to 'a risk of' this morning. That's a downgrade in their language. Also Ulster now mentioned as greatest risk. So, less widespread, & less risk. Now, having said that I'm still open to be convinced again. Have at it.

Kermit.de.frog

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Well, I've bought my ticket for the show like everyone else. But ME forecast has gone from 'will develop' yesterday to 'a risk of' this morning. That's a downgrade in their language. Also Ulster now mentioned as greatest risk. So, less widespread, & less risk. Now, having said that I'm still open to be convinced again. Have at it.

Where are you in the country broadly?

Kermit.de.frog

A thunderstorm has developed on the north Antrim coast and is ongoing. It shows instability is rising and we should see storms develop with reasonable ease by this evening in this air mass away from west and southwest coasts.

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where are you in the country broadly?

Offaly. So right in the sweet spot yesterday evening...

bazlers

Lets see what MT has to say this morning. Then we will know if its good night Irene:)

Kermit.de.frog

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Offaly. So right in the sweet spot yesterday evening...

It's important to note this is a "nowcast" from here, the models mean little now. You still have a good chance of a storm, just keep up to date with satellite/radar on here.

These setups always spring surprises too.

DOCARCH

Simple Minds playing on the radio atm....a sure sign! :pac:

Jin luk

Ive waited 26years for major storms like these are suppose to be to hit here at home in ireland really thought i missed out last week when tipp got the big 1s please let us have something special later.

Will take a lot to beat the storm i seen on the south east coast of spain last year was like strobe lighting that night.

M.T. Cranium

I'm as confused as anybody.

Lightning for Dublin around 02-04h possibly? Scattered storms in the southeast overnight.

Other cells that might be rather dormant moving into the midlands late afternoon erupting over west Ulster evening and overnight. I think those two clusters will be most significant, can't rule out activity further west.

Plenty of lightning at present time in northern Spain and some entrainment towards s.w. England past Brittany this morning. With the heat building over Britain potential looks reasonable, GFS rainfall accumulations support the overnight development idea.

Gaoth Laidir

The notable thing about elevated storms this evening - if you do manage to be lucky enough to be in the right place - will be the lack of thunder with a lot of the lightning, or just short distant rumbles. There will be some prime locations that will see action but there will also be those who will see nothing too, or only very briefly. We're not going to see wall-to-wall coverage covering the whole CAPE area.

Just to manage expectations. Hopefully everyone will get a share but I doubt it.

Rock Lesnar

BBC only going with with showers up along the east coast starting around 8pm, nothing much before that

Kermit.de.frog

bazlers wrote: »

Lets see what MT has to say this morning. Then we will know if its good night Irene:)

There is cross model agreement on thunderstorms moving south to north from later this afternoon. Exact locations (most likely in the east and north) remain to be determined but it's a 'now cast' from now on.

There are already storms developing in northern counties and just to northwest of France which is a good sign.

Sit back and enjoy.:)

Gaoth Laidir

ESTOFEX discussion.

A level 1 was issued across northern Spain and northern Portugal across the Bay of Biscay into the south-western British Isles mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
...

SYNOPSIS

A blocking ridge covers most of Europe, with a mid-level jet curving around it. A frontal zone extends from western Europe into Scandinavia and western Russia with some frontal waves embedded. Enhanced low-level moisture can be found close to these frontal waves especially across western Europe, central Scandinavia, and western/southern Russia. This moisture paerty overlaps with plumes of mid-level lapse rates across western Europe and central Scandinavia. A cut-off low is centred to the north of the Alps. A moist air mass across the Balkans and Poland is advected around the cut-off toards northern Germany.

DISCUSSION

Western Europe

Along the frontal zone with twi main frontal waves moving north, steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Elevated CAPE will be in the 1000 J/kg range and surface-based CAPE can develop during the day over the land. With moderate shear, multicells are forecast, capable of producing locally large hail and severe wind gusts. Over France, shear is weak, but increasing lift late in the period can result in storms spreading into the region with excessive rain the main threat, but some large hail is also not ruled out. Isolated storms are forecast across central Spain with large hail and severe wind gusts the main threat given moderate shear and inverted-v profiles.